Group 1 - The European Central Bank has decided to maintain interest rates, yet the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar, primarily due to the market interpreting the recent US-EU tariff agreement as a major concession from the Eurozone, which could have a substantial negative impact on its economy [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth in the first quarter showed slight acceleration, driven by increased investment and net exports, with investment contributing 0.3 percentage points and net exports contributing 1.07 percentage points to GDP, a reversal from negative contributions in the previous year [2] - The German Federal Senate has passed a reform bill that exempts defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP from debt brake restrictions, marking a shift from cautious fiscal policy to active expansion, which is expected to support economic growth in Germany and the Eurozone [2] Group 2 - The Eurozone faces significant challenges in relying on fiscal expansion for economic growth due to structural low-growth traps and deteriorating external conditions, with weak domestic demand and high pressure on exports to the US [3] - The recent US tariff policy is expected to have a more severe impact on the Eurozone economy than previously anticipated, with the weighted average tariff rate on EU exports to the US projected to rise from approximately 1.5% to 15.2%, potentially reducing economic growth by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points over the next year [5] - Concerns over tariff impacts have led to capital outflows from the Eurozone, despite a narrowing of the interest rate differential between the US and Eurozone, which typically would support the euro's value [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the Japanese stock market and the yen, highlighting that while the Nikkei 225 index has approached historical highs, the yen has depreciated significantly [3][9][71] - Since June, the Nikkei 225 has surged by 9.2%, with foreign capital inflows totaling $5.11 billion, while the yen has weakened by 2.4% during the same period [3][9][71] - The article notes that this divergence is not uncommon in Japan, as currency depreciation can improve corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [18][71] Group 2 - The article identifies low inflation expectations and a cooling of interest rate hike predictions as key factors contributing to the yen's weakness [32][72] - Japan's core CPI has been influenced more by imported factors, and inflation has consistently fallen short of expectations, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate hikes from 0.7 times to 0.6 times per year [32][72] - The article also mentions that unsuccessful trade negotiations between the US and Japan, along with political turmoil from recent Senate elections, have exacerbated the yen's weakness [4][41][72] Group 3 - Following the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have increased from 42.1% to 68.1% [5][51][72] - However, the article warns that insufficient inflation persistence may still hinder significant interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [5][51][72] - The focus moving forward will be on the upcoming leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and potential fiscal expansion, which could lead to concerns about a "debt and currency double whammy" [58][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their rebound. The main reasons are the clarification of the external environment and the intensification of anti - involution policies, leading to an "anti - involution trading" in the market [3]. - In the overseas market, the US employment market continues to improve, but high - interest rates still suppress housing demand. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI has reached a new high, and the European Central Bank has paused rate cuts. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU has passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. - In the domestic market, the LPR remained unchanged in July, but there is a possibility of a decline in the second half of the year. Anti - involution policies are intensifying, causing a rise in the prices of black - series commodities and most industrial products. However, there is a short - term risk of over - heating market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Impact Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rose, driven by a clearer external environment and anti - involution policies [3]. - **Overseas**: The US employment market improved, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000. US existing - home sales decreased by 2.7% in June. The eurozone's July composite PMI reached 51. The US reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and the EU passed a counter - measure list [3]. - **Domestic**: The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% in July, remaining unchanged. Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, but there is a short - term risk of over - heating sentiment [3]. - **Commodities Viewpoint**: Although market risk appetite has improved, attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - European negotiations. Market sentiment may gradually return to rationality under regulatory guidance [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Employment**: In the third week of July, the number of initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, and the increase in continuing jobless claims slowed down [3]. - **US Housing Market**: In June, the annualized total of existing - home sales was 3.93 million, a 2.7% month - on - month decline, the largest in nearly a year [3][9]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The July composite PMI reached 51, a new 11 - month high. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts after 8 consecutive cuts since June 2024 [3][14]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **LPR**: The LPR remained unchanged in July, but there may be a decline in the second half of the year if economic downward pressure increases [3][22]. - **Market Situation**: Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, with black - series commodities and most industrial products rising in price [3]. - **Agricultural and Energy Sectors**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal mine production inspections [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The PTA开工率 was 80.69% on July 25, and the POY开工率 was 86.8% [36]. - **Automobile Sales**: Data shows the trends of manufacturer wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [39]. - **Commodity Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are presented [44].

Election Results - The ruling coalition (LDP + Komeito) failed to secure a majority, holding 122 seats, 3 seats short of the majority line of 125 seats[9] - The opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Party for the People, increased their seats from 9 to 22, and the Sanseito party grew from 2 to 15 seats[10] Political Implications - Japan's political landscape has shifted to a more balanced power structure, making legislative processes more challenging as the ruling coalition must collaborate with opposition parties[15] - Prime Minister Ishihara's control is weakened, with a public support rate dropping to 20.8%, the lowest in history[15] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The ruling coalition shows a conservative inclination towards fiscal expansion, while opposition parties advocate for more aggressive measures like consumption tax cuts and increased social welfare[16] - The likelihood of significant fiscal policy changes is limited, with potential progress expected in 2026[16] Monetary Policy Impact - The impact on monetary policy is expected to be minimal, with the Bank of Japan likely to maintain its current stance until uncertainties regarding inflation and tariffs are resolved[20] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan may resume interest rate hikes in early 2026[20] Market Reactions - The risk of fiscal expansion has been priced in, leading to a stabilization of Japanese government bonds and the yen[28] - The global trend towards fiscal expansion is reinforced, with developed markets like the US, Europe, and Japan signaling marginal changes in fiscal policy in 2025[28]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 李欣越 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美日关税协议达成，发达市场多数上涨 发达市场延续上涨，焦煤大幅上行。 当周，标普500上涨1.5%，日经225上涨4.1%；10Y美债收益率下行 4.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.8%至97.67，离岸人民币升值至7.1681；WTI原油下跌3.2%至65.2美元/桶， COMEX黄金下跌0.6%至3329.1美元/盎司。 美国与日本、印尼、菲律宾三国敲定贸易协定。 日本方面，美国将对日本征收15%关税，低于此前威胁 的25%。日本承诺向美国投资5500 亿美元。印尼方面，美国将对印尼征收19%关税，低于此前威胁的 25%。菲律宾方面，美方将原定的20%关税降至19%。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI回落，欧央行维持利率不变。 美国7月Markit制造业PMI为49.5，市场预期 52.7，关税对于美国工业生产的扰动仍然存在。欧央行7月会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期，主因通胀 回到目标，经济表现符合预期。关注下周7月美联储FOMC例会。 风险提示 摘要 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of $38.94 per ounce, marking the second consecutive day of decrease, although the overall trend remains strong [1] - The anticipated tariff agreement between the EU and the US is expected to reduce the safe-haven demand for silver, while trade negotiations between China, India, South Korea, and the US continue [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have eased, further diminishing the demand for silver [1] Group 2 - The UK government recorded its second-highest monthly borrowing since 1993 in June, driven by debt interest pressures from inflation, which may lead to increased taxes in the autumn budget, posing risks to economic growth [2] - Despite these challenges, the British pound remains favored in the market due to expectations that the Bank of England will initiate a rate cut cycle in August, with several institutions predicting a 25 basis point reduction [2] - The US dollar showed little reaction to the trade agreement with Japan, with the dollar index hovering around 97.45, close to a two-week low, as the market awaits the release of the US July PMI data [2] Group 3 - Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have gained international attention, with a brief meeting in Istanbul yielding some progress on prisoner exchanges, but significant divisions remain on key issues like ceasefire conditions [3] - The likelihood of an EU-US trade agreement before the August 1 deadline appears slim, increasing investor caution amid widespread trade tensions, which continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal [3] - The average effective tariff rate in the US has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, contributing to a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in June, raising concerns about inflation and economic growth prospects [3] Group 4 - The recent agreement between the US and Japan, along with the nearing 15% tariff agreement between the US and EU, has led to a cooling of domestic commodity sentiment, with silver prices experiencing fluctuations [4] - Despite the cooling sentiment, silver prices still show support, indicating a generally strong outlook, with specific trading ranges suggested for silver operations [4] - The market is advised to be cautious with bullish positions on silver, particularly around the $39.5 resistance level, while monitoring key support levels [4]

认为下次加息在10月的受访者比例从30%微升至32%，预计1月行动的比例也从34%小幅增至36%。总体来看，近80%的受访者预计明年1月前会有动作。 调查显示，所有56位经济学家均预测行长植田和男领导的政策委员会将在7月31日结束的为期两天的会议上维持基准利率0.5%不变。 根据在美国总统特朗普宣布美日贸易协议前进行的调查，日本央行观察人士普遍预计当局将在10月或1月上调基准利率。 随着关税前景明朗，下周日本央行会议焦点将转向季度经济展望报告。鉴于今年通胀率持续保持在3%及以上，市场普遍预期央行将上调物价展望，并修正 物价增长风险平衡评估。 凯投宏观亚太区主管马塞尔.蒂利安特指出："通胀远超日本央行5月预测。尽管需要上调本财年通胀预期，但关键在于是否维持2026财年的悲观预测，并仍 认为存在下行风险。" 植田和男主持政策辩论之际，石破茂领导的自民党在周日参议院选举中遭遇历史性挫败，导致执政联盟在参众两院均失去多数席位。 没有受访者认为选举结果会促使提前加息。约35%认为会推迟加息，近同等比例认为属中性因素。 10月和1月仍是日本央行加息的最佳时机 特朗普宣布将日本商品的全面关税税率设定为15%，低于原定8月1 ...

在7月20日举行的日本第27届参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党构成的执政联盟失去了参议院过半数议 席，仅获得46席，即便加上非改选议席，总计也只有121席，未达到参议院248个总议席过半所需的124 席。这是自民党自1955年成立以来，首次在国会众参两院都未能占据过半数席位。 尽管日本首相石破茂表达了继续执政的意愿，但鉴于执政联盟缺乏多数席位，若不与一个或多个在野党 合作，其政策将很难维持连贯性，这对日本经济极为不利。尤为关键的是，新一届政府在对美贸易谈判 方面将会遭遇波折，或难以说服足够数量的立法者支持其与美国达成的任何协议，特别是当该协议涉及 农业或汽车等敏感领域的让步时。 7月21日，日本股市因假日休市。当日，日元对美元盘初一度上涨0.7%，最高涨至147.79，不过随后回 吐部分涨幅至148.48，之后再度拉升至147.80附近，充分体现出政治不确定性对日元走势造成的影响。 经历了4月的大幅下跌行情后，日本股市出现了显著回升的态势。特别是在7月22日，日经225指数相较 于4月所创下的低点大幅反弹了29%。然而，目前日本股市的涨势已趋于缓和，正处于新一轮行情走向 的关键节点。 一方面，海外资金持续不断地 ...

日本央行副行长内田真一：财政扩张可能会支撑经济。 ...