智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，当前美债市场处于数据韧性、财政忧虑与地缘风险的多 重博弈中，建议采取"短久期核心+陡峭化卫星"配置，核心持仓聚焦3-5年期投资级债券，获取相对稳健 票息收益抵御短期波动，同时严控10年期以上美债敞口，规避财政扩张引致的长端利率上行风险。 从近期走势来看美元指数(DXY)本周基本持平，从上周低点反弹了约1.6%，但在过去12个月中仍下跌了 近10%，整体弱势格局未变。在公司债市场，衡量风险的信用利差已从近期的低点有所上升，表明风险 定价更为谨慎，但相比一年来的高点仍处于更健康水平，反映出市场情绪虽有所降温，却远未到恐慌的 程度。 市场焦点转向本周即将公布的CPI与非农就业数据 美国1月ISM数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改善 本周金融市场聚焦推迟发布的1月非农和CPI数据。非农就业市场预计新增6万人(前值5万)，失业率预计 将持稳4.4%，但上周公布的ADP就业数据仅新增2.2万个岗位，远低于预期，显示劳动力市场仍处"低招 聘、低裁员"的停滞状态。此外，本次非农报告将包含年度就业数据修正，若历史数据下修，可能进一 步影响市场对美联储政策的预期。C ...

Jefferies的Mohit Kumar在一份报告中称，日本首相高市早苗的压倒性胜利对于日本推出更多财政刺激措 施应是利好。这位全球经济学家表示："我们可能会看到政策重点将是财政扩张和增长政策。"Kumar 说，这应该对股市有利，特别是对那些将受益于侧重自力更生的板块，如国防、科技和半导体。他表 示，与此同时，由于将实施财政扩张政策，该选举结果可能会对日本政府债券收益率曲线的长端构成利 空。 责任编辑：何云 Jefferies的Mohit Kumar在一份报告中称，日本首相高市早苗的压倒性胜利对于日本推出更多财政刺激措 施应是利好。这位全球经济学家表示："我们可能会看到政策重点将是财政扩张和增长政策。"Kumar 说，这应该对股市有利，特别是对那些将受益于侧重自力更生的板块，如国防、科技和半导体。他表 示，与此同时，由于将实施财政扩张政策，该选举结果可能会对日本政府债券收益率曲线的长端构成利 空。 责任编辑：何云 ...

Group 1 - The analysis from Nomura Securities indicates that rising US Treasury yields and a weak yen will compel the Kishida administration to shift its policy focus from "old Kishida trade" of fiscal expansion and a weak yen to "new Kishida trade" emphasizing structural and regulatory reforms [1][5] - Following the recent elections, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin gained a majority, leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index, which surpassed 57,000 points for the first time in history [3][4] - The real estate sector led the gains in the Nikkei index, with a rise of over 7%, while companies like CyberAgent Inc. and Advantest saw substantial stock price increases of over 16% and 12%, respectively [3][4] Group 2 - Investment institutions are optimistic about sectors such as defense, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, which are expected to benefit significantly from Kishida's increased investments in these areas [5][6] - The yen has faced significant depreciation, dropping approximately 6% against the dollar and reaching historical lows against the euro and Swiss franc, which has raised concerns about potential currency intervention [5][7] - Analysts express skepticism about Japanese government bonds, particularly long-term bonds, due to fiscal concerns, although recent yield increases have made them more attractive to some investors [5][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent election victory of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has led to increased pressure on the Japanese yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to signal heightened vigilance to stabilize market expectations regarding fiscal expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Election Impact and Market Reaction - The direct trigger for the yen's depreciation was the policy expectation shift following Takashi's clear electoral victory, which is anticipated to lead to more aggressive fiscal spending [2]. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Takashi, secured 316 out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, marking the largest victory for a single party in post-war Japan [2]. - Takashi's post-election comments about potentially suspending the food sales tax for two years have raised concerns about fiscal health, further pressuring the yen and Japanese government bonds [2]. Group 2: Official Statements and Market Communication - Atsushi Mimura emphasized the government's ongoing commitment to monitor market movements with urgency and maintain open communication with the market [3]. - Satsuki Katayama's remarks included a warning about the potential for decisive measures, including intervention, in response to rapid fluctuations in the yen's value [3]. Group 3: US-Japan Coordination and Intervention Strategies - Katayama highlighted the importance of coordination with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, framing the responsibility for stabilizing the USD/JPY exchange rate as a shared obligation [4]. - Previous volatility in the yen was initially perceived as a potential intervention by Tokyo, but was later attributed to U.S. interest rate checks, indicating a complex interplay between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Fiscal Sustainability - As the yen weakened, Japanese stock markets and benchmark government bond yields rose, indicating a rapid reassessment of growth, inflation, and fiscal expansion expectations [5]. - Katayama reassured that the Takashi administration is focused on fiscal sustainability and will carefully monitor financial markets, with investors keenly observing the implementation of fiscal stimulus commitments and tax policy discussions [5].

原日本央行官员、现任东京乐天证券经济研究所首席经济学家 Nobuyasu Atago 表示，"获得市场信心的挑战依然存在，""高市政权如何应对市场从周一开始 通过日元贬值和利率上升发出的警告，将至关重要。" 智通财经APP注意到，这场出人意料的压倒性胜利，让这位坚定的保守派能够实现其愿景——即打造一个更加强力、敢于发声且自给自足的日本。她可以强 化日本军事实力，进一步向美国靠拢，加大战略投资，向企业施压以提高工资，并促使央行在加息前三思而后行。 由于她领导的自民党(LDP)控制着国会三分之二的席位，高市在增加国防开支和削减食品消费税方面将拥有更大的自由度，尽管她此前曾誓言要在财政上负 责。她现在的主要阻力可能并非来自国会，而是来自市场。 回溯去年10月，高市早苗还曾为在国会中争取足够席位以出任首相而苦苦挣扎。而现在，她拥有了二战以来日本领导人中所获得的最大选举授权。 在投资者消化这一影响之际，高市早苗可以尽情享受这一历史性壮举。就在几周前，这场选举赌博看起来还风险重重。从多方面来看，高市非同寻常的胜利 反映了日本及世界的变迁。俄乌冲突、以及美国总统特朗普作为盟友的不确定性，都造成了一种不安感，使得1.24亿日 ...

最新一轮债券发行之际，有迹象表明高市早苗的公众支持率依然稳固，而新的反对派联盟却难以引起选 民的共鸣。周末的民意调查显示，这使得执政党有望在选举中获得绝对多数席位。 智通财经APP获悉，日本30年期国债拍卖需求强劲，推动其价格上涨，缓解了人们对周末的参议院选举 的担忧。周四，日本财政部债券拍卖的认购倍数较上月有所上升，导致30年期日本国债收益率一度下跌 7个基点至3.565%。长期限国债普遍受到买盘支撑，其中40年期日本国债收益率下跌9.5个基点至 3.845%。在最近一次债券发行中，认购倍数为 3.64，高于上一次拍卖的 3.14 和 12 个月的平均水平 3.35。 三菱日联摩根士丹利证券的固定收益策略师Kazuya Fujiwara表示："尽管对财政扩张的担忧使得大选投 票前购买变得有些困难，但由于收益率高，许多投资者可能仍然想要购买。" 有迹象表明，政治不确定性消除后，需求可能会增加。明治安田生命保险公司表示，日本超长期政府债 券提供了诱人的投资机会，该公司正在寻找合适的买入时机。 据瑞穗银行策略师称，投资者可能会在本周末的提前大选后重返期限较长的日本国债市场，而大型资产 管理机构认为，10年期日本国 ...

进一步加剧不确定性的是日元疲软。在高市早苗近期强调弱势日元带来益处之后，日元走势再次成为市场焦点。对冲基金正重新建立做空日元的头寸，在周 末众议院选举投票前押注日元再度走弱。 Markets Live策略师Mark Cranfield表示："日本国债交易员在周四30年期国债拍卖前本就情绪紧张，而德国国债收益率的攀升令情况雪上加霜。对于日本投资 者而言，时机颇为尴尬，因为德国长期国债收益率正触及2011年以来的高位。德国政府大举支出的动态，将在日本国债投资者中引发共鸣。" 周日的选举结果也可能影响日本央行未来的利率决策，因为高市早苗以支持货币宽松立场而闻名。日本央行1月会议的意见摘要显示，随着日元疲软对通胀 造成影响，央行内部对"及时加息必要性"的认识正在增强。 交易员正密切关注周四日本30年期国债拍卖中是否会出现需求疲软的迹象，而这场拍卖距离周日备受关注的众议院选举仅有数日之隔。在本周稍早进行的一 次日本10年期国债拍卖中，投标者因财政问题而表现谨慎，这也使得周四的拍卖再次成为对投资者长期债券需求意愿的考验。 瑞穗证券东京首席交易台策略师Shoki Omori表示："在财政扩张预期以及政治日程的背景下，超长期 ...

（一） 股指期现货市场表现 表 1：股指期现货市场表现 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 金融研究 | | 市场表现：2 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.85%，报收 4 4102.2 | 点；深成指 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上涨 0.21%，报收 14156.27 点；创业板指下跌 0.4%，报收 3311.51 点；科创 50 指数下跌 | 1.2%， | | | 报收 1453.48 点。市场成交 25,033 亿元，较前日减少 624 亿元。行业板块方面，煤炭(+7.58%)，建 | | | | 筑材料(+3.48%)，房地产(+2.97%)涨幅居前；传媒(-3.12%)，通信(-2.73%)，计算机(-1.7%)跌幅居 | | | | 前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,252/95/2,126。沪深两市，机构、主力、 | | | | 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-326、-265、186、406 亿元，分别变动-431、-177、+362、+247 | | | 股指期货 | 亿元。 | | | | 基差：IM、IC ...

金融研究 2026年2月4日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：2 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 1.29%，报收 点；深成指 3 4067.74 | | --- | --- | | | 上涨 2.19%，报收 14127.11 点；创业板指上涨 1.86%，报收 3324.89 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， | | | 报收 1471.07 点。市场成交 25,656 亿元，较前日减少 410 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+5.63%)，国 | | | 防军工(+4.42%)，机械设备(+3.98%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.85%)，非银金融(+0.17%)，煤炭(+0.38%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,852/91/529。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 105、-89、-176、159 亿元，分别变动+489、+67、-398、 | | 股指期货 | -159 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 26.1、4.7、7.11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fiscal situation in 2025 presents challenges that will continue into 2026. Greater fiscal expansion is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the fiscal policy. If government bond supply does not significantly exceed expectations, fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2026 are expected to remain under pressure [1][5][25] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Fiscal Revenue in 2025 - Fiscal revenue growth was -1.7% in 2025, still lower than the budgeted 0.1%, indicating continued pressure on fiscal revenue. Non-tax revenue growth slowed down, with a year-on-year decline of 11.3%, while tax revenue growth increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Some taxes, such as personal income tax (up 11.5% year-on-year) and stamp duty (up 24.6% year-on-year), showed significant growth, but whether this high growth can continue in 2026 remains to be seen. Some tax growth may improve in 2026. Export tax rebates and value-added and consumption taxes on imported goods dragged down the tax growth rate in 2025 by -1.2% and -0.5% respectively, but these are expected to improve in 2026. Government fund revenue continued to face pressure, with an actual growth rate of -7.0% in 2025 [2] - The overall revenue of the first and second accounts fell short of expectations in 2025. The budgeted growth rate of fiscal revenue was 0.1%, while the actual growth rate was -1.7%. The budgeted growth rate of government fund revenue was 0.7%, and the actual growth rate was -7.0% [8] Fiscal Expenditure in 2025 - The fiscal expenditure rhythm was slow, and the growth rate was lower than the budget. The actual growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 1.0%, compared with the budgeted 4.4%. The actual growth rate of government fund expenditure was 11.3%, compared with the budgeted 23.1% [3] - The pressure of rigid expenditure increased, and the growth rate of infrastructure expenditure slowed down significantly. The overall fiscal expenditure increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while social, scientific, cultural, and educational expenditures increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and debt interest payments increased by 4.8% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the overall fiscal expenditure growth rate. Infrastructure expenditure decreased by 6.6% year-on-year [3] - The actual deficit increased moderately, and the scale of carry - over and surplus funds changed little compared with the previous year. The actual fiscal deficit in 2025 was 7.14 trillion yuan, accounting for 5.1% of GDP, with the actual deficit rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous year, significantly lower than the increase in the budgeted deficit rate from 3% to 4%. The estimated balance of the first account was about 580.5 billion yuan, with a small increase compared with previous years. The balance of the second account was about 683.0 billion yuan, a slight decrease from 962.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [4] Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal challenges remain in 2026, and greater fiscal expansion is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the overall fiscal policy. If the budgeted deficit rate in 2026 is 4%, with about 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds and 4.5 trillion yuan in special bonds, and assuming an additional 50 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for capital replenishment, the expected increase in government bonds this year is 1 trillion yuan, a decrease from 2.9 trillion yuan in 2025, which will limit the scope of fiscal policy implementation in 2026 [5]