Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a strong bullish outlook on silver prices, predicting a rise from the current level of 46 to a range of 40-50, with a potential increase of around 10% [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The expectation of interest rate cuts is a key driver for rising gold and silver prices, influenced by a cooling job market and increasing unemployment rates in the U.S. [5][6]. - The current federal benchmark interest rate is still above the neutral rate, suggesting that a reduction is necessary to stimulate the economy, with anticipated cuts exceeding expectations next year [6]. - Global fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish environment for gold, as major economies face increasing government debt and deficit concerns [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Speculative funds entering the market are significantly impacting gold prices, with a shift from a drag to a boost in price momentum as market sentiment improves [11][12]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could reach 4,200 USD/oz by mid-next year, driven by continued demand from central banks and speculative investors [13]. Group 3: Historical Context - The relationship between gold prices and changes in the global monetary system is highlighted, with past transitions leading to significant price increases [14]. - The current challenges to the dollar-based monetary system are prompting a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [15]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, reversing previous trends of reduction, which is expected to support higher gold prices [17][18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with central banks viewing gold as a key asset in their reserves [20][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as supply chain disruptions and sanctions, are driving demand for precious metals, particularly silver, which has both safe-haven and industrial properties [32][33]. Group 6: Silver Market Specifics - Industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to require over 50,000 tons annually due to increased solar installations [35]. - Supply constraints are evident, with global silver production projected to decline by 1.3% in 2024 due to mine closures and strikes [36]. - Market sentiment is shifting positively, with significant inflows into silver ETFs and increased physical demand, indicating a robust investment environment [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - Since late August, the gold market has seen a significant increase, with London gold spot prices rising over 10% [2] - Short-term gold prices are not expected to peak, with projections of reaching $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively [2][13] - The main drivers for the current gold price increase include rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets, and a return of speculative funds [2][6][11] Short-term Gold Price Outlook - The rapid rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the worsening U.S. employment situation, which has heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][7] - The current federal benchmark interest rate remains above the neutral rate, suggesting that further cuts are likely to stimulate the economy [7] - Fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as global economies face increased concerns over long-term debt supply and inflation resilience [11][13] Long-term Gold Price Position - Long-term gold prices may potentially exceed $10,000 per ounce, influenced by changes in the global monetary system and central bank gold purchases [3][20] - Two scenarios are proposed for long-term gold price projections: one where emerging market central banks increase gold holdings significantly, and another where a continued decline of the dollar leads to a substantial rise in gold demand [20][31] - Historical trends show that gold prices have risen significantly during periods of monetary system changes, with past increases exceeding 1800% during the 1970s [14][17] Shanghai Gold Price Lag - Recent domestic gold price increases have lagged behind those in Europe and the U.S., primarily due to the concentration of price rises during European and U.S. trading hours [4][34] - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan has also pressured Shanghai gold prices, as it reduces the price differential with overseas gold [37] - A rising risk appetite in domestic markets has led to a shift of funds from gold to equities and commodities, further suppressing Shanghai gold price increases [39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to reach $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively, driven by rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion, and increased demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedges [1] - The deterioration of U.S. non-farm employment has led to a rapid increase in market expectations for Fed rate cuts, with anticipated cuts exceeding expectations next year from a neutral interest rate perspective [1] - Global fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as concerns about long-term debt supply and inflation resilience grow, alongside increasing U.S. debt and deficits [1] Group 2 - Speculative funds entering the market are a significant driver of gold prices, with recent shifts in speculative positions turning from a drag to a boost, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment towards gold [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which includes 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry chain [1] - The index focuses on small to mid-cap stocks with significant leading effects, emphasizing high-quality enterprises within the gold industry chain, characterized by high industry concentration and comprehensive coverage of the industry chain [1]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In August, general public budget revenue growth was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening fiscal expansion[4] - August public budget expenditure growth was 0.8%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year[6] - Government fund revenue in August fell by 6.0%, a significant drop of 15.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining land transfer income[7] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, influenced more by risk appetite and trading behavior rather than fundamental economic data[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may support a strong performance in the U.S. stock market[2][17] - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 3800, with TMT sectors showing strong performance while dividend-paying sectors lag behind[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in the fourth quarter remains uncertain, particularly in the real estate, manufacturing, and consumption sectors[10] - The ongoing liquidity environment and fiscal expansion are expected to provide a basic support for the equity market, especially benefiting small-cap stocks[11][21] - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and tax reduction policies may further bolster the U.S. economy, leading to a continued strong performance in the stock market[21]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is drawing significant attention from financial and capital markets, with varying predictions on market impacts depending on the candidates' economic policies [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Among the candidates, Takashi Kawai is noted for his strong fiscal expansion and monetary easing stance, with predictions suggesting that if he wins, the Nikkei average could rise to around 48,000 points by year-end [2][5]. - Shunichi Suzuki, representing a continuation of the current government's fiscal tightening policies, is perceived as lacking the ability to drive overall market growth, leading to expectations of a slight market adjustment if he wins [4][7]. - Yoshihide Suga's policies are expected to maintain the status quo, with limited impact on market fluctuations if he is elected [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Kawai's victory, with short-term foreign capital inflows boosting related stocks, indicating a strong correlation between candidate selection and market performance [5][8]. - In the foreign exchange market, there is a consensus that Kawai's election would not hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, with expectations for the yen to appreciate towards 145 yen per dollar [4][7]. - Conversely, if Suzuki wins, the yen may depreciate by approximately 2 yen against the dollar, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy direction [7]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Kawai's economic policies emphasize growth through advanced technologies and tax revenue increases, while also showing signs of pragmatic adjustments, such as reconsidering previous tax reduction proposals [7][8]. - Concerns about fiscal deterioration are prevalent, with predictions that the 30-year government bond yield could drop to around 3% from its current level of approximately 3.2% [4][7]. - The upcoming election is expected to be more dynamic than in 2024, with a smaller candidate pool allowing for more in-depth discussions, potentially exposing weaknesses in candidates like Suzuki [8].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4 is drawing significant attention from investors, particularly regarding the policy positions of the five candidates, with Sanae Takaichi being identified as the most likely to cause market volatility [1][7]. Candidate Policy Positions - There are notable divergences among the candidates regarding tax policies, monetary policies, and fiscal directions, with Takaichi seen as a potential catalyst for market fluctuations [1]. - Takaichi's victory could lead to significant impacts on the yen and Japanese government bond markets, as she prioritizes debt-to-GDP ratios over strict fiscal discipline, which may raise expectations for fiscal expansion [1][8]. - In contrast, candidates Shinjiro Koizumi and Yoshimasa Hayashi are expected to maintain continuity in policies, while Takayuki Kobayashi is the only candidate who has not ruled out consumption tax cuts, which could strengthen the yen if he wins [1][4]. Market Reactions - Current market participants are in a wait-and-see mode, with low volatility in the dollar-yen options market, attributed to lessons learned from previous elections and the difficulty in predicting outcomes due to a lack of voting intention information [8]. - If Takaichi wins, it is anticipated to trigger significant market reactions, including a weaker yen and a steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve [8]. - The potential victory of Koizumi or Hayashi may lead to a mild strengthening of the yen and a flattening of the yield curve, but overall market reactions are expected to be subdued due to a lack of change in outlook [8]. Upcoming Events - Several public debates and policy speeches are scheduled in the next two weeks, culminating in a vote that ends on October 3, followed by the official election on October 4 [6].

| 贵金属日评20250922: 多国财政扩张和地缘政治风险支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-19 | 2025-09-15 | 收盘价 | 830. 56 | 831.60 | 6. 46 | -1. 04 | 824.10 | | | | | 成交量 | 210003.00 | 192704.00 | 131159.00 | 17, 299.00 | 78. 844. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持合量 | 152. 446. 00 | 240177.00 | 87731.00 | 135,828.00 | 104349.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 57429.00 | 56430.00 | 53226.00 | 999. 00 | 4, 203.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | ...

Market Performance - On September 19, the four major A-share indices pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% at 3820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04% at 13070.86 points, the ChiNext Index down 0.16% at 3091 points, and the STAR 50 Index down 1.28% at 1362.65 points. Market turnover was 23,494 billion yuan, a decrease of 8,172 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) led the gains, while automobiles (-1.94%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (-1.41%), and computers (-1.26%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,909/115/3,403 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -206, -225, 18, and 414 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +126, +203, -94, and -235 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 94.39, 65.35, 14.92, and -3.46 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -21.15%, -15.19%, -5.52%, and 1.98% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 8%, 19%, and 71% respectively [3]. Trading Strategy - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On September 19, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.407, up 3.72 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.585, up 4.42 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.796, up 4.55 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.2, up 1.97 bps [3]. Cash Bond and Related Data - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.46%; for the five - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.015, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the ten - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.013, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the thirty - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.306, and an IRR of 0.55% [4]. Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,543 billion yuan and withdrew 2,300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 1,243 billion yuan [4]. Trading Strategy - Short - term is bullish, and the implied interest rate of 2.2 for ultra - long bonds has sufficient cost - effectiveness; in the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10].

Core Viewpoint - The timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not be delayed due to potential political changes, with indications that a hike could occur as early as October, regardless of the outcome of the ruling party leadership election [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - Tomoyuki Shimoda emphasizes that the upcoming results of the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, including the potential victory of Sanae Takaichi, will have limited actual impact on Japan's monetary policy [2]. - The environment for interest rate hikes is forming, driven by robust corporate profits, structural labor shortages leading to wage increases, and rising food costs, which collectively keep inflation elevated [2]. - Key indicators for the Bank of Japan's decision in October include the "Tankan" business sentiment survey data to be released on October 1 and the stability of the stock market [2]. Group 2: Political Implications - Sanae Takaichi is known for advocating a dual stimulus approach reminiscent of "Abenomics" and openly opposes interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3]. - There are doubts about Takaichi's ability to implement policies that could weaken the yen, which, while beneficial for exports, would increase import costs and exacerbate inflation, a politically sensitive issue in Japan [3]. - The current political uncertainty may increase the likelihood of delaying interest rate hikes, as the new prime minister is expected to maintain a stance of fiscal expansion, particularly if Takaichi is elected [4]. Group 3: Market Divergence and Policy Dynamics - There is a divergence in the market regarding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next action, with most economists expecting a 25 basis point hike before the end of the year, but opinions vary on whether this will occur in October or January [4]. - The political transition period in Japan is expected to be filled with uncertainty, balancing the potential for fiscal expansion from a new government against the Bank of Japan's tightening needs due to inflation pressures [4]. - This complex interplay between fiscal and monetary policy may lead to upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate its first rate cut of the year next week, with expectations of further reductions throughout 2024. However, the real challenge will arise in 2026 due to a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy, a dovish new chair, and AI-driven productivity gains potentially reviving inflation expectations and asset bubbles [2] - The labor market is expected to soften, with indicators showing a rise in unemployment, a decrease in job vacancies, and a cooling turnover rate. This will prompt the Fed to adjust policy rates towards a neutral level of approximately 3% [3] - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face multiple challenges, including potential fiscal expansion regardless of election outcomes, which may lead to increased deficits and fiscal stimulus by 2026 [4] Group 2 - The market has priced in a dovish outlook for a potential new chair, with expectations for terminal rates significantly lower than historical averages and a reduced likelihood of rate hikes [5] - The potential for AI to enhance productivity has raised the estimated GDP growth rate to 2.25%, with further increases possible as AI applications become more widespread [6] - Financial conditions have already loosened, with the financial conditions index in the U.S. having declined by 75 basis points since June, indicating that the market has effectively absorbed some of the Fed's easing [6] Group 3 - High inflation expectations may lead to a resurgence in economic growth without a recession by 2026, benefiting real assets such as commodities, real estate, and infrastructure, as well as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [7] - The stock market may continue to benefit from loose liquidity, but its high valuations make it more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, potentially increasing volatility [7] Group 4 - Investors are advised to increase allocations to real assets and short-duration inflation-linked bonds to hedge against rising inflation premiums [8] - Attention should be given to sectors that directly benefit from fiscal stimulus, including green infrastructure, traditional energy, defense, and AI computing hardware [8] - A tactical approach is recommended for long-duration growth stocks, avoiding excessive chasing after rates drop to 3% [9] - Option strategies may be employed to hedge against potential volatility arising from a dovish chair and fiscal expansion [9] Group 5 - In the early stages of the rate-cutting cycle, the market can follow the Fed's easing pace. However, as rates approach neutral levels, new variables in fiscal policy, technology, and political appointments will complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] - Identifying and positioning in real assets and inflation protection tools may be crucial for navigating the complexities ahead [10]