1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]

日本超长期国债收益率自10月底以来持续上扬，原因是日本首相高市早苗的经济刺激计划加剧了市场对 日本公共财政受损的担忧。12月16日，日本国会批准了2025财年(2025年4月至2026年3月)补充预算案， 财政支出规模高达18.3万亿日元，号称疫情后最大规模。这一预算案以应对物价上涨、促进经济增长为 名，其中的11.7万亿日元将通过新发行国债来筹措。 与此同时，周五，日本政府在阁僚会议上敲定了2026财年预算，一般会计预算总额约为122.3092万亿日 元。这一规模超过2025财年的约115万亿日元，刷新历史最高纪录。 在当前债务高企且日本央行正推进加息的情况下，日本政府仍施行扩张性财政政策引发了对财政可持续 性的担忧。日本财务省此前预计，日本10年期国债收益率到2028年将升至2.5%，债务利息将从去年的 7.9万亿日元增加到2028年的16.1万亿日元。而根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，2025年日本政府债 务总额预计将达到其国内生产总值(GDP)的229.6%，在发达国家中高居榜首。 值得一提的是，市场因通胀预期上升和日元贬值压力加剧预计日本央行可能被迫更激进加息，导致周四 举行的日本2年期国债拍 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in silver prices, with Shanghai silver reaching a historical high of over 18,000 CNY per kilogram, reflecting an increase of nearly 5% [1] - The National Fund of China has announced a limit on the investment amount for its silver fund to 100 CNY starting December 29, down from a previous limit of 500 CNY, to manage arbitrage funds and mitigate premium risks [3] - The silver fund's secondary market price was reported at 2.804 CNY, which is 45% higher than the net asset value of 1.9278 CNY as of December 24, indicating a significant premium [3][5] Group 2 - The silver fund has reached its physical limit for capacity due to regulatory constraints on trading positions and public offerings, necessitating the investment limit as a compliance measure rather than a subjective choice [6] - The fund's trading price has shown a premium rate of 44.02%, with a trading volume of 2.7956 million hands and a total transaction amount of 809 million CNY [5][6]

一份文件透露，日本首相高市早苗领导的内阁计划公布一份始于明年4月的财政年度初始预算，其规模 将创历史新高，支出增幅超过通胀增速。 高市早苗周四表示，2026年4月开始的财年预算总额约为122.3万亿日元(合7860亿美元)，比本财年已拨 付的115.2万亿日元增加约6.3%，创下史上最大的初始预算纪录。 高市早苗称，为帮助筹措支出所需资金，政府计划通过新发国债筹集约29.6万亿日元。她补充道，预算 对发债的依赖度将从本年度的24.9%降至24.2%。 首相在与执政党及内阁成员的会议结束时表示："我相信这份预算在强化经济和确保财政可持续性之间 取得了平衡。" 预算规模创纪录之际，日本持续通胀导致各领域成本不断上升。日本的关键物价指标三年来始终保持在 2%或更高水平，从人工成本到日用品支出全面上涨。 预算增幅远高于通胀率，原因是日本面临人口老龄化带来的社会保障支出需求不断增长。根据透露的文 件，社会保障支出将从本财年的38.3万亿日元增至39.1万亿日元。更高的国防支出也推高了总体预算需 求，反映出人口结构压力和地缘政治紧张局势的加剧。 创纪录的初始预算也反映出高市早苗动用财政支持以巩固经济增长的意愿。她的政府上 ...

乐天证券经济研究所的所长爱宕伸康认为，2026年的日本经济将"继续温和扩大"。他分析 称："在就业环境未恶化且名义工资上涨的情况下，此前日本经济从未陷入过衰退"。他同时 补充道："风险在于财政支出扩大带来的长期利率上升和日元贬值，以及美国股市的调整"。 与会者对财政和货币政策对市场的影响表现出高度关注。2026年度政府预算案的一般会计总 额预计将超过120万亿日元，创历史新高。另一方面，日本银行（央行）已将政策利率上调至 0.75％，这是30年来的最高水平，作为长期利率指标的新发行10年期国债收益率已超过 2％。 摩根大通证券的首席经济学家藤田亚矢子表示："物价上涨问题本来应该由日银通过政策利率 来应对，现在却要以财政手段来解决，当前正面临这样做是否妥当的考验"。她担忧地表 示："如果财政扩张和货币政策调整滞后的情况叠加在一起，市场发生动荡的风险将加大"。 高市早苗强调："当下日本所需的是以负责任的积极财政来增强国力，现在不开始行动就来不 及了"。她解释说，企业收益改善将带动加薪，消费也会增加，形成良性循环。她同时 称："从长远来看，能够实现不提高税率也能增加税收的局面，才是负责任的积极财政"。 筒井义信在致 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the global economic landscape, particularly focusing on the implications of de-globalization and the dollar crisis on commodity supply and demand dynamics. The analysis draws parallels between the economic conditions of 2026 and 1978, particularly in the context of the United States and China. Key Points and Arguments Economic Conditions and Policies - The current commodity bull market is driven by de-globalization and the dollar crisis, similar to the situation in 1978. Supply risks are heightened due to geopolitical issues and natural disasters, such as the Indonesian copper mine disaster, while demand is supported by strategic reserves [1][2] - The U.S. fiscal policy may mirror the Carter administration's approach in 1978, with potential tax cuts under Trump's "Great America Act" aimed at stimulating economic growth. The effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to shift towards a dual mandate of maximizing employment and controlling inflation, reminiscent of the 1978 era under Chairman Miller, who maintained low interest rates despite rising inflation [1][3] China’s Economic Transition - China's economic trajectory in 2026 is likened to Japan's in 1978, transitioning from rapid industrialization to a focus on high-quality development, with GDP growth stabilizing around 5%. There is a strong inclination among residents to save rather than invest, with government support being crucial for social investment [1][4] - The challenges facing China include enhancing consumer spending, optimizing investment structures, and adapting to external environmental changes. The current low willingness for credit among residents mirrors Japan's situation during the late 1970s [5][6] Challenges for the U.S. and China - The U.S. faces challenges such as stagflation, increasing fiscal deficits, and potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence. The anticipated fiscal expansion under the "Great America Act" raises questions about its ability to effectively stimulate growth [5] - China must address issues related to high-quality development, including improving consumer sentiment and encouraging private investment, while also focusing on industrial upgrades and technological innovation [6] Impact of Monetary Policy and Currency Fluctuations - The hesitation to raise interest rates during Miller's tenure led to diminished trust in the Federal Reserve, resulting in a low real interest rate environment despite nominal rates being high. This situation contributed to a depreciation cycle for the dollar [7] - The initiation of the RMP (Reinvestment Plan) by the Federal Reserve resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates, but long-term rates did not follow suit, limiting the valuation of long-duration assets like tech stocks [8] - A weaker dollar in 2026 is expected to lead to a broad increase in commodity prices, with reduced price discrepancies across various commodities. The appreciation of the yuan and narrowing interest rate differentials may attract cross-border capital into yuan-denominated assets, enhancing their valuation and promoting foreign investment in A-shares [11] Market Insights and Future Outlook - The historical context of Japan's stock market rise in 1978 due to yen appreciation and foreign capital influx provides insights for China's market, which is poised for a financialization phase. The anticipated interactions between the U.S. and Chinese markets could lead to favorable conditions for China's market performance in 2026 [12] - Key sectors to watch in the Chinese market include cyclical industries such as photovoltaics, power equipment, chemicals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as consumer companies with high operational leverage, like airlines and tourism. The expected commodity bull market also presents significant opportunities [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75% on December 19, but the lack of a clear hawkish stance from the governor led to unexpected depreciation of the yen, with potential for further decline towards 160 yen per dollar [2][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Currency Impact - The long-term interest rates in Japan rose to 2% for the first time in 19 years following the interest rate hike, but the yen's exchange rate remained relatively stable around 155.80 yen before the announcement [4]. - After the press conference, the yen quickly depreciated, reaching a low of 157.70 yen per dollar, marking a one-month low due to the unexpected lack of aggressive monetary tightening signals from the Bank of Japan [6][8]. - Market participants expect the yen to depreciate further, with many anticipating a rate of around 160 yen by the end of March 2026 [6][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not occur until October 2026, leading to a potential depreciation of the yen to 162 yen in the first quarter of 2024 [8]. - Concerns about currency intervention have arisen, especially as the yen approaches the 160 yen mark, with officials indicating readiness to respond to excessive movements [8]. - Some analysts believe that the yen's depreciation may be limited, with expectations of a potential appreciation back to 155 yen by March 2024, influenced by anticipated actions from the U.S. Federal Reserve [9]. Group 3: Stock Market Implications - The depreciation of the yen is expected to benefit export-oriented companies, potentially driving up stock prices, with forecasts suggesting the Nikkei average could rise to between 50,000 and 55,000 points [10]. - Concerns about fiscal expansion and political developments, such as potential early elections, could pose risks to stock prices, with some analysts suggesting a possible adjustment to around 45,000 points [10].

德国正计划实施其历史上最大规模的债务融资行动，旨在通过巨额财政支出重振这一欧洲最大经济体。 根据德意志联邦共和国金融代理公司（DFA）周四发布的声明，德国明年的联邦债务发行量将增加五分之一，达到创纪录的5120亿欧元（约合 6010亿美元）。这一规模不仅显著高于2025年的4250亿欧元，更超过了2023年创下的约5000亿欧元的此前峰值。 此次激进的财政扩张由Friedrich Merz领导的保守派CDU/CSU联盟与财政部长Lars Klingbeil所在的社民党组成的执政联盟共同推动。该政府正试图 重振自疫情以来增长乏力的德国经济，其中核心承诺包括在未来十年内投入5000亿欧元的基金用于修复该国摇摇欲坠的基础设施。 在国防领域，针对欧洲不断演变的安全担忧，柏林方面正在加速行动。就在周三，柏林的立法者刚刚批准了一项约500亿欧元的国防支出计划，用 于采购装甲车、防空导弹和卫星。这些举措标志着德国正根据地缘政治现实，重新调整其预算优先事项。 发行策略调整与期限结构 负责管理政府债务的DFA在声明中详细阐述了融资构成：该机构计划通过资本市场拍卖销售约3180亿欧元的证券，并通过货币市场筹集1760亿欧 元。此 ...

新华财经北京12月18日电（王菁）债市周四（12月18日）延续暖势，国债期货主力小幅收涨，银行间现 券收益率下行1BP左右，超长债保持修复态势；公开市场单日净投放697亿元，月内资金利率小幅回 落。 机构认为，税期走款基本结束，目前处于月中，扰动因素不多，市场流动性预期较为稳定，后续需关注 跨年时点的资金价格波动情况。随着此前持续调整，超长端已跌出性价比，配置盘可能逐渐增配，交易 盘或也因为仓位下降而补仓，助力市场企稳。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.23%报112.25，10年期主力合约持平于108.01，5年期主力 合约涨0.02%报105.85，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.442。 银行间主要利率债收益率延续下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行1BP报2.223%，10年期 国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.6BP报1.8965%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率持平报1.8360%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间12月17日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.43BP报3.483%，3年 期美债收益率持平报3.528%，5年期 ...

12月10日以来，沪金价格上涨超过2%，主要受美国就业市场走弱担忧、美联储降息和扩表预期、全球 多国财政扩张以及央行持续购金等影响。 综上，中长期看，美联储降息和扩表预期、全球多国财政政策宽松预期，以及地缘政治风险难解和多国 央行持续购金将对黄金价格形成支撑。短期需警惕日元"套息交易"阶段性逆转等利空因素。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 全球多国呈财政扩张趋势 近年来，全球多国呈现财政扩张趋势。特朗普政府"大而美"法案获得通过，未来十年美国债务上限提高 了5万亿美元，财政赤字或增加3.4万亿美元，而财政支出仅削减1.2万亿美元。11月21日，日本批准了一 项规模达21.3 ...