北京时间周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，白银期货继续走低，截至发稿，沪银主力合约暂报13475.00元/千 克，下跌1.11%，获利了结与利率敏感型情绪将继续压制白银走势，短期展望偏空，目前来看，白银期 货盘内短线偏空。 【最新白银期货情解析】 本周白银抛售潮源于价格抛物线式上涨至纪录高位后，交易员纷纷锁定收益。当杠杆头寸平仓时，此类 行为通常会加速——算法交易与止损订单进一步放大卖盘，加剧价格压力。回调速度表明投机性持仓可 能正在减少，这往往是市场进入盘整阶段的前兆。 日图来看，白银期货目前处于趋势线阻力下方震荡调整，多头动力减弱，但仍处于众多均线支撑上方， 看涨前景良好，虽有继续调整和回落风险，但也可视为再度的入场看涨机会，因而，下方关注各均线支 撑，进行低多看涨，白银走势下方关注13000-13200支撑；上方关注14000-14500阻力。 周四晚间，美元指数小幅回升。消息面上，市场关注焦点仍集中于美联储政策路径。美联储官员哈塞特 表示"下次会议可能降息25BP"，与近期疲软的就业数据形成呼应：美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数大幅 下降，但初请失业金人数仍低于预期，同时Revelio Labs预计11月非农就 ...

地缘政治方面，克里姆林宫澄清普京并未拒绝美国方案，美乌高级代表将于周四会面，紧张局势虽未升 级但谈判进程的反复仍为市场提供避险支撑。 今年以来，白银价格一路走高，涨幅甚至超过了传统"避险资产"的黄金。今年白银大幅上涨的背后，是 文化与节庆消费、工业端的强劲需求、供应持续紧张等多重因素共同推动的结果。 首先是，全球最大的白银消费国——印度，今年需求激增。据悉，印度每年消费大约4000吨的白银，主 要用于珠宝、器皿和饰品。印度大约80%的白银依赖进口，而英国长期以来是其最大的供应国。随着印 度需求急剧上升，市场压力迅速传导到伦敦。市场一度紧张到部分交易商不得不改用飞机而非货船运输 白银完成交割，隔夜借银成本也一度被推高到了年化200%。 还有一大推动白银走强的重要结构性因素，就是其工业用途。白银是所有金属中热导率和电导率最高 的。分析指出，虽然过去八九年里白银供应一直大于工业及消费需求，但这一格局近期已出现逆转。 周四(12月4日)欧盘时段，现货白银缩窄跌幅，收复亚盘部分失地，白银价格暂守57美元关口，稍早银 价加速下挫逼近这一关口，美国初请失业金人数将于今晚公布，根据昨日公布的ADP和市场预期来看， 大概率将利 ...

Core Insights - Recent US economic data has underperformed expectations, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has boosted global risk appetite [1] - The focus is shifting towards the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a rate hike in December due to hawkish signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][11] Market Performance - US stock index futures rose collectively, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.05%, Nasdaq 100 futures flat, and Dow Jones futures up 0.13% [2][3] - European stock indices opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.6%, DAX up 0.7%, and FTSE 100 up 0.2% [3] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 2.3%, driven by gains in technology and semiconductor stocks [2] Bond Market Dynamics - US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.08%, while Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a historic high of 3.445% [3][6] - The demand for Japan's 30-year bonds was strong, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.04, the highest since 2019, indicating robust investor interest despite fiscal concerns [6] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar amid expectations of a rate hike [11] - The Indian rupee weakened, hitting a historical low of 90.4175 against the dollar, as market sentiment remains subdued due to stalled trade agreement processes with the US [14] Commodity Trends - Gold prices fell by 0.2% to $4194.37 per ounce, while silver dropped over 1.7% to $57.46 per ounce [3][17] - WTI crude oil prices increased by over 0.3% to $59.33 per barrel [3]

此前一天，特朗普在内阁会议上明确表示，候选人名单已"缩减至一人"。现任白宫国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈西特已经成为了新任美联储主席的最大热门人选。 截至12月3日，根据美国博彩网站Kalshi的预测数据，哈西特出任下任美联储主席的概率超过80%。 当地时间12月3日，特朗普团队通知下一任美联储主席候选人，原定与副总统万斯的面试已被取消。 他在特朗普第一任期内曾坚定捍卫美联储独立性，但今年，他已加入特朗普的行列，尖锐批评美联储及 鲍威尔。他支持特朗普大规模征收进口关税的政策，并赞同其降低利率的呼吁。 哈西特认为，高利率对经济的伤害比通胀本身更大，他支持更深、更持续的降息路径。最近他明确表 示，如果由他领导美联储，会立即降息。 基本锁定人选 美联储主席的继任过程正演变为几十年来最不寻常的一次，特朗普第二任期最具影响力的人事决定如今 已成为一场公开"表演"。 表面上看，新一任美联储主席的遴选工作仍在进行，少数最终候选人计划于本周开始与万斯及白宫高级 幕僚进行面谈。 自美国劳动节（9月1日）以来，由财政部长贝森特主持的遴选工作已将最初的11位候选人范围缩小至5 人。除了哈西特，名单上还包括美联储前理事凯文·沃什、现任 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategist James Lord indicates that the South Korean won may stabilize and potentially reverse some recent declines as the U.S. approaches interest rate cuts and South Korea's monetary easing cycle comes to an end [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - The won has experienced its most severe sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis, but Lord expects it to remain volatile [1] - The depreciation of the won is partly due to a surge in domestic funds investing overseas, bringing the exchange rate close to its lowest level since 2009 [1] - In the second half of this year, the won has been the worst-performing currency in Asia, depreciating over 8% against the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Predictions - Lord believes that the shift in monetary policy and easing trade tensions are driving a risk-return profile that favors a recovery of the won [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the U.S. will cut interest rates three times by 2026, while the South Korean central bank's easing cycle is "basically over" [1] - As U.S. economic data weakens, it is expected that the dollar will weaken, providing an opportunity for the won to recover by 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline on December 1, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2%, making it one of the most notable downturns in the Asia-Pacific market for the day [1] - Market expectations regarding a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy rapidly increased, serving as a direct catalyst for the stock market's sharp decline [1] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank would weigh the pros and cons of raising policy rates at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 19, suggesting a potential end to ultra-loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Concurrently with the stock market decline, the Japanese government bond market faced large-scale sell-offs, with the 2-year Japanese government bond yield surpassing 1% for the first time since 2008 [2] - The 5-year and 10-year government bond yields rose to 1.35% and 1.85%, respectively, marking new highs since 2008, indicating accelerated selling by investors [2] - The Japanese government announced a comprehensive economic stimulus package worth approximately 21.3 trillion yen, with a significant portion of the funding coming from a supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold will continue to demonstrate its unique allocation value in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, monetary policy shifts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and recurring geopolitical risks. Short - term fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations only limit gold's upward movement but do not reverse the bullish trend [3][12] - The Fed's interest - rate cut path may be "stop - and - go" due to inflation stickiness and economic data fluctuations. Policy expectation revisions will be a key factor affecting the volatility rhythm of precious metals [3][12] - Global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine provide support and increase the volatility of precious metals [3][12] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy and Personnel Changes - In 2026, the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee will undergo a major personnel reshuffle. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump's administration is accelerating the selection of a new chair. Five final candidates have been short - listed, with a possible pre - Christmas 2025 announcement. This may lead to a "dual leadership" situation in the first half of 2026 [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February 2026. His retirement and the selection of his successor will be an important window to observe the White House's influence on the Fed. The Fed's internal policy differences will become more complex, with the dovish camp strengthening and the hawkish camp remaining a counterbalance [7] - Any news of personnel changes may cause the market to re - evaluate the direction of monetary policy, directly affecting precious - metal prices. Investors should closely monitor these changes to predict the 2026 precious - metal market volatility [8] Gold Market Performance in 2025 Q3 - The global gold market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with both supply and demand booming. Total demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,313 tons, a record quarterly high, a 3% year - on - year increase. The demand value soared 44% year - on - year to $146 billion. Supply also increased by 3% to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising seasonally to 977 tons and recycled gold supply remaining at a high of 344 tons [8] - The LBMA gold price hit 13 record highs in Q3, with a quarterly average price of $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year - on - year increase [8] Gold Market Demand Structure - Investment demand continued to dominate the market in Q3 2025. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Gold jewelry consumption decreased to 371 tons but the consumption value increased to $4.1 billion due to rising gold prices [9] - Global gold ETFs' significant increase in positions drove up the total holdings, with North American and Asian markets being the main sources of capital inflows. As of November 20, 2025, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased by 19.13% compared to the end of 2024, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [9] Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - The COMEX gold futures contract may form strong support in the range of $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. If it can effectively break through the $4,200 mark, the next target may be around $4,400 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures contract may fluctuate in the range of 900 - 950 yuan per gram [4][13] - Silver is more elastic due to the resonance of supply - demand tightness and financial attributes. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position strategy when gold prices pull back, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision path, inflation data inflection points, and geopolitical situations [4][13]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with spot gold closing at $4172.84 per ounce, down 0.54%, after reaching a high of $4245.23 earlier in the day [1] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 1.65% and the Nasdaq down 2.29%, reflecting a negative sentiment in the market [1] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that the U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact the economy, predicting a lower GDP growth rate for Q4 than the previously forecasted 1.9% [1] - The White House's economic advisor projected a 1.5 percentage point decrease in GDP growth due to the shutdown, highlighting the potential for interest rate cuts [1][2] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are mixed, with probabilities slightly below 50% according to various derivatives [2] - A significant majority of economists (80%) anticipate a rate cut in December, reflecting a growing consensus on the need for monetary easing [2] Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding interest rate decisions, with some indicating the need for continued tightening to combat inflation [3][4] - The potential lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown could hinder the Fed's decision-making process [5][7] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Recent trends show a resurgence in gold and silver prices, driven by expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [8] - The end of the government shutdown is seen as a catalyst for the release of delayed economic data, which may support the case for a rate cut [9] Silver Market Fundamentals - Silver prices are supported by a tight supply-demand dynamic, with decreasing inventories reported on major exchanges [10] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in renewable energy sectors, is expected to drive long-term price increases [14] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks have accelerated gold purchases, with net buying totaling 220 tons in Q3, reflecting a strategic diversification of reserves [12][13] - This trend indicates a shift towards gold as a stable asset amid fluctuating economic conditions, reinforcing its role as a long-term value reserve [14] Geopolitical and Economic Considerations - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [15] - The resolution of the government shutdown is expected to restore the release of critical economic data, influencing future monetary policy decisions [15]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance - sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain. Domestically, China's economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations, with strong resilience. Despite challenges like weak consumption and investment, policies will support the economy to achieve the annual growth target [4][56][57]. - For aluminum, the Fed's expected December rate cut and domestic fiscal support are macro factors. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact on ore shipments may support alumina prices, but the alumina supply remains loose. Demand is transitioning to the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [4][105]. - For zinc, the external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Supply may decline, and the domestic refined zinc surplus may ease. Demand is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector weak and the auto and home - appliance sectors providing support [8][9]. - For tin, the supply at the mine end remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is slow. The semiconductor and auto industries support tin demand. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro: The Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, and Domestic Demand Still Faces Pressure Market Operation Logic - **US**: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in a slump, service industry growth slowed, the labor market cooled, and the CPI fell more than expected. Future policies are expected to be more flexible and uncertain, and a December rate cut is likely [19][20][24]. - **Eurozone**: In October, the economy showed "enhanced stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." The service industry PMI reached a 1 - and - a - half - year high, inflation fell slightly, but the manufacturing recession continued. The labor market was stable, and inflation showed "overall cooling and core stability" [26][28][29]. - **China**: In the first three quarters, the economy grew steadily. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed strong resilience. The price index showed some repair, and the PMI indicated overall stable production and operation but a weak manufacturing demand [34][44][50]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift is significant, and future policies are uncertain. The eurozone economy depends on the service industry in the short - term and needs to solve multiple challenges in the long - term. - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal policies will support the economy to achieve the annual target [56][57][58]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [60]. 3.2 Aluminum: Off - season Downstream Start - up Cools, but High - level Support Remains Market Operation Logic - **Cost Side**: In October, domestic bauxite prices rose slightly, and overseas prices fell. The supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the impact of the Guinea rainy season on imports was still being felt. In 2025, the supply of imported bauxite may increase, but the spot resources may still be tight. In October, the output of alumina increased, but the profit was compressed. In November, the market is expected to remain in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. In October, the cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [64][72][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, production increased, and the aluminum - water ratio rose. In November, winter environmental protection restrictions may affect production, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline. Import losses are large, and the net import volume may exceed last year [80][82]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: In October, the refined - scrap price difference widened, and the PMI of the recycled aluminum industry declined but remained above the boom - bust line. In November, demand is expected to be boosted, and the industry PMI may continue to expand. The substitution of recycled aluminum for primary aluminum is gradually emerging [86]. - **Demand Side**: In October, the aluminum processing PMI fell below the boom - bust line. Different sectors have different performances. Demand is transitioning to the off - season. The real estate market is still weak, but the auto market is growing well. In November, the State Grid's order bidding may accelerate, but terminal demand needs to be released [88][91][98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Near the end of October, the supply increased, and demand was weak. In November, the inventory may change from de - stocking to stocking, which will have a negative impact on prices [100]. Market Trend Judgment The Fed is likely to cut rates in December, and domestic fiscal policies will support the economy. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact may support alumina prices, but the supply is still loose. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [105]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas events, ore - end resumption and shipment, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [107]. 3.3 Zinc: The External - strong and Internal - weak Pattern Continues, Pay Attention to the Upper Pressure Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in October**: Zinc prices fluctuated higher after a correction. Overseas prices were stronger than domestic ones. The market was boosted by overseas rate cuts and low LME inventories in the short - term, but faced long - term surplus pressure [110]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Overseas production increased significantly in the first half of 2025 and is expected to continue to increase in the second half. In October, processing fees declined, and import losses increased. Port inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the raw - material inventory days of smelters have decreased [113][115][122]. - **Refined Zinc**: In October, production increased but was lower than expected. In November, production is expected to decline due to factors such as raw - material shortages and profit compression. Zinc ingot imports are at a low level, and the domestic inventory increase pressure may ease. Overseas LME inventories are at a low level, supporting prices [124][127][130]. - **Zinc Consumption**: The traditional consumption season was under - performing. Galvanized sheet exports may decline in October. The real estate market is still weak, and the impact on zinc demand is limited. The auto market is growing well but may cool slightly in the fourth quarter [132][137][139]. Market Trend Judgment The external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided. 3.4 Tin: The Probability of Overseas Supply Increase Rises, and the Price Center of Gravity Faces Downward Risk Market Operation Logic - **Mine End**: The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is slow. The arrival volume from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia will increase in October. - **Smelting**: After the September shutdown and maintenance, refined tin production increased in October, but raw - material shortages in some provinces led to low processing fees. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry supports tin demand, and the auto market has grown rapidly but may slow down at the end of the year. Market Trend Judgment The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided.

Global Monetary Policy Trends - In October 2025, among 26 major economies tracked, 7 economies cut interest rates, with the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%[1][8] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its rates for the third consecutive time but signaled a hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan kept its rates unchanged but expressed a dovish outlook[1][8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with a 70% probability of a December cut as of late October, indicating uncertainty about additional cuts within the year[2][20] U.S. Liquidity Tracking - As of October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance decreased to $2.83 trillion, representing approximately 12% of nominal GDP, indicating that excess liquidity is nearly exhausted[3][9] - The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ONRRP) balance significantly shrank to $19.5 billion, with usage almost depleted, reflecting tight liquidity conditions[3][9] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) to interest on excess reserves (IOER) spread narrowed from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, showing tightening liquidity due to balance sheet reduction[4][36] Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable between 0.19 and 0.39 basis points, indicating that liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market has not significantly deteriorated despite the Fed's balance sheet reduction[5][44] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. remained low, with credit default swap (CDS) prices for U.S. corporate bonds showing limited impact from recent regional banking credit events[5][44] - The Libor-OIS spread increased significantly, reaching a peak of 110 basis points, indicating rising liquidity premiums in the market[5][44]