2月3日早晨，金银迎来反弹。截至2月3日8时22分，现货黄金报4809.25，日内涨超3%；现货白银报83.808，日内涨超5% 文｜《财经》研究员 顾欣宇 记者 唐郡 2月2日下午，随着金银等贵金属价格巨震，工商银行发布最新风险提示称，近期国际贵金属市场波动率显著增加，引发价格快速变化，风险进一 步显现。"建议从中长期视角考虑，坚持分批分散、适度均衡的原则进行投资配置。" 此外，多家国有大行通过提高贵金属投资门槛，进行限额管理等方式，帮助投资者把控风险。 编辑 | 张威 北京时间2026年2月2日，金银经历跳水、反弹后再度陷入震荡。 2月2日早盘，黄金、白银集体低开，7时20分，现货白银日内跌幅扩大至6%，报79.57美元/盎司。现货黄金向下跌破4800美元/盎司，日内下跌 3.35%。 随后，金银一度反弹但很快继续下挫，现货黄金在14时30分左右跌破4450美元/盎司，为1月8日以来新低；现货白银一度失守72美元/盎司，接近 抹去2026年内涨幅。14时38分，现货黄金报4421.31美元/盎司，日内跌超9%，现货白银报72.21，日内跌超15%。 2月3日早晨，金银迎来反弹。截至2月3日8时22分，现货 ...

交易所的连环重拳成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。芝加哥商品交易所在一个月内三次上调白银期货保证金，杠杆玩家被迫割肉离场。数据显示，10倍杠杆的 投资者面临本金翻倍的补仓压力，这种流动性绞杀比价格下跌更致命。上海黄金交易所紧急跟进，将白银合约保证金从20%提升到26%，直接冻结了投机血 液。 地缘政治降温抽走了避险灵魂。俄乌冲突缓和迹象叠加伊朗核谈判重启，黄金的战争溢价一夜蒸发。对比1月底每盎司5596美元的历史峰值，如今4400美元 的价格揭示了一个残酷真相：当世界从火药桶边缘后退时，囤金大妈们手里的筹码瞬间变成了烫手山芋。白银的悲剧更甚，缺乏央行托底的它就像断线风 筝，单周30%的跌幅让跟风者血本无归。 黄金白银为何突然暴跌？三大关键因素深度解析 这场贵金属雪崩早有预兆。黄金年涨幅70%、白银170%的疯狂本就不可持续，当交易所开始拔网线，当美联储收起印钞机，所有泡沫都逃不过重力法则。 但深蹲或许为了更高跳跃，瑞银已将黄金目标价调至6200美元——只是下一次狂欢，注定与杠杆赌徒无关。 美联储鹰派信号突然浇灭市场热情。鲍威尔力保独立性的强硬表态让多头瞬间清醒，原本期待降息的资金集体出逃。现货黄金单日暴跌12%，创 ...

此次抛售潮的直接导火索，是美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一届美联储主席。市场普遍将沃什 解读为鹰派人选，其提名打破了此前市场对美联储激进降息的乐观预期，引发市场对货币政策转向的担 忧。分析人士指出，沃什被视为能"重新锚定美联储公信力"的人选，其提名缓解了市场对美联储独立性 丧失的担忧，直接挑战了"货币贬值—实物资产永涨"的主流叙事，成为贵金属多头集中平仓的核心触发 器，推动美元指数反弹至96.52的月内高位，进一步压制以美元计价的贵金属价格。 一纸美联储主席提名，引爆全球贵金属市场史诗级抛售潮。北京时间1月30日夜间至31日凌晨，伦敦现 货白银盘中一度暴跌36%，最低触及74.28美元/盎司，创2020年以来最大单日波动幅度；伦敦现货黄金 同步重挫，盘中跌破5000美元/盎司关键关口，最大跌幅超12%，最低下探至4682美元/盎司，回吐近期 全部涨幅。国内市场同步承压，黄金T+D单日跌幅近10%，沪银主连暴跌17%，A股贵金属板块超20只 个股跌停，这场由单一事件触发的连锁抛售，背后是多重利空因素的共振叠加。 影响后续走势的关键变量持续演化。美联储主席提名的参议院批准进程、沃什后续政策表态，将直接定 调货 ...

这场暴跌并非孤立事件。美元指数应声上涨0.9%，铜等工业金属也应声下跌6%。招联消金首席经济学家董希淼警示："美联储政策转向将重塑全球资本流动 格局。"新兴市场尤其需要警惕，当美元走强叠加美联储缩表，可能引发新一轮跨境资本流动冲击。而那些在金银高点追涨的散户投资者，更是在这场风暴 中首当其冲。 政治与市场的激烈博弈 值得玩味的是，沃什的胜出本身就是一场精妙的政治平衡。最初的热门人选凯文·哈塞特因其与特朗普的亲密关系遭到市场用脚投票——美国国债收益率每 次听到他的名字就会飙升。最终特朗普不得不在政治忠诚与市场稳定之间选择后者。这种妥协恰恰暴露了现代金融体系中政治权力与市场力量的微妙制衡。 一纸提名引发的金融海啸 当2026年1月30日特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席时，恐怕连白宫都没想到这份人事任免会立即在全球金融市场引爆核弹。黄金单日暴跌12%跌破 4700美元，白银更是惊现36%的断崖式下跌，这场贵金属市场的"雪崩"来得比所有人预想的都要猛烈。究竟是什么让这位美联储前理事的提名具有如此惊人 的破坏力？ "鹰派主帅"的政策阴影 市场对沃什的恐惧源于其鲜明的政策立场：这位以"通胀斗士"著称的经济学家，即使 ...

A historic liquidation event swept through gold and silver markets over the past 48 hours, erasing roughly $7 trillion in value from precious metals. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell 7% but remained surprisingly resilient amid the broader sell-off. Bitcoin analyst Joe Consorti noted that the decline in the precious metals market cap was roughly four times Bitcoin’s entire capitalization. BTC Avoids Liquidation Cascade That Crushed Gold and Silver Prices Data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment highlighted th ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 2.330%, the highest since February 1999, is primarily driven by concerns over fiscal discipline, expectations of a shift in monetary policy, and inflationary pressures alongside yen depreciation [1][3][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Bond Yield Increase - Fiscal discipline loosening is a key trigger for the bond sell-off, as political parties propose tax cuts ahead of elections, raising fears of reduced fiscal revenue and increased deficits [3][6]. - Expectations of a shift in monetary policy are influencing the market, with the Bank of Japan signaling potential interest rate hikes in 2026, which is pushing bond yields higher [3][6]. - Inflation and yen depreciation pressures are exacerbating the situation, as rising import costs lead investors to demand higher yields on long-term bonds [3][6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment on Government Policies - The market's reaction reflects skepticism towards Prime Minister Kishi's aggressive fiscal policies, which include tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially worsening Japan's already high public debt, exceeding 260% of GDP [6][9]. - The upcoming elections may solidify Kishi's position but could also lead to more unrestrained fiscal policies, raising concerns about Japan's long-term debt sustainability [6][9]. Group 3: Impact on Economy and Society - The bond sell-off is causing a domino effect on the economy, leading to increased costs for essential goods and services, thereby reducing the purchasing power of Japanese households [8][9]. - Rising interest rates are increasing the financial burden on households with fixed-rate mortgages, significantly impacting their financial stability [8][9]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises may face higher financing costs, potentially leading to layoffs and stagnation in income growth, further shrinking domestic demand [9][10]. Group 4: Central Bank's Dilemma - The Bank of Japan faces a challenging situation of needing to combat inflation while stabilizing the market, with potential measures including unlimited bond purchases and delaying asset reduction plans [10]. - Any intervention by the Bank of Japan may be perceived as monetizing fiscal deficits, which could lead to further depreciation of the yen [10]. - Without clear signals of fiscal discipline from the government, the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's measures may be limited, merely postponing market reassessment of Japan's risks [10].

Price Status and Core Drivers - International gold price has surpassed $4635 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 60%, but technical indicators suggest a potential short-term correction [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have reached a historical peak of 1436-1438 RMB per gram, with a significant regional price difference exceeding 30% [2] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 57:1, indicating a notable potential for silver price increases [2] Threefold Upward Logic - There is a surge in safe-haven demand due to geopolitical events such as conflicts in the Middle East and U.S. military actions in Venezuela, leading to increased investment in gold as a "ultimate safe haven" [3] Economic Impact and Chain Reactions - Wedding costs have doubled, with the total price of "three gold items" rising from 30,000 RMB to over 60,000 RMB since early 2025, prompting some couples to delay weddings or opt for rental gold jewelry [5] - A cash-out trend is emerging, with significant gold buyback transactions reported, and banks facing high demand for gold storage [6] - Retail investors are facing challenges, with a 7% drop in silver leveraged trading leading to liquidations, and a significant price gap between gold buyback and retail prices [6] Industry Cost Transmission - Photovoltaic companies are experiencing a rise in silver paste costs from 5% to 20%, forcing them to increase prices by 0.01–0.05 RMB per watt and accelerating the development of copper paste alternatives [7] Market Controversies and Risk Warnings - Bullish analysts predict gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce (30% probability), while cautious analysts warn that easing geopolitical tensions or delayed interest rate cuts could lead to a price drop to $3800 [8] - Citigroup forecasts a potential decline in gold prices to the range of $2500-$2700 in the second half of 2026 [8] Future Key Observation Nodes - The Federal Reserve's decision on January 28 regarding interest rate cuts could trigger sell-offs if expectations are not met [13] - The production progress of copper paste photovoltaic components by Q2 2026 will determine the resilience of industrial silver demand [14]

Core Insights - The spot silver price has reached a new historical high, surpassing $90 per ounce, indicating strong market demand and bullish sentiment [1] - The market capitalization of silver has exceeded $5 trillion, surpassing that of major companies like NVIDIA, which is valued at $4.52 trillion [4][5] Price Movements - Spot silver prices in London reached a peak of $90.004, with a daily increase of 3.41% [2] - COMEX silver also saw significant gains, with prices rising over 4% during trading [3] - The Shanghai silver futures contracts experienced a rise of over 7%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 30% [3][4] Market Dynamics - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as inflation data supporting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Analysts from Citigroup have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver to $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively, over the next three months [7] Supply and Demand Factors - There is a noted short-term tightness in the silver spot market, driven by factors such as U.S. trade policies designating silver as a critical mineral and increased orders from India [7] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that while the most acute phase of supply tightness may have passed, ongoing developments in U.S. trade policy will be crucial for future market conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surpassed $90 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by various market factors including inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. Price Movements - On January 14, spot silver prices rose to $90.004 per ounce, marking a 3.41% increase from the previous close of $86.919 [3]. - COMEX silver also saw significant gains, with an intraday increase exceeding 4%, closing at $89.900, up 3.88% from the previous close of $86.338 [4]. - The Shanghai silver futures contracts experienced a rise of over 7%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 30% [4]. Market Capitalization - The market capitalization of silver has surpassed $5 trillion, exceeding the market cap of NVIDIA, which stands at $4.52 trillion [5]. Global Market Context - The current price of silver is $89.82, reflecting a 4.03% increase, while gold is priced at $4,630, up 0.68% [6]. - Other precious metals such as platinum and palladium have also shown notable price increases [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. inflation data has reinforced market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to rising demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [7]. - The core consumer price index in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below market expectations, which has influenced investor sentiment regarding monetary policy [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts from Citigroup have raised their price forecasts for gold and silver over the next three months to $5,000 and $100 per ounce, respectively [8]. - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a shift in silver pricing dynamics since 2022, with a notable short-term supply shortage emerging due to various factors, including U.S. trade policies and increased industrial demand [8].

【导读】现货白银突破90美元/盎司，续创历史新高 白银，又爆了！ 1月14日，现货白银价格继续攀升，盘中站上90美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 | く さ | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 89.883 | | 昨结 | 86.919 | | 开盘 | | 86.951 | | +2.964 | +3.41% | 总量(kg) | 0.00 | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 90.004 | 持 仓 | | 0 | 2 | 물 | 0 | | 最低价 | 86.867 | 增 仓 | | 0 | 内 | 물 | 0 | | સ્ત્ર B4 | 五日 | 日K | 闇K | 月K | | 重多 | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价: -- | | 盘口 | | | 90.004 | | | | 3.55% | 卖1 | 89.913 | 0 | | | | | | | 际 | 89.880 | 0 | | | | | | | ...