Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle has sparked discussions in the market, with the current federal funds rate of 4.11% expected to drop below 3.5% by the end of 2026 [1] - While Wall Street celebrates the anticipated asset appreciation, ordinary households struggle to feel the benefits, highlighting a stark contrast in wealth distribution [1] - The challenge lies in ensuring that more individuals can share in the benefits of the policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the economy [1] Group 1: Wealth Disparity and Asset Appreciation - Low interest rates combined with high liquidity are driving up financial asset prices, primarily benefiting those who already hold significant stocks and funds [3] - The wealth of the top 0.1% has nearly doubled since 2020, surpassing $23 trillion, with stock investments being the main source of this growth [3] - By 2025, inflows into exchange-traded funds are projected to reach a record $1.25 trillion, further confirming the positive response from asset holders [3] Group 2: Impact on Ordinary Households - The barriers to obtaining mortgages have not significantly decreased due to rate cuts, with most regions requiring six-figure household incomes, far above the median level [7] - The reduction in credit card interest rates is minimal, providing little relief for ordinary workers burdened with small debts, limiting their ability to benefit from the policy [7] - Young individuals, primarily reliant on wage income, hold a low proportion of financial assets, making them less able to share in the asset appreciation benefits [7] Group 3: Savings and Inflation Concerns - Cash savings remain a primary financial strategy for many ordinary families, but lower interest rates reduce savings account yields, slowing wealth accumulation [9] - Borrowing rates closely tied to daily life do not decrease in tandem with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, leading to delayed benefits for consumers [10] - Inflation pressures persist, disproportionately affecting low-income families and eroding their purchasing power, exacerbating economic strain [11] Group 4: Policy Challenges and Solutions - The Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy aimed to stabilize the economy during crises, but prolonged liquidity injections have inflated asset prices and widened wealth gaps [13] - The Gini coefficient in the U.S. has been rising, indicating increasing wealth inequality, as the elderly rely on returns from monetary market funds totaling $7.5 trillion [15] - Policymakers face a dilemma: excessive easing may trigger inflation, while tightening could hinder economic growth, necessitating a balance between growth and equity [15] Group 5: Future Considerations - Recognizing the inherent limitations of current policies, there is a need for solutions that address wealth disparity while maintaining economic stability [17] - Ordinary families may need to adjust their wealth allocation strategies and increase their financial asset holdings, which requires better financial education and a more favorable investment environment [19] - The ongoing challenge for the Federal Reserve and policymakers will be to find ways to reduce wealth gaps while ensuring economic stability, a critical issue for ordinary households [19]

01 经济增长失速的内外夹击 高市早苗接过首相职位的同时，也接过了一系列棘手的经济问题。 日本经济再度亮起红灯，内阁府近日公布的数据显示，日本三季度实际国内生产总值按年率计算下降1.8%，自 2024年第一季度以来再次出现负增长。 "经济衰退与贫富分化之间，这位女首相的政治命运，背后是日本社会的结构性困境。" 东京证券交易所的屏幕近日一片惨淡。日经225指数连续四个交易日下滑，累计跌幅达4.8%，市值蒸发约1.2万亿 日元，创下近三个月来最大跌幅。 这一市场震荡恰逢日本新任首相高市早苗发表一系列涉台错误言论之时，这引发日本政坛元老们纷纷炮轰。日本 维新会创始人桥下彻在电视节目中直言："没有那么大的实力，却偏要口出逞强之言，才会变成现在这样。" 这一经济衰退源于内外需的双重压力。外需方面，受美国关税影响，日本出口连续4个月萎缩。内需方面，占日本 经济总量过半的私人消费增速也显著放缓，从第二季度的0.4%放缓至0.1%。由于生活成本高企导致实际工资停滞 不前，日本家庭仍在削减可自由支配的支出。 与此同时，日本的物价持续上涨。日本首都东京10月核心消费者物价指数同比上涨2.8%，连续高于日本央行2%的 通胀目标。甚 ...

2025年11月的加密货币市场宛如坐上"过山车"。比特币从10月12.6万美元的历史峰值一路俯冲，11月4日 跌破10万美元整数关口，11月18日盘中触及8.9万美元阶段性低点，较峰值跌幅达29%。截至11月19 日，比特币在9万-9.5万美元区间反复拉锯，24小时波动率仍高达4.2%，远超美股0.8%的平均水平。 这场震荡席卷全市场：以太坊从3918美元跌至2946美元，单月跌幅24.8%，11月4日更是出现单日8.79% 的急跌；Solana、Cardano等主流山寨币跌幅普遍超30%，其中狗狗币较10月高点腰斩，市值蒸发52亿美 元。加密货币总市值从10月底的2.9万亿美元缩水至2.6万亿美元，短短19天蒸发规模相当于3个Coinbase 的市值。 衍生品市场的爆仓潮同步上演。Coinglass数据显示，11月15日单日爆仓人数突破18万，爆仓金额达4.3 亿美元，其中20倍杠杆以上的多头仓位占比超70%。期权市场数据更显悲观，比特币8.5万美元行权价 的看跌期权成交量较上月激增3倍…… 图片来源：Binance 降息梦碎、机构逃亡、市场恐慌，9万美元防线为何不堪一击？ 技术指标发出强烈看空信号。比特币 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（11月17日）再度收跌，开盘价4086.20美元/盎司，最高价4106.68美元/盎司，最低价4049.65美 元/盎司，收盘价4064.11美元/盎司。 消息面： 纽约联储周一表示，11月全州制造业商业状况指数上升8点，至18.7，反映出经济活动加速扩张。 评论称，尽管制造业的乐观情绪有所减弱，但随着信号显示需求改善，美国纽约州的制造业活动本月意外加快 步伐。这是过去5个月来第四次出现正面读数。该行表示，新订单和发货量大幅增加，而交货时间略有延长， 供应可及性有所减弱。纽约联储经济研究顾问Richard Deitz表示，"纽约州制造业活动稳步增长，就业水平和工 作时间都小幅上升。"不过，他补充称，尽管企业预期情况会改善，但对未来的乐观情绪却有所下降。该行表 示，尽管投入和销售价格的增速放缓，但仍处于高位。报告指出，劳动力市场指标有所改善，就业人数小幅增 加，平均每周工作时间延长。由于政府关门导致经济数据缺乏，物价和就业市场的发展可能会受到更密切的关 注。本次调查是在11月3日至11月10日期间收集的。 美联储理事沃勒表示，他支持在12月的会议上再次降息，因为他越来越担心劳动力市场和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggests that if he were the Fed Chair, he would have halted quantitative easing (QE) earlier, indicating that the current state of the Fed's balance sheet is quite ideal [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - Waller believes that the Fed's balance sheet will not remain static, as natural reserve demand will drive its expansion, with potential growth occurring within a month or a few months [1] - He anticipates no significant changes in fiscal stimulus measures next year [1] Group 2: Market Interest Rates - Waller notes that market interest rates are gradually rising, indicating that the Fed is nearing a state of reserve scarcity, while the neutral level of interest rates remains unclear [1] - The Fed cannot simply refrain from cutting rates due to inflation being above target for five consecutive years; more substantial justification is required [1] - If the job market shows signs of recovery, the necessity for "insurance rate cuts" will diminish [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 勋称：中国将赢得人工智能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和 | | --- | | 更低的能源成本。华为公布"十大发明"成果，Scale-up 超节点算力平台、新一代超 | | 高容量 SSD 存储、短距光互联 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日 星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 受外部市场下跌影响，周五两市主要指数低开走弱，油气板块走强。两市成交额 1.95 万亿元，稍有缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4628，跌 73 点，跌幅-1.57%；上证 50 指数收 | | | | | 3038 点，跌 35 点，跌幅-1.15%；中证 500 指数收 7235 点，跌 119 点，跌幅-1.63%； | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 7502 点，跌 87 点，跌幅-1.16%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的 | | | | | 是油气资源 ETF、科创板新能源 ETF、石油天然气 ETF、中药 ETF、石油 ETF，跌幅 | | | | | 居前的是中韩半导体 ETF、创业板人工智能 ETF 国泰、信创 ETF 易方达。两市板块 | | | | | 指数中 ...

AI狂热要见顶了吗？ 美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新的报告中提出了一个大胆的预测：进入2026年的"最佳交易"将是做空那些 在AI领域投入巨资的"超大规模云服务商"（hyperscaler）的公司债券。他认为，由AI引发的债务压力将成为这些科 技巨头新的"阿喀琉斯之踵"。 Hartnett的观点基于一个核心判断：支撑AI热潮的宽松金融环境正迎来拐点。尽管过去12个月全球央行进行了167次 降息，但预计未来一年降息次数将锐减至81次。这种流动性势头的减弱，意味着信贷利差的最低点已经过去，而这 对于需要巨额融资的行业来说并非好消息。 尽管信贷市场的裂痕已经开始显现，Hartnett认为这并不意味着股市的狂欢将立即结束。他预计，在包括"美联储看 跌期权"、"特朗普看跌期权"在内的多重支撑下，资产配置者在进入2026年时仍将普遍持有股票多头头寸。 Hartnett为市场划定了一个关键的时间节点：明年5月15日。这一天是新任美联储主席获得任命的时间。他判断，在 此之前，市场不太可能出现由银行股或信贷利差引发的重大"风险规避"信号。换言之，做多股市的交易在明年5月 前似乎依然安全。 AI的债务风险 ...

宏观：香港路演见闻 20251116 摘要 市场预期 2026 年货币政策延续宽松，尽管美联储近期释放鹰派信号， 但多数投资者仍预计 12 月降息，主要基于政府停摆导致的经济下行压 力。 市场对特朗普贸易政策存在分歧，关税政策不确定性大，中期选举前可 能采取增量宽财政措施以拉拢选票。 2025 年和 2026 年净财政宽松力度基本为零，需增量财政政策才能实 现真正宽松，如每个贫困家庭发放 2000 美元，但实施存在不确定性。 2026 年美国经济总体乐观，但依赖财政和货币双宽松，若缺乏进一步 宽松措施，居民部门信贷压力将增加，主要体现在车贷、银行卡和信贷 等方面。 市场继续看好黄金和 AI，尽管存在泡沫化担忧，但仍有上涨潜力。同时， 由于对双宽松状态的预期，对铜等大宗商品也持乐观态度。 近期市场对美联储降息预期出现变化，12 月降息预期从 70%降至 43%，但 2026 年 12 月的隐含降息预期仍维持在 3.3 附近，宽松货币 政策趋势未变。 AI 技术的应用带来 K 型影响，主要由富人消费驱动，高收入群体受益， 低收入群体面临就业压力，服务业外包经济体贸易账可能受冲击。 Q&A 近期权益市场风格切换的原 ...