Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the start - up rate of PDH decreased month - on - month due to the maintenance of new units, and the reduction of propylene external sales volume supported the price in the short term. On the demand side, the start - up rates of propylene downstream industries showed a differentiated trend, with a slight improvement in short - term downstream demand, but the increase in propylene spot prices compressed downstream profits, which might suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the decline in crude oil prices weakened cost support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][20][30]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, the production profit and start - up rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67].

Group 1: Copper Market - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, which is likely to support copper prices [1][2] - This week, the price changes for copper were -0.05% for LME copper, -0.47% for SHFE copper, and -0.62% for COMEX copper, indicating a period of fluctuation [2] - Domestic copper inventory has increased, with LME copper at 156,000 tons, COMEX copper at 271,000 short tons, and SHFE copper at 82,000 tons, showing a month-on-month change of +0.11%, +1.60%, and -5.4% respectively [2] - The downstream demand for copper has rebounded, with the copper rod operating rate at 71.8%, up by 1.19 percentage points [2] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend due to rising inventory levels [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.15% to 3,225 CNY/ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 0.41% to 3,192 CNY/ton [3] - The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina reached 91.57 million tons per year, with a weekly operating rate down by 0.2 percentage points to 83.0% due to routine maintenance [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices fell by 0.34% to 20,700 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 4,405 CNY/ton, up by 1.84% [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium salt prices are expected to rise due to seasonal demand, with carbonate lithium prices increasing by 1.45% to 84,000 CNY/ton [4][5] - The production of carbonate lithium this week was 19,000 tons, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month [5] - SMM weekly inventory for carbonate lithium is at 142,000 tons, down by 0.5% [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The import volume of cobalt raw materials has continued to decline, which may accelerate the digestion of raw material inventory, leading to potential price increases [5] - Domestic cobalt prices fell by 0.38% to 261,000 CNY/ton [5] - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to accelerate the reduction of cobalt raw material inventory, potentially leading to a tight supply situation in Q4 [5]

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月22日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) (白糖) 隔夜美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足，巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底，巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷，同 比下降11.04%。另外，今年生产进度也偏慢，导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过，今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加， 而且从糖醇比价来看，比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿，美糖上方仍面临一定 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. For the copper market, the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged, with support from the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" and the market awaiting new drivers [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by the resumption of production at Yichun Yinli, but demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides some support. The market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11][12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure as the consumption peak season ends and the supply - demand situation weakens. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. - Asphalt futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to insufficient cost - side support and weak demand [15]. - PP is expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [16][17]. - Plastic is expected to trade in a range, with the improvement in the agricultural film industry potentially providing some support [18]. - PVC is expected to decline in a volatile manner due to weak demand and high inventory pressure [19][20]. - The coking coal market is temporarily in a downward - biased and volatile state, with market sentiment affected by various factors [21]. - Urea is expected to be bearish in the short term due to weak domestic demand and high inventory [22][23]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Fuel oil and caustic soda rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell [6]. - As of 15:16 on August 22, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 300 2509, SSE 50 2509, and CSI 1000 2509, while funds flowed out of contracts like lithium carbonate 2511, SHFE copper 2509, and SHFE gold 2510 [8]. Copper - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The supply of refined copper is expected to be stable in the short term, with potential production cuts in the later third quarter. Demand is supported by the power grid and new energy sectors but is still affected by the real estate market. The market is waiting for new drivers [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a downward - trending shock. The resumption of production at Yichun Yinli eases supply concerns, and demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides support. The market is highly sensitive to industry news [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. OPEC + plans to increase production in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus. The consumption peak season is ending, and prices are expected to decline [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply has decreased, and demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds. With the decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the market is expected to be weak [15]. PP - The downstream PP开工率 has slightly increased, and the supply may increase with new capacity. Demand is weak in the short term but may be boosted during the peak seasons. The market is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually improving, especially in the agricultural film sector. The market is expected to trade in a range [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 has decreased, and demand is weak, especially affected by the real estate market. Exports are expected to decline, and inventory pressure is high. The market is expected to decline [19][20]. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has declined. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as environmental protection and the steel industry. The market sentiment is volatile, and the market is expected to be downward - biased [21]. Urea - The price of urea has declined. The supply is stable, and domestic demand is weak, with high inventory levels. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [22][23].

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-22 旺季临近，烧碱继续去库 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5004元/吨（-4）；华东基差-264元/吨（+24）;华南基差-164元/吨（+44）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4740元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（+40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格630元/吨（+0）；电石价格2755元/吨（+0）；电石利润-39元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-231元/吨（+21）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-540元/吨（-51）；PVC出口利润15.5美元/吨（-3.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.7万吨（-1.0）；PVC社会库存49.3万吨（+1.2）；PVC电石法开工率76.07%（-3.14%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.44%（-5.48%）；PVC开工率75.02%（-3.82%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量79.1万吨（-4.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2687元/吨（+32）；山东32%液碱基差-62元/吨（-32）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1340元/吨（+0）。 市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand - end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the decline in positions and prices weakens the bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of stainless steel is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 10,049 lots, an increase of 135 lots; the position of the main contract of stainless steel is 138,810 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 118,640 tons, a decrease of 1,129 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons; the spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly chromite output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believe the upside risk of inflation exceeds the downside risk of employment, but some think the risks are balanced, and two think employment risk is more prominent. The National Energy Administration released that the total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia is being released faster, and the output has rebounded significantly [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price changes and the corresponding multi - and short - term logics[2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Data - **Commodities**: From August 11 to August 15, 2025, palm oil had the highest weekly increase of 5.11% at a closing price of 9460.00; while gold had the largest weekly decline of 1.52% at a closing price of 775.80. Other commodities like polysilicon, bean meal also showed varying degrees of increase or decrease[3]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, S&P 500, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, CSI 500 increased by 3.88%[3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.36%, while 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.26%[3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar increased by 0.54%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.43%[3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included increased trading volume in the stock market, favorable policies, and improved liquidity. Bearish factors were potential over - heating in some indices and high A - share valuations[5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were loose funds, central bank's net injection, and weak economic data. Bearish factors were volatile long - term bonds and strong stock market performance[5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 2 were bullish, 4 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included high - load operation of US refineries and expected end of OPEC+ production increase. Bearish factors were the progress of US - Russia summit and the slowdown of Asian oil demand[6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were strong export data and low inventory in some regions. Bearish factors were the call for policy re - evaluation in Indonesia and increased domestic inventory[6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved macro - policies and low domestic inventory. Bearish factors were US tariff expansion and unstable trade situation[7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Methanol**: Among 8 institutions, 5 were bearish and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were policy support and cost increase. Bearish factors were high import volume and low demand in the off - season[7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bearish and 7 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were expected Fed rate cuts and economic data deterioration. Bearish factors were high PPI data and improved risk appetite[8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were increased iron - water production and decreased global shipments. Bearish factors were increased port inventory and weak demand for steel products[8].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The outcome of the September Fed interest rate meeting is highly uncertain, leading to a stalemate between bulls and bears in the market. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will make cautious decisions at the meeting to avoid significant easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation has improved, reducing market risk aversion. On the supply side, refined copper production in May increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the port inventory of copper concentrates has declined to a five-year low. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in Chile has led to a short-term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees for smelters continue to stabilize and rise, with long-term contracts profitable and spot contracts still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. In August, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production of refined copper will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up. On the demand side, downstream demand is tepid during the off-season, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. Real estate investment and sales have declined, but the power grid and new energy sectors provide demand resilience. The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short-term demand and a loose supply-demand pattern. However, as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, domestic demand is expected to improve. Overall, with the Fed interest rate meeting approaching, the market is in a stalemate, and the market situation is highly uncertain. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the expected peak season demand provides support for the market. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamental Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in July was flat at 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut [5]. Recent Developments in the Copper Mining Sector - Jintian Co., Ltd. announced on August 13 that with the rapid development of the AI industry driving the growth of chip computing power demand, copper materials have become the core materials for advanced chip interconnection and heat dissipation due to their excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. The company's high-precision special-shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products have been mass-produced in the 3DVC new AI heat dissipation structure and have reached strategic cooperation with global leading heat dissipation module enterprises, and are applied in multiple top-level GPU heat dissipation solutions. The company's self-developed copper heat pipes, liquid-cooled copper tubes and other products have also been successfully introduced into the computing power servers of multiple leading enterprises [7]. - On August 14, foreign media reported that Chilean mining company Antofagasta's semi-annual report showed that its core profit increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Driven by the strong global copper demand and rising prices, its EBITDA increased from $1.39 billion in the same period last year to $2.23 billion, slightly higher than market expectations [9]. Analysis of LME Copper and SHFE Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 19, the highest price of SHFE copper during the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.97% and an interval decline of -0.16%. The highest price of LME copper during the week was $9,865/ton, the lowest was $9,680/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.88% and an interval decline of -1.58% [10]. - As of August 20, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and the number of domestic smelter maintenance increased, leading to a stronger spot premium. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [16]. Copper Supply Side - According to customs data, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week [19]. - The El Teniente copper mine under Codelco in Chile suffered a mine collapse on July 31, with a magnitude of 4.2, resulting in the death of six miners. The smelter restarted on August 13 [19]. - As of August 15, the spot TC in China was -37.65 dollars/dry ton, and the RC was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rise. The result of the mid-year long-term contract negotiation was set at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long-term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still in the red. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October [22][23]. - In June 2025, the import volume of scrap copper was 183,200 tons, higher than expected. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper reduced the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelters reduced their scrap copper usage rate [28]. - In July 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. The cumulative production from January to July was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. The smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production will not fluctuate significantly. However, production may be cut or halted in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up [28][29]. - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [29]. Copper Inventory Data - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory build-up speed has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous week and an increase of 28.76% from the previous month. The inventory build-up speed at COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, an increase of 1.16% from the previous week and an increase of 11.59% from the previous month [31]. - On August 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 94,300 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 88,100 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 6,200 tons, an increase of 800 tons from August 11 and unchanged from August 14. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase due to the arrival of export goods from some smelters [31]. - The SHFE inventory has remained at a low level with slight fluctuations and has not increased significantly. However, it increased by 2,423 tons compared to the previous week, reflecting weak downstream demand and a loose supply-demand pattern in the short term [31]. Downstream Terminal Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by approximately 2% in 2025 and by approximately 0.8% in 2026 [40]. - Downstream demand is tepid, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. However, the power grid and new energy sectors have strong resilience, providing support for copper prices [40]. - According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod in July 2025 was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The operating rate was lower than expected, and downstream cable procurement was cautious, putting pressure on copper rod processing fees. Refined copper rod enterprises showed unexpected production cuts, and the current operating load is at a historically low level. It is expected that the production reduction in August will be limited [40]. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, with a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also periodic restocking [40]. - From January to July, the retail sales of air conditioners increased by 16.7% year-on-year, maintaining a steady upward trend in the first half of the year. In August, the growth rate of the retail end turned negative for the first time, with a 6% and 19% decline in online and offline sales respectively in the first week of August. The domestic sales production plan for air conditioners in September was 5.082 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and the export production plan was 4.785 million units, a significant decrease of 14.6% [40]. - According to the National Energy Administration, the investment in power grid projects from January to June was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching a historical high for the same period. The investment in power source projects from January to June was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively. Power grid projects remain a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [46]. - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year-on-year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4.9566 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai copper, the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The fundamental situation has no significant change. The market is waiting for new drivers, with support at 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Thursday [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to frequent disturbances at the mine end and the approaching peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and the price is expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, it is recommended to view it as a weak and volatile market due to the weakening cost side [15]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is cooling, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [21]. - For urea, in the short term, it will mainly show a strong and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Urea rose more than 3%, PX and rapeseed meal rose more than 1%. Silicon iron fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon, alumina, soda ash, and eggs fell more than 2%. Stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, while treasury bond futures of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year all rose [6]. - As of 15:21 on August 19, in terms of capital flow, palm oil 2601, glass 2601, and soybean meal 2601 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [8]. Shanghai Copper - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of concentrate copper ore has decreased to a five - year low. The collapse of the El Teniente mine has led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees continue to rise steadily. There is only one smelter with a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production may decline in the later third quarter [10]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. Real estate still drags down demand, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating a weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: As of the week of August 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons compared with the previous week. The spot price of spodumene has been rising, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [11]. - Demand: The market's purchasing sentiment has increased, and there is a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. In the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to the approaching peak season and supply - side disturbances [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus [12]. - Demand: It is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. The inventory of crude oil and diesel has increased, and the overall oil product inventory continues to rise. The economic situation in the United States has raised concerns, which will increase the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter [12]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%. The estimated production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month but increased by 17.1% year - on - year [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries mostly increased last week, but the national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and rainfall [15]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises is around 84%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has decreased to about 25%. A new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded to 49.35%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is still high. It is expected to enter the peak season soon, and the operating rate of plastic weaving has slightly increased [16]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 82.5%. A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year has been put into operation recently, and the operating rate has slightly decreased [18]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased to 39.47%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. The orders of agricultural films and packaging films have decreased. The consumption off - season has not ended, and the inventory pressure is still high [18]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 80.33%. New production capacities will be put into production in August, September. The export expectation in the second half of the year has weakened [19][20]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has slightly decreased. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is large [19][20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The supply data has increased this period, the production of clean coal and raw coal has increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal has decreased [21]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production of downstream coke has increased while the inventory has decreased. However, the iron - water production has decreased this period, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The seventh round of coke price increase has started, but there is resistance from downstream customers [21]. Urea - Supply: The production of urea plants increased last week, and there were both shutdowns and restarts this period, with overall narrow fluctuations [22]. - Demand: Domestic demand is insufficient. The compound fertilizer factories are in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating rate has reached a historical high. The melamine operating rate has decreased, and the terminal furniture market is cold. The inventory of urea plants has increased and is at a five - year high [22][23].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮正在进行，关注谈判进程。前期抢出口订单基本结束，市 场对金九银十旺季有所期待。郑棉主力09可能临近交割月，期现价差回归动力增加。09短 期运行区间14000-14500。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15609，基差1534（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度7月预计期末库存823万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：2 ...