Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - This week, the bond market operated steadily with a significant expansion in issuance scale. A total of 881 interest rate bonds and credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1,188.874 billion yuan, indicating strong financing demand from various entities. The cumulative trading volume in the bond market was 77.2 trillion yuan, and the trading turnover reached 79.6 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume stable above 1.5 trillion yuan, showing abundant market liquidity and high trading activity [7]. - In the inter - bank market, the yields of major interest rate bonds generally declined, and market sentiment was positive. The short - end yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds were stable, fluctuating within the range of 1.3% - 1.33%, while the 30 - year ultra - long special Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2180%, a recent low. The duration center of bond funds rose to 3.1 years, and the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased, indicating stronger allocation willingness [7]. - In the past month (from November 29 to December 28, 2025), the yields of credit bonds declined by 0.64% overall. The decline in the medium - short - term (1 - 3 years) yields was significantly higher than that in the long - term (5 years and above), which only decreased by 0.13%. High - grade credit bonds such as AAA - rated medium - short - term notes and high - quality urban investment bonds remained attractive [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the spread between 3 - year corporate bonds and the same - term Treasury bonds narrowed to 46.84BP, reflecting the market's more optimistic pricing of the credit risk of medium - and high - grade credit bonds and continuous strengthening of allocation [7]. - This week, the central bank mainly conducted net repurchase operations in the open market, with a net repurchase of 45 billion yuan. The operating interest rate remained stable at 1.40%. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in January 2026 has increased [9]. - It is expected that in 2026, fiscal policy will be significantly front - loaded, especially in the first half of the year. The estimated issuance scale of local government special bonds is about 4.4 trillion yuan, and the estimated issuance scale of special Treasury bonds is about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Operation - This week, 881 interest rate bonds and credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1,188.874 billion yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 77.2 trillion yuan, and the turnover was 79.6 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion yuan [7]. - The yields of major interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bond yields were stable at 1.3% - 1.33%, and the 30 - year ultra - long special Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2180% [7]. - In the past month, the yields of credit bonds declined by 0.64% overall, with the medium - short - term yields dropping more significantly than the long - term ones. High - grade credit bonds and high - quality urban investment bonds were attractive [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the spread between 3 - year corporate bonds and the same - term Treasury bonds narrowed to 46.84BP [7]. Central Bank Operations and Market Expectations - This week, the central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net repurchase of 34.8 billion yuan [48]. - The central bank's net repurchase did not change the direction of loose money. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in January 2026 has increased [9]. Fiscal Policy Expectations - In 2025, 500 billion yuan of local special bond balance limits were issued. It is expected that in 2026, fiscal policy will be significantly front - loaded, with an estimated issuance scale of local government special bonds of about 4.4 trillion yuan and an estimated issuance scale of special Treasury bonds of about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. Market Liquidity - Recent market liquidity has been unexpectedly loose, with short - term interest rates continuously falling. The weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly decreased and continued to operate below 1.26%, while DR007 slightly increased by about 4bp due to year - end factors [36]. Foreign Bond Markets (US) - The US federal funds target rate and effective federal funds rate remained at a high level, with the federal funds target rate at 5.25% - 5.50% [78]. - The yields of US Treasury bonds showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different maturities also changed [83][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On December 24, the domestic butadiene market rose, with downstream buying following up normally and driving up the prices of synthetic rubber futures and spot goods in the afternoon, leading to a strong market atmosphere and significant price increases in some offers [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber remained flat at 76.76% compared with the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber increased to 566 yuan/ton [3]. - The market atmosphere changed greatly before and after noon today. Before noon, the premium offer space of most butadiene rubber traders narrowed, and the discount range of private resources for arbitrage increased. After noon, the overall market atmosphere was strong due to expectations of macro - policy benefits, and the price increase of the main domestic butadiene rubber suppliers further boosted the traders' price - holding offers [3]. - The impact of the production change of a Russian synthetic rubber enterprise's liquid butadiene rubber on the domestic BR9000 market and butadiene market was significantly weaker than previously expected [3]. - Strategy: BR fluctuates strongly; for arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting RU or NR [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of BR2602.SHF was 11,175 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan or 1.97%; the settlement price was 11,395 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan or 0.40%; the price dropped 4,086 yuan or 3.96% [3]. - The trading volume in the domestic market was 191,046, up 34,482 or 22.02%; the open interest was 156,564, and the warehouse receipt quantity was 23,490, up 980 or 4.35% [3]. Price Spreads - The spread between consecutive contracts showed different changes, such as the spread between the first and second contracts increased 5 yuan or 33.33%, the spread between the second and third contracts increased 10 yuan or 66.67% [3]. - The BR - RU spread was - 4,255 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or - 3.40%; the BR - NR spread was - 1,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.81% [3]. - The ratio of BR/7.33*SC was 1.1547, up 0.00 or 0.10% [3]. Crude Oil Market - WTI was at 55.90 dollars/barrel, down 0.84 dollars or - 1.48%; Brent was at 59.41 dollars/barrel, down 0.93 dollars or - 1.54% [3]. Butadiene Market - The delivered price in the Shandong Luzhong area was around 7,850 - 8,000 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 7,450 - 7,550 yuan/ton [3]. - The CFR China price of butadiene was 900 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars or 3.45%; the CIF US price was 860 dollars/ton, up 55 dollars or 6.83% [3]. Butadiene Rubber Market - The market prices in different regions such as Hangzhou, Jiangsu, Shandong, etc., showed certain declines, and the factory prices of some companies such as Nanjing Yangzi and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained stable. Sinopec's East China butadiene price was stable at 7,800 yuan/ton, and Sinopec's butadiene rubber ex - factory price increased 200 yuan/ton to 11,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The FOB China price of butadiene rubber was 1,425 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars or 2.89%; the CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Chain Indicators - The cost and profit indicators of carbon four extraction and oxidative dehydrogenation showed different changes, and the开工 rate and production volume of the butadiene rubber industry chain increased to varying degrees [3]. - The commercial inventory was 27,600 tons, up 1,100 tons or 4.15%; the trader inventory was 5,450 tons, up 960 tons or 17.61% [3]. Spread between Different Products - The spreads between high - cis BR, styrene - butadiene BR, Thai mixed - butadiene rubber, etc., showed different degrees of decline [3].

Group 1: Bond Market Trends - The bond market shows significant term differentiation, with long-term bonds failing to maintain the previous day's upward trend, and the ultra-long end weakening again [1] - The 30-year government bond yield briefly fell below 2.23%, but the overall rebound was weaker than the previous day, leading to a reversal in the afternoon [1] - The market interpreted the message regarding the necessity of significantly releasing liquidity through a reserve requirement ratio cut as bearish, causing a quick decline in bullish sentiment [1] Group 2: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of December 18, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) rose by 0.02%, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 106.63 yuan [2] - The company bond ETF has accumulated a year-to-date increase of 1.46% [2] - The trading volume for the company bond ETF was 5.81%, with a total transaction value of 1.588 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Scale and Inflows - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 27.345 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year [3] - The ETF's latest share count reached 256 million shares, also a new high in the past six months [3] - Over the past 16 days, the company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 1.647 billion yuan, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 672 million yuan [3] Group 4: Company Bond ETF Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - As of December 18, 2025, the tracking error for the company bond ETF over the past month was 0.008% [5] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index, which serves as a performance benchmark for investments in medium to high-grade corporate bonds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation, with expectations for monetary easing reignited by recent economic data, leading to a mixed performance in government bond futures and a modest decline in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down 0.19% to 111.39, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts saw slight increases of 0.05% and 0.03%, respectively [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 30-year special government bond yield down 1.55 basis points to 2.2675%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.849% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 1.86 basis points to 3.504% and the 30-year yield up 0.31 basis points to 4.847% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 0.2 basis points to 1.956% [4]. Primary Market - In Heilongjiang Province, the results of the local bond auction showed a bid-to-cover ratio exceeding 16 times, with the 5-year bond yield at 1.75% and the 10-year bond yield at 2.09% [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 135.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 18 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate up 0.2 basis points to 1.276% and the 7-day rate down 0.3 basis points to 1.429% [6]. Institutional Views - Citic Securities noted that the overall liquidity in the market is currently loose, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first half of next year [7]. - Huaxi Fixed Income suggested that the bond market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over redemption fee regulations and long-term bond supply, despite the expectation of monetary easing [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the bond market sentiment after the economic work conference from December 9th to December 15th, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - During the period from December 9th to December 15th, the sentiment of bond market sellers increased slightly, while that of buyers continued to decline, showing a K-shaped divergence. The market divergence has increased, and the year - end bond allocation market is still weak, waiting for the catalytic effect of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted index was 0.21, up 0.13 from December 2nd to December 8th. Some institutions' views turned bullish. Currently, 7 institutions are bullish, 15 are neutral, and 2 are bearish. 29% of institutions are bullish due to insufficient domestic demand, slow credit and social financing data, expectations of further easing policies, oversold technical indicators, and released negative factors. 63% are neutral as the market is insensitive to positive factors, the stock market attracts funds, and bond investors are cautious. 8% are bearish as the bond market's rebound may end, and price recovery and the equity market's spring rally may suppress the bond market [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted sentiment index was 0.00, lower than that from December 2nd to December 8th. The sentiment index continued to decline. Currently, 4 institutions are bullish, 17 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 16% of institutions are bullish because of increased economic fundamental pressure, stronger expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and positive signals from the economic work conference. 68% are neutral as the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still exists, potential regulatory policy changes increase market uncertainty, and traditional allocation funds lack motivation. 16% are bearish as there is a policy vacuum at the turn of the year, lack of policy support, and capital games overriding fundamental logic [13].

Group 1 - The domestic bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, particularly the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.84% [2][3] - Concerns about the redemption of "fixed income +" funds and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations are contributing to market anxiety [2][4] - The recent debt extension issues faced by Vanke have negatively impacted market sentiment, primarily affecting credit bonds but also influencing interest rate bonds due to redemption pressures [2][5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the bond market's incremental positive factors are limited, and the direction of monetary policy remains unclear, leading to weak overall market sentiment [4][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been conducting net withdrawals in the open market, but overall liquidity remains ample, with a recent net injection of 564 billion yuan [4][5] - Expectations for interest rate cuts are diminishing, with analysts indicating that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December, it could provide more room for domestic rate cuts [6][7] Group 3 - The adjustment of banks' deposit structures, particularly the removal of 5-year fixed deposit products, may signal a shortening of the duration of bank liabilities, impacting their bond holding behavior [7][8] - The PBOC's emphasis on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is seen as a key reference for the trend of long-term bond yields [8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, influenced by reduced expectations for interest rate cuts and concerns over "fixed income+" fund redemptions [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, the 10-year government bond yield rose to approximately 1.84%, with the 30-year bond yield nearing 2.20% [2] - The bond market has shown weakness despite stock market declines, with yields on various government bonds increasing since November [2][3] - Recent market sentiment has been negatively impacted by Vanke's bond extension issues, affecting credit bonds and causing some spillover effects on interest rate bonds [4] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Insurance companies are facing redemption pressures on "fixed income+" funds, leading to forced sales of equity assets and highly liquid bonds [3] - The market's low expectations for interest rate cuts have limited downward movement in bond yields, contributing to a weak market sentiment [3][5] - Some banks have recently withdrawn 5-year fixed deposit products, indicating a potential shift in their liability structure, which may affect their bond holding behavior [6][7] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation for interest rate cuts remains a key focus, with potential for adjustments in the near future depending on external factors such as the Federal Reserve's actions [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming months may see a shift in monetary policy, with a likelihood of rate cuts in early next year [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has been maintaining liquidity in the market, with recent net injections indicating a dynamic approach to monetary policy [3][4]

近期，债市呈箱体震荡走势，10年期国债收益率围绕1.8%小幅波动。短期来看，利空因素在于股市放 量上涨，风险偏好回升，对债市形成明显压制；利多因素在于宽松的资金面和刚刚公布的10月金融数据 偏弱。在风险偏好回暖与资金面宽松预期拉锯下，市场缺乏主线，短期震荡格局明显。 从国内经济基本面来看，10月CPI和PPI温和回升，但居民消费延续回落态势。与此同时，10月金融数据 转弱，一方面10月信贷季节性回落，另一方面财政对实体支持力度阶段性回落。"弱现实"仍在延续，对 债市形成支撑。 从潜在利空因素来看，一是部分经济数据表现具备韧性，降低了年末加码宽松的紧迫性。二是风险偏好 变化，国内权益市场走势偏强，通过股债"跷跷板"效应压制债市情绪。三是近期美元和美债收益率集体 上涨，在一定程度上限制了国内利率下行的空间。 从政策层面来看，市场对四季度降准降息的预期升温。央行在三季度货币政策报告中重提"跨周期调 节"，预示政策视角更重长期。财政政策方面，5000亿元地方债务结存限额下达，后续基建投资可能形 成脉冲。宽松预期是当前债市核心支撑。另外，近期资金面仍偏宽松，短端利率保持低位，这也给债市 提供了支撑。 从海外市场环境来看 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market had a weak and volatile performance with a flattened and upward - shifted yield curve. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, leading to some profit - taking. Rumors about the new public bond fund redemption fee rules and the stock market's rebound also affected the bond market. The short - end yield increased more than the long - end, narrowing the term spread [3][4]. - This week (the week of November 10), the bond market is expected to have a warm - biased and volatile performance. The increasing economic downward pressure in the fourth quarter, reduced supply pressure, and institutional pre - emptive allocation support bond - buying. However, the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is not high, and the stock market's resilience and the unannounced new public redemption fee rules limit the bond - buying space. The release of October's financial and economic data may affect the bond market's volatility direction, and it is expected that the year - on - year growth rates of major economic indicators in October may decline compared to September, supporting the bond market's warm - biased volatility [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market adjusted last week, with the long - term bond yield rising significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures' main contract fell 0.20% cumulatively. On November 8, the 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.88bp, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.19bp compared to the previous Friday, narrowing the term spread [4]. - From November 3 to 7, the bond market showed different trends each day. On November 4, the central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and on November 6 and 7, rumors about the new redemption fee rules affected the bond market [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, 53 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 514 billion yuan, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was 288.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of treasury bonds increased, while those of local government bonds and policy - bank financial bonds decreased [11]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds were 3.53, 3.77, and 21.98 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the year - on - year export growth rate turned negative. The export value decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, 9.4 percentage points lower than in September. The import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year, 6.4 percentage points lower than in September [13]. - In October, the CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.2%. The PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The CPI's positive turn was due to factors such as rising vegetable and service prices, and the PPI's narrowing decline was related to improved industry supply - demand and rising commodity prices [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data increased, including the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt plant operating rate. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline [15]. - In terms of demand, the BDI index and the CCFI increased, while the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices rose, and most commodity prices fell [15]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from the open market last week through reverse repurchase operations [26]. - Last week, R007 and DR007 both decreased, the joint - stock bank inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate continued to decline, the national - share direct discount rate for each term increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased overall [27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market has shown a volatile downward trend recently due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The central bank's restart of open - market Treasury bond trading and the marginal weakening of macro - data have strengthened the expectation of policy easing, providing core support for the bond market. However, the strengthening of the equity market and the approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" have caused short - term disturbances to market sentiment. Despite short - term disturbances, the core logic supporting the bond market's improvement at the end of the year remains solid. As the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes, bond market sentiment is expected to continue to recover, and short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities [2][87][88]. - The central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading in October was relatively restrained. It is a regular operation to enrich the liquidity - injection toolbox, bringing longer - term and cheaper funds to the market, which is expected to maintain overall market liquidity and ease the fund - stratification phenomenon. The weakening of October's economic data may lead to a marginal increase in the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, which could boost the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. The independent strength of the A - share market has temporarily boosted risk appetite and suppressed the bond market, but this suppression may be only temporary at the end of the year. The approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" has recently increased short - term market disturbances, but there is a possibility of a "sell - the - rumor, buy - the - news" market trend after the policy is officially implemented. Market forces are undergoing structural changes, with the active trading forces retreating, while rural commercial banks, which were previously conservative, have started to replenish their positions significantly, which is important for warming market sentiment and restoring confidence [2][88]. - If there is no increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts to catalyze the bond - market rally, the market may show a narrow - range downward oscillation from November to December. Considering the weakening economic data, the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may increase marginally, boosting the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range. For allocation, it is advisable to select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, adopting the "coupon + carry - trade" income approach, and exploring the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [2][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Important Matters - In October, the central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading net - injected 20 billion yuan of liquidity. Through various central - bank loans, a total of 174.8 billion yuan of liquidity was injected, and through various open - market operations, a total of - 205.3 billion yuan of liquidity was injected. Among them, the net - injection scale of open - market Treasury bond trading reached 20 billion yuan [5]. - In November, the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase was carried out at the same volume. On November 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan buy - back repurchase operation with a 3 - month (91 - day) term, and the maturity scale of the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase in November was also 700 billion yuan [6]. - From January to October 2025, China's total import and export value was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, China's export value in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund - Rate Trends - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the central bank injected 495.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with 2068 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net - injection of - 1572.2 billion yuan. From November 10 to November 14, 2025, it is expected that 495.8 billion yuan of base money will be matured and withdrawn. The policy rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse - repurchase was 1.40% from November 3 to November 7. As of November 7, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.392%, 1.468%, 1.332%, and 1.413% respectively, with changes of - 1.53BP, - 2.46BP, 1.37BP, and - 4.21BP compared to October 31. The interest - rate centers also changed to some extent [11][12][15]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market of CDs, last week, the total CD issuance scale was 527.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 206.66 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 376.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 187.44 billion yuan from the previous week, and the net - financing scale was 150.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.22 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the 45th week of 2025, the cumulative annual CD issuance scale had reached 29.04 trillion yuan. The institution with the largest CD issuance scale last week was city commercial banks, with a net - financing scale of 182.16 billion yuan. The CD issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 118.15 billion yuan, 127.78 billion yuan, 237.78 billion yuan, and 48.69 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 22.2%, 24.0%, 44.7%, and 9.1% of the total issuance. The CD issuance rates of various types of banks decreased to some extent compared to the previous week [18][21][24]. - In the secondary market of CDs, the yields of CDs of all maturities increased overall. The yields of AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs increased by 6.05BP, 1.13BP, 0.73BP, 0.37BP, and 0.50BP respectively, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 54.41% quantile level [28]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, last week, the supply of discounted Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury bonds increased. A total of 54 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 513.997 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 318.843 billion yuan. From January to November, the net - financing pace of local government bonds was generally faster than that of Treasury bonds. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative net - financing scale of various Treasury bonds was about 5.85 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 6.44 trillion yuan, with a more obvious increase in the supply scale of central - government finances compared to the 2021 - 2024 average [31]. - In the secondary market, the bullish market of the restarted Treasury bond trading has temporarily ended. As the implementation of the "Sales New Rules" approaches, interest rates have generally shown a volatile upward trend. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds and the corresponding yields of China Development Bank bonds have all changed to some extent. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly. The liquidity premium of active bonds has generally increased. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [31][45]. - The supply of Treasury bonds increased significantly last week. Among them, 5 Treasury bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 295.89 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 225.8 billion yuan; 32 local government bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 91.607 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of - 5.457 billion yuan; 17 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 126.5 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 98.5 billion yuan. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds had reached 2.06 trillion yuan, mainly with long - and ultra - long - term maturities, and the issuance scale of bonds with maturities of 10 years and above was about 1.81 trillion yuan, accounting for about 88.02%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Henan, accounting for about 35.67% of the total issuance scale [40][42]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading fluctuated around a high - level center, with an average of about 7.97 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying power of state - owned banks weakened, and they continued to prefer to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years, but the buying scale decreased compared to the previous week. Rural commercial banks changed from selling to buying, with a total weekly increase in holdings of less than 5 billion yuan, which was a significant improvement compared to the previous week's net - selling of over 124 billion yuan. The承接 power of funds weakened, and securities companies sold about 31 billion yuan net. In contrast, the insurance industry's willingness to increase its holdings increased marginally, and it increased its holdings of policy - financial bonds with maturities of over 5 years [61][71]. - In September 2025, the overall inter - bank market institutional leverage ratio was about 118.68%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from August. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in September were about 109.85%, 192.23%, and 133.25% respectively [61]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.37 trillion yuan, a change of about 430 billion yuan from the previous week. The average scale of leveraged trading last week was about 7.97 trillion yuan, and the daily leveraged - trading scales from November 3 to November 7 were 7.69 trillion yuan, 7.93 trillion yuan, 8.09 trillion yuan, 8.42 trillion yuan, and 7.72 trillion yuan respectively [67]. - Based on the net - buying data of institutional investors in the past 20 trading days, the recent average cost of adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds for major trading players such as rural commercial banks, securities companies, funds, and other products is around 1.830%. Rural commercial banks' behavior of adding positions at high prices was obvious last week, while the position - adding actions of securities companies and funds cooled down [74]. - According to the calculation methods in relevant reports, since the current spread between local government bonds and Treasury bonds is relatively high, both commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local government bonds [81]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - In terms of high - frequency data, last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 3.42% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged at 0.00%, the settlement price of cathode - copper futures decreased by 1.54%, the cement - price index increased by 0.06%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 0.74%. The CCFI index increased by 3.60% and the BDI index increased by 7.02% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork increased by 2.42% and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.58% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude - oil futures and WTI crude - oil futures decreased by 2.60% and 2.54% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 7.08 [84]. 6. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue to recover as the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes. Short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range, select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, and explore the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [87][88][89].