证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 26 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3455.97 | 1.04 | | 深证成指 | 10393.72 | 1.72 | | 创业板指 | 2128.39 | 3.11 | | 科创 50 | 995.61 | 1.73 | | 北证 50 | 1437.63 | 1.38 | | 沪深 300 | 3960.07 | 1.44 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 670810 | 520312 | 12.38 | 1.28 | | 深证成指 | 228707 | 186901 | 20.29 | 2.15 | | 创业板指 | 59752 | 47299 | 27.87 | 3.87 | | 科创 50 | 34795 | 22984 | 54.42 | 4.17 | | 北证 50 | ...

Group 1 - The core concept of style rotation is based on the characteristics of ETFs, with common types including large-cap vs. small-cap rotation and growth vs. value rotation [1] - The logic of style rotation relies on two driving factors of equity asset prices: earnings and valuation, where earnings are the key determinant of style strength [1] - The performance difference between growth and value stocks is highly correlated with their earnings growth rate difference, indicating that when the earnings growth gap widens, growth stocks are likely to outperform value stocks [1] Group 2 - Large-cap stocks are more influenced by economic cycles due to their higher representation in the national economy, leading to stronger performance in economic upturns compared to small-cap stocks [1] - The liquidity environment significantly impacts stock valuations, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to liquidity changes; they tend to perform better in expanding liquidity conditions, while large-cap stocks perform better when liquidity tightens [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant improvement in market data for the second quarter of 2025, with brokerage firms experiencing a year-on-year increase in trading volume and new account openings [4] - The report anticipates a continued high growth rate for listed brokerage firms' mid-year reports, projecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 50% [4] - The report emphasizes the favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and boosting the economy, which are expected to benefit the brokerage sector [5] - The report identifies three main investment themes within the brokerage sector: undervalued leading brokers with strong retail business, high beta financial technology stocks, and brokers benefiting from the expansion and activity of the Hong Kong IPO market [6] Summary by Sections Market Data Improvement - In Q2 2025, the average daily stock trading volume reached 12.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 48% [4] - The number of new accounts opened from January to May 2025 was 10.95 million, up 30% year-on-year [4] - The margin trading scale as of June 24 was 1.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 22% [4] Investment Banking and IPOs - The IPO scale from January to June 2025 was 37.1 billion, with 50 projects, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% [4] - The report notes a significant increase in IPO activity in Q2 2025, with a scale of 23.6 billion and 30 projects, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75% [4] Policy Environment - The report discusses the "1+6" policy measures introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which are expected to facilitate IPOs for unprofitable companies [5] - The report mentions a joint guideline from the central bank and other departments aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the economy [5] Valuation and Fund Allocation - The report indicates that public funds are significantly underweight in the non-bank financial sector, with a notable need for reallocation [6] - As of June 25, the brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios were 1.44 and 20.75, respectively, indicating that valuations remain low [6]

金融界6月25日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证华夏AH经济成长指数 (AH经济成长，931378)报6611.27 点。 从中证华夏AH经济成长指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比52.26%、上海证券交易所占比 31.63%、深圳证券交易所占比16.12%、北京证券交易所占比0.00%。 从中证华夏AH经济成长指数持仓样本的行业来看，可选消费占比20.41%、工业占比19.36%、通信服务 占比16.20%、信息技术占比11.50%、金融占比8.89%、主要消费占比8.56%、原材料占比5.81%、医药卫 生占比4.67%、公用事业占比1.76%、能源占比1.67%、房地产占比1.18%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一交易 日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期调整 日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中 剔除。样本股公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。当中证港股通中国 内地企业综合指数样本发生变动时，指数进行相应调整。 ...

因为 A 股市场为了保护股民利益收紧，这两年来港交所这次捡了不少漏，尤其对现金流较差早期融资节奏太 快的企业，因为资金链和盈利性问题，只能选择跑到港股上市，这使得 A 股错失不少机器人企业。 为了抢救市场， 6 月 18 日，在 2025 陆家嘴论坛上证监会主席 吴清 表示，创业板正式启用第三套标准， 支持优质未盈利创新企业上市。将继续充分发挥科创板示范效应，加力推出进一步深化改革的 1+6 政策措 施，重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套标准 ( 允许符合国家战略、突破关键核心技术且市场认可度高的企 业，在无盈利情况下以预计市值 40 亿元门槛上市 ) 上市 。 证监会表示在持续抓好 " 科创板八条 " 落地实施的基础上，以设置专门层次为抓手，重启未盈利企业适用科 创板第五套标准上市，推出一揽子更具包容性、适应性的制度改革，着力打通支持优质科技型企业发展的堵点 难点，同时进一步加强投资者合法权益保护。一方面，设置科创板科创成长层，在科创成长层的定位、企业入 层和调出条件、强化信息披露和风险揭示、增加投资者适当性管理等方面明确具体要求。另一方面，围绕增强 优质科技型企业的制度包容性适应性，推出 6 项改革举措。 值 ...

【导读】沪指创年内新高，公募解读后市 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 对下半年市场维持中性偏乐观 展望后市，景顺长城基金表示，年初以来中国在AI、军工和创新药等领域取得突破，创新叙事不仅提振国内投资者信心，也使外资重新认识 中国的创新能力；美元步入下行周期利好人民币资产，A股和港股在流动性层面相对受益；市场估值仍然具备吸引力，尤其是相比债市具有 较高性价比，因此，对A股市场保持乐观。 熟悉的 " 牛味 " 又回来了! 6月25日， A股三大指数集体走强 。 截至 收盘，沪指涨1.0 4 %，创年内新高， 报收于 3455.97点；深证成指涨1.72%， 报收于 10393.72点；创业板指涨3.11%， 报收于 2128.39点 。 行业板块多数收涨，多元金融、船舶制造、证券、航天航空、半导体 等 板块涨幅居前，采掘、石油、农药 等 板块跌幅居前。 今日A股缘何大涨？后续市场怎么走？哪些板块值得关注？对此，中国基金报采访了景顺长城、招商、中欧、创金合信、信达澳亚、博时、 永赢等多家基金公司。 多位业内人士表示，多重因素导致今日A股大涨。风险偏好改善，对A股市场保持乐观，但未来仍需关注不确定性，可关注金融、科技成 长、 ...

来 源： 每晚一卷书 （ID: JYXZ89896） 洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下 蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的延伸阅读。 凡是经历，皆是成长。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听洞见主播安东尼 朗读音频 作 者：Leyla 松下幸之助曾经说过，自己的成功之道归因于三点： 以前常生病，生活困顿潦倒，而且学历是零。 因为身体不好，所以他特别珍惜时间，总想着在短暂的生命中创出一番事业； 因为贫穷潦倒，他不得不十分努力，所以被迫成为一个不会因为一点困难就放弃的人； 再加上完全没有学历可言，他只好持续学习、终生不辍，来提升自己的水平。 后来他就明白了一个顶级思维： 凡事发生，其实皆有利于我。 正如生命中那些看似不利的条件，却造就了他的辉煌。 人生所有的磨难，换个角度看，其实都是成功的垫脚石。 想通了这一点，你就不再惧怕任何困难的来临。 逢低谷，是老天给你的转机。 作家张德芬说： "当你脚下的那块安全毯突然被抽走的时候，这是人生的关键时刻。你的反应，都一再地左右 着你此后的人生格局和布局。" 许多挫折的来临，看似是命运 ...

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.06.16-2025.06.20。 先调整才能见彩虹，防守待反击。A股短期内缺乏催化，市场波动压力有所增加。在中央汇金托底 的背景下，大盘权重风格下行空间相对有限，建议短期可关注银行、红利低波等防守方向。新消 费、创新药等题材以及小微盘方向短期调整风险偏高，投资者可适度等待，在风险释放之后，将 迎来更具性价比的布局机会。从成交占比来看，科技方向4月以来持续回落，当前风险相对较低， 在高弹性方向上的短期性价比更优。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，大盘价值风格仍占优势；市场风格波动方面，大小盘风格波动 下降，价值成长风格波动保持在近一年低位。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度保 持在近一年低位，成分股上涨比例有所下降，行业轮动速度上升；交易集中度方面，前100个股成 交集中度以及前5行业成交额占比均维持在近一年较低水平。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率 保持在近一年低位，市场换手率略有上升。 商品市场方面， 上周，黑色、贵金属板块趋势强度下降，农产品板块趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ETF market is undergoing a significant transformation from 2024 to April 2025, with the total scale of non-monetary ETFs increasing from 1.85 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 3.89 trillion yuan, marking a 110% growth [1]. ETF Market Scale Changes - The ETF market is experiencing a shift in dominance from individual investors to institutional investors, with institutional holdings in stock ETFs reaching 62.14% and in bond ETFs reaching 84.90% [4]. - State-owned institutions and insurance companies are the main contributors to this growth, with state-owned holdings increasing by 922.4 billion yuan to 1.05 trillion yuan in the second half of 2024, and insurance funds increasing by 113.2 billion yuan to 260.7 billion yuan [4]. Institutional Preferences - Institutions are actively investing in core broad-based ETFs, with a total increase of 866.8 billion yuan in 300 ETFs and 500 ETFs, accounting for 59.3% of total inflows into stock ETFs [5]. - There is a strong preference for high-dividend assets among institutions, driven by the challenges of low interest rates, with the total market size of dividend-themed index funds reaching 173.55 billion yuan, an increase of 20.09 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [6]. Insurance Capital Activity - Insurance capital has been particularly active in acquiring dividend assets, with 16 instances of stake increases in listed companies, focusing on sectors like banking, utilities, energy, and logistics [9]. - Ping An Life has been notably active, making six acquisitions in Hong Kong-listed bank stocks, becoming a key player in this market [9]. Dividend ETF Characteristics - The main dividend index sectors are characterized by essential or monopolistic attributes, such as energy, resources, telecommunications, and utilities, benefiting from national policy incentives [10]. - Despite the growth in dividend ETFs, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of returns, as over 50% of the 56.32% return from the dividend low-volatility index in 2023-2024 came from the banking and coal sectors [11]. Market Outlook - The resilience of dividend assets has been highlighted, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing a favorable trend in dividend style since March [11]. - Future expectations suggest that while growth styles may dominate, dividend styles will exhibit a higher probability of success due to their high dividend yields and low volatility [11].

Group 1 - The Cathay CSI 500 ETF (561350) experienced a daily rebound of 1.1% [1] - The CSI 500 Index, which includes major companies like Tencent and Alibaba, reflects a diverse industry distribution covering consumer discretionary, industrials, and communication services [1] - The CSI A500 Index-related ETFs showed high trading activity, with multiple products exceeding 1 billion yuan in daily trading volume, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities reported that the CSI 500 Index fell by 1.75% over the past week, with a significant PE contraction of 1.35x [2] - The current PE, PB, and PS percentiles for the CSI 500 are between 60% and 95%, while the PCF is in the 80% to 90% range, suggesting attractive long-term valuation compared to the broader market [2] - The consumer staples sector, particularly food and beverage, shows significant valuation recovery potential, with 3-year and 5-year average valuation percentiles at 7.47%/4.49% and 14.08%/10.38% respectively [2]