Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensification of the Middle - East tension has led to a decline in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth in May was generally stable, but short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the Iranian parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz. Global risk aversion increased, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite declined. Domestic: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, but the short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. For assets, the stock index will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the national debt will fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; for the commodity sector, the black metals will fluctuate at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; energy and chemicals will have increased volatility, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as oil and gas development, short - drama games, and precious metals. The fundamentals showed that China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The short - term risk preferences were affected by the Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish statement. The market focused on the Middle - East risk, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market had a high - level oscillating correction. The Fed's June meeting maintained the interest rate and made hawkish remarks. The Israel - Iran conflict escalated, and the US military directly attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it may impact the global capital market [4]. Black Metals Steel - Last Friday, the domestic steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and the trading volume remained low. The "national subsidy" for home appliances continued. The Fed's hawkish signal and the rebound of the US dollar index suppressed commodity prices. The demand had some resilience, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 16.08 tons week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply increased by 9.68 tons week - on - week, mainly contributed by building materials. The steel market will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5][6]. Iron Ore - Last Friday, the iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. The daily output of molten iron increased slightly, and the steel mills' profits were still good. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 157 tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 224 tons week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 101 tons. The short - term fundamentals were strong, but the rebound of coking coal prices had a certain inhibitory effect. The iron ore price will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Last Friday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short term. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron in different regions were stable. The supply of silicon manganese in the south was low, and the cost was inverted. The supply of silicon iron might increase. The market will mainly oscillate in a range in the short term, and if energy prices continue to strengthen, short - term rebound opportunities can be concerned [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Fed's June meeting was more hawkish. The central government will allocate 138 billion yuan in the third and fourth quarters. The copper production is at a high level, the demand has a marginal weakening risk, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has stimulated copper to flow into the US, overdrawing future import demand. It is necessary to wait for the right time to short, and pay attention to the negotiation results and tariff policies [8]. Aluminum - 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters. The aluminum price increased mainly due to the external market. The downstream demand has a weakening risk, the inventory reduction of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased. The "trade - in" policy has some uncertainties [8]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season of demand, and the manufacturing orders have grown weakly. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9][10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, the processing fee is low, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 46.84%. The demand is in the off - season, and the orders have decreased. The price will oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [10]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. If Iran retaliates, the geopolitical situation will be at high risk, and the oil price will rise. The short - term fundamentals have limited influence, and the seasonal inventory reduction supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see the geopolitical development [11]. Asphalt - The oil price oscillates at a high level, and the asphalt price has a slight upward breakthrough. The shipment has improved, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the spot price lags behind. It will follow the oil price to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [11]. PX - The upstream cost has increased due to the geopolitical risk, and the demand has increased due to the slight increase in PTA's operation rate. The tight supply situation will continue, and it will follow the oil price to oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The oil price drives up the absolute price, and the port inventory is low. The downstream will cut production, and the 6 - month contract will release some pressure. It will follow the oil price to rise [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The impact of Iranian facilities is expected in August, and the domestic and foreign facilities' operation rates may recover. The inventory reduction has slowed down, and the follow - up increase may be limited [12]. Short - fiber - The oil price increase drives up the polyester price, and the short - fiber will follow the polyester sector to oscillate strongly. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and it will follow the polyester price to rise [12]. Methanol - The supply may decrease significantly, and the upward driving force is strong. But the continuous price increase squeezes the downstream profit, and there is a risk of MTO/MTP shutdown [12]. PP - The production is increasing, the downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and the oil price increase drives up the PP price. It is necessary to pay attention to the Israel - Iran conflict [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, the downstream demand has little change, and the oil - based cost support is strengthening. The market sentiment has improved, and the price will continue to strengthen with increased short - term fluctuations [13]. Urea - The supply is high, the agricultural demand has not increased significantly, and the compound fertilizer operation rate has decreased. Although the port collection demand is planned to increase, the fundamentals are weak. But the geopolitical conflict drives up the price, and the downward space is limited [13]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The rainfall in the production area has alleviated the drought. The EPA's RVO policy for 2026 - 2027 is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil. The 2025/26 US soybeans are expected to have low inventory, and the fund's net long - position holdings are increasing [14]. Corn - The arrival volume of Shandong's deep - processing enterprises is low, and the purchase price supports the Northeast corn. The wheat substitution and the release of old corn may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn in the short term [15]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - The oil mills' high - operation rate makes the soybean meal supply and demand loose, and the domestic basis is expected to be stable. The rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market. It is necessary to pay attention to the China - Canada trade policy [16]. Oils and Fats - The international oils and fats have a market premium due to the energy - related risk. The short - term long - market situation will continue, but the external market changes have a direct impact, and the risk is high. It is advisable to participate cautiously [16]. Live Pigs - The group's weight - reduction efforts are small, the benchmark - area spot market is stable, and the slaughter volume has decreased in the off - season. The pig price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The range - bound market will be stable but may have stronger fluctuations [17].

早间，原油、黄金纷纷开盘走高，而美国股指期货开盘后走低。 消息面上，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安 全委员会手中。 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部的波斯湾，是海湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道。 分析人士指出，若伊朗采取报复措施，封锁霍尔木兹海峡，全球五分之一的石油供应将面临重大中断，油价或突破100美元。 根据美军参谋长联席会议主席凯恩提供的时间表， 美东时间21日18时40分（伊朗当地时间22日2时10分），领头的B-2轰炸机向伊朗福尔多 核设施第一处目标点投下2枚钻地弹。 美共和党一众议员：特朗普违宪 当地时间6月22日，美国共和党众议员托马斯·马西称，特朗普授权打击伊朗核设施的决定违宪，他警告称，共和党明年可能会因这一举动失 去众议院多数席位。 特朗普执意袭击伊朗 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月22日，一位白宫高级官员表示，美国总统特朗普21日下达了袭击伊朗核设施的最终命令，并指示国防部长赫 格塞思继续推进袭击行动。 美国副总统万斯6月22日在接受美国国家广播公司采访时也称，特朗普在炸弹投下前几 ...

周内（6月16日至6月20日），大宗商品期货涨跌不一，集运欧线和基本金属板块领跌，能源化工板块和 黑色系板块领涨。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨4.93%、原油上涨8.82%、碳酸锂下跌1.51%；黑 色系板块，焦炭周上涨2.59%、焦煤上涨2.65%；基本金属板块，沪镍周下跌1.37%、沪铜下跌0.03%、 沪锡下跌1.19%；农产品板块，生猪周上涨0.76%、豆粕上涨0.85%、棕榈油上涨4.86%；航运板块，集 运欧线周下跌8.61%。 交易行情热点 热点一：中东冲突升级扰动原油市场，机构分歧油价走势预期 周内原油价格延续强势，布伦特原油本周涨幅2.85%，收77.32美元/桶；美原油涨幅1.18%，收74.04美 元/桶。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯 法罕三处核设施的袭击，伊朗关键的核浓缩设施已被彻底摧毁，如果伊朗"不能实现和平"，美国可能会 攻击更多目标。 原油市场成为本轮中东冲突影响最直接的资产类别，正在努力应对特朗普在伊朗和以色列冲突中的下一 步行动。 市场分析认为，虽然以色列和伊朗的冲突（下称"伊以冲突"）尚 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 6000 points for about two weeks, closing at 5967.84 points, with a weekly decline of 0.15% [1] - The Nasdaq index closed at 19447.41 points, down 0.51%, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.08% to 42206.82 points [1] - The overall market performance indicates a mixed trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing slight declines while the Dow Jones experienced a minor increase [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2] - Fed officials project two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with inflation expected to rise to 3% and unemployment to 4.5% by that time [2] - The Fed's stance reflects concerns over worsening inflation and economic growth slowing to 1.4% [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Risks - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, may increase market volatility [1][4] - RBC warns that the S&P 500 could drop to a range of 4800 to 5200 points, indicating a potential decline of up to 20% due to these tensions [4] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns are leading to a cautious outlook for the S&P 500 index [5] Group 4: Global Market Outlook - A shift in investment sentiment is noted, with a majority of fund managers believing international markets will outperform U.S. markets over the next five years [5][6] - The potential for a global recession due to trade wars is highlighted as a significant risk, with 47% of fund managers identifying it as a major concern [5] - The current market environment presents opportunities for diversifying investments across different regions and asset classes [5]

黄金消息面解析：金价上周五持稳，但上周金价下跌1.8%。收盘于3368一线，最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）声明强化了美联储的谨慎立场，将利率 维持在4.25%–4.50%区间。但声明同时下调了今年预期的降息次数，这令金价承压下行，另外，美国国债收益率变化不大但小幅上升，反映出市场风险情绪 趋稳。10年期国债收益率上升超过2个基点，至4.421%，30年期国债收益率升至4.924%。收益率上升往往对黄金等无收益资产构成压力，进一步抑制金价上 行动能。美联储未立即启动宽松政策，加之美元走强和地缘风险紧迫性下降，均加剧了抛售压力。除非紧张局势再度升温或美联储意外转向，否则短期金价 预测指向进一步走弱。 黄金技术面分析：黄金自3500历史高位见顶回落至3120，连续拉高后因市场避险情绪减退，于3452再次承压回落；上周开盘3433一线，上周五最低至3340反 弹，收线于3368一线，周线收阴，但仍高于5周均线，日图录得一根十字星，K线组合排列偏空，但也守住了中轨支撑，如上图，4小时级别维持在一个上升 通道内运行，上周行情未能下破通道下沿线，下方空间无法进一步打开，行情在通道下沿线3340附近支撑反弹，暂时有止跌 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions following the US airstrikes on Iran have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar in Asian trading [1] - Oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude futures rising by 11% to $77 per barrel, as traders brace for potential further increases amid ongoing conflict [6] - The S&P 500 index has shown resilience, only down about 3% from its historical high in February, indicating that investors expect the conflict to remain localized [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to the conflict is mixed, with some believing it could limit Iran's nuclear ambitions while others see it as a potential escalation [7] - The dollar has appreciated approximately 0.9% since the conflict began, but this increase is relatively modest given its traditional role as a safe-haven currency [6] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz is a critical concern, as such an action would significantly impact oil supply and market stability [3][12] Group 3 - Market participants have reduced stock holdings in anticipation of conflict escalation, with the MSCI global index down 1.5% since mid-June [3] - The bond market has shown a complex reaction, with US Treasury yields initially falling but then reversing due to inflation concerns, resulting in minimal overall change since June 13 [6] - Analysts predict that if oil prices remain high, it could lead to increased political risks for the Trump administration, particularly as midterm elections approach [9][11]

美国对伊朗三大主要核设施的打击正值全球经济的脆弱时刻，其前景现在取决于伊朗的报复力度。 世界银行、经济合作与发展组织和国际货币基金组织最近几个月都下调了全球经济增长预测。 石油或天然气价格的任何大幅上涨，或冲突进一步升级造成的贸易动荡，都将成为世界经济的又一掣 肘。 这在很大程度上取决于近期发生的事件。伊朗外交部长阿拉格奇说，美国的袭击"令人愤慨，并将造成 永久的后果"。他援引《联合国宪章》中关于自卫的规定，称伊朗保留捍卫其主权、利益和人民的所有 选择。 彭博经济公司认为伊朗有三种应对方案： 袭击美国在该地区的人员和资产； 以区域能源基础设施为目标； 使用水雷或骚扰通过的船只关闭霍尔木兹海峡海上咽喉要道 Ziad Daoud、Tom Orlik和Jennifer Welch认为，在霍尔木兹海峡关闭的极端情况下，原油可能会飙升至每 桶130美元以上。这可能使美国夏季的CPI接近4%，从而促使美联储和其他央行推迟未来降息的时间。 全世界每天约有五分之一的石油供应要通过霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡位于伊朗和沙特阿拉伯等海湾阿拉伯 邻国之间。 包括Ziad Daoud在内的彭博经济公司分析师在一份报告中写道："我们将拭目以待 ...

Group 1 - Brent crude oil increased by 5.7%, reaching $81.40 [1] - Spot gold rose by 0.8%, priced at $3,395 [1] - U.S. Treasury futures remained flat [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.8% [1] - Following a recent airstrike ordered by President Trump on Iranian nuclear facilities, U.S. Defense Secretary stated that the U.S. has largely destroyed Iran's nuclear program [1] - Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the final decision resting with Iran's Supreme National Security Council [1]

Group 1 - The Israeli stock market showed resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with the TA-125 index opening up 1% and reaching a historical high, reflecting investor confidence in the country's economic fundamentals [1] - The strong performance of the TA-35 index, which opened with a gain of 0.9%, further confirms the positive sentiment among investors regarding Israel's ability to manage geopolitical risks [1] - In contrast, the Egyptian stock index experienced a significant decline of 1.5%, indicating investor concerns about regional stability and the potential chain reactions from U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] Group 2 - Egypt's economy is highly dependent on energy supplies, particularly natural gas imports from Israel, making it sensitive to disruptions in energy supply chains [2] - The decision by Israel to close the Leviathan gas field directly impacts Egypt's energy supply expectations, leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding Egypt's economic outlook [2]

当地时间6月22日，一所位于中东、由美国海军监管的海事信息联合中心发出警告称，在美国对伊朗核 设施发动打击后，与美国有关联的船只目前面临"高风险"。"目前评估，与美国有关联的商船在红海和 亚丁湾面临的威胁等级为'高'。"该中心在向航运业发布的通告中写道。通告指出，该风险等级的判 定，是在美国对伊朗核设施实施打击，以及胡塞武装针对美国相关海运资产发出直接威胁言论之后作出 的。此前，也门胡塞武装在21日表示，若美国攻击伊朗，他们将袭击与美国有关联的船只。(央视新闻) ...