Core Viewpoint - As of July 30, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 955.37 tons of gold, reflecting a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day, amid a significant drop in spot gold prices [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The current total holding of the SPDR Gold Trust is 955.37 tons of gold [6]. - The holdings decreased by 0.86 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 30, spot gold prices fell sharply, breaking below the $3,300 mark, reaching a low of $3,267.95 per ounce, and closing at $3,274.92 per ounce, down $51.66 or 1.55% [6]. - Gold prices initially maintained above $3,330 per ounce but dropped significantly during the U.S. trading session due to economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest decisions [6]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. ADP employment report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, indicating a robust labor market and rising corporate hiring intentions [6]. - The second-quarter economic growth in the U.S. surpassed expectations, reducing the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [6]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with increasing internal dissent as two voting members supported a rate cut [7]. - The Fed's dovish statement suggests a higher likelihood of a rate cut in September, although Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on this during the press conference, which tempered market expectations for a rate cut [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Following the breach of the $3,300 level, technical indicators for gold have worsened, indicating further downside risk [7]. - The short-term support level is around $3,245, and if breached, gold prices could target $3,200 and the May 15 low of $3,120 [7].

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会货币政策会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。面临特朗普政府不断要求降息的压力，这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次 决定维持利率不变。 此外，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美联储持有国债的缩表速度为50亿美元；持有MBS的缩表速度为350 亿美元。 由于本次会议未提供任何超预期的宽松信号，因此被市场解读为略偏鹰，会议期间美股和黄金走势整体 下行，美债利率和美元指数上行。从芝加哥期货交易所的美联储观察工具走势观察，市场似乎开始计入 9月不降息预期。 美联储内部分歧加剧，两票委提出异议 美联储公开市场委员会在公告中强调，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动 放缓，失业率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。经济前景不确定性依然 处于高位，委员会致力于实现充分就业并让通胀回落至2%的目标。 美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变。美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍 曼（Michelle W. Bowman）和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）均投票支持 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Stance - Federal Reserve continues to pause interest rate cuts, indicating a shift from "economic activity continues to expand steadily" to "economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year" [1] - Powell's hawkish stance suggests that asserting a rate cut in September is premature, with inflation outlook showing mixed signals [1] - Market's expectation for rate cuts has retracted by 10 basis points, with the CME FedWatch indicating a drop from 45 basis points to 35 basis points for the year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Labor market indicators such as turnover rates, job vacancies, and unemployment rates are close to levels from a year ago, indicating no significant weakness [1] - Employment creation and labor supply are slowing, presenting downside risks to the labor market [1] - The market is now leaning towards a single rate cut for the year, with expectations for a potential shift towards rate cut anticipation in August if tariff impacts on inflation remain manageable [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the US dollar index rose approximately 0.5%, nearing 100, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 4.34% to around 4.38% [1] - The market's confidence in a rate cut in October has decreased to about 80% following the meeting [1] - The overall economic data rebound and retraction of rate cut expectations are expected to support the dollar, although future agreements remain uncertain [2]

本次议息会议最引人注目的焦点，莫过于美联储内部罕见的意见分歧。这是30多年来，首次有两位美联储理事在利率决议中投下反对票。这一不同寻 常的现象，被广泛解读为美国总统近期公开向美联储施压所产生的影响。 【环球网财经综合报道】当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变，符合市场广泛预期。这是美联储今年连续第五次决定维持利率不变，显示出其在应对通胀和支撑经济增长之间寻求平衡的 审慎姿态。 在会后发布的政策声明中，美联储对当前美国经济形势的描述略显谨慎。声明指出，今年上半年美国经济增长"有所放缓"，并暗示若这一趋势持续， 可能为未来降息提供依据。声明同时强调，经济前景不确定性仍然高企，通胀和就业目标均面临风险。分析人士普遍认为，这种看似矛盾的表述，恰 恰反映了美联储当前的核心困境：尽管经济增长动能减弱为降息提供了理由，但通胀压力和就业市场的韧性仍构成不确定性，因此美联储在获得更明 确的路径信号前，不愿轻易开启降息周期。 据悉，投下反对票的是美联储负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和理事克里 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：政策基调仍是积极有为 【市场资讯】1）中共中央政治局召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济 形势和经济工作，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。2）育儿补贴是新中国成立以来首次大 范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴，初步预算 900 亿元、8 月下旬申 领。3）美联储连续五次会议按兵不动，但两票委支持降息，指出经济增长放缓；鲍威尔未 就 9 月降息给指引，强调关税和通胀的不确定性，称就业市场未走弱。特朗普对进口半成 品铜等征 50%关税，但不含阴极铜和精炼铜，纽铜暴跌 20%。4）美国暂停对低价值货物的 最低限度免税待遇。5）特朗普称美国将对印度施加 25%关税及"惩罚"，指印方是俄罗斯能 源大买家。特朗普宣布与韩国达成全面贸易协议，征收 15%关税，韩国将向美国提供 3500 亿美元投资，由美国拥有和控制。特朗普签署行政命令，将对巴西征收 50%关税。6）美国 Q2 实际 GDP 年化季环比初值 3%好于预期，PCE 物价指数 2.5%。美国 7 月 ADP 就业人数增 加 10.4 万人超预期，但雇主对招聘决策趋于谨慎。欧元区二季度躲过衰退，GDP 超预期增 长 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices declined as Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, causing the expectation of a September rate cut to cool off. Despite a brief recovery due to the Fed's statement about slower economic growth, gold prices continued to fall. There is still downward pressure on gold prices due to factors such as the Trump tariff deadline, the weakening rate - cut expectation, and the significant decline of international copper [4]. - Silver prices dropped significantly as the Trump administration excluded the most imported refined copper from tariffs, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. There is also downward pressure on silver prices, but the impact of the Trump tariff event is limited [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, European major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 1.06% to 99.97, the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar to 7.2123, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.36, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 2199 kilograms to 33462 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt increased by 3228 kilograms to 1208094 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's participation in a fireside chat at 07:20, Japan's June industrial output preliminary value and retail sales at 07:50, the meeting between the US and South Korean finance ministers (time to be determined), China's July official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI at 09:30, the Bank of Japan's announcement of the interest rate decision and economic outlook report (time to be determined), the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy at 14:30, France's July CPI preliminary value at 14:45, Germany's July CPI preliminary value at 20:00, the US July 26 - week initial jobless claims at 20:30, and the US Federal Circuit Court's hearing of President Trump's "reciprocal tariff" case (time to be determined) [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The Fed's statement mentioned slower economic growth, and although gold prices briefly recovered, Powell's press conference did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut and emphasized inflation risks. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3.7 yuan/gram, and the RMB depreciated significantly, causing the premium to rise rapidly [4]. - **Silver**: The Trump administration's decision to exclude the most imported refined copper from tariffs led to a significant drop in silver prices, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [5]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates aligns with market expectations, but the continued cooling of rate cut expectations for September has caused significant market disturbances [1] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a substantial pullback this week, with the Hang Seng Index opening lower and dropping over 1% during the day [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF and the Hang Seng Internet ETF have seen consecutive days of adjustment, indicating a bearish trend in these sectors [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF rising over 2% during the day and reaching multiple recent highs [1] - Innovative drugs have emerged as a recognized market focus, attracting continuous inflows of capital [1] - WuXi AppTec's half-year performance exceeded expectations, boosting market confidence [1] - The implementation of childcare subsidy policies has further supported the vaccine-related industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by the better - than - expected US economy, the hawkish stance of the FOMC, and tariff developments. The dollar index is approaching 100, US bond yields are rising, and the stock and commodity markets are experiencing adjustments [2]. - In the domestic market, after the Politburo meeting and the Sino - US negotiations did not exceed expectations, the market risk preference declined. The stock market style shifted to high - dividend stocks, the commodity market sentiment cooled, and the bond market rebounded [3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Precious metals are under pressure, copper shows a mixed trend, aluminum is oscillating, and other commodities also present various price movements based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The July statement downgraded the economic growth assessment, and Powell's hawkish remarks emphasized inflation control. The market reduced the expected number of rate cuts this year to 1 time, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped to 41%. The US Q2 GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rebounded to 3.0%, better than the expected 2.4%. Trump announced a series of tariff measures starting from August 1st, which affected market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing the consolidation of the economic recovery momentum. The market risk preference declined, and the stock, commodity, and bond markets showed corresponding adjustments [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to correct. COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce. Powell's hawkish remarks and strong economic data led to a delay in the market's expectation of the first rate cut this year, putting pressure on the prices of gold and silver. Short - term precious metals are expected to remain weak [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - Trump's tariff on imported semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivatives (excluding refined copper) caused the US copper price to plunge nearly 20%. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell remained cautious, slightly dampening market sentiment. In the industry, the second - stage pumping work at the Kamoa mine is progressing actively. It is expected that Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Fed maintained interest rates stable, and strong US economic data did not support rate - cut expectations. The domestic meeting indicated that macro - policies will maintain a growth - stabilizing orientation in the second half of the year. The aluminum market has no clear direction, and aluminum prices are expected to remain oscillating [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina spot market is structurally tight, with low delivery inventory. Supported by news of domestic delivery requirements and overseas supply disruptions, alumina is expected to maintain a relatively positive oscillating trend [10]. 3.6 Zinc - US economic data was strong, the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the dollar strengthened. The fundamental situation of zinc remained weak, with an expected increase in refined zinc production in August and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - The reduction and resumption of production co - exist in primary and secondary lead smelters. The transportation of raw materials and products in Ningxia is affected. The supply tension has eased, and the terminal demand is differentiated. Lead prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - Strong US economic data and the Fed's unchanged interest rates led to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on tin prices. The tin market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with weak supply and demand in China. Tin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, waiting for the guidance of the US July non - farm payroll data [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is firm. The supply is contracting, and the demand shows a mixed situation. The futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Policy expectations dominate the price direction. Overseas lithium ore supply is stable and abundant, and the demand is stable. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - Tariff disturbances continue, and the macro - level is still volatile. The shortage of nickel ore has eased, but the ore price has not significantly declined. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up oil prices, but the OPEC + may increase production in September, and the fundamentals may gradually become looser. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.13 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability. The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak production and sales pattern, and supply is expected to contract in mid - August. Steel futures prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot market trading is average, and the market sentiment is weakly stable. The port inventory has decreased this week, and the supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [24]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the Sino - US negotiation results may weaken the export demand for new - season US soybeans. The domestic soybean procurement is insufficient in the long - term, and the supply is loose in the short - term. Rapeseed meal rebounds strongly, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The US employment data is strong, and the dollar index rises. The import of rapeseed is expected to decline, and rapeseed oil inventory decreases, leading to a compensatory rebound. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For gold, it's recommended to be cautious and go long. Short - term, the market may adjust, but long - term, it's suitable for strategic allocation due to factors like multi - country monetary policy easing and central bank gold purchases [1]. - For silver, it's advisable to try going long after stabilization. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper, but with a long - term upward trend due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus [1]. - For copper, it's suggested to go long on dips. Although it's under short - term pressure, it's still promising in the long run [1]. - For zinc, it's recommended to sell on rallies. It will face short - term pressure and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run [1]. - For lead, its price rebound is under pressure due to factors like inventory accumulation [1]. - For tin, its price rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and inventory accumulation [1]. - For aluminum, its price rebound is under pressure due to high imports and inventory accumulation [1]. - For nickel, its price rebound is under pressure because of factors like inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [1]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, being vigilant about the risk of price drops [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, paying attention to support levels and being vigilant about price drops [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to Powell's tight - lipped stance, strong US data, and the fading of tariff risks, the gold and silver market has adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff tensions have eased, US data has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the Fed's interest - rate decision has maintained the status quo. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support levels of gold at around 760 and silver at 9000 during the adjustment period [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened lower and fluctuated downward [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, electrolytic copper production is increasing, demand has mixed performance, and inventory is accumulating [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to factors like the expected exemption of copper tariffs and inventory accumulation, copper is under short - term pressure but promising in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai copper at [77500, 79500] and London copper at [9650, 9850] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure, and London zinc lost the 2800 mark [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, refined zinc production is increasing, and demand is weak during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the fading of macro - sentiment, zinc returns to its fundamentals. It's under short - term pressure and has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22400, 22800] and London zinc at [2650, 2850] dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebound was weak, and alumina rebounded and then declined [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity is increasing, inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is also accumulating [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000, 20800] [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebound was under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainty remains, and inventory is accumulating. For stainless steel, production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000, 123000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for three consecutive days and rose and then fell during the day [19]. - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory is accumulating, but price increases are shifting inventory. Production is rising despite some company cut - offs. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses is a focus, and there may be significant fluctuations [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 68,000. The price range is [70000, 73500] [21].

张尧浠：鲍威尔淡化降息预期、金价坠落百日线先看反弹 上交易日周三(7月30日)：国际黄金遇阻回落再度走低，空头力量加大，跌破趋势支撑，如期进一步触及100日均支撑位置，可先行看反弹，如重回3300关 口上方，则加大反弹动力，有望再度上探3400美元乃至突破阻力；如回落跌破100日均线持稳收线，则有望继续走低触及3100或3000美元关口位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3326.73美元/盎司，亚欧盘整体维持前两日的震荡上升模式发展，并来回多空不断收割，且在欧盘时段录得日内高点3334.02 美元，之后美盘开盘后，空头力量加大，连续坠落走低于盘尾录得日内低点3267.97美元，最终受到百日均线支撑有所止跌，最终收于3274.82美元，日振 幅66.05美元，收跌51.91美元，跌幅1.56%。 影响上，由于美国经济数据强劲，美国7月ADP就业人数创3月以来最高增速，美国二季度经济增长3%等，以及美联储按兵不动，鲍威尔避免就9月降息给 出指引，坚持观望立场，美元指数连续第五个交易日上涨，打压金价走低收跌。 展望今日周四(7月31日)：国际黄金开盘先行止跌反弹，受到百日均线支撑的买盘推动，以及美国再挥关税大棒，威 ...