Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, total inventory has decreased, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand have both weakened, the inventory pressure is large, and the consumption performance is average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the influence of anti - involution policies and weak reality [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9025 yuan/ton and closed at 9080 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 251,549 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 44,022 lots, a change of - 1323 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - As of November 13, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangzhou decreased more actively, and the overall social inventory decreased [1]. Consumption End - The quotation of silicone DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream monomer manufacturers had a strong willingness to support the price of silicone products such as DMC and intended to jointly reduce production, but the implementation of production cuts was still to be discussed [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and go long on the dry - season contracts on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 54,060 yuan/ton and closing at 52,655 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.57% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,246 lots (145,191 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 249,758 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type polysilicon was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a change of 3.09% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42 GW, a change of 5.14% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a change of - 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12 GW, a change of - 2.45% month - on - month [6]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region is expected to decline significantly [6]. Strategy - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated weakly on the day. The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The consumption performance was average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to operate in the short - term range. The December contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption of production in the northwest and shutdown in the southwest, changes in the start - up of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level. After the downstream's phased replenishment ended, the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1029 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safe large - board glass was 1028 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis was - 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.00% from the previous value [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1028 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - There is no specific content provided in the text about the cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit, but no detailed data or analysis is given. Fundamental - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 222, with an operating rate of 75%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 159,100 tons, with the production capacity at a historically low level in the same period [21][23]. Fundamental - Demand - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic. Traders and processors are cautious and mainly consume the original glass inventory [4]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [2][39]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared. In the Shahe area, "coal - to - gas" conversion and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The main logic is that the glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. The risk point is that the intensity of the "anti - involution" policy exceeds expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that under neutral conditions, the inflation center in 2026 is expected to rise compared to 2025, influenced by several factors [1] Group 1: Inflation Factors - The probability of the pig cycle entering a recovery phase in 2026 is relatively high [1] - The most significant capacity pressure in key industries has passed, and current prices are showing a certain lag in reflection [1] - The impact of "anti-involution" policies is gradually accumulating [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The primary constraint on inflation is that real estate sales prices have not yet stabilized [1] - A clear stabilization in this area is necessary for the market to price in re-inflation more decisively [1]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in the prices of upstream raw materials like polysilicon has led listed companies in the new energy sector to increase their participation in the futures market for risk management [1][2] - In October alone, the number of listed companies announcing hedging activities reached 458, a 2.3-fold increase year-on-year, indicating a growing awareness of price risk management [1][5] Group 1: Company Actions - Camel Group announced a maximum trading margin and option premium of 90 million yuan for futures hedging to mitigate risks from raw material price fluctuations [2] - JinkoSolar plans to increase its maximum margin for futures hedging from 660 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a maximum contract value of 10.3 billion yuan, enhancing its financial stability [2] - EVE Energy adjusted its hedging limits, raising the maximum margin from 350 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, and the maximum contract value from 3.5 billion yuan to 8.5 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Trends - Polysilicon prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a drop of 38.6% from 56,000 yuan/ton to 34,400 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, leading to losses for many small and medium enterprises [3] - Following a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, polysilicon prices rose by 36.9% within a month, reaching 47,100 yuan/ton [3] - The futures market for polysilicon saw a record high of 57,945 yuan/ton on September 5, marking a 91% increase from late June [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a wide range of high-level fluctuations due to the interplay between policy expectations and market fundamentals [4] - The domestic polysilicon production is projected to be around 382,000 tons in Q4, a slight increase of 3% year-on-year, while the total production for 2025 is expected to decrease by 27.3% to approximately 1.34 million tons [4] - The industry is facing a need for nearly 100 billion yuan in funding to support potential storage initiatives aimed at stabilizing prices amid rapid capacity expansion [5] Group 4: Participation in Hedging - The number of listed companies engaging in hedging activities is expected to exceed 2,000 by the end of the year, reflecting a strong demand for new risk management tools [5] - In the first ten months of the year, 1,737 A-share listed companies issued hedging-related announcements, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [5] - The electronics, basic chemicals, and power equipment sectors have the highest number of companies participating in hedging, with participation rates exceeding 40% in several industries [6]

Core Insights - The volatility in the prices of upstream raw materials, particularly polysilicon, has led to an increased participation of listed companies in the futures market for risk management [2][3] - In October alone, 458 companies announced hedging activities, a 2.3-fold increase year-on-year, indicating a growing awareness of price risk management among companies [2][8] - The number of companies engaging in hedging activities is expected to exceed 2000 by the end of the year [2][8] Company Actions - Camel Group announced a maximum trading margin and premium limit of 90 million yuan for futures and options hedging to mitigate risks from price fluctuations [3] - JinkoSolar plans to increase its hedging margin from 660 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a maximum contract value of 10.3 billion yuan, enhancing its financial stability [3] - EVE Energy adjusted its hedging limits, raising the maximum margin from 350 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, and the maximum contract value from 3.5 billion yuan to 8.5 billion yuan [3] Market Dynamics - Polysilicon prices have experienced significant fluctuations, impacting the cost structure and profitability of the entire photovoltaic industry [4] - The price of polysilicon dropped from 56,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 34,400 yuan/ton by the end of June, a decline of 38.6% [4] - Following a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, polysilicon prices rose to 47,100 yuan/ton by the end of July, marking a 36.9% increase within a month [4] Industry Trends - The futures market is becoming a crucial tool for companies to manage risks and stabilize profits amid price volatility [8] - The number of listed companies engaging in hedging activities has increased significantly, with 1,737 companies reporting hedging announcements in the first ten months of the year, a 15.6% year-on-year increase [8] - The electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment, machinery, and automotive sectors have the highest number of companies participating in hedging [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.11.10-11.14 每周观点 上周玻璃期货震荡下行，主力合约FG2601收盘较前一周下跌5.41%报1032元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1028元/吨，较前一周下跌2.28%。 供给方面，沙河"煤改气"4条燃煤产线停产后，目前产线开工持稳；上周全国浮 法玻璃生产线在产222条，开工率75%，日熔量15.91万吨，供给低位企稳。需求方面， 进入四季度，需求偏弱，个别存在赶工现象，且多消耗前期补库库存，多数加工厂在回 款及资金等压力下，刚需拿货仍是主流；截止11月13日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存 6324.70万重量箱，较前一周增加0.18%，库存处于同期历史偏高位置。综合来看，玻璃 基本面供稳需弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the expansion of domestic demand policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships across various industries have led to a stable growth trend in prices, with CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October 2025, and core CPI increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][10][11] - Various industries are experiencing price recovery, particularly in coal, photovoltaic, cement, computers, lithium-ion batteries, and integrated circuits, attributed to the recent "anti-involution" policies and ongoing improvements in supply-demand dynamics [1][11][12] - The report anticipates that if the current trends continue into 2026, there could be significant improvements in both CPI and PPI, indicating a positive outlook for inflation and industrial prices [1][11][12] Group 2 - Local governments are actively working to revitalize idle and inefficient state-owned assets, with provinces like Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui implementing reforms to enhance asset management and operational efficiency [2][16][18] - The report notes that since September 2023, the national government has been assisting local governments in resolving hidden debts, which has effectively reduced their overall debt scale and costs, allowing for increased support for investment, consumption, and technological innovation [3][25][26] - By 2026, local governments are expected to focus on both increasing revenue and reducing expenditures, with a strong emphasis on revitalizing idle assets and managing hidden debts effectively [3][26] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on regions where significant debt resolution policies or funding have been implemented, particularly in areas like Chongqing, Tianjin, and Guangxi, with a recommended duration of 3-5 years for investments [4][30] - The report suggests that provinces with strong economic fundamentals and effective debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, should be prioritized for longer-duration investments due to their robust financing capabilities [29][30] - Areas with strong industrial foundations and financial support, particularly cities with significant industrial clusters, are recommended for short-duration investments of 2-3 years to mitigate risks from potential interest rate fluctuations [31][41]

Group 1: Economic Data Overview - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a new low in growth rate over the past 13 months, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Fixed asset investment in October fell by 12.2% year-on-year, with the decline deepening by 5.1 percentage points compared to September[3] - The real estate market continues to weaken, with residential sales area, new construction area, and completed area down by 19.6%, 29.9%, and 31.4% year-on-year, respectively[3] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - New loans in October amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion year-on-year, with household loans net repayment reaching 360.4 billion, a drop of 520.4 billion year-on-year[4] - The total social financing in October was 814.9 billion, down 597.1 billion year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline[4] - M2 money supply growth fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2%[4] Group 3: Investment and Manufacturing Insights - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year decline of 7.9%, with a significant reduction in low-efficiency capacity investments due to "anti-involution" policies[3] - Industrial added value growth fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors also experiencing declines[3] - The construction sector's investment dropped significantly, with broad infrastructure investment down by 9.7% year-on-year[3] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The current economic data indicates a need for increased policy stimulus to boost domestic demand, particularly in real estate and consumer sectors[4] - The central government may need to plan for increased fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and effective investment in early next year[4] - Monetary policy may focus on easing measures to support consumer spending, with potential credit relief policies anticipated to have a marginal positive effect on the real estate market[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market is showing signs of a bull market, supported by a stable and improving Chinese economy and encouraging policies, despite some risks related to economic fundamentals and market volatility [1] - The China Securities A500 ETF (159338) experienced a net inflow of 27 million units, reflecting a balanced capital influx into broader market indices [1] - The number of accounts for the Guotai China Securities A500 ETF is significantly higher than its competitors, being more than three times that of the second-ranked ETF, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests that a breakthrough above 4000 points requires a combination of mainline logic and profit-making effects [1] - There are concerns regarding the lagging economic fundamentals, fluctuations in external markets, and profit-taking pressures in certain sectors, which may pose challenges for market performance [1] - The ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to increase the likelihood of the domestic economy escaping the "price-demand" negative feedback loop [1]

工业硅周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 有机硅需求降温，工业硅震荡走弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅向下调整，主因国内宏观政策缺乏新的指引， 有机硅企业企业联合减产30%的消息打压短期需求端的表 现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率升至85%，云南地区开工 率逐步下滑，内蒙和甘肃未能产量释放有限，供应端边际 有所收敛；从需求侧来看，多晶硅大厂价格暂稳但市场情 绪走弱，关注产 ...