聚烯烃早报 2026-3-17 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势依然无缓解迹象，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运基本中断，多国确认将释放战略储备，外 盘原油持续强势。供需端，农膜方面，春耕需求启动，但高价原料导致大量下游企业观望成交偏 少，包装膜以刚需为主，提升幅度有限，管材方面开工率维持偏低运行。当前LL交割品现货价 8400（+150），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-277，升贴水比例-3.2%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存62.5万吨（+3.1），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the shipping container industry is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term geopolitical situation continues to dominate market sentiment, but the impact is dulling and market sentiment is diverging [1] Summaries by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the shipping container route to Europe saw a decline with a reduction in positions [1] Important Information - Trump called on multiple countries to send warships to escort in the Strait of Hormuz. France said it would not send ships; Japan will decide on its own response; South Korea's presidential office will carefully consider Trump's call; the UK Ministry of Defence is discussing a series of options [1] - On March 15th local time, the Israeli military said its military operations against Iran will last at least three more weeks [1] - On the afternoon of March 15th local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched the 54th round of the "True Promise - 4" military operation [1] - On the 14th, Trump said Iran was willing to negotiate a cease - fire but the current conditions were "not good enough", so the US would not reach a war - ending agreement with Iran for now [1] - Trump said attacking the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, was still an option [1] - German Chancellor Merz said on March 16th that Germany would not participate in the Strait of Hormuz escort or the Middle East war [1] - On March 16th, the Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli military had launched a ground operation in Lebanon. Five countries including Germany, France, and the UK called for easing the Israel - Lebanon situation and avoiding a large - scale ground offensive [1] Market Logic - On March 16th, SIFIS closed at 1556.49, up 0.7% from the previous period [1] - Affected by the continuous risk of Red Sea navigation, leading liner companies adjusted their routes and detoured around the Cape of Good Hope again. The temporary tightness of shipping capacity and increased transportation costs pushed up freight rates significantly. The European route freight index was 1071.6 points, up 12.1% from last week [1] - According to a report on the 16th, no ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the 14th, the first time since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. Before the conflict, an average of 77 ships passed through the strait per day [1] - As of March 16th, 2026, the total number of global operating container ships decreased to 7,516, with a total global operating capacity of 33,884,048 TEU and a total tonnage of 402,342,791 tons. As of the week of March 16th, the trans - Atlantic capacity was 166,216 TEU, the trans - Pacific capacity was 543,927 TEU, and the Far East - Europe capacity was 524,305 TEU [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term geopolitical situation continues to dominate market sentiment, but the impact is dulling and market sentiment is diverging [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to experience high - level oscillations. Geopolitical factors are the main cause of the oil price increase, and the easing of the geopolitical situation will lead the oil price to return to the supply - demand relationship. The supply reduction supports the chemical futures prices, while the weakening demand drags them down. Overall, the situation is slightly in favor of the bulls [2]. - The crude oil market is expected to remain in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Other chemical products such as asphalt, fuel oil, and various petrochemical products also show different trends of oscillation, mainly affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: The shortage expectation continues, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation. - **Main Logic**: With the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil market faces a large supply gap. Persian Gulf countries are forced to cut production due to inventory pressure, and the number of in - transit cargo ships globally is decreasing. The later impact will gradually spread to the inventory reduction of crude oil - importing countries. The expected deviation mainly comes from the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of attacks on oil fields and terminals in the Middle East also challenges the supply. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [11]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The strength of fuel oil is transmitted to asphalt. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The decline in the asphalt - fuel oil price difference may lead to a significant reduction in asphalt refinery production. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The current asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [13]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive high - sulfur fuel oil back to a high level. - **Main Logic**: The current geopolitical tension, high import dependence, and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are pushing up the futures price. The tension in the Iranian geopolitical situation affects the export of fuel oil and natural gas in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Oscillate [14]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. During the oil price increase, its valuation has been significantly repaired. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high - sulfur fuel oil. The export tax - rebate rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to it. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and the limited substitution demand for high - sulfur fuel oil, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [15]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Under the contraction of the total supply and structural concessions, the supply of PX is expected to be tight. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is still intense, and international oil prices are at a high level. Refineries in Northeast Asia have reduced their production to varying degrees. The planned and unplanned losses of PX are increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in equipment and the downstream's ability to bear high prices. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. In the short term, the PX price will oscillate strongly under the support of cost and the impact of actual supply. In the medium term, the logic of buying at low prices remains, and the PX05 - 09 spread is expected to be in a positive spread at low prices. The PXN is expected to be in a wide - range adjustment of [250, 380] US dollars per ton [17]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in filament production exerts some pressure on TA, but the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, providing cost support. PTA follows the upward trend of raw materials. Traders are actively selling goods, and the spot basis is strengthening. PTA factories are also reducing production, and the supply is shrinking. Attention should be paid to the changes in the reduction scale of downstream polyester factories. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend in the short term. The TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain the positive spread logic in the short term, and the price has stronger support at the bottom [17]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil and commodity sentiment dominate the fluctuations, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene is still dominated by geopolitical factors. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a tight supply of crude oil and Asian naphtha. Some refineries have reduced production. The downstream profits are acceptable, and the value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of domestic and foreign refineries may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene is advanced [20]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene, and styrene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The price of styrene is still dominated by geopolitical factors. The supply is expected to decrease due to equipment maintenance and production reduction. The downstream performance is acceptable, but the support for the price is weakening. The non - integrated profit is neutral to low, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance. There is an expected increase in exports. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, domestic and foreign production may be reduced, and export demand may increase [21]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in the production of oil - based plants is gradually emerging, and the supply is expected to be significantly reduced. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, and domestic ethylene - cracking ethylene glycol enterprises continue to reduce production. The load of domestic ethylene glycol has dropped to around 67%. The cost is supported by high oil prices. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve significantly from March to May, and the price fluctuates widely at a high level. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The price oscillates strongly in the short term. It is advisable to buy at low prices in the medium - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously in the short term. Attention should be paid to reducing positions when the EG05 - 09 spread is high [24]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, providing strong cost support. The domestic supply shortage and raw material supply interruption expectations impact the market again. The downstream is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and some yarn factories may consider reducing or stopping production due to the pressure of high - priced raw materials. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The short - fiber price follows the upward trend of upstream products, maintains an oscillating and strong trend in the short term, and the processing fee has certain support at the bottom. The price volatility is large, and cautious operation is required [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: Supported by upstream costs, the spot of bottle chips is in short supply, and the price increase is significant. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost remains high, driving the price of polyester bottle chips to rise. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the supply - demand situation is tight, with a good overall fundamental situation. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of raw materials, the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced, and the position of buying PR and shorting TA can be considered in the short term [27]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 16, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The inland market atmosphere is strong, and the arbitrage window with the port market is opened. The inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased. Overseas, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, affecting the domestic import end. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The Iranian situation is severe, and the market tends to trade geopolitical premiums, which are difficult to disappear in the short term. Although the futures price is dragged down by the weak fundamentals after reaching a high level, there is still room for an upward trend, and it should be regarded as an oscillating range [30]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The demand sentiment is positive, but policy constraints are significant, and urea oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On March 16, 2026, urea oscillated and consolidated. The supply is abundant, and the demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is improving. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. The spot market is supported by the international market, but the mainstream enterprise quotations are stable under the policy constraints. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The current urea fundamentals are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, the support from agricultural demand is slightly weakening, and industrial demand is gradually recovering. The spot price is restricted by policy price limits. The market price may rise slightly, and overall, it should be regarded as an oscillating and consolidating trend [32]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The refinery's production continues to decline slightly, and PE should be viewed with caution. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a large supply gap in the crude oil market. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short term, and the refinery's production decline supports the near - month contracts. The spot price fluctuates widely, and downstream transactions are average. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The raw material end still provides support, but downstream demand is affected by price increases [34]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Downstream transactions are cautious, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a large supply gap in the crude oil market. The direct impact on PP imports from the Persian Gulf is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH refineries are still under pressure, providing support for the price. The coal - based profits have been significantly repaired, and the overall production is decreasing. If logistics is continuously blocked, the production of oil - based refineries may further decline. The PP spot price fluctuates widely, and transactions are average. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The spot transactions are average, and the raw materials of crude oil and propane still provide support [35]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: The refinery's production is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure, and PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates widely. The downstream buying demand has increased, boosting market confidence. The enterprise inventory pressure has been relieved, and the quotations have slightly increased. The premium in the auction is obvious, and the high - end transactions have increased, driving up the actual transaction price. The short - term powder profit is compressed, and the downstream factory acceptance is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The production is decreasing, but the powder profit is still under pressure [36]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the geopolitical conflict has not ended, and the cost support and supply disturbance expectations of energy - chemical products are increasing. At the micro level, production has been reduced both at home and abroad, and the PVC inventory is being reduced. The overall supply is decreasing, the downstream production has improved, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases is not high. The overseas price has soared, and foreign merchants are on the sidelines. The supply of crude oil and naphtha is blocked, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC is rising. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The production reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the futures price, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the upstream raw material supply shortage [37]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The supply is decreasing, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the geopolitical conflict has not ended, and the cost support and supply reduction expectations of energy - chemical products are strong. At the micro level, the production reduction scale at home and abroad has expanded, the caustic soda export situation has improved, and inventory reduction is expected. The alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching a match, the inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong is being reduced, the non - aluminum production has entered the peak season, and the high - price chasing enthusiasm has decreased. The recent caustic soda export orders are good, and the supply is decreasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The production reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the futures price, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the upstream raw material supply shortage [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 4.74 US dollars per barrel, with a change of 0.51 US dollars per barrel; the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 1206 yuan per ton, with a change of - 92 yuan per ton [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different characteristics. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 404 yuan per ton, with a change of - 285 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt is 138,280 tons [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. also have corresponding changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 137 yuan per ton, with a change of 77 yuan per ton [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and detailed content for each variety is provided in the text, so it cannot be summarized in detail. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2607.75, with a change of - 0.63%; the commodity 20 index is 2943.75, with a change of - 1.02%; the industrial product index is 2578.45, with a change of - 0.05% [282]. - **Energy Index**: On March 16, 2026, the energy index is 1811.34, with a daily increase of 1.23%, a 5 - day increase of 5.07%, a 1 - month increase of 57.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 66.70% [284].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type price difference before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits on rallies [4]. - For urea, short on rallies. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, the market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Consider opening or holding a long position in NR main contract and a short position in RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will mainly rebound, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical is at a historical low, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.65%, to 765.50 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 86.00 yuan/ton, or 1.81%, to 4848.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 122.00 yuan/ton, or 2.18%, to 5729.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type price difference before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 20 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 25 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 31.00 yuan/ton to 2837 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 158 yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits on rallies [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, and Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hebei, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 11 yuan/ton to 1900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market is trading on the expectation and realization of refinery shutdowns. There may be a second - wave market due to the supply reduction of ethylene and aromatics downstream. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls and bears have different views. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, the seasonality usually turns positive in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The short - position holders believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, or 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 15500 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 2000 (- 40) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 2010 (- 30) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 15400 (- 300) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 14700 (- 200) yuan [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market expectation fluctuates more than the fundamentals. Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Consider opening or holding a long position in NR main contract and a short position in RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 125 yuan to 5849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5800 (+ 130) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 5) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 0 (+ 18) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1150 (+ 150) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 682 (+ 12) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 82.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; the ethylene method was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The in - factory inventory was 37.7 million tons (- 8.1), and the social inventory was 140.7 million tons (+ 0.3) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will mainly rebound, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8455 yuan/ton, an increase of 245 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8451 yuan/ton, an increase of 245 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10146 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton; the basis was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 20.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated plant profit of EB was - 229.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 83.55 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.91 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%; the PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8677 yuan/ton, an increase of 261 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8475 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 57.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92 million tons, and the inventory of traders was 5.00 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 305 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8857 yuan/ton, an increase of 254 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 229 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the inventory of traders was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 162 yuan to 10180 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 404 yuan (+ 38). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; the Asian load was 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. Many domestic and overseas devices had load - reduction or shutdown. The PTA load was 77.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in early March were 15.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 million tons. The PXN was 213 US dollars (- 115), the South Korean PX - MX was 70 US dollars (- 14), and the naphtha cracking spread was 298 US dollars (+ 67) [26]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 48 yuan to 6982 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 292 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 77.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. The downstream load was 86.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 million tons. The processing fee on the disk decreased by 58 yuan to 304 yuan [28]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 168 yuan to 4897 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 yuan (+ 17). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%, among which the synthetic - gas method was 74.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%; the ethylene - based load was 62.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6%. Many domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or load - reduction. The downstream load was 86.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the departure from East China ports on March 15 was 1.16 million tons. The port inventory was 101.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 3059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1810 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1150 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 550 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical is at a historical low, but be cautious as it has risen too much recently [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 16, most equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IF rose 0.1%, and IC dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Bitumen, Polyethylene Terephthalate Resin For Bottles and Propylene, while the top three decliners were Silver, Palladium and SCFIS(Europe) [10][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 16, most equity index futures dropped, and commodities were mixed, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. IF rose 0.1%, and IC dropped 0.6%. In commodity futures, Bitumen rose 10.6% with open interest increasing 38.8% month - on - month; Polyethylene Terephthalate Resin For Bottles gained 7.4% with open interest increasing 15.7% month - on - month; Propylene advanced 3.7% with open interest decreasing 3.9% month - on - month. On the downside, Silver plummeted 6.3% with open interest increasing 2.2% month - on - month; Palladium dropped 4.2% with open interest increasing 2.1% month - on - month; SCFIS(Europe) slid 4.0% with open interest decreasing 1.7% month - on - month [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 16, the Crude Oil main contract rose 1.6% to 765.5 yuan/barrel (INE). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to supply reductions and heightened uncertainty over their duration, amplifying oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to trend strongly range - bound. The Strait of Hormuz traffic disruptions have reduced Gulf nations' exports, and the IEA's plan to release strategic petroleum reserves has limited impact. The crude oil market currently faces a significant supply deficit and is in an upward phase [17][18][19] 1.2.2 Bitumen - On March 16, the main contract of Bitumen rose 10.6% to 4464 yuan/ton (SHFE). Geopolitical disturbances remain strong, and bitumen futures prices fluctuate widely. Supply - side factors include disrupted Middle Eastern crude oil supply expectations, high fuel oil cracking spreads, and poor refinery margins. Demand is suppressed by high prices, and inventory year - on - year decline has narrowed. Bitumen's relative valuation against some oil products is low, but high relative to rebar [22][23][24] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On March 16, the main contract of Fuel Oil rose 1.8% to 4848 yuan/ton (SHFE). High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuated widely, driven mainly by geopolitical disturbances. Supply is sensitive to geopolitical tensions, and demand's short - term focus is on the energy rally. After the sharp rally, its economic viability for power generation and as a feedstock has deteriorated. The core driver is the U.S. - Iran situation [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China - US economic and trade consultations started in Paris on March 15. Trump threatened to delay his China visit if China doesn't assist in the Strait of Hormuz escort, and China's Foreign Ministry said the two sides are maintaining communication. The US plans to announce a Strait of Hormuz "escort coalition". Trump threatened NATO allies to help keep the Strait open. At the end of February, M2 balance was 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% YoY; M1 was 115.93 trillion yuan, up 5.9% YoY; M0 was 15.14 trillion yuan, up 14.1% YoY. In January - February, SVIA rose 6.3% YoY, national fixed - asset investment rose 1.8% YoY, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 2.8% YoY, and national real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY [39][40]

Market Sentiment Recovery - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant rebound, with Bitcoin surpassing $74,000 and Ethereum exceeding $2,300, indicating a recovery in global investor risk appetite [2][8] - In the last 24 hours, approximately 99,200 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations exceeding $430 million, predominantly from short positions [2][8] Energy Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the current oil supply gap does not constitute a crisis, predicting that oil prices may drop below $80 per barrel in the coming months [2] - The global energy market is under pressure due to Middle Eastern tensions, but Yellen emphasized that the U.S. is allowing Iranian tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz to ensure global supply remains uninterrupted [2] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. and European stock markets experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.16%, Nasdaq up 1.46%, and S&P 500 up 1.27% [5] - Technology stocks led the rally, with notable increases in companies like Micron Technology (up over 5%) and Intel (up over 4%) [5] Geopolitical Tensions - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains complex, with U.K. Prime Minister Starmer stating that restoring navigation is challenging and that the U.K. is working with allies on feasible solutions [5] - Iranian officials have reiterated their stance against a ceasefire, continuing military actions, which adds to the geopolitical uncertainty affecting markets [5][12] Cryptocurrency Market Trends - Bitcoin has shown resilience, outperforming traditional assets since the onset of the Iranian conflict, with a rise of over 10% this month compared to a nearly 5% drop in gold [8][9] - Institutional confidence appears to be returning, as evidenced by a net inflow of over $763 million into U.S. listed Bitcoin ETFs over the past week [9] Future Outlook for Bitcoin - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price may fluctuate between $60,000 and $100,000 depending on the developments in the Middle East [12][13] - The current market dynamics indicate that Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset, potentially decoupling from traditional risk markets [12]

Economic Performance - In January-February, industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[6] - Social retail sales grew by 2.8% year-on-year, also surpassing market consensus[6] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery[6] Investment Insights - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, while public investment increased by 6.8%[9] - Manufacturing investment rebounded to a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, the highest since July of the previous year[9] - Infrastructure investment (including electricity) surged by 11.4%, marking the highest growth since April of the previous year[9] Consumption Trends - The consumption of essential goods showed a notable increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6%[9] - Restaurant income rose by 4.8% year-on-year, the highest since May of the previous year[9] - Despite overall retail improvement, durable goods consumption showed mixed results, with declines in automotive and communication equipment sales[9] External Factors - Strong external demand remains a key driver of economic performance, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[3] - Geopolitical tensions may disrupt external demand, necessitating a focus on domestic policy adjustments[3] - The late timing of the Spring Festival contributed to the significant improvement in economic data, warranting cautious optimism about sustainability[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks in Russia have led to a suspension of coal exports from Russia, significantly impacting global coal trade dynamics and prices [2]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in shipping costs for coal from the Far East to China, with freight rates rising by 17%-27% in the last week of February [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in annual reports, recommending companies with strong performance such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy [3]. Summary by Sections Global Energy Price Review - As of March 13, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up $10.45 (+11.27%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up $7.81 (+8.59%) [1]. - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia saw a decline, with spot prices at $20.01 per million British thermal units, down $1.17 (-5.50%) [1]. - Coal prices varied, with European ARA port coal at $124.00 per ton, down $5.50 (-4.25%), while Newcastle port coal rose to $138.00 per ton, up $4.60 (+3.45%) [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3]. - It also highlights companies in the smart mining sector like Keda Control and those undergoing turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that global coal prices are reacting strongly to geopolitical tensions, with prices in Western Europe rising from $105 per ton to $125-130 per ton, and Newcastle high-calorific coal prices increasing to $130 per ton [2][3]. - The report indicates that the logistics costs are expected to rise due to rerouting of shipping routes to avoid conflict zones, impacting overall coal supply and pricing [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and logistical bottlenecks in Russia have led to a suspension of coal exports from Russia, significantly impacting global coal trade dynamics and prices [2] - The report highlights a substantial increase in shipping costs for coal from the Far East to China, with freight rates rising by 17%-27% in the last week of February [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in annual reports, recommending companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3] Summary by Sections Global Energy Price Review - As of March 13, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up $10.45 (+11.27%) from the previous week; WTI crude oil futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up $7.81 (+8.59%) [1] - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia saw a decline, with spot prices at $20.01 per million British thermal units, down $1.17 (-5.50%) [1] - Coal prices showed mixed trends, with European ARA coal prices at $124.00 per ton, down $5.50 (-4.25%), while Newcastle coal prices rose to $138.00 per ton, up $4.60 (+3.45%) [1] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the suspension of Russian coal exports is due to logistical constraints, including railway restrictions and shipping delays, which have led to increased shipping costs and reduced supply [2] - The report indicates that global coal prices have reacted sharply to geopolitical tensions, with prices in Western Europe rising from $105 to $125-130 per ton, and Newcastle coal prices increasing to $130 per ton [2] Key Stocks - The report recommends a buy rating for several companies, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.46 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 9.40 [6] - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.95 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 13.70 [6] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.44 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.20 [6] - Other companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jin Coal Industry, and Lu'an Environmental Energy, among others [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Bonds, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers. Long positions can be considered in the medium to long term by taking advantage of the discount of stock index futures [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as asset allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the downside is limited as downstream industries resume production, and they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the cost support emerges despite weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are oscillating due to the game between short - term supply concerns and inflation risks [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level due to supply disruptions in Indonesia and macro - emotional fluctuations [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance [1]. - Tin prices are greatly affected by the macro situation and have declined [1]. - Precious metal prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly due to oil price fluctuations and a strong US dollar [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term until the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear [1]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon investment should be on the sidelines due to liquidity risks [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, battery exports, and mine disruptions [1]. - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1]. - Hot rolled coil prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to de - stocking pressure [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating more sharply due to policy fluctuations, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts, policy incentives, and cost factors despite weak supply - demand [1]. - Bond prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the medium term due to more relaxed supply - demand, although affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the coking profit has been repaired [1]. - Palm oil prices are bullish due to tight supply - demand in the international market [1]. - Soybean oil prices are expected to rise following other oils and can be used for short - position hedging [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are bullish in the short term due to potential US biodiesel policies [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area decreases [1]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and the upside space needs new drivers [1]. - Pulp futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton [1]. - Log futures prices have fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pig prices are supported by demand, and production capacity needs further release [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [1]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost but have relatively weak influence in the energy sector [1]. - BR rubber prices are rising and have upward potential due to supply disruptions and cost support [1]. - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, supply shortages, and downstream demand [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices have risen due to raw material shortages [1]. - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disruptions and strong demand [1]. - Urea prices have limited upside due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol prices are affected by Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC prices are bullish due to geopolitical factors and capacity adjustments [1]. - PG prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical premiums, demand, and inventory [1].