1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual energy and chemical products, ratings such as "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" are used based on the expected price movements within the next 2 - 12 weeks [268]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. The increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reflects the boost from the suspension of the Sino - US trade war, but the employment and raw material inventory indexes are relatively weak. The progress of the US - Iran negotiation has stagnated, which may disrupt the crude oil market again. The overall chemical industry continues to oscillate, and factors like the Caixin PMI index and device start - stop news are used for short - term trading. The report suggests an oscillating approach towards the energy and chemical market, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Middle East exports increased significantly in June, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production resolution this weekend. On July 1st, international oil prices rose, and the market is concerned about the OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia's June crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day to 6.33 million barrels per day. Brazil's May oil and gas production increased year - on - year, and Kazakhstan's June crude oil production recovered and reached a historical high. The US API data shows a decrease in total oil inventory, which is beneficial for oil prices. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [4]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading the loose fundamentals, and the PG market may oscillate weakly. On July 1st, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,200 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, with increasing liquefied gas and civil gas volumes, low downstream replenishment willingness during the off - season, and limited follow - up increments in chemical demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates, waiting for negative factors to materialize. The futures price follows the crude oil price, and factors such as OPEC+ potential over - production in August, increased supply from Venezuela and Iran, and weak demand may put pressure on the asphalt price. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [4][5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to fully materialize. OPEC+ may over - produce in August, and the decrease in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The increase in heavy oil supply and the weakening of geopolitical factors are negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the crude oil price down. It is affected by factors such as the weakening of the gasoline - diesel spread, shipping demand decline, and green energy substitution. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, following the crude oil price [7]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates. On July 1st, the methanol price oscillated. The domestic main production areas showed a weak downward trend, with increased port inventory and weakening basis. The coal price has an impact on production costs, and the MTO profit is low. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [16][17]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. On July 1st, the urea price was stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the market is mainly trading the supply - demand imbalance. The export is expected to drive the market. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, waiting for new market drivers [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory, it continues to oscillate and consolidate. On July 1st, the ethylene glycol price was weak, and the basis strengthened. The future arrival volume is expected to increase, and the shutdown of a bottle - chip device will reduce the demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is temporarily stable, and PX oscillates strongly. On July 1st, the PX price and related indicators are given. In the short term, the cost of PX may weaken due to the potential weakening of crude oil, and the supply - demand side is affected by device maintenance. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [9]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakens, and the cost - side PX is strong, so PTA oscillates. On July 1st, the PTA price and processing fees are provided. The crude oil price may decline, which has a weak impact on PTA. The supply is tight, but the demand from downstream factories may decrease. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the supply - demand margin weakening but following the cost - side in the short term [9]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The short - fiber processing fee is supported, the basis is stable, and the absolute value follows the raw material's fluctuations. On July 1st, the short - fiber futures performed better than the raw material PTA. The industry has no major contradictions, and the key is whether the recent weak sales will continue. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [13][14]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually started, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out. On July 1st, the polyester raw material futures declined slightly, and the bottle - chip market was active. The reduction in supply due to maintenance limits the further decline of the processing fee. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the absolute value following the raw material and limited further compression of the processing fee [14][15]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance increase is limited, and PP oscillates in the short term. On July 1st, the PP price oscillated, and the basis was stable. The cost is affected by the crude oil price, the supply is increasing, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [21][22]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic oscillates. On July 1st, the LLDPE price oscillated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The decline in oil prices, the increase in supply, and the weak demand from downstream industries are the main factors. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [20]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene oscillates narrowly. On July 1st, the styrene price declined, and the basis strengthened. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the pure - benzene fundamentals are marginally improving. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [10]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates. The macro - level risk preference has improved, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with a bearish supply - demand expectation and a preference for short - selling [23]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly. The short - term price oscillates, supported by improved risk preference and increased cost, but pressured by the bearish supply - demand expectation in July - August. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a preference for short - selling in the long term [24]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, showing different changes [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are given, with corresponding changes [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing different changes [29]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda but does not provide specific data summaries in the content [30][42][53].

Group 1 - The article highlights the shifting dynamics in international relations, where China has emerged as a key economic supporter for countries like Russia, Iran, and Cuba, previously seen as adversaries to the U.S. [1] - In 2023, China imported 86.25 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for nearly 40% of Russia's total oil exports, which has helped stabilize the Russian economy amidst Western sanctions [1] - Iran has benefited from China's oil purchases, allowing it to regain some economic stability and assertiveness in nuclear negotiations, as U.S. sanctions have severely impacted its oil exports [1] Group 2 - Cuba, facing decades of U.S. blockade, has received comprehensive support from China, including food supplies and infrastructure development, which has contributed to its economic revival [1] - The mutual support between China and these countries has created a protective layer for China, allowing it to focus on its own development while these nations engage in geopolitical maneuvers [2] - China's robust economic position has positioned it as the core player in international cooperation, demonstrating that the essence of modern geopolitics is based on mutual benefit and collaboration [2]

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 7 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 9 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 9 | | 碳酸锂：仓单矛盾缓解，偏弱运行 | 11 | | 工业硅：上游工厂开始复产，盘面或回调 | 13 | | 多晶硅：关注实际现货成交情况 | 13 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 22 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 25 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 29 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 31 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-01 中国液体化工低库存，美国石油 低库存，能化延续震荡 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，美国又在积极促成俄乌之间的谈 判。从原油基本面情况看，当前全球整体库存逐步攀升，欧美经济体尤其 是美国石油库存却压力较小。美国原油商业库存、库欣库存和柴油库存均 位于五年同期最低，作为全球最大的原油消费国，美国的低库存将对油价 形成支撑，国内化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 化工品中整体仍是震荡态势。我们关注到液体化工的库存近期有分 化。纯苯和苯乙烯的华东港口库存周度攀升，且已经升至五年同期最高； 另一方面乙二醇的港口库存持续下滑，将至五年同期最低。高库存说明供 给压力在与日俱增，极低的乙二醇库存则说明一旦有装置扰动，期价就可 能有较强的向上动力。聚酯链中的PX和TA也延续强基差格局，低库存和高 基差品种表现将强于其他品种。 原油：延续震荡整理，美国月报显示该国产量创纪录 LPG：基本面宽松，但市场仍对地缘风险担忧，PG盘面或震荡 沥青：欧佩克+增产或超预期，沥青高估值等待回落 高硫燃油：欧佩克+增产或超预期，高硫燃油重回弱势 低硫燃 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】欧盟决定将针对俄罗斯的制裁措施再延长6 个月，至2026年1月31日。相关措施覆盖俄罗斯贸易、金融、能 源、技术和军民两用产品等多个领域。评：关税谈判及相关制 裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡化，市场未来关注焦点是地 缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指数再度走弱，提振黄金，黄 金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关注美元指数走势。黄金中期 震荡格局并未改变，短期震荡偏多，但上方空间有限。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2790元/吨，下降30元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存67.05万吨，周上升14.34%；甲醇 样本生产企业库存34.16万吨，周减少2.58万吨；样本企业订单 待发24.07万吨，周下降3.31万吨；甲醇开工91.31%，周上升 2.65%；下游总产能利用率75.57%，周下降0.2%。评：成本端煤 炭价格预期较稳，国内甲醇开工预期高位运行，下游需求较 稳，本周预计进口到货有所减量，港口或去库。内地甲醇市场 偏弱，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差小幅走弱，整体 商谈成交一般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2400 一线，建议空单谨慎持有。 投资咨询中心 ...

欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩：我们正面对地缘政治的诸多问题，而这些问题，某种程度上，正引导着全 球化的逐步退却。 ...

Core Insights - The recent occupation of a lithium mine by Russian forces near Shevchenkove village in the Donetsk region has resulted in Ukraine losing control over a critical strategic resource, disrupting the economic cooperation framework between the U.S. and Ukraine [1][3] - The lithium mine, although small in size (approximately 100 acres), is considered one of Ukraine's most valuable mineral deposits, essential for battery manufacturing and advanced technologies [3] - The U.S. previously signed agreements with Ukraine to prioritize the development of its lithium resources, aiming to strengthen its influence in the global mineral supply chain [3] Economic and Strategic Implications - The loss of control over the lithium mine poses significant risks to Ukraine's economic recovery and strategic autonomy, as control over mineral resources is directly linked to economic power [3][5] - Ukrainian officials have expressed the need for increased military support from the U.S. to effectively counter Russian advances and maintain control over strategic resources [3][5] - The U.S. has shown reluctance to link mineral development transactions with additional military aid, indicating a cautious approach to military involvement in Ukraine [3][5][8] Geopolitical Context - The seizure of the lithium mine by Russian forces highlights the ongoing resource competition and geopolitical tensions, with lithium becoming a cornerstone for future energy and high-tech industries [5][7] - The situation reflects a broader trend where resource control is intertwined with national security, emphasizing that economic cooperation cannot be isolated from security considerations [7][8] - The ongoing conflict over the lithium mine is expected to intensify, becoming a focal point in the geopolitical rivalry between major powers [7][8] Future Outlook - The interplay between resource control and military support will continue to shape the dynamics of U.S.-Ukraine cooperation, with the potential for significant implications on regional stability and global supply chains [7][8] - The challenges faced by Ukraine in balancing economic interests with military realities underscore the complexities of modern geopolitical strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The situation in the Middle East has escalated significantly due to military actions by Israel and the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicating that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within "months" despite the damage [1][3]. Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Program - IAEA Director General Grossi's assessment suggests that some Iranian nuclear facilities remain operational, and there is uncertainty regarding the potential secret relocation of high-enriched uranium stocks [3][4]. - Iran's parliament has voted to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, effectively closing off transparency regarding its nuclear program [3][6]. - The Iranian government appears to leverage the "nuclear uncertainty" to gain strategic advantage, despite suffering damage to its facilities [3][6]. Group 2: U.S. and Israel's Military Actions - The military actions by the U.S. and Israel are questioned in terms of their effectiveness, with claims that they have set back Iran's nuclear program "decades" being viewed as politically motivated rather than based on reliable intelligence [4][6]. - The actions taken by the U.S. and Israel may provide Iran with justification for retaliatory measures, complicating the geopolitical landscape [4][6]. Group 3: Regional and Global Implications - The current situation reflects a broader reconfiguration of power in the Middle East, with nuclear capabilities becoming a key bargaining chip among regional players [6][8]. - The failure of international oversight mechanisms, such as the IAEA, raises concerns about nuclear non-proliferation and the potential for increased regional tensions [6][8]. - The escalation of conflict over nuclear issues could have far-reaching consequences for global supply chains, financial markets, and strategic alignments, with major powers unable to effectively mediate the situation [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global asset risk appetite has collectively increased due to three favorable factors: potential resolution of US-China tariffs, the possibility of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the market pricing out geopolitical risks related to the Middle East [3][28][29] - The report suggests that the current asset pricing logic is influenced by three main factors: geopolitical issues (short-term impact), tariffs (medium-term impact until the end of 2025), and the shorting of the US dollar/US fiscal discipline (long-term impact until the end of 2026 or the end of the current US administration) [3][28][29] - The report notes that the market is currently in a phase where the three pricing logic factors are in a "waiting" stage, with limited upward momentum expected in the absence of significant adjustments in major equity markets [28][29] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US Senate's recent decision to remove a specific clause from a tax reform bill has alleviated some concerns regarding debt sustainability, yet long-term distrust in US fiscal discipline remains strong [29] - The report emphasizes that the current market optimism is not indicative of a new wave of growth but rather a continuation of the upward trend that began in April, following a period of extreme pessimism in global risk appetite [29] - The report advises maintaining a balanced allocation strategy across various asset classes, focusing on both offensive assets (AI, technology hardware, and large financials) and defensive assets (long-term bonds, gold, and low-volatility dividends) [5][28]