黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备 | | 制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告，明确在2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间，境外投资者以中国境内居民企业分配的利润用于境内直接投资，若符 | | 合条件可按照投资额的10%抵免当年的应纳税额。 | | 深交所发布创业板"轻资产、高研发投入"认定标准，符合相关标准的上市公司不再受募集资金30%补流比例限制，有效提升相关公司融资灵活性，支持企业 | | 加大研发投入。经初步测算，符合标准的上市公司共计200余家，主要集中在信息技术、生物医药等战略性新兴产业。 | | 宏观信息 中共中央政治局召开会议，审议《党中央决策议事协调机构工作条例》。会议强调，党中央决策议事协调机构要坚持谋大事、议大事、抓大事，对重大工作实 | | 施更为有效的统领和协调，做到统筹不代替、到位不越位。要深入调查研究，提升决策议事质效，提出切 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic sentiment has rebounded during Trump's tariff grace period, but economic pressure remains. With the implementation of policy dividends, investment and consumption demand are expected to be continuously released. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the Politburo meeting in July further increasing policies to stabilize growth [1]. - As the deadline for the US to postpone tariffs approaches, the EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, Canada has cancelled the digital service tax, and the India - US trade negotiation is at a deadlock. The subsequent progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - The Fed is not in a hurry to act due to the unprecedented tariffs and the difficulty in predicting the impact on inflation. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the US Senate, and the US retail sales in May declined significantly [3]. - Macro - inflation trading has heated up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and the gold price related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, China's investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be issued in July. China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months [1]. - The People's Bank of China made a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan on June 26th, the highest since April 30th [1]. Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration admitted the flexibility of the tariff schedule on June 12th. The EU is preparing counter - measures, and the EU Commission President is confident of reaching an agreement by July 9th. The UK - US trade agreement has reduced tariffs on UK exports to the US. Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked over auto parts taxes [2]. US Economic Situation - Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to act. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the Senate, and the Senate will vote on the tax reform bill on Monday morning local time. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the "Big Beautiful" bill passing and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector and gold are worthy of attention, and the black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations [4]. Energy - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached. The IEA predicts that the oversupply of oil in 2025 may continue until the end of this decade. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4][7]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Important News - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month [7]. - The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, reducing tariffs on UK auto and aerospace product exports to the US [7]. - Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the two sides will restart negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21, 2025 [2][7]. - The US Senate has completed the reading of the "Big Beautiful" bill and started the debate, and will vote after the debate [3][7]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years starting from July 1, 2025 [4][7]. - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026 [7]. - Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached [4][7].

Core Insights - The essence of non-performing asset (NPA) business lies in liberating production factors from bad assets and reintegrating them into new combinations to create new productive forces [1][2] - The management of non-performing assets is crucial for mitigating financial risks and supporting high-quality economic development, especially during economic transitions [2][6] Group 1: Understanding Non-Performing Asset Business - The domestic non-performing asset management industry originated in the late 1990s to address financial risks and promote state-owned enterprise reforms [3] - Two prevalent theories in the industry are the "Popsicle Effect" and the "Counter-Cyclical Hypothesis," which highlight the instability of micro-value and the long macro-disposal cycles of non-performing assets [3] Group 2: Profit Logic and Social Value of Non-Performing Asset Business - The existence of asset management companies is justified by their ability to demonstrate strong vitality in the national economy over the past two decades, despite the lack of comparative advantages in asset disposal [4] - Non-performing asset management plays a vital role in reallocating production factors to adapt to the current economic transformation, thus enhancing social value [6] Group 3: Role of Rating Companies in Non-Performing Asset Business - Rating companies, as independent think tanks, should leverage their expertise to assist asset management companies in developing restructuring businesses and mastering economic risk assessments [2][9] - The collaboration between asset management companies and rating companies can lead to resource sharing and complementary advantages, enhancing the effectiveness of non-performing asset management [11] Group 4: Pathways for Rating Companies to Support Non-Performing Asset Management - Rating companies can provide meaningful research support in the high-yield and junk bond sectors, expanding the scope of non-performing assets [11][12] - By utilizing their macroeconomic research capabilities, rating companies can help identify trading opportunities and facilitate enterprise restructuring [12][13] - The collaboration can also empower state-owned asset management companies to gain insights into economic risk assessments, enhancing their role in national decision-making [13]

【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 2025 年 7 月 1 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂、螺纹 钢、玻璃、纯碱、原油、燃料油、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3904 和 3931 点，支撑位 3863 和 3852 点；IH2509 阻力位 2703 和 2728 点，支撑位 2667 和 2653 点；IC2509 阻力位 5801 和 5838 点，支撑位 5745 和 5729 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：昨日金价触底回升，短期市场对短期伊朗和以色列停战的计价较为充分，行 ...

Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The domestic equity market showed strong performance last week, with major indices rising over 3% and daily trading volume increasing to around 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, surpassing the 3400-point mark, which is a significant resistance level [1] - Financial, computer, and military industries performed well, while the oil and petrochemical sectors saw declines due to falling oil prices [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Observations - Despite significant tariff impacts and a slowdown in the domestic real estate market since April, the overall macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by a strong industrial chain and manufacturing capabilities [1] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has also contributed positively to the macroeconomic performance [1] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market exhibited a fluctuating pattern last week, influenced by seasonal factors and the stock-bond relationship [2] - The strong performance of the stock market initially suppressed bond market performance, but increased liquidity from the central bank and insurance demand supported the bond market [2] - By the end of the week, the yields on 10-year government bonds and 30-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point, reaching 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [2]

金属石化 迈向黄金新时代 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策 略会 20250630 摘要 黄金的表现与宏观经济环境密切相关。自 2022 年提出新宏观范式以来，全球 进入了高通胀、高利率、高波动的新阶段，这一变化推动了实物资产的价值上 升。2023 年 8 月，我们预测未来几年利率中枢和黄金价格中枢将持续上升， 美元未来几年面临持续贬值压力，原因包括特朗普政府的制造业回归政 策、贸易赤字缩减以及解决债务压力的需求。新兴信用品种如金银铜成 为避险选择，将进一步推动这些实物资产价值上升。各主要国家都面临 类似的债务压力，信用货币普遍存在贬值风险。 中美再平衡的实现路径包括关税、汇率和财政。关税空间收缩，财政力 度加大导致失衡加剧，汇率价格调整成为硬约束。美元贬值可通过市场 化行为实现，无需协议干预。4 月 2 号以来，美元跌幅主要发生在亚洲 时段，验证了资金在美国和亚洲之间存在再平衡。 黄金市场长期走势受美国通胀中枢和财政赤字中枢影响。看空美国通胀 和财政力度可能结束黄金牛市，反之则牛市远未结束。过去 50 年黄金 实际价格基本上由美国财政赤字解释，黄金可以抗国家信用。中国等新 兴市场国家未来还有很大的增持黄金 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June increased to 49.7%, marking a rise for two consecutive months, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [1][2] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in market demand [2] - The production index rose to 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, while the purchasing volume index increased significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2% [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, attributed to seasonal declines in consumer travel demand post-holidays [3] - The construction sector showed accelerated expansion with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5] - The second quarter's average non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, consistent with the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts emphasize the need for continued macroeconomic policy support to stimulate growth and address demand shortages in the manufacturing sector [5][6]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the weak macroeconomic environment in the United States has led to an increase in default events among issuers in May [1] Group 1 - The macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. are described as weak, contributing to financial stress among issuers [1] - There has been a noticeable rise in the number of defaults reported in May, indicating a potential trend in the market [1] - The overall economic landscape is impacting the creditworthiness of various issuers, raising concerns for investors [1]