Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - ferrous metals morning report released on September 17, 2025, by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center [1] Group 2: Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 257, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3049. The LME inventory decreased by 1675 [1] - **Core View**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, breaking upward on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream start - up weakened, and it was in the stage of consuming finished product inventory. Macroscopically, copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - expansion. After the FOMC meeting next week, pay attention to the possible phased realization of bullish factors. The copper price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters. If there is a callback after short - term bullish factors are realized, consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 1500 [1] - **Core View**: Supply increased slightly, with imports of aluminum ingots providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. In the short - term, the fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to demand. Hold at low prices in the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium remained at - 60, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots increased by 30, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 [1][2] - **Core View**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. On the supply side, the domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some production resistance. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate. In the short - term, it can be used as a short - side configuration, and the internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2] Group 5: Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1950 [3] - **Core View**: On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level. On the demand side, it was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation in the domestic market and an increase in overseas warehouse receipts. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - aspect has rebounded. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils increased by 50, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coils increased by 50 [5][6] - **Core View**: On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6] Group 7: Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, and the LME inventory increased by 2225 [7] - **Core View**: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries was tight. On the demand side, the inventory of battery finished products was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The supply is expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000. In September, there is an expectation of a peak season, but the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 [7] Group 8: Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot import earnings decreased by 2200.06, the spot export earnings increased by 1949.49, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9] - **Core View**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Overseas, the import from Wa State was less than 200 metal tons in August, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase gradually after October. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuates. The LME inventory has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 33 [10] - **Core View**: This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Currently, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. In the short - term, the supply and demand in September and October are still in a tight balance state. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [10] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 400, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 400, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 139 [12] - **Core View**: This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, miners are not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also have the sentiment of holding prices. The current basis level has strengthened slightly, and the supply of large - discount goods has decreased. The current contradiction is that under the background of over - capacity, the resource side faces phased compliance disturbances. In the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. The price elasticity is high after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is realized, and the price has strong downward support before the disturbances are realized [12]

Report Information - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks and the upcoming Fed interest rate decision have strengthened short - term macro impacts. Overseas, the US cotton market shows a weakening trend with a decline in the weekly good - to - excellent rate, weaker weekly export data, and low net long positions of CFTC funds. In the domestic market, new cotton picking has started in some areas, and the demand side has a slight de - stocking of finished products, with seasonal recovery in the downstream weaving mills' operation rate and some rigid demand support [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market has average trading, weaker than the same period in previous years, with stable prices and some local discounts. The cotton fabric market has weak demand, and the home textile market has increased sales but poor order continuity and difficult price increases [7]. - **Macro and Overseas Factors**: Sino - US economic and trade talks are held in Spain, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision this week. The US cotton weekly good - to - excellent rate has decreased slightly, export data has weakened, and the CFTC fund net long position remains low, leading to a weakening trend in the overseas market [8]. - **Domestic Market**: Some domestic regions have started manual cotton picking, and mechanical picking will start next week. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress is 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past four years. The demand side has a slight de - stocking of finished products, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate has a seasonal increase, with rigid demand support [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate is 50% (compared to 53% last year and a five - year average of 49%), the picking rate is 9% (compared to 10% last year and a five - year average of 8%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (compared to 39% last year) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various cotton futures spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and the total number of warehouse receipts, as well as currency exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [16][17][20][26][28]

Group 1 - The core task remains to boost effective demand, highlighting the increasing necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter [1][8] - The economic growth rate for China in the first half of the year was 5.3%, achieved amidst challenges such as global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1][2] - The August data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in various economic indicators compared to July, suggesting a potential for policy intervention [2][3] Group 2 - The social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan in August, but this represents a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand [3][4] - Government bond financing has decreased, and the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters and months [5][6] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and real estate investment declining by 12.9% [6][7] Group 3 - The investment sentiment among enterprises remains subdued, correlating with the slow growth in fixed asset investment observed this year [4][6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with certain sectors like sports and home appliances performing well [7][8] - The necessity for structural monetary policies is increasing, with potential measures including the restart of government bond purchases to inject medium to long-term liquidity [8]

Economic Overview - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - The necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter is increasing, as indicated by the recent economic data [2] Financing and Credit - The growth rate of social financing decreased in August, with a total increment of 25,693 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [3] - The demand for credit remains weak, with new loans amounting to 6,233 billion yuan in August, down by 4,178 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4] - Government bond financing has also seen a decline, indicating that the effectiveness of active fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and manufacturing investment by 5.1%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [6][7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing investment in key industries, particularly manufacturing, to support economic recovery [7] Consumption Patterns - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, although certain sectors like dining faced challenges [7][8] - The recovery in consumption is expected to take time, and effective demand needs to be stimulated [8] Policy Recommendations - There is a growing need for the introduction of stable growth policies in the fourth quarter, with potential measures including the issuance of special government bonds and the use of policy financial tools [2][8] - Structural policy tools may be accelerated to support key industries and foreign trade, while fiscal policies may need to be intensified [8]

Economic Overview - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.8% last year to 1.7% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 1.8% in 2026[7] - China's GDP growth is expected to improve from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, but may drop to 4.7% in Q4 2025 due to various economic pressures[46] Inflation and Monetary Policy - US PCE inflation is anticipated to rise from 2.4% in Q2 to 2.9% in Q4 2025, before decreasing to 2.4% in 2026[9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in late 2024, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%-3.5%[4] Asset Allocation Strategies - In the US, the recommended asset allocation includes overweighting commodities, standard allocation to stocks and cash, and underweighting bonds, with a bearish outlook on the dollar[4] - In China, the strategy suggests overweighting stocks, standard allocation to commodities and bonds, and underweighting cash, with a moderate appreciation of the RMB expected[5] Market Trends - The US stock market is entering a late bull market phase, with a focus on sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials[4] - China's stock market is in the second phase of a bull market, with a focus on AI hardware, internet, and healthcare sectors[5] Debt and Consumer Behavior - The US consumer loan delinquency rate has reached historical highs, indicating increased financial pressure on low- and middle-income households[12] - China's household and corporate credit growth remains weak, despite an expansionary fiscal policy[87] Real Estate Insights - The US housing market continues to experience stagnation, with home sales and prices at historical lows due to high interest rates[15] - In China, the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, but new home sales in major cities are still lagging[55] Currency Outlook - The US dollar index is expected to weaken slightly, potentially dropping to 95 by year-end due to pressures from the White House on the Federal Reserve[42] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to be around 7.1 by the end of this year, with a slight appreciation of the RMB expected in 2026[88]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term trading liquidity is loose, and the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to oscillate upward, reaching 81,500 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is almost certain, but the continuous boost to copper prices is limited, and the "stagflation - like" environment restricts the scope of interest rate cuts. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, with medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions providing bottom support. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price showed a low - level oscillating trend. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand pull is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the short - term price will oscillate around the peak - season expectation and actual consumption realization, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of the price rising and then falling if demand improvement is less than expected [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated at a high level. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, and the demand has a slight recovery. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of improved interest rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, but Shanghai zinc is relatively weak. The supply is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market is generally strong. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the interest rate cut rhythm remains unchanged, and domestic policies are favorable. Industrially, the stainless steel demand is weak, while the price of nickel sulfate is rising. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated upward. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and domestic policies are positive. The supply pressure exists, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Policy windows boost the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually clear, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract price center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1.89% to 54% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The regenerated aluminum alloy operating rate decreased by 0.35% to 53.41% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing operating rate increased by 5.98% to 56.06% [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel product was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 478,100 tons [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 72,450 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [17].

Consumption Data - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slowing from 3.7% in the previous month[2] - The retail sales growth was negatively impacted by a 2.3% decline in tobacco and alcohol sales, which reduced the overall growth rate by 0.03 percentage points[7] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly stimulated sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, while oil and petroleum products saw negative growth due to global economic conditions[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market and low consumer confidence[2] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 8%, with personal mortgage loans down 10.5%[28] Investment Trends - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, slowing by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 2%, but the overall investment environment remains challenging due to reduced government spending and ongoing market adjustments[30] - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 5.1%, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in industrial investment[36] Economic Outlook - Industrial production growth for January to August was 6.2%, maintaining stability but facing challenges from insufficient domestic demand[39] - The urgency for macroeconomic adjustments has increased, with potential policy focuses on interest rate cuts and increased issuance of government bonds[44] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and unexpected credit events[47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The short - term improvement in interest - rate cut expectations boosts copper prices, but the long - term impact of interest - rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reasons and macro background. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectations" [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand stimulation is limited. The price is under pressure from inventory accumulation, but the downside space is relatively limited. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate around the realization of peak - season expectations and actual consumption, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement is less than expected, the price may fall after rising [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5][6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Under the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metal prices are generally strong, but zinc shows relatively weak performance. The supply is expected to be loose, and the upward space is limited, but the price may be driven up by the macro - environment in the short term [8]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is favorable, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [13]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton. The macro - expectations are improved, and the cost is supported, but the peak - season demand has not been significantly released [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Policy windows boost the macro - expectations, and the demand is optimistic, while the supply path is becoming clearer [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.10% to 2,064 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.84 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 296,900 tons, a decrease of 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton, and the alumina average price in various regions decreased slightly. The import profit and loss was - 1,745 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, and the aluminum profile production rate increased by 1.89% to 54%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 485,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 21,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference between scrap and refined aluminum in various regions increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, an increase of 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 3,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.12 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the refined zinc import volume was 17,900 tons, a decrease of 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 40.00% to 350 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a decrease of 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, an increase of 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.22% to 2,300 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.27% to 224,484 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 1.14% to 13,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel net export volume was 343,200 tons, an increase of 22.37% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 72,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.13% to 74,150 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, an increase of 8.25% month - on - month [17].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton is in a range - bound adjustment in the short term. The short - term macro influence is strengthening. The overseas market is oscillating weakly, while the domestic market has a slight improvement in demand and some support from rigid demand, but it is also affected by factors such as new cotton picking and the wait - and - see attitude of ginners [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The spot price of 328 - grade cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of cotton in different regions was reported. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, the cotton cloth market demand was weak, and the home textile market had increased sales but poor order continuity [7] - **Macro and Overseas Market**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision this week. The USDA September supply - demand report was slightly bearish. The weekly export data of US cotton weakened, and the CFTC fund net long position remained low, with the outer market oscillating weakly [8] - **Domestic Market**: Some areas have started manual picking, and mechanical picking will start next week. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, with a slight year - on - year increase. Ginners are waiting for price guidance. The demand side has a slight destocking of finished products, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate has a seasonal increase, with rigid demand support [8] 3.2 Industry News - In August 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and knitted textile revenue was 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative revenue was 940 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% - As of September 11, the inventory of ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contract remained at 15,474 bales. As of September 9, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 27.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rate data [16][20][26]

Core Viewpoint - The demand continues to decline and is still searching for a bottom, with various economic indicators showing signs of weakness in August [4][10]. Demand Analysis - In August, the total retail sales (社零) grew by 3.4% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [4][10]. - The structure of retail sales reflects a continued slowdown, particularly in the "old-for-new" category, which saw a decrease from 5.0% to 4.4% in growth [4][10]. - High-frequency data indicates that retail sales of home appliances and passenger vehicles have shown negative year-on-year growth since September, suggesting significant pressure on retail growth for the remainder of the year [4][10]. Fixed Asset Investment - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth fell to 0.5% year-on-year in the first eight months, down from 1.6% in July, with a month-on-month seasonally adjusted decline of 0.2% [5][6]. - The construction and installation sector remains a major drag, contributing a 1.6 percentage point decline to fixed asset investment, which has widened by 1.0 percentage points compared to the first seven months [5][6]. - Investment in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed year-on-year declines of -12.9%, +5.4%, and +5.1%, respectively, with all sectors experiencing a decrease compared to the previous month [5][6]. Real Estate Market - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in August saw a year-on-year decline of -10.6%, worsening from -7.8% in July, while the sales amount remained stable at -14.0% [28][29]. - The funding situation for real estate companies improved slightly, with the year-on-year decline in funds received narrowing to -11.9% from -15.8% in July, but new construction and project areas continue to show significant declines [29][30]. - The overall real estate sales volume and price improvement is contingent upon effective policies that enhance supply and demand dynamics [29][30]. Production Sector - The industrial value-added and service production indices in August were 5.2% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued decline in production growth [8][10]. - The export delivery value turned negative in August, with a year-on-year decline of -0.4%, reflecting weak domestic demand and certain industry pressures [8][10]. Market Performance - Despite the weak economic data, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown strong performance, reaching new highs for the year, driven by emotional and liquidity factors [10][11]. - The market's short-term volatility is expected to increase, but the underlying bullish trend remains intact, supported by structural improvements in key industries [11][12].