石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-26 地缘溢价回落，供需两弱格局延续 市场分析 1、6月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3574元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌69元/吨，跌幅 1.89%；持仓251579手，环比下降17999手，成交282213手，环比下降178364手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3920—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3700—3800元/吨。 随着中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅， 并带动包括沥青在内的能源板块期货整体下跌。现货方面，昨日西北、华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格暂时持稳， 其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。 原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性增强，或带动沥青产能利用率增加。与此同时， 天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为谨慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil market is returning to fundamentals, with a significant decrease in US crude oil inventories, highlighting supply-side value and boosting oil soft power [1][3] - As of the last trading session, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery settled at $64.92 per barrel, up $0.55, a rise of 0.85%, while Brent crude oil for August delivery settled at $67.68 per barrel, up $0.54, a rise of 0.80% [1] - The US Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in crude oil inventories, far exceeding the market expectation of 1.3 million barrels, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline [1][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical risk premium is diminishing, with President Trump stating that tensions in the Middle East have "ended" and that the US will hold talks with Iran while maintaining pressure on Iranian oil revenues [1][3][4] - The OPEC alliance is considering increasing production again in August, with Russia expressing willingness to support this if deemed necessary, although there are internal disagreements among member countries regarding production strategies [2][4] - The current market is characterized by a "pulse rebound" in oil soft power, but overall, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC's production decisions [2][4] Group 3 - The decline in inventories emphasizes the scarcity of supply, reinforcing the physical supply-demand tension in the oil market and shifting focus from geopolitical conflicts to domestic fundamentals in the US [3] - The dynamic interplay of macroeconomic disturbances, such as the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential new trade tensions, is likely to suppress oil demand expectations [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations may further limit the rebound potential of oil prices, creating additional pressure alongside the diminishing geopolitical premium [4]

宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘情绪反复，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

6月25日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜在伊朗和以色列暂时停火的支撑下上涨，这改善了整 体市场情绪，金属市场的注意力转移到了现货铜合约溢价的大幅下跌上。 渣打银行分析师Sudakshina Unnikrishnan表示，本季度迄今为止，铜价一直保持稳定，因为铜受全球经 济增长前景担忧、铜精矿供应受限和LME注册仓库库存减少等因素左右。 伦敦时间6月25日17:00(北京时间6月26日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨43.5美元，或0.45%，收报每吨 9,712.5美元。 | | 6月25日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 全屋 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9.712.50 ↑ | +43.50 ↑ +0.45% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,563.50 ↓ | -15.50 J -0.60% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,704.50 ↑ | +23.00 ↑ +0.86% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,032.00 ↑ | +13.00 ↑ +0.64% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,074.00 ↑ | +154.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from TS Lombard suggest that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4% due to stable term premiums and limited room for further yield declines if risk premiums do not compress significantly [1] Group 1: Yield Analysis - The additional yield required by investors for holding longer-term U.S. Treasuries, known as term premium, has not changed significantly recently [1] - The stability in term premiums indicates that there is limited space for further declines in yields [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America analyst Adarsh Sinha indicates that interest rate differentials are no longer the primary driver of the US dollar's movement since the announcement of comprehensive tariffs by Trump in April [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting the Dollar - The decoupling of the dollar from interest rate differentials reflects structural risk premiums in the US [1] - Contributing factors include rising inflation due to tariffs, weakened economic growth outlook, peak exceptionalism of the US economy, and increasing fiscal deficit risks [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Interest rate differentials may regain importance in driving the dollar, especially if the Federal Reserve implements more rate cuts sooner than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, which has led to concerns about supply disruptions. However, recent developments indicate a potential easing of these tensions, which may impact supply expectations and pricing dynamics in the near term [1][5][8]. Supply Dynamics - Methanol prices have recently corrected after a spike driven by fears of supply chain disruptions in Iran due to escalating conflicts. The price settled at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.95% [1]. - As of June 19, domestic methanol production facilities operated at 77.44% capacity, a 2.30 percentage point increase from the previous period and a 6.61 percentage point increase year-on-year. High profits from coal-to-methanol production are encouraging operational activity [1]. - Reports indicate that Iran's methanol production facilities may restart operations following a proposed ceasefire agreement, which could significantly alter supply expectations for July imports to China [1][4]. Demand Factors - The average operating rate of domestic coal-to-olefins (MTO) facilities is at 85.53%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32 percentage points. Traditional downstream sectors like formaldehyde and acetic acid are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to a focus on essential procurement [2]. - The methanol port inventory in China reached 670,500 tons as of June 25, an increase of 84,100 tons from the previous period, indicating a significant accumulation of stock [2]. Market Outlook - According to various institutions, the methanol market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to oscillate within a high range due to the interplay of geopolitical factors and domestic supply-demand dynamics. Key focus areas include the pace of Iranian facility restarts and the actual growth in import volumes [4][5][6]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the easing of geopolitical risks, which has led to a correction in energy prices and a potential weakening of domestic methanol futures [5][6]. - The overall market logic is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions, with ongoing uncertainties in international relations affecting trading strategies [7][8].

Core Insights - The limited fluctuations in oil prices during the Israel-Iran conflict highlight the increased efficiency of energy markets and a fundamental transformation in global crude oil supply, indicating that Middle Eastern politics may no longer dominate the oil market [1][6] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Following the Israeli attack on Iran, Brent crude oil futures rose from below $70 per barrel on June 12 to nearly $80 after the U.S. airstrike on June 23, but subsequently fell to $67 after a perceived de-escalation [1] - The price volatility of 15% during the conflict suggests that traders have significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium associated with the Middle East [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Stability - The revolution in information transparency allows investors to monitor oil supply and demand more accurately, leading to a rational assessment of Iran's long-term blockade capabilities [2] - Major oil-producing countries have prepared for potential disruptions, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE having alternative pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The global energy supply structure has changed, with OPEC's share of global oil supply decreasing from over 50% in the 1970s to 33% in 2023, primarily due to the surge in U.S. shale oil production [2][5]

Group 1: Oil Market Performance - Domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a significant decline, closing down 8.13% at 508.6 yuan/barrel after reaching a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel [1] - Fuel oil main contract fell 5.96% to 3015 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil main contract dropped 2.85% to 3716 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation has led to a reduction in speculative long positions, contributing to the decline in oil prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risk index has risen significantly due to Middle Eastern conflicts, increasing the risk premium in the oil futures market [2] - Despite a decrease in geopolitical tensions, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, maintaining strong demand for immediate supply [1][2] - U.S. manufacturing data shows marginal improvement, with the Market Manufacturing PMI at 52%, indicating ongoing industrial expansion [2] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories, with crude oil stocks down by 4.23 million barrels, indicating limited supply pressure during the consumption peak [2] - Gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, while U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.431 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest cautious trading strategies, recommending light positions in crude oil put options due to ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The potential for supply disruptions is increasing, and close monitoring of geopolitical changes is advised [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend as the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel has cooled down the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to a retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [4]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures are expected to remain weak and volatile under the pressure of bearish sentiment, also because of the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [8]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.56 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant increase of 7.23% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant increase of 293,600 tons compared with 1.7043 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 596 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 72,600 tons compared with the same period last year. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week of June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a decrease of 59,900 tons compared with 427,300 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a decrease of 49 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and volatile trend, with an increase in market bullish power. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 13,770 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | 80 yuan/ton | - 105 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,655 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,391 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 264 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 484.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 508.6 yuan/barrel | - 10.0 yuan/barrel | - 23.9 yuan/barrel | +10.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts related to rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol: There are charts related to methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34]. - Crude Oil: There are charts related to crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47].