【环球网财经综合报道】随着"关税""不确定性""衰退"等词在一季度财报电话会议中高频出现，本周将公布财报的一批美 国零售企业，将进一步揭示关税背景变化对经济的影响。 此前，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦取得重要成果，缓解了外界对特朗普关税致经济衰退的担忧。然而，特朗普与沃尔 玛在涨价问题上交锋后，零售商处境更受关注。 消费者支出作为美国经济活动重要晴雨表，出现放缓迹象。最新数据显示，因关税担忧提前购买的提振作用减弱，美国4月 零售销售增长大幅放缓至0.1%，远低于3月1.7%的两年最快涨幅。华尔街认为，贸易战平息前，消费者支出或持续不稳， 增加经济滞涨甚至衰退风险。4月支出放缓表明，美国家庭面对关税影响价格与经济时态度谨慎。券商Raymond James首席 经济学家阿尔曼称，消费者愈发挑剔，谨慎选择消费与削减开支。 行业统计显示，美国关税仍高于数十年水平，更贵的进口价格或使买家却步。经纪商Global X投资策略主管Scott Helfstein 表示，消费者仍在消费，但难比去年盛况。密歇根大学最新调查显示，美国消费者信心指数连续第五个月下跌，从上月 52.2降至50.8。分项指标显示，因担心收入下降，个人财 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，利空金价；美 国衰退预期上升，利好金价 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍趋于震荡 | 说明： 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨天日内金价震荡运行，夜盘金价拉升明显，沪金增仓上行明显，突破 760 关口，站上 770 关口，纽约金触及 3300 美元一线。财联社 5 月 21 日讯，据媒体报道，有多名美国官员透露称， 美国获取的最新情报显示，以色列可能正在准备对伊朗核设施发动打击。短期我们认为局部地缘政治 加剧叠加美国经济走弱，给予了金价反弹的动力。技术上，短期沪金突破 760 关口，纽约金突破 3250 关口，上行动力较 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]

企业和家庭将继续观望。 美国亚特兰大联储主席Bostic：预计未来不会出现经济衰退。 ...

智通财经5月21日电，亚特兰大联邦储备银行总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国预计不会出现经济衰退，但不确 定家庭和企业何时会放心进行长期支出决定。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：预计不会出现经济衰退，但不清楚家庭和企业何时才能安心做出长期支出决策。 ...

特朗普政府自今年1月以来，向全球挥舞"关税大棒"。在亚洲地区，日本和韩国是受到"特朗普衰退"影响最严重的两个国家，这表明特朗普政府发起的关税 战对美国的传统盟友造成了严重伤害。 ▲特朗普 当地时间5月19日，日本媒体刊登评论文章指出，特朗普"1.0时期"就高举关税大棒，让全球贸易遭受严重冲击，这一趋势在特朗普"2.0时期"变本加厉。从 2025年第一季度的经济数据看，日本GDP同比萎缩了0.7%，韩国GDP也环比下降0.2%。严格来说，这段时间世界各国还未遭遇特朗普政府关税政策的最严 重冲击，因为今年4月2日白宫宣布加征关税方案时第一季度已经结束。但从另一个角度讲，当时仅是从白宫传出的混乱的政策信号，在3月份已经让亚洲一 些地区的经济信心受到打击。 对于日本来说，25%的汽车出口税和24%的对等关税对其优势产业造成了显著冲击，日本经济在二季度后将面临巨大下行压力，这也会影响投资者对日本经 济前景的信心。据环球网报道，瑞银经济学家发表报告称："关税和不确定性冲击可能导致日本出口暴跌，消费者信心将进一步下降，日本GDP增长自第二 季度起可能出现彻底的疲软。" 目前，日本自民党距离参议院选举还有约两个月时间，随着首 ...

智通财经5月20日电，摩根大通CEO戴蒙表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为50%。 ...

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：经济衰退的可能性为50%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating triggering market sell-offs, US stocks and bonds rebounded strongly, primarily driven by record buying from retail investors [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors net bought $4.1 billion by 12:30 PM ET, marking the largest net buying in history for that time period, exceeding 11 standard deviations [3]. - Retail trading volume accounted for approximately 36% of total trading volume, also a historical high, with total net buying reaching an astonishing $5.4 billion by market close [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Historical Context - Analysts noted that Moody's downgrade was seen as "academic," with the interest rate market already factoring in the unsustainable nature of the US fiscal deficit [3]. - Historical data suggests that after previous downgrades of US government debt, the stock market underperformed compared to bonds in the following months [6]. - In 2011, during the debt ceiling negotiations, the stock market began to decline and underperformed against bonds after the S&P downgrade [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Market Sentiment - There is a paradox where significant spending cuts, even if wasteful, could lead to an economic recession, as highlighted by JPMorgan's analysis [9]. - The market's resilience is likened to an acquired immunity, suggesting that past extreme conditions have altered investor perceptions of risk [9]. - JPMorgan's trading desk maintained a bullish outlook, indicating that any weakness in economic indicators should be viewed as a buying opportunity [10].