Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China is set to enhance policy reserves and research on "Two New" initiatives, which include large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs, to stimulate consumption, stabilize investment, promote transformation, and improve livelihoods [1][2] Group 1: Consumption Enhancement - As of May 5, 2023, five major product categories, including automobiles, home appliances, digital products, home renovation, and electric bicycles, have driven sales of approximately 830 billion RMB [1] - The trade-in program for automobiles has seen over 3 million subsidy applications, while over 55 million units of 12 categories of home appliances have been purchased through trade-in programs [2] Group 2: Investment Growth - From January to April 2023, investment in equipment and tools increased by 18.2% year-on-year, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth [1] - Investment in sectors closely related to "Two New," such as computer and office equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing, and equipment manufacturing, saw growth rates of 28.9%, 13.4%, and 8.2% respectively [1] Group 3: Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for green, intelligent, and high-quality products is driving equipment updates, which in turn enhance production efficiency and improve industry performance and profitability [1] Group 4: Policy Implementation - The NDRC plans to expedite fund allocation for the 2024 consumer goods trade-in program and improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Future initiatives include simplifying subsidy application processes, establishing a direct funding mechanism, and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates to reduce financing costs for businesses [2]

Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) - The Beijing Tiantan Hospital has established a clinical and translational ward for brain-computer interface technology, marking the first clinical application of BCI in China. The ward will conduct clinical trials and promote the transformation of scientific research into practical applications [1] - BCI technology is recognized as a key core technology for human-machine interaction and is being developed in various fields including bionics, medical diagnosis, and consumer electronics. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans to advance BCI technology and products [1] - McKinsey predicts that the global BCI industry could generate up to $200 billion in economic value over the next 10-20 years [1] IPv6 - The Chinese government has set goals for IPv6 deployment by the end of 2025, aiming for 850 million active users and 1.1 billion IoT IPv6 connections. The share of IPv6 traffic in fixed networks is expected to reach 27%, while mobile networks will exceed 70% [2] - The IPv6 market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by policies, technology, and demand, with significant investment opportunities across the industry chain [3] - By 2025, the global number of IPv6 device connections is projected to exceed 7.5 billion, with China's IPv6+ IoT market expected to surpass 250 billion yuan [3] Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) - The Beijing Tongzhou International Seed Industry Science and Technology Park will hold a launch event for the "Jingbanxin 1.0" project, focusing on tomato breeding using solid-phase gene chip technology, which has been dominated by foreign companies [3] - The project aims to enhance China's self-sufficiency in seed technology and reduce reliance on foreign technology, addressing high research costs and technological constraints [4] - The gene chip market is in a growth phase, with China expected to become the second-largest market globally by 2030, supported by technological breakthroughs and favorable policies [4] Macro and Industry News - China dominates the global shipping industry, with eight of the top ten ports for cargo and six for container throughput located in the country [5] - Government bond issuance is accelerating, with a 17.7% year-on-year increase in national government fund budget expenditures from January to April [6] - A new high-proportion renewable energy grid control system has been developed in China, addressing the challenge of integrating large-scale renewable energy into the grid [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance policies for consumer goods replacement and large-scale equipment updates, with a focus on fixed asset investment projects in energy and high-tech sectors [7]

Group 1: Economic Development and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the list of all "two重" construction projects by the end of June, with a focus on both "hard investment" and "soft construction" [2][3] - In 2024, the NDRC has allocated 700 billion yuan for special long-term bonds to support major projects, including infrastructure along the Yangtze River and high-standard farmland construction [2] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of these projects in stabilizing economic operations, optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing public welfare [2] Group 2: Foreign Investment Policies - The NDRC is revising and expanding the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog" to attract more foreign investment, particularly in high-end manufacturing and digital economy sectors [4] - Policies to encourage reinvestment by foreign enterprises in China are being developed, focusing on enhancing resource support and optimizing financial assistance [4] - The NDRC has established a task force to expedite the implementation of significant foreign investment projects, having already facilitated 66 projects with a total investment of 97 billion USD [5] Group 3: Market Competition and Regulation - The NDRC is addressing "involution" in competition, where some industries face structural issues and engage in unhealthy price competition [7] - Measures include promoting innovation, enhancing local regulations to eliminate protectionism, and optimizing industrial layouts to prevent the disorderly expansion of outdated capacities [8] - The NDRC is committed to strengthening market supervision to maintain fair competition and combat illegal activities such as counterfeit goods and price violations [8] Group 4: Consumer Market and Economic Stimulus - The NDRC has reported that as of May 5, over 3 million applications for the vehicle trade-in subsidy have been submitted, indicating strong consumer demand [9] - Retail sales in various categories, including home appliances and digital products, have shown significant year-on-year growth, contributing to an increase in total retail sales [9] - The NDRC plans to enhance the efficiency of fund allocation for consumer subsidies and streamline the application process to improve consumer experience [10]

5月20日，国家发改委召开5月份新闻发布会。 国家发改委：系统谋划7方面53项配套举措 推动民营经济促进法落地见效 国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超表示，民营经济促进法今日起正式施行，这是社会主义 市场经济建设的标志性事件，在我国民营经济发展历程中具有里程碑意义。国家发改委将从三方面推动法 律实施工作：一是全面开展法律宣传活动，二是加快推动配套政策措施落地见效，三是会同有关部门和地 方，切实推动解决民营企业关心和关切问题。 其中，在制定配套政策方面，国家发改委会同有关部门系统谋划了7个方面53项政策举措。目前相关政策 举措已陆续出台实施。例如，关于健全社会信用体系意见、市场准入壁垒清理整治行动等。后续国家发改 委还将建立细化台账，逐项推动相关政策举措出台和实施。 在解决民企关心的问题方面，则要用好新增地方政府专项债等相关政策，强化失信惩戒，加快构建民营企 业账款清欠进度；推动涉企执法专项行动，坚决防止违规异地执法和趋利性执法，实施好涉企收费长效监 管机制，提高涉企收费透明度。 国家发改委：大部分稳就业稳经济政策将在6月底前落地 李超表示，在加快落实既定政策基础上，国家发改委已会同有关部门加快推出稳 ...

用足用好超长期特别国债资金，推动"两新"加力扩围政策加快落地、持续显效，成为扩消费、稳投资、 促转型、惠民生的重要引擎。 5月20日，国家发展改革委召开5月份新闻发布会。 二是有力拉动投资增长。1—4月，设备工器具购置投资同比增长18.2%，对全部投资增长的贡献率为 64.5%。与"两新"密切相关的计算机及办公设备制造业、消费品制造业、装备制造业、制造业技改、原 材料制造业投资分别增长28.9%、13.4%、8.2%、5.1%、2.7%。 三是有力推动转型升级。随着绿色、智能、高品质产品消费需求持续释放，设备更新推动企业生产效率 持续提升，相关行业生产和效益同步向好。4月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值、数字产品制造业增 加值均同比增长10.0%；充电桩、新能源汽车、电动自行车、平板电脑等产品增速分别为43.1%、 38.9%、35.9%、11.7%；新能源乘用车零售量90.5万辆，增长33.9%；新能源车零售渗透率达到51.5%， 同比提升7个百分点。 四是有力改善社会民生。消费品以旧换新活动有效满足居民对高品质生活的需求。截至5月5日，全国汽 车以旧换新补贴申请量突破300万份，消费者购买12类家电以旧换新 ...

5月20日，国家发改委召开5月份新闻发布会。国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超表示， 国家发改委将会同财政部加快消费品以旧换新的资金下达工作，尽快做好2024年消费品换新资金清算工 作，下达后续资金额度。同时，提高资金使用效率，建立超长期特别国债资金直达快享机制，抓紧推出 加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政策，降低各类经营主体设备更新的融资成本；推动有关部门进一步简化补 贴申领流程，明确审核兑付时限，落实资金运作制度，提升消费者体验，缓解经营主体垫资压力。(人 民财讯) ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to accelerate the allocation of funds for the 2024 consumer goods replacement program and complete the financial settlement process [1] - The NDRC aims to improve fund utilization efficiency by establishing a direct and rapid access mechanism for ultra-long-term special government bonds and implementing interest subsidies for equipment renewal loans [1] - The NDRC will strengthen policy reserves by tracking the progress of various initiatives and researching new policies in emerging sectors, with plans to submit for approval as necessary [1]

Group 1 - Industrial production has seen rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by around 10%. The production of 3D printing equipment and industrial robots has surged by over 50%. This growth is attributed to macro policy measures that have accelerated industrial upgrades, leading to enhanced production efficiency and quality [1][3] Group 2 - Market sales are on the rise, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy. Retail sales in categories such as home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture are experiencing high growth. Various local departments are implementing special actions to boost consumption, enriching consumption scenarios and continuously releasing consumption potential [4][6] Group 3 - Foreign trade has shown resilience, with total goods import and export volume increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April 2025, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. This growth is notable against the backdrop of rising unilateralism and protectionism, supported by China's strong manufacturing capabilities and the proactive response of foreign trade enterprises through market diversification strategies [8][10] Group 4 - Investment is steadily expanding, with high-tech industry investments leading the way. Investments in information services and computer and office equipment manufacturing are in a high growth phase, indicating optimistic market expectations and strong demand for industrial upgrades, reflecting the trend of China's economic transition towards innovation-driven growth [10][12]

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/5/19 4月经济数据点评—— 经济保持韧性 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、内外因素对冲，工业生产未见显著放缓 2、社零增速回落，促消费政策仍有支撑 3、制造业及广义基建投资韧性较强 4、失业率保持季节性回落 ➢中国4月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，预期5.2%，前值7.7%。 ➢中国4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%，预期5.5%，前值5.9%。 ➢中国1-4月固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长4.0%，预期增4.3%，前值4.2%。 ➢中国4月全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，前值5.2%。 图表1：经济数据主要分项 | 单位： | 2025/4 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2024/12 | 2024/11 | 2024/10 | 2024/9 | 2024/8 | 2024/7 | 2024/6 | 2024/5 | 2024/4 | % | 规模以上工业增加值 | | | ...

田利辉分析，银行在支持消费品以旧换新政策过程中，存在资金成本压力、风险管理复杂和服务能力不 足三大难点。特别是中小银行受制于资金成本，难以匹配大行低息贷款竞争力。而且，旧商品估值缺乏 统一标准，消费者信用差异大，套取补贴等风险增加。同时，下沉市场场景分散，数字化覆盖不足，智 能风控能力有待提升。 "我本来没想换车，觉得分期得多掏钱，而一次性付全款又有点压力。"今年36岁的消费者梁悦说，前一 阵和刚换了新车的朋友聊天时才了解到，现在不仅有政府补贴，有的银行还会给以旧换新的优惠券，算 下来能省不少钱。 消费品以旧换新是提振消费的重要举措。商务部数据显示，自消费品以旧换新政策实施以来，截至4月 24日24时，已有超过1.2亿人次享受到了真金白银的补贴优惠，带动销售额超过7200亿元。具体来看， 全国汽车以旧换新270.5万辆，12类家电以旧换新4746.6万台，手机等数码产品换新3661万件，家装厨卫 换新3712.3万件，电动自行车以旧换新420万辆。 随着相关政策密集落地推进，各商业银行纷纷聚焦消费品以旧换新全链条、各环节，以精准有效的金融 服务持续激活消费市场活力。中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏认为，消费品以旧 ...