Report Summary 1. New Policies and Their Impacts - The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement is released, with 62.5 billion yuan in initial funds. The subsidy scope for home appliances is narrowed to 6 categories, and new smart products are added while home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. New car purchase subsidies remain at previous limits with 12% or 10% of the car price [2]. - Starting from 2026, the VAT rate for selling homes bought less than 2 years ago is reduced from 5% to 3%, and those bought 2 years or more are tax - free. This policy is expected to boost second - hand housing transactions but may increase supply and put pressure on housing prices [2]. 2. Market Performance A - share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 21423.26 billion yuan, an increase of 29.88 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.01% [3]. - The total A - share market capitalization is 108.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.96 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year is 418.14 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 17278.49 billion yuan [17]. Global Markets - European stocks and Hong Kong stocks led the gains. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.74%, the FTSE MIB in Italy rose 1.14%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.86%. US, Japanese, South Korean, and Saudi Arabian stock indices led the decline, with the Saudi All - Share Index falling 1.03% [3]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield is 1.8537%, a change of - 0.8 BP. The average daily prices of R001 and R007 in the inter - bank market are 1.3782% and 2.062% respectively [3]. - The US dollar index closed at 98.2181, up 0.23%. The US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9923, with the offshore RMB appreciating 57 basis points [3][4]. 3. Sector Performance - The top - performing sectors are petrochemicals, automobiles, non - ferrous metals, and machinery, with gains of 2.63%, 1.35%, 1.31%, and 1.29% respectively. The under - performing sectors are commerce and retail, real estate, public utilities, and social services, with losses of 1.56%, 1.22%, 1.14%, and 1.13% respectively [3]. - The top three sectors in terms of daily net inflow of funds are household appliances, automobiles, and machinery. The top three sectors with net inflow of funds at the end of the day are national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and non - banking finance [25]. - The top - performing themes are Yushu Robotics, reducers, and humanoid robots [25].

Group 1: Policy Overview - The 2026 "National Subsidy" policy has been officially announced, detailing specific subsidy standards for various consumer products [2] - The policy extends subsidies not only to automobiles and home appliances but also to digital and smart products, including smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, smart glasses, and smart home products [2][5] - A total of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support the consumption upgrade program, aimed at boosting consumer demand during peak seasons like New Year and Spring Festival [2][6] Group 2: Automotive Sector - The new policy continues to provide subsidies for automobiles, with greater incentives for purchasing new energy vehicles compared to traditional fuel vehicles [3] - Consumers can receive a subsidy of up to 20,000 yuan when trading in old vehicles for new energy cars, with the subsidy amount being 12% of the vehicle price [3] - The policy aims to stimulate demand for mid-to-high-end vehicle replacements, with expectations of a 5% growth in new energy vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2026 [3] Group 3: Home Appliances - The home appliance subsidy program has been adjusted to focus on products with a 1st-level energy efficiency or water efficiency rating, excluding 2nd-level products [4] - The policy emphasizes green consumption and aims to promote the upgrade of product structures towards smart and high-end appliances [4] - Certain categories, such as household stoves and range hoods, have been removed from the subsidy list [4] Group 4: Digital and Smart Products - The subsidy standards for digital and smart products remain unchanged, but the scope has been expanded to include smart glasses for the first time [5] - The policy encourages the purchase of energy-efficient and technologically advanced products, aligning with industry trends towards green and smart technology [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The subsidy for the new-for-old replacement of lithium carbonate meets expectations, and the power demand still has support [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on implementing large-scale equipment updates and new-for-old replacement policies for consumer goods in 2026, with support for automobile scrapping and replacement updates, including different subsidy standards for purchasing new energy and fuel vehicles [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 119,540 yuan, the trading volume is 9,368 lots, and the open interest is 15,739 lots; for the 2605 contract, the closing price is 121,580 yuan, the trading volume is 459,530 lots, and the open interest is 511,309 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 19,491 lots, with an increase of 1,300 lots compared to the previous day [1] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and the 2601 contract is -1,540 yuan, and the basis between the 2601 and 2605 contracts is -2,040 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,545 US dollars, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,400 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan [1] - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 45,220 yuan, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 166,450 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 115,809 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,204 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous working day [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy on consumer goods trade-in and upgrade, effective from January 1, 2026, aims to enhance the subsidy framework for key consumer products such as automobiles, home appliances, and digital devices, promoting green and intelligent consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - The policy specifies that for automobiles, a fixed percentage of the new car sales price will be subsidized for scrapping and replacing old vehicles [1]. - For home appliances and digital products, consumers will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final sales price after discounts, with a cap of 1,500 yuan for home appliances and 500 yuan for digital products [2]. - The subsidy for scrapping old cars includes 12% for purchasing eligible new energy vehicles, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan, and 10% for fuel vehicles, capped at 15,000 yuan [5]. Group 2: Local Autonomy and Support - The new policy grants local governments more autonomy to develop additional subsidy measures tailored to local consumer needs, enhancing the effectiveness of the trade-in program [3]. - Local authorities can allocate matching funds for trade-in subsidies, allowing for customized implementation based on regional characteristics [3]. Group 3: Support for Offline Retail and Rural Areas - The policy emphasizes support for offline retail, aiming to boost local consumption and enhance the shopping experience [4][6]. - It expands the coverage of subsidies to rural areas by increasing the number of eligible online and offline retailers, ensuring that rural residents can access the benefits of the trade-in program [4][6]. - The initiative encourages various retail formats to reach remote areas, enhancing service networks and consumer engagement in these regions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in in 2026 is positive. The steel market is in the off - season with inventory reduction, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. The iron ore has high inventory and potential storage fee pressure, and the coke and coal markets are affected by factors such as production resumption expectations and supply - demand changes. The glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The iron water output is basically stable, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the upstream - downstream game is strong. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is weak, and the port trading volume has increased [2][9]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is high, and the restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut of leading steel enterprises in East China [2][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization. After the four - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the downstream winter storage replenishment starts, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten [2][13]. - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][13]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: With the expected new supply in Inner Mongolia, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is expected to be further loosened. The cost still supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [3][18]. - Ferrosilicon: Low supply and low inventory support the price of ferrosilicon, but the price cut of coke restricts its upward space. The demand has not increased significantly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high, and the supply - demand is currently in excess. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14]. - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in excess. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [3][17].

●2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划已提前下达 据介绍，2026年"两新"政策主要做了3个方面优化。 优化支持范围。设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备更新，在安全领域增加消防救援、检验检测设备更新，在消费基础设施领域增加商业综合 体、购物中心、百货店、大型超市等线下消费商业设施的设备更新。消费品以旧换新方面，进一步集中 资源，着力提升覆盖人群广、带动效应强的重点消费品"得补率"。继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更 新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类 产品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品购新补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手 表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）。 优化补贴标准。设备更新方面，将住宅老旧电梯更新由定额补贴调整为按电梯层（站）数分档差异 化补贴；在老旧营运货车报废更新补贴中，优先支持更新为电动货车。消费品以旧换新方面，在保持汽 车补贴上限不变的基础上，将定额补贴调整为按车价比例进行补贴；家电以旧换新调整为补贴1级能效 或水效产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - **Coal Coke**: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - **Glass**: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - **Log**: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - **Pulp**: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - **Double Offset Paper**: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - **Meal**: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - **PX**: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **MEG**: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - **PR**: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - **PF**: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "Two New" policy aims to enhance equipment updates and promote the replacement of consumer goods, addressing key social issues and supporting economic development through targeted subsidies and optimized implementation mechanisms [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The 2026 "Two New" policy expands the support scope to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas, equipment updates in elderly care institutions, and updates for commercial facilities like shopping centers and supermarkets [2][4]. - The policy continues to support the replacement of old vehicles and household appliances, including cars, washing machines, refrigerators, and extends subsidies to digital and smart products such as smartphones and smart home devices [2][3]. Group 2: Subsidy Standards - The subsidy standards for equipment updates have been optimized, with a shift to differentiated subsidies based on the number of floors for old residential elevators, potentially easing financial burdens for high-rise buildings [4]. - For automotive subsidies, the policy adjusts from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, with specific rates for new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars, ensuring better alignment with consumer needs [5][6]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanisms - The policy introduces an optimized project application and review process, lowering the investment threshold for project applications and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [7]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide for various categories, addressing discrepancies in local subsidy standards and ensuring that more consumers benefit from the policy [7].

Group 1: Consumer Subsidy Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a subsidy policy for consumer electronics and appliances, effective from 2026, providing a 15% subsidy on the sales price for specific products [1][4] - Consumers can receive a subsidy of up to 1,500 yuan for each qualifying appliance, and up to 500 yuan for each qualifying digital product, with a limit of one subsidy per product category per consumer [1][4] - The policy also supports the replacement of vehicles, offering subsidies for consumers who trade in their cars for new energy vehicles or low-displacement fuel vehicles [4] Group 2: Market Performance - COMEX silver futures rose by 7.88%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.2%, closing at 48,367.06 points [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped by 0.24% [2] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel and Meta both gaining over 1% [2] Group 3: Corporate Announcements - China Aircraft Leasing announced the purchase of 30 Airbus A320neo aircraft, with deliveries expected to occur in phases until 2033 [9] - China Aluminum International plans to acquire a 51% stake in Yunnan Yun Aluminum Logistics for approximately 264 million yuan [15] - Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of approximately 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62% [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].