Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - On Thursday, the HC2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased again, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%. Factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, and the total inventory increased by 0.99 million tons. Overall, hot - rolled coil production remains at a high level, terminal demand is resilient, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke in furnace materials supports steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are consolidating at a low level with the green bar shrinking. Operationally, conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,103 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - HC main contract position: 1,510,669 lots, up 263 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net position: 106,068 lots, down 352 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 2 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 70,514 tons, down 1,779 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 130 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 97 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 90 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 700 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 138.9416 million tons, down 0.3898 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 811,200 tons, down 60,400 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3401 million tons, down 87,200 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.84%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.81%, up 0.25 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2724 million tons, up 0.0179 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.59%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 782,200 tons, up 17,000 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.6294 million tons, down 7,100 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 86.55 million tons, up 0.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 10.1 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner production: 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On June 26, Mysteel reported that the actual output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2724 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0179 million tons; factory inventory was 782,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons; social inventory was 2.6294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons; total inventory was 3.4116 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0099 million tons; apparent demand was 3.2625 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0444 million tons [2] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. At the same time, relevant parties will be coordinated to formulate monthly and weekly plans for using national subsidy funds in different fields to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been continuously adjusting this week, significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw. With the current interest rates remaining at a low level, profit - taking pressure has pushed interest rates slightly higher. The market's trading focus is unclear due to uncertain policy impacts in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band - based allocations [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.950，down 0.02%，成交量52163，down 1100；TF主力收盘价106.170，unchanged，成交量38895，down 930；TS主力收盘价102.510，unchanged，成交量24312，down 514；TL主力收盘价120.720，up 0.1%，成交量72122，down 2020 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2509价差 - 0.16，down 0.01；T2512 - 2509价差0.03，up 0.02；TF2512 - 2509价差0.07，down 0.02；TS2512 - 2509价差0.13，down 0.00；T09 - TL09价差 - 11.77，down 0.09；TF09 - T09价差 - 2.78，up 0.03；TS09 - T09价差 - 6.44，up 0.04；TS09 - TF09价差 - 3.66，up 0.02 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量202431，down 2650；T前20名多头191730，down 1983；T前20名空头206973，down 1544；T前20名净空仓15243，up 439；TF主力持仓量160108，down 1028；TF前20名多头147895，down 599；TF前20名空头170948，down 264；TF前20名净空仓23053，up 335；TS主力持仓量118869，up 621；TS前20名多头88068，up 211；TS前20名空头106959，up 919；TS前20名净空仓18891，up 708；TL主力持仓量115275，up 622；TL前20名多头109182，up 984；TL前20名空头116993，up 1959；TL前20名净空仓7811，up 975 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 250007.IB(6y）101.299，up 0.0155；2500802.IB(6y）99.0955，up 0.0001；240020.IB(4y)101.0633，down 0.0215；240020.IB(4y)100.8844，down 0.0667；250006.IB(1.7y)100.3688，up 0.0158；240010.IB(2y)100.8301，up 0.0069；210005.IB(17y)136.4191，down 0.5585；210014.IB(18y)132.6415，down 0.2480 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield 1.3650%，up 0.50bp；3y yield 1.4050%，down 0.25bp；5y yield 1.4950%，up 0.50bp；7y yield 1.5900%，up 1.00bp；10y yield 1.6535%，up 0.75bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight rate 1.3788%，down 4.12bp；Shibor overnight rate 1.3700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 7 - day rate 1.6668%，down 2.32bp；Shibor 7 - day rate 1.6700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 14 - day rate 1.7300%，down 2.00bp；Shibor 14 - day rate 1.7360%，up 1.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR 3.00%，unchanged；5y LPR 3.5%，unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale 5093 billion yuan，maturity scale 2035 billion yuan，interest rate 1.4% for 7 - day，net investment 3058 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects；The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on June 25；The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and formulate a monthly and weekly national subsidy fund usage plan [2] 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On June 26 at 20:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 21 and the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1；On June 27 at 20:30, focus on the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May；On June 27 at 22:00, focus on the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in June [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to remain ample, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash started to converge this week, and basis convergence trading may continue. Futures are expected to decline at a slower pace. It is recommended to go short on the main soda ash contract [2]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the idea of going short on rallies should be maintained. The supply shows little change, and demand is expected to weaken further. The subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations, and the expected rebound height and strength will be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Soda Ash**: The closing price of the main contract is 1180 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,529,195 lots, down 32,209 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 248,998 lots, up 58,828 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,693 tons, down 5 tons. The spread between the September and January contracts is 7 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 31 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Glass**: The closing price of the main contract is 1016 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,435,796 lots, down 9,579 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 238,048 lots, up 7,865 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged. The spread between the September and January contracts is - 49 yuan, up 2 yuan. The basis is 39 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1197 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; East China light soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Soda Ash**: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 86.46%, up 1.56 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 175.59 tons, up 2.92 tons [2]. - **Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, down 0.08 percentage points. The in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, down 0.02 million tons. The number of in - production production lines is 223, down 1. The inventory of glass enterprises is 69,887,000 weight boxes, up 202,000 weight boxes [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative value of newly started area in the real estate sector is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The cumulative value of completed area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Li Qiang attended the Business Community Representatives' Symposium at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum. - The Iranian Defense Minister arrived in China to participate in the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$9.42 billion in the market as the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate hit the weak - side convertibility undertaking. - XPeng Motors stated that the overseas market is tightening the import of zero - kilometer used cars, and XPeng does not adopt this export model. - He Lifeng pointed out during an inspection in Hebei that it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand and boost consumption to better promote high - quality economic development. - The first pension - themed corporate bond in China was successfully issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. - The third - batch funds for the replacement of consumer goods with new ones will be allocated in July [2].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will issue the third batch of funds for the consumption goods replacement program in July, ensuring the policy is implemented in an orderly manner throughout the year [1] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of "timeliness" and "balance" in the allocation of funds, with plans to develop monthly and weekly usage schedules for national subsidies [1] - A total of 200 billion yuan will be allocated to support equipment upgrades through special long-term government bonds, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already allocated to around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [1]

Economic Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that the overall operation of the Chinese economy remains stable this year [1] - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old for new" consumption policy in July, ensuring orderly implementation throughout the year [1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index grew by 6.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The fixed asset investment has shown stable growth, with manufacturing investment rising by 8.5% [4] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate in 2024 [4] - Exports in May, measured in RMB, grew by 6.3%, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN (17.5%), the EU (13.7%), and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (13.8%) [4] Energy Supply and Demand - The NDRC anticipates that the peak electricity load during the summer will increase by approximately 10 million kilowatts year-on-year, with a better supply-demand balance compared to last year [9][10] - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity reached 361 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [10] Preparedness for Natural Disasters - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of preparing for potential natural disasters that could impact electricity supply, including extreme weather events [12][14] - Measures are being taken to ensure rapid response and recovery to maintain electricity supply for essential services and key sectors [14]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index remained flat as of midday on June 26, with the Hong Kong consumer sector experiencing continued fluctuations [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that it will issue the third batch of subsidies for the replacement of consumer goods in July, emphasizing a focus on sustainability and balance in the implementation of the policy throughout the year [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the 300 billion yuan subsidy for the replacement program represents approximately 0.5% of the total disposable income and 0.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods for the year 2024, potentially boosting the growth rate of retail sales by about 1 percentage point if certain conditions are met [1] Group 2 - Huajin Securities highlighted that the issuance of guidelines for financial support to boost and expand consumption provides strong backing for the investment value of the consumer sector, with a focus on enhancing credit support and diversifying financing channels [1] - Popular ETFs related to the consumer sector include the Food and Beverage ETF (515170), which focuses on core assets in the food and beverage sector, and the Consumption 30 ETF (510630), which covers various sub-sectors such as liquor, food, beauty care, and biotechnology [2]

国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超在发布会上表示， 将于今年7月份下达今年第三批消费品以 旧换新资金。 同时，将协调有关方面，坚持更加注重持续性和均衡性原则，分领域制定落实到每个 月、每一周的国补资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 ...

中新网太原6月26日电(车雨榕李新锁)山西省政府新闻办25日召开新闻发布会，详解《山西省提振消费 专项行动实施方案》。其间，山西省商务厅副厅长梁志勇表示，山西将持续加力扩围实施消费品以旧换 新，不断优化补贴审核流程，提高资金兑付效率，推动全省消费市场企稳回升。 山西加力提振消费。 山西省政府新闻办供图 在以旧换新补贴资金方面，2024年清算工作已完成，共计补贴资金55.11亿元(其中中央资金37.45亿元， 省级资金17.66亿元)。2025年已预拨资金44.44亿元(中央资金40亿元，省级配套资金4.44亿元)。 山西省财政厅副厅长、新闻发言人陈新民说，后续将根据工作开展情况加大支持力度，全力确保消费者 享受真金白银的优惠。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 今年，山西消费品以旧换新工作，突出"加力"和"扩围"。在补贴标准上，汽车置换更新执行国家限定最 高标准，对购买新能源车的消费者补贴1.5万元，燃油车补贴1.3万元；家电方面，购买1级能效水效标准 的产品可享受额外5%的补贴，立减额度达20%；电动自行车补贴标准由去年的500元提高至600元；手 机、平板、智能手表等电子产品的补贴标准为最终销售价格的15% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the comprehensive implementation of domestic demand expansion policies in the first half of 2025 is a key driver for stable economic growth in China [1] Group 2 - The effects of the consumption upgrade policy, particularly the trade-in program for consumer goods, are becoming increasingly evident [1] - There is a significant increase in service consumption demand, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1] - New forms of consumption are continuously emerging, reflecting evolving market trends [1] Group 3 - The accelerated issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are facilitating the rapid advancement of "dual" construction projects [1] - Infrastructure investment is experiencing steady growth, contributing to overall economic stability [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China's GDP growth rate to reach 5.2% in the first half of this year, with potential for upward revision [1] - The shift in macroeconomic growth momentum from export-driven to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods [1] - The Chinese government plans to issue a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt this year, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, which will support economic growth [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties and high base effects from last year may require further macroeconomic policy adjustments in the second half to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [2] - The central bank is expected to implement another round of "double cuts" (reducing reserve requirements and interest rates) in the fourth quarter, with potential for two more rate cuts next year [2] - The consumer goods trade-in policy has already generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan this year, nearing last year's total, indicating strong policy impact [2] Group 3 - Government consumption is projected to improve significantly this year, with an expected growth rate of 5% [3] - The central government has reserved sufficient fiscal tools to respond to potential uncertainties, allowing for support in case of a decline in durable goods consumption [3] - Investment remains a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with a framework assessing policy effectiveness based on funding, projects, and official incentives [3]