Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' flow analysis team indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its upward trend this month due to four main factors: improving liquidity, declining market volatility, easing recession fears, and seasonal benefits, although this upward momentum is anticipated to weaken in August [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has the potential to extend its 25% increase since the April low, with the last monthly decline occurring in July 2014 [1] - Historically, July is one of the strongest months for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.67% since 1928, and the first two weeks of July are typically the best-performing period of the year [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - In addition to seasonal factors, the current rally is supported by declining volatility, which improves capital flows and market sentiment, with an estimated $80 billion expected to flow into global equity markets over the next month [4] - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with effective risk transfer capabilities providing a healthier trading environment [4] - Investor sentiment on Wall Street has improved significantly, with reduced tensions in the Middle East and progress on several trade agreements under the Trump administration [4] Group 3: Market Concerns - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding concentrated leadership in certain sectors, the performance of low-quality stocks, and a significant increase in bullish positions [5] - Important economic indicators, including U.S. employment data, will be released this week, which could impact market sentiment [5] - Citigroup's stock strategists express caution, noting that the current rally has led to substantial profits for long positions, particularly in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices, with average holding returns around 5%, raising the risk of profit-taking potentially limiting further upside [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the tracking of U.S. labor data and the implications for Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, indicating a potential delay in such actions [1] - There is speculation about gold prices potentially reaching 3350, reflecting market reactions to economic indicators and monetary policy [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market showed significant differentiation on July 1, with the shipping index for European routes rising over 7%, while industrial silicon fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1379.05 points, up 2.58 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping index for European routes reported a 9.6% increase, reaching 2123.24 points, supported by airlines adjusting freight rates and positive market expectations for July [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The market's increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a weaker dollar, resulting in a continuous rebound in spot gold prices, with both Shanghai gold and silver rising over 1% [4] - The ongoing concerns regarding Trump's tariff policies are providing additional support for gold prices, as global public debt continues to expand [4] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Related Commodities - Industrial silicon prices fell over 4%, with production cuts from major northern manufacturers and a potential decrease in electricity prices in southern regions [5] - The supply side remains under pressure despite some production cuts, as smaller furnaces in southern regions are resuming operations, maintaining high inventory levels [5] - Focus on coal futures also showed a decline of over 3%, with expectations of increased production from various coal mines in Shanxi as environmental inspections conclude [5] Group 4: Glass Market - Glass prices dropped over 3%, with production resuming at several facilities, including a significant plant in Shandong [6] - Despite slight inventory reductions in some regions, overall demand remains weak, keeping glass prices under pressure [6]

潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 接连调整几天之后，今天，国际黄金价格突然上涨。 截至7月1日17点发稿时，伦敦现货黄金日内涨幅涨超1%，接近3340美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货涨1.3%，站上3350美元/盎司。 | 17:00 | | "l ? □ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 A | COMEX黄金 | | | | | GC.CMX | | | | 3350.6 | 昨结 3307.7 总手 | | 5.40 | | +42.9 | +1.30% / 1 3315.7 现手 | | | | 最高价 | 3354.3 持 仓 31.86万 外 盘 | | 2.3 | | 最低价 | 3313.7 壇 仓 内 壹 1455 | | 3.11 | | 分时 | 五日 周K | | 日名 | | 叠加 | 均价:3336.3 | | | | 3354.3 ... | ---------------------- | | 3350.9 3350.7 | | | | 4:44 | 3351.1 | | AM | | 4:44 | 3351.2 | | 3307.7 | 0.00% ...

当前全球金融市场的主旋律无疑是围绕着美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）的货币政策预期展开的。特别是 外汇市场，正经历着一场由"降息热潮"所主导的显著波动。 市场参与者似乎已经完全沉浸在对美联储即将放松货币政策的预期之中，其激进程度甚至超越了美联储 官员公开表达的谨慎立场。 期货市场对九月降息的完全定价以及对七月降息的显著概率赋予，反映了一种强烈的信念：即美联储将 很快屈服于某种压力（无论是经济数据的恶化还是潜在的政治考量），转向宽松。 这种激进的降息预期直接导致了美元在本周初的疲软。 美元作为全球储备货币和避险资产，其价值与美国的利率水平和经济前景紧密相关。当市场预期利率将 下降时，持有美元的吸引力随之减弱，资金倾向于流向收益率更高或增长前景更好的资产。 德国通胀的温和上升提示了欧元区内部可能存在的通胀压力，这可能使欧洲央行（ECB）在考虑降息时 更加谨慎。欧洲央行目前维持的"坐视不理"立场，与市场对美联储的激进预期形成对比，这限制了欧元 自身上涨的动力。 2 年期掉期利差的收窄虽然提供了技术性支撑，但欧元/美元的长期走势仍将主要取决于美元的走向以 及市场对美联储政策的重新定价。 与外汇市场的"降息热潮"形成鲜明对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by optimism surrounding the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill and a weakening U.S. dollar, which has created a favorable environment for copper and other base metals [3][4][8]. Group 1: Copper Price Movement - International copper prices spiked, reaching a high of $9,984, with a rise of over 1% [1][6]. - Domestic copper futures also saw an increase, closing up by 1.09% [2][6]. - The surge in copper prices has positively impacted related stocks, such as Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper, which experienced significant gains [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The optimism in the market is largely attributed to the voting process of the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is expected to boost market confidence [3]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below 97, marking a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, the worst performance since 1973 [4][8]. - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts starting in September 2025, further supporting the prices of base metals [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Support - The current copper price is supported by both macroeconomic factors and fundamentals, with expectations of a trade agreement among major partners and increased fiscal deficits due to the U.S. bill [10]. - LME copper inventories are declining, and there is a significant increase in the premium for copper, indicating tightening supply conditions [11]. - The market is currently in a tight balance regarding refined copper supply, with limited production increases expected [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 in August [13]. - The outlook for copper prices remains positive, with expectations of reaching $10,000 to $11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, contingent on macroeconomic policies and global economic recovery [12].

期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】 2025年7月1日 星期二 Z0015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79990 | 80125 | -135.00 | -0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 130 | 110 | +20.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 79940 | 80070 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 65 | તેર | -30.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 79915 | 80045 | -130.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | રક | 30 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2131 | 1965 | +166.39 | 8.47% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 ...

| CE KERD | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | 人业资格号:F025 以 | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | 震荡 | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场风险偏好改善, | 金价短期或承压;但关税不确定性仍高企, | 農汤 | 百金 | | 金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | 震荡 | 银价短期震荡为主。 | 白银 | | | | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论,市场风险偏好回升,叠加海 | 外挤仓行情发酵,短期铜价偏强。 | 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回升,叠加电解铝库存5 | | | | | 低位运行,铝价偏强运行。 | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化 | 氢化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 供 ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 投资策略 | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-06-27 | 2025-06-20 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 79870 | 79920 | 77990 | -50.00 | | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 100845 | 131756 | 65822 | -30,811.00 ~~~ | | | | 持仓量(手) | 212911 | 215705 | 166882 | -2,794.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 25851 | 25346 | 33882 | 505.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 79990 | 801 25 | 78400 | -135.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 沪铜基差 | 120 | 205 | 410 | -85.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | 65 | 95 | 9 ...