Summary of Conference Call on Coking Coal Market Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the coking coal industry, specifically the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and the impact of government policies on production and pricing. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the growth rate of coking coal supply exceeded that of demand, leading to a relaxed supply-demand relationship and downward pressure on prices [1][2] - Coking coal demand improved compared to the previous year, with coke production increasing by 3.1% year-on-year [1][9] - Domestic coking coal supply is expected to meet forecasts, but imports are projected to decrease by over 10 million tons for the year, primarily due to the loss of cost-effectiveness of U.S. coking coal and lower imports from Mongolia and Russia [1][9] Price Trends - Coking coal prices rebounded from 700 RMB/ton to nearly 1,300 RMB/ton after June 2025, driven by macroeconomic sentiment, policy changes, and fundamental supply-demand improvements [1][4] - Prices in the third quarter are expected to stabilize between 780 and 850 RMB/ton, supported by tightening supply expectations and improved fundamentals in the second half of the year [1][10][11] - The market is anticipated to have upward driving factors in the second half, with traditional winter storage demand expected to begin in November [1][11] Impact of Government Policies - The National Energy Administration's coal mine production inspection policy has raised expectations for supply-side reforms, although the actual impact is limited due to most provinces not exceeding capacity utilization significantly [1][6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to influence coal supply, with inspections focusing on key coal-producing provinces [6] Seasonal and Structural Factors - The upcoming military parade on September 3 is expected to lead to production restrictions in steel mills and coking enterprises, which will impact demand [7][8] - Short-term inventory adjustments are anticipated, with a rapid recovery in iron production expected post-parade [11][13] Future Outlook - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a strong momentum in the short term, but attention should be paid to policy changes and international market dynamics that could affect supply-demand relationships [5] - The overall market fundamentals in the second half of 2025 are expected to be better than in the first half, with a potential for price increases driven by winter storage and demand recovery [10][16] Import Dynamics - Coking coal imports in the first half of 2025 decreased by 4 million tons, with an annual forecast of over 10 million tons reduction due to various factors including tariffs and price declines [19][20] - The U.S. has ceased coking coal exports to China, which has limited global market impacts due to structural differences in coal types [21] Production Capacity and Utilization - Current production capacity utilization rates are around 86-87%, down from 90% in May, with expectations that it will not return to May's levels due to policy impacts [26][27] Iron Production Expectations - Iron production is expected to remain high in September, with estimates between 240,000 to 245,000 tons, contingent on export levels and potential government measures to reduce crude steel output [28][29] Additional Important Insights - The market is currently experiencing a phase of inventory accumulation, particularly among steel mills, with strong recovery intentions noted due to improved profitability compared to the previous year [11][12] - The potential for price increases in coking coal and coke is contingent on market conditions and the ability to maintain high production levels [12][16]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The steel industry is experiencing a phase of "anti-involution," which shows improvement but relies on demand support and self-driven supply-demand turning points [1][3][5] - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with a global supply decrease of over 100,000 tons in the first half of the year, leading to a weak supply-demand balance [10][17] Key Points and Arguments Steel Industry - The steel sector performed well in the first half of 2025 due to self-driven profit points, coking coal concessions, and policy expectations [1][5] - The second half of 2025 is expected to enter a phase of anti-involution execution and production cuts, leading to a new round of profit improvement [5][6] - Current macro conditions are similar to 2021, with a demand downturn and policy speculation, but the market has found a bottom, reducing reliance on policy support [1][6] - The average daily pig iron output has not significantly decreased, indicating that production cuts have not yet been effectively implemented [6] Copper Market - The 232 tariff policy has led to high copper inventories in the U.S., resulting in a proactive destocking cycle and weakening global demand [9] - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,000 and $9,500, with a potential for a new upward cycle in 2026 if major economies experience liquidity easing [11][17] Aluminum Market - Significant increases in aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum inventories, with weekly production nearing peak levels, may lead to price corrections, but prices are unlikely to fall below 20,000 RMB/ton [12] - High-dividend companies in the aluminum sector remain attractive for investment [12][18] Small Metals Market - Cobalt is entering a supply contraction and price increase phase, while rare earth materials are in short supply, leading to expected price increases [15][19] - Lithium carbonate and nickel are at cost support bottoms, requiring attention to supply-side changes for potential recovery [20] Other Important Insights - The current market environment is characterized as a "mid-game pause," with expectations for a turnaround in fundamentals in the second half of the year [5][7] - Investors are advised to focus on asset allocation opportunities, particularly during the economic bottoming process and under significant PPI pressure [7] - The overall sentiment in the gold market is cautious, with prices expected to remain in a range due to macroeconomic conditions [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the steel, copper, aluminum, and small metals markets, along with investment strategies and macroeconomic considerations.

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 长江证券表示，高层会议提出整治企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能优化，发改委加快推进价格法修 订，明确低价倾销等不正当价格行为的认定标准，重点治理低价倾销行为。政策主线表明"反内卷"政策 将持续推进，"反内卷"治理并非一味追求价格上涨，而是通过规范价格行为，避免无序竞争。类比 2016~2018年供给侧改革，政策预期阶段板块走势波折，直到落后产能集中退出时，板块主升浪才逐步 浮现。因此，长期来看，钢铁板块的投资价值仍值得期待。 市场上唯一跟踪钢铁行业的钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪中证钢铁指数，从A股市场中选取涉及钢铁制造、 加工及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。成 分股覆盖了钢铁产业链上下游企业，具有显著的行业集中特征。 ...

作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF(515220)跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），截至7月22日，股息率 5.45%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可考虑逢低分批布局煤炭ETF（515220）及其联接 基金（联接A：008279；联接C：008280；联接E：022501），把握煤炭板块投资机会。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证煤炭ETF联接C（008280），国泰中证煤炭ETF联接A （008279）。 注：数据来源wind，供给侧改革时间区间2016/02/01-2017/12/31，采用申万一级行业指数，指数历史走 势仅供参考，不代表投资建议，不预示未来。如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期 涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资 建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需 购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 相关机构表示，动力煤价格持续反弹，截至 8 月 1 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为663 元/ ...

Report Investment Ratings The provided content does not include industry investment ratings. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture, with different sectors facing various opportunities and challenges. Policy factors, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends are key determinants of price movements in different industries [3][5][23] - In the short - term, the market may experience fluctuations due to factors such as policy expectations, overseas interest rate decisions, and seasonal demand changes. Over the long - term, fundamental factors like supply - demand balance and cost support will play a more significant role [5][25][31] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Shanghai's support for enterprise basic research, progress in AIDS vaccine R & D, and overseas stock trading tax regulations [2] - The central government's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains, but short - term market adjustments occurred due to overseas factors and large short - term A - share gains. The general strategy is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - Tuesday's market saw some changes in contract prices. Central bank liquidity operations and relevant regulations in Hong Kong were announced [4] - The economy showed resilience in the first half, but July PMI was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term with short - term oscillations [4][5] Precious Metals - Prices of gold and silver rose. The dovish statement of a Fed official increased the probability of a larger - scale interest rate cut, supporting precious metal prices [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips, with specific price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - EU trade measures and weak US non - farm data led to a copper price rebound. LME and domestic inventories showed different trends [9] - Supply is tight, but the upside of copper prices is limited in the off - season. Specific price ranges are given for Shanghai and London copper [9] Aluminum - Domestic inventory accumulation and unclear overseas trade situations caused aluminum price oscillations. LME and domestic inventories changed [10] - Aluminum prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges for domestic and London aluminum provided [10] Zinc - Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased, and refined zinc production is expected to rise. Downstream consumption weakened [11] - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [11] Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore inventory decreased, and supply is relatively loose. Domestic inventory increased slightly [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13] Nickel - Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Nickel ore supply recovery is slow, and downstream demand is weak [14] - It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rallies, with price ranges for Shanghai and London nickel provided [14] Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply recovery is expected in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply is tight. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong [15] - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges provided [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index was flat. Weekend non - mine disturbances had a short - term impact on the contract. The supply - demand relationship may improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [16] - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points. A price range for the contract is given [16] Alumina - The index rose. Supply contraction policies need further observation, and the over - capacity situation may persist [17][18] - It is recommended to short on rallies, with a price range for the domestic contract provided [18] Stainless Steel - The price rose. Social inventory decreased slightly, and the supply of some products was tight [19] - The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, with prices oscillating strongly [19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The contract price rose slightly. The market was light, and inventory decreased [20] - The price rebound space is limited due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [20] Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. The overall market was weak, and export competitiveness declined [22][23] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price may return to the real - world trading logic. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [23] Iron Ore - The price rose. Overseas shipments decreased, and demand was affected by individual steel mills. Port inventory decreased [24][25] - The price is expected to oscillate following downstream prices, and risk control is necessary [25] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fell, and the market was bearish. Soda ash prices were stable, and inventory increased [26][27] - Glass prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. Long - term opportunities for shorting soda ash are recommended [26][27] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Prices showed different trends. The market was volatile, and the fundamentals of both are expected to weaken [28][29][30] - Investment positions are advised to wait and see, while hedging positions can be considered [28] Industrial Silicon - The price fell. Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. The impact of market sentiment has declined [32][33] - The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to new policy narratives [33] Polysilicon - The price fell. The market was affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies [34][35] - The price is expected to oscillate widely, and caution is advised [35] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Prices rebounded after a decline. The market has different views on supply and demand. Tire factory开工率 decreased, and inventory increased [37][38] - A neutral strategy is recommended, and a spread trading strategy is suggested [41] Crude Oil - Prices fell. Chinese oil inventory data showed different trends. The market has upward momentum but is limited by the off - season [42] - A short - term long strategy with a target price is recommended, and long positions can be considered for September geopolitical and hurricane factors [42] Methanol - The price fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Port inventory is accumulating [43] - The price is under pressure due to high valuation and weakening supply - demand [43] Urea - The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price decline space is limited [44] - The price volatility is expected to decline after the market sentiment cools down [44] Styrene - The spot price was stable, and the futures price fell. Cost support exists, and the BZN spread may repair [45] - The price is expected to rise following the cost after port inventory reduction [45] PVC - The price fell. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Export needs to be observed [47] - The price fell after the "anti - involution" sentiment faded [47] Ethylene Glycol - The price fell. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory decreased slightly [48] - The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the valuation may decline [48] PTA - The price fell. Supply may increase, and demand is about to end the off - season. Inventory is expected to accumulate [49] - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with PX [49] p - Xylene - The price fell. Supply increased, and demand decreased slightly. Inventory is expected to decrease [50] - The valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with crude oil [50] Polyethylene - The price fell. Cost support exists, and inventory is high. Supply pressure will increase in August [51] - It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene - The price fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price may follow crude oil [52] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices mostly fell. Policy intervention in capacity reduction affected the market. Attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [54] Eggs - Egg prices mostly fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be stable with some weakness [55] - Short - term short positions can be reduced, and medium - term shorting after a rebound is recommended [55] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices rose slightly. US soybean supply is abundant, while domestic import costs may rise [56] - A strategy of going long on dips and spread trading is recommended [57] Oils - Palm oil export data showed different trends, and production increased. The market is supported by policies and low inventory [58][59][60] - The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for an increase in the fourth quarter [61] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and import supply is increasing [62][63] - The price is likely to continue to fall [63] Cotton - Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Downstream consumption is weak, and inventory reduction has slowed down [64] - The short - term trend is bearish [64]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250805：或有回调 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/5 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | -2.62% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,360.00 | -1.65% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 940.00 46.00 | -110.00 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | N型多晶硅料 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/千克 元/吨 | 48,720.00 | -0.98% | | | 元/吨 | 基差 | | -2,720.00 | 480.00 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | -2.62% | | | 9,400.00 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | | -2.08% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement to reinstate VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025, raises questions about its net impact on government revenue and expenditure, suggesting that the effects are not neutral as many investors believe [4][9]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The policy is expected to increase both government revenue from VAT and interest expenditure on new bonds, indicating a simultaneous rise in both aspects [4][9]. - Viewing the situation from a cyclical perspective, the policy could enhance internal circulation, benefiting both government and the real economy through increased tax revenue and interest income [9][18]. Group 2: Theoretical Framework - The concepts of monetary neutrality and Ricardian equivalence are introduced to analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policies, suggesting that in reality, these policies do have significant impacts despite theoretical assumptions [10][17]. - The discussion emphasizes that market participants often lack the rationality required to fully understand the long-term implications of such policies, leading to misinterpretations of their neutrality [18][19]. Group 3: Internal Circulation and Inflation - The relationship between nominal wages and inflation is explored, indicating that increases in nominal wages can enhance internal circulation by raising both wage expenses for businesses and income for households [20][23]. - The article argues that the long-term low CPI in the domestic market is a result of systemic issues across various economic factors, including tax policies [26][30]. Group 4: Policy Signals - The reinstatement of VAT on government bonds signals a potential increase in the likelihood of canceling other tax exemptions and subsidies, particularly on government bond income tax [28][40]. - The discussion highlights the need for a systemic approach to understanding the factors contributing to internal economic challenges, rather than focusing on isolated elements [30][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent mild policy statements have revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform, cooling market sentiment. The market may return to the fundamental logic of supply - demand, and the coking coal near - month contract faces delivery pressure with short - term price correction pressure [4]. - The strict inspection of over - production in coking coal mines is true, which limits the coking coal开工率 in the second half of the year. The "anti - involution" policy details are yet to be released, and policy expectations will support the overall valuation of commodities. The pre - parade production limit expectation will support the finished product prices. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. - In terms of operation, due to the recent sharp fluctuations in the market, unilateral speculation is not recommended. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Dual - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. 3.2. Dual - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread. The hedging tools are jm2509&jm2601, the trading direction is to sell, and the recommended entry range is (-40, -30) [3]. 3.3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantities of various black commodities changed. For example, the quantity of rebar decreased by 2394 tons to 82640 tons, the quantity of hot - rolled coil decreased by 1176 tons to 55998 tons, the quantity of coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, etc. [3] 3.4. Core Contradictions - The recent policy is mild, which has revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform. The market sentiment has cooled, and the market may return to the supply - demand fundamental logic. The coking coal near - month contract has delivery pressure and short - term price correction pressure. However, the coking coal production is restricted in the second half of the year, and policy expectations support the overall valuation of commodities. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. 3.5. Bullish Interpretations - There is still an expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. - The downstream steel mills have good profits, and raw materials have a basis for price increases. - There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. 3.6. Bearish Interpretations - The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there is pressure on subsequent arrivals. - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has recovered, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. - The off - balance - sheet inventory of futures and spot flows into the market, pressuring the spot price [5]. 3.7. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - The report provides the coal and coke futures prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, inter - month spreads, on - disk coking profit, and various ratios such as the main mine - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main carbon - coal ratio, as well as their daily and weekly changes [6]. 3.8. Coal and Coke Spot Prices - The report shows the coal and coke spot prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including the prices of various types of coking coal and coke, their price types, units, and daily and weekly changes, as well as import and export profits and the coking coal/thermal coal ratio [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Benefiting from the optimistic expectations and cost support brought by the strength of coke, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was relatively weak, industrial contradictions were likely to accumulate, and there was no positive news from the ore end, so the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Expected Dominance of the Black Market and the Rise of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In July, both the equity and commodity markets rose, benefiting from the positive expectations of the "anti - involution" policy. Industrial products in China increased collectively, and the black metals were also outstanding, with all futures prices rising significantly. The "anti - involution" was the trigger, and there were industrial and macro - level bases for this upward trend. In the off - season, the industrial contradictions in the black industry accumulated less, some varieties fell near the marginal cost, and the "anti - involution" triggered market expectations of supply - side reform, which jointly ignited the market's bullish sentiment, leading to the bottom - up rebound of black metals [8]. - Ferrosilicon manganese also rose. As of July 30, the main futures price of ferrosilicon manganese closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.40% from the end of last month, and the highest price during the period reached 6,414 yuan/ton, a new high since mid - March. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the increase was relatively lower, and the basis weakened. The prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Tianjin increased by 4.50%, 8.89%, and 8.04% respectively. The tender price of mainstream steel mills also increased, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices was still strong. The regional price difference changed significantly during this rise, with the increases in Ningxia and Tianjin being significantly larger than that in Inner Mongolia due to the increase in speculative demand [10]. - In addition to the strong expectations, the increase in cost also promoted the rise of the ferrosilicon manganese price. During the rise of the black market, coking coal and coke performed strongly, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. The average production costs in the northern and southern regions increased by 201.7 yuan and 301.8 yuan respectively compared with the end of last month [11]. - The industry held an "anti - involution" meeting and reached a preliminary consensus on production reduction. Enterprises actively expanded manganese ore reserves to ensure cost stability after production reduction. Overall, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level in both futures and spot markets [15]. 3.2 Weak Real - World Pattern and Limited Upward Driving Force - The strong expectations were not fully realized, and the optimistic sentiment was revised. The Politburo meeting on July 30 adjusted the relevant statements, and the market's expectations for the anti - involution policy were repeated. The meeting did not directly mention real estate, weakening the market's expectations of policy relaxation in the real estate sector. The recently announced PMI data was lower than expected, with the value in July being 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [16]. - Affected by this, the market sentiment of ferrosilicon manganese weakened, and the operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese was decreasing. The inventory in all major links decreased, especially the exchange warehouse receipts. The inventory of steel mills continued to be at a low level, and the inventory of production enterprises decreased from a high level. As of the week of August 1, the total in - plant inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 164,000 tons, which had decreased for four consecutive weeks. The inventory of steel mills also decreased, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 52,700 tons compared with the end of June. However, once the demand weakened, the supply - demand contradiction might intensify, and the inventory was likely to accumulate again [19]. - Since mid - May, ferrosilicon manganese enterprises have actively resumed production, and the output has increased significantly. In July, the output was 819,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. High - frequency data showed that the production of enterprises was stable, and the supply remained relatively high. As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 187 independent ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was 42.18%, and the daily average output was 27,260 tons. The production in the main producing areas increased, and the output in Yunnan also increased significantly due to the seasonal factor of the wet season. Other regions' production was relatively stable [24][27]. - After the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose, the business situation of enterprises improved significantly, and the supply was expected to remain at a high level. As of July 30, the production costs in the northern and southern regions increased, but the spot price increased more, and the spot profit improved significantly. Ferrosilicon manganese still had an over - supply situation, and there were many new production capacities. In 2024, the total planned production capacity was 7.774 million tons, and in 2025, the planned production capacity was more than 3.5 million tons [34][36]. - Different from the supply situation, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese remained weakly stable. In the traditional off - season of the steel market, the demand for building materials was weak, and the output of rebar decreased, which affected the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. As of the week of August 1, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese was 123,700 tons, a decrease of 1.72% from the end of June. The positive factor was that the tender volume and price of mainstream steel mills increased in July. Although steel mills were profitable and actively producing, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese was unlikely to increase significantly, and attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions [37][38]. - In conclusion, due to the high - level rigid demand and the release of speculative demand, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese decreased, but its supply - demand pattern was weak. With the improvement of profitability and the unchanged over - supply situation, the supply continued to increase while the demand remained weakly stable. If the market returned to the industrial logic, the price of ferrosilicon manganese was likely to be under pressure [46]. 3.3 Changing Supply - Demand Pattern of Manganese Ore and Difficult - to - Sustain Cost Support - During the rise of the black market in July, coking coal and coke were the strongest, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. However, the subsequent upward space was limited. The main factors determining the cost of ferrosilicon manganese were the ore end and electricity price. Recently, the price of manganese ore was mostly stable, and the electricity price did not change much, so the increase in the cost of ferrosilicon manganese was limited [47]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was changing, gradually shifting from a tight supply situation at the beginning of the year to an over - supply situation, as reflected by the continuous increase in port inventory. As of the week of July 25, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 449,500 tons, an increase of 271,000 tons from the end of June. The increase in inventory was mainly due to the increase in supply, with the latest shipment volume reaching 1.1124 million tons, a new high for the single - week shipment volume this year. The increase in supply came from the recovery of the production capacity of South22 in Australia and the high - level shipment from South Africa [51]. - Different from the continuous increase in supply, the demand for manganese ore remained weakly stable. Although the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose and the business situation of production enterprises improved, the raw material procurement was mainly on - demand, and the port clearance volume changed little. As of the week of July 25, the port clearance volume of manganese ore was 516,400 tons, a decrease of 69,600 tons from the end of last month [60]. - In summary, the strength of coke provided support for ferrosilicon manganese, but the main factors determining its cost were the ore end and electricity price. Currently, the electricity price was stable, while the supply of manganese ore was increasing and the demand was weak. The price of manganese ore was likely to be under pressure, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue [63]. 3.4 Conclusion - Benefiting from the positive policy expectations of "anti - involution", the black metals rose collectively since July, and the price of ferrosilicon manganese also increased. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. The supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was weak, with increasing supply and weakly stable demand. The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was also changing, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [64].

徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：震荡 多晶硅：震荡 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 双硅大幅回落，供给侧改革情绪衰退 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询： 本次硅煤价格调涨，主要受成本、供给和需求三方面的共同 促动，使价格呈现 30-110 元/吨的小幅反弹，而对工业硅而言，按全煤工艺 计算，预计成本将增加 140-170 元/吨。 ◆基本面： 工业硅：现货价格方面，华东不通氧 553#硅在 9500-9600 元/吨，较上一交 易日持平。供给方面：6 月份工业硅产量再度抬升至 32.6 万吨，较 5 月提高 2w 吨，新疆地 ...