Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures opened with the main crude oil contract rising over 2%, while glass increased by more than 1%. Conversely, the shipping index for Europe and multi-crystalline silicon fell by more than 1% [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - The main crude oil contract experienced a rise of over 2% [1] - Glass prices increased by more than 1% [1] - The shipping index for Europe and multi-crystalline silicon both saw declines of over 1% [1]

Core Insights - The main focus of the article is the significant price movements in commodity futures, particularly highlighting the rise in crude oil and various other commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Crude oil main contract increased by over 6% [1] - Other commodities such as paraxylene, PTA, methanol, European shipping, liquefied gas, short fibers, and LU fuel oil rose by more than 3% [1] - Fuel oil, BR rubber, Shanghai silver, aluminum oxide, and ethylene glycol saw increases of over 2% [1] - Polycrystalline silicon experienced a decline of 2% [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡季， 以及当前国内甲醇开工仍在高位，供需基本面支撑利好仍显不足，买方对 ...

Core Insights - The domestic commodity futures market opened with significant movements, particularly in crude oil, which saw a rise of over 6% [1] - Other commodities such as short fibers, European shipping lines, and methanol also experienced increases of over 2% [1] Group 1 - Crude oil main contract increased by more than 6% [1] - Short fibers, European shipping lines, and methanol rose by over 2% [1]

商品期货收盘，尿素主力合约涨近4%，20号胶、乙二醇、原木、菜籽油、豆二、豆粕、工业硅、棕榈 油涨超1%。原油跌超2%，苯乙烯、沪金、集运欧线、LU燃油、鸡蛋跌超1%。 ...

商品期货收盘，原油主力合约涨超5%，棕榈油、甲醇、尿素、燃料油、原木涨超3%，焦煤、液化气、 豆油、锰硅、BR橡胶、菜籽油、硅铁涨超2%。集运欧线跌超4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures market is influenced by the weather - driven fluctuations of US soybean prices, positive expectations of US bio - energy policies, and rising import cost expectations, resulting in a continuous staged rebound [5]. - The palm oil market is supported by the active procurement of 6 - 8 - month shipments from India and China. Although the EU market demand decline is a drag, the overall oils and fats sector has entered a rebound channel, and domestic palm oil follows the international palm oil price rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: US soybean futures prices show weather - market fluctuation characteristics and are supported by positive bio - energy policies. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by rising import cost expectations, and with the return of market sentiment, funds are flowing into the soybean market, continuing the staged rebound [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Strong [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Strong [7] - **Core Logic**: International palm oil demand is supported by India and China's procurement, but EU demand decline is a drag. Domestic palm oil inventory is rising with increased purchases. The oils and fats sector is boosted by international oil prices and US bio - fuel policies, and domestic palm oil follows the international price rebound [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2024/25 sugar production season has ended successfully. As of the end of May, China's cumulative sugar production reached 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons; cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons; the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Favorable precipitation in Guangxi and Yunnan benefits sugarcane growth, and the growth of sugar beets in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is also improving. Globally, the 2025/26 sugar supply is expected to be loose, with India likely to increase production and limited impact from Brazil's drought, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1] - Due to US tariffs, cotton imports did not meet expectations. Overall, the light and temperature conditions in China's cotton - growing areas since sowing are suitable for cotton growth. Most cotton in Xinjiang has entered the squaring stage, and cotton in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins is at the fifth true leaf to squaring stage. The development period of most cotton is 3 to 15 days earlier than in previous years. Weather's impact on yield per unit needs continuous attention [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - **External Market Quotes**: On June 14 - 15, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $67.9, also with a 0.00% change [3] - **Spot Prices**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning dropped from 6035.0 to 6020.0, a - 0.25% change; in Kunming, it dropped from 5855.0 to 5835.0, a - 0.34% change. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.07% change, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 14700.0 to 14800.0, a 0.68% change [3] - **Spreads**: All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton futures contracts from June 14 - 15, 2025, remained unchanged, with a 0.00% change [3] Import Price, Profit, and Other Data - **Import Price**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA dropped from 78.05 to 77.8, a - 0.32% change [3] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1638.0 from June 12 - 13, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5700 was 0.0843, and the historical volatility of SR509 was 8.94; the implied volatility of SR509P5700 was 0.0829. The implied volatility of CF509C13400 was 0.097, and the historical volatility of CF509 was 12.67; the implied volatility of CF509P13400 was 0.0959 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From June 12 - 13, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 29116.0 to 28736.0, a - 1.31% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 10769.0 to 10753.0, a - 0.15% change [3]

国内 商品期货多数收涨， 原油、燃料油涨超7%，液化气、 甲醇涨超4%，苯乙烯、沥青、对二甲苯、 PTA涨超3%，瓶片、鸡蛋、短纤涨超2%，塑料、沪金、棕榈油、菜籽油涨超1%，跌幅方面，纯碱、烧 碱跌超2%，工业硅、氧化铝、碳酸锂、玻璃跌超1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of gold and crude oil due to escalating geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for traders to identify opportunities in commodity futures [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions have led to a significant increase in the prices of both gold and crude oil [1] - The article suggests that traders can benefit from understanding order flow, volume-price distribution, and practical case studies related to capital movements in the futures market [1] Group 2: Trading Opportunities - A seasoned futures researcher, Leo, will provide insights into popular commodity trends and teach participants how to capture trading opportunities effectively [1] - The live session aims to equip traders with tools and strategies to navigate the current market conditions [1]