Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 6 月 18 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。美国经济数据趋软以及中东地缘政治紧张局 势令市场感到紧张。美国 5 月零售销售弱于预期，但消费者支出仍然受到 稳健薪资增长的支撑。关注美联储周三政策决定，市场普遍预计美联储将 维持其指标隔夜利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.50%不变，但焦点仍将集中在有 关利率前景的任何指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stable operations, with the RMB exchange rate remaining stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China is implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery [1] - There will be an increase in policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment, along with a gradual expansion of financial market openness [1] - The international balance of payments is projected to remain fundamentally balanced [1] Group 2: Market Participants and Resilience - Market participants are becoming more mature and rational, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging increasing [1] - The share of RMB cross-border receipts under goods trade has risen to approximately 30% [1] - The resilience of the foreign exchange market is expected to continue strengthening [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].

Economic Performance - China's economy has shown strong resilience and vitality in 2023, with key indicators such as the service production index and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5.9% and 5% year-on-year respectively from January to May, indicating an acceleration compared to the first quarter [1] - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4%, marking a 1.3 percentage point increase from April [1] - The service production index also saw a year-on-year growth of 6.2% in May, up by 0.2 percentage points from April [1] Policy Impact - The implementation of supportive consumption policies has significantly boosted consumer spending, with May's retail sales growth exceeding market expectations [2] - The macroeconomic policies have been described as proactive and effective, enhancing consumption vitality and driving production growth [2] - The government has a robust policy toolbox to dynamically adjust macroeconomic policies in response to changing conditions, ensuring continued support for economic stability [2] Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission is focused on improving the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy, which is seen as a catalyst for economic growth and structural optimization [3] - Expectations for further monetary easing and fiscal measures to support consumption, particularly in the context of trade-in policies, are anticipated in the second half of the year [3] - There is a consensus that growth-stabilizing policies will remain strong, with an emphasis on accelerating government bond issuance and ensuring liquidity in the market [3][4]

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：去库持续 关注支撑力度 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - policy adjustments. Geopolitical risks, especially the Israel - Iran conflict, are affecting the energy market, while macro - economic data and policy expectations are influencing various asset classes such as commodities, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][9][15]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, the agricultural sector has mixed performance, the metal market has both rising and falling prices, and the energy market is under pressure from both supply - side disruptions and demand - side forecasts [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - In the domestic futures market, some contracts like rapeseed oil, 20 - number rubber, and coking coal rose over 1%, while low - sulfur fuel oil, styrene, etc. had significant declines [2]. - Internationally, oil prices weakened, with the U.S. oil main contract down 2.06% at $71.48 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.68% at $72.98 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, with COMEX gold down 1.40% and COMEX silver up 0.04% [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 1.41% and LME lead up 0.80% [5]. - International agricultural products also showed mixed trends, with U.S. soybeans up 0.02%, U.S. corn down 2.31%, etc. [6] Important Information Macro - Information - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) increased by 4.6% as of June 16, 2025 [9]. - In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, and 6.3% from January to May [9]. - In May, the housing prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline narrowed [9]. - Israel attacked Iranian military headquarters on June 16, and Iran signaled a willingness to end hostilities and resume nuclear negotiations [10][11]. - The U.S. "Nimitz" aircraft carrier changed its route towards the Middle East [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of June 16, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and there is an expectation of further de - stocking [15]. - Citi analysts expect Brent crude to trade around $70 - 80 per barrel in the near term but maintain a long - term forecast of $60 - 65 per barrel [15]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and OPEC + increased production in May [15]. - Israel's largest refinery operator shut down all facilities due to an attack [16]. Metal Futures - In May 2025, the production and sales of pickups increased year - on - year [20]. - UBS recommends buying on dips and is optimistic about global stocks, defense, and gold, expecting the gold price to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [21]. Black - Series Futures - From June 9 - 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with different trends in Australia and Brazil [23]. - The CML Ghana manganese mine is operating normally, and the manganese ore market is in a price - consolidation state [23]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from June 9 - 15, 2025 [23]. - From January to May, the real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined year - on - year [24]. Agricultural Futures - Recently, the inventory of imported soybeans in domestic oil mills increased, and the crushing volume is expected to rise [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased from June 1 - 15, while the production decreased [29][30]. - In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region increased in the second half of May [31]. - As of June 16, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports decreased [32]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased in the week ending June 12 [32]. - In May 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume and豆油 inventory changed compared to market expectations [33][35]. - In the second week of June 2025, Brazil's soybean and sugar shipments had different trends compared to last year [35]. - As of June 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 100% [36]. - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean's good - rate and sowing rate were lower than expected [36]. Financial Market Commodities - International oil prices weakened, and Western Oil expects prices to fall if the Israel - Iran conflict remains unchanged [3][41]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, and investors are seeking safe - haven assets due to geopolitical risks [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, and their prices are affected by macro - economic expectations and demand [5]. - OPEC maintained its crude oil demand growth forecasts, and OPEC + increased production in May [41]. - Some shipping companies suspended services for Middle - East routes, raising concerns about energy exports [41]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures dropped, affecting the downstream market, and lithium enterprises are focusing on overseas markets [42]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was mostly volatile on Monday, with some bond yields rising and falling, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [43]. - The Israeli - Iranian conflict may have a long - term impact on the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, and U.S. bond yields rose [43][46]. - The Japanese central bank is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate and may slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases [46]. - European bond yields generally fell as traders increased bets on currency easing by the European Central Bank [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose slightly on Monday, while the central parity rate was depreciated [47]. - The RMB exchange - rate index set new lows in different currency baskets in the week ending June 13 [47]. - The South Korean won's trend will continue to be affected by the RMB [47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, and non - U.S. currencies mostly rose [48]. Upcoming Events - There are important economic data releases such as Spain's Q1 labor cost, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, etc. [52]. - There are also significant events including China's central - bank open - market operations, Japan's central - bank monetary - policy press conference, and IEA's monthly oil - market report [54].

Economic Performance Overview - In May, the national economy demonstrated stable growth with industrial added value increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, while the cumulative growth from January to May reached 6.3% [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) amounted to 191,947 billion yuan from January to May, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year growth, with a notable 7.7% increase when excluding real estate development investment [1] Economic Characteristics - The economy exhibited five key characteristics: stable growth supported by policy measures, steady operation with a decreasing unemployment rate, continuous improvement in domestic demand and production supply, accumulation of new growth drivers in high-end manufacturing and digital economy, and resilience in the face of external challenges [2][3] - The overall economic performance in May was characterized by strong resilience and vitality, with macro policies working in coordination to support stability [3] Price and Real Estate Market - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline year-on-year, influenced by international factors and falling food prices, while the core CPI's growth rate steadily expanded [4] - The real estate market remained stable, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities and a continuous reduction in inventory [4] Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumption growth in May exceeded expectations, driven by policies such as trade-in programs and national subsidies, with retail sales reaching their highest level of the year [6] - Key categories such as home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant sales increases, indicating the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies [6] Future Outlook - The economic fundamentals remain strong, with expectations for continued monetary easing and fiscal support for consumption and real estate markets [5][6] - The focus will be on enhancing domestic demand and structural reforms to ensure stable economic growth amid external uncertainties [3]

Economic Overview - In May, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2% and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% [1][2] - The overall economic operation is stable, with some indicators continuing to improve, showcasing strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1][5] Economic Characteristics - The industrial production saw a rapid increase due to supportive policies, with the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry growing by 9%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production [2] - Employment remained stable, with the urban unemployment rate at 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline, indicating stable market supply and demand [2] New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.6%, and digital product manufacturing grew by 9.1%, both outpacing overall industrial growth [4] - Production of new energy vehicles and solar batteries surged by 31.7% and 27.8%, respectively, indicating robust growth in these sectors [4] Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macro policies has effectively supported economic stability, with significant contributions to demand expansion and production growth [6] - Retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment saw substantial year-on-year growth, driven by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [6] - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth [6] Economic Trends - Despite external challenges, China's economic foundation remains strong, with stable growth momentum and a commitment to high-quality development [8][9] - The first five months of 2023 saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in high-tech manufacturing added value, with industrial robot production up by 32% [8] - The government has a robust policy toolkit to ensure economic stability and can dynamically adjust measures in response to changing conditions [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on industrial growth, consumer spending, and investment trends for 2025. [1][2][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: In May 2025, industrial added value exceeded expectations with a month-on-month growth rate higher than previous years, indicating resilience in the production sector. The probability of GDP growth exceeding 5% in the first half of the year is high. [1][2] - **Investment Trends**: Real estate investment continues to decline, with a drop of 10.7% in May 2025. However, manufacturing and infrastructure investments show growth, with manufacturing up 8.5% and infrastructure up 10.4%. Adjustments in local government debt limits are expected to support major project construction in the second half of the year. [5][8] - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth reached 6.4% year-on-year in May 2025, the first time exceeding 6% since last year. The "trade-in" policy and promotional events significantly boosted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication equipment. [6][9] - **Employment Stability**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remains stable at 5%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a solid overall employment situation that supports economic development. [7][8] - **Economic Outlook**: The economic growth in the second half of 2025 is expected to be weaker than the first half, but fluctuations are anticipated to be minor. The foundation laid in the first half, along with increased local budgets and expanded major project space, supports the likelihood of achieving annual targets. [8][11] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Policies**: The "trade-in" policy has led to significant sales, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan from January to May 2025, supported by approximately 130 billion yuan in fiscal funding. However, some regions have adjusted or paused the policy due to rapid fund usage. [4][10] - **Trade Dynamics**: Exports showed a mixed performance, with a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. attributed to extreme tariff impacts. Despite this, the reliance of the U.S. on Chinese imports remains high, suggesting a potential for recovery in trade. [15][16] - **Financial Data**: The growth rate of social financing has narrowed, with weak credit performance. Government bond issuance has become a key factor in supporting the economy, and the financial system's support for the real economy has strengthened. [19][20] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: There is a call for maintaining macroeconomic policy stability while promoting domestic demand to foster long-term growth. The necessity of existing policies is emphasized, even with some economic data exceeding expectations. [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future expectations for the industry.