12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 会议首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述，还首次提出将"存量政策和增量政 策"纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。 在宏观政策相关的诸多新表述背后，多位受访者认为，明年的政策制定可能不会过度关注短期内的刺激 效果，更多着眼于"十五五"整体经济的长远发展规划，既关注新增政策的出台，也重视已有政策的落实 落细，体现对宏观政策协同以及落地效果的重视。 招联首席研究员董希淼也指出，"灵活"表明将根据内外部环境变化和经济发展需要，适时运用货币政策 工具，该出手时就出手；"高效"表明运用降准降息等工具时，要更多考虑政策有效性和针对性，既要加 大力度支持经济增长，也要加强防范资金空转、地方债务等风险。同时，要进一步畅通货币政策传导， 推动金融"活水"以更高效率滴灌实体经济和普通大众。 货币政策空间进一步加大 节奏将呈现小幅、灵活的特点 每年中央经济工作会议对于降息降准等工具运用的表述，都是市场关注的焦点。此次会议明确，明年货 币政策将继续适度宽松，但首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述。 在业内看来，此次会议通过"灵活高效"的四字表述，释放出了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a more proactive macro policy to enhance economic stability and growth, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, while addressing risks in key areas to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Challenges - The economic growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Despite a resilient export growth of 6.2% year-on-year from January to November, domestic demand remains weak, with retail sales growing only 4.3% and fixed asset investment declining by 1.7% during the same period [3][4]. - The government aims to achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year, despite facing downward pressure in the fourth quarter [4][6]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The conference outlines eight key tasks for 2026, including prioritizing domestic demand and fostering innovation-driven growth [1][5]. - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated, with the deficit rate expected to rise from 3% in 2024 to 4% in 2025, alongside increased local special bonds and long-term special bonds [8][10]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, with potential interest rate cuts expected in early 2026 [9][11]. Group 3: Investment and Consumption - The government plans to enhance investment by increasing central budget investments and optimizing the use of local government special bonds, with a focus on revitalizing private investment [13][15]. - The "Two New" policies, aimed at large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades, will continue to be implemented, with significant funds allocated to support these initiatives [13][15]. - Despite high growth rates in certain consumer goods, overall consumption growth remains low, necessitating further measures to unlock consumer potential [14]. Group 4: Risk Management and Structural Reforms - The conference stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and managing local government debt risks, with specific measures to encourage the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects [21][22]. - Efforts to clear overdue payments to enterprises are highlighted as a means to improve cash flow and facilitate smoother financial operations [18][22]. - Structural reforms will focus on enhancing the quality of competition and addressing issues related to "involution" in various industries [17][20].

6 证券研究报告 （黑体字为 2025 年重点强调与 2024 年的不一致之处） 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 证书编号：S1080525070001 2025 年 12 月 11 日中央经济工作会议。 点评： 要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总 量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机 关过紧日子。 要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货 币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕， 畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微 分析师：刘笑瑜 电话：0755-23838239 一是对于问题与挑战：外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点 领域风险隐患较多。2024 年不同点在于"国内需求不足，部分企业经营困难， 群众就业增收面临压力。" 二是指导原则: 坚持稳中求进工作总基调，与 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][4] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,970 yuan/ton and closed at 115,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 106,815 (-13,204) lots, and the open interest was 106,302 (+3,719) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high, then moving low, and closing weakly, in an overall weakly oscillating pattern, affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - economics [1] Fundamental - The current pattern of nickel supply surplus remains unchanged. Although refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the production of primary nickel in December increased month - on - month, and the reduction in refined nickel production in November was lower than expected, having a limited marginal impact on the market supply - demand balance sheet [1] Macro - The Fed cut interest rates in December, but subsequent statements were hawkish, and the previous positive factors have basically been reflected in the market [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market was calm, with prices stable. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and their price - holding mentality recovered. As downstream ferronickel prices rebounded and domestic factories needed to stock up before the Spring Festival, the mentality of pressing down prices for nickel ore purchases may ease. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market showed no obvious improvement, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 5,100 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,939 (-296) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,852 (-240) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,550 yuan/ton and closed at 12,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,489 (+3,558) lots, and the open interest was 103,523 (-4,171) lots. After the contract changed to 2602, it continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a narrow - range weakly oscillating pattern and closing slightly lower. Technically, the price closed below the 5 - day moving average, remaining in a short - term weak pattern, but there was strong support around 12,400 yuan/ton [3] Spot - Downstream buyers remained cautious, and trading did not improve. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 195 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 888.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2025, emphasizing a moderate policy tone, a focus on internal demand, and long-term structural improvements while addressing external risks [3][4][9]. Group 1: Policy Tone and Direction - The policy tone is generally moderate, shifting from "seeking progress while maintaining stability" to "maintaining stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency" [4][10]. - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary levels of deficit, debt, and expenditure, with a projected deficit rate around 4% [4][11]. - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, with an emphasis on promoting reasonable price recovery [11][12]. Group 2: Internal Demand and Investment - The focus is on internal demand, with clear strategies to stabilize investment and enhance service consumption [4][11]. - Investment is expected to stop declining, with new policy financial tools being utilized to support this [4][11]. - Service consumption will be promoted through reforms aimed at increasing supply to stimulate demand [11][12]. Group 3: Risk Management and Real Estate - The emphasis on risk prevention has decreased, with ongoing policies for real estate and debt management [5][12]. - Reforms in the housing provident fund system are anticipated, including potential reductions in loan rates and adjustments in withdrawal ratios [5][12]. - The fiscal environment for 2026 is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a focus on managing debt and social spending [5][12]. Group 4: Social Stability and Employment - Maintaining social stability remains a priority, with measures in healthcare, education, and employment being highlighted [6][13]. - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain stable, balancing growth with social needs [6][13]. - The article notes the importance of transitioning from traditional labor-intensive industries to ensure employment stability [6][13]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Reforms - The conference highlighted the need for long-term structural reforms to address "involution" in competition, with a focus on establishing a unified national market [5][12]. - Measures to improve the supply side are expected to contribute to a moderate recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [5][12]. - The commitment to a dual carbon strategy includes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and improving disaster prevention infrastructure [6][13].

Economic Assessment - The meeting emphasized the deepening impact of external environmental changes and the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand domestically[6] - The overall policy strength for next year is expected to be no lower than this year[2] - However, a strong stimulus is not anticipated despite the policy strength being maintained[3] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal policy is projected to remain consistent with this year, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to stay at 4%[8] - General government debt is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.3 trillion to a range of 5.9-6 trillion[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a similar stance as this year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 10 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[11] - The focus will remain on maintaining reasonable liquidity while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[11] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand continues to be the top priority, with a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption[12] - Infrastructure investment is expected to see a peak, contributing to overall investment stabilization[13] Real Estate Policy Changes - New measures in real estate policy include encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[14] - The urbanization rate has slowed, with only a 0.84 percentage point increase expected in 2024, indicating a potential decline in real housing demand[14] Stock Market Projections - A slow bull market is anticipated for A-shares in 2026, with limited support for a rapid bull market[20] - The market outlook is influenced by policy, liquidity, and fundamental factors, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors driving performance[20] Risk Factors - Key risks include sudden geopolitical tensions abroad and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[22]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2025 and sets the direction for 2026, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand in the short term and strengthening internal capabilities in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy maintains a "more proactive and effective" tone, focusing on internal conditions and medium to long-term issues, with a shift in external environment assessment from "adverse" in 2024 to neutral in 2025 [1] - It is expected that the macroeconomic policy will continue the positive tone established in 2025 into 2026 [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The emphasis is on domestic demand, with clear strategies for investment and service consumption, aiming to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," while maintaining a stable narrow deficit ratio [1] - The use of new policy financial tools will continue to support investment, and reforms will be implemented to promote service consumption, stimulating demand through supply [1] Group 3: Social Stability - Ensuring stable livelihoods remains a priority, with measures in healthcare, education, employment, and medical care, indicating a focus on both the quantity and quality of supply to stabilize livelihoods [1] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable, balancing growth stability and expectations [1] Group 4: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with the deficit ratio expected to remain stable in 2026 [2] - There will be a focus on standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies, aiming to address local protectionism and "involution" competition [2] Group 5: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to adopt an "appropriately loose" stance, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The shift from "timely" to "flexible and efficient" indicates a greater focus on the effectiveness of monetary policy, with an emphasis on both short-term and long-term adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues [2]

货币政策将总量与结构并重。周君芝表示，会议提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政 策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"，预计2026年至少降准降息 一次。"引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"的表述，预示更多结构性 工具将出台。 财政政策将延续扩张态势，化债与改革同步推进。周君芝认为，会议强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务 总规模和支出总量""重视解决地方财政困难"，预计2026年赤字率维持4%，中长期特别国债至少1.5万亿 元，专项债或扩至5万亿元。因今年近1.4万亿元专项债用于化债导致项目资金受限，明年规模提升将兼 顾化债与投资需求。同时，"健全地方税体系"指向税制改革落地，消费税征收环节后移、共享税比例优 化值得期待。 中证报中证网讯（记者 谭丁豪）2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。中信建投证 券宏观经济首席分析师周君芝表示，积极政策取向未变，有利于经济修复和资产价格。2024年会议将财 政政策从"积极"调整为"更加积极"，货币政策从"稳健"改为"适度宽松"。今年定调与去年一致，明确"实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策"， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况[4] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息[5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝锭 -宏观上美联储预测不如部分投资者预期鹰派，美元下跌基本金属反弹，短期宏观情绪向好[3] -国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，北方铝土矿复产供矿不稳定，库存量低，但绝对库存高位，氧化铝价格走低，铝土矿价格预计仍有下跌空间[4] -国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比降0.1%至61.8%，延续淡季偏弱态势，各细分板块有不同表现，再生铝下滑显著[4] -12月11日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存较周一跌1.1万吨，较上周四跌1.2万吨[4] -宏观降息利好，供需格局边际改善支撑价格，国内淡季库存走势反复，价格短期高位震荡，高价抑制消费，关注宏观指引[5]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 12 月 11 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘震荡运行后一路走低，收跌 1.10%，全 市超 4000 支个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.86%、0.39%、1.02%、1.30%，中小盘股表现更优。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.76%、0.37%、0.67%、0.91%，表现强于现货（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源：Wind，建信 ...