Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B showed seasonal decline, indicating stable economic growth momentum[1] - Consumer sector performance improved, while real estate remained stable and investment showed a decline[1] - Index B standardized decreased by 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices increased, with July CPI expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline expected to reach -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 18, 2025, is 2.24%, compared to the current average of 1.65%[19] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%[3] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 6.40%[3] - Export growth for the month is recorded at 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the passing of renowned economist Feng Qiaobin, who made significant contributions to macroeconomics, finance, and taxation in China [1]. Group 1: Personal Background - Feng Qiaobin was a professor and PhD in economics, serving in various academic institutions and holding a prominent position at the Development Research Center of the State Council [1]. - She was awarded the third Huang Da-Mundell Economics Prize, recognizing her contributions to the field [1]. Group 2: Research Contributions - Feng Qiaobin authored six books, including titles such as "National Governance and Tax Reform" and "Emergency Finance: Research on Funding Security Systems Based on Natural Disasters" [1]. - She published over 300 papers and articles in major newspapers and academic journals, focusing on public goods theory, emergency finance, supply-side structural reform, and tax reduction [1]. - Feng led or participated in numerous national and provincial-level research projects, showcasing her extensive involvement in economic research [1].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 【粕类日报】短期扰动有限 盘面震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2993 | - 4 | 天津 | -70 | -90 | 2 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2704 | 0 | | -160 | -160 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2954 | 7 | | -150 | -170 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -140 | -160 | 2 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2316 | 3 | 南通 | -201 | ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China CPI rose 0.1% YoY in June, PPI dropped 3.6% YoY in June. Futures Pri ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a previous decline of -0.1%, while the PPI fell by 3.6%, worse than the expected -3.2% [3][8][12] - Core CPI has remained above seasonal levels for three consecutive months, indicating a slight recovery in consumer prices [9][11] - The PPI is expected to have reached its bottom, with projections indicating a potential recovery in the latter half of 2025 [13] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - The BOPET film industry has faced profitability challenges since 2022, leading to a slowdown in planned capacity expansion, but industry self-discipline is expected to improve profitability [4][18] - From 2014 to 2024, domestic BOPET capacity grew from 2.47 million tons to 6.95 million tons, with a CAGR of 10.9%, but consumption growth has not kept pace, leading to an oversupply of low-end products [16][17] - Recommended stocks in the BOPET sector include Dongcai Technology, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, with beneficiaries including Shuangxing New Materials and Yuxing Co [18] Group 3: Low Altitude Economy Insights - The establishment of a leadership group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China aims to enhance the organization and coordination of low-altitude economy initiatives [20][21] - Local governments are implementing policies to support low-altitude operations, including subsidies for operational enterprises [20][21] - Recommended stocks in the low-altitude economy sector include Wolong Electric Drive and Green Energy Huichong, with beneficiaries across manufacturing, infrastructure, and operations [20][22] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Industry Insights - The solid-state battery sector is transitioning from experimental stages to mass production, with several companies making significant advancements in technology and production capabilities [25][27] - Recommended stocks in the solid-state battery sector include CATL, with beneficiaries across various components such as conductive agents and electrolyte membranes [25][27] - The solid-state battery index showed a decline of 0.8% recently, but the sector has seen a cumulative increase of 18.2% in 2025 [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 8th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rising by 7% [2][10][13] - The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), poly - silicon, and silicon metal, while the top three decliners were egg, ethenylbenzene, and rapeseed meal [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On July 8th, equity index futures increased, CGB futures decreased. Among commodity futures, there were more gainers. SCFIS(Europe) and poly - silicon rose 7%. The top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe) (7.2% increase, 1.6% month - on - month open interest increase), poly - silicon (7.0% increase, 5.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and silicon metal (2.8% increase, 0.6% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were egg (1.3% decrease, 4.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), ethenylbenzene (1.1% decrease, 0.9% month - on - month open interest decrease), and rapeseed meal (0.9% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][13] 3.1.2 Daily Rise 3.1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On July 8th, silicon metal rose 2.8% to 8215 yuan/ton. The fundamental surplus pattern remained unchanged, and the price rebound was driven by policy expectations. Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment was strong, but adjustment risks due to sentiment cooling should be guarded against. Northwest factories' sudden production cuts strengthened price support. If the production - cut scope expanded, July's supply - demand situation might improve marginally; otherwise, the oversupply pressure would be hard to ease. In the southwest, the resumption of production was slower than in previous years, but some factories had restarted. As prices rose, enterprises' willingness to resume production and hedge increased, which might exacerbate supply - side pressure. Demand was weak, and inventory might accumulate again [17][18][20] 3.1.2.2 Aluminium Oxide - On July 8th, aluminium oxide rose 2.8% to 3110 yuan/ton. There was no short - to - medium - term shortage of bauxite, and operating capacity and inventory were gradually recovering. Market sentiment was volatile, with more spot inquiries but a strong wait - and - see atmosphere in transactions. Warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and there were concerns in the futures market. The long - term logic focused on bauxite prices. Short - term sentiment was volatile, so it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. If market sentiment faded in the medium - to - long term, one could cautiously short far - month contracts [21][23] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Ethenylbenzene - On July 8th, ethenylbenzene fell 1.1% to 7276 yuan/ton. In a period without clear driving factors, it fluctuated in a narrow range. Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, crude oil prices fell, and market bullish sentiment weakened. The spot supply - demand weakened, and port inventories increased, but the end - of - month short - squeeze sentiment was strong. Fundamentally, supply returned, demand weakened, and the market was moving towards inventory accumulation. The fundamentals of pure benzene improved marginally. Two points should be noted: the low inventory level of the ethenylbenzene industry chain and the better fundamentals of pure benzene from July to August [26][27][29] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 7th local time that she expected to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues between China and the U.S., and the two sides would discuss expanding cooperation [34] - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang [34] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect, including expanding the scope of participating institutions in Southbound Trading Connect and optimizing the offshore RMB bond repo business [35] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has been cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the trading scale of RMB - denominated Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise [35]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production is slowing down, with some chemical and automotive sectors experiencing a decline in operating rates[2] - Construction activity has decreased, with cement dispatch rates and oil asphalt plant operating rates falling to historical lows[2] - Building demand is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and construction materials lower than historical levels[3] Prices - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices, while copper and aluminum prices continue to rise[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a rebound[4] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have seen an expanded year-on-year decline, with a drop of 19% compared to 2023 and 17% compared to 2024[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes have weakened, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of 9%, 19%, and a slight increase of 5% respectively compared to 2024[5] Exports - June exports are expected to show a year-on-year increase of around 2%, with early July exports projected to rise by approximately 3%[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of July 4[5] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 14,808 billion yuan in monetary policy[5]

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：低估值叠加政策驱动，钢价小幅上涨 2、铁矿石观点：行业预期改善，原料估值提升 3、煤焦：焦炭一轮提涨预期，宽幅震荡 4、铁合金观点：宏观与基本面博弈，合金价格跟随板块震荡 Special report on Guot ...

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) serves as a critical indicator of economic performance, with China's PMI showing signs of recovery in June 2025, indicating a potential economic rebound despite ongoing external pressures [1][2][9]. Group 1: PMI Overview - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5]. - A PMI above 50% indicates economic expansion, while below 50% indicates contraction. The new orders index rose to 50.2%, entering expansion territory, which suggests a recovery in market demand [2][9]. - The PMI is a leading indicator that reflects economic trends 1-3 months in advance, making it a vital tool for monitoring economic dynamics [2][5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 51.2%, indicating robust performance, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively, indicating challenges in these segments [6][9]. - Key components of the manufacturing PMI, including production index (51.0%) and new orders index (50.2%), were above the critical point, signaling increased production activity and improved market demand [6][9]. - The raw material inventory index was at 48.0%, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels, which may affect future production capabilities [6][9]. Group 3: Economic Policy Impact - The increase in new orders and overall PMI suggests that China's economic stimulus policies are beginning to take effect, helping to mitigate the impact of external trade pressures [9]. - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and facilitate a sustained economic recovery [9].

Group 1 - The primary concern of the current macroeconomic environment is the persistently low price levels [1] - The low price levels are attributed to structural issues on the demand side, such as the decline in real estate investment, and more significantly, complex supply-side shocks [1] - China is experiencing a "good" supply shock driven by technological advancements and economies of scale, leading to a nearly 90% increase in overall labor productivity over the past decade [1] Group 2 - The costs of new production modes, represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells, have significantly decreased [1] - This decrease in costs reflects the potential for new production models in the industry [1]