Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, livestock group is "sideways"; for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector, it's "sideways" for natural rubber and synthetic rubber, with synthetic rubber showing a "sideways with a slight upward bias" [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, externally, the ICE raw sugar price increase has been limited by the short - term trading range due to a lack of information and long - term supply pressure. Domestically, although the Zhengzhou sugar price is slightly stronger with the support of the overall commodity market and the start of the Spring Festival stocking, the increasing supply from Guangxi may drag down the price. The short - term upward trend may lack continuous momentum [1] - For rubber, natural rubber is supported by rising overseas raw material prices and positive market sentiment despite increasing domestic inventories. The short - term upward trend has resistance. Synthetic rubber is supported by rising raw material prices, but high - price transactions are difficult due to downstream price - pressing. The upward trend also has challenges [4] Group 3: Summary by Category Sugar - **Market Review**: On January 8, SR605 closed at 5281 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and its night - session closed at 5286 yuan/ton; SR609 closed at 5293 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.34%, and its night - session closed at 5299 yuan/ton [1] - **Important News**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar increased by 17 yuan/ton to 5314 yuan/ton. As of January 5, 2026, in India's Maharashtra state, 195 sugar mills were in operation, 4 less than the same period last season, but the sugar output reached 532.27 tons. Bihar state plans to expand sugarcane planting. In Yunnan, the sugar output as of the end of December 2025/26 season was 39.23 tons, an increase of 6.54 tons year - on - year. In Guangxi, 73 sugar mills were in operation as of December 31, 2025/26 season, 1 less than the same period last year, and the sugar output decreased by 80.95 tons year - on - year [1] - **Market Logic**: Externally, the raw sugar market is calm, and the price is in a sideways range. Domestically, the overall commodity market supports the Zhengzhou sugar price, but the increasing supply from Guangxi may limit the upward movement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions in SR605 and observe the performance in the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those not yet in the market should wait for short - selling opportunities. Consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Rubber - **Market Review**: On January 8, RU2605 closed at 16180 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81%; NR2602 closed at 13150 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.08%; BR2602 closed at 12155 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.75% [4] - **Important News**: The raw material prices in Thailand increased slightly. As of January 4, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. The prices of some rubber products, such as whole - latex and 20 - grade Thai standard rubber, also increased. The price of butadiene rose, and the prices of synthetic rubbers such as cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, but there is resistance in the short - term upward trend. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, but high - price transactions are difficult [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The pressure ranges for RU, NR, and BR are 16400 - 16500, 13300 - 13400, and 12200 - 12400 respectively. Consider partial profit - taking for previous long positions, and stop - profit and exit when facing strong pressure or a change in market sentiment. Those not yet in the market are recommended to wait and see [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The global sugar market remains in a state of oversupply, with India and Thailand experiencing a sugar surplus. In the domestic market, there are concerns about a decline in sugar production in Guangxi, leading to a slight recovery in domestic sugar prices. The SR2605 contract's support level is around 5000 - 5030, and the pressure level is around 5300 - 5330 [2]. - **Pulp**: Terminal users have accepted the price increases led by suppliers, causing both softwood and hardwood pulp prices to rise. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is increasing, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, the global market for bleached softwood kraft pulp is not tight, and the inventory of domestic and European ports is relatively high. The profitability of paper mills is low, and their ability to absorb high - priced pulp may be limited. In the short term, prices will operate in a high - range [2]. - **Double - offset Paper**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the spot market for double - offset paper remained stable. The paper mill's inventory is at a high level, and the improvement in demand alone is not enough to significantly change the supply - demand situation. The futures price may follow the basis, and the upward space may be limited [6]. - **Cotton**: The external market has limited drivers, and the futures price is in the process of bottom - building. In the domestic market, there is an expectation of tight supply at the end of the year, a potential reduction in Xinjiang's cotton production, and support from related substitutes. The 05 contract is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term [9]. - **Apples**: The apple 2605 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, an unsatisfactory high - quality fruit rate, and rising acquisition prices. However, it also faces the contradiction between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, and is expected to remain in a high - range [10]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market has shifted from a state of high premium to a state of discount relative to the spot market, and the contradiction between futures and spot prices has been alleviated. The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the expectation of a production reduction has decreased [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For the apple 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200. For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For the sugar 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold short - term long positions lightly, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400. For the pulp 2605 contract, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach within the range, with a support range of 5300 - 5400 and a pressure range of 5600 - 5800. For the double - offset paper 2605 contract, it is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 3900 - 4000 and a pressure range of 4200 - 4300. For the cotton 2605 contract, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons. The prices in the Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remained stable, and the shipment in the sales areas was stable [21][22][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of the week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is gradually increasing. The overall sales in the sales areas are stable [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, Indian sugar mills had crushed 133.921 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The sugar production reached 11.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase. In Thailand, from the 2025/26 sugar - making season to December 27, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%. In China, as of January 7, 2026, 41 sugar mills in Yunnan had started crushing, 3 more than the same period last year. All 19 sugar mills in Guangdong had started crushing [27][28]. - **Pulp Market**: In December, the global pulp shipment volume continued to decline year - on - year and month - on - month, and the shipment volume to China decreased more than the global average. The supply pressure of pulp is gradually alleviating. Suzano, APRIL, and Eldorado have raised the prices of BHK pulp [31]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the overall inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [32]. - **Cotton Market**: In November 2025, Turkey imported 57,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 32.2% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. As of January 3, 2026, the cotton planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 31.2% completed. As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6675 million tons, accounting for 85.8% of the annual estimated output [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583, a daily decrease of 31 or 0.32%. The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract was 9150, a daily increase of 175 or 1.95%. The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5281, a daily increase of 22 or 0.42%. The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5596, a daily decrease of 16 or 0.29%. The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15035, a daily increase of 180 or 1.21% [34]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. The spot price of sugar was 5350 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5580 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 950 yuan. The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 500 yuan. The spot price of cotton was 15784 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1154 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - The 5 - 10 spread of apples is 1109, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 1487. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes is 90, with a month - on - month increase of 25 and a year - on - year decrease of 630. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 1 - 5 spread of sugar is 26, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 48. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton is - 190, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [58]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 2263, a month - on - month increase of 158 and a year - on - year decrease of 258. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 6005, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 135506, a month - on - month increase of 4452 and a year - on - year decrease of 203230. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 7049, a month - on - month increase of 225 and a year - on - year increase of 2971 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant figures are mentioned [89].

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 36 元至 2244 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | 价格上涨 5 元至 2273 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 29083 手至 45.03 万手，空 | | | | | 头持仓增加 33834 手至 57.5 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 153.72 万吨，较上一期数据增加 4.08 吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.72 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.64 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 44. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short-term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is advisable to wait and see [1][8][10] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Copper, hold long positions cautiously; aluminum, strengthen observation; nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; tin, range trading; gold, range trading; silver, range trading; lithium carbonate, range-bound [1][11][15][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, range trading; caustic soda, wait and see temporarily; soda ash, wait and see temporarily; styrene, range trading; rubber, range trading; urea, range trading; methanol, range trading; polyolefins, weak and volatile [1][19][21][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, expected to be slightly bullish; apples, slightly bullish; jujubes, expected to rebound from the bottom [1][27][29][30] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs, short on rallies for near-term contracts, cautiously bullish for far-term contracts; eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the current 02 contract; corn, short-term cautious about chasing highs, grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal, treat near-term contracts strongly on dips, far-term contracts weakly; oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, cautious about chasing rallies [1][31][34][36][38][39] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][11] - For most varieties, short-term market fluctuations are relatively large, and medium- to long-term trends need to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and policy orientation [11][15][32] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips. Affected by geopolitical events and economic data at home and abroad, there are potential callback risks in the short term, but the market is expected to develop further in the long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. The current low static yield of bonds and high - intensity long - term bond supply make it difficult for institutions to significantly increase their bond allocations [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short-term trading. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support, with clear short - selling logic and some bullish factors [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Driven by cost and affected by policies and supply - demand relationships, short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Wait and see. The supply side has positive expectations, but the demand side is weak. There are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash, and the price is expected to be short - term bullish [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price has entered a high - volatility stage in the short term, but there is still upward space in the long term due to supply shortages [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is driven by expectations and capital, but there is great fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is limited [13] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, but there is a short - term rebound [15] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile [15] - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy, the medium - term price center moves up [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The supply and demand are weak in reality, but the valuation is low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see temporarily. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [21] - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see temporarily. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the disk is limited [27] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term, and pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, but the downstream buying is weak, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is bullish due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weak and volatile. The demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited, but there is a short - term rebound expectation [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Slightly bullish. Affected by factors such as global cotton supply and demand and policy expectations, the price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish [29] - **Apples**: Slightly bullish. The market price is relatively stable, and different regions have different trading situations [29] - **Jujubes**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere varies in different regions [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the long - term supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is not optimistic before the Spring Festival [32] - **Eggs**: Range trading. The short - term price has a seasonal increase expectation, but the supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [34][35] - **Corn**: Weak and volatile. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The short - term domestic and foreign market conditions are complex, and different strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [38][39] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. The short - term trends of the three major oils are expected to diverge, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing rallies for soybean and palm oils, and gradually liquidate long positions for rapeseed oil [39][44][45]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，贸易商商谈为主，少量聚酯工厂有补货，现货基差偏强。个别主 流供应商出货。本周在05贴水45附近商谈成交，月中在05贴水40附近成交，价格商谈区间在5020~5160，1月底在主流05贴水40 有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-41。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期聚酯负荷运行在90.8%附近，但是产业链传导不畅，终端负荷仍有局部下降，需求端支撑力度一般。乙二醇近月 存在季节性累库压力，1-2月累库幅度在55-60万吨附近，市场整体持货意向偏弱。近端受 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （孔海兰，从业资格号：F3032578；交易咨询资格号：Z0013544） 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周三，CBOT大豆创一周新高，受助于需求 消息支撑。美国农业部周二证实，出口商向中国出口销售 33.6万吨大豆。巴西谷物出口商组织预计巴西2026年向中国销售7700万吨，比2025年减少约1000万吨。 预计总出口1.12亿吨，高于25年的1.09亿吨。国内方面，两粕震荡走高，豆粕和菜粕涨幅均超过1%，持 仓量增加。商品市场回暖，大豆进口成本走高，均提振蛋白粕价格。豆粕现货成交增加，其中2-4月基 差合同为主。油厂和贸易商挺价，下游适当减量远期合同。本周油厂开机率恢复，豆粕库存预计将再次 攀升。豆粕上下空间均有限，区间震荡思路不变。等待下周USDA供需报告指引。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周三，BMD棕榈油上涨，跟随周边市场走强。此外，马币贬值同样支撑价格。印尼棕榈油现货价格上 涨，马棕油近月现货下跌远月现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weak" [3] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips' main contract declined on Wednesday night, with the long - position and short - position both increasing. The supply of bottle chips increased slightly this week, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. Short - term bottle chip prices will fluctuate with raw materials, and the reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5980 - 6200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [3] Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the main price of bottle chips dropped 34 yuan to 6022 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 6035 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6090 yuan/ton (+0). Long - position holdings increased by 1764 lots to 60,300 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 1760 lots to 62,500 lots [3] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, this week's domestic polyester bottle chip output was 335,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester bottle chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31; the production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5623 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton; the weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [3] - In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [3] - In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market believes that Venezuela's production will increase in the long - term, causing international oil prices to decline. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract dropped 1.14 dollars/barrel to 55.99 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.74 dollars/barrel to 59.96 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22%; the China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract dropped 2.5 to 424.8 yuan/ton, and dropped 9.3 to 415.5 yuan/ton in night trading [3] - According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, which has led to speculation about possible special operations in the region [3] Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuela's oil facilities were not affected. After the US "takes over", the medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. Short - term bottle chip prices will fluctuate with raw materials [3] Trading Strategy - Reduce long positions on rallies [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The global futures market is experiencing increased volatility, leading to a growing adoption of futures trading as a risk management tool by enterprises and investors [1] - By 2025, the average daily trading volume in the global futures market is expected to exceed 50 million contracts, with energy futures accounting for 38%, agricultural futures 22%, metal futures 15%, and financial futures 25% [1] - The core value of futures trading lies in price discovery and risk hedging through standardized contracts, with significant applications in various sectors such as cotton, coal, and crude oil [3] Group 2: Technical Requirements - Futures trading demands high system stability, response speed, and data analysis capabilities, particularly for high-frequency trading and arbitrage [4] - A significant portion (78%) of trading losses due to technical failures in 2025 is attributed to system delays or data errors, highlighting the importance of selecting a technologically robust futures company [4] Group 3: Company Profile - Dongwu Futures Co., Ltd. - Dongwu Futures Co., Ltd. is recognized for its comprehensive service capabilities and stable operational strategies, with a registered capital of 1.0318 billion yuan and total assets of 19.016 billion yuan as of August 2025 [5] - The company offers a full range of futures trading services, including cotton, coal, and crude oil futures, with a market share of 15% in cotton futures and a customer coverage rate of 42% in coal futures by 2025 [6] Group 4: Technical Advantages and Risk Control - Dongwu Futures has invested heavily in an intelligent trading platform with microsecond-level response speed, processing over 5 million orders daily [8] - The company has established a comprehensive risk control system, achieving a risk event occurrence rate of only 0.03% in 2025, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.15% [8] Group 5: Industry Recognition and Customer Satisfaction - Dongwu Futures has received multiple accolades, including being rated as an A-class company for five consecutive years and recognized as an "Excellent Member" by major exchanges [9] - The company serves a diverse client base, with over 100,000 individual clients and more than 5,000 institutional clients, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 95% [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product R & D report focusing on cotton and cotton yarn, dated January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 15,200, up 245; CF05 at 15,035, up 180; CF09 at 15,225, up 185; CY01 at 20,250 (unchanged); CY05 at 20,880 (unchanged); CY09 at 20,695 (unchanged) [2] - CF01 trading volume was 10,135 hands, an increase of 672; CF05 was 618,089 hands, an increase of 223,930; CF09 was 73,247 hands, an increase of 40,596; CY01 was 32 hands (unchanged); CY05 was 61 hands (unchanged); CY09 was 1 hand (unchanged) [2] - CF01 open interest was 68,415, a decrease of 8,049; CF05 was 925,465, an increase of 9,611; CF09 was 95,727, an increase of 17,291; CY01 was 378 (unchanged); CY05 was 171 (unchanged); CY09 was 14 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,784 yuan/ton, up 169; Cot A was 74.70 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 21,059 yuan, up 101; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 (unchanged); polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,080 (unchanged); viscose staple fiber was 12,730 yuan (unchanged); viscose yarn R30S was 17,320 (unchanged) [2] Spread Market - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 165, up 65; 5 - 9 spread was - 190, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was 25, down 60. Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 630 (unchanged); 5 - 9 spread was 185 (unchanged); 9 - 1 spread was 445 (unchanged) [2] - Cross - product spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 5,050, down 245; CY05 - CF05 was 5,845, down 180; CY09 - CF09 was 5,470, down 185. Internal - external spreads: 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 2,900, up 116; sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 1,883, up 107; internal - external cotton yarn spread was 241, down 41 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On January 7, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1789 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous day. Short - term price index is expected to be relatively stable [4] - U.S. upland cotton inspection volume was 259.9 tons, with 85.94% progress, a year - on - year decrease of 11%; Pima cotton inspection volume was 68,500 tons, with 83.3% progress, 22% slower year - on - year. Weekly deliverable ratio was 77.5%, quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.5%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year [4] - As of January 3, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 31.2% complete, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 0.1 percentage points faster year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage points slower than the three - year average [4] Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 is being confirmed. Cotton sales progress is fast, and factors like improved Sino - U.S. relations and expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the cotton price. However, due to the rapid rise on Friday, there may be short - term correction risks [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: U.S. cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term correction risks [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [6] - Options: Hold off on trading [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - In the pure - cotton yarn market, trading was average, with traders and downstream weavers making purchases based on demand. Yarn prices continued to rise, especially for medium - and high - count yarns. Air - spun and low - count yarns lagged in price increases and had higher inventory pressure. Mainland textile mills' operating rates continued to decline, while Xinjiang mills' high operating rates supported cotton consumption. As January approaches the holiday, orders are scarce, and weavers are stocking up, with a high probability of early holidays if the market doesn't improve [8] - The pure - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with most manufacturers cautious about post - holiday performance. Orders for the new year are few, and the overall trading atmosphere is thin. Weavers are eager to sell, with price increases subject to negotiation based on order volume. The market trend is weaker than last year [8] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 24, 2025, for CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,585.00, the closing price was 183.00, up 71.0%, IV was 6.7%, Delta was 0.7924, Gamma was 0.0012, Vega was 8.9763, theoretical leverage was - 2.5396, and actual leverage was 58,823.8 [10] - For CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,585.00, the closing price was 7.00, down 75.9%, IV was 11.4%, Delta was - 0.0470, Gamma was 0.0000, Vega was 3.0820, theoretical leverage was - 1.2967, and actual leverage was 91,213.6 [10] - For CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,585.00, the closing price was 2.00, down 83.3%, IV was 17.3%, Delta was - 0.0106, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 0.8840, theoretical leverage was - 0.5394, and actual leverage was 72,000.5 [10] Volatility Analysis - The 10 - day HV of cotton the previous day was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [10] Option Strategy - The previous day, the PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7339, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.6421. Both call and put trading volumes decreased today. The option strategy is to hold off on trading [11][12] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [14][17][21][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data showed that the increase in production was greater than the growth in demand, and the absolute level of inventory was relatively high, which had been digested by the market. Today's sharp rise in the market will drive a certain increase in spot prices and a warming of transactions. The warming of winter storage sentiment may stimulate a wave of demand. The cost side provides strong support, and the anti-involution policy also provides strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and buy on dips, expecting the price to continue to rise strongly [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents Market Review - Futures prices: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 103,802 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 943,506 lots, a significant increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,259 yuan, and the high was 3,338 yuan. It closed at 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%. It stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages [1] - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -42 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons to 3.0451 million tons. Production has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, iron water transfer from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance and increased resumption of production [3] - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons to 3.1077 million tons. Demand still shows resilience, but future demand data needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons to 3.7096 million tons week-on-week. Social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons. The inventory is still being depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed. The total inventory is at a five-year high, still exerting downward pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability [3][4] - External macro: The events in the United States and Venezuela may bring uncertainties [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Significant decline in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding expectations in steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]