Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown a mixed performance with a slight increase in value, while new listings of technology innovation bond ETFs have significantly boosted the market size and liquidity [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 17, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF has increased by 0.28% this month, ranking 1 out of 4 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's latest price is 101.36 yuan, with a trading volume of 50.33 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - Over the past six months, the net value of the Bosera credit bond ETF has risen by 1.36%, placing it 23 out of 477 in the index bond fund rankings [4]. Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - The Bosera credit bond ETF has reached a new high in size at 129.32 billion yuan, ranking 2 out of 4 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has seen a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 297,000 shares over the past two weeks, also ranking 2 out of 4 [3]. - The recent inflow of funds has been stable, with a total of 4.86 billion yuan attracted over the last ten trading days [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the Bosera credit bond ETF is 0.89%, with a recovery time of 26 days [4]. - The ETF has a historical monthly profit probability of 75.96% and a 100% probability of profit over a six-month holding period [4]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Tracking and Precision - The Bosera credit bond ETF closely tracks the Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index, reflecting the operational characteristics of the credit bond market [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF this year is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of the upward movement of bond yields in this round may shift from the previous "tightening of funds by the central bank → upward movement of bond yields" to "trend - upward movement of the stock market → upward movement of bond yields" [5] - If the economy is relatively stable in the second half of the year and inflation recovers moderately, the funds rate may rise with a lag, and this kind of funds tightening is irreversible, pushing the yields to rise continuously in a step - by - step manner [5] - If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out, and the flow pattern may be "stock market rise → lagged rise in bond yields → final rise in the funds rate". For the convertible bond market, if the economy does not decline significantly, off - market funds may flow in trend - wise [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Three Dimensions of the Stock - Bond Seesaw - Intraday seesaw: When the bond lacks a main - line logic, the risk preference of the stock market may affect the bond trend, but it is mainly a short - term disturbance [2] - Periodic seesaw: It is often related to the short - term and drastic flow of funds. When the stock market rises significantly, it may lead to the concentrated redemption of bond funds and the inflow into stock funds, causing a short - term and obvious adjustment in the bond market [2] - Trend - based seesaw: For example, in 2017 and from May to December 2020, the stock market rose and bond yields went up; in 2018, the stock market fell and bond yields declined [2] 2. Essence of the Trend - based Stock - Bond Seesaw - Except for the period from 2014 - 2015, the trend - upward movement of the stock market usually occurs when the economy is improving, corresponding to the trend - upward movement of bond yields [3] - The trend - upward movement of the stock market leads the upward movement of bond yields. For example, in November 2008, the stock market started to rise, while for bonds it was January 2009 [3] 3. Four Logics for the Stock Market's Leading Role - The stock market is more sensitive to the economy as stock trading is often bottom - up and more sensitive to changes in micro - entities [4] - The stock market represents the market - based endogenous driving force. Only when market expectations continue to improve will the stock market show a trend - upward movement [4] - Bond investors have strong stickiness because of the coupon income of bond assets. As long as the yields do not rise significantly, holding bonds to obtain coupons is often the dominant choice [4] - Due to the relative - return - based assessment mechanism of bond funds, bond investors have difficulty in reducing the duration [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, overseas focus is on the impact of US tariffs on various countries, while domestically, attention is on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the impact of the stock - bond seesaw [5]. - Regarding precious metals, the expectation of loose monetary policy will drive up the prices of gold and silver, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different price trends. For example, copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound, aluminum prices will follow the commodity atmosphere, zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and volatile in the short - term, etc. [9][10][11]. - In the black building materials market, the prices of finished products are oscillating strongly. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand repair rhythm, and cost support [23]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish, while crude oil is recommended to be observed for risk control [37][39]. - In the agricultural products market, different products also have different trends. For example, for pork, short - term long positions may have space, while for eggs, a strategy of waiting for a rebound to short is recommended [52][53]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Macro News**: The starting price of the super - luxury car consumption tax is adjusted to 900,000 yuan; Guangzhou Futures Exchange implements trading limits on polysilicon futures; Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Japan; US import prices and retail sales data show different trends [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, focus on the July "Central Political Bureau Meeting". It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS showed different price changes [4]. - **News**: US retail sales and initial jobless claims data are released; the central bank conducts 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver show different trends; the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index are provided [6]. - **Market Outlook**: US retail sales data is affected by price factors, and the dovish attitude of the Fed supports the price of silver. It is recommended to go long on silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices rise; LME inventory increases, and domestic social inventory decreases [9]. - **Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere supports copper prices, but the expectation of US copper tariffs brings risks. The raw material shortage situation is weakening, and the rebound strength is expected to be weak [9]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices rise; domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases, and LME inventory increases [10]. - **Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is positive, but the overseas trade situation is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and prices will follow the commodity atmosphere [10]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rises, and LME zinc falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [11]. - **Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish, and in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [11]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [12]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is slightly weak. Domestic lead prices are expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillate; the price of nickel iron falls, and the price of nickel ore weakens [13][14][15]. - **Analysis**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillate; the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the actual output needs time [16]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is low, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The price of lithium carbonate rises; production increases, and inventory increases slightly [17]. - **Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to industry information and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index falls; spot prices in different regions show different trends; the import window is closed [18]. - **Analysis**: The price of bauxite is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina remains. It is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The price of stainless steel rises; social inventory decreases slightly, but the inventory of some varieties is still high [19]. - **Analysis**: Affected by policies and demand, stainless steel prices are expected to rise slightly [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rises slightly; inventory increases slightly [20]. - **Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The cost support is strengthened, but the price increase is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise; the inventory of rebar accumulates slightly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreases [22][23]. - **Analysis**: The market atmosphere is positive, but the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. It is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The price of iron ore rises; the supply and demand situation changes, and the port inventory increases slightly [24][25]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and macro - economic factors [25]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The price of glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to be weak in the medium - term [26][27]. - **Analysis**: The supply of glass is stable, and the demand is resilient; the supply of soda ash is loose, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rise; the price trends are affected by market sentiment [28]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is still bearish, but in the short - term, the market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The price of industrial silicon rises slightly; the supply is excessive, and the demand is insufficient [32]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the price is affected by sentiment. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging operations [32][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices rise; the开工 rate of tire enterprises changes, and the inventory situation is different [37]. - **Analysis**: Rubber prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to go long in the medium - term and be neutral - long in the short - term [37][38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rise, and INE crude oil prices fall; the inventory of refined oil products changes [39]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to observe and control risks [39]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price of methanol rises; the upstream and downstream situations change [40]. - **Analysis**: The market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price of urea rises; the supply and demand situation is acceptable [41]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [41]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene rises, and the futures price falls; the BZN spread is expected to repair [42]. - **Analysis**: The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side [42]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The price of PVC rises; the supply is strong, and the demand is weak [44]. - **Analysis**: The market is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the future [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The price of ethylene glycol rises; the supply and demand situation changes [45]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but the fundamental situation is weak [45]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The price of PTA rises; the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure [46]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX on dips [46]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The price of p - xylene rises; the supply and demand situation changes [47][48]. - **Analysis**: In the third quarter, p - xylene is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips following the price of crude oil [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE rises, and the现货 price falls; the inventory and demand situation changes [49]. - **Analysis**: The price of PE is expected to oscillate downward [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP rises, and the现货 price falls; the supply and demand situation is weak [50]. - **Analysis**: The price of PP is expected to be bearish in July. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Quotes**: The price of hogs falls; the short - term supply decreases seasonally, but there is pressure in the medium - term [52]. - **Analysis**: Short - term long positions may have space, but attention should be paid to supply delay and hedging pressure [52]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs rises; the supply is large, and the short - term rebound space is limited [53]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [53]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The price of US soybeans rebounds; the price of domestic soybean meal rises [54]. - **Analysis**: The soybean market is long - short intertwined. It is recommended to go long on dips and wait for new driving factors [54][55]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: The price of palm oil rises; the export and production situation of palm oil changes [56][57]. - **Analysis**: The price of oils is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and production [58][59]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The price of sugar rises; the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year [60]. - **Analysis**: The price of sugar is expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [60]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The price of cotton rises; the export situation of textiles and clothing changes [61]. - **Analysis**: The price of cotton has rebounded, but there are potential negative factors [61].

Group 1 - The bond market is currently facing adjustment pressure, with yields generally rising; from July 7 to July 16, the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increased by 2 basis points (bp) and 3 bp to 1.66% and 1.87%, respectively [1] - The recent adjustment in stock dividend rates has alleviated the pressure on bond market valuations, making the risk-reward ratio more favorable; the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index dropped from an average of 3.47% in May to 3% on July 14 [1] - The liquidity environment is relatively stable, with social financing growth expected to peak around 9.0% in July before trending down to approximately 8.2% by year-end, which limits disturbances to the bond market [2] Group 2 - The recent tightening of the funding environment has led to profit-taking in the equity market, causing credit spreads in certain bonds to widen; for instance, from July 7 to July 14, the credit spreads for 5-year secondary bonds AA+/AAA- and 3-year local government bonds AA/AA+ widened by 2.3 bp/1.4 bp and 2.0 bp/3.0 bp, respectively [3] - Despite the current adjustments, the core logic of secondary bonds remains intact, as the "amplifier" property of interest rate fluctuations persists in a liquidity easing environment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The current cost - performance advantage of bonds is gradually emerging, which may provide a more favorable valuation support environment for the phased layout of interest - rate bonds [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a relatively stable operating foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate may peak in the third quarter and then decline trend - wise, and the expected impact of structural changes on the bond market is limited. The bond market faces a relatively friendly liquidity environment [7][24]. - The central bank has clearly shown its attitude of protecting liquidity, and the money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the yield curve and various convex point opportunities, and the spread may continue to be flattened in late July. It is advisable to first focus on interest - rate bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and then on credit bonds [7][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Bond Market Callback - From July 7th to July 16th, the yields of the bond market generally increased. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased by 2bp and 3bp respectively, and the short - end yields increased more significantly. The adjustment of Tier 2 capital bonds was more obvious [5][12]. Bond Market Odds Gradually Rising - The adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The decline of the CSI 300 dividend yield from the May average of 3.47% to 3.0% on July 14th is conducive to the inflow of funds into the bond market [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a stable foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate is expected to reach a high of about 9.0% in July and then decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year. The support of government bonds for social financing may weaken in the fourth quarter, and the substitution effect of special refinancing bonds on RMB loans will continue. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the bond market's liquidity environment is friendly [7][24]. 10 - year Treasury Bond Has Certain Odds Above 1.65%, Recommend First Interest - rate and Tier 2 Capital Bonds, Then Credit Bonds - Due to the disturbance of the money market at the beginning of the quarter and the strengthening of the equity market, the Tier 2 capital bonds and credit bonds with previously compressed spreads have given back their gains, especially the medium - and long - term and some medium - and low - grade varieties. However, the core logic of Tier 2 capital bonds has not changed [33]. - Since July 10th, the central bank has shifted to net investment in open - market operations. The money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to seize the layout opportunities after the adjustment, with medium - and short - term varieties as the basis for coupon income, and medium - and high - grade 3 - 5 - year varieties having better elasticity in interest - rate band operations [34].

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential communities, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18]. - The renovation of old residential communities and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18]. - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18]. Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% for Q2 [2][20]. - Consumer spending showed resilience, with retail sales growth of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed improvement compared to the previous year [2][20]. - Industrial production increased, with the industrial added value in June rising to 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][20]. Fixed Income - The bond market experienced a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week of July 7-11, 2025, influenced by stock market performance [6]. - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 34.825 billion yuan during the week of July 7-11, 2025, while the trading volume of green bonds in the secondary market reached 62.3 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of secondary capital bonds amounted to 53 billion yuan during the same week, with a total trading volume of approximately 185.5 billion yuan in the secondary market [8]. Company Analysis - The company "锅圈" is expected to achieve revenue of 72.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a net profit of 4.0 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71% [9]. - "水井坊" anticipates a revenue decline of approximately 12.8% in H1 2025, with a net profit drop of about 56.5%, indicating challenges in the current market environment [10]. - "新和成" is projected to achieve net profits of 60 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 2%, supported by ongoing project developments in nutrition and new materials [11]. - "博瑞医药" has received IND approval for its oral drug BGM0504, which is expected to enter clinical trials soon, indicating strong potential in the diabetes treatment market [12][13]. - "炬芯科技" reported a revenue increase of 59% in Q2 2025, driven by the successful implementation of AI technology in its product offerings [14]. - "美图公司" has adjusted its profit forecast slightly downward but remains optimistic about its AI-driven growth strategy, projecting net profits of 8.54 billion yuan in 2025 [15].

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 293.2 billion, 231.8 billion, and 165 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 193.1 billion, 110.2 billion, and 159 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 277.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 95.8 billion. One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 4.9 billion [1] Liquidity Tracking - The net absorption through OMO was 226.5 billion, with marginal tightening of funds, and both repo and certificate of deposit rates increased [2] Policy and Fundamentals - The June CPI year-on-year was 0.1%, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.6%, with CPI meeting expectations and PPI significantly below expectations [3] Overseas Market - The US announced a new round of tariff increases on the EU, Mexico, and Brazil, with rates raised to between 30% and 50%, and the deadline for reciprocal tariff negotiations extended to August 1 [4] Equity Market - Influenced by real estate policy expectations and anti-involution, the Wande All A index continued its upward trend, with real estate and building materials sectors leading the gains. The Wande All A rose by 1.71%, the ChiNext index increased by 2.36%, and the CSI 300 rose by 0.82%. The average daily trading volume in A-shares slightly increased to nearly 1.5 trillion, up by 54.748 billion from the previous week [5] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - With the upcoming tax period and MLF maturity, funding demand is expected to increase. However, the central bank has started to restore net reverse repos, which may continue to increase liquidity supply. The market is currently pricing in expectations around real estate policies and upstream commodity price increases, but the necessity for significant short-term stimulus policies is low given the strong economic performance in the first half of the year [6]

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential areas, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18] - The renovation of old residential areas and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18] - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18] Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% [2][20] - Consumer spending showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed resilience compared to the previous year [2][20] - Industrial production in June saw a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][21] Company Analysis - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027 due to pressure from falling lithium prices and temporary losses in copper smelting, projecting net profits of 4.0/9.6/19.3 billion yuan [10] - Li Ning (02331.HK) anticipates challenges in sales due to deepening discounts and increased expenses, with revised net profit forecasts of 23.1/26.0/29.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [10] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) is expanding its superstore network and maintaining industry-leading growth, with net profit forecasts of 13.0/14.6/16.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11] - Zhongrong Electric (301031) expects continued high growth in its electric vehicle-related products, projecting net profits of 3.4/4.8/6.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - Huanxin Cement (600801) reported a significant increase in Q2 profits, driven by improvements in domestic cement profitability and overseas operations, with revised net profit forecasts of 28.8/32.2/35.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [15]

Market Overview - The bond market showed slight recovery on July 15, with government bond futures rising across the board, supported by stable economic data [1] - The average yield on interbank cash bonds fell by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan into the market, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures were as follows: 30-year contract rose by 0.47% to 120.760, 10-year contract increased by 0.18% to 108.890, 5-year contract up by 0.13% to 106.025, and 2-year contract up by 0.04% to 102.418 [2] - Major interbank bond yields turned downward, with the 7-year bond yield decreasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.595% and the 10-year bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.657% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.40 basis points to 4.433% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 1.58% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 2 basis points to 3.430% [4] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields below market estimates, with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4996%, 1.5524%, and 1.6815% respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, injecting 342.5 billion yuan into the market [6] - The Shibor rates for overnight and short-term products increased, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [6] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [7] - In June, 14 out of 70 major cities saw new residential prices increase month-on-month, with notable price changes in cities like Changsha and Shanghai [8] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that export pressures may rise in the second half of the year, while Huatai Securities highlighted that the bond market remains crowded with potential short-term volatility [9] - Xingzheng Securities indicated that the bond bull market remains intact, with further room for long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields to reach new lows in Q3 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market oscillated downward. Affected by the continuous net withdrawal by the central bank with a still loose capital - side and the economic expectation adjustment due to the easing of overseas tariffs, the yields of both short - and long - term bonds increased. Meanwhile, the strong stock market drove the risk appetite to recover, and funds flowed from the bond market to the equity market, forming an obvious "stock - bond seesaw" effect. The bond market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year yield expected to fluctuate between 1.64% - 1.68%. In the medium and long term, it will maintain the basis for a bull market supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+5.06%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.11, with a day - on - day increase of 0.24 (+0.25%); the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1702, with a day - on - day increase of 0.003 (+0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.71%); DR007 was 1.54, with a day - on - day increase of 0.06 (+4.36%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.31%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1 - year) was 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+1.31%) [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of Treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of Treasury bonds of various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the trading - to - position ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [10][12][14]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Side - Relevant figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, bond lending turnover and the total position of Treasury bond futures, Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28][30]. 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond yield and futures price (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][39][40]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][45][52]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54][52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62][64]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the repurchase rate rising and the Treasury bond futures price oscillating, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].