Core Viewpoint - The article outlines key policy directions and developments in China's economic and financial landscape as the year comes to a close, focusing on fiscal, monetary, and industrial strategies for 2026. Fiscal Policy - The National Fiscal Work Conference emphasized expanding fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditure levels, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing fiscal-financial collaboration to amplify policy effectiveness [3][27]. - The report on the 2025 fiscal budget indicated a focus on directing new special bond quotas towards regions with well-prepared projects and high investment efficiency, while also addressing local government hidden debt issues [3][11]. - The Ministry of Finance and other regulatory bodies are committed to strict measures against the creation of new hidden debts, reinforcing accountability for local governments [3][15]. Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted the importance of integrating incremental and stock policies to support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [4][15]. - The PBOC's Financial Stability Report for 2025 aims to create a favorable environment for long-term investments in the A-share market, enhancing the scale and proportion of various long-term funds [4][29]. Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) called for optimizing traditional industries, particularly in steel and petrochemicals, by balancing supply and demand and promoting structural reforms [5][26]. - The NDRC's recent initiatives include fostering innovation in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, while addressing issues of "involution" in competition to maintain a fair market environment [5][26]. - The Industrial and Information Technology Conference outlined strategies to stabilize manufacturing investments, enhance industrial chain resilience, and promote technological innovation [5][22]. Encouragement of Foreign Investment - The updated Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment aims to attract more foreign capital into advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors, particularly in central and western regions of China [17][19]. - The 2025 version of the directory includes 1,679 entries, with a net increase of 205 entries compared to the previous version, reflecting a strategic focus on sectors like smart manufacturing and modern service industries [18][19]. Infrastructure Development - The NDRC's article on modern infrastructure emphasizes the need for high-quality construction of strategic transport corridors and energy networks, as well as enhancing safety measures for critical infrastructure [21][26]. - The focus on developing a comprehensive infrastructure system includes promoting low-altitude and hub economies, as well as ensuring robust safety protocols for major energy projects [21][26].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are focused on the fiscal policy's strength and pace, as well as the supply pressure of government bonds, which are the core concerns for the bond market outlook in January [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Expectations - Investors have a neutral outlook on the long-term government bond yield range, indicating a "top and bottom" fluctuation state [2]. - The prevailing expectation in the bond market is "strong short, weak long," reflecting a cautious sentiment towards long-term bonds [2]. - The operational stance of the bond market is neutral, with a predominant view of holding cash and maintaining stable positions [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is no strong consensus among investors regarding the direction of the January bond market, with expectations leaning towards "cautiously optimistic, structurally driven" [2]. - Short-term rates are favored due to the benefits from a loose liquidity environment, while long-term rates face caution due to potential fundamental recovery and supply pressure [2]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - Most investors are adopting a neutral operational stance, preferring to wait for price corrections before increasing positions, with a slight decrease in those willing to add positions from 14% in November to 11% [3]. - The focus of bond market investors has shifted to fiscal policy, which is now the primary concern and potential source of volatility [3]. - There is a clear shift in asset preference towards mid- to short-term bonds, with a rising preference for interbank certificates of deposit, while the willingness to allocate to long-term bonds has decreased [3].

Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expectations for further space in both areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3][6] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is likely to remain the same as this year, but total fiscal spending may slightly increase due to economic growth, maintaining a certain level of fiscal intensity [6][7] - Monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and efficient, with options for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, as well as the continued use of structural monetary policy tools [6][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The primary task for economic work in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with consumption and investment as the dual engines, addressing current issues of weak internal momentum and insufficient interaction between consumption and investment [9][10] - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation and improve the interaction between domestic and international cycles, preparing for long-term and complex international economic challenges [9][10] - Measures to boost investment include increasing central budget investment, optimizing the use of local government special bonds, and enhancing the role of new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [11] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate has shown resilience against external pressures, with expectations for a moderate appreciation in 2026, although caution is advised against unilateral bets on the RMB's performance due to mixed influencing factors [13][14] - The central economic work conference reiterated the goal of maintaining the RMB exchange rate's basic stability, balancing against excessive depreciation or appreciation [15][16] Group 4: Gold Price Trends - The outlook for gold prices is cautiously optimistic, supported by the logic of "gold re-monetization" and "global asset rebalancing," with a shift in demand from central banks to private investors [17][18] - The current gold price rally is driven by both central bank purchases and increasing private investment demand, indicating a potential for further price increases [18]

（来源：远东资信） 摘要 宏观经济方面，1-11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.1%，增速较前十个月放缓1.8个百分点， 自8月以来累计增速连续四个月保持增长。国家统计局对2024年GDP数据进行最终核实，2024年GDP现 价总量为1348066亿元，比初步核算数减少1018亿元；按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%，与初步核算 数持平。从全球来看，12月26日，10年期美债收益率较周初下行3BP至4.14%，有效联邦基金利率为 3.64%，较前期持平。2025年11月，美国经季节调整的非农就业人数增加6.4万人，10月非农就业人数减 少10.5万人，9月非农就业人数从增加11.9万人下修至增加10.8万人，8月非农就业人数从减少0.4万人下 修至减少2.6万人，合计下修3.3万人。11月失业率升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来最高值。欧元区基准利 率维持2.15%，日本基准利率维持0.75%。 债券市场方面，从无风险收益率来看，上周10年期国债收益率维持在1.84%左右，2年期国债收益率整 体有所下行。12月26日，10年期国债到期收益率较周初持平为1.8376%，2年期国债到期收益率较周初 下行3 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a "short weak long strong" trend, with mixed performance in government bond futures and a majority of interbank bond yields declining, although short-term yields slightly rebounded in the afternoon [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan in the open market, with significant increases in funding rates observed [1][4] - Institutions suggest that the bond market is likely to remain in a slightly weak oscillating pattern, with steepening pressure on the yield curve, and recommend gradual allocation at high points [1][5] Group 2 - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 2.45 basis points to 3.450% and the 10-year yield down by 1.95 basis points to 4.108% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also decreased, with French bonds down by 3.6 basis points to 3.523% and German bonds down by 3.2 basis points to 2.827% [3] - The market sentiment is fragile, with adjustments in the bond market driven by trading factors and supply-demand concerns, leading to expectations of a weak oscillating trend in the first quarter of the following year [5][6] Group 3 - The central bank's recent operations included a fixed-rate reverse repurchase agreement of 312.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total net injection of 253.2 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [4] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.247%, while the 14-day rate rose by 21.9 basis points to 1.869%, marking a new high since April 2025 [4] - Institutions predict that fiscal policy will be more proactive in 2026, with continued expansion in spending directed towards new infrastructure, technological innovation, and basic public services to stimulate consumption [5]

Group 1 - The market in 2026 is expected to continue the operational logic from 2024, with fiscal and monetary policies remaining the main driving forces, providing significant support to the fundamentals [1] - Monetary policy is anticipated to have more operational space due to potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle for the dollar [1] - Fiscal policy is expected to focus on investment, shifting from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and hard technology sectors [1] Group 2 - Export performance is projected to exceed market expectations, supported by a relatively stable export environment compared to the first half of 2025, despite potential challenges in US-China trade negotiations [1] - The competitiveness of Chinese export products is highlighted, even amidst discussions of trade balance in Europe, indicating that exports will remain a crucial support for China's economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 3 - Since 2024, market sentiment has transitioned through three phases: extreme pessimism, expectation recovery, and reasonable valuation, with current optimism driven by policies encouraging stock buybacks and enhancing dividend requirements [2] - The market is expected to show a steady upward trend, gradually incorporating more positive expectations, transitioning from lagging to leading performance relative to fundamentals [2] - The company managing consumer-themed funds aims for a stable investment approach, focusing on high-quality stocks with valuation advantages and sustainable growth in various consumer sectors [2] Group 4 - In the gold jewelry industry, most retail enterprises are experiencing slow growth or even negative growth due to rising gold prices, while their valuations remain reasonable [3] - The gold mining sector is viewed as having strong long-term investment appeal compared to downstream retail enterprises [3] - In the optional consumption sector, companies in the downstream real estate chain, such as construction materials, have adjusted valuations to reasonable levels and maintain certain growth resilience, indicating good long-term investment value [3]

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月29日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 12月金银铜均出现加速上行，一方面受美元流动性改善驱动，另一 方面铜的全球库存结构性矛盾以及自身估值修复对行情起到了推波 助澜的作用。短期虽然受到假期不确定性增加，获利盘止盈离场的 影响，铜价格短期波动加剧，但中长期上行趋势未改。宏观层面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： 锰硅： 昨天螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3130元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨12元/ 吨，涨幅为0.38%，持仓减少0.36万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平 于2940元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨10元/吨至3240元/吨，全国建材成交量11.78万吨。据钢银数 据，本周全国建材库存下降8.16%至311.63万吨，热卷库存下降2.93%至199.29万吨。建材库存维持大幅 下降趋势，热卷库存降幅有所收窄。全国财政工作会议明确明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财 政支出盘子，同时提高政策精准度和有效性。2026年财政政策有望继续发力加码，对基建投资增速有一 定的向上提振预期，在一定程度上提升市场信心。不过1月开始钢厂或将逐渐复产，叠加需求的季节性 走弱特点，后期供需驱动依然向下。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所上涨，收于796.5元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨13.5元/吨， 涨幅为1.7%，成交46万手，增仓4.9万 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese stock market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, is experiencing a strong upward momentum, with the offshore RMB strengthening against the USD, reaching a 15-month high at the 7.0 level, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital [1] - It is anticipated that China's monetary and fiscal policies will remain accommodative through 2026, leading to a recovery in overall demand, while global fiscal expansion in the US, Europe, and Japan is expected to improve demand [1] - The CSI A500 index is highlighted for its balanced industry exposure and higher growth potential, making it a favorable option during the structural upgrade cycle, with an annualized return of 9.11% and a volatility of 21.41% since its base period, outperforming the CSI 300 in terms of total returns [2] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index's characteristics of industry balance and coverage of leading companies across various sectors provide investors with a defensive yet growth-oriented investment choice, particularly in volatile markets [2] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which offers a combination of safety and growth potential [2]