Summary of the Conference Call on US-China Trade Talks Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Trade relations between the United States and China - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Key Points and Arguments Trade Negotiations Overview - The third round of trade negotiations between China and the US took place in Stockholm on July 28-29, 2025, following previous meetings in Geneva and London. The meeting was described as "very constructive" but did not yield significant breakthroughs or concrete outcomes [2][3][4] Tariff Truce and Future Meetings - A tariff truce announced after the Geneva talks is set to expire on August 12, 2025, but is likely to be extended pending President Trump's approval. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that a 90-day extension is a possibility, suggesting a potential summit between President Trump and President Xi in November 2025 [2][4] Economic Developments and Trade Imbalances - Discussions included updates on economic developments in both countries, efforts to reduce bilateral trade imbalances, and the implementation of previous agreements, particularly concerning China's rare earth exports to the US and US technology export controls [3][6] Tariff Rates and Projections - The US average effective tariff rate is projected to rise to 18-20%, up from 13.4% at the beginning of the year. New general tariff rates of 15% for the EU and Japan and a 20% ceiling for ASEAN were mentioned, with ongoing negotiations with Korea, India, and Taiwan [5][6] Impact on China's Economic Outlook - The outcome of trade negotiations and tariffs is crucial for China's economic outlook in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. The current tariff rate of 42% on Chinese imports is expected to remain stable, although sector-specific tariffs may increase due to ongoing investigations [6][8] Global Trade Dynamics - The US's trade negotiations with other partners could negatively impact China if higher tariffs reduce US import demand. However, if the increase in tariffs on China is smaller than those on other trading partners, the impact on Chinese imports may be less severe than anticipated [9][10] Multilateral Trade Relationships - China's trade relationships with non-US partners are becoming increasingly important as the US adopts a unilateral trade approach. There are calls for trade multilateralism, but concerns about China's manufacturing dominance complicate these efforts [10][11] Risks and Uncertainties - While the worst of the tariff shocks may be over, trade uncertainty remains a significant risk for the Chinese economy. The Chinese government's response to external uncertainties and domestic challenges will be critical [11] Other Important Content - The document includes contact information for analysts involved in the research, emphasizing the independence of the research team and the importance of compliance with regulatory standards [7][25][57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is mixed with long and short factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats. However, the current high valuation limits the upward space, and the market should be viewed as volatile [9]. - The price of white sugar futures is expected to continue to decline, given factors such as increased imports and expected growth in domestic planting area [11][12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, with weak downstream consumption and a slowdown in inventory reduction [14][15]. - The egg market has an oversupply situation. In the short - term, short - position holders can reduce positions, and in the medium - term, short - selling after a rebound is advisable [17][18]. - The pig market is in the process of restructuring, with more attention on the opportunities of the spread between different contract months [21]. 3. Summaries by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday night, the US soybeans rebounded. The US - China trade negotiation has not provided benefits for US soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal inventory decreased slightly last week due to good apparent consumption and reduced crushing volume. The US soybean production area is expected to have slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase [2][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, consider expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [4]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil export data shows a decline trend in June. In July, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month. The domestic spot basis of oils and fats is stable at a low level [6][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the central price of oils and fats. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current high valuation restricts the upward space, and the market should be viewed as volatile [9]. White Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou white sugar futures price continued to fall. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the first half of July increased by 15.07% year - on - year, and India's net sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of Zhengzhou white sugar futures is likely to continue to decline, considering factors such as increased imports and expected growth in domestic planting area [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded slightly. The downstream开机率 is at a low level, and the cotton inventory decreased last week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, with weak downstream consumption and a slowdown in inventory reduction [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price mostly fell, with sufficient supply and slow market digestion. The egg price may be stable in most areas and weak in a few areas today [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, short - position holders can reduce positions, and in the medium - term, short - selling after a rebound is advisable, considering the large supply and market expectations [18]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price mainly fell yesterday, with some areas rising slightly. After the continuous decline of pig prices, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the pig price may stabilize today [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. The spread between different contract months should be focused on, with more uncertainty in the single - side trading [21].

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower due to inventory growth concerns, with short - term pressure to break below 4,200 ringgit and potentially test 4,000 ringgit support. After a brief shock or digestion of the MPOB report, it may continue to decline, possibly briefly breaking below 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure at high levels and may test the 8,800 - yuan support. If it breaks below, it may continue to decline and could potentially fall to around 8,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - Due to high soybean arrivals, factory operating rates are above 60%, leading to increased soybean oil production and inventory in most regions. However, historical data suggests inventory will soon reach a peak and then decline as demand increases, causing spot basis quotes to rise after narrow - range fluctuations [4]. Bean Meal - The stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations persists. China's fourth - quarter soybean purchases are locked in South America, with high Brazilian and rising Argentine premiums supporting costs. The short - term continuous bean meal 09 contract will test the 3,040 - 3,050 yuan resistance. Spot prices are rising, and the basis is narrowing. As of the end of Week 31, 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased to 1.053 million tons, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Group 2: Oil Price and Spread Information Oil Price - Palm oil: The 01 contract is at 8,832 yuan/ton (-1.1%), the 05 contract is at 8,638 yuan/ton (-1.21%), the 09 contract is at 8,838 yuan/ton (-0.81%), and BMD palm oil is at 4,172 ringgit/ton (-1.72%) [7]. - Soybean oil: The 01 contract is at 8,214 yuan/ton (0.59%), the 05 contract is at 7,848 yuan/ton (0.29%), the 09 contract is at 8,250 yuan/ton (0.47%), and CBOT soybean oil is at 53.9 cents/pound (-1.55%) [13]. Spread - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 186 yuan/ton (+4), P 5 - 9 is - 166 yuan/ton (-2), P 9 - 1 is - 20 yuan/ton (-2) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 704 yuan/ton (+56), Y - P 05 is - 896 yuan/ton (+32), Y - P 09 is - 636 yuan/ton (+72) [5]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price and Spread Information Futures Price - Bean meal: The 01 contract is at 3,055 (+18, 0.59%), the 05 contract is at 2,746 (+8, 0.29%), the 09 contract is at 3,024 (+14, 0.47%) [18]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract is at 2,432 (+23, 0.95%), the 05 contract is at 2,380 (+5, 0.21%), the 09 contract is at 2,678 (+3, 0.11%) [18]. Spread - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 299 (unchanged), M05 - 09 is - 272 (unchanged), M09 - 01 is - 27 (unchanged) [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 34 (unchanged), RM05 - 09 is - 300 (unchanged), RM09 - 01 is 266 (unchanged) [19][21].

Investment Insights - The report highlights that the subsidy for replacing old appliances is continuing as expected, which supports domestic demand in the white goods sector [6] - Leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, are expected to show strong performance due to their robust overseas production capacity and market expansion strategies [6] - The two-wheeler sector is anticipated to benefit from accelerated national subsidies, with leading companies like Yadea Holdings expected to outperform the industry [6] - The black goods segment is seeing improvements in profitability driven by the old-for-new policy and structural upgrades, with a recommendation for Hisense Visual and a watch on TCL Electronics [6] Market Review - In July, the home appliance index showed a slight increase of 0.92%, but underperformed compared to the broader market indices, indicating a challenging environment for the sector [13] - The report notes that the home appliance sector's performance has been affected by fluctuating subsidy policies and tariff expectations, leading to a mixed market sentiment [12][13] - The overall market sentiment improved in July due to expectations of fiscal easing and a focus on "anti-involution" policies, which positively impacted the sector's absolute returns [13] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant price movements in raw materials, noting that copper and aluminum prices increased by 3% and 8% year-on-year, respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices decreased by 6% [20] - Retail sales of air conditioners showed strong growth in June, with online and offline sales increasing by 28% and 40% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a robust demand environment [27] - The report also highlights that the average selling prices of air conditioners have seen a slight decline, suggesting a competitive pricing environment [27][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply in the US, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small fluctuating increase due to a single supply source, and it may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves substantially [3]. - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot end may start to destock at the end of September [5]. - The EPA policy, the expected B50 policy in the long - term, and the limited supply of Southeast Asian palm oil have raised the annual operation center of oils and fats. However, as of now, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still bearish factors [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline. With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline is relatively high [12][13]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline. The downstream consumption is average, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the short - term trend is bearish [15][16]. - The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week, but the increase may be limited due to the large inventory [18]. - The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The market supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is in a low - valuation and oversupplied state. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation [3][5]. - **Weather**: The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts at low levels [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil in June showed a downward trend, while the production in July increased year - on - year. The export of Indonesian palm oil from January to June increased by 2.69% year - on - year, and the average export price increased by 22.2% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the center of the oils and fats market. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, considering the high valuation and other factors, it should be regarded as a volatile market [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline on Friday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July increased by 15.07% year - on - year, and the estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline on Friday. The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased compared with last week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the situation of Sino - US economic and trade talks and the fundamentals, the short - term trend of cotton is bearish [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. The supply is large, but the demand from traders has increased. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is large, and the near - month short positions can continue to squeeze the premium. In the medium - term, short positions can be established after the price rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. The forward contracts have higher valuations. The monthly spread may show a positive structure for near - term contracts and a reverse structure for far - term contracts. More attention should be paid to the opportunities in monthly spreads [22].

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the cotton market comprehensively, concluding that the overall situation is neutral. The 01 contract of Zhengzhou cotton should be treated with a weak and oscillating mindset. The reasons include the delay of Sino - US trade negotiations, the upcoming peak season's unclear prospects during the current off - season, and the approaching contract change for the main Zhengzhou cotton contract [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/2026 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC July report predicts a global production of 2590000 tons and consumption of 2560000 tons; the USDA July report forecasts a production of 2578300 tons, consumption of 2571800 tons, and an ending inventory of 1683500 tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in June were 30000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and cotton yarn imports were 110000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15260 yuan, with a basis of 1475 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/2026 period in July to be 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The delay of Sino - US trade negotiations is lower than market expectations, leading to a general weakening of commodities. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to change to 01. Recently, the decline of the 09 contract is greater than that of the 01 contract, and the 01 contract begins to have a premium over the 09 contract. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the prospects for the "Golden September and Silver October" market are unclear, and the 01 contract should be considered with a weak and oscillating mindset [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The USDA July report shows that the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 2578300 tons, consumption is 2571800 tons, and ending inventory is 1683500 tons. The ICAC report predicts a global production of 2590000 tons and consumption of 2560000 tons in 2025/2026 [4][8][9]. - **China's Supply - Demand Balance**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/2026 forecast shows a production of 625000 tons, imports of 140000 tons, consumption of 740000 tons, and an ending inventory of 823000 tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is long, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various sectors, particularly focusing on the U.S. non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and the performance of the Chinese stock market. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest increase in nine months [11][18] - The previous two months' data were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market [11][18] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly dropped to 48%, the lowest in nine months, reflecting a contraction in the manufacturing sector [11] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 2.86% in the overnight session, with OPEC and its allies approving an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day for September [12][19] - The U.S. President threatened to penalize China and India for purchasing oil from a European country, which could risk 2.75 million barrels per day of maritime oil exports from that country [12][19] - China and India, the second and third largest oil consumers globally, have not indicated plans to reduce imports, although India has completed its procurement of Russian oil for September [12][19] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market experienced a decline following the disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls data, with significant drops in the oil, petrochemical, and defense sectors [9][10] - The market capitalization reached 1.62 trillion yuan, with a slight increase in financing balance by 432 million yuan to 19,710.27 billion yuan [9][10] - The article suggests that while the current policy signals are clear and valuations are beginning to recover, the fundamental economic conditions have yet to be validated [9][10] Group 4: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to accelerate the approval of new policy financial tools, which may boost infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [6] - Hospitals in several provinces are tightening regulations on pharmaceutical representatives, aiming to curb unethical practices in the medical field [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly research report of Guotai Junan Futures on agricultural products dated August 3, 2025, covering palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and peanuts [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may experience a short - term pullback as the macro - sentiment fades, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels. Soybean oil lacks effective drivers and should focus on the results of Sino - US negotiations. Soybean meal and soybean prices are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean weather and trade, and soybean driven by technical factors. Corn should focus on the spot market. Sugar is in range - bound trading. Cotton needs to pay attention to external market sentiment. Live pigs have a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the reverse spread is confirmed. Peanuts should focus on the weather in the producing areas [2][4][8][18][22][44][76][108][126] Group 4: Palm Oil Last Week's View and Logic - The positive domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the lack of continuous fundamental drivers and weak demand from India made it difficult for the price to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - After the bearish impact of the slightly increased inventory in the MPOB June report, palm oil started to rebound. It is estimated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but it is unlikely to exceed 2.2 million tons. Indonesia may face the problem of lower - than - expected production. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to the reduction in US soybean oil supply. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room to correct, but there is also a risk of early de - stocking due to lower - than - expected production in July - August. The soybean - palm oil spread is not likely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [5][7] Group 5: Soybean Oil Last Week's View and Logic - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders reversed the weak domestic situation. The oil mills maintained a high - level of crushing and actively exported. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - The good rainfall in the US Midwest in mid - to - late July is beneficial to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will remain weakly volatile. If the trend of soybean oil exports continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international spread. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the future [8] Group 6: Soybean Meal and Soybean Last Week's Situation - Last week, US soybean prices fell due to good weather in the producing areas and trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices oscillated, and soybean prices were weak. The strength of domestic soybean meal was affected by the strength of rapeseed meal and trade - war concerns. The fundamentals of domestic soybeans changed little, and the price was affected by market sentiment and soybean price fluctuations [18] Next Week's Forecast - It is expected that the prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean will oscillate. Soybean meal may be slightly stronger due to trade - war concerns, while domestic soybeans should focus on technical fluctuations [22] Group 7: Corn Market Review - In the spot market last week, corn prices fell slightly. In the futures market, the price also declined, and the basis strengthened [44][45] Market Outlook - CBOT corn fell last week due to favorable weather in the US agricultural area. Wheat prices were stable, and corn auctions continued. The corn starch inventory decreased. The corn supply - demand balance remains tight, and the focus should be on the spot market, especially the upward momentum in North China and the de - stocking speed of warehouse receipts in the northern ports [46][49] Group 8: Sugar This Week's Market Review - Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price decreased by 0.49%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price both declined, and the basis of the main contract increased significantly [76][77] Next Week's Market Outlook - Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level range - bound trading. Domestically, it will also be in range - bound trading, with the internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [78][106] Group 9: Cotton Market Situation - ICE cotton fell last week due to good growth of US cotton, average export sales data, and a strong US dollar. Domestic cotton futures fell by more than 4% due to concerns about low - quality warehouse receipts and a cooling financial market sentiment [108] Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the adjustment of domestic cotton futures is temporarily in place, but it needs to wait for the financial market sentiment to stabilize. It is expected to oscillate around 13,600 yuan, and attention should be paid to policy trends and downstream demand [108][124] Group 10: Live Pigs This Week's Market Review - In the spot market, pig prices were weakly operating, with a decline in the price of piglets and a slight increase in the price of live pigs. In the futures market, prices were weakly oscillating, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [126] Next Week's Market Outlook - Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The futures price of the LH2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14,500 yuan/ton [127][128]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [4][6][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the probability of interest rate cuts, which has led to rising prices for both industrial and precious metals. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support metal prices in the second half of the year [2][4]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic policy support in China, with a focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and continued investment in infrastructure [2][4]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see a long-term upward trend due to central bank purchases and weakening US dollar credit [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices have been affected by the US imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. However, domestic demand is showing signs of recovery with an increase in the operating rate of copper rod enterprises to 71.73% [2][4]. - Aluminum production capacity remains stable, but demand is weak due to seasonal factors, with social inventory increasing to 544,000 tons [2][4]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][4]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining ban, while lithium prices have seen a rapid decline amid cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain strong due to low inventory levels and increased purchasing activity from downstream sectors [3][4]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to strong central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with the report highlighting a long-term upward trend for gold prices [4][6]. - Silver prices are also expected to increase, driven by industrial demand and recovery in the market [4][6]. - Key companies recommended include Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Zijin Mining [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. The market is trading the de - stocking scenario in the second half of the year. Malaysia is expected to continue the inventory accumulation trend in July, but it is conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons. The B50 rumor in Indonesia has a low correlation with the price increase. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supply, and palm oil is sensitive to this. The bean - palm spread is unlikely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [2][3]. - Soybean oil: The continuous good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation, and if this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Without a strong supply theme, the high price needs strong downstream demand to support it. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited the trading enthusiasm. The bean - palm spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - Fundamental analysis: After the slight increase in inventory in the MPOB June report, the negative impact was digested, and the price rebounded. It is estimated that the production in July will still be difficult to reach 1.8 million tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 1.4 million tons. The demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high, and Malaysia will continue the inventory accumulation trend, but not exceed 2.2 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils is high, and the market is quite resistant to price drops. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the price increase. The production recovery may fall short of expectations, and the inventory will remain below 3 million tons throughout the year. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction in the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, which will drive up the international oil market, and palm oil may be affected [2]. - Market sentiment and trading opportunities: The market has different views on the palm oil production in Malaysia this year. If the production in July - August maintains a good yield per unit, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure in August - September. If the inventory in Malaysia does not exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have digested the high - point inventory. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room for correction, but attention should be paid to the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production in July - August [2][3]. - Sales area analysis: Except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil. The reconstruction of channel inventory is in progress. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is difficult to exceed 2.3 million tons. The current fundamentals in the producing areas are not sufficient to stimulate China to open commercial profits, and the bean - palm spread is difficult to return to par [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean oil - International situation: Good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive up the price of US soybeans [4]. - Domestic situation: The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation. Although the domestic apparent demand for pick - up is poor, oil mills are actively exporting. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is potential for the spread between months and the Brazilian premium to rise, and soybean oil may benefit [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Futures prices: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,274 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,524 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 0.72%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 53.90 cents/pound, down 3.61% [8]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,707,492 lots, a decrease of 767,521 lots; the open interest was 394,141 lots, a decrease of 62,307 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 47,548 lots; the open interest was 499,756 lots, a decrease of 4,882 lots [8]. - Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, down 4.8%; the bean - palm 09 spread was 363 yuan/ton, up 19.7%. The palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 350%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton, up 20%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 58 yuan/ton, up 3.57% [8]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 570 lots, an increase of 570 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 3,000 lots, a decrease of 18,495 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, with no change [8]. 3.4 Oil Fundamental Information - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high [10][13]. - Export and import: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1.289727 million tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 330,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 640,000 tons [13][15]. - Other indicators: The POGO spread rebounded significantly, the import profit of Indian palm oil started to improve, and the basis of palm oil (South China) for 09 was - 20, while the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) rebounded [11][13][15].