品渥食品（300892.SZ）12月26日在投资者互动平台表示，公司主要产品为国外进口，人民币升值会降 低产品采购的单价，对公司的业绩有正面影响，公司国外采购占比90%以上，具体数据已在定期报告中 披露。 （记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问贵公司作为A股"进口食品第一股"，目前公司进口 业务占比多少？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, surpassing the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 4.6%. This appreciation positively impacts the chemical industry, particularly oil-head refining enterprises, by reducing import costs and enhancing profit margins [1][2]. Company Analysis - Rongsheng Petrochemical, a major player in the oil-head refining sector, has a high sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations due to its reliance on imported crude oil, which constitutes approximately 50%-90% of its total costs. The company benefits from a "more variety, less oil" strategy to increase the proportion of high-value-added products, leading to improved profit margins with RMB appreciation [1][2]. - The company operates the world's largest integrated refining project with a capacity of 40 million tons per year and has significant production capacities for PX and PTA, positioning it as a leader in the chemical sector [2]. - If the crude oil procurement price is estimated at $60 per barrel, a 3% appreciation in the RMB could save Rongsheng Petrochemical approximately 1 billion RMB in costs per quarter, potentially increasing annual profits by up to 4 billion RMB [2]. Industry Overview - The domestic demand for chemical raw materials is steadily recovering, with prices for downstream products like PX and PTA continuing to rise, creating a favorable environment characterized by "declining costs and product premiums" [2]. - Major refining enterprises are seen as having significant price elasticity, with RMB appreciation further amplifying their profit potential, making them attractive low-position assets for incremental capital [2]. - The recent increase in trading activity in the A-share market, coupled with RMB appreciation, has led to accelerated foreign investment in core assets, supporting the upward price trends of major oil-head refining companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hengyi Petrochemical [2].

东莞证券表示，人民币适度升值对中国股市总体形成积极利好。这一走势有助于提升人民币资产的整体 吸引力，进一步提振市场投资需求。。对于关注汇兑收益的境外机构投资者而言，他们既能赚取资产增 值收益，又能获得汇率升值带来的红利，从而实现双重收益。这种效应有望推动中国股市获得持续增量 资金流入，增强市场活力与稳定性，为资本市场长期发展提供支持。 中证1000ETF（159845）紧密跟踪中证1000指数。中证1000指数由全部A股中剔除中证800指数成份股 后，规模偏小且流动性好的1000只股票组成，综合反映中国A股市场中一批小市值公司的股票价格表 现。 行业表现来看，中证1000ETF前几大重仓行业中，电子下跌0.13%，电力设备上涨1.78%，医药生物下跌 0.05%，计算机上涨1.25%，机械设备上涨0.63%。 资金面来看，中证1000ETF（159845）近五个交易日资金净流入9.91亿元，近十个交易日净流入24.5亿 元。最新规模达490.01亿元，近一个月规模增长43.18亿。今日盘中成交额7.62亿元，近一周日均成交高 达14.12亿元，流动性较好。 近日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会第四季度会议认为，要 ...

12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0大关，最高触及6.9963，为2024年9月以来首次。今年以来，离岸人民币对美 元汇率累计升值达4.6%。在岸人民币对美元即期汇率逼近"7"关口，年内累计升值4%。汇率破7之后，此前滞留海 外的企业盈余加速结汇，将进一步推动升值和热钱流入。 宝丰能源是煤头路线的代表，公司的煤化工基地集中在宁夏和内蒙，通过"煤制甲醇→甲醇制烯烃"工艺路线，生 产聚烯烃等高附加值产品。据了解，宝丰能源原料以国内煤炭为主，进口依赖度极低，而国内煤炭价格相对稳 定，且公司拥有自有煤矿，成本控制能力较强，因此人民币升值对宝丰能源利润影响十分有限，可忽略不计。 卫星化学：气头路线龙头，汇率敏感度中 气头路线以乙烷、丙烷等轻烃为主要原料，目前国内部分企业高度依赖乙烷进口，部分需要丙烷进口，对汇率敏 感程度中度敏感，取决于企业进口比例。 化工行业根据原料来源不同，主要分为三种工艺路线，分别为油头路线、煤头路线和气头路线，这三种路线在成 本结构、盈利模式和汇率敏感度方面存在显著差异。 荣盛石化：油头路线龙头，汇率敏感度高 油头路线是化工行业的主流路线，以原油(石脑油)为主要原料，通过蒸汽裂解、催化裂解等 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监证可【2012】31号 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.26 | -0.24 | DR007 | 1.48 | 10.14 | | | GC001 | 1.35 | -41.50 | GC007 | 1.87 | -1.00 | | S | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 | 1年期国债 | 1.28 | -0.70 | 5年期国债 | 1.58 | -0.20 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | -3.90 | 10年期美债 | 4.13 | 0.00 | | 2 | | | | | | | 回顾: 央行昨日开展了1771亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for RMB appreciation, PPI recovery, and foreign capital inflow, highlighting the potential positive impacts on the economy and investment landscape [2] Group 1: RMB Appreciation - The article indicates that the RMB is expected to appreciate due to various economic factors, which could enhance the purchasing power of consumers and businesses [2] - It notes that a stronger RMB may lead to increased imports and reduced export competitiveness, impacting trade balances [2] Group 2: PPI Recovery - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to recover, suggesting a potential increase in manufacturing profitability and overall economic growth [2] - The recovery in PPI is seen as a positive signal for industrial sectors, indicating improved demand and pricing power [2] Group 3: Foreign Capital Inflow - The article highlights an anticipated increase in foreign capital inflow, driven by favorable economic conditions and investment opportunities in China [2] - It suggests that this inflow could support domestic markets and enhance liquidity, benefiting various sectors [2]

离岸人民币兑美元汇率一举升破7.0关口，创下2024年9月以来新高。这一变化不仅刷屏财经圈，更与每个普通人的钱包息息相关。人民币为何大幅升值？未 来走势如何？普通人该如何应对？一文说清！ 美元走弱成主因 美联储降息预期升温，美元指数跌破100，带动非美货币普遍升值。市场对2026年美联储继续降息的押注，进一步削弱美元吸引力。 中国经济韧性支撑 出口超预期增长、贸易顺差扩大至1万亿美元，叠加资本市场对国际资本的吸引力增强，为人民币提供基本面支撑。 年末结汇潮推波助澜 外贸企业年底集中将美元收入兑换成人民币，短期需求激增加速汇率上行。 1. 换汇成本大降，留学生家庭迎来利好 2. 美元存款"倒亏钱"，理财需谨慎 留学、旅游更省钱：当前换10万美元比6月节省约1.7万元，赴美留学、旅游开支显著降低。 海淘党狂喜：进口商品价格下降，电子产品、奢侈品性价比提升。 杭州张凯年初存8400美元，到期后人民币计价反亏1033元；购买美国国债的收益也被汇率波动吞噬。 建议：持有美元资产者可考虑分批换回人民币，或配置黄金、A股等对冲风险。 人民币购买力提升，核心城市房产、黄金等抗通胀资产可能吸引更多资金流入。 注意：央行强调"房 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Chinese Yuan (RMB)** and its appreciation against the US Dollar and other currencies, highlighting macroeconomic factors and seasonal trends affecting the currency's value [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation**: Since August, the RMB has appreciated by **2.3%**, with the US Dollar's weakness contributing **1.6%** and active appreciation from China contributing **0.7%**. This indicates that both external and internal factors are driving the RMB's rise [1][3]. - **End-of-Year Trends**: Historically, the end of the year is a period when the RMB tends to appreciate due to increased demand for currency exchange as companies prepare for the new fiscal year. This seasonal trend has been observed in previous years, except for 2024 [4][5]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The current appreciation is not merely a short-term seasonal effect but may signal the beginning of a long-term trend. Factors such as improvements in the Chinese macroeconomy and ongoing global monetary easing, particularly in the US, are expected to support the RMB's strength [6][8]. - **Impact on Exports**: The rise in the RMB is not expected to significantly hinder Chinese exports. The trade surplus with major partners does not rely on currency depreciation or deflation, but rather on internal competition among Chinese firms [7]. - **Future Drivers**: In the coming year, several factors could influence the RMB's trajectory, including improvements in the Chinese economy, the breaking of capital outflow cycles, continued US monetary easing, and rising commodity prices. However, potential global economic changes or domestic policy adjustments could also impact this trend [8]. Additional Important Content - **Labor Productivity and Exchange Rate**: There is a historical correlation between labor productivity growth and nominal effective exchange rates. China's labor productivity has outpaced global averages over the past 20 years, but recent internal competition and investment issues have suppressed this relationship. A potential recovery in productivity by 2025 could help restore the nominal effective exchange rate to reasonable levels [2][9].

周五不要期待八连阳了，需要关注两个重要事项。 除此之外，锂电、光伏等反内卷方向也不容忽视。尽管目前这些领域并不被市场看好，但在商业航天板 块出现分歧的时候，这些超跌的板块可能会迎来短线的折腾机会，投资者可以适当关注。 总之，市场在周五可能会出现一些变化，投资者需要保持谨慎，合理调整投资策略，抓住潜在的投资机 会。 首先，不要被指数缩量的情况所误导。今天市场没有外资参与，成交量受到一定影响。如果按照平时北 向资金每天2000亿以上的量能来估算，今天的真实成交量应该可以达到2万亿以上。由此可见，今天的 市场势头依然强劲。然而，目前市场对盘面冲击4000点上方新高的预期过于一致，这种一致性很容易被 量化交易或AI语料捕捉并进行反向操作，尤其是在尾盘阶段，投资者需要格外警惕。 其次，有一个明牌方向正变得越来越强劲，那就是人民币升值带来的利好。人民币升值对造纸业有直接 的积极影响，同时也会利好跨境电商、能源金属、多元金融等多个相关分支领域。即使投资者没有参与 商业航天板块的博弈，也没有关系。汇率升值这一方向仍会反复被市场炒作，存在不少机会。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market remains active, with major indices continuing to rise, driven by the commercial aerospace sector [1] - The recent upward trend in the A-share market is attributed to three main factors: expectations of overseas liquidity easing, continuous appreciation of the RMB, and anticipation of a spring market rally [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has broken the important 7.0 level for the first time since September 2024, positively impacting the Chinese stock market [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above the five-day moving average, suggesting a bullish short-term outlook [2] - The performance of various sectors shows strength in aerospace, robotics, and wind power equipment, while precious metals and automotive sectors lag behind [2] - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, influenced by macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments [2]