近期，各大公司将陆续发布2024年年报。而我乐家居、顶固集创已率先于19、20日发布正式年报。家居新范式联想已发业绩预告的几家企业发现，作为定 制家居行业的典型代表，8家上市公司去年几乎面临了相似的业绩困局，普遍营收净利双降，下滑程度也是近十年来罕见的。那各家都在想哪些应对办 法，后市预估如何？ | 品牌简称 | 净利润 | 同比变化 | 营业收入 | 同比变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧派家居 | 23.34~26.08亿元 | 減少5%~15% | 182.26~205.04 亿元 | 減少10%~20% | | 索菲亚 | 家居新 西式 13.24~14.5亿元 | 5%~15% | 104.9~116.66 亿元 | 減少10%~0% | | 尚品宅配 | 亏损1.8~2.2亿元 | 上年盈利 6484.54万元 | HOFUR 家居新正式 | | | 志邦家居 | 4.35亿元 | -26.86% | 55.97亿元 | -8.49% | | 家居葡 已式 好莱客 | 0.68~0.90万元 | 减少 | | | | | | 58.57%~68.70% ...

Core Insights - The "National Subsidy" policy is driving domestic smartphone manufacturers to penetrate the high-end market, but it raises concerns about potential preemption of consumer spending in the latter half of the year [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "National Subsidy" policy has led to increased smartphone sales in the 2000-6000 yuan price range, with expectations of a 5% year-on-year growth in overall market GMV [2][5] - Initial effects of the subsidy were strong during the Spring Festival, but demand weakened in late February and March due to early consumption and limited appeal of the policy [3][6] - The 4000 yuan and above segment is experiencing significant growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of over 20% this year [5][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Over 60% of consumers are opting for "upgraded" products, while 20-30% are choosing to purchase products at a similar price point due to the subsidy [3][5] - The shift in consumer preferences indicates a willingness to spend slightly more for better products, reflecting a trend towards higher-end devices [5][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Companies are adjusting their product strategies, with OPPO launching new high-end models and expanding its product matrix to capture the growing market share in the premium segment [5][6] - The competition in the high-end smartphone market is intensifying, with expectations that China will surpass the U.S. in shipments of devices priced above 600 USD by 2025 [6][7] Group 4: Ecosystem Development - The establishment of a robust ecosystem around smartphones is becoming increasingly important, with companies like Xiaomi and Huawei leveraging their ecosystems to enhance customer retention [7][8] - OPPO is focusing on a more cautious ecosystem strategy, emphasizing the integration of AI technologies and related products to enhance user experience [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" policy aims to benefit consumers, but issues in the return and after-sales processes are undermining its positive impact [1][2][3] Group 1: Issues with "National Subsidy" Returns - Consumers have reported that their "National Subsidy" qualifications are not returned after product returns, leading to complaints about after-sales service [1] - Problems include platforms replacing the expected 20% government subsidy with small discount coupons and complications arising from the use of virtual currency during refunds [1][2] - The China Consumers Association has highlighted that issues related to "National Subsidy" after-sales processes have become a major complaint area, indicating a need for regulation [1] Group 2: Impact on Consumer Behavior - The inability to return "National Subsidy" qualifications can discourage consumers from making purchases, contradicting the policy's intent to stimulate consumption [2] - Consumers are more likely to replace appliances and home decor due to the "National Subsidy," but after-sales issues create a negative perception [2] - Trust and support from consumers are essential for businesses and platforms, and any manipulation of the subsidy undermines this relationship [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Regions like Hunan and Shanghai have established clear guidelines for returning subsidy qualifications, which could serve as a model for other areas [3] - There is a call for automatic restoration of subsidy qualifications for transactions that are not completed, as well as clearer regulations regarding price protection for subsidized products [3] - The effectiveness of the "National Subsidy" policy in benefiting consumers and stimulating consumption depends on fair and transparent after-sales rules [3]