Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices will maintain range - bound consolidation [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory is accumulating. However, due to the low LME zinc inventory overseas, the LME 0 - 3 shifting to a back structure, and high capital concentration, LME zinc has been rising. In the short term, Shanghai zinc may show a strong - side consolidation under the influence of external markets and macro - sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Data - **Lead**: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 1,994 dollars/ton, down 0.47%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 5.94% to 42,223 hands, and the open interest increased by 0.95% to 51,504 hands [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,325 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,865.5 dollars/ton, up 1.15%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.03% to 125,688 hands, and the open interest decreased by 7.34% to 107,662 hands [1]. Market News - **Lead**: A small - and - medium - sized lead - zinc mine project in Qinghai completed its 10 - day autumn maintenance, and production resumed in August. On September 1st, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.47 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 686 hands to 160,389 hands [1]. - **Zinc**: Since September 1st, many galvanized sheet plants in Hebei have been on holiday due to the approaching National Day, and the resumption time is undetermined. Some plants in other regions have chosen to conduct maintenance or stop production due to vehicle transportation restrictions. On September 1st, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 14.98 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,018 hands to 192,517 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and the operating rate has declined slightly. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion. The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Zinc**: Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased to 93.75 dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing. However, due to the off - season and environmental protection restrictions in the north, some downstream industries' operating rates have weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, concerns about government fiscal conditions have intensified, leading to multi - year high yields on UK and French government bonds, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rebound in the US dollar. The global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US and the increased expectation of US monetary easing have reduced short - term external risks and increased domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. [2] - For different assets: the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised; the black commodity sector is expected to be slightly weaker in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; the energy and chemical sector is expected to rebound in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, concerns about government finances have led to high bond yields in the UK and France, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rise in the US dollar. A US federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs and the assessment of Trump's tariff policy have cooled global risk appetite. In China, the August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as communications, electronics, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. Policy support and reduced external risks have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] - **Government Bonds**: Government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised. [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume. Real - world demand continued to weaken, but there may be a seasonal improvement in September - October. Supply remained high, with the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in August at 2.115 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase, and a 4% increase in steel inventories. Although supply may decline temporarily due to production restrictions, steel mills are likely to resume production next week. Coke price increases were blocked and instead decreased. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, and the futures price oscillated. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand decreased, and they mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. Last week, the pig iron output was over 2.4 million tons but decreased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The supply of mainstream Australian powder was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The port inventory decreased slightly by 120,000 tons. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices were weak. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with new high - silicon production this month and planned new capacity in October. Ningxia's production was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon iron profits were compressed, electricity costs provided support, and producers were reluctant to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. Last week, the weekly production of soda ash decreased. With new capacity coming online, supply pressure remained, and the oversupply situation persisted, with new installations planned for the fourth quarter. Demand was stable week - on - week, but overall support from downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week, and the industry was in a loss. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [8] - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the main glass contract oscillated. Last week, glass production was stable, with an increase in the start - up rate and the number of production lines. Terminal real estate demand remained weak, but downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand was stable. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply and limited demand growth. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Tuesday, concerns about the UK economy and rising global bond yields led to a rise in the UK's long - term borrowing costs and a fall in the pound against the US dollar. With the decline of factors such as export rush, over - installation in the photovoltaic industry, and the diminishing marginal effect of the trade - in policy, domestic copper demand will weaken. However, the expected Fed rate cut in September may boost copper prices temporarily. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of aluminum rose slightly but fell slightly at the end of the session, with a decrease in open interest of 7,398 lots. Aluminum inventory increased to 623,000 tons, exceeding the previous expectation of 600,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,450 tons, reaching a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside potential of aluminum prices is limited, but in the short term, there is still a peak - season expectation, and there is no strong downward driver, so it is expected to oscillate. The recent rise in gold prices may have a limited positive impact on copper and aluminum prices. [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing slowly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. [10] - **Tin**: The combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some smelters in Yunnan were under maintenance, and the supply of tin ore was tight in reality but expected to ease. The import of African tin ore decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. Terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9,161 tons last week. As prices rose, downstream procurement slowed down. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 fell 4.3% to a settlement price of 74,180 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest of 19,567 lots to a total of 761,400 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,250 yuan/ton, a 1,750 - yuan decrease. The price of Australian lithium spodumene was 860 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene was 50 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract 2511 rose 1.13% to a settlement price of 8,515 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 12,531 lots to 491,200 lots. The price of oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The futures price was at a discount of 630 yuan/ton. The price difference between 421 and 553 in East China was 300 yuan/ton. With polysilicon prices oscillating at a high level, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 rose 3.97% to a settlement price of 51,985 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 8,457 lots to 318,000 lots. The price of N - type polysilicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, a 1,000 - yuan increase. The price of P - type cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of N - type silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece, a 0.01 - yuan increase. The price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) was 0.292 yuan/watt, unchanged. The price of N - type modules (centralized): 182mm was 0.66 yuan/watt, unchanged. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870, a decrease of 10 lots. Rumors of a "industry restructuring plan" by GCL Technology have increased market expectations of capacity integration. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Technical buying and supply disruptions drove the rebound of crude oil prices, with the largest increase since the end of July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have affected crude oil supply, and the US will study sanctions on Russia this week. The Cushing inventory is still low. However, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production decision this Sunday. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt futures price also increases, driven by cost factors in the short term. Currently, asphalt is still weak, with a slightly decreasing basis. The social inventory has not decreased significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. Profits have recovered slightly, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and the follow - up increase of asphalt prices needs to be monitored. [15] - **PX**: Although crude oil prices are rising, the increase in downstream petrochemical products is limited. The low start - up rate of PTA has kept the PX price weak, supported only by maintenance plans. The PX supply is still tight, with the PXN spread decreasing slightly to 251 US dollars and the PX foreign price rebounding to 848 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA installations. [15] - **PTA**: Recently, the start - up rate of PTA has dropped to a seasonal low due to environmental protection requirements and low processing fees. The high basis has weakened, and the processing fee has recovered, indicating a high possibility of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed down, with a downstream start - up rate of only 89.8%. PTA is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to problems with overseas installations, the import forecast has been low recently, leading to a significant decrease in port inventory to 440,000 tons. The load of syngas - based production units is already high, and there is limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry's capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is relatively limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream start - up rates and crude oil cost fluctuations. [16] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose with the sector but then declined slightly. The overall strength of the polyester sector is still insufficient. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and the start - up rate of short - fiber has rebounded slightly, with a limited increase in inventory. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous recovery of terminal orders. In the medium term, short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies. [16] - **Methanol**: The restart of inland installations and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. As the port price falls, the reflux window has opened, providing some support to the spot market. MTO installations are planned to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching, indicating a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [17] - **PP**: The start - up rate of PP installations has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, resulting in a record - high weekly supply. The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but demand growth is weak. Although there is policy support, the downside is limited. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [17] - **LLDPE**: Currently, maintenance has relieved some supply pressure, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, with a decrease in inventory. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as maintenance ends and supply recovers, pressure will increase, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The price is expected to oscillate. [17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1,040.00, a decrease of 14.50 or 1.38% (settlement price: 1,041.00). As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The pod - setting rate was 94%, and the leaf - falling rate was 11%. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans as of August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons, higher than the market expectation. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume has reached 49.763188 million tons, higher than the same period last year. [19] - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, the increase in imported soybean sales and the high procurement and start - up rate of oilseeds in the third quarter have increased the inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The rapeseed meal market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada. [20] - **Oils**: Overnight, the CBOT soybean oil futures price rose by 1% due to the decline in soybean oil inventory. The BMD palm oil futures price may open higher, supported by strong palm oil exports from Malaysia and a weakening ringgit. According to high - frequency data, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) and 30.53% (SGS) in August 2025 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, and the tax rate will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. [20] - **Corn**: New - season corn has started to be harvested in Liaoning, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The futures market has rebounded recently, which is beneficial to market sentiment. This year, there is no pressure from a large - scale arrival of corn at ports, and the inventory at ports and downstream enterprises is low. The estimated cost of new - season corn in North China is 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it is at least 2,100 yuan/ton. Referring to the policy - supported wheat market, it is expected that during the new - season corn harvest period, farmers will be reluctant to sell when the price in North China is below 2,220 yuan/ton and in the northern ports is below 2,130 yuan/ton, and traders will be more willing to store corn. It is estimated that the opening price of the main C2511 contract may be slightly higher than last year, and if there are no unexpected weather risks during the harvest, the main operating range of the opening - price market may be 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton. [21] - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. In August, large - scale farms increased pre

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with cement dispatch volumes declining again, indicating weak demand[15] - Industrial production is at a historically high level but has marginally decreased compared to the previous two weeks[24] - Construction demand has turned negative year-on-year, with rebar and building materials demand falling to historical lows[31] Prices - Domestic industrial prices are fluctuating weakly due to limited demand-side support, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining[45] - International commodity prices are volatile, with gold prices showing a strong upward trend amid expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[42] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a 33% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks[63] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing year-on-year changes of -3%, +17%, and +19% respectively[68] Exports - August exports are expected to grow by approximately 5% to 7%, with a model indicating a 5.5% increase[71] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with the R007 and DR007 both at 1.52% as of August 31[76] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 13,759 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[78]

Group 1 - The company, Guolin Technology (300786), responded to investor inquiries on September 1, indicating that its stock price in the secondary market is influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, industry policies, market sentiment, and company performance [1]

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 36 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数延续扩张态势，显示中国经济修复基础正在加 固，结构性分化有所加深。投资景气指数持续扩张，在政策驱动和资金支持 下，基建与制造业投资稳步推进，成为稳增长的坚实力量；生产景气指数仍强 劲扩张，尽管增速较上周略有回落，但仍处于较高水平，体现出产能利用率和 产业链供给的良好韧性，供给端对整体经济构成有力支撑。相比之下，消费景 气指数短期回落至收缩区间，但仍接近荣枯线。出口景气指数小幅收缩整体平 稳，显示在复杂外部环境下外贸仍具较强适应力和结构优势。总体而言，本周 经济运行继续保持扩张态势，投资与生产成为关键支撑，消费和出口虽有波动 但潜力犹存，叠加政策持续发力，经济有望在稳中向好中积蓄新的增长动能。 2025 年 7 月，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长 0.9%，1—7 月累计增长 2.3%，整体运行持续改善，盈利修复态势延续。当月企业利润降幅进一步收 窄，同比下降 1.5%，毛利润由降转增。制造业利润增长 6.8%，其中原材料行业 实现由降转升，钢铁和石油加工扭亏为盈，消费品制造业降幅明显收窄。高技 术制造业利润大幅增长 18 ...

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" policy is characterized by administrative directives or legal measures to limit production capacity in upstream industries, while downstream industries rely on self-discipline to reduce competition [1][45]. - The "anti-involution" phenomenon began with the concentration of orders in mid-2020, leading to capacity expansion until mid-2021, followed by a decline in global demand in the second half of 2021 and subsequent recovery of supply [1][45]. - Industrial enterprises experienced a dual decline in revenue and profit in 2022, but began to exchange price for volume in 2023, resulting in increased revenue but decreased profitability [1][45]. Group 2 - The report categorizes industries based on revenue quality, revenue capability, and asset quality, leading to three classifications: stable allocation, opportunistic allocation, and cautious allocation [2][46]. - Stable allocation industries are those with consistently rising revenue profit margins, while opportunistic allocation includes industries with rising revenue growth but declining profit margins, excluding those with significantly rising debt ratios [2][46]. - Cautious allocation includes industries with rising revenue but declining profit margins and increasing debt ratios, as well as those with both declining revenue and profit margins [2][46]. Group 3 - The report outlines three convertible bond strategies: stable allocation, opportunistic allocation, and cautious allocation, each with two different bond portfolios [3]. - The performance of these portfolios from 2022 to 2024 indicates that stable allocation portfolios performed better, while opportunistic allocation showed a larger decline in 2022 but outperformed cautious allocation in 2023 and 2024 [4]. - From 2025 onwards, the performance of different portfolios needs to be observed in two phases, with the first half of 2025 showing good performance for opportunistic allocation and cautious allocation portfolios [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong, but no specific overall industry investment rating is provided [1] Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak season and positive domestic and international macro - economic trends, the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Catalog Price Data - This week, the spot premium first declined and then increased, and it is expected to remain firm next week [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation was limited this week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.33 per ton week - on - week to - $41.48 per ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the copper concentrate inventory at nine ports increased by 148,800 tons week - on - week to 710,600 tons [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [20] - Due to increased maintenance in September and a shortage of anode plate supply, the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline by more than 4% month - on - month [22] - In July, the net import of refined copper in China was 178,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [24] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week [26] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week, with weak orders and pick - ups, and it is expected to rebound next week [29] - From August 1st to 24th, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 6% year - on - year [32] - Production is based on demand, and the component output in August changed little month - on - month [33] - The planned production volume of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual volume of the same period last year [35] Macroeconomic Data - The manufacturing PMI in August increased by 0.1 points month - on - month, and the business climate improved [40] - The year - on - year increase of the US core PCE price index in July reached 2.9%, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact is still controllable [41] - The annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3% [44]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.3% and 50.5% respectively, both showing increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from last month [1][2] Market Price Trends - The overall market price index for manufacturing continues to improve, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, both rising for three consecutive months [2] - The increase in procurement volume index to 50.4% reflects a recovery in market demand, while the improvement in price indices indicates a stabilization in market competition [2] Financial Services Performance - The business activity index for the financial services sector remains above 50%, indicating expansion, with both the banking and capital market services showing strong performance [3] - The new order index for financial services also reflects positive trends, supporting the overall stability of the economy [3] Consumer Activity Insights - The transportation and entertainment sectors show strong performance, with indices for railway and air transport remaining above 59%, indicating active consumer travel [4] - The accommodation and catering sectors have also seen significant increases in their business activity indices, with notable month-on-month improvements [4][5] Future Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index indicates a continued expansion in production activities, with manufacturing expectations improving to 53.7% [6] - Positive internal and external factors are expected to support economic growth, including the easing of extreme weather conditions and ongoing trade negotiations [6][7] - Policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth are anticipated to inject new momentum into the economy, particularly in emerging sectors like artificial intelligence [7]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.3% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points [1][3] - The overall economic climate in China continues to expand, with expectations for sustained release of domestic demand potential in September and the fourth quarter [1][11] Manufacturing Sector - In August, various sub-indices within the manufacturing sector, including production, new orders, and procurement volume, showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 1.8 percentage points, while the inventory and employment indices saw slight declines [3][10] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have also improved, with indices at 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, marking a continuous rise for three months [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has stabilized above 50%, with new orders showing a slight increase, indicating a stable operational environment [5] - The financial services sector, including banking and capital markets, has shown strong performance, with business activity indices above 60% [5][4] Consumer Activity - The hospitality and restaurant sectors have seen significant increases in their business activity indices, with both indices rising over 5 percentage points compared to the previous month [6] - Transportation sectors, including rail and air travel, have maintained high activity levels, with indices above 59% [7] Emerging Industries - The information services sector, particularly telecommunications and internet services, is experiencing robust growth, with business activity indices above 55% [8] - The ongoing "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to further enhance the application scenarios and development potential of the information services industry [8] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the macroeconomic environment will continue to improve, with stable recovery in manufacturing demand and expansion in production activities [11][12] - The impact of recent policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth, including support for new industrialization and carbon market development, is expected to inject new momentum into the economy [12]