Group 1 - The primary concern of the current macroeconomic environment is the persistently low price levels [1] - The low price levels are attributed to structural issues on the demand side, such as the decline in real estate investment, and more significantly, complex supply-side shocks [1] - China is experiencing a "good" supply shock driven by technological advancements and economies of scale, leading to a nearly 90% increase in overall labor productivity over the past decade [1] Group 2 - The costs of new production modes, represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells, have significantly decreased [1] - This decrease in costs reflects the potential for new production models in the industry [1]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in investment sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%, while retail sales total monthly year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to fall by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 11, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 4, 2025, is 2.19%, compared to the actual yield of 1.64%[19]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal, iron ore, and poly - silicon, while the top three decliners were rapeseed, TSR 20, and Chinese jujube [13][14][15]. - For coking coal, supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with short - term fluctuations [18][23]. - For crude oil, low - inventory and geopolitical concerns drive the price up, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - For lithium carbonate, supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal (up 3.8% with 1.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), iron ore (up 2.4% with 1.3% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and poly - silicon (up 2.1% with 19.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [13][15]. - The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 1.8% with 17.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), TSR 20 (down 1.2% with 5.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Chinese jujube (down 1.1% with 5.6% month - on - month increase in open interest) [14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Coking Coal (焦煤) - On July 3, coking coal increased by 3.8% to 856 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern, with short - term fluctuations predicted [18][23]. - The central conference improved market sentiment. Some coal mines in Shanxi may suspend or limit production, while others are resuming production, but the overall supply recovery is slow. Import customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is low, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal is about to be lowered [19][20][23]. - Coke output is stable with a slight decrease, and rising costs squeeze coke enterprises' profits, with an expected further decline in the operating rate. Short - term rigid demand exists, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and upstream coal mines are destocking [21][23]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On July 3, crude oil increased by 1.6% to 506.3 yuan/barrel. Low - inventory and geopolitical concerns are the triggers for the price rise, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - OPEC's production in June increased by 360,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.801 million barrels per day, with several countries including Saudi Arabia increasing production [27][29]. - The EIA inventory report shows an increase in total petroleum inventories. Also, due to the heatwave in Europe, there is an expectation of increased demand for oil - fired power generation [28][29]. 3.1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂) - On July 3, lithium carbonate increased by 0.9% to 64080 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. - Market sentiment is positive, with good demand production schedule expectations and low warehouse receipts. Supply shows a month - on - month increase in weekly output, domestic lithium mine production grows, but imported lithium salts may decline. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan [34][37][38]. - From January to June, domestic cathode material production maintained growth. July is a traditional off - season, but demand production schedule expectations are good, and leading enterprises show signs of purchasing. Social inventories accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventories are destocked, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions at highs [35][36][38]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观新闻) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to reports of the US President planning to visit China with a business delegation, stating no information to provide but hoping for joint efforts to promote China - US economic and trade relations [40][41]. - China's Caixin Services PMI for June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, with the prosperity level declining to the lowest since Q4 2024 [40][41]. - The US government lifted export restrictions on EDA to China, canceling some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software [40][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic stability continues, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources like gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. The June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there are still structural concerns due to tariff policies and cautious consumer expectations. The ISM manufacturing PMI in June slightly rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. May's job vacancies reached a high level, and core durable goods orders surged [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's manufacturing PMI has increased for two consecutive months, with production and demand both warming up. However, the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new ones. The real estate market is in a weak state after the "small spring", and infrastructure physical work has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a surge at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Abroad, inflation expectations have flattened, and economic growth expectations have improved [8]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures may fluctuate upward, stock index options should focus on hedging, and treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment, and gold and silver prices will fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The freight rate of container shipping to Europe will fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly. Most varieties, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, will fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weak demand coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like zinc may decline, while others will fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Affected by extreme weather in Europe, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like crude oil may decline, while others will fluctuate or rise [10]. - **Agriculture**: Driven by the improvement of the macro - environment, agricultural products have rebounded. Most varieties will fluctuate, and some like soybean oil and short - fiber may rise [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is influenced by different factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and industry news [2][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Metals Copper - Core view: The rise of the US dollar restricts the price increase [6]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80,560 yuan with a daily increase of 0.02%; LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 dollars with a decrease of 0.58% [6]. - News: The US June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and several copper - related projects and production data were reported [6][8]. Tin - Core view: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up [9]. - Fundamental data: Shanghai tin main contract closed at 268,420 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.04%; LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 dollars with an increase of 0.66% [10]. - News: A series of macro - economic news from the US and other countries was reported [11]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Core view: For nickel, the support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upside elasticity; for stainless steel, the inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [13]. - Fundamental data: Various price and trading volume data of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot are provided [13]. - News: There are news about potential export restrictions, new production projects, and production resumptions in the nickel industry [13][14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: The inventory accumulation pattern continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [19]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are presented [20]. - News: The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and there were rumors about lithium salt factory overhauls [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Core view: For industrial silicon, the sentiment is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation is magnified; for polysilicon, market news is fermenting, and the disk fluctuation intensifies [23][24]. - Fundamental data: A wide range of data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and inventories are provided [24]. - News: Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase [26]. Iron and Steel Products - Core view: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are boosted by macro - sentiment and are in a strong - side shock [28][29]. - Fundamental data: Price, trading volume, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot are given [29]. - News: Steel production, inventory, and demand data, as well as relevant economic policies, are reported [30][31]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Core view: Both are in wide - range shocks [32]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are provided [32]. - News: Price quotes and production reduction news of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are reported [33]. Coke and Coking Coal - Core view: The anti - involution signal is fermenting, and both are in a strong - side shock [35]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of coke and coking coal are provided [35]. - News: Quotes of coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data are reported [35][36]. Power Coal - Core view: The daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes in a shock [39]. - Fundamental data: The previous trading data of power coal futures are provided [40]. - News: Quotes of power coal in southern ports and domestic production areas, as well as position - holding data, are reported [41]. Energy and Chemicals Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Core view: Paraxylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and it is recommended to do positive spreads on dips; for PTA, go long on PX and short on PTA; MEG is in a single - side shock market [43]. - Fundamental data: A large amount of data on futures and spot prices, trading volumes, and processing fees of PX, PTA, and MEG are provided [44]. - News: Market price and production - related news of PX, PTA, and MEG are reported [45][47]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Core view: Rubber is in a shock operation; synthetic rubber's shock operation pattern continues [49][54]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of rubber and synthetic rubber are provided [50][54]. - News: Order data of tire enterprises and inventory data of synthetic rubber - related products are reported [51][55]. Asphalt - Core view: Temporarily in a shock, pay attention to geopolitical factors [57]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data, as well as inventory and production rate data of asphalt, are provided [57]. - News: Weekly production, factory inventory, and social inventory data of asphalt are reported [69]. LLDPE - Core view: In the short term, it is in a strong - side shock [70]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of LLDPE are provided [70]. - News: There was an accident at a polyethylene plant, and supply - demand analysis and inventory data are reported [71]. PP - Core view: The spot is in a shock, and the trading is dull [74]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of PP are provided [74]. - News: The PP futures had a limited impact on the spot market, and trading was weak [75]. Caustic Soda - Core view: Pay attention to the impact of liquid chlorine [77]. - Fundamental data: Futures and spot price data of caustic soda are provided [77]. - News: Supply and demand, cost, and potential production reduction news of caustic soda are reported [78]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Related Products - Core view: Palm oil rises due to the positive sentiment of US soybean oil; soybean oil lacks driving force due to insufficient weather speculation of US soybeans; soybean meal may fluctuate; soybean No.1 is in a spot - stable and disk - shock state [5][55]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Corn, Sugar, Cotton, etc. - Core view: Corn is in a shock operation; sugar is in a range consolidation; cotton's futures price is supported by the market's optimistic sentiment [59][61][62]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text. Eggs, Pigs, and Peanuts - Core view: For eggs, the peak season is approaching, and it is difficult to increase the culling; for pigs, the short - term sentiment is strong; for peanuts, there is support at the bottom [64][65][66]. - Fundamental data: No detailed fundamental data are provided in the given text. - News: No specific news is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents comprehensive information on the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental data, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that various factors such as weather, international and domestic supply - demand, and macro - economic indicators are influencing the market [1][2][16] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and their percentage changes are provided for various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. Exchange rate data for multiple currencies are also given [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2][3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (July 7 - 11) for US soybean - producing states indicates that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be generally high. The US Midwest will have local precipitation and higher - than - normal temperatures in the middle and later part of the week [4][6] 国际供需 - Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 4880 tons, and Malaysia's is expected to be 1910 tons. Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 4210 tons, 1.2% higher than last month's estimate. India's June palm oil imports increased by 61% month - on - month. The SOPA expects a 5% reduction in India's soybean planting area [8][9][11] 国内供需 - On July 2, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 342% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the overall oil mill operating rate rose to 66.59% [13] Macro - news 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%. The US "small non - farm" data was unexpectedly negative. Other economic data such as ADP employment, Challenger enterprise layoffs, and mortgage application activity are also provided [16] 国内要闻 - On July 2, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan [18] 资金流向 - On July 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 452 million yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 2.938 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 3.39 billion yuan [21] 套利跟踪 - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, there are still structural concerns, and inflation expectations are stabilizing. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased this week [7]. - Domestic macro: China's manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, with production and demand both picking up. However, the upward drive still depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction has seen a seasonal decline in physical work volume [7]. - Asset views: China's economy remains stable, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US in June slightly rebounded to 49.0. In May, job openings rose to 7.769 million, and the job - opening rate was 4.6%. Core durable goods orders surged in May. In June, consumer confidence, current situation, and expectations all declined. This week, long - term inflation expectations were stable, short - term inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased [7]. - **Domestic**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure physical work volume has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a strong performance at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Markets - **Stock Index Futures**: Policy starts to focus on manufacturing profits, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has stabilized, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Shipping**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation for the European container shipping line, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - limit news, the market is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by emission - reduction news in Tangshan, the market declined slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coke**: Rumors have caused the market to oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by supply - demand rumors, the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Due to the decline in coal valuation, the futures price is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: With the increase in cost valuation, the market rebounds after reaching the bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Glass**: Prices in Shahe and Hubei continue to decline, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance disruptions still exist, and daily production begins to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices remain high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Alumina**: With a low number of warehouse receipts, the alumina market rises, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Aluminum and Zinc**: Aluminum prices rise due to low inventory and high premiums; zinc has an oversupply situation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation for aluminum and oscillatory decline for zinc [9]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside space for lead prices is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: Spot trading is dull, and tin prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply continues to increase, and silicon prices are under pressure to oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and there is a risk of price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitical risks, and the PG market may oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices oscillate, waiting for negative factors to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Methanol**: The port market has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - strong and demand - weak situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate weakly in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years, and the futures price should not be overly shorted, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and the cost is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Short - fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and the absolute value follows raw materials, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and PP oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Plastic**: The improvement from maintenance is limited, and plastic oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks have cooled down temporarily, and styrene prices decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. 3.2.5 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Protein Meal**: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is confirmed, the market has corrected in advance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent rainfall, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Rubber**: The strong performance of commodities has driven rubber prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market oscillates within a narrow range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the warm trading atmosphere in the financial market, pulp oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the US cotton planting area has slowed down the rise of Zhengzhou cotton prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, and sugar prices have limited upward momentum, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Timber**: The market is dominated by fundamentals again, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11].

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market has a history of over 200 years and has undergone significant changes, including the formation of the modern bond system and the internationalization post-World War II [3] - The total size of U.S. national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion by the end of 2024, nearly doubling since 2017 [4] - The trading volume of U.S. Treasuries has increased by 1.8 times over the past decade, with a diverse investor base comprising overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds [5] U.S. Treasury Supply Framework - The issuance of U.S. Treasuries follows two main principles: optimizing the issuance scale across different maturities to minimize expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance through quarterly refinancing processes [4] - The issuance is also constrained by the debt ceiling, which can lead to significant fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA), increased borrowing costs, and potential credit rating downgrades [4] U.S. Treasury Demand Framework - The trading of U.S. Treasuries primarily occurs in Tokyo, London, and New York, with a daily trading volume that reflects a robust and diverse investor structure [5] - The top three participants in the U.S. Treasury market are overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds, collectively accounting for approximately 60% of the market [5] U.S. Treasury Interest Rate Framework - Long-term U.S. Treasury rates are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums [6] - Recent data indicates that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below levels from a year ago, showing a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, with the decline in expected real rates being a primary downward driver [6] - Geopolitical issues and economic changes are expected to challenge inflation risk premiums and expected inflation, potentially reshaping the U.S. Treasury system and the international monetary landscape [6]

Economic Indicators - June PMI data shows a continued upward trend, but the rate of increase has slowed down, indicating potential economic uncertainty[6] - Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5% in May, while non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%[6] - Production and new orders PMI for June are at 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating stable demand but a slowdown in growth[6] Inventory and Orders - Raw material inventory PMI is at 48%, and finished goods inventory PMI is at 48.1%, both showing an increase[2] - New export orders PMI is at 47.7%, reflecting a slowdown in growth and indicating that indirect trade impacts from U.S. tariff exemptions are nearing their end[6] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 50.9%, while basic raw materials PMI is at 47.8%, indicating a significant increase[6] - Construction activity index for June is at 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting robust infrastructure project progress[6] Risks and Outlook - Global supply chain competition is intensifying, and external demand may change faster than expected, posing risks to economic stability[3] - The report suggests that while current macroeconomic data appears stable, ongoing policy support is necessary to sustain demand amid uncertainties[6]