Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of risk management and market understanding in trading, emphasizing that holding positions is not merely a numbers game but requires respect for the market [1][4] - The recent increase in market volatility due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has led to a significant rise in short positions among institutions, contrasting with technical analysis suggesting bullish signals [1][3] - The protagonist recalls lessons from a mentor about the significance of emotional intelligence in trading, indicating that quantitative models cannot fully capture market sentiment [1][3] Group 2 - The narrative illustrates the tension between quantitative trading strategies and the need for human judgment, as the new director dismisses concerns about reducing positions based on a quantitative model [1][3] - The protagonist applies a personal trading principle, focusing on capital flow, sentiment indicators, and maintaining a clear trading purpose, which leads to a decision to reduce exposure during market downturns [3] - The closing reflections emphasize that trading involves understanding the underlying dynamics of the market and maintaining a steadfast approach amidst fluctuations [4]

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is high, and steel prices are oscillating strongly. The glass and soda ash market transactions have improved, leading to a significant increase in the glass and soda ash futures market. The high - price sentiment in the ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese markets is strong, and the market maintains on - demand procurement [1][3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream procurement sentiment has warmed up, and spot sales have improved. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.1%, a decrease of 0.43% month - on - month. The manufacturer's inventory was 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 46,900 heavy boxes month - on - month, with significant destocking. However, the overall inventory remains high, and the destocking pressure is still large. In the long term, the glass supply - demand is still relatively loose [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. The downstream transactions were stable, mainly in a wait - and - see state. This week, the soda ash开工率 was 83.02%, a decrease of 1.28% month - on - month; the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons month - on - month; the inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 2.15% month - on - month, with obvious destocking. Currently in the summer maintenance stage, the soda ash开工率 is expected to remain at a low level. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: The ferrosilicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, and the overall price was firm. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was about 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon manganese output remained stable, the hot metal output rebounded, and the overall demand for ferrosilicon manganese maintained resilience. The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of ferrosilicon manganese. The shipment from the Australian end of manganese ore has basically recovered [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly yesterday. The market sentiment in the ferrosilicon spot market was okay, and the price of ferrosilicon was running steadily and strongly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,400 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was reported at 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The output increased month - on - month, the demand slightly decreased, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, and the price fluctuated following the sector. In the long term, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose [3] Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the overall risk level in the market is showing a mild improvement, with the risk system score rising to 49.80 from 45.39, reflecting a shift towards a more balanced market sentiment amid economic recovery and policy effects [2][3] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index valuation has increased to 55.08, indicating a rise in the overall valuation center, with certain cyclical industries experiencing higher valuation rebounds compared to consumer sectors [2] - The market expectation score has risen to 56.00, suggesting reduced pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year, while external environment fluctuations are anticipated to impact exports [3] Group 2 - The bond market risk system score stands at 73.3, with GDP growth in the first half of the year meeting market expectations, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy despite complex external conditions [9] - The second quarter's GDP growth was 5.3%, with significant contributions from final consumption and net exports, although internal demand showed signs of pressure [10][11] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests potential economic slowdown, with external demand risks and limited incremental policies expected to impact growth [12] Group 3 - The black commodity sector's risk system score has increased to 63.6, indicating a medium risk level, driven by domestic factors and significant government infrastructure investments [15] - The recent volatility in the black commodity sector is influenced by supply-side policies and large-scale infrastructure projects, although the balance of supply and demand remains a critical factor for future price stability [15]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, indicated that a swift resolution to trade tensions could enhance market sentiment and economic activity [1] Group 1 - The potential resolution of trade tensions is seen as a catalyst for improving market conditions [1] - Lagarde's comments suggest a direct link between trade stability and economic performance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Slightly Bullish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Slightly Bullish [4] 2. Core Views - The coal supply disruption has led to an increase in commodity valuations [1] - The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is optimistic, with prices continuing to rise [1] - The market sentiment for silicon alloys is positive, with prices oscillating strongly [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass and soda ash futures prices rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement of glass was cautious, while soda ash trading fluctuated with the futures market [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Glass supply is stable, but inventory remains high. In the long - term, supply and demand are relatively loose. Soda ash production is stable, but with the expected reduction in photovoltaic glass production, demand is likely to weaken, and inventory pressure is high throughout the year [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicon Alloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) - **Market Analysis**: Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon futures prices were strong yesterday. In the spot market, suppliers of silicomanganese were firm on prices, and the ferrosilicon market sentiment was positive [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Silicomanganese production is stable, and demand is resilient, but high inventory suppresses prices. Ferrosilicon production has increased, demand has slightly decreased, and inventory is at a medium - high level. The short - term coal supply disruption has increased its valuation [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The futures market was boosted by relevant policies, and there are expectations for industry capacity reduction. The caustic soda spot market had average transactions, with prices in Shandong and Guangdong decreasing. Low - concentration caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The PVC spot market had light transactions, and the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in caustic soda and temporarily observe for PVC [6]. Methanol - Inland prices fluctuated slightly. Supply had high maintenance losses in July but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season. At the port, the basis strengthened, overseas Iranian device production returned, and there will be inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to observe the market [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is less affected, but demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, while ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to improve in the short term. Short - fiber supply and demand are both weak, and bottle - chip supply - demand has improvement expectations but is still affected by high supply and inventory. Different strategies are recommended for each product [11]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline and the lack of progress in negotiations have suppressed demand expectations. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainty is the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies [16]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [24][25]. Polyolefins - The marginal profit of PP and PE is gradually recovering, and supply and demand are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. At the end of July, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to be short - biased on PP and buy within the range for PE [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted but with limited rebound space. The supply - demand of styrene is marginally repaired but still weak, and its increase is limited. Different strategies are recommended for each [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.2%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.8%. Futures prices generally rose, and basis and spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Supply**: From July 11 to July 18, the caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 2.0% [4]. - **Demand**: From July 11 to July 18, the alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased [5][6]. - **Inventory**: From July 10 to July 17, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory increased [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, and the basis and spreads changed. Regional spot prices also had different changes [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 1.28%, and the port and social inventories increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates changed, such as the MTBE operating rate increasing by 3.46% [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed slightly. PX, PTA, and other prices and spreads also had corresponding adjustments [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all had different degrees of change, and the comprehensive operating rate of polyester decreased by 0.5% [11]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 3.6% from July 14 to July 21 [11]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 23, compared with July 22, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.90%, WTI increased by 0.52%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [16]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and the spreads also changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of urea contracts generally increased, and spot prices in different regions also had small increases [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand**: From July 17 to July 18, the domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.25%, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.46% from July 11 to July 18 [24]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of L2601 and PP2601 increased, and spot prices of PP and LLDPE also increased. Spreads and basis changed significantly [29]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene and their spreads changed [31]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries also had different degrees of change [31].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on July 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Different commodities in the black series have different trends: iron ore shows a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese maintain strong - side oscillations due to persistent market sentiment; coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly; thermal coal stabilizes with oscillating as daily consumption recovers; logs oscillate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 3.06% increase. The open - interest decreased by 29,220 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore all increased. Some basis and spreads showed minor changes [4]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; for hot - rolled coils HC2510, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton with a 2.20% increase. Spot prices in different regions increased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries. Steel production and inventory data in July showed certain changes [8][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia both increased by 50 yuan/ton. Some basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [14]. - **News**: On July 21, prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions increased. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined. In June, the national manganese ore import volume decreased compared to May but increased compared to the same period last year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Oscillating strongly [2][18][19]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton with an 8.64% increase; for coke J2509, the closing price was 1,603 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton with a 5.60% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions had minor changes, and some basis and spreads changed significantly [19]. - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index on July 21 were released. Regarding the open - interest, for coking coal JM2509, long - position decreased by 8,626 lots and short - position decreased by 12,469 lots; for coke J2509, long - position increased by 358 lots and short - position increased by 74 lots [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [21]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: Stabilizing with oscillating as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes were provided. Regarding the open - interest, both long - position and short - position of the ZC2507 contract decreased by 0 lots [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different log contracts showed certain changes. Spot prices of various log products remained stable [26]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend due to political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and ongoing global geo - economic risks [3]. - Copper prices may continue to be strong in the coming week, influenced by positive US retail data, tariff expectations, and favorable tariff policies between the US, Indonesia, and Japan [14]. - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, supported by positive macro factors and low inventories [30]. - Alumina is expected to show a strong trend in the short term, driven by a significant decline in warrants and macro policies [31]. - Zinc prices will be mainly influenced by macro data and market sentiment in the short term, with supply - side disruptions also being a point of concern [60]. - The nickel industry chain may face some disturbances. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - Tin prices will likely continue to fluctuate, with the view that the upward pressure is greater than the downward support in the short term [91]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate will be strong in the market, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the long term [106]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while the polysilicon market needs to be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fundamentals are dominated by Fed policy expectations. Political uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and global geo - economic risks support the upward trend of gold prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, but various price - related data such as SHFE and SGX silver futures and spot price differences are presented [6]. Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17 but were boosted by positive US retail data and tariff expectations. They are expected to be slightly stronger in the coming week [14]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory changes [15][19][23]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macro data is positive, and low inventories support prices. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [30]. - **Alumina**: The current production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is tight. Warrants have decreased significantly, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is supported by high scrap - aluminum prices, but demand is weak in the off - season [31]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term prices are mainly affected by macro data and market sentiment [60]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on zinc futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [61][66][69]. Nickel - **Industry Chain Situation**: The nickel industry chain is affected by factors such as export restrictions, tariffs, and rainfall in the Philippines. The bottom support of nickel prices may shift, and the stainless - steel market shows some signs of improvement [73]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories [74][76]. Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. In the short term, the upward pressure is greater than the downward support due to the expected inflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand [91]. - **Market Data**: Provided daily data on tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory changes [92][96][99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: In the short term, the market is strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long term, the operating rate is expected to increase as prices rise [106]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on lithium carbonate futures prices, spreads, and inventory changes [107][113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: With positive macro - sentiment, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [115]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations have led to market speculation. Attention should be paid to the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [115]. - **Market Data**: Provided data on industrial silicon spot and futures prices, as well as prices of related products in the silicon industry chain [116][119].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - ICE cotton has rebounded due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, but the lack of obvious fundamental drivers and factors like good US cotton growth and weak global consumption prospects limit its upside potential [1][6][19]. - Domestic cotton futures have risen significantly with an expanding 9 - 1 spread, mainly driven by concerns over tight old - crop inventories. The bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market has strengthened this positive factor, showing a stronger near - term and weaker long - term trend in futures. However, the accelerated rise is more influenced by technical buying and market sentiment than fundamentals, and there is a risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [2][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.44 | 69.15 | 67.36 | 68.76 | 1.34 | 1.99 | 89187 | - 1938 | 152744 | 1339 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13880 | 14375 | 13765 | 14270 | 385 | 2.77 | 1456374 | 487140 | 580773 | 25216 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 20070 | 20600 | 19980 | 20520 | 425 | 2.11 | 39318 | 3115 | 19058 | - 3547 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Rebounded this week due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, and supported by commercial bargain - hunting [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending July 10, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts decreased by 93% week - on - week and 89% compared to the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 1.66 tons. The total signed sales volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton accounted for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume accounted for 90% of the total annual contracts [7]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: Sowing progress is slightly slower than last year. Cotton planting area as of July 11 was 9.3 million hectares. Cotton textile product exports in June decreased by 4% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year, and ready - made garment exports decreased by 13% month - on - month [8]. - **Brazil**: The US tariff increase on Brazilian goods has raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. The trading of new cotton in the 2025 season is slow, and farmers have sold about 70% of the total output [9]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is moderate. Local cotton production is expected to be between 6.5 - 7.5 million bales, and the price of new cotton in Punjab in 2025/26 is about 16,500 - 16,700 rupees per mound [9]. - **Bangladesh**: Focusing on US tariff negotiations. Cotton imports in June were 12.3 tons, lower than in May and the same period last year. The cumulative imports in the first 11 months of this year increased by 11% compared to the same period in 2023/24 [10]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending July 18, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 73%, 64%, and 62% respectively [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot Market**: Spot trading is weak, but prices have risen sharply. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and some large spinning mills locked in basis prices for better procurement on July 16 [12]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, there were 9532 registered warehouse receipts and 223 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9755 receipts, equivalent to 409,710 tons [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The price of pure - cotton yarn has continued to rise, and actual transactions are gradually following up. The profit of spinning mills has not improved significantly, and the startup rate of inland spinning mills has continued to decline. The off - season in the cotton - fabric market continues, with low startup rates, slow sales, and increasing inventory [14]. 3.3 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton needs to wait for a driver to break through the oscillation range this year. For domestic cotton, continue to monitor the profit, startup rate, and finished - product inventory of downstream textile enterprises, especially the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills. Pay attention to supply - related policies (such as reserve policies and import quota policies) and demand - related policies (such as "anti - involution" in the industrial sector). Be aware of the risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [19].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing volatility, with the Dow Jones dropping 100 points while the Chinese assets, particularly Chinese concept stocks, are surging by 2% [1][4] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has reached a five-month high at 61.8, but underlying concerns about inflation and job expectations remain [3][4] - Netflix reported strong earnings with user growth and revenue exceeding expectations, yet its stock price fell by 4%, indicating market skepticism about future growth [4][7] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is benefiting from regulatory actions that have paused aggressive price competition among food delivery platforms like Meituan and Ele.me, allowing them to focus on sustainable business practices [5][6] - The halt of the price war is seen as a positive development, enabling companies to optimize operations and improve profitability, which is reflected in rising stock prices [5][6] - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts, driven by President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, could lead to a shift in global capital flows towards Chinese assets, which are perceived as stable and undervalued [6][8] Group 3 - The recent surge in Chinese concept stocks is attributed to a combination of "negative news exhaustion" and a return to fundamental value, as these stocks are seen as undervalued with improving earnings [7][8] - The market's reaction to earnings reports, such as Netflix's, highlights the tendency for stocks to react negatively even to good news if future growth prospects are uncertain [7][8] - Investors are advised to focus on long-term trends and fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying business health [8]