Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the resilience of the Chinese economy, highlighted by steady industrial production and strong growth in new momentum industries [2] - The service sector is experiencing accelerated development, with modern service industries growing at a rate exceeding double digits [2] - Consumption policies are showing gradual effectiveness, contributing to the overall economic performance [2] Group 2 - Investment structure is optimizing, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment upgrades emerging as key highlights [2] - The article raises questions about which new momentum sectors are accelerating and where the focus for future growth will lie [2]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for August indicates a slowdown in China's economy, with key indicators falling short of market expectations, highlighting persistent supply-demand imbalances and increasing downward pressure on growth [1][4]. Group 1: Consumption - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, below the expected 3.8%, influenced by adjustments in national subsidies and the emergence of consumption loan interest subsidies [3][5]. - Commodity consumption growth declined by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6%, marking the third consecutive month of slowdown, with notable performance in upgraded goods like jewelry and sports equipment [5]. - Service consumption remained resilient, with retail sales growth slightly decreasing to 5.1%, driven by increased demand for travel and leisure activities during the summer [8][10]. Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, a significant drop of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments also declining [11][12]. - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with new construction and sales continuing to weaken, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [12][15]. - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate investment, including early issuance of local government debt limits to alleviate financial burdens [15][28]. Group 3: Trade - Export growth in August was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 7.2%, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S., which fell by 33.1% [19][21]. - Imports also slowed to a growth rate of 1.3%, with declines in energy and agricultural product imports, while trade surplus expanded to $102.33 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Group 4: Supply - Industrial production growth slowed to 5.2%, below the expected 5.7%, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances and a decline in the production of consumer goods [22]. - High-tech manufacturing sectors showed robust growth, with a 9.3% increase, while overall production faced challenges from weak domestic and external demand [22]. Group 5: Inflation - CPI inflation rose to 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, while PPI inflation improved to -2.9%, indicating some recovery in industrial prices [25][27]. - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests potential for marginal recovery in prices, supported by various favorable factors [27]. Group 6: Outlook - The economic outlook suggests a potential GDP growth rate of around 4.7% for the third quarter, with increasing pressure to stabilize growth and the likelihood of new policies to support consumption and investment [28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the stock index futures market [2]. 2. Core View Last week, the market regained its upward momentum, with the growth style showing excess performance. The core drivers of the rise were the stable policy environment after the early - month adjustment, positive news, increased dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve overseas, and improved risk appetite. Looking ahead, this week, the release of domestic economic data and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision will be key events. The potential resistance for the market approaching the phased high lies in regulatory risks. Without further risk - prevention actions, the market is expected to maintain a bullish pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, most global stock indexes rose. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.95%, the S&P 500 rose 1.59%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.03%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.82%, Germany's DAX rose 0.43%, and France's CAC 40 rose 1.96%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 4.07% and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.82% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indexes have risen. Last week, all major domestic indexes also showed an upward trend. In terms of sectors, electronics, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while comprehensive, banking, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the losses [1][8]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Positive factors include stable policy, positive news, improved geopolitical expectations, and stable US inflation data. Potential risks include regulatory risks [1][2]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach but avoid over - chasing. The core operating ranges for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are 4388 - 4614 points, 2915 - 3050 points, 6911 - 7374 points, and 7129 - 7609 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Try the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. Spot Market Review - **Industry Performance in Indexes**: In the CSI 300 index, industries showed mixed performance last week, with the information industry rising 6.81% and the pharmaceutical industry falling 1.17%. In the CSI 500 index, most industries rose, with the information industry rising 6.82% [10]. Index Valuation Tracking As of September 5, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.36 times, 13.98 times, 11.81 times, 33.25 times, and 46.19 times respectively [20][21]. Market Fundamentals Review - **Margin Trading Balance**: The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. - **Funding Rates and Central Bank Operations**: Last week, funding rates declined, and the central bank had a net injection of funds [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term, rise intraday, with an overall view of oscillation due to the coexistence of long and short factors [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term, be slightly stronger intraday, with an overall view of oscillation because of policy disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Supply**: As of the week ending September 12, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 185.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.5 million tons, still 17 million tons lower than the same period last year; the daily average output of clean coal was 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons and 6 million tons lower than the same period last year [5]. - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 113.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.32 million tons per day. Short - term demand faces some pressure due to the contraction of steel mill profits [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of coking coal has gradually stabilized after the previous "anti - involution" capacity verification. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and "stable growth" support market sentiment. The main contract of coking coal will maintain range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [5]. Coke (J) - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 113.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.32 million tons per day. Due to the implementation of coke price cuts, the latest weekly profit per ton of coke decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons per day, returning to the pre - parade production level [6]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke within the statistical scope increased slightly this week, reaching 906.24 million tons, with inventory mainly accumulating in steel mills [6]. - **Market Outlook**: With a mix of long and short factors in the market, coke will operate in a range. Attention can be paid to whether there are new positive policies for "stable growth" and "anti - involution" [6].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence driven by scale effects and high-end demand, leading to improved profitability despite overall supply-demand challenges [1][7]. Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, total wholesale passenger car sales reached 7.111 million units, up 13.0% year-on-year and 11.8% month-on-month; new energy passenger car sales were 3.629 million units, up 33.9% year-on-year and 26.3% month-on-month; exports totaled 1.401 million units, up 13.9% year-on-year and 25.1% month-on-month [1]. Revenue Performance - Sample companies in the steel sector reported revenues of 673.96 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year and 20.2% month-on-month, benefiting from increased market share and high-end product demand [1]. Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 3.70% this week, outperforming the broader market; sub-sectors included special steel up 2.06%, long products up 3.55%, and flat products up 3.90% [2]. Supply Situation - As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies was 90.2%, up 4.39 percentage points week-on-week; electric furnace utilization was 55.3%, down 0.48 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Production and Consumption - The production of five major steel products was 7.448 million tons, down 5.18 million tons week-on-week; consumption increased to 8.433 million tons, up 15.50 million tons week-on-week [2][6]. Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 10.951 million tons, up 17.41 million tons week-on-week; factory inventory was 4.195 million tons, down 3.50 million tons week-on-week [3]. Price and Profitability - As of September 12, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,489.7 yuan/ton, up 0.71 yuan/ton week-on-week; profits for rebar were -14 yuan/ton, down 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3]. Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 796 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week; the price for coking coal remained stable at 1,550 yuan/ton [4][5]. Regulatory Environment - Recent inspections highlighted issues in steel production capacity management, particularly in Shanxi, Shandong, and Shaanxi provinces, indicating a potential tightening of capacity management in the steel industry [6]. Investment Outlook - Despite challenges, the steel industry is expected to maintain stable demand supported by real estate and infrastructure investments; high-end steel products are likely to benefit from macro trends towards high-quality development [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience with a 3.70% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [10] - The report highlights that the central inspection team has pointed out issues with steel production capacity, indicating a potential tightening of supply management in the industry [3] - Despite current challenges, the demand for steel is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Situation - As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4055 million tons, which is an increase of 117,100 tons week-on-week [23] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.448 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons week-on-week [23] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.433 million tons as of September 12, an increase of 155,000 tons week-on-week [31] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 103,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.32% [31] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.951 million tons, an increase of 174,100 tons week-on-week [39] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.195 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons week-on-week [39] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,489.7 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.71 yuan/ton week-on-week [45] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [54] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [68] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is 1,770 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [68]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of high-quality development as a primary task and the need to deepen the "Three Years" activities while focusing on key regions, industries, enterprises, and products [2] - It was highlighted that the focus on steady growth should be placed on high-quality project construction, with an emphasis on improving investment efficiency and enhancing project lifecycle management [2] - The meeting called for coordinated efforts to address challenges in project construction and enterprise development, while also enhancing service quality and expanding the supply of high-quality markets [2] Group 2 - The meeting outlined the necessity of implementing various policies to stimulate consumption market vitality and ensure safety production, disaster relief, and employment increase [2] - It stressed the importance of precise scheduling, responsibility enforcement, and strengthening supervision to achieve steady growth and high-quality project construction in the third quarter [2] - The overall goal is to lay a solid foundation for completing annual targets through effective coordination and management [2]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries has been launched, focusing on maintaining reasonable growth rates and improving efficiency and structure in the context of changing external environments and internal economic adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Launching the New Plans - The previous growth stabilization plan was initiated when the industrial added value growth rate was only 3.8%, amidst pressures from domestic demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations [2]. - Currently, the industrial economy is showing a positive trend, with a 6.4% year-on-year growth in industrial added value in the first half of the year, but challenges remain due to external complexities and structural contradictions [2][4]. - The new plans aim to enhance the quality of supply, optimize the development environment, and achieve both qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth in key industries [2][6]. Group 2: Key Industries Identified - The ten key industries targeted in the growth stabilization plans include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, electric equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing [3][4]. - These industries collectively account for approximately 70% of the industrial output above designated size, indicating their critical role in stabilizing the industrial and national economy [4]. Group 3: Policy Focus Areas - The plans emphasize stimulating innovation by addressing both supply and demand sides, including enhancing technological innovation, quality standards, and promoting digital, intelligent, and green transformations [6][10]. - Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a key driver for innovation across the entire industrial chain, with specific initiatives in electronic information manufacturing and electric equipment sectors [7][8]. - The plans also propose measures to upgrade traditional consumption, expand new consumption scenarios, and promote new business models [10]. Group 4: Opportunities for Enterprises - The plans signal a shift from irrational competition to a focus on technology, quality, and brand, encouraging enterprises to develop high-value-added products [10]. - Specific guidance is provided for technological and industrial innovation, including the development of new terminal devices and support for key product innovation projects in renewable energy and smart grid equipment [10]. - Support measures for enterprises include tax incentives, platform construction for testing, and encouragement for small and specialized enterprises to focus on differentiated development [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending September 12, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1336 million tons, a weekly increase of 33,200 tons per day. The latest ton - coke profit dropped by 29 yuan per ton to 35 yuan per ton due to the implementation of coke price cuts. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4055 million tons, a weekly increase of 117,100 tons per day, returning to the pre - parade production level. The total coke inventory increased slightly to 9.0624 million tons, mainly accumulating in the steel - mill segment. The market has mixed factors, and coke is oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to potential new benefits from "stable growth" and "anti - involution" policies [5][35]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending September 12, the daily raw - coal output of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 1.856 million tons, a weekly increase of 155,000 tons, still 170,000 tons lower than the same period last year after the resumption of mine production post - parade; the daily clean - coal output was 728,000 tons, a weekly increase of 35,000 tons and 60,000 tons lower year - on - year. The combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1336 million tons, a weekly increase of 33,200 tons per day. The coking - coal inventory at all industrial - chain links decreased. The latest total inventory was 22.0288 million tons, a weekly decrease of 565,200 tons. The main de - stocking segment was independent coking plants, with an inventory decrease of 365,100 tons to 8.8354 million tons. The decline in downstream inventory was due to the weakening of the spot - market atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment on the demand side. The coking - coal supply has gradually stabilized after the previous "anti - involution" capacity verification. Short - term demand faces some pressure due to the shrinking steel - mill profits. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and "stable growth" support market sentiment. The coking - coal main contract is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to future policy changes [6][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market - based approaches to revitalize idle land. On September 11, Kong Weidong, the director of the Department of Natural Resources Development and Utilization of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that the ministry will guide pilot areas for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation to explore and promote the orderly flow and efficient allocation of land factors. It will refine the criteria for identifying inefficient land, promote the withdrawal of inefficient urban land, and encourage market - based revitalization of idle land [8]. - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal on September 12. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal (A27.5, V33, S1.1, G75, Mt4.0) was $57.4 per ton, and all 64,000 tons on offer were unsold [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,520 yuan, a weekly decrease of 3.18%, a monthly decrease of 3.18%, an annual decrease of 10.06%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,430 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.70%, a monthly decrease of 3.38%, an annual decrease of 11.73%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.33% [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140 yuan, a weekly decrease of 3.39%, a monthly decrease of 3.39%, an annual decrease of 3.39%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.57%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,510 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1.95%, a monthly decrease of 4.43%, an annual increase of 1.34%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.58%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,550 yuan, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 4.91%, an annual increase of 1.31%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40% [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,625.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.43%. The highest price was 1,640.5 yuan, the lowest was 1,595.0 yuan, the trading volume was 27,338 lots, an increase of 4,745 lots, and the open interest was 47,597 lots, an increase of 658 lots [14]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,144.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.88%. The highest price was 1,152.0 yuan, the lowest was 1,125.0 yuan, the trading volume was 959,111 lots, a decrease of 105,254 lots, and the open interest was 697,002 lots, a decrease of 21,073 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts showing the inventory of coke (including independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory) and coking coal (including mine - mouth, ports, steel mills, and independent coking plants), as well as other relevant industry data such as domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal screw - thread steel procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][22][28] 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is that it will oscillate within a range due to mixed market factors. Attention should be paid to potential new benefits from "stable growth" and "anti - involution" policies [35]. - The outlook for coking coal is that it will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Although the supply has stabilized, short - term demand faces pressure, and policy expectations support market sentiment. Attention should be paid to future policy changes [36].

Group 1 - The steel industry is experiencing an optimization of supply and demand due to "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" policies, benefiting related enterprises [3] - Daming International (01090.HK) reported a net profit of 22.8 million RMB for 2025, a significant increase of 141.6% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 7.6% to 554 million RMB [3] - The company's processing business showed steady growth, with sales volume increases of 3.1% for stainless steel and 0.4% for carbon steel in the first half of 2025, and a 6.6% increase in carbon steel processing volume [3] Group 2 - Daming International has ten processing centers and one manufacturing base in China, providing customized metal material processing and high-end equipment manufacturing services to 70,000 companies across various industries [3] - The company has successfully entered the high-end shipbuilding market in Europe and has exported pressure storage tank products in the chemical sector [3][4] - The company’s new 40,000-ton deep-water terminal at the Jingjiang base significantly enhances its international logistics capabilities [4] Group 3 - Daming International aims to create a high-quality and efficient global supply chain through its "materials + processing center + equipment manufacturing" service model [4] - The company is expanding its overseas presence with a subsidiary in Germany and plans to further penetrate Southeast Asia and the Americas [4] - Daming International is enhancing its competitive edge through collaboration in the special materials sector and has signed agreements to empower smart manufacturing and energy equipment business [4] Group 4 - Overall, Daming International's profitability has significantly improved in the first half of 2025, with fruitful project outcomes and accelerated overseas expansion [5] - The company is expected to benefit from steady infrastructure investment, ongoing manufacturing development, and increased export growth [5] - Currently, the company's price-to-book ratio is below the industry average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [5]