Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 99.240, while spot gold opened at $4585.49 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4617.53 per ounce [1] - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index rose by 0.29% to close at 99.186, while spot gold fell by 0.18% to $4594.90 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals showed mixed performance, with spot silver rising by 2.06% to $86.91 per ounce, while platinum and palladium fell by 0.33% to $2329.70 per ounce and 1.32% to $1826.50 per ounce, respectively [1] Group 2 - As of January 13, COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.59 tons to 1128.93 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 56.41 tons to 13550.91 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 3.43 tons to 1074.23 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 26.79 tons to 16321.16 tons [2] - The payment direction for deferred compensation fees indicates that Au(t+d), Ag(t+d), and mAu(t+d) are all in a short-to-long payment structure [2] Group 3 - The US CPI growth remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly below expectations, leading to comments from Trump advocating for significant interest rate cuts [3] - The ADP weekly employment report indicated that private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025 [4] - The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, with Trump stating that all meetings with Iranian officials have been canceled and that Iran will "pay a heavy price" [4][5]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.90% and the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.64% [1][3] - The US stock market experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down by 0.80% and the S&P 500 down by 0.19% [1][3] - Japanese stocks reached new highs, supported by expectations of continued expansionary fiscal policies [3] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.36%, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index rose by 0.42% [2] - The Hang Seng Commercial Index saw a 0.70% increase, indicating positive sentiment in the commercial sector [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market exhibited mixed results, with sectors such as defense and electronics facing declines, while oil and pharmaceuticals showed gains [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.296 billion, with notable purchases in Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi [3] Company Analysis: JD.com - JD.com is projected to achieve total revenue of RMB 349.2 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to drop significantly by 96% to RMB 484 million, primarily due to increased investment in the delivery business and high base effects from the previous year [5] - The target price for JD.com has been adjusted to USD 46.8, reflecting a downward revision in profit forecasts [5] Company Analysis: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle is expected to see a revenue increase of 6.5% to RMB 18.2 billion for FY25, with core net profit projected to grow by 10.8% to RMB 3.9 billion [6] - The commercial segment is anticipated to grow by 13.8%, while the residential segment remains stable [6] - The target price has been raised to HKD 53.96, reflecting a 9% increase in valuation multiples due to reduced reliance on residential business [6][7] Shopping Center Sector Insights - The shopping center sector is expected to see retail sales growth of 20-25% in FY25, driven by new consumer trends [7] - The segment's revenue is projected to grow by 18%, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [7] Residential Sector Insights - The residential sector is expected to maintain stable revenue growth of 1.3%, with property management services showing resilience [8] - The company is likely to maintain a 100% dividend payout ratio, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The inflation narrative is prominent currently. The subsequent boost in consumption and the advancement of "anti - involution" remain unchanged. The future path of price recovery still depends on supply - side policies. There are signs of inflation cooling in the US in December. Attention should be paid to China's December import and export data. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. The report suggests seizing opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, and recommends buying futures of stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [1][2][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery through monetary policy tools. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela are rising, and the global competition for minerals and energy resources is intensifying. The Fed's third - in - command stated that there is no strong pressure to change interest rates. CME will adjust the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts [1] Economic Data Comparison - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year in US dollars. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December were better than expected. The US December ISM manufacturing index declined slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate remained high. The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the core CPI hit a four - year low [2] Commodity Analysis - Currently, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities in low - valued commodities. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metals sector persists, with aluminum and nickel being preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term risks in the new energy sector. The LME copper inventory has dropped to a six - month low. In the energy sector, the US plans to "distribute" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. In the chemical sector, there is potential for "anti - involution" in methanol and PTA. For agricultural products, monitor weather forecasts and short - term pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals on dips [3] Strategy - Buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Important News - Trump will interview Rick Rieder for the Fed chair position on the 15th, and Rieder supports lowering the US benchmark interest rate to 3%. The investigation of Powell has caused internal strife. The New York Fed President said the labor market is stable and inflation may peak in the first half of 2026. The US December CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%. Trump pressured the US Supreme Court on tariffs and imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Japan's Prime Minister intends to dissolve the House of Representatives. CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The LME copper inventory dropped to a six - month low. Some commodity futures had significant price movements on January 13th [6]

Group 1 - Multiple U.S. Federal Reserve officials have stated that there is no urgent need for interest rate cuts based on the current economic situation [1][3] - Market expectations remain for the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, leading to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and a decline in international gold prices [1][11] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.80%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.10% on the day of the Federal Reserve officials' statements [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected earnings for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, but its investment banking revenue fell short of expectations, resulting in a stock price drop of over 4% [5] - Other major financial institutions also experienced stock declines, with Morgan Stanley down over 2%, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both down over 1% [5] - Visa and Mastercard shares fell by nearly 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively, amid concerns over future profitability in the financial sector [5] Group 3 - In Europe, stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK market slightly down by 0.03%, France down by 0.14%, and Germany up by 0.06% [8] - Investors are cautious due to geopolitical risks, including the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and rising oil prices due to tensions in Iran [8][10] Group 4 - International oil prices saw significant increases, with light crude oil futures for February closing at $61.15 per barrel, up by 2.77%, and Brent crude for March at $65.47 per barrel, up by 2.51% [10] - International gold prices faced pressure, with February gold futures closing at $4599.10 per ounce, down by 0.34%, while silver prices rose by 1.47% to $86.338 per ounce [11]

Core CPI and Inflation Trends - The core CPI remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year in December, aligning with expectations; the core CPI was at 2.6%, below the expected 2.7%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%; energy inflation continued to decline, offsetting the rebound in food prices, with core goods and services remaining low [2] Energy Inflation - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of energy CPI dropped to 2.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; gasoline prices fell to -4.3% year-on-year, while electricity prices remained high at 6.7% [5] - The average price of Brent crude oil in December was $62.94 per barrel, down from $63.87, indicating a steady decline towards $60 due to oversupply in the oil market [5] - EIA data suggests a global oil market surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025, increasing to 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating continued pressure on oil prices [5] Automotive Inflation - Core goods year-on-year growth was recorded at 1.4%, unchanged from the previous month; new and used car prices continued to decline to 0.3% and 1.6% respectively [6] - Leading indicators suggest a potential marginal recovery in automotive inflation by Q1 2026, indicating possible improvements in durable goods consumption post Fed rate cuts in late 2025 [6] Service Inflation - Core services year-on-year growth remained flat at 3%, with housing holding steady at 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; high mortgage rates continue to suppress housing inflation [8] - Medical services saw a rebound of 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, countering the decline in transportation services, which have been affected by falling oil prices [8] Long-term Inflation Expectations - In January 2026, the one-year inflation expectation from Michigan consumers remained at 4.2%, while the five-year expectation increased to 3.4% from 3.2%, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about inflation risks [10] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, the dollar index fluctuated, and U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines; the two-year Treasury yield decreased by about 1 basis point to 3.53% [12] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June increased to 70% from 68%, with the likelihood of a rate cut in January dropping to 2.8% [12] - Overall, the continued low inflation in December suggests further potential for Fed rate cuts in the future [12]

美国12月CPI数据看似温和，实则是一个布满陷阱的"假动作"。据德意志银行和摩根士丹利最新研报显示，这份"利好"报告充满了不可持续的噪音 和统计扭曲。真正的考验是下周公布的PCE数据！ 据华尔街见闻文章，美国劳工统计局1月13日公布的数据显示，12月CPI同环比符合预期，核心CPI同比涨幅2.6%，为2021年3月以来最低水平，同 时低于预期2.7%；环比0.2%，低于预期0.3%。 虽然12月CPI看似为通胀降温提供了证据，但市场反应平淡，投资者尚未将此视为美联储加快降息的信号。1月14日，据追风交易台消息，德银和 大摩认为，关键原因在于：这一数据可能失真，而真正决定美联储政策路径的核心PCE通胀指标预计将大幅反弹。 德银分析师在研报中直言，12月CPI数据"充斥着扭曲和异常值"，部分降温是由于信息技术商品和无线电话服务出现异常大幅下跌，两者合计拉 低核心CPI约6个基点。剔除异常值的克利夫兰联储截尾均值CPI（Trimmed mean CPI）和中位数CPI分别为0.31%和0.28%，均强于核心CPI，显示 基础通胀压力实际上更为顽固。 大摩则在研报中警告，尽管核心CPI低于预期，但其对核心个人消费支出 ...

美国劳工部发布的2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据意外"爆冷"，核心CPI环比增速低于市场普遍预期，打破了此前对通胀反弹的 担忧，直接推动市场对美联储的降息预期升温。尽管整体通胀同比增速与前一月持平，但核心通胀的温和表现让市场重新评估美联储的 政策路径，叠加美联储内部本就存在的政策分歧，全球金融市场随之出现短期波动，后续降息节奏的不确定性仍未消散。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速做出反应，降息预期升温的信号显著。美股三大指数盘前直线拉升，但随后涨幅回落，最终道琼斯工业平均 指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综指微跌0.1%，标普500指数下跌0.19%。债券市场方面，美债收益率短期下行后趋于平稳，2年期美债收益率 小幅回落2个基点至3.53%，10年期美债收益率短暂下行后持平于4.17%。贵金属市场延续强势，现货白银首次站上88美元/盎司，年内累 计涨幅超23%；美元指数则收复前一日跌幅，推动美元兑日元汇率突破159。 市场对降息预期的定价明显调整，据CME"美联储观察"工具数据，交易员对4月降息的概率预期从数据公布前的38%升至42%，尽管6月 仍被视为最可能的首次降息时间，但降息节奏前移的预期已显现。当前市场 ...

知情人士透露，检方已向美联储发出大陪审团传票，要求提交有关翻修工程的相关内部文件。司法部方面拒绝对此案件细节进行评论，只表示将优先调查任 何滥用纳税人资金的行为。特朗普则选择了一种熟悉的姿态，在接受NBC采访时否认知情，但又反讽道：我不知道调查的情况，但他在美联储的表现并不 好，至少在建楼这件事上没做得很好。这种做法看似否认介入，但却加剧了对鲍威尔的指责。实际上，这早已是美国政治中的一招熟练的操作方式。 在美国的政治体系中，有两个重要机构常被强调不能政治化：一个是司法部，另一个是美联储。可如今，这两个机构正陷入同一场风暴的漩涡中，似乎一切 都变得扑朔迷离。 上周五，华盛顿特区的联邦检察官办公室正式对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔展开了刑事调查。调查的表面理由是：美联储总部的翻修工程 是否存在资金滥用问题，鲍威尔在国会作证时是否有误导立法者的行为。但几乎没有人相信，这只是一次简单的建楼审计。实际上，翻修一栋大楼却引发了 美国政坛最危险的权力冲突。这场调查的发生，调查方式、授权人以及它可能带来的政治后果，都让这起事件看起来更像是一颗直指美联储独立性的实弹。 从大楼翻修到伪证指控，为何一个技术性问题变成了政治武器？调查的 ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration and the Federal Reserve are injecting significant liquidity into the financial system, which investors perceive as having effects similar to quantitative easing (QE) despite official denials [1][2] - A series of policies, including a directive to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, are aimed at stimulating the economy ahead of the midterm elections [1][3] Group 1: Policy Actions - The Trump administration has ordered government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in MBS to lower mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [1][3] - The Federal Reserve has purchased $54.43 billion in short-term Treasury securities since December, with expectations of buying between $220 billion and $300 billion in the first year [2][3] - Regulatory relaxations, such as the GENIUS Act and reduced capital requirements for banks, are designed to create more credit space for major lending institutions [4] Group 2: Market Implications - The combination of MBS purchases and the Fed's balance sheet expansion creates a multi-faceted liquidity injection mechanism that may lead to increased cash flow into risk assets [5] - The influx of liquidity could push asset prices higher, even if valuations appear excessive, as investors may feel a "bottom support" in prices [6] - Concerns about inflation are rising, with M2 money supply growth currently over 4%, but experts suggest inflation risks may only become serious if growth reaches 6% to 8% [6]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 宏观组 2026年1月13日晚美国劳工部公布12月通胀数字。其中：同比CPI+2.7%，预期+2.7%，前值+2.7%；核心 CPI+2.6%，预期+2.7%，前值+2.6%。 美国12月CPI显示整体通胀保持平稳，但核心通胀表现显著低于市场预期。核心CPI同比持平于2.6%， 环比仅上涨0.2%，双双低于预期。这一结果被视为对通胀持续降温的更具说服力的确认，更清晰地显 示潜在通胀压力正在缓解。尽管食品、医疗等部分分项价格仍有上涨压力，但超级核心通胀同比增速降 至近月以来最低，表明通胀整体处于温和回落通道，向美联储2%的目标靠拢。 数据公布后，市场对通胀放缓的信心增强，风险资产反应积极：美股期货走高，美债收益、美元同步回 落。交易员进一步加大对美联储提前降息的押注，但多数仍预期6月为最可能启动降息的时点。核心 CPI低于预期强化了鸽派信号，缓解了市场对通胀反弹和政策过早转向的担忧。尽管1月FOMC会议预计 仍将维持利率不变，但此次数据为美联储在未来几个月内转向降息提供了更多依据。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 ...