Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a favorable position due to mid-term inflation expectations reaching target levels and a more balanced economic growth outlook, making the threshold for further interest rate cuts very high [1] Group 1 - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the current economic conditions do not warrant further rate cuts [1] - The ECB plans to gradually reduce its monetary policy bond investment portfolio to zero [1]

不存在通胀持续低于目标水平的风险。 再次降息的门槛非常高。 欧洲央行执委Schnabel：欧洲央行处境不错。 ...

现货黄金报3329附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报37.15美元/盎司； 基本面： 周五（7月11日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银价格长时间保持区间震荡行情，适当减少白银的投资时间周期，同时也可以减少白银的仓位，短期交易或者观 望为主。基本面美国劳动力市场的最新数据为金市分析提供了重要背景。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至7月5日当周，初请失业金人数意外降至22.7 万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，创七周以来最低水平。这一数据表明，尽管劳动力市场存在降温迹象，雇主仍在努力留住员工，显示出劳动力市场的韧 性。然而，续请失业金人数却升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，达到196.5万人，表明失业者寻找新工作的难度正在增加。景顺固定收益首席策略师Rob Waldner评论称，当前劳动力市场呈现出"停滞"特征，企业倾向于通过降低员工流失率和减少招聘来控制成本，而非大规模裁员。这种低裁员、低招聘的趋 势使得劳动力市场保持了相对稳定，但也为经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。 劳动力市场的复杂信号对黄金市场的影响是双重的。一方面，强劲的就业数据提振了美元和美债收益率，进一步压制金价；另一方面，劳动力市场潜在的疲 软迹象可能在未来为黄 ...

Economic Performance - The UK economy has entered a recession for the second consecutive month, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, slightly better than April's 0.3% drop but still below economists' expectations of a 0.1% growth [1] - If June's output falls by 0.4% or more, the second quarter will show a significant deterioration compared to the 0.7% growth in the first quarter [1] Currency and Fiscal Pressure - Following the data release, the British pound fell by 0.3% to 1.3545 USD, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [1] - The Labour government faces dual pressures to support fiscal spending goals through economic growth while managing recent policy reversals that have exacerbated fiscal challenges [1] Sector Performance - Manufacturing and construction sectors were the main contributors to the economic decline, with May output experiencing the largest drop in nearly 18 months [3] - The decline is attributed to ongoing economic weakness from April, U.S. tariff pressures, and rising household energy bills and property taxes [3] - The services sector also showed weak performance, with only a 0.1% growth in May, and retail sales significantly decreased [3] Employment and Taxation - Employers are facing an additional £26 billion in new payroll taxes, alongside rising regulated prices for services like rail fares and water, which are contributing to the economic downturn [5] - Since the budget announcement last October, over 250,000 jobs have been cut as businesses respond to significant increases in minimum wage [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - With inflation pressures easing, the market anticipates that the Bank of England will initiate interest rate cuts in August, with another expected by the end of the year [5] - Analysts suggest that the growth seen in the first quarter was a one-off event, primarily driven by preemptive production increases before the implementation of U.S. tariffs [5]

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-11 宏观宽松延续，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. restaurant industry is facing significant challenges due to increased costs from tariffs on imported food ingredients, equipment, and packaging materials, which began on April 2 [1][2] - Consumer willingness to dine out has decreased, compounded by the financial strain from tariffs, leading to a negative outlook for the industry as noted by Fitch Ratings [2] Cost Increases - The cost of disposable items, such as bowls, has risen by 25%, from approximately $25 per box to $35 since March [2] - The price of disposable gloves has increased from $32 in January to $39 in recent orders [2] - Imported goods like wine and coffee have seen price increases of $0.50 to $1, with some raw material costs rising by 20% to 30% over six months [2][3] Business Responses - Businesses are adopting varied strategies to cope with the financial pressures; some are shifting to digital operations while others are passing costs onto consumers [2] - The typical profit margin for restaurants is low, often in single digits, making them particularly vulnerable to rising costs [3] Economic Implications - Economists are monitoring whether tariffs will lead to broader inflation and more cautious consumer spending this summer [5] - The uncertainty caused by the government's tariff announcements has led businesses to delay investments [5]

Group 1 - Current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a rebound in the US dollar, with gold trading around $3327.68 per ounce [1] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports from Brazil has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions, providing support for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [1][3] - Unexpected decline in US initial jobless claims to 227,000 has pushed the dollar index to a two-week high of 97.92, which has suppressed gold demand priced in dollars [1] Group 2 - The implementation of tariffs may increase commodity prices, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold [3] - Rising inflation expectations could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, but the strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields may offset this benefit [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy complicates the inflation outlook, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance may continue to limit gold's upward potential [4] Group 3 - The gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support, while the strong dollar and rising Treasury yields restrict price increases [4] - Short-term gold prices are likely to remain within the current range unless there is a significant escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [4] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the anticipation of the June CPI inflation report, which is expected to provide insights into the impact of the tariff war initiated by President Trump on prices [2][3] - Wall Street forecasts a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI, excluding food and energy, which would be the highest level since January [2] - Analysts from TD Securities expect a faster increase in commodity prices in June, reflecting the transmission of some tariff costs, while BofA Securities highlights that core goods prices will be the main driver of inflation acceleration [2][3] Group 2 - The importance of the core CPI month-over-month figure lies in its ability to help investors and policymakers understand the underlying inflation trend by excluding volatile components [3] - Market participants' reaction to the June core CPI increase will be crucial in determining whether it is seen as a one-time event or a precursor to future inflation [3] - LPL Financial's chief fixed income strategist expresses optimism, indicating that the bond market does not expect a sustained acceleration in inflation despite some upward adjustments in expectations [4] Group 3 - The breadth of inflationary pressures in the commodity sector will influence market participants' responses to the upcoming CPI data [5] - There is a risk in the bond market if inflation does indeed accelerate, which could lead to higher yields for incorrect reasons, potentially affecting stock markets as well [5]

当全球债务突破300万亿美元、多国大选极右翼势力崛起、地缘冲突频发、人工智能以"周"为单位迭代颠覆 产业……世界在多重震荡中迎来新秩序重构，我们已然站在"巨变拐点"上。 更严峻的是，债务危机正与五大力量深度交织。 达利欧预警：未来5年，爆发全球性债务重组危机的概率高达65%，美元霸权或因此遭受重创。企业、国家 与个人若无法识别自身在周期中的位置，将被这股强大的"潮汐之力"吞没。 这本新书并非悲观预言，而是生存指南：从"狡兔三窟"的风险分散策略，到构建"抗末日投资组合"，达利欧 提炼出穿越乱局的永恒原则——"担忧者生存，盲目者淘汰"。 以上这些看似孤立的事件，在桥水创始人瑞·达利欧的宏观框架中，正是 "大债务周期"与"五大力量"共振的 必然爆发点。 在新书《国家为什么会破产：大周期》中，这位传奇投资人用50年实证研究揭示历史规律：债务泡沫从膨 胀到破裂约需80年，而当下全球正处于"死亡螺旋"临界点——美中日欧债务/GDP比值均突破历史高位，央 行被迫在"恶性通胀"与"债务违约"间抉择。 ▼点击下方卡片，即可购买▼ 可以说，读懂这本书，便是握紧动荡时代少有的确定性。 01 一生仅见一次的大债务周期 在过去50年的 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-11 "反内卷"交易升温，工业品板块普遍上涨 市场分析 7月将迎来国内的政治局会议。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或 将拖累财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱， 前期需求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下。中国6月 制造业PMI有所回升，但主要依赖部分原材料行业回升带动，国内经济企稳基础仍需夯实。7月以来，中央财经委、 工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温，部分 商品价格回暖。7月10日周四，A股午后拉升，沪指站稳3500点，盘中创9个月新高，地产股掀起涨停潮，大金融股 走强，创新药、稀土、光伏等涨幅居前，算力、军工等板块调整。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求， 关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。美国将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产 品征收25%至40%不等的关税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓期截止日期延长至8月1日，且特朗普表示该日 ...