传奇交易员都铎·琼斯：关税是自1960年代以来最大的增税，在关税和利率发生变化之前，市场将跌至 新低。 ...

瑞士央行行长：我们的使命是在瑞士实现价格稳定，我们必须确保这一目标，因此我们采用利率和汇率 工具；我们已表示准备在必要时干预外汇市场。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The silver market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations around 33.11, with the U.S. services sector showing a rebound in April, while inflationary pressures from tariffs are increasing [1] - The ISM survey indicates that the non-manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, contrary to economists' expectations of a drop to 50.2, suggesting preemptive purchasing by businesses and households ahead of tariff implementations [1] - The new orders index in the ISM survey increased from 50.4 in March to 52.3 in April, indicating stronger demand [1] Market Sentiment - The market is cautious with gold prices holding gains, suggesting strong support from safe-haven buying and dip buying, while investors should be wary of potential further increases in gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, but uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies casts a shadow over economic prospects [2] - Gold has seen a significant increase of over 26% this year, often performing well in low-interest-rate environments [2] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a price consolidation phase, with support levels around 32.05 and resistance at 33.00 [6] - The MACD indicator shows a downward trend, indicating a cautious trading environment with reduced market activity [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions near 32.70 with a stop loss at 33.00 and a take profit target between 32.00 and 31.00 [6]

Group 1: Hong Kong Dollar and Stock Market - The Hong Kong dollar has reached the Strong-side Convertibility Undertaking for the first time in five years, indicating a potential bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market [3][5] - The Hong Kong banking system has approximately 8 trillion HKD in deposits, compared to over 300 trillion CNY in mainland China, highlighting the relatively small size of the HKD market [3] - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with a net inflow of 1.4 trillion HKD in just over a year and a half, leading to a shortage of HKD liquidity [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 has achieved a nine-day winning streak, the longest since 2004, recovering from declines caused by tariff announcements [7][8] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year, totaling a reduction of approximately 75 basis points [8][9] - The earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft and Facebook have exceeded expectations, while Apple and Amazon's results were less favorable, indicating a high market efficiency [8][9] Group 3: Taiwan Dollar and Financial Risks - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated significantly, with a rise of over 8.5% against the U.S. dollar in recent trading days [11][12] - The appreciation poses risks for Taiwanese insurance companies heavily invested in U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, leading to potential losses exceeding 8% [12] - Regulatory bodies in Taiwan are urging insurance companies to assess the impact of currency fluctuations on their operations [12] Group 4: Oil Price Decline and Sector Impact - International oil prices have dropped nearly 10% over the past six trading days, primarily due to Saudi Arabia's decision to increase production in response to non-compliance by other OPEC members [17][18] - The decline in oil prices is expected to negatively impact oil and gas companies while benefiting sectors like airlines [18] Group 5: Currency Fluctuations and Economic Implications - The offshore RMB has appreciated to 7.2, which is favorable for the stock market but detrimental for export-oriented companies [19][20] - The People's Bank of China has conducted a significant reverse repo operation, indicating potential conditions for a reserve requirement ratio cut [20] Group 6: Developments in Autonomous Driving - Xiaomi has rebranded its "smart driving" feature to "assisted driving," reflecting a shift towards a more rational approach in the industry following recent discussions on safety [21][22] - This change may initially be viewed as a negative for the autonomous driving sector but could ultimately be beneficial as the industry matures [22] Group 7: Real Estate Market Trends - The sales data for the top 100 real estate companies in April showed a year-on-year decline of 16.9%, indicating a worsening trend compared to March [23] - Shenzhen Metro has reported significant losses, primarily due to investments in Vanke, which are seen as a financial burden [23][24]

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 关税方面有更多利好消息，叠加美国非农就业强劲，缓解市场对经济的担忧，市场的风险偏好上升。 周五，美股指涨超1%，标普连涨九天，创最近21年最长连涨天数，收复"对等关税"以来所有跌幅。Meta收涨超4%，微软、英伟达、特斯拉涨超2%，周四盘 后公布财报的苹果一度跌超5%、亚马逊曾跌2%。中概指数涨超3%。 美债再下挫。非农就业报告后，美债收益率连续第二日盘中拉升超10个基点。离岸人民币一度涨超700点、涨破7.21。比特币逼近9.8万美元。 OPEC+讨论6月增产消息后，原油盘中跌超2%。 要闻 市场收报 欧美股市：道指涨1.39%，标普500指数涨1.47%，纳斯达克涨1.51%。欧洲STOXX 600指数收涨1.67%，全周累计上涨3.07%。 债市：美国10年期基准国债收益率上涨8.88个基点，报4.3064%，全周累计上涨7.30个基点。两年期美债收益率涨12.53个基点，报3.8239%，全周累计涨7.60 个基点。 付鹏说|利率、汇率、资产价格"不可能三角"，普通人如何保住钱包？了解详情>> 2025年伯克希尔股东大会 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices continued to rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.02%, Nasdaq up 1.21%, and S&P 500 up 1.15% as of the report [1] - Apple shares fell nearly 4% as CEO Tim Cook estimated an increase of $900 million in costs due to tariffs [1] - Nvidia shares rose nearly 2% as the company resumed custom chip development following US export regulations [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks saw a general increase, with the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF rising over 10% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.7% [1] - Alibaba and JD.com both rose nearly 4%, while XPeng Motors increased over 6.5% and Kingsoft Cloud rose over 7% [1] Employment Data - In April, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, exceeding the forecast of 138,000 and down from the previous value of 228,000 [4] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, matching market expectations [4] - Average hourly earnings in April grew by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected growth of 0.3% [4] Trade Relations - The US confirmed that auto parts manufactured in Canada and Mexico will be exempt from a 25% tariff as part of the USMCA, effective May 3 [6] - The US Chamber of Commerce urged the Trump administration to implement a tariff exemption mechanism to prevent economic downturn and protect small businesses, but the White House rejected the request [7] - The US is actively communicating with China regarding trade talks, emphasizing the need for the US to show sincerity by correcting unilateral tariff measures [3]

我对利率的理解超越美联储主席鲍威尔。 利率应当下降。 美国总统特朗普：我不太喜欢"美联储那个人"（guy at the FED）。 ...

特朗普吹擂执政百日政绩 还称比美联储主席更懂利率 金十数据4月30日讯，就在美国人对特朗普的经济管理感到担忧的时候，周二，特朗普在密歇根州举行 的一次集会上吹嘘"一系列重大经济胜利"，并猛烈抨击包括前总统拜登在内的民主党人。这次集会是为 了庆祝他上任100天。"我们拥有我国历史上最伟大的经济，"特朗普在谈到他的第一任总统任期（2017- 2021年）时说，我们做得很好，现在我们做得更好。特朗普再次抨击美联储，他对支持者表示，通胀基 本上下降了，利率也下降了，尽管我的一位美联储官员并没有真正做好工作，但我不会说是谁。我想对 美联储表现得非常友好和尊重。特朗普接着说："你应该让他做自己的事，但相信我，我对利率的了解 比他多。"这次集会与特朗普在整个政治生涯中举行的集会类似，他抨击了"激进的左翼疯子"，与一名 质问者进行了简短的口头辩论，并询问人们最喜欢拜登的什么昵称，尽管拜登已经卸任三个多月了。 ...

欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯：利率可能会在今年降至2%。欧洲央行应当在进一步降息方面保持谨慎。 ...

欧洲央行管委斯托纳拉斯表示，利率今年可能降至2%。 ...