Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the global liquidity environment significantly improved, with the Federal Reserve initiating a substantial interest rate cut cycle, leading to a 9.41% decline in the US dollar index, which provided a favorable external environment for the rise in precious metal prices. China's steady growth policies continued to exert influence, with marginal recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure demand, resulting in a notable improvement in the demand for non-ferrous metals and related new energy products. Under the resonance of loose liquidity and risk aversion, the precious metals sector performed exceptionally well, with the Wind Precious Metals Index rising by 69.7%, significantly outperforming major global equity markets. Overall, the asset trends in 2025 exhibited a typical characteristic of "precious metals leading, equity assets diverging, and a weaker dollar" [1]. Group 1: Asset Performance - The Wind Precious Metals Index increased by 69.7% in 2025, outperforming the major equity markets [2] - The total A-share market rose by 27.65%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 16.39% [2] - The US dollar index fell by 9.41%, marking a significant shift in the currency landscape [2] Group 2: Futures and Options Market - In 2025, 18 new futures and options products were launched, with 9 in each category, reflecting a focus on non-ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and precious metals [4][5] - The total funds in the domestic futures market reached 497.75 billion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 52.61%, reversing the previous two years of outflows [9] - The trading volume in the futures market reached a historical high of 76.625 trillion yuan, up 23.74% year-on-year [12] Group 3: Trading Company Rankings - Guotai Junan ranked first in trading volume with 1.631 billion contracts, a 44.74% increase year-on-year [17][18] - CITIC Futures ranked second with 1.486 billion contracts, showing a 14.02% increase [18] - The top ten trading companies accounted for approximately 57.83% of the total delivery volume in the futures market [19] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver futures saw a remarkable increase of 124.62% in 2025, with CITIC Futures earning over 4.9 billion yuan in profits from silver trading [22][23] - The precious metals sector experienced a significant inflow of 952.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.45% [30] - The trading volume of precious metals reached 145.11 trillion yuan, marking a 76.63% increase year-on-year [27] Group 5: Commodity Price Trends - Precious metals continued to rise for the fourth consecutive year, while energy and chemical sectors faced declines, with crude oil prices dropping by 10.98% [47] - The delivery amount for gold reached 51.741 billion yuan, a 291.50% increase year-on-year [49][50] - The market saw a divergence in performance, with precious metals leading the commodity market while energy indices fell by over 20% [33]

Precious Metals Futures - New York gold futures showed strong performance, breaking through $4,470 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.43% [1] - Spot gold also rose, surpassing $4,450 per ounce with a daily increase of 2.71% [3] - The silver market saw even more significant gains, with New York silver futures rising 9% to $77.41 per ounce, previously breaking $77 per ounce with a daily increase of 8.51% [4][5] - Spot silver also broke $77 per ounce, with a daily increase of 5.80% [6] - In the domestic market, silver's continuous main contract rose 4%, currently at 18,898.00 yuan [7] - The Azerbaijan State Oil Fund profited over $10 billion from gold investments [8] Base Metals Futures - Nickel's continuous main contract increased by 1%, currently at 135,610.00 yuan [9] - Aluminum's continuous main contract performed strongly, rising by 3% to 24,335.00 yuan [10] Energy and Shipping Futures - Crude oil futures experienced fluctuations due to the situation in Venezuela, rising over $1 per barrel after political turmoil [11] - U.S. natural gas futures continued to decline, with a daily drop exceeding 6.00%, currently at $2.859 per million British thermal units [12] - Further decline was noted with a drop exceeding 7.00%, now at $2.829 per million British thermal units [13] - Shipping data indicated that several oil tankers broke through U.S. maritime blockades against Venezuela, including one chartered by Chevron that has left Venezuelan waters heading to the U.S. Gulf Coast [14] Financial Futures - U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.23% and reaching a historical high, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.69% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% [15] - During trading, the Dow Jones briefly surpassed 49,000 points, increasing by 1.37%, currently at 49,044.820 points; the Nasdaq rose by 1.00% to 23,468.494 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.79% to 6,912.650 points [16] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced volatility, initially dropping over 1% before closing up 0.53%, with notable gains in stocks like Canaan Inc., Wanhuixinsheng, and Kandi Technologies [17][18] Macro and Market Impact - The U.S. Department of Energy announced a provision of $2.7 billion to enhance U.S. uranium enrichment capabilities [19] - The U.S. Treasury reached a global minimum tax rate agreement with the OECD [20] - The situation in Venezuela became a market focus, with Vice President Rodriguez sworn in as acting president, the nation entering a state of emergency, and military control imposed on the oil industry [21][22] - The United Nations described the situation as entering a "severe moment," with U.S. military actions against Venezuela criticized as violations of the UN Charter [23] - Additionally, President Trump's approval rating rose to 42%, the highest level since October of the previous year [24]

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market has a supply - demand slump, and it's recommended to wait and see or execute an option combination [2]. - The aluminum market is trending strongly, and the alumina market needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize. Cast aluminum alloy shows weak seasonal performance [3]. - The zinc market is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, and it's in a rebound pattern [4]. - The lead market has limited rebound space and is expected to stay within 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [7]. - For the tin market, continue to hold the call option with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a slow de - stocking speed and a rising price center [9]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the polysilicon market is in a high - level shock [10][11]. Summary by Metal Copper - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai copper rose with increased positions, breaking 100,000 yuan. The SMM spot copper price was adjusted to 100,575 yuan, and the social inventory increased by 1.87 million tons to 25.76 million tons. The copper market has a weak supply - demand situation. Consider an option combination of selling a call at 104,000 yuan and buying a put at 98,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose, with increased spot discounts and a 2.4 - million - ton increase in social inventory. The aluminum market has a bullish trend, and it's advisable to go long based on the 40 - day line. The casting aluminum alloy has a weak seasonal performance. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and short - term price decline slows down, while mid - term stabilization awaits large - scale production cuts [3]. Zinc - In January, the TC of zinc concentrate decreased, and domestic smelters continued maintenance. After the holiday, downstream consumption recovered, driving the price up. The spot market is chaotic, and the price is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, with a rebound pressure range of 24,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The supply pressure of lead is small, and post - holiday consumption is recovering. However, the profit of recycled lead is improving, and overseas surplus is affecting the domestic market. The price is expected to stay between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strong, with active trading. Upstream price rebounds, and social inventory of stainless steel decreases. A long - position strategy is recommended [7]. Tin - On the first trading day, Shanghai tin rebounded. Pay attention to the production of low - grade mines and the seasonal risk of Indonesian tin exports. Continue to hold the call option of the 2602 contract with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong, with limited supply from upstream and some demand from downstream. The total inventory decreases, but the de - stocking speed slows down, and the price center rises [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. Supply is expected to decrease by about 2 million tons in January, and demand from organic silicon and polysilicon is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price increase drives the futures up. The price increase is driven by the cost of silver auxiliary materials, but the terminal demand is weak, and the market is in a stockpiling state, with high - level shocks in the short term [11].

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2026-01-05 生猪现货重心上移，玉米市场供需博弈 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货小幅高开，LH2603 合约报收 11795 元/吨，较前 周结算价上涨 1.81%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 12.24 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.61 元/吨。利润方面，截至 1 月 2 日，自繁自养生猪养殖利润 为-34.59 元/头，环比增加 95.52 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润为 -48.35 元/头，环比增加 114.35 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.37，周环比 提高 0.35。 节前全国生猪现货价格重心上移，各企业月度计划基本完成， 市场供应端缩量明显， 叠加元旦假期情绪提振，市场成交相对积 极，养殖端挺价看涨氛围浓厚，生猪价格震荡偏强。节后来看，月 初供应压力有限，养殖场出栏积极性不高，但随着企业恢复正常出 栏节奏，叠加节后利好消退，屠宰端收购力度减弱，终端消费跟进 不足，市场供大于求格局难改，生猪价格仍有稳中偏弱预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 ...

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期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 生猪期货：反弹乏力、震荡整理 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪期现货货呈 "先强后弱、北涨南跌" 格局，期货主力震荡偏强、现货 节前冲高后随腌腊需求退潮回落，养殖端挺价与出栏节奏调整主导短期波动，整体处于底部博弈阶段。 图 1： 主力合约基差 元/吨 供应端：集团企业12月出栏完成度101.77%，1月计划环比降2.96%，养殖端挺价情绪浓，出栏节奏放缓， 二次育肥增多，短期供应减少。需求端：节前腌腊需求释放支撑价格，元旦后需求转弱，屠宰企业采购积 极性下降，北方消费韧性强于南方。 支撑因素：养殖端缩量挺价，集团出栏计划下调，二次育肥入场，北方消费支撑，猪粮比回升至盈亏 平衡线附近。压制因素：南方腌腊需求退潮，大体重猪源消化困难，市场整体供应仍充足，元旦后终端消 费转弱。分歧点：短期挺价与中期供应压力的博弈，北方消费韧性与南方需求疲软的区域分化，期货近弱 远强反映的预期差异。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.95%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，利多因素发酵支撑矿价高位运行，但供应居高不下，而需求改善受 限，基本面表现偏弱，上行驱动不强，预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 0.74%日跌幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：节前焦煤现货暂稳运行，焦企利润无明显改善，生产积极性一般。 下游钢厂年末减产过后，进入新一年度将开始逐渐复产，铁水产量回升的 速度和幅度或是焦炭期货短期走向的重要影响因素。整体来看，下游复产 和冬储或给焦炭价格带来一定支撑，预计主力合约下跌存一定阻力，但能 否向上反弹仍需关注需求改善情况以及政策端有无新增利好。 焦煤：进入新一年度，此前因完成年度生产目标而停产、减产的煤矿将陆 续复产，焦煤产量或边际回升，叠加进口量维持高位，焦煤供应压力依然 存在。不过，元旦过后，下游钢厂也存有复产预期，预计将带动上游焦 煤、焦炭等原材料需求好转。整体来看，1 月焦煤预计将迎来供需两增局 面，上下游复产节奏或是市场短期博弈焦点，现阶段焦煤仍缺乏向上持续 性驱动，价格或维持低位震荡运行，密切关注煤炭产业政策。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话： ...

2026年1月5日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续走强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2240元/吨，广东价 格波动在2100-2190元/吨。外轮卸货较为顺畅，港口甲醇库存继续累积，前期利空出尽，加之进口量存减量 预期，提振市场偏强运行。内地甲醇价格延续下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1800-1845元/吨； 下游东营接货价格波动区间2100-2125元/吨。受元旦小长假临近、运费坚挺影响，上游为促出货主动降价， 内蒙古出厂跌至新低；虽买盘逢低刚需采购，但交投氛围清淡。前期快速下行后，受补空、刚需补货及内蒙 古部分烯烃询价带动，市场情绪回暖，上游多数竞拍溢价成交，买盘跟进改善，放量良好。局部推涨后新单 趋缓，以消化合同量为主。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计有所上升。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升。预计甲醇价格近期震荡 运行，05合约上方压力23 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current national cotton inspection volume in the domestic market has exceeded 6 million tons, with relatively sufficient supply. The ginning mills' cotton processing is nearing completion. Downstream textile enterprises have stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns, mostly making just - in - time purchases. Some regional warehouse inventories have slightly decreased, with overall good outbound shipments. It is expected that the national commercial inventory will still increase. However, in 2026, the expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang is rising, and the new cycle expectation of target price subsidies provides a bottom support, so there is a continuous upward driving force for short - term cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 14,655, up 70; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 180,066, down 1,730; main - contract cotton positions (daily, lots): 889,861, up 29,136; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 6,118, up 406 - Cotton yarn main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20,575, down 10; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 2,248, down 130; main - contract cotton yarn positions (daily, lots): 18,643, down 947; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 19, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B, daily, yuan/ton): 15,615, up 30; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 21,200, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff, daily, yuan/ton): 12,445, down 477; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 20,961, down 12; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty, daily, yuan/ton): 13,633, down 297; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 22,288, up 70 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,585, down 30; industrial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import quantity (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 12, up 3; cotton yarn import quantity (monthly value, monthly, tons): 150,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1,982; commercial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 468.36, up 175.3 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.33, up 0.21; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 32.34, up 0.37 - Cloth output (monthly value, monthly, billion meters): 28.1, up 1.9; yarn output (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 203.9, up 3.8 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 11,593,686, up 590,205.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 12,275,733, up 1,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 15.07, up 1.78; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 15.04, up 1.78 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 8.89, down 0.07; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.9, down 0.31 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 23, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 80,440 lots, a decrease of 2,078 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,073 lots, a decrease of 9,045 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 31,633 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots from the previous week, with a slight reduction in net short positions - The sowing progress of Brazilian cotton is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% in the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6% [2]