投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-5 天胶反弹，其它偏震荡 逻辑：昨日商品情绪演继续回暖，天胶同样跟随小幅走高，整体依旧维持 多头趋势。前期的上涨主要是宏观氛围驱动，并无基本面变化，所以昨日 回落也不存在基本面的变化。目前来看近一个月运行区间上移，前期压力 位成为支撑位。当前交易逻辑我们认为或维持宏观影响为主。当前胶价基 本面相对偏弱，但预期尚可，所以也存在提前于基本面发生边际变化前开 始上涨的可能。目前基本面具体来说，海外供应季节性上量相对顺利，上 游供应目前仍相对充裕。而需求端来看，节前轮胎企业逢低采购，虽对现 货形成一定支撑，但总体并未出现大批量集中补库的情况。而当前最明面 的利空为较快的累库。但在资金炒作预期的背景下，盘面暂时易涨难跌。 展望：基本面变量有限，但当前资金关注度继续上升，盘面维持震荡。 风险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天气。 农业团队 油脂：⽣柴税收抵免政策发布，油脂⼩幅反弹 蛋⽩粕：购销清淡，双粕延续震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现窄幅震荡 ⽣猪：供需宽松，现货回调 天然橡㬵：多头情绪延续 合成橡㬵：⾼位震荡 棉花：节前窄幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - CBOT soybean futures experienced a short-term surge, with an overall daily increase of 1.60%, indicating a positive market trend for agricultural commodities [1] Group 1: Soybean and Related Futures - CBOT soybean futures rose by 1.60% during the day [1] - Soymeal futures increased by approximately 0.6% [1] - Soy oil futures saw a rise of 1.7% [1] Group 2: Other Grain Futures - CBOT corn futures increased by 0.4% [1] - Wheat futures quickly recovered losses during the trading session [1] - Bloomberg Grain Classification Index surged from around 28.90 points to a daily high of 29.4749 points, reflecting an overall daily increase of 1.10% [1]

每经AI快讯，2月4日，上期所沪银期货涨超7%，报24350元/千克。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 20 均 线附近。成交量较昨日增 44.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 12546 手；日内最高 1234， 最低 1201，收盘 1229，（较昨结算价）涨 25 元/吨，涨幅 2.08%。 2，现货市场：低位震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，徐州丰成停车检修，产量窄 幅下移。下游需求不温不火，保持随用随采。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环比下降 3.34%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views - Apple: In January 2026, the apple market showed a characteristic of divergence between the pulling of shipments by pre - holiday stocking in the production areas and the weak demand in the sales areas. Although the inventory removal speed accelerated, the inventory was still at a high level. The Spring Festival stocking drove the shipment of late - Fuji apples to accelerate month - on - month but slow down year - on - year. The price polarization was obvious. High - quality goods remained price - firm due to scarcity, while the general goods of fruit farmers were sold at a lower price due to the eagerness to sell. The market performance during the peak season was not prosperous due to the impact of substitute fruits [3]. - Red dates: The 2025 red date market had a production reduction, but the inventory overlay and insufficient consumption kept the prices under pressure. Although the pre - holiday stocking drove inventory removal, it was difficult to change the overall abundant supply pattern. The arrival volume in the sales areas increased month - on - month, but the actual sales were less than expected. Substitute products such as tangerines and nuts compressed the downstream sales space of red dates. The next 20 days are the key stocking period, and the market performance depends on the sales volume in the sales areas [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9485 yuan/ton, a change of +105 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +1.12%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.00 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1485, a change of - 105 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late - Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1085, a change of - 105 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - The apple trading situation in the production areas decreased slightly compared with the previous period, and the prices remained stable. Traders mainly shipped pre - packaged goods, and the overall packaging and shipping accelerated slightly. The transaction volume of general goods of fruit farmers in the main production areas was average, with mainly high - grade and third - grade fruits being sold. Some fruit farmers were more eager to sell. In Shaanxi, the transactions of fruit farmers' goods were mainly in small quantities of extreme - end goods, and traders mainly shipped their own inventory. In Gansu, the Jingzhuang area mainly shipped packaged goods of traders, and the trading in the Qingyang area improved. In Shandong, the transactions were average, mainly for gift - box purchases, with a small amount of 75 and third - grade goods being shipped out. The prices of fruit farmers' 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples in Qixia were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the 80 general goods were around 2.5 - 3 yuan/jin. The ex - warehouse price of general goods of fruit farmers in Shaanxi Luochuan was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the semi - commercial ex - warehouse price was 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin. The semi - commercial price of fruit farmers in Gansu Jingning was 5 - 6 yuan/jin, and the ex - warehouse price of general goods of fruit farmers was 3.7 - 5 yuan/jin. The stocking atmosphere in the production areas was average, and traders preferred to ship their own inventory. The transactions of fruit farmers' goods were concentrated in extreme - end goods, and the transactions of general goods were limited. In the sales areas, the number of arriving trucks increased, and gift - box products were gradually sold, but the sales were affected by competing fruits and were not fast. It is expected that the sales volume will increase slightly under the boost of stocking in the short term, and the prices will be slightly weak [2]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly yesterday. With the start of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the market demand increased significantly, and the trading activity improved significantly. In terms of circulation, the pre - holiday purchase demand was released rapidly, and the overall sales speed in the market accelerated. Some dealers still put pressure on the prices at the production end. The current price was still at a high level compared with substitute varieties such as tangerines and cherries, but the prices of high - quality goods remained firm. Attention should be paid to the actual consumption performance in the terminal market. In January 2026, the apple market showed a divergence between the production areas and the sales areas. Although the inventory removal speed accelerated, the inventory was still at a high level. The Spring Festival stocking drove the shipment of late - Fuji apples to accelerate month - on - month but slow down year - on - year. The price polarization was obvious. High - quality goods remained price - firm due to scarcity, while the general goods of fruit farmers were sold at a lower price due to the eagerness to sell. The sales in Shandong and Shaanxi were sluggish, and the transactions of fruit farmers' goods in Gansu were relatively concentrated. The average daily number of arriving trucks in the three major core markets in Guangdong decreased month - on - month, and the overall sales in the month were not smooth. The backlog in the transfer warehouses increased. Although the number of arriving trucks increased at the end of the month due to stocking, the terminal digestion was insufficient. Coupled with the price impact of substitute fruits such as tangerines and cherries, the market performance during the peak season was not prosperous [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8920 yuan/ton, a change of +100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +1.13%. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was - 920, a change of - 100 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - In the 2025 production season, the purchase price range of Xinjiang grey dates was 5.00 - 6.50 yuan/kg. The mainstream price of general goods in Aksu was 5.00 - 5.30 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.20 - 5.80 yuan/kg, in Kashgar was 6.20 - 6.40 yuan/kg, and in Maigaiti was 6.00 - 6.30 yuan/kg. The raw material purchase in the production areas was priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. On February 2, there were 5 trucks of goods arriving at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market. The reference price of special - grade dates was 8.00 yuan/kg, with average quality. Downstream buyers purchased according to demand. Small and medium - sized enterprises with self - purchased goods actively sold their inventory due to the limited pre - holiday stocking time. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 trucks of goods arrived, and the prices remained stable. Downstream buyers purchased according to demand, and the sales were okay. The market will be on holiday from the 25th of the twelfth lunar month to the eighth day of the first lunar month. According to traders, the logistics will stop operating from the 15th to the 23rd of the twelfth lunar month. The available trading time before the Spring Festival is limited, and it is expected that the prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price fluctuated sideways yesterday. Although the inventory removal speed has accelerated recently, the market supply is still sufficient due to the overlay of old and new goods, and the prices are under continuous pressure. As more buyers enter the market, the pressure on inventory sales has been relieved. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the terminal consumption has not increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the actual sales performance in the sales areas and the change in the festival consumption atmosphere during the Spring Festival. The red date purchase in the production areas has ended. The 2025 red date market had a production reduction, but the inventory overlay and insufficient consumption kept the prices under pressure. Although the pre - holiday stocking drove inventory removal, it was difficult to change the overall abundant supply pattern. The arrival volume in the sales areas increased month - on - month, but the actual sales were less than expected. Downstream traders were cautious in purchasing, and the sales were weak. At the same time, substitute products such as tangerines and nuts occupied the market, continuously compressing the downstream sales space of red dates. The next 20 days are the key stocking period. If the sales volume in the sales areas increases significantly, it may relieve the inventory pressure and support the prices in the short term; otherwise, the pressure will be further transmitted after the Spring Festival [7].

化工日报 | 2026-02-04 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16000元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15130元/吨，较前 一日变动+130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1945美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1890美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价12700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1677 亿元，同比增长2%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达929万吨，同比增长3.3%；出口金额为1611亿元，同比增 长1.8%。按条数计算，出口量达70,162万条，同比增长3.1%。 2025年12月我 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 单边：区间操作为主 美联储鹰派言论升温，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-03日沪镍主力合约2603开于132640元/吨，收于134830元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.25%，当日成交量 为663364（-144776）手，持仓量为101500（-9445）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈 "低开 — 探底 — 震荡回升" 的弱势整理走势，整体在宏观情绪与产业基本面博 弈下寻求支撑。宏观方面，隔夜美联储鹰派言论升温，市场担忧流动性收紧，引发大宗商品普跌，伦镍大幅下挫， 拖累沪镍开盘走弱。国内宏观政策相对稳定，但节前资金避险情绪上升，抑制价格反弹高度。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场与下游走势分化。受海外宏观消息影响，沪镍期货大幅调整，下游镍 铁价格随之回调。然而，镍矿端受前期极高的FOB成交成本支撑，CIF报价维持高位，难以松动。据悉，菲律宾1.4% 品位镍矿至印尼的CIF成交价已达到58-60美元，国内港口同品位报价也跟涨至相近水平。市场呈现僵持状态。镍 矿贸易商基于采购成本，报价坚挺。而下游镍铁厂因产品价格下跌，利润 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-04 长丝价格坚挺，产销维持低位 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期仍围绕伊朗局势波动。周一原油大幅下跌，地缘溢价回吐，Brent油价从上月末的70美元/桶附近下跌 至65~66美元/桶附近。上周末美伊释放出进行和谈的信号，同时伊朗官员表示，有关伊朗革命卫队计划在霍尔木兹 海峡举行军事演习的媒体报道是错误的，显示出地缘风险有降温信号。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN310美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX基本面未有明显变动，实货浮动价略有反 弹，PXN在近端累库下回撤。近期PX效益提升带来供应增加预期，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时需求端 检修计划陆续兑现，现实基本面偏弱。但PX中期预期依然较好，利润修复会带来PX二季度检修计划取消或推迟的 逻辑难证实，关注PX检修兑现和进口情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -68元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+3元/吨），PTA现货加工费376元/吨（环比变动-48元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费423元/吨（环比变动+21元/吨），基本面方面，聚酯工厂春节减产计划陆续兑现，PTA近端供 需趋累。中长期随着产能集中投放周期 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11160元/吨，较前交易日变动-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.53%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1150，较前交易日变动-500；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1820，较前交易日变动-10；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.92元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH03+320，较前交易日变动-430。 据农业农村部监测，2月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.95，比昨天下降0.17个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为132.84，比昨天下降0.20个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.56元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；牛肉66.13 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉64.73元/公斤，比昨天上升1.4%；鸡蛋8.58元/公斤，比昨天下降1.3%；白条鸡17.17 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 全国生猪价格震荡运行，多数地区呈现窄幅下行态势，南方局部地区仍有一定挺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass is showing a strong upward trend with supply - side disturbances, while soda ash is in a weak downward trend. For the double - silicon products, the market sentiment is cautious, and the alloys are fluctuating [1][3] - The overall strategy is that glass and silicon products are in a fluctuating state, while soda ash is in a weak fluctuating state [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong upward trend yesterday, and the spot market prices remained stable with good sales by manufacturers [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market showed a weak downward trend yesterday, and the spot market was cautious, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. Although some production lines have been gradually shut down for maintenance, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of glass production line shutdowns [1] - Soda ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has rebounded. Considering the future new production projects of soda ash and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, it is necessary to suppress the production profits of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Fluctuating [2] - Soda ash: Weakly fluctuating [2] 3.2 Double - Silicon Products (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated yesterday. Before the festival, steel mills' inventory replenishment has gradually ended, and mainstream steel mills have not launched a new round of tenders. The prices are relatively firm. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market fluctuated yesterday. The spot market transactions were average, and downstream inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved. There is an expected increase in molten iron production in the future, and the demand for silicon manganese will improve marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose. Recently, the South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, which may increase the cost of manganese ore in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of silicon iron and the power price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]