Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on May 14, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, totaling 92 billion yuan, matching the bidding amount and resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,035 billion yuan for the day [1] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions slightly increased, with the overnight rate rising by less than 1 basis point [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US stands at 4.28% [3] Group 2: Interbank Rates and Bonds - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.67%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [5] - The yields on major interbank bonds show slight variations, with one-year government bonds at 1.42% and ten-year government bonds at 1.67% [8] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds closed down by 0.23%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.12% and 0.13%, respectively [11] Group 3: Financial Data and Lending - In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 518.4 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 9.27 trillion yuan [12] - The total social financing scale for the first four months reached 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year [12] - The M2 money supply growth rate significantly increased to 8% year-on-year by the end of April, reflecting the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments [13] Group 4: Global Economic Insights - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member expressed concerns about rising household inflation expectations and noted the resilience of the UK labor market [15] Group 5: Bond Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced plans to enhance institutional innovation and accelerate the development of a multi-level REITs market [17] - Shaanxi Province successfully issued the first batch of technology innovation bonds in the country [17]

中国人民银行14日发布的金融统计数据显示，前4个月我国人民币贷款增加10.06万亿元，其中企（事） 业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元。 数据显示，4月末，我国人民币贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7.2%。分部门来看，前4个月，住户贷 款增加5184亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元，其中中长期贷款增加5.83万亿元。 从货币供应看，4月末，广义货币（M2）余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额 109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%。 另外，前4个月我国人民币存款增加12.55万亿元，其中住户存款增加7.83万亿元。 此外，同日发布的社会融资数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量为424万亿元，同比增长8.7%； 前4个月社会融资规模增量累计为16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元。 社融方面，王青分析，4月用于化债的地方政府债券大规模发行，成为带动新增社融同比增加的主因， 表明政府债券融资正在成为稳增长、控风险的主要抓手，这也是一揽子增量政策持续发力的具体体现。 除政府债券融资外，4月表外票据融资和企业债券融资也对社融起到了拉动作用。 "去年同期，政府专项债券和新增未贴现银行 ...

0:00 宏观政策是经济保持平稳运行的重要推动力。中国人民银行行长潘功胜近日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，中国人民银行将加大宏观调控强 度，推出10项政策，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，推动经济高质量发展。 ■中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏分析说，政策出台具有非常强的针对性。货币政策方面，设立服务消费与养老再贷款有助于引导金融机构 更好支持提振消费，稳定和扩大内需，巩固经济回升向好态势，推动经济更好实现高质量发展。 ■中金公司研究部副总经理、银行业分析师林英奇表示，这一轮降准降息能够进一步地畅通货币政策传导，全面降低实体经济融资成本，将 释放一万亿元左右的长期流动性，可以通过增加银行贷款的形式，更好地支持实体经济的复苏。 ■东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析说，货币金融政策着眼于有力应对外部环境的急剧变化、稳定国内宏观经济运行，开始在稳增长方向全 面发力。这是对4月25日中共中央政治局会议部署，加强超常规逆周期调节，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策的一个具体落实。 2025年5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会 介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。新华社记者 李贺 摄 ■潘功胜表示，系列政策措施将向金融机构提供 ...

Group 1: Monetary Credit Overview - The monetary credit and social financing scale have shown reasonable growth, with M2 increasing by 7.0% year-on-year and social financing stock growing by 8.4% as of the end of March [10][38][42] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates have decreased year-on-year, with specialized loans for small and medium enterprises and inclusive micro-loans growing faster than the overall loan growth rate [10][25][29] - The RMB exchange rate has remained stable at a reasonable equilibrium level, with the mid-price against the US dollar at 7.1782 yuan at the end of March, roughly unchanged from the end of the previous year [10][44] Group 2: Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain ample liquidity and optimize credit policy service quality [8][50] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the bidding method for the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and improved the macro-prudential framework to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [8][54] - The PBOC has also focused on preventing and resolving financial risks while enhancing cross-border trade and investment service capabilities [8][50] Group 3: Financial Market Performance - The financial market has remained stable overall, with an increase in bond issuance and a significant rise in stock market trading volume and fundraising [2][3] - The issuance rate of government bonds has decreased, while corporate bond issuance rates have increased, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [2][3] - Insurance premiums and assets have increased year-on-year, and there has been a rise in both spot and forward foreign exchange trading volumes [2][3] Group 4: Macroeconomic Situation - The global economic growth momentum is weakening, but China's economy has shown a good start with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter [2][11] - Consumption growth has rebounded, investment levels have stabilized, and both imports and exports have continued to grow, indicating a positive trend across agriculture, industry, and services [2][11] - The overall employment situation remains stable, and the international balance of payments is maintained at a basic equilibrium [2][11] Group 5: Monetary Policy Trends - The PBOC aims to maintain reasonable growth in financing and monetary supply, with a focus on guiding credit policy to support economic recovery [5][12] - The next phase will involve implementing a moderately loose monetary policy while balancing short-term and long-term goals, as well as internal and external equilibria [11][12] - The PBOC will continue to deepen financial reform and promote high-quality financial development while ensuring the stability of the financial system [11][12]

Group 1 - The central government has emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announcing a series of measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [2][5] - The PBOC's recent report indicates that monetary policy will continue to support the economy, focusing on implementation and effectiveness evaluation [2][5] - The report highlights the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments due to external uncertainties affecting exports, particularly from U.S. tariff policies [3][4] Group 2 - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to support fiscal policy, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds [4] - The PBOC aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market to support these fiscal measures, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report outlines specific policy tools to support sectors such as technology finance, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in new funding [7] Group 3 - The PBOC is maintaining a focus on the stability of the financial markets, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in the international financial markets due to U.S. trade policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, reflecting concerns over banks' net interest margins [5][9] - The PBOC's assessment of government debt sustainability indicates that China's fiscal policy still has room for expansion, supporting the notion of continued monetary easing [10] Group 4 - The report expands its focus to include various economic indicators, such as the evolution of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and the sustainability of government debt, reflecting a comprehensive approach to monetary policy [9][10] - The PBOC acknowledges the current low inflation environment and the need for policies that stimulate effective demand while managing supply-side constraints [10][11] - The overall strategy involves deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policy measures to achieve a balance between supply and demand, while fostering a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [11]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 中美阶段性互降关税有何影响 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 17 期） 频率：每周 中美阶段性互降关税将缓解短期内国内经济和政策压力并提升市场风险偏好水 平。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《谈判的底气——宏观与大 类资产周报》2025-05-11 2、《票据融资或创新高——4 月金融数据预测》2025-05-09 3、《央国企动态系列报告之 38 ——央企盈利略有放缓，价值 创造能力保持领先优势》2025- 05-07 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 中美经贸磋商为何能达成超预期的成果？正如我们此前的报告和路演中所提 到了，中美贸易摩擦对两国的冲击是有所区别的。对美国而言，将中国排除 其供应链体系，美国供给将出现较大缺口。按照美方数据，去年自中国进口 金额占比达到 13%。而供给 ...

Group 1: Trade Tariff Changes - The overall tariff level imposed by the U.S. on China will decrease from 145% to approximately 30% within the next 90 days[1] - The current U.S. tariffs consist of a 20% fentanyl tariff and a 34% "reciprocal tariff," which will be reduced to 10% in the next 90 days[2] - The U.S. has committed to canceling an additional 91% retaliatory tariffs imposed since April 8, 2025, while China will also eliminate corresponding retaliatory measures[3] Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be around -1%, with a potential reduction in exports by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB based on a 30% tariff level[3] - The future trajectory of the fentanyl tariff may see gradual reductions, as discussions on this issue were highlighted in recent negotiations[4] - The "reciprocal tariff" is expected to stabilize above 10% after the initial 90-day period, reflecting ongoing trade deficit concerns[5] - The necessity for significant counter-cyclical policy adjustments in China is expected to decrease, with a positive outlook for technology stocks due to improved market risk appetite[8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain in a mid - term shock pattern, with the stock - bond seesaw being an important influencing factor. The increase in bond supply will be a mid - term negative for the bond market, and the bond market may return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic later [2][30]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the expected reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, and the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation made progress, which repaired market risk appetite. The rise of the stock market pressured the bond market, and the supply of ultra - long - term treasury bonds still affected the bond market, which remained in a shock state [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In April, China's CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI rose by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [15]. - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [15]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan. Consumers bought 3.56 million units of 12 major categories of household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan, and 2.42 million pieces of digital products such as mobile phones, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [16]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th, achieving important consensus and substantial progress [16]. - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, turning from a 3.3% year - on - year decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase. In March, the profit turned from a 0.3% decline in January - February to a 2.6% increase. Nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth, and the manufacturing industry improved significantly, with a 7.6% profit growth in the first quarter, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points [16]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption were implemented. Although there was no large - scale stimulus policy, detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chain were continuously introduced. The economic data showed a mixed picture, with the consumer market being active during the "May Day" holiday, but the manufacturing PMI declining in April [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspects - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Most money market interest rates declined [20]. 3.3 Capital Aspects - Although the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and policy interest rate did not change significantly, bond market interest rates and DR007 decreased significantly, indicating a certain degree of loose capital. There was still an expectation of further monetary easing, which would support the bond market. However, due to the partial implementation of monetary easing, the probability of significant monetary easing in the near term was low, and the bond market was still influenced by the stock - bond seesaw logic [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The government debt combination in 2025 included a 4% deficit ratio, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds, with the broad deficit ratio reaching 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. As of March 3rd this year, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, with the issuance significantly accelerating compared to the same period of the previous year [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio was still at a relatively high level although it had declined from the historical high, indicating that the cost - performance of allocating to the bond market was low. Institutions were more likely to focus on stock market opportunities. The bond market was in a wide - range shock, and its short - term trend was greatly affected by the stock market, but it might return to the economic fundamentals later [27]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Politburo meeting in April, the bond supply may increase, which is a mid - term negative for the bond market. The bond market will return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic, and the stock - bond seesaw will still be an important influencing factor. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the mid - term, and investors should pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [30].

Core Viewpoint - The press conference held by the State Council's Information Office emphasized a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and addressing the complex domestic and international economic landscape [1] Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced ten monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, expected to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - Structural adjustments included a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various special tool interest rates to 1.5% and an increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation by 300 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [2] Support for Key Sectors - The policy aims to enhance support for agriculture and small enterprises by increasing the re-lending quota by 300 billion yuan, coupled with interest rate reductions to stimulate demand [3] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the first home loan rate from 2.85% to 2.6%, which is expected to stabilize the real estate market [3] Market Impact - The measures are expected to optimize liquidity and funding costs, enhancing financial support for market stability and reducing the debt burden for enterprises and residents [4] - The emphasis on "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "moderately loose monetary policy" is likely to boost market confidence and stabilize expectations for economic recovery [4][5] Structural Support and Capital Market - The targeted support for sectors such as technological innovation and inclusive finance is anticipated to create market hotspots and improve confidence in the capital market [5] - The capital market is expected to maintain active trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 3300 points, potentially attracting new capital into the market [6]

日前，中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")发布的《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》(以下简称《报 告》)提出，今年以来，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化逆周期调节，为经济持续回升向好创造了 适宜的货币金融环境。 市场人士表示，在各项货币政策支持下，货币信贷合理增长，社会综合融资成本稳步下行，信贷结构进 一步优化，持续多年、多次降准降息的累积效应不断显现，社会融资环境总体处于较为宽松状态。 《报告》明确，下阶段，央行将平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部均衡、支持实体 经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性，增强宏观政策协调 配合，扩大国内需求，稳定预期、激发活力，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 灵活把握政策 实施力度和节奏 对于下一阶段货币政策主要思路，《报告》强调"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"。同时还明确，"落实好 中央政治局会议精神，积极落地5月推出的一揽子金融政策"。 在5月7日国新办举行新闻发布会上，央行行长潘功胜宣布了三大类共10项金融政策，包括降准、降息、 创设并优化结构性货币政策工具、推出支持科技创新的新政策工具等。 业内专家表示，这一揽子政 ...