Group 1: US-Vietnam Trade Agreement - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, with all Vietnamese exports to the US facing at least a 20% tariff [2][3][4] - Vietnam is a significant supplier of textiles and sportswear, with major brands like Nike, Gap, and Lululemon operating in the country [4] - In 2022, Vietnam was the sixth-largest source of imports to the US, with exports close to $137 billion [4] Group 2: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 30% or 35% on Japanese imports, which is an increase from the previously proposed 24% [5][8] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of trade over tariffs, highlighting Japan's role as the largest foreign investor in the US [8] - Japan is seeking a mutually beneficial agreement through ongoing negotiations, despite the challenges posed by the US's tariff threats [9] Group 3: EU-US Trade Negotiations - As the July 9 deadline approaches, EU member states are adopting a tougher stance in negotiations with the US, insisting on the removal of tariffs as part of any framework agreement [10][11] - The US currently imposes a 25% tariff on EU automobiles and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products, with potential expansions to other sectors [11] - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures, including a proposal for tariffs on $950 billion worth of US goods, while also considering a previous decision to impose tariffs on $210 billion of US exports [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July, with a general bearish outlook on the US dollar due to increased uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal policies [2][4]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Dollar Outlook - The market is anticipating the results of the US tariff negotiations set for July 9, with a significant focus on the implications for the US dollar and non-US currencies [3][4]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has declined over 7%, while Asian currencies have rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][3]. - The Senate's passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to exacerbate the US fiscal deficit, further impacting the dollar's sustainability [3][4]. Group 2: Defensive Assets and Hong Kong Market - In light of the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, defensive assets have become a primary choice for investors, with the Hong Kong stock market positioned to attract more capital due to its low absolute valuations [2][6]. - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) has seen a significant decline, with one-month Hibor dropping to 0.52% and overnight Hibor nearing 0%, indicating strong market liquidity [7]. - The Hong Kong market is viewed as a new safe haven for global capital, with expectations of a multi-year depreciation cycle for the US dollar, leading to increased international investment in Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Trends in Hong Kong - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains significantly lower than that of US markets, with the Hang Seng Index projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% by 2025 [8]. - The influx of global and southbound capital is driving a revaluation of undervalued blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong, with notable growth in the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend ETF [8].

（原标题：部长看好关税谈判 皮猜率团访问美国） 皮猜表示，泰国在这些谈判中的做法是优先考虑国家利益，同时也考虑到 美国面临的制约，目的是实现符合双方需求的双赢结果。除关税相关问题外， 还将讨论非关税壁垒，如法规、规则和与贸易有关的不便。他补充说，这为泰 国审查和改进其法规提供了一个很好的机会，以促进更顺畅的进出口业务。 据皮猜称，美国贸易代表（USTR）已与许多国家举行了会谈。然而，目 前尚不清楚这些谈判取得了多大进展，尽管有一些传言，但没有一个国家轻易 达成最终协议。因此，他指出，人们相信，最终可能会推迟实施新的关税税 率。至于税率为36%的泰国，外界猜测实际税率可能降至18%。皮猜解释说， 这只是一个学术预测，用于评估对经济增长的潜在影响，美国将对泰国商品征 收的实际税率仍然未知，并指出税率很可能低于18%。皮猜表示，泰国的谈判 立场是，无论美国征收多少税率，唯一的要求是，泰国的税率不要高于其他国 家，以保持其竞争力。他认为，其他国家可能也有同样的看法。 据曼谷邮报7月1日报道，副总理兼财政部长皮猜乐观地认为，与美国的贸 易谈判将达成一项互利的协议。他承认，这是每个人都关心的问题，特别是在 对等关税措施接 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of the Japan-U.S. trade negotiations revolves around tariffs, particularly in the agricultural sector, which Japan is unwilling to compromise on despite U.S. pressure [3][4] - Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hiroshi Matsuno, emphasized that Japan will not sacrifice its agricultural interests in the negotiations, marking a clear "red line" in the discussions [4] - The agricultural sector, while not a dominant part of Japan's economy, holds significant cultural and social value, making it a sensitive topic in negotiations [3] Group 2 - Japan's firm stance indicates a commitment to protecting its agricultural industry while still seeking a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the U.S. [4] - The response from Japan may shift the focus of negotiations towards other sectors such as automobiles and digital products, as well as U.S. demands in service trade and intellectual property [5] - The outcome of these negotiations could have broader implications for the Asia-Pacific economic landscape, potentially influencing regional trade agreements like RCEP and CPTPP [5]

热点资讯 1、中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。会议强调，要依法依规 治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行 动，健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系。要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积 极参与发展海洋经济。 2、6月财新中国制造业PMI录得50.4，高于5月2.1个百分点，与4月持平，重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间，创近七个月来新高。 早盘速递 2025/7/2 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动（手） 2025-07-01 2025-06-30 2025-06-27 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly, while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation begins to weaken, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.5%. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, and the position of Shanghai lead is 83,801 lots, an increase of 239 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -179 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 46,439 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,039 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,925 yuan/ton and 17,140 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the lead main contract is -75 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -250 US dollars/ton, a decline of 4.88% [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The supply and demand balance of lead in WBMS is 0.71 million tons. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is -16.33%, and the output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, a decline of 6.75%. The average operating rate of primary lead is 2.96%, and the output is 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons. The refined lead import volume is -1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of refined lead is 223.33 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 20,500 units, with no change. The output of automobiles is 264.2 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. The output of new energy vehicles is 7.3 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. Trump does not consider extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline and doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan. The US Senate passes the "big and beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to vote this week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, having largely completed the macroeconomic impact recovery process, with the Hang Seng Index approaching its March high due to themes in new consumption and pharmaceuticals [1][2] Market Conditions - The recent rise in the Hong Kong stock market is supported by a significant reduction in tariff uncertainties and a stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, alongside ample liquidity in the Hong Kong dollar market [2][3] - Despite the favorable liquidity environment, the Hang Seng Technology Index remains in a sideways trend, indicating that strong upward catalysts are still needed for the technology sector [2] Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present a favorable window for investors, particularly as the technology sector has seen a release of valuation pressure, transitioning from a structural market to a broader rally [3] - The improvement in risk sentiment and liquidity provides a necessary foundation for the next phase of technology stock rallies, with the potential for significant upward movement as the narrative themes evolve [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and Japan, particularly focusing on the issue of rice imports and tariffs, highlighting conflicting statements from President Trump and Japanese officials regarding Japan's acceptance of U.S. rice and the accuracy of tariff claims [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Relations - President Trump criticized Japan for not accepting U.S. rice, claiming Japan is facing a significant rice shortage while refusing imports [1]. - Trump's comments are seen as an attempt to pressure Japan during stalled tariff negotiations, emphasizing that Japan has historically been protected in its rice market [1][2]. - The Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Koizumi, countered Trump's claims, stating that imports of foreign rice, including from the U.S., have increased 120 times compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations - Trump previously stated that if no agreement is reached by July 9, he would inform countries of new tariff rates, specifically mentioning a potential 25% tariff on Japanese cars [1][2]. - The article notes that the Trump administration has achieved limited results in trade negotiations, with only two significant agreements: one with the UK and another easing tensions with China [2]. - Koizumi defended Japan's stance in negotiations, asserting that the country is committed to protecting its national interests despite external pressures [3].

特朗普威胁对日本征收更高关税 智通财经7月2日电，据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间7月1日，美国总统特朗普在乘机途中对媒体表示，对 美日关税谈判前景表达强烈质疑。他将矛头直指日本在"大米"及"汽车贸易"两大领域的政策，他威胁称 美国或将对日本进口商品加征"30%或35%的关税"，而这高于他在4月2日提出的24%关税的税率。日本 广播协会（NHK）驻华盛顿记者表示，特朗普对日本汽车产业的不满根深蒂固，这一关税威胁将使得 日美谈判迎来极其严峻的局面。 ...

1. 韩国央行行长李昌镛：仍继续处于宽松周期中。在决定是否进一步降息时，将密切关注金融稳定风 险。 1. 鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否过早 不排除任何一次会议。 2. 特朗普：不考虑延长关税谈判最后期限 可能提高日本关税。 3. "美联储传声筒"：鲍威尔保持灵活性 降息决策因素发生转变。 4. 美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高。 5. 美国财政部长贝森特：相信美联储会在秋季之前降息，但最迟在9月份肯定会降息。 6. 特朗普税收法案在参议院通过。美国众议院定于当地时间周三就法案进行辩论并投票。 1. 日本央行行长植田和男：当前利率低于中性水平。任何加息措施都将取决于通胀动态的三个要素。 2. 欧洲央行行长拉加德：并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到。必须保持对通胀的高度警惕。 3. 英国央行行长贝利：利率的走向仍然呈现下行趋势。终端利率的水平存在巨大的不确定性。 4. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧元兑美元汇率在1.17是完全可以接受的，即便是升至1.20，也在可容忍范 围内。但如果进一步超过1.20，情况可能会变得较为复杂。 5. 欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：欧元进一步大幅上涨可能会增加再次降息的理由。 6 ...