联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 1 元至 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 7334 手至 16.46 万手，空头持仓减少 6129 手至 18.83 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | | | | 4、印度 NFL 发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购 150 万吨（西海岸 80 万吨东海岸 | | 能源与化 | 尿素 ...

Price Analysis - The main contract for industrial silicon showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with prices rising from 8685 CNY/ton to 8800 CNY/ton, a cumulative increase of approximately 2.19%. The highest price reached 8940 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 8555 CNY/ton, with overall volatility controlled within 4% [2][3] - The spot price for industrial silicon remained stable, with slight increases in some specifications. As of December 25, the price for SMM East China 553 silicon was between 9200-9300 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton week-on-week, while 441 silicon remained stable at 9300-9500 CNY/ton [2][3] Supply Dynamics - Recent trends indicate a reduction in industrial silicon supply, with a current supply still relatively loose under a dual reduction in supply and demand. Silicon producers are facing pressure on prices due to their sales, while stable raw material prices provide cost support [3][4] - In the southwestern region, production levels have stabilized at low levels, with manufacturers holding inventory but showing weak willingness to sell due to low market prices and weak downstream purchasing capacity. In contrast, some manufacturers in the northwestern region have increased production, providing some price support [3][4] Demand Insights - According to SMM statistics, the expected domestic polysilicon production for December is 113,500 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1 tons month-on-month, indicating stability. Overall, industrial silicon demand is showing a slight decline as the year-end approaches [3][4] Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions is reported at 555,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [3][4] Cost and Profitability - Production costs for metallic silicon have increased slightly this week, primarily due to rising electricity prices in Sichuan. However, prices for raw materials such as petroleum coke, quartz, and electrodes remain stable. Future costs are expected to stabilize [4][5] - The overall production cost of industrial silicon remains stable, with raw material prices holding steady. The increase in prices has led to a rise in industrial silicon profits [4][5] Market Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with upward potential dependent on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory reduction progress. Downward pressure is limited by cost support and expectations of production cuts [5][6] Polysilicon Market Overview - The main contract for polysilicon exhibited a wide range of fluctuations this week, with prices peaking at 61,150 CNY/ton and dropping to 57,025 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly decline of 2.14% [7][8] - The latest weekly polysilicon production is reported at 25,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.20%. The overall supply for December continues to show a contraction trend, although the decrease is not significant [8][9] Demand and Inventory in Polysilicon - The overall demand for polysilicon is contracting due to a seasonal slowdown, with downstream production cuts leading to weak purchasing activity. High inventory levels are causing downstream companies to lack motivation for replenishment [8][9] - The latest polysilicon inventory is reported at 303,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.41% [8][9] Cost Structure in Polysilicon - Current cost changes in the polysilicon industry are minimal, with most companies reporting a total cost of around 45,000 CNY/ton, except for a few with lower electricity prices [8][9] Future Price Expectations - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in the range of 57,000 to 61,000 CNY/ton, awaiting further clarity on the fundamentals. Short-term focus will be on new silicon wafer prices and January production plans, while long-term attention will be on the implementation of storage policies and inventory reduction progress [10][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting various actions such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overseas precious metals rose on Friday, with silver up over 10%. The RMB strengthened, and the CME will raise margins. Gold ETFs saw small inflows. Suggest going long on gold and staying on the sidelines for silver due to high volatility [1]. - **Silver**: Speculative sentiment is strong, with short - term upside potential but increased future volatility. It's recommended to wait and see [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price continued to rise, driven by precious metals and short - covering. Supply of copper ore remains tight, while downstream demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with high - load production on the supply side and a slight decline in demand. The positive macro - atmosphere and copper price breakthrough boost sentiment [2]. - **Alumina**: It has staged a rebound but is constrained by over - supply. The short - term trend may be weak rebounds with high volatility [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. With balanced supply and demand and potential production cut rumors, it's better to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current price is likely to rise due to the anticipation of higher prices in 2026, despite the Q1 demand slump [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price may rise, but short - term chasing risks are high. It's recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [3]. - **Tin**: The price continued to rise. Supply recovery is slow, and demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [3][4]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are undervalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The market will likely oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the valuation is moderately high. It's better to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are overvalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is likely to be volatile, depending on South American production. The domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [6]. - **Corn**: The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [6][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to be volatile, with a focus on future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: The futures market suggests shorting, and selling call options is also recommended [7]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to buy at low prices, with a price reference range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention to recent slaughter volume [7]. - **Apples**: It's recommended to wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday sales [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and there are opportunities to go long on PTA processing margins in the 05 contract [8]. - **Rubber**: It's recommended to gradually close long positions around 16000 yuan/ton due to weak upward momentum [9]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is downward, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. - **PP**: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: With a continuous inventory build - up, it's recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is likely to exceed demand at the end of the year and in Q1. It's recommended to short at high prices, considering geopolitical events [9][10]. - **EB**: In the short - term, the market may oscillate. In the second quarter, it's advisable to go long on styrene or use the inverse spread strategy for pure benzene [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing while demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [10].

甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2161（-4/-0.18%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1860 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2040 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1870 元/吨，山西地区报价 2000 元/吨，河南地区报价 2060 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2160 元/吨，鲁北报价 2130 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2090 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2060 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2130 元/吨，宁波报价 2170 元/吨，广州报价 2100 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 12 月 25 日，江浙地区 MTO 装置周均产能利用率 69.13%，较上周下跌 0.97 个百分点，江苏部分装置负荷略有调整。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格稳定，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，招标加点上涨，非伊开工提升， 外盘整体开工低位，欧美 ...

氧化铝期货主力合约直线拉升涨近3%，现报2719元/吨。 氧化铝期货主力合约直线拉升涨近3%，现报2719元/吨。 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 止盈观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开单谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡筑底 | ...

生猪： 周四，生猪主力2603合约震荡收十字星，生猪期价在长期均线支撑处企稳，期价呈现偏强表现。全国生 猪现货报价稳定为主，黑龙江市场生猪主流成交价格11.14元/公斤，较昨日价格持平；吉林市场主流成 交价格11.21元/公斤，较昨日价格持平；辽宁地区生猪出栏主流价格11.39元/公斤，较昨日价格下跌0.01 元/公斤；内蒙古市场主流成交价格为11.17元/公斤，较昨日价格下跌0.01元/公斤。现东北地区中大猪挺 价心理持续，价格暂无明显波动，今日中大猪价格低价11.2元/公斤，高价11.80元/公斤，标肥价差震荡 走扩。广东市场生猪出栏均价为11.98元/公斤 ，较昨日价格稳定，与赣桂湘均价价差0.78元/公斤， 规 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： 周四，CBOT大豆因节日休市，今日恢复交易。之前美豆小幅上涨，因空头获利平仓。市场谨慎看待中 国采购步伐。之前美国农业部周二发布的出口销售报告显示，截至12月11日，美豆单周净销售239.62万 吨，其中对中国净销售138.3万吨。国内方面，两粕震荡走高。豆粕现货成交环比减少，但依然高于上 周同期。成交集中在远期合约， ...

发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 1，期货市场：纯碱主力日内震荡，收十字星。成交量较昨日减 12.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日减 4142 手；日内最高 1195，最低 1174，收盘 1184，（较昨日结 算价）涨 6 元/吨，涨幅 0.51%。 2，现货市场：价格成交重心下移。企业装置大稳小动，个别产量提升，供 应有所增加。企业发货前期订单为主，库存震荡下行。下游需求表现一般，观望 情绪浓郁，低价刚需补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 116 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 进出口方面，11 月份国内纯碱出口量 18.94 万吨，环比-2.51 万吨。1-11 月累计出口量 196.12 万吨，较去年同期增加 92.25 万吨。11 月份国内纯碱进口 量在 0.025 万吨。1-11 月累计进口量为 2.17 万吨，较去年同期减少 94.67 万吨， 跌幅 97.76%。11 月份国内纯碱净出口 18.92 万吨；1-11 月累计净出口 193.95 万吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71 ...

F03118729、F3013727 期货从业证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 25 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 14295 | 85 | 48,165 | 3561 | 155,084 | -14309 | | CF05合约 | 14255 | 75 | 297,416 | 55610 | 835,075 | 20504 | | CF09合约 | 14430 | 85 | 18,800 | 6440 | 43,382 | 3227 | | CY01合约 | 20190 | 65 | 85 | 70 | 819 | -40 | | CY05合约 | 20385 | 135 | 38 | 9 | 112 | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views PTA - The near - term PTA market is tight. The seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is lower than in previous years. The recent rebound is significant, and there are marginal demand feedbacks. Consider buying on dips [5][48]. - The supply side has multiple device maintenance plans. The demand side shows that the polyester load remains high in the short - term, but downstream orders are weakening [48]. PX - The overall pattern of PX is expected to be good. It is increasing in volume and price. Short - term supply - demand changes are small, and PXN has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to capital changes [6][74]. - The domestic PX operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. There are maintenance and restart plans for some devices [6][74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - The supply of ethylene glycol has marginal improvements, with more overseas maintenance. Polyester has marginal production reduction plans. In December, supply - demand pressure is not large, but seasonal inventory accumulation is expected. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [7][121]. - The supply side has device load adjustments and overseas maintenance. The demand side shows that the polyester load is high, but terminal orders are slightly weakening [121]. Summary by Related Catalogs Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 79% (- 4%), 62% (- 5%), and 70% (-). Polyester production and sales have increased due to downstream restocking [9]. - As of December 19, the polyester load is around 91.1%. The polyester cash - flow is squeezed, and the average inventory is around 13.5 days. The inventory of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber is 13.3, 25.6, 13.4, and 7.2 days respectively. The polyester load is expected to be 91% in December and 88% in January [13][14][36]. PTA - Device changes: YS Ningbo plans to restart this week. New materials have maintenance plans in January - February. Ineos 110 plans to restart this weekend, while Ineos 125 will reduce its load and may have maintenance later. Sichuan Energy Investment's restart is postponed to early January. YS Dahua, Hainan, and Dushan 1 are still under maintenance. The maintenance volume in January - February 2026 is not low [42]. - Inventory: As of December 19, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has decreased to 210 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons. PTA factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory have slightly decreased [43]. - Balance sheet: The near - term is tight. The maintenance of suppliers in January - February is high, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is not high [48]. PX - Market performance: Recently, PX has been strong. The Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits have improved significantly. The PXN has strengthened to over 350, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed [64][67]. - Device dynamics: The domestic operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. Tianjin Petrochemical plans maintenance at the beginning of next week, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. In Asia, GS disproportionation is shut down, Taiwan FCFC is operating at 70% capacity, Japan ENEOS restarted a small line last weekend, and Japan Idemitsu's 200,000 - ton device plans to restart at the end of the month [69]. - Balance sheet: The supply - demand is in a loose balance. The price has risen in advance, and the PXN has rebounded to around 350. Pay attention to capital changes [74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Device load: As of December 19, the overall ethylene glycol load is 71.93%, and the coal - based load is 75%. The oil - based process has more maintenance and load - reduction [91]. - Device maintenance: Many domestic and overseas devices have maintenance plans. New devices such as Ningxia Changyi are in the process of increasing production [95][97][110]. - Profit: The profit of ethylene glycol has been compressed. The oil - based process is in a loss, and the loss of the coal - based process has increased [98]. - Import: Overseas device maintenance is high. The arrivals in November - December are not low, but may decrease in January - February [110]. - Inventory: As of December 22, the port inventory in East China is about 71.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 tons. The polyester factory's raw material inventory days have slightly increased [116]. - Balance sheet: The supply has marginal improvements. The balance pressure in December is not large, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [121].