Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariff remarks by Trump on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real demand for steel is difficult to reverse. It is necessary to focus on the policy intensity and direction before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][3]. - The price of iron ore fluctuates weakly. Although the short - term hot metal output is strong, the demand contradiction is mainly in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, the price of iron ore may be adjusted accordingly. The overall terminal demand is weak, and there are continuous macro - disturbances [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do long may be higher than short - selling. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session. The key time node may be around the Fourth Plenary Session in mid - October [8]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term. After the southwest region enters the dry season, the supply pressure will be reduced, and the cost support will be enhanced. The price of silicon materials is in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. - The glass market is weak. The demand is less than expected, and the inventory is increasing. The soda ash market is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 7008 tons to 273365 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 38714 hands to 1.991462 million hands. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 40 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3241 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 594 tons to 29778 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 29205 hands to 1.451729 million hands. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The new round of tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment, but the direct impact on steel was limited. The real demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. In the short - term, steel prices may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the overall trend may not change under the loose macro - environment. It is necessary to focus on the policy before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.80% (- 22.50). The positions increased by 14460 hands to 499800 hands, and the weighted positions were 832000 hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.67% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of steel products during the holiday was not low, and the destocking after the holiday was under test. The price of iron ore fluctuated weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5738 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the main contract. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed at 5378 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 272 yuan/ton over the main contract [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, but the port inventory of manganese ore was low, and the price was relatively strong. Ferrosilicon also lacked obvious contradictions. For the black sector, it was considered that finding callback positions to do long was more cost - effective. The price may first decline and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8520 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (- 285). The weighted positions increased by 13354 hands to 442719 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 780 yuan/ton and 380 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 49990 yuan/ton, up 2.56% (+ 1250). The weighted positions increased by 7164 hands to 253779 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2760 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to reduced supply pressure and enhanced cost support in the dry season. The price of silicon materials was in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1138 yuan/ton, down 3.48% (- 41). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+ 5.84%) to 6282.4 million cases. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 1.04% (- 13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%) to 165.98 million tons [17][19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market was weak. The demand of downstream processing enterprises was less than expected, and the inventory was increasing. The soda ash market was expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US officially imposed restrictions such as port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposed this and announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., highlighting China's determination to counter in key areas [7]. - For LPG, the price of domestic propane at the cost of arrival (tax - included) is basically below 4,000 yuan/ton. The demand has increased significantly, but it has not rebounded under speculative demand. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign is clear, which is bullish for the long - short spread on the futures market, but the impact of Sino - US trade disputes and crude oil price trends should be noted [9][10]. - For cotton, the short - term trend is stable. Before mid - November, attention should be paid to the development of international economic and trade situations. The short - term trend of cotton futures is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it will be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in shipping capacity in November. The recent sharp rise was affected by China's counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean, but it has no substantial impact on the European line. The fundamentals show that most shipping companies are expected to be fully loaded in week 43, and the no - show rate needs further observation [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs. The Fed Chairman Powell hinted at another interest rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing the end, which is favorable for gold prices [21]. - **Silver**: The contradiction in the spot market has eased, and the price has risen and then fallen [21]. - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is volatile. The production of Codelco in Chile has decreased, and China's copper imports in September have shown different trends [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The trend is weakly volatile. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates affects the market, and inventory and price data show certain changes [28]. - **Lead**: The inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The Fed's interest - rate policy also has an impact on the lead market [31]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The price of tin has declined, and inventory and price differences have changed [34]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within a certain interval. Alumina's price center moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [38]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the nickel price is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel is under pressure from both the macro - environment and the actual situation, but the cost limits the downward space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is improving, and the warehouse receipts are being cleared. The short - term trend is relatively strong [44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is weak [47]. - **Polysilicon**: Meetings are being held this week, and the futures market is expected to rise [48]. 3.2 Building Materials and Energy - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed, and relevant policies have an impact on the market [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current situation is weak, and the expectation has also weakened. Steel prices may decline slightly [54]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The quotations in the main production areas are unstable, and the prices fluctuate widely. The prices of manganese ore at ports have moved down [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and the prices fluctuate widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [61][62]. - **Log**: The price oscillates repeatedly [64]. 3.3 Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: The medium - term trend remains weak [17]. - **MEG**: The spread between January and May contracts is in a reverse - arbitrage situation [17]. - **Rubber**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trend is weak [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price has declined following the oil price [17]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The trends are weak [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not short in the short term [17]. - **Pulp**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of raw glass is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: The price is under pressure and oscillates [17]. - **Urea**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [17]. - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has not changed much [17]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The driving force from the origin is limited. Attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves within a certain range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The trade concerns have resurfaced, and the prices may rebound and oscillate [20]. - **Corn**: The price has rebounded [20]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates within a certain range [20]. - **Egg**: The price oscillates [20]. - **Live Pig**: The bottom of the spot price has not been reached [20]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand of pure benzene remains weak, with petroleum benzene profits staying at a relatively low level. This week, the restart of some domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene plants is expected to further increase pure benzene production. In October, new downstream plants of styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with a converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene. However, large - scale styrene plants are still in the maintenance period, and there are expectations of a decline in the load of caprolactam, phenol, and adipic acid plants this week, resulting in a persistently weak demand side in the short term. The market sentiment is weak due to the ongoing Sino - US trade dispute, and the downward trend of the BZ2603 contract may continue [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5,597 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the settlement price was 5,624 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan. The trading volume was 5,926 lots, down 742 lots; the open interest was 14,189 lots, up 635 lots. The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,510 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the Northeast region, it was 5,505 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 690 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 703.08 US dollars/ton, down 3.02 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 64.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.7 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 566.75 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 46.02 tons, up 0.32 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 9.1 tons, down 1.5 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 73.61%, up 2.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.55% to 79.29%, and that of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 0.75% to 63.24%. The weighted开工率 of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56% to 77.72%. As of October 13th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 9.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The BZ2603 contract fell 1.93% to close at 5,597 yuan/ton. From October 9th to 11th, the profit of Chinese petroleum benzene was 314 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton from the previous week [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4692 | -29 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 736644 | 94686 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1254279 | 19246 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 921931 | 15375 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1077284 | 17675 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -155353 | -2300 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4890 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4625 | -19.23 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4845 | -40 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4694.38 | -5 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) | 700 | 0 PVC:东南亚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "Bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, affected by weekend trade dispute news, the A-share market opened significantly lower and closed slightly down. The long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged so far. Short - term IV decline may be a buying opportunity, and one can allocate a small position in November out - of - the - money call options. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. If leveraged funds leave the market in the short term, it may affect the valuation of technology stocks [1] - For treasury bonds, the central bank's support has led to a marginal loosening of the money market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment, so treasury bonds will be strong next week. However, due to the cooling of policy interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of quasi - fiscal tools, treasury bonds lack the impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Affected by trade disputes, A - share market indices such as Wind All A, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all declined. Short - term trade disputes may impact the index, but long - term momentum depends on internal policies. The adjustment of margin conversion ratios by some domestic brokers may affect technology stocks. One can consider small - position layout of November out - of - the money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures of different maturities all rose. The central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The money market marginally loosened, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. Although the bonds will be strong next week, they lack the power for a large - scale upward movement [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: Contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined compared to the previous period, with declines ranging from 0.47% to 0.64% [4] - **Stock Indices**: Indices including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines between 0.19% and 0.50% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL all rose, with increases from 0.02% to 0.41% [4] Market News - On October 13, customs data showed that in September, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both increased year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% and imports by 7.4% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of main contracts and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [14][17][18][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Displays the trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the trends of the US dollar index and currency pairs such as euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [22][23][24][26][28]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The market is operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3 Industry background - The Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, which is a just measure to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises and the fair competition environment of international shipping [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, the imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [2] Steel export and import data - In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, an increase of 95.5 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - In September, China imported 54.8 tons of steel, an increase of 4.8 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 9.6%. From January to September, the cumulative steel imports were 453.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% [2] Market performance - The prices of finished products fell yesterday, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil reached new recent lows. The market was more affected by Sino - US trade disputes, and the market risk sentiment cooled down [2] - During the National Day holiday, the fundamentals of finished products were relatively calm, and the weak downstream terminals continued to suppress steel prices. There was a slight differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coil, with hot - rolled coil under more pressure [2] Outlook - The market will operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Key factors to watch in the later stage include macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-14 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 日，特朗普威胁对中国加征100%关税，中美贸易争端升级可能性再度提升，油价大幅回落，供需 端，装置检修减少，负荷窄幅提升，产量有所增加，农膜开工运行平稳，其余膜类随双11临近需 求良好。当前LL交割品现货价7020（-60），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-17，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54.3万吨（+11.3），中性； • 4. 盘面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China on companies like Pop Mart, particularly in the toy industry, highlighting the company's strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on market opportunities in the U.S. [4][5][22] Trade Tensions and Market Impact - Trump has threatened to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports if China enacts new export restrictions on rare earth materials, indicating a resurgence in U.S.-China trade tensions [4][5] - Following this announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 3.5% and the S&P 500 down more than 2.7% [6][7] - The previous tariff war had a pronounced effect on import-export businesses, particularly labor-intensive industries like toys, which faced challenges due to increased tariffs [8][22] Pop Mart's Response to Tariffs - Pop Mart has been proactive in addressing tariff impacts by relocating some production to Vietnam, where labor costs are significantly lower than in China [14] - The company has also adjusted product pricing in the U.S. market to maintain profit margins, with some products seeing price increases of up to 28% due to anticipated tariff hikes [15][16] - Despite these challenges, Pop Mart's unique product offerings and consumer experience have led to strong demand in the U.S., with foot traffic in its stores often surpassing that of nearby competitors [18][20] Financial Performance and Growth - In the first half of the year, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with overseas market revenue exceeding 40% of total sales [22] - The Americas market saw a staggering revenue growth of 1142.3%, indicating strong market penetration and consumer interest [22] - By the end of 2025, Pop Mart plans to have over 200 stores internationally, with a focus on expanding its presence in the U.S. [22][23] Market Position and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's U.S. market is still in its early stages, with 50 stores primarily located in residential areas, suggesting room for growth in prime commercial locations [20][23] - The company is confident in its ability to scale operations in North America, citing strong consumer demand for IP-designed products and a mature retail market [23] - The brand's popularity, particularly for products like LABUBU, has led to significant consumer engagement, with reports of high demand and even competitive purchasing behavior [21][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, particularly following Trump's threat to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports due to China's planned export restrictions on rare earths [1][2]. - The US stock market reacted negatively to the news, with the Nasdaq falling over 3.5%, the S&P 500 down more than 2.7%, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 1.9%, indicating investor concerns about potential impacts on global supply chains and economic uncertainty [2]. - Previous tariff battles have significantly affected import and export businesses, especially labor-intensive industries like toys, which have been particularly vulnerable to tariff fluctuations [3]. Group 2 - The traditional toy manufacturing industry, characterized by low product value, has been severely impacted by tariffs, with some tariffs exceeding the product value itself, leading to production and trade halts [4]. - In 2024, 75% of toys purchased in the US are expected to be sourced from China, with Guangdong province projected to export $14.811 billion worth of toys, contributing over 37% of "Made in China" toys globally [4]. - Not all segments of the toy industry are equally affected; new categories like trendy toys and IP derivatives are less impacted by tariffs, as companies like Pop Mart have prepared for potential tariff increases [6]. Group 3 - Companies are shifting supply chains to countries like Vietnam to avoid tariffs, with Vietnam's manufacturing labor costs being 60% to 70% lower than those in China's major manufacturing regions [7]. - Pop Mart's Vietnam factory has ramped up production capacity significantly, from 300,000 units per month in early 2024 to 10 million units by March 2025, indicating a strategic move to mitigate tariff impacts [7]. - Pop Mart is also adjusting product prices in the US market to maintain profit margins, with some products seeing price increases of up to 28% due to rising import costs from tariffs [9]. Group 4 - Despite tariff challenges, Pop Mart has seen strong demand in the US, particularly for its LABUBU products, which have gained popularity and consumer interest [11][13]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with overseas market revenue exceeding 40% of total sales [14]. - Pop Mart plans to expand its presence in the US, with expectations to exceed 200 overseas stores by the end of 2025, and has recently opened new locations in key areas [14][15].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On October 10, A-share market's three major indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.94% to 3897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.70% to 13355.42 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 4.55% to 3113.26 points. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2515.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index pulled back on October 10, closing at 4616.83, down 92.65 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 10, the weighted coke index continued to rebound, closing at 1689.5, up 32.3 [1]. - The weighted coking coal index fluctuated in a range on October 10, closing at 1176.7 yuan, up 15.4 [2]. - The first round of coke price increase was fully implemented on the 1st, with a tamping increase of 50 - 55 and a top - loading increase of 70 - 75. The second round of price increase basically failed. During the holiday, transportation was smooth, coke enterprises had a slight inventory build - up, and their profits were near the break - even point, maintaining a normal production rhythm [2]. - Due to factors such as holidays and safety accidents, some coal mines reduced production during the National Day and are expected to gradually resume after the holiday. Mongolian coal resumed normal customs clearance on October 8. After the holiday, Mongolian coal is expected to see a significant increase [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season led the market to be defensive. Affected by this, US sugar oscillated and declined on Friday. Due to a large short - term decline, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated and slightly closed lower at night [2]. - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to increase by 3.3% year - on - year to 40.12 million tons, and sugar production is estimated to increase by 7.7% year - on - year to 3.05 million tons. Brazil exported 3.24583761 million tons of sugar in September, a 16% year - on - year decrease [2]. Rubber - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and a sharp decline in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on the night of Friday. As of October 10, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3729 tons to 180630 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5420 tons to 144390 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 1310 tons to 45562 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 705 tons to 43129 tons [3]. Soybean Meal - On October 10, the CBOT soybean futures oscillated weakly, with the main November contract down 1.44% to 1007 cents per bushel. Favorable weather in the US Midwest promoted the harvest, and the concentrated listing of new soybeans and concerns about export demand hindered the rise of US soybean prices [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7.12 million tons, much higher than 4.44 million tons in the same period last year. As of October 2, 9% of Brazil's soybean planting area has been completed, compared with 3% last week and 4% in the same period last year [4]. - On October 10, the soybean meal futures oscillated weakly, with the main M2601 contract closing at 2922 yuan per ton, down 0.58%. China's imported soybean arrivals are still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills has remained above 2.25 million tons for four consecutive weeks [4]. Live Hogs - On October 10, the live hog futures weakened, with the main LH2511 contract down 2.37% to 11320 yuan per ton. Currently, the production capacity of suitable - weight standard pigs is being released intensively, and the supply capacity has increased significantly. After the holiday, consumption declined, and it is difficult to support the pig price. However, after November, with the start of curing demand and policy support, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the rebound height is restricted by the expected over - capacity [5]. Shanghai Copper - The sudden news of additional tariffs on imported goods on Friday triggered concerns about trade frictions. The global copper mine supply remains tight, and domestic smelters' production willingness has declined. However, the expected escalation of trade frictions and the uncertainty of downstream demand recovery after resumption of work will limit the rebound height [5]. Iron Ore - On October 10, the main Iron Ore 2601 contract oscillated and rose, with a 1.02% increase to 795 yuan. Recently, the iron ore shipment volume decreased month - on - month, the domestic arrivals increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On October 10, the main Asphalt 2511 contract oscillated and declined, with a 1.42% decrease to 3328 yuan. This period's asphalt production and shipment volume both decreased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased. The asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13355 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 88 lots compared with the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is 6.02 - 6.25 yuan per kilogram [6]. Logs - On October 11, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually reducing inventory, with expectations for the peak season [8]. Steel - The October steel market is a game between expectations and reality. The industrial positive factors of "anti - involution" and "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" have been fully traded in the first round. The current trading logic of the black metal chain has switched to a double - drive of macro - industrial policies and fundamentals. High inventory and weak demand will limit the price increase space, but policy expectations and low valuations in the peak season provide bottom support [8]. Alumina - Recently, the operating capacity of alumina has changed little, and the production remains at a high level. The import has increased recently, and the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The spot market trading is light, and the inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The alumina price is under downward pressure [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of alumina, the raw material, is still abundant, and its spot price is weakening. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. With the improvement of downstream demand expectations after the holiday and policy support, the inventory is decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and increasing demand [9].