Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds rotating rapidly between high - and low - priced stocks, and market risk appetite has decreased. Although short - term indices face uncertainties due to concerns over Sino - US tariffs, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term risk aversion due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes is conducive to bond market repair. However, the fourth - quarter bond market still needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation forces. Overall, it may maintain a volatile trend [8]. - For precious metals, although prices have fallen after a short - term sharp rise, it is still recommended to hold long positions. There is a possibility of a short - term correction in silver prices, but there is also room for further increase in the future [10]. - In the有色金属 market, the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some metals are expected to have limited downside, while others may face short - term fluctuations [12][13][14][15]. - In the black building materials market, Trump's new tariff remarks have disturbed the market, and short - term steel demand is weak. However, in the long - term, the overall trend is unchanged under a loosening macro - environment. The black sector may have a rebound opportunity after a short - term decline [35][38][46]. - In the energy and chemical market, most products are affected by factors such as Sino - US trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - environment. Different products have different price trends and trading strategies [54][59][61]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by trade relations, while others are affected by seasonal factors and consumption trends [81][85][88]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand; Shanghai released an action plan for the intelligent terminal industry; the central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan repurchase operation; JPMorgan Chase will provide up to $1.5 trillion in financing for key US industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence. Short - term indices face uncertainties due to Sino - US tariff concerns, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: Bond prices rose on Tuesday. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and the Ministry of Commerce took counter - measures against South Korean companies. The central bank conducted a 91 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term risk aversion is conducive to bond market repair, but the fourth - quarter bond market still needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation forces. It may maintain a volatile trend [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices rose. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks supported precious metal prices. COMEX silver inventory decreased, and the spread between COMEX silver and London silver narrowed [9][10]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 921 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 10962 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Sino - US trade relations affected copper prices. LME copper prices fell, and domestic copper prices also declined. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper warehouse receipts increased slightly [12]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. Fundamentals support copper prices, and short - term price decline may be limited. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84000 - 85800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10450 - 10750 US dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Market sentiment weakened, and aluminum prices corrected. LME aluminum prices fell, and domestic aluminum prices also declined. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the downside space for aluminum prices is expected to be limited. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20980 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2700 - 2780 US dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices fell. LME zinc prices declined, and domestic zinc prices also decreased. LME zinc inventory decreased, and domestic zinc social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, domestic zinc production and consumption were normal. LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and risk volatility will increase [17][18]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices fell. LME lead prices declined, and domestic lead prices also decreased. LME lead inventory decreased, and domestic lead social inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and lead ingot factory inventory accumulated. After Trump's tariff threat, short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and risk volatility will increase [20]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated downward. Spot market transactions were average, and nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable [21]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - term, nickel prices are supported by US easing expectations and domestic policies. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider going long on dips [22]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fell. Domestic tin warehouse receipts decreased, and tin concentrate prices also declined. Supply was tight, and demand was mixed [23][24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down market sentiment, but tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices may remain high and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices were stable. Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were unchanged [25]. - **Strategy**: After the sharp reduction of warehouse receipts, the market opened higher but then fell. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2601 contract is 71000 - 74500 yuan/ton [26]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Warehouse receipts increased [27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Warehouse receipts decreased [29][30]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, social inventory accumulated, and terminal consumption was weak. The market is expected to be weak [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell slightly. Trading volume decreased, and warehouse receipts increased [32]. - **Strategy**: Market sentiment is unstable, and the delivery pressure on near - month contracts is large, so prices are under pressure [33]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Steel prices fell. Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, and inventory increased [35]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff remarks have disturbed the market. Short - term steel demand is weak, but in the long - term, the overall trend is unchanged under a loosening macro - environment. Attention should be paid to policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [38]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Warehouse receipts increased [39]. - **Strategy**: Supply has a seasonal decline, and demand is relatively stable. Short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" demand after the replenishment [40]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: Glass prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Inventory increased [41]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure [42]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: Soda ash prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Inventory increased [43]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soda ash market is weak, and short - term prices are expected to continue to decline [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased [45]. - **Strategy**: The black sector may have a similar price trend to 2023. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are relatively stable [48]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, pay attention to end - of - option games. In the long - term, prices may increase due to reduced supply and increased cost support [49]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices rose. Futures prices increased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Supply and demand are under pressure [50]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may be under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Mid - term, the supply - demand situation may improve after November [51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were weak. Market expectations were uncertain, and tire开工率 decreased [54][56]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may fall for 1 - 3 days. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term. Consider partial hedging [58]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices fell. Related refined oil prices also declined. Port inventory data showed mixed trends [59]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [60]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply pressure is large, and demand is weak [61]. - **Strategy**: The current short - selling cost - effectiveness is not high. It is recommended to wait and see as the fundamentals may improve marginally [61]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [62][63]. - **Strategy**: It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply and demand are mixed [64]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices are falling, and the basis is strengthening. Benzene prices may stop falling temporarily [65]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply is strong, and demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies as the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen in the fourth quarter [69]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Spot prices decreased, and futures prices also declined. Supply and demand are relatively stable [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply - demand situation is balanced, but the valuation needs to be improved [72]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are under pressure [73]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see as the market lacks a driving force, but the downside space is limited [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are mixed [75]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level as the cost - side support is weakening, and inventory is high [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Supply and demand are weak [77]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are under pressure due to high inventory and cost - side supply surplus [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices showed mixed trends. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is slowly increasing, and prices may rise slightly [81]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, supply pressure is large, but the risk before the Spring Festival has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads after the spot stabilizes [82]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable. Supply was normal, and trading volume increased [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, it is recommended to be bearish on near - month contracts. Mid - term, there may be a rebound, and long - term, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans fell. Domestic soybean meal prices decreased, and inventory continued to decline [85]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, prices may fluctuate in a range due to supply - demand contradictions and trade concerns. Mid - term, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [87]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export data increased, and domestic oil prices rebounded. Supply and demand are balanced, and there is an expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year [88]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term, it is recommended to buy on dips. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to weak market sentiment [89]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices fell. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Sugar mills in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have started production [90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the fourth quarter as there is an expectation of increased production [91]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. Downstream开机率 was low, and inventory was relatively low [92]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, cotton prices are likely to fall due to weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariff remarks by Trump on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real demand for steel is difficult to reverse. It is necessary to focus on the policy intensity and direction before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][3]. - The price of iron ore fluctuates weakly. Although the short - term hot metal output is strong, the demand contradiction is mainly in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, the price of iron ore may be adjusted accordingly. The overall terminal demand is weak, and there are continuous macro - disturbances [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do long may be higher than short - selling. The price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session. The key time node may be around the Fourth Plenary Session in mid - October [8]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term. After the southwest region enters the dry season, the supply pressure will be reduced, and the cost support will be enhanced. The price of silicon materials is in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. - The glass market is weak. The demand is less than expected, and the inventory is increasing. The soda ash market is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 7008 tons to 273365 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 38714 hands to 1.991462 million hands. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 40 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3241 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 594 tons to 29778 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 29205 hands to 1.451729 million hands. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The new round of tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment, but the direct impact on steel was limited. The real demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. In the short - term, steel prices may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the overall trend may not change under the loose macro - environment. It is necessary to focus on the policy before and after the Fourth Plenary Session [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 782.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.80% (- 22.50). The positions increased by 14460 hands to 499800 hands, and the weighted positions were 832000 hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.67% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily hot - metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of steel products during the holiday was not low, and the destocking after the holiday was under test. The price of iron ore fluctuated weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5738 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the main contract. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed at 5378 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 272 yuan/ton over the main contract [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, but the port inventory of manganese ore was low, and the price was relatively strong. Ferrosilicon also lacked obvious contradictions. For the black sector, it was considered that finding callback positions to do long was more cost - effective. The price may first decline and then rise with the expectations of the Fourth Plenary Session [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8520 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (- 285). The weighted positions increased by 13354 hands to 442719 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 780 yuan/ton and 380 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 49990 yuan/ton, up 2.56% (+ 1250). The weighted positions increased by 7164 hands to 253779 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2760 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to reduced supply pressure and enhanced cost support in the dry season. The price of silicon materials was in the process of technical correction, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1138 yuan/ton, down 3.48% (- 41). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+ 5.84%) to 6282.4 million cases. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 1.04% (- 13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%) to 165.98 million tons [17][19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market was weak. The demand of downstream processing enterprises was less than expected, and the inventory was increasing. The soda ash market was expected to continue to operate weakly in the short - term due to inventory accumulation and a slight decline in the start - up rate [18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US officially imposed restrictions such as port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposed this and announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., highlighting China's determination to counter in key areas [7]. - For LPG, the price of domestic propane at the cost of arrival (tax - included) is basically below 4,000 yuan/ton. The demand has increased significantly, but it has not rebounded under speculative demand. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign is clear, which is bullish for the long - short spread on the futures market, but the impact of Sino - US trade disputes and crude oil price trends should be noted [9][10]. - For cotton, the short - term trend is stable. Before mid - November, attention should be paid to the development of international economic and trade situations. The short - term trend of cotton futures is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it will be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in shipping capacity in November. The recent sharp rise was affected by China's counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean, but it has no substantial impact on the European line. The fundamentals show that most shipping companies are expected to be fully loaded in week 43, and the no - show rate needs further observation [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs. The Fed Chairman Powell hinted at another interest rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing the end, which is favorable for gold prices [21]. - **Silver**: The contradiction in the spot market has eased, and the price has risen and then fallen [21]. - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is volatile. The production of Codelco in Chile has decreased, and China's copper imports in September have shown different trends [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The trend is weakly volatile. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates affects the market, and inventory and price data show certain changes [28]. - **Lead**: The inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The Fed's interest - rate policy also has an impact on the lead market [31]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The price of tin has declined, and inventory and price differences have changed [34]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within a certain interval. Alumina's price center moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [38]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the nickel price is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel is under pressure from both the macro - environment and the actual situation, but the cost limits the downward space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is improving, and the warehouse receipts are being cleared. The short - term trend is relatively strong [44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is weak [47]. - **Polysilicon**: Meetings are being held this week, and the futures market is expected to rise [48]. 3.2 Building Materials and Energy - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed, and relevant policies have an impact on the market [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current situation is weak, and the expectation has also weakened. Steel prices may decline slightly [54]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The quotations in the main production areas are unstable, and the prices fluctuate widely. The prices of manganese ore at ports have moved down [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and the prices fluctuate widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [61][62]. - **Log**: The price oscillates repeatedly [64]. 3.3 Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: The medium - term trend remains weak [17]. - **MEG**: The spread between January and May contracts is in a reverse - arbitrage situation [17]. - **Rubber**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trend is weak [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price has declined following the oil price [17]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The trends are weak [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not short in the short term [17]. - **Pulp**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of raw glass is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: The price is under pressure and oscillates [17]. - **Urea**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [17]. - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has not changed much [17]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The driving force from the origin is limited. Attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves within a certain range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The trade concerns have resurfaced, and the prices may rebound and oscillate [20]. - **Corn**: The price has rebounded [20]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates within a certain range [20]. - **Egg**: The price oscillates [20]. - **Live Pig**: The bottom of the spot price has not been reached [20]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand of pure benzene remains weak, with petroleum benzene profits staying at a relatively low level. This week, the restart of some domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene plants is expected to further increase pure benzene production. In October, new downstream plants of styrene, caprolactam, and phenol are planned to be put into operation, with a converted production capacity higher than that of pure benzene. However, large - scale styrene plants are still in the maintenance period, and there are expectations of a decline in the load of caprolactam, phenol, and adipic acid plants this week, resulting in a persistently weak demand side in the short term. The market sentiment is weak due to the ongoing Sino - US trade dispute, and the downward trend of the BZ2603 contract may continue [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5,597 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the settlement price was 5,624 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan. The trading volume was 5,926 lots, down 742 lots; the open interest was 14,189 lots, up 635 lots. The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,510 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the Northeast region, it was 5,505 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 690 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 703.08 US dollars/ton, down 3.02 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 64.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.7 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 566.75 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 46.02 tons, up 0.32 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 9.1 tons, down 1.5 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 73.61%, up 2.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.55% to 79.29%, and that of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 0.75% to 63.24%. The weighted开工率 of pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56% to 77.72%. As of October 13th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 9.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The BZ2603 contract fell 1.93% to close at 5,597 yuan/ton. From October 9th to 11th, the profit of Chinese petroleum benzene was 314 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton from the previous week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with technical attention on the low - level support around 4665. Last week, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The inventory continued to accumulate and reached a new high. The cost of PVC's calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was slightly repaired. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure of PVC remains high. After the holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production, but demand growth is limited by the weak domestic real - estate market. The export market may remain on the sidelines due to the Indian anti - dumping tax, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate at a high level. The calcium carbide method process is deeply in loss, and the cost - side support is limited. Market sentiment is weak, and industrial products mainly declined during the day [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the trading volume was 736,644 lots, an increase of 94,686 lots; the open interest was 1,254,279 lots, an increase of 19,246 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 921,931 lots, an increase of 15,375 lots; the short positions were 1,077,284 lots, an increase of 17,675 lots; the net long positions were - 155,353 lots, a decrease of 2,300 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,694.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,673.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 549 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 82.63%, an increase of 3.66 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.94%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.9%, an increase of 2.15 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 55.7 tons, an increase of 1.93 tons; the total inventory in the East China region was 50.27 tons, an increase of 1.43 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 5.43 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801.01 million square meters, an increase of 4,595.01 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 643,108.94 million square meters, an increase of 4,377.94 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.38%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.04%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.72%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.73%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 7.6% to 32.83%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 23.04% to 15.87%. As of October 9th, the social inventory of PVC was 103.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.58%. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of PVC's calcium carbide method decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of the ethylene method decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "Bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, affected by weekend trade dispute news, the A-share market opened significantly lower and closed slightly down. The long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged so far. Short - term IV decline may be a buying opportunity, and one can allocate a small position in November out - of - the - money call options. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. If leveraged funds leave the market in the short term, it may affect the valuation of technology stocks [1] - For treasury bonds, the central bank's support has led to a marginal loosening of the money market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment, so treasury bonds will be strong next week. However, due to the cooling of policy interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of quasi - fiscal tools, treasury bonds lack the impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Affected by trade disputes, A - share market indices such as Wind All A, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all declined. Short - term trade disputes may impact the index, but long - term momentum depends on internal policies. The adjustment of margin conversion ratios by some domestic brokers may affect technology stocks. One can consider small - position layout of November out - of - the money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures of different maturities all rose. The central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The money market marginally loosened, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. Although the bonds will be strong next week, they lack the power for a large - scale upward movement [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: Contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined compared to the previous period, with declines ranging from 0.47% to 0.64% [4] - **Stock Indices**: Indices including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines between 0.19% and 0.50% [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL all rose, with increases from 0.02% to 0.41% [4] Market News - On October 13, customs data showed that in September, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both increased year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% and imports by 7.4% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends of main contracts and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [14][17][18][19] - **Exchange Rates**: Displays the trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the trends of the US dollar index and currency pairs such as euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [22][23][24][26][28]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The market is operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3 Industry background - The Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, which is a just measure to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises and the fair competition environment of international shipping [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, the imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [2] Steel export and import data - In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, an increase of 95.5 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - In September, China imported 54.8 tons of steel, an increase of 4.8 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 9.6%. From January to September, the cumulative steel imports were 453.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% [2] Market performance - The prices of finished products fell yesterday, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil reached new recent lows. The market was more affected by Sino - US trade disputes, and the market risk sentiment cooled down [2] - During the National Day holiday, the fundamentals of finished products were relatively calm, and the weak downstream terminals continued to suppress steel prices. There was a slight differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coil, with hot - rolled coil under more pressure [2] Outlook - The market will operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Key factors to watch in the later stage include macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish. The macro - manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range, the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the risk of Sino - US trade disputes has increased again. It is expected that the prices of both will fluctuate weakly today [4][6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost of polyolefins. On the 10th, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing the risk of Sino - US trade disputes. The number of plant overhauls decreased, production increased, the operation of agricultural film production was stable, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 7020 (-60), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.2%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 54.3 tons (+11.3), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable operation of agricultural film production, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new productions in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost of polyolefins. On the 10th, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, increasing the risk of Sino - US trade disputes. The supply of goods is abundant recently, the plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6760 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 38, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.6%, bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 68.1 tons (+16.1), bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by the decline in crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming into operation, stable average downstream operating rate, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support [7] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new productions in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data - **LLDPE Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7020, the price of the 01 contract is 7037, the basis is - 17, the import price in US dollars is 831, the import conversion price is 7275, and the import price difference is - 255 [8] - **PP Spot and Futures**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6760, the price of the 01 contract is 6722, the basis is 38, the import price in US dollars is 830, the import conversion price is 7267, and the import price difference is - 507 [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China on companies like Pop Mart, particularly in the toy industry, highlighting the company's strategies to mitigate risks and capitalize on market opportunities in the U.S. [4][5][22] Trade Tensions and Market Impact - Trump has threatened to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports if China enacts new export restrictions on rare earth materials, indicating a resurgence in U.S.-China trade tensions [4][5] - Following this announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 3.5% and the S&P 500 down more than 2.7% [6][7] - The previous tariff war had a pronounced effect on import-export businesses, particularly labor-intensive industries like toys, which faced challenges due to increased tariffs [8][22] Pop Mart's Response to Tariffs - Pop Mart has been proactive in addressing tariff impacts by relocating some production to Vietnam, where labor costs are significantly lower than in China [14] - The company has also adjusted product pricing in the U.S. market to maintain profit margins, with some products seeing price increases of up to 28% due to anticipated tariff hikes [15][16] - Despite these challenges, Pop Mart's unique product offerings and consumer experience have led to strong demand in the U.S., with foot traffic in its stores often surpassing that of nearby competitors [18][20] Financial Performance and Growth - In the first half of the year, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with overseas market revenue exceeding 40% of total sales [22] - The Americas market saw a staggering revenue growth of 1142.3%, indicating strong market penetration and consumer interest [22] - By the end of 2025, Pop Mart plans to have over 200 stores internationally, with a focus on expanding its presence in the U.S. [22][23] Market Position and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's U.S. market is still in its early stages, with 50 stores primarily located in residential areas, suggesting room for growth in prime commercial locations [20][23] - The company is confident in its ability to scale operations in North America, citing strong consumer demand for IP-designed products and a mature retail market [23] - The brand's popularity, particularly for products like LABUBU, has led to significant consumer engagement, with reports of high demand and even competitive purchasing behavior [21][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, particularly following Trump's threat to impose significant tariffs on Chinese imports due to China's planned export restrictions on rare earths [1][2]. - The US stock market reacted negatively to the news, with the Nasdaq falling over 3.5%, the S&P 500 down more than 2.7%, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 1.9%, indicating investor concerns about potential impacts on global supply chains and economic uncertainty [2]. - Previous tariff battles have significantly affected import and export businesses, especially labor-intensive industries like toys, which have been particularly vulnerable to tariff fluctuations [3]. Group 2 - The traditional toy manufacturing industry, characterized by low product value, has been severely impacted by tariffs, with some tariffs exceeding the product value itself, leading to production and trade halts [4]. - In 2024, 75% of toys purchased in the US are expected to be sourced from China, with Guangdong province projected to export $14.811 billion worth of toys, contributing over 37% of "Made in China" toys globally [4]. - Not all segments of the toy industry are equally affected; new categories like trendy toys and IP derivatives are less impacted by tariffs, as companies like Pop Mart have prepared for potential tariff increases [6]. Group 3 - Companies are shifting supply chains to countries like Vietnam to avoid tariffs, with Vietnam's manufacturing labor costs being 60% to 70% lower than those in China's major manufacturing regions [7]. - Pop Mart's Vietnam factory has ramped up production capacity significantly, from 300,000 units per month in early 2024 to 10 million units by March 2025, indicating a strategic move to mitigate tariff impacts [7]. - Pop Mart is also adjusting product prices in the US market to maintain profit margins, with some products seeing price increases of up to 28% due to rising import costs from tariffs [9]. Group 4 - Despite tariff challenges, Pop Mart has seen strong demand in the US, particularly for its LABUBU products, which have gained popularity and consumer interest [11][13]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with overseas market revenue exceeding 40% of total sales [14]. - Pop Mart plans to expand its presence in the US, with expectations to exceed 200 overseas stores by the end of 2025, and has recently opened new locations in key areas [14][15].