瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.08」 生猪市场周报 主力移仓换月，政策引导支撑远月 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 生猪价格上涨，主力合约2511合约周度上涨2.38%。 3 行情回顾：生猪价格上涨，主力合约2511合约周度上涨2.38%。 行情展望：供应端，养殖端出栏降重出栏，供应增加。7月23日农业农村部召开座谈会指出，严格落 实产能调控举措，合理淘汰能繁母猪，适当调减能繁母猪存栏，减少二次育肥，控制肥猪出栏体重， 严控新增产能。需求端，猪源供应充足，且部分地区需求有所回暖，屠宰厂开机率小幅回升，不过高 温仍然抑制人们采购猪肉意愿，导致回升幅度有限，预计直至学生开学、双节备货之际，需求才会有 明显好转。总体来说，养殖端出栏量增加，当前需求清淡，导致现货价格下跌，不过因为基差修复， 预计短期近月表现相对抗跌。因产能政策引导对远月支撑更加明显，加上未来需求淡旺过度预期，生 猪2511合约偏强 ...

表现强于9月合约，站上万四关口，操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 90 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 59598 | 626 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 380 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -18400 | -209 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元 ...

Group 1 - The company has indicated that the overall market supply and demand situation has improved due to dual influences from supply-side capacity adjustments and rapid growth in certain segments such as electronics, electrical appliances, and wind power [1] - The company is actively monitoring market dynamics and has a comprehensive pricing mechanism in place [1] - Product prices will be determined based on market demand and the company's operational strategy [1]

生猪产业日报 2025-08-06 所反复，当前出栏量从低位恢复，供应增加施压近月价格震荡略偏弱。技术上，生猪移仓换月，生猪2511 合约表现强于9月合约，在万四关口震荡运行，操作上，建议2509合约空单逐渐获利了结观望。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14010 | 125 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 58972 | 23262 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 380 | 80 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -18191 | 2462 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14000 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13400 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15500 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -10 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Pork Industry**: Focus on companies like Muyuan, Dekang, Wens, Shennong, and Juxing Agriculture - **Beauty and Personal Care Industry**: Highlighting brands such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei - **Gold and Jewelry Industry**: Recommendations for Changhongqi and Caibai - **Retail Industry**: Emphasis on Xiaoshangpin City and Bubu Gao - **Education and Training Sector**: Focus on K12 education leaders and AI applications - **Restaurant and Beverage Sector**: Recommendations for Mixue and Guming - **Automotive Industry**: Focus on Huawei's smart vehicles and Changan Automobile - **Textile Manufacturing Sector**: Recommendations for companies in the ASEAN region and Nike's supply chain - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: Focus on companies with high R&D investment Core Points and Arguments - **Pork Industry**: The significant impact of pork prices on CPI, with a noted 8.5% decrease in pork prices leading to a 0.12 percentage point drop in CPI in June 2025. The strategy of capacity control to boost pork prices is crucial to mitigate CPI pressure [2][3][4] - **Beauty and Personal Care**: The industry is in a traditional off-season, but high-end brands like Mao Ge Ping and operationally strong brands like Shangmei are recommended due to low base effects from last year [6] - **Gold and Jewelry**: Despite a 20% drop in gold jewelry consumption in Q2, brands with strong same-store performance like Changhongqi and low-valuation, high-dividend companies like Caibai are recommended [6] - **Retail Sector**: Xiaoshangpin City is highlighted for its strong business certainty, while Bubu Gao is noted for potential investment opportunities post-unlock of shares [7] - **Education Sector**: K12 education leaders and AI applications are emphasized, with companies like Dou Shen and Fen Bi showing strong growth [8] - **Restaurant Sector**: The rise of takeaway services is noted, with companies like Guming and Mixue recommended for their growth potential [8][9] - **Automotive Sector**: Huawei's smart vehicles are performing well, with new models like M7 and M8 expected to launch soon, while Changan's S9 model shows stable delivery [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The sector is expected to see performance and stock price turning points, with a focus on companies benefiting from reduced tariffs in the ASEAN region [13][14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: A new cycle of R&D investment is anticipated, with a focus on companies sensitive to domestic demand recovery and those specializing in large molecules and oncology [26][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Pork Industry**: The adjustment in the pork breeding sector is linked to broader economic conditions and CPI management strategies [3][4][5] - **Retail Sector**: The potential for supermarkets and department stores to experience operational turning points is noted [7] - **Automotive Sector**: The upcoming launch of multiple new models indicates a strategic push for market share [10][11][12] - **Textile Manufacturing**: The impact of tariff changes on the competitive landscape and the potential for recovery in the sector is highlighted [14][15] - **Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry**: The increasing trend of funding sources and the focus on early-stage research are critical for future growth [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent supply-side policies in the pig farming industry aim to stabilize pig prices and market conditions, with a focus on reducing breeding stock and controlling output weight, leading to a gradual improvement in production capacity regulation [1][6]. Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to cost efficiency, with leading companies gaining significant advantages [1][6]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to increase due to stricter environmental regulations and production capacity controls [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The number of pigs undergoing secondary fattening is decreasing due to tightened supply, and profitability for secondary fattening farmers has significantly declined [3][4]. - As of July, the average monthly price of pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from January and 4.3 yuan/kg from the previous year [3][4]. - The profitability for self-breeding farmers has dropped from 350 yuan/head at the beginning of the year to around 113 yuan/head by July [4]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have emphasized the need to control the number of breeding sows and limit secondary fattening, with specific weight controls for pigs being implemented [5][6]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has held meetings with leading enterprises to enforce these production capacity regulations [6][9]. Cost Management - Leading companies are focusing on reducing production costs, with major players like Muyuan and Wens aiming for costs as low as 12 yuan/kg by the end of the year [7][8]. - The production efficiency of leading firms has improved significantly, with PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) reaching between 25 to 32 in top companies [6][7]. Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to enter a phase of "micro-profit balance and reduced volatility" in the second half of the year, with supply pressures potentially exceeding demand [10][11]. - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.43 million heads, slightly above the normal level, indicating a need for continued capacity regulation [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese government has adopted a more optimistic stance on economic growth and the easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions, as reflected in the Politburo's recent meeting outcomes [1][2] - The Politburo's attitude towards the economic growth outlook has improved compared to the April meeting, with a notable reduction in concerns regarding the Sino-U.S. trade conflict [2][3] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will focus on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to shape future economic policies [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies, suggesting a shift from introducing new policies to enhancing the effectiveness of existing ones [4] - There is a reduced urgency for large-scale stimulus measures in key sectors, with a focus on developing new growth points in service consumption and supporting goods consumption [5][6] - The government remains cautious regarding local government debt issues, emphasizing the need to prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts while addressing existing debt challenges [6] Group 3 - The tone regarding "anti-involution" actions has softened, with the Politburo opting for a more general approach to addressing disorderly competition rather than specific measures to eliminate outdated capacity [3][4] - The recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have led to a more moderate stance on export support, reflecting a decrease in urgency following the potential extension of the tariff truce [6] - The meeting did not mention any plans for additional funding for the vehicle trade-in program, indicating a limited scope for new consumer incentives [5][6]

Group 1 - The pig farming industry is increasingly emphasizing "anti-involution" and regulating new production capacity [1][5] - Shennong Group announced the termination of its private placement plan, while Juxing Agriculture extended the authorization period for its private placement [1][3] - Shennong Group's terminated private placement aimed to raise 290 million yuan, with a portion allocated for a pig breeding project [2][3] Group 2 - Shennong Group's new stock incentive plan focuses on revenue, slaughter volume, and breeding costs, without emphasizing growth in pig farming scale [2][3] - Juxing Agriculture's extended private placement authorization is valid until August 22, 2026, reflecting a strategic response to market conditions [3][4] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is pushing for high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing strict capacity control measures [5]

生猪产业日报 2025-07-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14125 | -260 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 61415 | -881 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 284 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -24623 | 809 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 14000 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13800 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15500 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -125 | 160 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | | 0.1 | 0.2 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2860 | | | | 玉米现 ...