聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-30 油价反弹走高，成本端支撑偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7049元/吨（+82），PP主力合约收盘价为6870元/吨（+92），LL华北现货为6890 元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为6640元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-159元/吨（-22）， LL华东基差为-99元/吨（-32）， PP华东基差为-230元/吨（-62）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为85.4%（+0.7%），PP开工率为74.8%（-1.2%）。 单边：LLDPE谨慎逢低做多套保，PP谨慎逢低做多套保；短期成本端波动偏强，但需关注聚烯烃当前供需基本面 仍偏弱，反弹持续性或受限，持续关注地缘局势变化。 跨期：无 进出口方面，LL进口利润为50.6元/吨（-315.1），PP进口利润为-323.1元/吨（+89.7），PP出口利润为-69.5美元/吨（-1.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为34.6%（-1.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为42.1%（-2.9%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the non - ferrous metals (copper) industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been continuously trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure, with converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper social inventories, indicating pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [6][63]. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing. Major economies are adopting looser monetary policies, releasing large - scale liquidity, leading to an upswing in global stock and commodity markets. Copper has stood out in this asset rally, breaking through the post - 2020 infinite QE high in Q4 2025, supported by its solid supply - demand fundamentals [6][63]. - In 2026, against the backdrop of macro - easing, rigid supply constraints and green intelligent demand will continue to drive up copper prices, strengthening the long - term upward foundation for copper prices. However, frequent global geopolitical events since the New Year and the significant price increase since December 2025 have led to strong short - term profit - taking intentions. Copper prices may oscillate at high levels, waiting for the industry to catch up [6][64]. 3. Summary by Report Sections 3.1 Market Review - Price Trend: The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper reached 700,000 contracts at one point and then declined as the upward trend of copper prices slowed [9]. - Market Structure: The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. Converging monthly spreads of futures contracts and continuous inventory build - up in the domestic electrolytic copper market indicate pressure on the spot market and cautious downstream procurement, while forward contracts remain strong due to expected supply - demand tightness [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fluctuating Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts - In January 2026, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in March or April dropped from around 50% at the beginning of the month to below 30% by the end of the month. The decline in the rate - cut probability was accompanied by a rebound of the US dollar index, which then weakened due to the intensification of US tariff policies towards Europe and South Korea [14]. 3.2.2 Frequent Geopolitical Events - Since the New Year, geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the tense situation in Iran, and the Greenland issue have increased gold prices and reduced market risk appetite, negatively affecting copper prices. These ongoing geopolitical hotspots have created a high - risk, low - certainty international environment that suppresses the risk appetite of the global market and exerts downward pressure on copper prices [15]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macroeconomic Easing and High - Quality Industrial Development - In January 2026, China's fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies were coordinated to support domestic demand, scientific innovation, and market expectations, providing a solid macro - policy foundation for copper's downstream demand. - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), a 40% increase from the previous period, which will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors and strengthen copper's strategic position in energy transformation [17]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Persistent Disturbances at the Mining End - From January to November 2025, the global copper mine production increased by only about 1% year - on - year. Some major copper mines faced declining ore grades and unexpected incidents, which restricted production growth. - In Chile, the total production decreased by 1.3% due to the decline in some mines. In Peru, production increased by 2.4% due to the increase in several mines. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, production was estimated to increase by 6.5%. Mongolia's copper concentrate production increased by 34%, while Indonesia's production decreased by about 40% [18][19]. 3.3.2 Marginal Relaxation of Domestic Mining Supply - On January 23, 2026, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, a decrease of about 100,000 tons month - on - month and about 140,000 tons year - on - year, indicating tightening domestic copper ore supply. The high sulfuric acid price and low TC processing fees in January led to a decline in smelter profits compared to December [20][25]. 3.3.3 Contraction of Refined Copper Supply - From January to November 2025, the global electrolytic copper production was 26.177 million tons, a 3.81% increase year - on - year, with primary copper increasing by 3.08% and recycled copper by 7.44%. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (accounting for about 57% of global production) are expected to have a combined growth of 9%, while the rest of the world's refined copper production decreased by about 1.7% [26][27]. - The global electrolytic copper consumption from January to November 2025 was 25.89 million tons, a 3.96% increase year - on - year. China's apparent demand for refined copper is expected to increase by about 5.5%, with a 11% decline in net imports. Ex - China consumption increased by about 1.8% [30][31][32]. 3.3.4 Counter - seasonal Inventory Build - up of Electrolytic Copper - As of January 26, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 962,100 tons, an increase of 210,400 tons from the previous month and 510,400 tons from the same period last year. There was a significant divergence between domestic and overseas inventories, with overseas inventories rising continuously at a high level and domestic inventories building up seasonally [41][44]. 3.3.5 Downstream End - Users - Power grid infrastructure construction underpins about 50% of copper's terminal consumption. The State Grid's planned investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five - Year Plan period will drive copper consumption through ultra - high - voltage, distribution network, and new energy sectors [46][48]. - In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.89GW, a 33.25% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative new wind power installed capacity was 82.5GW, a 59.42% increase year - on - year. - In 2025, the real estate industry showed negative growth in development investment, new construction area, sales area, and completion area. - In 2025, the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased slightly, while home appliance exports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. - In 2025, China's automobile production was 34.7785 million vehicles, a 9.8% increase year - on - year, and the new energy vehicle production was 16.524 million vehicles, a 25.1% increase year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 47.51% [51][55][58][61]. 3.4 Conclusion - The Shanghai Copper main contract has been trading above 100,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price has been fluctuating around $13,000/ton. The market shows a "near - weak, far - strong" futures - spot structure. - The global financial environment is shifting towards easing, and copper has outperformed in the asset rally due to its solid supply - demand fundamentals. - In 2026, copper prices have a solid long - term upward foundation but may oscillate at high levels in the short term due to geopolitical events and profit - taking intentions [63][64].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern remains supply - exceeding - demand. Although the chemical market sentiment has improved recently and the short - term trend may be oscillatingly strong, the upward space is limited in the long - term, and there is no expectation for going long. It's not advisable to blindly place long orders before the core contradiction of oversupply is fundamentally resolved [8]. - For glass, the industry is in a new stage of capacity clearance. Short - term supply contraction will support prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the upward movement of the market. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong before substantial positive factors are realized. It is recommended to gradually reduce short positions and pay attention to supply - demand changes and raw material price support [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On January 29, the main soda ash contract SA605 rose significantly, closing at 1,224 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.59% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 6,800 lots [7]. - This week, the soda ash market faces both increasing supply and shrinking demand. There is a slight inventory accumulation, and the trend is expected to continue. The downstream float glass industry is weak, and the real - estate market has not improved substantially, so the demand for soda ash is weak. With the cold - repair of float glass production lines, the consumption support for soda ash further weakens [8]. Glass - On January 29, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 turned from decline to rise. The spot price of glass is stable but weak, and the industry is generally in a loss state. The supply of float glass is tightening, and the cold - repair of production lines is accelerating. The inventory pressure is high, and the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. The market is in a capacity clearance stage, and short - term supply contraction supports prices, but weak downstream real - estate data and inventory accumulation expectations suppress the market [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][17][20]

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-29 成本端支撑偏强，市场延续上行 市场要闻与重要数据 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为72.5元/吨（-161.0），PP油制生产利润为-527.5元/吨（-161.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-621.0元/吨（+44.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为365.7元/吨（-11.8），PP进口利润为-412.8元/吨（-33.1），PP出口利润为-68.1美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.3%（-0.6%），PE下游包装膜开工率为45.0%（-3.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为64.0%（+0.5%）。 市场分析 PE方面，地缘扰动加剧，成本端原油价格震荡上行，叠加近期北美寒潮影响乙烷供应价格高涨，PE成本端支撑持 续，聚烯烃市场情绪仍高涨；基本面情况看，供应端，短期包括中化泉州、茂名石化等重启装置偏多，PE供应端 存回升预期；需求端，PE下游延续淡季特征，下游整体开工延续下滑，下游工厂采购力度有所减弱，其中农膜需 求淡季，包装膜开工亦同期偏低，节前下游订单跟进情况仍显不足。整体看塑料供需格 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 29 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货1月28日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

| Millio | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月27日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 纯菜 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 绅碱 | 女女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内震荡整理。基本面上,期货盘面表现强势,叠加局部下游补库,带动买盘积极性。丙烯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is in the off - season, and the cost and capital sentiment are the main drivers of the market. For PP, the cost support is strengthening, but the demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4][5] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for LLDPE, and cautiously buy PP on dips for hedging. The LLDPE - PP spread should be shorted when it is high [6] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L主力合约 closed at 6899 yuan/ton (-36), and the PP主力合约 closed at 6709 yuan/ton (-28). The LL North China spot was 6760 yuan/ton (-40), the LL East China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (-20), and the PP East China spot was 6520 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was -139 yuan/ton (-4), the LL East China basis was -19 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis was -189 yuan/ton (+28) [2] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.7% (+3.1%), and PP operating rate was 76.0% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 233.6 yuan/ton (+129.4), PP oil - based production profit was -386.4 yuan/ton (+129.4), and PDH - based PP production profit was -665.0 yuan/ton (+50.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was 377.4 yuan/ton (+109.5), PP import profit was -379.7 yuan/ton (-3.8), and PP export profit was -67.0 US dollars/ton (-10.2) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 36.3% (-0.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 45.0% (-3.2), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (-0.6), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.0% (+0.5) [3] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content

热门品种机构观点 一、碳酸锂主力合约：继昨日涨停后，碳酸锂再度强势上涨 碳酸锂今日继续上扬，主力合约收涨7.26%，报166740元/吨。 国泰君安期货认为，供给收缩预期渐强，短期偏强震荡。从预期层面看，尾矿处理政策趋严，引发市场 对江西地区供应减量的持续担忧，大厂复产预期不断延后，其他在产矿山未来也可能面临相似约束。现 实层面上看，基本面维持向好态势，1月需求呈现"淡季不淡"特征，上周库存下降263吨；海外新能源车 市场亦释放积极信号，加拿大宣布每年给予中国电动汽车4.9万辆的进口配额，配额内适用6.1%的最惠 国关税，德国政府也计划于本月重启此前暂停的电动车补贴政策，总预算约30亿欧元，并覆盖中国品牌 车型。现货市场上，价格回调后下游采购意愿逐步回升，上周价格大幅调整后，贸易成交量持续放大， 底部支撑明显。总体来看，碳酸锂基本面偏强叠加供给端扰动持续，预计短期价格易涨难跌。 东吴期货认为，江西锂矿换证，供应不确定性增加。短期，市场情绪对于行情的影响权重较高，对于边 际扰动敏感度增加，波动放大。中长期，供需偏紧格局延续，对锂价形成强支撑。 二、沪锡主力合约：供应依旧偏紧，沪锡再度上扬 热门品种机构观点 一、 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Styrene: Not specified - Propylene: Not specified - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - PVC: Not specified - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PX: Not specified - PTA: Not specified - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - Glass: Not specified - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows complex trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products face supply shortages, while others are affected by cost, demand, and policy factors [2][3][5] - There are risks such as demand shrinkage due to downstream profit pressure and supply - demand imbalance in the market, and at the same time, there are also potential investment opportunities in some products [2][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined, with tight supply in the short term and limited support from the demand side due to high raw material costs. There is a risk of demand shrinkage [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were volatile. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand has been pre - consumed, and the upward - driving force for supply - demand fundamentals is insufficient [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rose due to port de - stocking and refinery production cuts. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong [3] - Styrene futures rose. The market is in a tight - balance state, with expected port de - stocking, low enterprise inventory, and export support [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are expected to decline due to weak cost support and inventory accumulation. There may be investment opportunities in the second quarter, but it depends on downstream demand [5] - Ethylene glycol is affected by new domestic production and overseas shutdowns. There may be short - term improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip production has decreased, and the processing margin has improved, but there is still long - term capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Although there is port de - stocking, demand has decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile and stalemate. There is support from reduced imports in the first quarter [6] - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also risen. The short - term market may decline slightly, but it is likely to be strong within a range as agricultural demand starts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices weakened. Production capacity utilization has declined, and cost has increased. It is expected to reduce production capacity this year, and the price center may rise [7] - Caustic soda is in a weak state, with high inventory pressure. The industry is generally in a loss, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory pressure is still high, supply pressure is large, and downstream demand is weak. A high - short strategy is recommended [8] - Glass prices declined due to ignition plans. The industry is de - stocking, but there may be an increase in supply. The order situation is poor, and there may be seasonal inventory accumulation [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a significant decline due to a combination of high inventory levels, weak demand, and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, the Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract close at 142,320 CNY/ton, down 2,050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.42% [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 146,400 CNY/ton, down 2,100 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and strong economic data have dampened expectations for early interest rate cuts, maintaining a high USD index that pressures commodity prices, including nickel [2]. - Structural monetary policies in China have been implemented, but their impact on real demand is delayed, particularly during the traditional off-season [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is facing a significant contradiction between high inventory levels and weak demand, with global visible inventories at high levels indicating a loose supply situation [3]. - The traditional stainless steel sector, which constitutes a major part of nickel consumption, is currently in a seasonal downturn, leading to low purchasing willingness for high-cost raw materials [3]. Group 4: Industry Chain and Market Sentiment - Profit distribution within the industry is shifting towards upstream resource sectors, while downstream sectors face pressure from high costs and weak orders, resulting in a narrow profit margin [4]. - The market is characterized by low trading activity and declining premiums, as traders are eager to sell while downstream buyers only engage in essential purchases [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term as the market seeks to digest high inventory pressures and await clear signs of demand recovery [5]. - Despite the current price adjustments, the long-term fundamentals remain intact, supported by the ongoing supply contraction from Indonesia and structural demand growth from the energy transition [5].