1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the disk margin follows the macro - sentiment change [4]. - For stainless steel, the macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The steel price fluctuates at a low level [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is trading the upstream resumption expectation, and the disk has short - term fluctuations [27][32]. - For polysilicon, it may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The policy market dominates, but there is still a short - term correction drive [27][33]. - For lithium carbonate, the'movement - style anti - involution' cools down. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi. The price is under pressure, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely [61][64]. - For palm oil, the macro - sentiment fades, and it may have a short - term pullback. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year, but the current price may not match the fundamentals [86][87]. - For soybean oil, it lacks effective driving forces. Pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: The influence of the macro - sentiment on the nickel market is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. The contradiction at the ore end fades, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range oscillation judgment. The global refined nickel inventory increases moderately, and the short - term nickel price has a limited decline but is suppressed above [4]. - Stainless steel: The macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The 8 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the nickel - iron price is revised upwards. The inventory has decreased moderately, but it is still higher than last year [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - Nickel: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreases, the LME nickel inventory increases, the nickel - iron inventory has high - level destocking, and the Chinese port nickel - ore inventory increases [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel: The national stainless - steel social total inventory decreases weekly, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [8]. - **Market News** - There are news about the potential export suspension of nickel from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and the adjustment of the mining quota period in Indonesia [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The futures price shows a weak oscillation, and the spot price drops. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon prices decline [27]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rises and then falls, and the spot trading is weak [27]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a marginal increase in production, and the overall industry inventory continues to be destocked. The demand side has stable short - term demand [28][29]. - Polysilicon: The supply side has an increase in short - term production, and the upstream inventory is destocked. The demand side has a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission is not smooth [29][31]. - **后市观点** - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect the market sentiment [32]. - Polysilicon: The policy market dominates, but there is a short - term correction drive. Pay attention to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [33]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract price drops significantly, and the spot price also decreases. The basis and the spread between contracts change [61]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The lithium concentrate price drops, and the production of lithium carbonate decreases, mainly due to the reduction of mica and salt - lake enterprises [62]. - Demand: The downstream procurement willingness increases, but the absolute demand is still lower than expected [62]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreases, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation [63]. - **后市观点** - The'movement - style anti - involution' expectation is broken, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi [64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The domestic macro - sentiment pushes the price to a three - year high, but the lack of downstream demand makes it difficult to continue rising [86]. - Soybean oil: The large number of export orders stimulates trading enthusiasm, and the soybean - palm oil price spread narrows [86]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The MPOB report's negative impact is digested, and the market trades the de - stocking market. Malaysia may continue to accumulate inventory in July, and Indonesia's production recovery may be lower than expected. The international oil market may have a systemic upward trend, and the palm oil price is relatively resistant to decline [87]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and it is necessary to pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, with a potential for price corrections. It recommends short - selling industrial silicon on rallies, and a short - term short or intraday short strategy for polysilicon [1][7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are affected by upstream factory复产 rhythms. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. Polysilicon is policy - driven, but there is a short - term correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth [6][7] Summary by Related Content Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures showed a weak oscillation this week, with the Friday closing price at 8,500 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week). Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, closing at 49,200 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot market had weak transactions [1] Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. Overall weekly production increased marginally. Yunnan's复产 was slow. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 million tons this week, social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, resulting in overall inventory reduction [2] - Demand: Downstream short - term demand was stable. Polysilicon's weekly production increased, boosting the purchase of industrial silicon. Organic silicon's weekly production also increased, but its terminal consumption had limited improvement. The aluminum alloy and export markets had no significant increase in demand [3] Polysilicon - Supply: Short - term weekly production continued to increase, with an estimated production of 120,000 - 130,000 tons in August. Factory inventory decreased due to speculative restocking by downstream buyers [3] - Demand: After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, production increased slightly in August compared to July. However, the price increase transmission from upstream to downstream was not smooth, and the acceptance of component price increases by end - users was yet to be observed [5] Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the upstream factory复产 rhythm. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect market sentiment. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, with an expected price range of 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] Polysilicon - The short - term market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth. It is a policy - driven market, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips, while short - term shorting or intraday shorting may be more appropriate. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell industrial silicon on rallies; for polysilicon, short - term shorting or intraday shorting [7] - Inter - period: Consider entering a reverse spread position for PS2509/PS2511 based on futures warehouse receipt registration [8] - Hedging: Recommend upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories to sell for hedging [8]

Group 1 - The futures market for coking coal and coke is experiencing a downward trend, with institutions indicating that the focus may shift towards supply and demand fundamentals [1] - The overall performance of black commodities is expected to remain weak in the short term [1] - Current coking coal futures prices are in a state of discount, while spot prices are providing some support to the futures market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the products in the report are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, propylene. Crude oil is recommended to hold short positions, and asphalt is rated as "Bearish" [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities, indicating that many are facing supply - demand imbalances or macro - economic pressures, leading to a generally bearish outlook. For example, geopolitical risks in the oil market are releasing, and OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices. New capacity in some chemical products is expected to increase supply, while demand is seasonally weak [1][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Commodity Categories Crude Oil - **Core View**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and oil prices have fallen. Although there are short - term geopolitical and macro - economic positives, from a supply - demand perspective, OPEC+ production increases are gradually releasing pressure, and the peak season is in the second half, with the oil price center still having room to decline. The US 5 - month crude oil production increased, and commercial and strategic oil reserves also changed [6][7]. - **Strategy**: For the 10 - contract, short positions can be established, and call options can be bought to protect the position. If short positions are already held, it is recommended to continue holding. Pay attention to the range of 520 - 530 yuan for SC [8]. LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are oscillating, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The LPG's own fundamentals are okay, but the cost end is the main drag. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased. Inventory has changed, with port inventory increasing and refinery inventory decreasing [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the range of 3950 - 4050 yuan for PG [12]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Most devices have recently restarted, increasing supply pressure. The basis and monthly spreads are at low levels compared to the same period. Social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks, and the fundamentals are weak. There are plans to put new capacity into production in August [18]. - **Strategy**: Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time, and short positions can be established on the far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 yuan for L [18]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment has cooled. Although there are high - level maintenance in the short - term, the production capacity pressure in the third quarter is high. New capacity is planned to be released in August, and domestic demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak downstream restocking power. Inventory has started to accumulate, and high production restricts the rebound space [25]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on the far - month contracts or a 9 - 1 monthly positive spread can be established. Pay attention to the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan for PP [25]. PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: The market has returned to weak fundamentals, and the futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. New devices have reached full - load production, and there are few maintenance plans in August. It is the off - season for both domestic and foreign demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 6 weeks, with the supply - demand pattern expected to continue to accumulate inventory in August [31]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 5000 - 5120 yuan for V [31]. PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventory is declining but still relatively high. PXN is not low, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise at the end of July. The probability of a September interest rate cut has decreased, and overnight crude oil has weakened [1]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pull - backs, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of 6800 - 6920 yuan for PX [37]. PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Recent device changes are relatively small, but new PTA devices are expected to be put into production, increasing supply - side pressure. Demand is seasonally weak, and the fundamentals are expected to shift from a tight balance to a looser state. The cost support has weakened [40]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions; pay attention to the possibility of expanding the PTA processing fee; sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4720 - 4800 yuan for TA [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads. The arrival and import volumes are low compared to the same period, but the inflection point is approaching. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are continuously declining. Although the supply - demand was in a tight balance in July, low inventory supports the price, but the macro - economic situation is not favorable [44]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4360 - 4430 yuan for EG [45]. Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Politburo meeting policies did not exceed expectations, and the manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, suppressing the commodity market sentiment. Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory has decreased for 6 weeks, mainly due to inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus shifts from expectations to fundamentals [49]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of 1090 - 1150 yuan for FG [50]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled, and short - selling funds have increased. The overall production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the inventory of soda ash plants has decreased for the third week but is still at a historical high. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not significantly improved, and the fundamentals are bearish under the background of high supply and high inventory. The market logic has shifted from macro - policy expectations to the industrial fundamentals [54]. - **Strategy**: Wait patiently for the price to pull back [54]. Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Due to summer device maintenance, industry start - up has declined. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and alumina production and capacity utilization have increased. Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, but inventory is high compared to the same period, and there is no obvious fundamental driver for the futures price. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and the downstream alumina futures price has pulled back [59]. - **Strategy**: Adjust the operation cycle to be shorter [59]. Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign methanol devices have increased their loads, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. In August, port methanol is expected to start the inventory accumulation cycle. Demand is relatively good, but traditional demand has declined. Social inventory is low overall, but the trend is to accumulate. The cost support is stable [62]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 2370 - 2420 yuan for MA [63]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Urea device start - up remains high, and production pressure is not reduced. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and factory inventory has increased, but exports are relatively good, and port inventory has decreased. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise [2]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions in batches, short positions can be established on rallies. Urea has a wide - range oscillation, and double - selling options can be used. Pay attention to the range of 1705 - 1735 yuan for UR [2]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to compress, and raw material supply is sufficient. Supply has increased while demand has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with over - valuation [2]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan for BU [2]. Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The August propane CP quotation has decreased, weakening cost support. The spot decline has slowed down, and the futures price is closing the basis. PDH start - up has continued to rise, and factory inventory is at a high level and accumulating. PP powder start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, and demand support is insufficient [2]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds, hold the 1 - 2 monthly reverse spread, and go long on the PP futures processing fee. Pay attention to the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan for PL [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] Core Viewpoints - For propylene, after the Politburo meeting, there are strong expectations on the macro - policy front, but the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak. Supply - side pressure is increasing significantly, with device restarts and rising PDH capacity utilization. Many downstream devices have maintenance plans, and the cost support is weak due to the weak oil prices [3]. - For polyolefins, the fundamentals change little, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. There are both shutdown and startup plans for some devices, with rising capacity utilization expectations and increasing supply pressure. The cost support is weak, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures related to propylene basis structure include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract [10][13] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization [19][21][29] III. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Figures include the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37] IV. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Figures cover the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [43][53][60] V. Propylene Inventory - Figures show propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69] VI. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [70][74] VII. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve LL production profit (crude - oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [79][87][93] VIII. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between HD injection molding and LL East China, HD blow molding and LL East China, HD film and LL East China, LD East China and LL, PP low - melt copolymer and drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding and drawn wire in East China [97][100][101] IX. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Figures include LL import profit, differences between LL US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, LL Europe FD and China's CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), differences between PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB and China's CFR, and LL export profit [106][117][122] X. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Figures cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, winding film, PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and their corresponding production gross profits [128][129][134] XI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [139][142][144]

Core Viewpoint - The trading logic for coking coal and coke has shifted from being primarily driven by market sentiment and expectations to focusing more on supply and demand fundamentals due to recent price fluctuations and regulatory measures [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Previously, the market experienced heightened emotions and significant price increases due to the "anti-involution" backdrop and the impact of coal production checks on market sentiment [1] - The coking coal market faced a temporary supply-demand imbalance, leading to a phase of high demand driven by downstream inventory replenishment [1] - Following the implementation of risk control measures by exchanges, there was a substantial price drop in coking coal and coke [1] Group 2: Future Outlook and Trading Strategy - The current trading logic is expected to transition towards a focus on supply-demand fundamentals, with particular attention on the progress of coal mine production checks and regulatory enforcement [1] - Short-term price adjustments for coking coal are anticipated, as the previous rapid price increases may allow for further downward movement [1] - The market is expected to see intense competition at current price levels, suggesting a strategy of cautious observation and waiting for new driving factors to emerge [1]

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹，关注周末 OPEC+会议。消息称伊朗暂停与国 际原子能机构合作，地缘担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看， OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消 费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较 大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹 油价企稳，库存下降，液化气反弹。地缘担忧再起，成本端油价企稳反弹； 下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库存均 上升。策略：短线反弹，但上方受限，反弹偏空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 现货涨价，华北基差为-64（环比+44），近期装置检修加强，新装置暂未 释放，供给压力边际缓解。LD、HD 进口窗口打开。需求淡季，下游刚需 拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等 合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产，中长期预期偏弱。策略：短期反弹思路对 待。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头反弹 出口毛利转正，低价成交略有放量，成本支撑好转，MTO 盘面利润同期 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹。消息称伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，地缘 担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增 产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支 撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买 看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹偏空 油价企稳叠加化工利润改善，液化气反弹。油价重回基本面定价，短线企 稳；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 中性偏空，厂库和港口库存均有所上升。策略：反弹偏空，可轻仓试空。 PG【4150-4300】 L 空头盘整 社会库存转为累库，现货继续下跌。华北基差为-108（环比-59），LD、 HD 进口窗口打开。装置重启增多，预计本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期 上中游库存显著下滑，需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化 力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产， 中长期预期偏弱。策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 下游订单持续偏弱，基差走弱，出 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term outlook for the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is a wide - range oscillation. This week's changes in PG were driven by both geopolitical dynamics and supply - demand fundamentals. The civil demand remains seasonally weak, while the overall chemical end - use开工率 continues to rise, which is expected to provide some short - term support. However, with the upcoming release of CP next week, the market may adopt a wait - and - see attitude. It is recommended to closely monitor the subsequent release of CP prices, PDH device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price & Spread - The international LPG market fluctuated significantly due to Middle - East geopolitical issues from June 21st to 27th, rising first and then falling, with the AFEI propane index dropping by $53.3 per ton to $538.25 per ton. The domestic market also showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The early increase in crude oil prices provided short - term cost support, but later, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and weak demand, prices declined. Regional transaction centers were divided, with the civil gas prices in Shandong and South China rising, the ether - post C4 in Shandong fluctuating widely after a sharp rise and fall, and the East China market oscillating weakly [4]. - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including futures and spot prices of LPG, APS propane, and AFE propane, as well as regional quotes, basis, and historical data on regional premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][11][13]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, over the years from 2019 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Middle - East Exports**: It provides historical data on LPG exports from the Middle - East, including data from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as well as LPG imports in India, China, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic LPG production volume increased slightly, with the propane import arrivals concentrated, sufficient supply, and an increase in port inventories. This week, China's propane supply was 646,200 tons, a 72.69% week - on - week increase. Domestically, the total refinery commodity volume was 43,000 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. The international vessel arrivals were 603,200 tons, mainly in South China [4][52]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand continued to recover. The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit operating rate increased by 3.61% to 70.54% week - on - week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 0.69% to 64.40%. Next week, although Wanda Tianhong plans to shut down for maintenance, Liaoning Jinfa, Hebei Haiwei, and Quanzhou Guoheng are expected to restart. Overall, China's PDH operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [4]. - The report also presents historical data on the profitability and operating rates of chemical products such as alkylation, PDH, and MTBE [55][56].