Core Viewpoint - International oil prices surged to a two-week high due to U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies, raising supply concerns in the market [2][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of October 23, WTI crude oil futures rose by 5.62% to $61.79 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 5.43% to $65.99 per barrel [2]. - Despite the recent surge, international oil prices have generally been on a downward trend this year, with prices frequently dipping below the critical $60 per barrel mark [2][7]. - Analysts predict that there may be upward potential for oil prices in the short term due to increased geopolitical tensions and sanctions against Russia [2][4]. Group 2: Sanctions and Supply Concerns - The recent rise in oil prices is primarily attributed to U.S. sanctions against two of Russia's largest oil companies, which have heightened market supply concerns [4]. - The sanctions are seen as a significant escalation in Washington's pressure on Moscow, increasing the likelihood of major disruptions in Russian oil production and exports [4]. - The European Union has also imposed sanctions on Russia, including a ban on importing liquefied natural gas and travel restrictions on Russian diplomats [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The overall oil market is expected to face downward pressure in the long term, particularly in the first half of next year, as OPEC+ may accelerate production increases [8][10]. - Analysts note that the global oil supply is projected to remain tight in 2024, but may become more relaxed by 2025 due to increased production capacity [8]. - The anticipated price range for Brent crude oil is expected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel, with potential declines to $52 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year [10].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional demand peak season in October has not significantly boosted the toluene market, leading to prices dropping to near five-year lows due to weak supply-demand fundamentals and declining prices of related products [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic toluene production capacity is expected to expand significantly in 2025, with new facilities from various companies adding nearly 1.7 million tons, resulting in a continuously increasing supply [3]. - The supply side remains robust, with minimal maintenance shutdowns in October and an expected increase in port arrivals, contributing to a supply surplus that weakens price support [3][8]. - The overall supply growth, coupled with weak demand, exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, putting downward pressure on prices [3][5]. Group 2: Demand Trends - As of September 2025, domestic gasoline shipping orders have decreased by approximately 8.67% year-on-year, indicating a persistent weak demand environment [5]. - The traditional peak season has not led to significant increases in demand from the refining sector, with overall oil adjustment demand remaining weak [5]. - Chemical sector demand is also insufficient, with many companies only maintaining essential procurement due to reduced profit margins from related products [5][8]. Group 3: Price Influences - Following the National Day holiday, toluene prices have continued to decline, with the Shandong market dropping below 5,000 yuan/ton, marking a new low since February 2021 [1][3]. - The decline in prices is influenced by falling crude oil prices and related products, which further depress market confidence [7]. - Short-term expectations suggest a potential rebound in prices due to low levels attracting some buyers, with forecasts indicating possible price increases to around 4,900-5,000 yuan/ton in Shandong and 5,100-5,250 yuan/ton in Jiangsu [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **PE**: Affected by geopolitics and macro - factors, international oil prices have rebounded strongly from a low level, enhancing cost support. However, the supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand follows up limitedly. Although the price has risen with cost support, the upside space is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Oil prices and propane prices have rebounded, increasing cost support. But the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly with large inventory de - stocking pressure. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6999元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6691元/吨（+72）。LL华北现货为6940元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6610元/吨（+50）。LL华北基差为 - 59元/吨（-3），LL华东基差为1元/吨（-23），PP华东基差为 - 81元/吨（-22） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为81.5%（-0.3%），PP开工率为75.9%（-2.3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为404.0元/吨（-87.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 236.0元/吨（-87.8），PDH制PP生产利润为63.7元/吨（-104.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 138.6元/吨（+8.8），PP进口利润为 - 367.2元/吨（+84.5），PP出口利润为 - 7.6美元/吨（-39.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为47.1%（+4.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.6%（+0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（+0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost support has increased, but the supply is expected to rise with limited downstream demand. The price has risen with cost support, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Cost support has strengthened, but the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Due to factors such as the decline in steel mill profits and high inventory pressure, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly operating and are expected to be in short - term consolidation, following the overall commodity environment due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [13]. - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With existing real - world constraints, it is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. - Glass is in the traditional peak - season end, with weak demand and increasing supply, and the market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short term [19]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.689%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,414 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 18,322 lots. In the spot market, the Tianjin aggregated price remained unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.869%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 896 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 8,822 lots. In the spot market, the Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and steel product prices showed weak oscillations. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small reduction in inventory, but demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, with prominent fundamental contradictions [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, up 0.58% (+4.50), with the open interest changing to 558,200 lots, a decrease of 4,570 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.76% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were at a high level in the same period. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. - Demand: The latest average daily hot - metal output was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons month - on - month. Some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. - Overall: Affected by factors such as profit decline and high inventory, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 22, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed up 1.11% at 5,810 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures. - The main ferrosilicon contract (SF601) closed up 1.17% at 5,558 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 112 yuan/ton over the futures. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are in an oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the price direction at the current trend line [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Current factors such as weak real - demand and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions have pressured prices. However, the market has insufficient trading of expectations for subsequent important meetings. There may be an expected difference. - It is not pessimistic about the future of the black sector. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8,485 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (-20). The weighted - contract open interest increased to 438,479 lots, an increase of 2,236 lots. In the spot market, the price of East China non - oxygen - permeable 553 remained unchanged, and the price of 421 decreased by 50 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by the overall market environment, industrial silicon prices are weakly operating. The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with overall supply pressure. The demand has potential risks of weakening support. Cost factors provide some support. Overall, it is expected to be in short - term consolidation and follow the commodity environment [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 50,310 yuan/ton, down 0.80% (-405). The weighted - contract open interest decreased to 247,499 lots, a decrease of 3,171 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2,690 yuan/ton for the main contract [14][15]. Strategy Viewpoints - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With factors such as over - expected production increase and reduced downstream production scheduling, there is real - world inventory pressure. It is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. Glass Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+7). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 372 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 9,410 short positions [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Entering the end of the traditional peak season, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. The market's supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term, and it is expected to remain weakly operating without external stimuli [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1,223 yuan/ton, up 1.07% (+13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders increased 2,351 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 12,374 short positions [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The soda ash industry has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - For electrolytic nickel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, with an expected trading range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Given a loose fundamental situation, high inventory pressure, and low valuation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies, with an expected trading range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Due to weak fundamentals and declining cost support, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][122]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.89%. Trading volume reached 486,300 lots (+196,400), and open interest was 60,500 lots (-17,300). LME nickel dropped 1.11% weekly, with trading volume at 34,600 lots (-6,400) [12]. - The basis premium was 1,240 yuan/ton [14]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, as did the shipping price from the Philippines to China [21]. - In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease but a 33.9% YoY increase [26]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 707,000 tons MoM, and port inventories rose by 30,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 14 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel narrowed [33]. - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, up 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY. Imports are expected to decline in October [36]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate rose. RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [40]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those in Indonesia increased [44]. - Nickel pig iron inventories decreased [46]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [50]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel decreased [54]. - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, and exports decreased [58]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [63][111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, while imports rose by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY. October's import and export volumes are expected to be similar to September's [67][114]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel declined, while that of nickel sulfate increased, widening the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is minimal [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors increased by 16.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, and those of ternary materials rose by 4.3% MoM and 33.7% YoY [77]. - In October, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 5.1% MoM and 24.3% YoY [79]. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, up 16.3% MoM and 23.7% YoY; sales were 1.604 million units, up 15.0% MoM and 24.6% YoY [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventories and LME nickel inventories increased [86]. - Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventories remained unchanged, while the six - region social total inventory increased by 4,014 tons [91]. 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from purchased nickel sulfate increased, while that from purchased nickel matte and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte integrated production [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Wait and see. Expected trading range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Loose fundamentals, high inventory pressure, and low valuation suggest low - level price fluctuations [95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures trended downward, with a weekly decline of 1.64%. The basis shrank to 970 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 716,700 lots (+557,400), and open interest was 197,700 lots (+144,300) [98]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support [102]. - Losses in the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel expanded [107]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. October's volumes are expected to be similar to September's [114]. 2.4 Inventory Side - Stainless Steel - Total domestic stainless steel social inventories decreased. 200 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased, while 300 - series inventories increased [120]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies. Expected trading range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Weak fundamentals, loose cost support, and inventory patterns suggest weak price oscillations [122].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak real demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. - For iron ore, due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in iron - making production pressure, and an accumulation of port inventories, iron ore prices are under pressure. The overall terminal demand is weak, and macro - level disturbances continue, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, although the current real - world situation is not ideal, most of it has been priced in. Macro - level factors may be more important. The market is not pessimistic about the black sector, and it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, supply pressure persists, and it is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. - For polysilicon, there are policy expectations, but real - world constraints also exist. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. - For glass, with high inventory levels and weak downstream demand, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. - For soda ash, in the context of weak supply and demand, insufficient cost and demand support, the market is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 277,451 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 2.004317 million lots, a decrease of 35,070 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanghai it was 3200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.46%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,411 tons, a decrease of 2694 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.496079 million lots, an increase of 16,084 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to have an important guiding significance for the macro - economic trend. Attention should also be paid to the meeting's stance and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, and the fundamental contradiction was prominent, with the coil - rebar spread continuing to narrow [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50), and the open interest increased by 9848 lots to 545,400 lots. The weighted open interest was 905,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - term arrival volume increased to a high level in the same period. - Demand: The latest average daily pig iron production was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons. There were both blast furnace restarts and overhauls, and some blast furnaces began overhauls due to profit declines. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Terminal: The inventory pressure of sheet metal remained high, and the structural contradiction within the finished products still existed. Overall, iron ore prices were under pressure, and the short - term commodity environment was still under pressure. If a new round of economic and trade consultations is initiated, market sentiment may improve [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On October 17, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.63% at 5718 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the delivery - equivalent price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 152 yuan/ton over the futures. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) closed down 0.48% at 5430 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 170 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. Strategy Viewpoints - The short - term real - world demand pressure on prices has been reflected in the market. Macro - level factors such as important meetings may be more important. Although the current real - world situation is not ideal, it has mostly been priced in. - The market is not pessimistic about the black sector. It may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon's potential driver may come from the manganese ore end, and silicon iron is likely to follow the black sector's trend with low operational cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.03% (- 175). The weighted contract open interest increased by 12,173 lots to 442,119 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 870 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis for the main contract after conversion was 470 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price fluctuated lower. Supply showed a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with an overall increase in weekly production. Demand was under pressure, and cost factors provided some support. It was likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,340 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.45% (- 235). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 1633 lots to 276,945 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.25 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of 460 yuan/ton for the main contract [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - There were policy expectations for polysilicon, and the contract price rebounded. However, real - world constraints still existed, with an unexpected increase in production scheduling in October, a decrease in downstream silicon wafer production scheduling, and continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. Glass Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 1.59% (+ 18). The quoted price of large - sized glass in North China was 1180 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1200 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 64.2756 million cases, an increase of 1.4516 million cases (+ 2.31%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 53,303 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 117,133 lots [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Float glass factories had high inventory levels and faced great pressure to sell. Traders mainly focused on stabilizing prices and reducing inventory. The market lacked substantial positive support, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The market was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 0.24% (+ 3). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7005 million tons, an increase of 40,700 tons (+ 2.31%), including an increase of 20,000 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 20,700 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 11,705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 31,185 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market continued to be weak and stable, with the price center basically unchanged. The industry's fundamentals had not improved substantially, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose, with enterprises generally in a loss - making state. Supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly, and demand was weak. The market was expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory, insufficient demand, new device production, and weakened cost support from falling oil prices. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - The PP market is affected by weakening costs (falling oil and propane prices). Supply is increasing while demand fails to meet expectations, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to the impact on propane supply and marginal device operations [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both L and PP in the single - side trading. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. For cross - variety trading, shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3] Summaries by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6929 yuan/ton (+19), and the PP main contract is 6618 yuan/ton (+23). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 434.2 yuan/ton (-18.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 135.8 yuan/ton (-18.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is 64.9 yuan/ton (-109.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 165.0 yuan/ton (-56.8), PP import profit is - 537.9 yuan/ton (+16.1), and PP export profit is 26.9 dollars/ton (+3.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, inventory of major plastic producers has increased significantly. Demand is insufficient, and new device production and falling oil prices have weakened cost support. Supply is expected to increase, demand is lower than expected, and cost support is weakening. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - **PP**: The recent weakening of the PP market is due to falling oil and propane prices. Supply is increasing, demand fails to meet expectations, and cost support is weak. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to propane supply and marginal device operations [2] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see for both L and PP [3] - **Cross - period**: Reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [3] - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3]

Group 1: Iran's Negotiation Stance - Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif emphasized that negotiations with the U.S. must be based on equality and mutual respect, focusing solely on nuclear issues [1][2] - Zarif rejected U.S. demands to relinquish all 60% enriched uranium in exchange for a six-month delay in sanctions, calling it unreasonable and unacceptable [1][2] - Iran is open to negotiations if a reasonable and balanced proposal is presented that safeguards the interests of the Iranian people [2] Group 2: Trade Tensions Impacting Oil Prices - Global commodity markets are under pressure from escalating trade tensions, leading to significant declines in both crude oil and base metals [3][4] - WTI crude oil futures fell to $58.90 per barrel, a decrease of 4.24%, marking the lowest point since May [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including reduced geopolitical risks and a shift in focus back to fundamental supply and demand dynamics [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics in Oil Market - Seasonal demand fluctuations are impacting oil prices, with a typical decline in consumption following the summer peak [4] - OPEC+ has increased production by approximately 1.5 million barrels per day since April, contributing to supply pressures [4] - EIA forecasts indicate significant inventory build-up in late 2025 and early 2026, with average daily accumulations expected to reach 2.6 million barrels in Q4 2025 [4] Group 4: Outlook for Oil Prices - Analysts predict further declines in oil prices due to ongoing supply increases and weakening demand, with expectations of prices fluctuating between $55 and $65 per barrel [5] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on oil prices remains a critical factor to monitor in the coming weeks [5] Group 5: Base Metals Market Trends - Base metals, particularly copper and tin, experienced significant declines, influenced by renewed trade tensions [6][7] - Despite recent downturns, the fundamentals for certain metals remain strong, with tight supply conditions for copper due to production adjustments by mining companies [6][7] - The overall performance of the base metals market is expected to be driven by macroeconomic factors, with potential support from improved market liquidity due to anticipated interest rate cuts [6][7]

Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Negotiations - Iran has rejected the U.S. proposal to exchange all enriched uranium for a three-month sanctions pause, stating it is "absolutely unacceptable" [2][3] - Iranian President Pezeshkian mentioned that Iran has made necessary arrangements to respond to the activation of the "snapback sanctions" mechanism [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized the UK, France, and Germany for their irresponsible actions regarding the nuclear agreement and recalled ambassadors for consultations [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have shown a strong performance recently, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures rising by 4.6% and domestic SC crude oil futures increasing by 3.8% over three trading days [7] - Multiple geopolitical factors, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Iranian nuclear negotiations, are contributing to the oil market's strength [7][8] - The ongoing conflict has led to concerns over energy supply, with Ukraine escalating attacks on Russian energy facilities, affecting Russia's refining capacity [8][9] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Analysts indicate that the current support for oil prices stems from supply concerns due to geopolitical conflicts and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [9][10] - The market is assessing the real impact of Russian exports and the potential tightening of sanctions by the U.S. and Europe [10] - Future oil price movements are expected to be volatile, balancing between geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals, with a tendency towards a downward shift in price levels [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro - expectation has improved, and prices are fluctuating widely. Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal prices are all in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors for each [1][3][5][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The futures price of rebar was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was firm. The trading volume of building materials increased slightly compared with the previous day. The rebar main contract closed at 3164 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3357 yuan/ton. The total national building materials trading volume was 103,859 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The downstream demand has restocking needs before the festival, and merchants are more reluctant to sell. With the implementation of relevant "anti - involution" policies, the chasing - up sentiment has declined. The short - term market trading may return to the supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term building steel prices will enter a wide - range oscillation stage [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened slightly. The iron ore main 2601 contract closed at 803.5 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 155 million tons, a 13.46% decrease from the previous day; the forward spot trading volume was 65 million tons, a 71.37% decrease from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The arrival of iron ore this week decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the port inventory increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years. The restocking demand of steel mills before the National Day has been released. The hot - metal output is still at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on the arrival and the restocking rhythm of steel mills before the festival [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of double - coking oscillated. Due to restocking before the double festivals, the price of coking coal continued to rise, and the cost of coke increased. Some coke enterprises have proposed to raise the coke price. The production of domestic coal mines is relatively stable, and some coal mines have plans to stop production during the National Day, with limited impact on supply. The available high - quality resources at the Mongolian coal port are scarce, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to 1030 - 1040 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coke is basically stable, with strong rigid demand support, but the terminal demand recovery is less than expected, the steel inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged, and the pre - festival restocking intensity is relatively limited, so the coke supply and demand are basically balanced. The production of coal mines is gradually recovering, the demand is considerable, but the inventory continues to accumulate, which suppresses the price [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to be in an oscillatory state for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas remained stable. The over - production verification in the production areas continued to be strengthened, but the overall impact was limited. The coal supply at the mine mouth was sufficient, and the prices of some coal mines with low inventory remained stable. At the port, as the mine - mouth coal price continued to rise, the buyer's resistance increased, the pre - festival restocking was basically completed, and the market demand continued to decline. The tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the price of low - calorie domestic coal rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The safety supervision in the production areas has become stricter, the supply is relatively sufficient, the daily consumption of thermal coal has begun to decline, and the non - power demand such as the chemical industry has decreased. The short - term coal price will oscillate. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8].