Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. The LPR and deposit rates have decreased, leading to a recovery in the consumer sector. Short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and precious metals have rebounded after a decline. Various commodities such as shipping, industrial materials, and agricultural products show different trends and characteristics [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - For stock index futures (IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506), sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered - call strategy. For Treasury bond futures (T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506), short - term Treasury bonds may be in a shock, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital dynamics. For precious metals (AU2508, AG2508), short - term gold should focus on regaining the $3300 (775 yuan) mark, and silver will follow gold and fluctuate strongly in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. Black - The shipping index (EC2508) is in short - term shock consolidation, and 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads can be considered. For steel (RB2510), industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore (I2509) fluctuates in the range of 700 - 745. Coke (J2509) has entered a new price cut stage, and coal prices may be in the bottom - seeking stage. Strategies such as long hot - rolled coils and short coke, long hot - rolled coils and short coking coal can be considered [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper (CU2506) should focus on the pressure level of 78000 - 79000, zinc (ZN2507) has strong upper pressure, and nickel (NI2506) and stainless steel (SS2507) maintain a weak shock. Tin (SN2506) should be treated with a bearish rebound approach [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude oil (SC2507) is affected by macro and geopolitical risks, and the WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [450, 510]. Urea (UR2509) has low market demand activity and short - term shock. PX (PX2509) and PTA (TA2509) are under short - term pressure, and short - fiber (PF2507), bottle - grade polyester chips (PR2507), ethanol (EG2509), etc. have different trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural - Soybean meal (M2509, RM509) is suppressed by arrival pressure, and the performance around 2900 should be observed. Live pigs (6095ZHT) are in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the 13500 support. Corn (C2507) is in a shock correction, and attention should be paid to the 2300 support. Palm oil may reach 8200. Other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own characteristics and trading suggestions [2]. Special Commodities - Glass (FG2509) is pessimistic in the market, and attention should be paid to the 1000 - point support. Rubber (RU2509) has risen slightly due to storage news, and the upper limit of the range can be lightly short - sold. Industrial silicon (Si2506) has broken through the position and fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon (PS2506) futures are falling in a shock, and long positions should be closed. Lithium carbonate (LC2507) is in a weak operation, and the main contract is expected to run between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are weak. Although there has been some production reduction on the supply side, the approaching wet season in the southwest region is expected to increase supply. The falling prices of silicon coal and electricity during the wet season have weakened cost support. On the consumption side, performance is weak, with the possibility of further production cuts [2]. - The futures market for polysilicon has been volatile recently. Downstream production scheduling has decreased month-on-month. News of joint production cuts by silicon material factories has had a significant impact on the market. Attention should be paid to changes in the number of warehouse receipts and the impact of position reduction on the market [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On May 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 opened at 8,320 yuan/ton and closed at 8,230 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2505 had a position of 162,299 lots, and on May 14, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,494 lots, a change of -603 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,700 - 10,300 yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton; and 99 silicon was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton. In recent days, downstream alloy users have placed orders, and some traders reported improved trading volumes compared to last week. Sellers' quotes remained stable, but downstream users still had a tendency to bargain [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon DMC enterprises maintained stable quotes, with local transaction prices slightly decreasing. The overall transaction range was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, but market transaction expectations were not strong. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed. It is expected that after May 20, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories will be depleted, which may drive market trading volumes [1]. Polysilicon - On May 13, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 rose significantly and then declined. It opened at 38,230 yuan/ton and closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, a 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 52,252 lots (69,417 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 321,982 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of polysilicon reclaimed material was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower polysilicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg; N-type material was 37.00 - 44.00 yuan/kg; and N-type granular silicon was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventories decreased, as did silicon wafer inventories. The latest statistics showed polysilicon inventory at 25.70 (a month-on-month change of -1.90%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.13GW (a month-on-month change of -12.08%), weekly polysilicon production at 21,400.00 tons (a month-on-month change of -4.46%), and silicon wafer production at 12.35GW (a month-on-month change of -7.07%) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.98 yuan/piece, N-type 210mm was 1.30 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R silicon wafers were 1.10 yuan/piece. For battery cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.27 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; and HJT210 half-cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W. For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. Upstream enterprises should sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on the 2506 contract [7]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, sugar has a changing supply - demand balance both internationally and domestically, the oil market is affected by supply - side and demand - side factors, and PVC has issues with weak domestic demand and ongoing inventory reduction [1][2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Day - to - day View**: Weak and stable [1] - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [1] - **Core Logic**: Supply is abundant as the inventory of breeding sows has been high, and the pressure of supply is postponed. Demand has the potential to increase due to possible stockpiling by slaughterhouses. Currently, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is likely to decline in the short term [1][2] Sugar - **Day - to - day View**: Reach the bottom and then rise [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rise first and then fall [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cumulative purchase options [3] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, Brazil's new sugar - making season is expected to increase production, while India has a significant reduction. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been basically fulfilled, and the sales progress is good. The overall supply - demand is tight, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] Crude Oil - **Day - to - day View**: Weak oscillation [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell futures contracts and buy call options for protection [6] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production, and US sanctions may affect the supply of some countries. On the demand side, there is a seasonal increase in demand, but the refinery's operating rate is low. The overall oil price will be volatile, with potential for short - term increases but also a risk of decline in the second quarter [7][8][9] PVC - **Day - to - day View**: Weak operation [10] - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward driving force [12] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PVC out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [12] - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide is supported, supply has increased, domestic demand is weak, and inventory has been decreasing. The future price may be affected by macro - policies [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the "production cut" driving force has cooled down, and the disk profit has declined. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement stage. It is recommended to reduce the single - side exposure and hold a light position during the May Day holiday [4]. - For coking coal and coke, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of top - charged coke, and coking coal auctions continue to weaken. It is recommended to short coal and coke on rallies in May and hold a light position during the holiday [5]. - For ferroalloys, the production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron supply and demand are tightening, while manganese - silicon is still in an oversupply state. It is recommended that industrial customers control risks and silicon - iron can be tried to go long at low prices [7]. - For iron ore, the "small essays" dominate the disk trading logic again. It is not recommended to hold long iron ore orders under the production - limit expectation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On April 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3128 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.29%), HC2601 at 3238 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan, - 1.04%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan, - 1.21%), HC2510 at 3210 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan, - 1.26%), etc. [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: On April 29, RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (unchanged), HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), etc. [2] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On April 29, the coil - rebar spread was 110 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), the rebar - ore ratio was 4.37 (down 0.03), etc. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: On April 29, Shanghai rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), etc. [2] Specific Commodities - **Rebar**: The "production cut" speculation has cooled down, prices and disk profits have declined. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Some steel mills plan to cut the coke price, coking coal auctions are weak. The fundamentals may weaken in May, and shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - **Ferroalloys**: The production cut area in Ningxia has expanded. Silicon - iron is in a better fundamental state, and it is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The "small essays" affect the market. High - level hot metal provides some support, but long positions are not recommended under the production - limit expectation [8].

胎年金属数据日报 周一期价冲高回落,盘面情绪在"减产"消息影响下略好了些,至少在这个消息驱动下,钢材可能还是最优多头配置品种, 现货跟涨略显乏力,成交尚可。市场传闻的28号会议暂时也没有新的消息,传闻搁置对行情无法产生新的驱动。宏观层 面,28号新闻发布会上能量化的增量信息不多,市场更希望看到有实打实的政策落地,或许才会更有信心;微观层面,供 需矛盾不突出,钢材库存还处于季节性改善的阶段,反馈到价格行为上,更多是一种"现实不差但预期很差" 的阶段, "预期差"来自于5月以后建材进入季节性淡季以及出口链条开始逐渐转弱,没有信心导致卖方持货意愿不高;品种估值并 不算高,单边投机追空的性价比不高。总体看,五一长假临近,单边敬口降低轻仓过节仍是主要思路。 【焦煤焦炭】第二轮提涨难落地,焦煤竞拍持续走弱 现货端,部分钢厂拒绝焦炭第二轮提涨,市场情绪较弱,炼焦煤竞拍持续走弱,成交价格以下跌为主,港口贸易准一焦炭服 价1350(->,炼焦煤价格指数1090.3(-2.0);蒙煤方面,甘其毛都口岸通关大幅下降,降库明显,但整体供应依然充 裕,市场弱稳运行,现甘其毛都口岸:蒙5原煤835(-),蒙5精煤1030 (-10),蒙 ...

Group 1: Silicon Iron - The silicon iron market continues to experience a reduction in production, with factory inventories decreasing, although overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [1] - Demand for molten iron has significantly increased to 2.44 million tons, primarily due to the recovery of steel mill profits and the resumption of large blast furnaces [1] - The export of silicon iron in March saw a month-on-month increase of 24.46%, but the market generally believes this growth lacks sustainability [1] Group 2: Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon market maintains a reduction in production, with the pace of reduction remaining stable compared to the previous period [2] - The demand side shows that the steel procurement for April is nearing its end, with significant increases in molten iron production to 2.44 million tons due to steel mill profit recovery [2] - The global shipment of manganese ore has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, leading to a rise in port inventories [2]