Economic Growth Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target[2] - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from Q2[2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3, while net exports contributed 1.2 percentage points, maintaining the same support as in Q2[2] Price and Income Trends - The GDP deflator index in Q3 showed a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, an improvement of 0.2 percentage points from Q2, with nominal GDP growth at 3.73%[2] - Per capita disposable income and expenditure growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.1% and 4.6%, respectively, both slightly lower than the first half of the year[2] - Per capita wage income increased by 5.4%, while net property income grew by 1.7%[2] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - In September, industrial production value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The service sector production index also grew by 5.6% year-on-year in September, consistent with the previous month[2] - Exports showed recovery, with the export delivery value in September increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, up 4.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Investment and Consumption Insights - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, a decline of 1 percentage point from the previous month[2] - Equipment investment rose by 14.0% year-on-year, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth[2] - Real estate investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, significantly impacting overall investment growth[2] Future Outlook - The government is expected to enhance fiscal investment efforts, with 500 billion yuan in new policy tools being deployed starting from the end of September[2] - The increase in fiscal support is anticipated to aid in achieving the annual growth target more effectively[2]

Trade Policy Concerns - NFTC urges the Trump administration to immediately suspend the "affiliate rule" [1] - The rule has caused billions of US dollars in US exports to stall [1] - The rule may prompt China and other countries to exclude US companies from their supply chains [1] - The rule contradicts Trump's desire to reduce trade deficits and expand US exports [1] Regulatory Impact - The "affiliate rule" prohibits US companies from exporting goods and technology to companies partially owned by sanctioned entities [1] Government Response - The White House and the US Department of Commerce have not responded to requests for comment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the weakening of domestic demand and the need for increased policy support as the economy faces growing pressure, with GDP growth falling below 5% for the third quarter [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][5]. - The contribution of capital formation to GDP growth has decreased, while consumption and net exports have increased their contributions [5][6]. - Investment growth has continued to decline, with fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.5% for the first nine months [6][7]. Sector Analysis - Industrial production in September saw a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, supported by external demand, while fixed asset investment has turned negative due to a significant drop in construction and installation projects [6][7]. - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with new housing sales down by 10.5% year-on-year in September, and development investment declining further [8][26][27]. - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% in September, influenced by the tapering of the "old-for-new" policy and a higher base from the previous year [8][29]. Investment Outlook - The article suggests that to achieve the annual GDP growth target of around 5%, there may be a need for more robust growth-stabilizing policies in the coming months [4][5]. - The manufacturing sector's investment growth has declined but remains better than that of real estate and infrastructure, supported by export resilience and policy backing [6][7]. - The financial sector is expected to benefit from higher market activity, with non-financial sectors like gold and technology hardware anticipated to be structural highlights [9][11].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with cement dispatch rates and grinding mill operation rates also low compared to historical averages[13] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[22] - Building demand remains weak, while automotive sales show signs of recovery, with rolling sales of passenger cars increasing year-on-year[31] Price Trends - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a downward trend[42] - International commodity prices are mixed, with oil prices declining while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are rising[39] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show an expanding year-on-year decline, with a 3% decrease in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and declines of -32% and -28% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are weakening, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities: Beijing -38%, Shanghai -23%, and Shenzhen -34%[62] Export Performance - Export growth for the period before October 19 is estimated at 2-3%, with port throughput increasing by 8.1% year-on-year[65] Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.41% as of October 17[67] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 22,018 million yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[69] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[72]

Export Volume - China's rare earth magnet exports in September decreased by 6% compared to August, totaling 5774 tons [1] - September exports to the US decreased by 28.7% month-over-month [1] Export Destinations - The top five destinations for China's rare earth exports in September were Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States, and Mexico [1]

Report Information - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.10.12 - 2025.10.18) [3] - Date: October 18, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Lv Qiang, Wang Zheyi [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an analysis of the economic situation from multiple aspects during the period of 2025.10.12 - 2025.10.18, indicating that the industrial production shows a seasonal rebound, personnel flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction investment is weak but the real - estate market rebounds seasonally, and export port throughput decreases with differentiated shipping indices. Also, various major policy events have occurred during this period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Large - Scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. The ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index had the largest weekly increase of 0.33%. The STAR 50 Index had the largest weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index had the largest decline of 3.43%. The Japanese yen had the largest increase against the RMB with a weekly increase of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB with a weekly increase of 0.05% [3]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production showed a seasonal rebound. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week. The petroleum asphalt plant operation rate increased by 1.30 percentage points to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operation rate remained the same as last week at 84.25%, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operation rate increased by 1.35 percentage points to 41.33% week - on - week, the float glass operation rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 76.65%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operation rate decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 91.06% week - on - week, the PTA operation rate decreased by 1.92 percentage points to 75.56%, and the methanol operation rate increased by 4.00 percentage points to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automobile chain, the automobile semi - steel tire operation rate increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72% week - on - week, and the automobile all - steel tire operation rate increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% week - on - week [3]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow increased, and freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3]. 3.4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales declined, and prices showed a mixed performance. The previous - period automobile wholesale decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail increased by 7.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate declined. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The pork price decreased by 2.38% week - on - week, and the vegetable price increased by 0.13% week - on - week [3]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed weak performance, and the real - estate market rebounded seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate decreased by 2.1 percentage points week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 percentage points week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices showed a mixed performance. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [3]. 3.7. Major Policies/Events - On October 13, the year - on - year export in September 2025 was 8.3%, exceeding expectations. On October 14, China imposed countermeasures on 5 US subsidiaries of South Korea's Hwa Ocean Co., Ltd. On October 14, the central bank announced a 6 - month repurchase of 600 billion yuan on October 15. On October 15, the year - on - year growth rates of CPI and PPI improved moderately. On October 15, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing decreased. On October 17, the central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [3].

Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, including industrial production, people and freight flow, consumption, investment, export, and the performance of major asset classes. It points out that industrial production shows seasonal recovery, people flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction shows weakness while the real - estate market recovers seasonally, port throughput decreases, and shipping indices are differentiated. Also, major asset classes show distinct trends with bond indices rising, stock indices falling, most commodities dropping, and foreign currencies appreciating [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 0.33%; the STAR 50 Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index fell the most, with a decline of 3.43%. Foreign currencies appreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest increase, a weekly gain of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciating against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.05% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Production shows seasonal recovery. In the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.25% compared with last week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar production increased by 1.35 pcts to 41.33% week - on - week, the operating rate of float glass increased by 0.34 pcts to 76.65% week - on - week, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 pcts to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament decreased by 0.03 pcts to 91.06% week - on - week, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 1.92 pcts to 75.56% week - on - week, and the operating rate of methanol increased by 4.00 pcts to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 pcts to 72.72% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 20.56 pcts to 64.52% week - on - week [1]. 3. People and Freight Flow - People flow increased, while freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, but the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales showed a decline, and prices were differentiated. The previous period's automobile wholesale sales decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail sales increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates both declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices were differentiated, with pork prices decreasing by 2.38% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 0.13% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction showed weakness, while the real - estate market recovered seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 2.1 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices were differentiated. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the SCFI index increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the CCFI index decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is already at a low level, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Price) - On October 15, UR01 was 1597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or 0.19% from October 14; UR05 was 1671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.12%; UR09 was 1707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - On October 15, the prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, 1590 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1560 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi was 1460 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.68% from October 14 [1]. Basis and Spread - On October 15, the spread between Shandong spot and UR01 was - 121 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan from October 14; the spread between 01 - 05 was - 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [1]. Upstream Cost - On October 15, the anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - On October 15, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1611 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1596 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1600 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1604 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 322,686 lots [1].

Core Viewpoint - The price of urea in China has been declining, with the average price for small granular urea at 1616.50 yuan/ton as of October 11, 2025, representing a 16.19% decrease compared to 2024, and is now below the average price of the past decade [2] Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand for urea are expected to grow in 2025, but the growth rate of demand is significantly lower than that of supply, leading to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - Urea production capacity in China has increased to 79.15 million tons in 2025, a 2.51% increase year-on-year, with an average daily output of 197,000 tons, which is higher than the previous years' levels of 150,000 to 170,000 tons [4][5] - The domestic urea inventory reached 1.338 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a 101.8% increase from the year's low, with an average annual inventory of 1.073 million tons, marking a 70.6% increase from 2024 [5] Price Trends - The urea market has shown a trend of first rising and then falling throughout 2025, with significant price drops in the third quarter. Prices fell from over 1800 yuan/ton in June to as low as 1560 yuan/ton in early October [4] - The decline in urea prices is primarily attributed to oversupply, as new production capacities have been added over the past three years, while domestic consumption growth has not kept pace [4][6] Industry Performance - Companies in the urea sector are experiencing significant financial difficulties due to falling prices. For instance, Lu Hua Technology reported a net loss of 229 million yuan in the first half of 2025, while Sichuan Meifeng's net profit dropped by 95.17% to 803,130 yuan [3][10] - The overall performance of the urea industry has been impacted by high operating rates and adverse weather conditions, leading to a sustained oversupply and downward pressure on prices [11] Future Outlook - The market is currently under pressure, but there may be opportunities for price rebounds in the fourth quarter as domestic storage efforts begin and some production facilities undergo maintenance [7] - The focus will be on export dynamics and changes in domestic production capacity, as the market continues to navigate the challenges of high supply levels [7]

Trade Performance - China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year-over-year increase for the first three quarters [1] - Exports amounted to 19.95 trillion yuan, showing a 7.1% year-over-year increase [1] - Imports totaled 13.66 trillion yuan, a 0.2% year-over-year decrease [1] - In September alone, total trade volume was 4.04 trillion yuan, an 8% year-over-year increase [1]