Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report Polyester Industry - PX: Recent downstream demand and new device commissioning limit short - term downside. Strategies include focusing on 6500 support, 9 - 1 reverse spread, and narrowing PX - SC spread [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but short - term support is strong due to raw materials. Strategies are to focus on 4600 support and 9 - 1 reverse spread [20]. - MEG: June supply remains low, with de - stocking expected. Strategies are to focus on 4200 support for EG09 and 9 - 1 positive spread [20]. - Short - fiber: Price and basis are boosted, but processing fee repair is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA for PF and expanding processing fee at low levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: June supply - demand may improve, processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA for PR and expanding processing fee at the lower end of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [20]. Methanol Industry - Market sentiment recovers, but the driving force is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but the port's July inventory build - up expectation remains. The unilateral range is 2150 - 2350 [23]. PE and PP Industry - Plastic: Early June maintenance increases, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decline. PP: June maintenance returns, increasing supply pressure. Strategies are to go short on PP at high prices and expect LP spread to expand [31]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebound and then fall significantly. Short - term, the market is range - bound. Long - term, a band - trading approach is recommended. WTI range is [59, 69], Brent is [61, 71], and SC is [440, 500]. Options can use a straddle structure [36]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Supply - side contradiction is limited, demand from alumina supports prices. Short - term, spot is strong, and consider expanding the near - month to 09 spread [40]. - PVC: Long - term, supply - demand is weak. Short - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is sluggish. Maintain a short - selling strategy with a range of 4500 - 5000 [40]. Urea Industry - The market has priced in strong supply and weak demand. Future supply contraction, cost support, agricultural demand time - difference, and potential export increase may form a multi - factor resonance [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude (August) on June 4 was 64.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.77 dollars from the previous day. CFR China PX was 852 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [20]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 72.0%, up 2.6% from the previous period. PTA开工率 was 75.7%, down 1.4% [20]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price on June 4 was 2330 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The port - to - inland price difference increased [24]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.049%, up 4.38%. Methanol port inventory was 58.1 million tons, up 11.14% [24]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 12%, down 62.5%. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 84.52%, up 1.0% [24]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price on June 4 was 7018 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. The basis of some products decreased [27]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 was 51.8 million tons, up 7.41%. PP贸易商库存 was 13.6 million tons, down 11.05% [29][30]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 was 76.8%, down 1.51%. PP装置开工率 was 75.4%, down 1.8% [29][30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent on June 5 was 64.77 dollars/barrel, down 0.09 dollars. The crack spread of some refined oils changed slightly [36]. - **EIA Data**: As of May 30, US crude production was 1340.8 million barrels/day, up 0.7 million barrels/day. Commercial crude inventory decreased by 430.4 million barrels [44]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The export profit of caustic soda decreased [40]. - **开工率**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.2%, up 0.4%. PVC总开工率 was 74.6%, up 1.5% [40]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 20.8 million tons, up 1.8%. PVC总社会库存 was 36.3 million tons, down 1.5% [40]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: 01 contract closing price on June 4 was 1706 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between some contracts changed [51][52]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea internal inventory was 103.54 million tons, up 5.48%. Port inventory was 20.50 million tons, unchanged [57]. - **开工率**: Urea production factory开工率 was 90.16%, up 0.63% [57].

P T A | POY 1 | 石脑油 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | 石脑油裂 | PTA加 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 | 日期 | 原油 | 50D/4 | PX加工差 | 聚酯毛利 | TA基差 产销 | 日本 | 台湾 | 货 | 解价差 | 工差 | 负荷 | 荷 | 效预报 | 8F | 2025/0 | 64.1 | 567 | 842 | 4880 | 6990 | 97.22 | 275.0 | 271 | 156 | 87.3 | 76.4 | 56308 | 175 | 0.50 | 5/27 | 2025/0 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Proximal TA start - up increased, polyester start - up decreased from high levels, inventory continued to decline, basis strengthened, and spot processing fees decreased but remained at a relatively high level. PX domestic start - up increased, there were unexpected overseas maintenance, PXN decreased slightly, the structure remained, isomerization and disproportionation benefits weakened slightly, and the US - Asia aromatics spread increased. In the future, polyester output is expected to decline, and the low processing fee state of bottle chips continues. TA has fully implemented maintenance in the first half of the year and still has production plans, so it has high requirements for further inventory reduction. When the downstream exceeds expectations, the inventory reduction link will gradually shift to PX. Pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the far - month TA processing fee [1] - **MEG**: Proximal domestic oil - based start - up decreased slightly, coal - based maintenance and restart coexisted, start - up decreased slightly, port inventory continued to decline due to less arrivals, downstream inventory levels decreased, basis strengthened, and profits continued to increase. Overall, there are unexpected device situations in the near term. With the supply of oil - based products decreasing more than expected and the short - term resilience of the demand side still existing, the reduction of port inventory is expected to be more significant. Pay attention to the staged positive set opportunity [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Proximal Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, start - up decreased to 93.2%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn increased, raw material inventory decreased, and inventory increased month - on - month, with benefits still weakening. Generally, the benefits of staple fiber are low, but the start - up has not decreased significantly. With high self - supply and downstream profit under pressure, the fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly. However, the disk processing fee has been compressed to a relatively low level and is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to subsequent production reduction actions [2] - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory decreased slightly, and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the enthusiasm for tapping rubber at this price is expected to be okay. The strategy is to wait and see [2] - **Styrene and Derivatives**: The prices of related products such as styrene, EPS, and PS changed, and the domestic profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated. The price of pure benzene and its spread with naphtha also changed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated, PTA spot prices changed between 4860 - 4910, PTA processing fees ranged from 85.54 - 97.22, and PTA load remained at 77.1. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+185) [1] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device restarted [1] MEG - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of MEG in Northeast Asia remained at 780, the port inventory price fluctuated between 521 - 530, and the profit of MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) changed between - 372 - 540. The negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4524 - 4532, and the basis was around 09(+150) [2] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton MEG device in Sanjiang reduced its load [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the spot price of polyester staple fiber was around 6515, and the market basis was around 07 - 30 [2] - **Device Situation**: Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, and the start - up decreased to 93.2% [2] Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Shanghai full - latex, Thai cup lump rubber, etc., changed. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14540 to 13800 [2] Styrene and Derivatives - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, EPS, etc. changed. For example, the price of styrene in China decreased from 7825 to 7650, and the price of pure benzene decreased from 8850 to 8750. The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 01 02 09 05 09 01 05 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2024- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2023- 2025- 2025- 05 09 01 05 0d 01 05 0 ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/5/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/5/22 | 2025/5/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 453. 7 | 452. 8 | -0. 90 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情上涨,主因是华东一套270万吨PTA装置 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1404. 9 | 1425.5 | 20. 54 | 官宣下周末检修,预估6月上旬PTA再度加速去库存, 现货基差走强,利好市场心态。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.4261 | 1. 4332 | 0. 0071 | | | | CFR中国PX | 823 | 826 | 3 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 246 | 266 | 19 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4702 | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The market's focus has been shifting between macro and geopolitical factors, with oil prices in a range - bound consolidation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] - The gasoline crack has rebounded recently, but its seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand for gasoline is not promising this year, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level due to macro - level positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants. In May, domestic PX maintenance plants will gradually restart, and PX will continue to draw down inventory under the commissioning of new PTA plants [2] - The PTA spot basis has weakened, and the processing fees have declined. With the high - operation of downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to draw down inventory significantly in May. As the PTA price rebounds, the maintenance of PTA plants is postponed, and the supply will gradually return [3] - The polyester operating rate has increased, and downstream orders have improved after the positive progress of the China - US negotiations and tariff reduction. The inventory of filament has decreased significantly, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3] - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, and the market supply is gradually rising, which may put pressure on the market price. Attention should be paid to the maintenance news of bottle - chip plants due to rising costs [4] - After the continuous and rapid rise, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer at low levels, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the support from the crude oil cost side [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filament products, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and processing fees of related yarns [71][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various price spreads [91][93][99]

芳烙橡胶早报 價H 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/21 P 不 A 点 点 点 用 POY 1 PX CFR PTA内盘现 仓单+有 PTA平衡 石脑油 石脑油裂 PTA加 PTA负 TA基美 50D/4 聚酯毛利 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 台湾 解价差 工差 效预报 日本 न्ह 负荷 荷 8F 图什 2025/0 870 5095 7000 105.56 85394 240 0.40 66.1 590 280.0 324 -59 86.9 76.9 5/14 2025/0 80258 64.5 572 853 5030 7050 99.00 281.0 353 65 86.9 76.9 215 0.30 5/15 (图H 2025/0 65.4 4990 7050 103 87.9 200 0.25 565 839 85.92 274.0 386 76.9 70046 5/16 2025/0 841 4995 7025 88.97 272.0 380 68831 200 0.35 65.5 ୧୧୫ 75 87.9 76.9 5/19 2025/0 r ( 65.4 570 827 4860 702 ...

音紧像胶呈报 图书 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/19 P 不 A A POY 1 PTA加 仓单+有 PX CFR PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 PTA负 石脑油 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 TA基美 50D/4 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 台湾 工差 效预报 日本 न्ह 解价差 荷 负荷 8F rest 2025/0 4840 65.0 ୧୧୧ 839 6675 85.92 274.0 386 -87 86.9 76.9 88754 180 1.15 5/12 2025/0 85172 66.6 576 846 4935 6840 87.60 270.0 298 -29 86.9 76.9 200 0.50 5/13 l RiH 2025/0 7000 105.56 240 0.40 66.1 590 870 5085 280.0 324 -59 86.9 76.9 85394 5/14 2025/0 572 853 5030 7050 353 80258 0.30 64.5 99.00 281.0 65 86.9 76.9 215 5/15 2025/0 图H 65.4 565 4990 7050 85.9 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/04/30 TA基差 产销 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 2025/0 4/23 66.1 589 750 4340 6265 104.34 161.0 182 -11 86.0 78.9 124544 10 0.70 2025/0 4/24 66.6 582 744 4350 6280 94.19 162.0 225 -3 86.0 78.9 122028 15 0.60 2025/0 4/25 66.9 582 752 4415 6265 91.59 170.0 247 -63 86.2 78.9 111956 20 0.75 2025/0 4/28 65.9 578 758 4585 6395 95.25 180.0 383 -86 86.2 78.9 109868 80 0.60 2025/0 4/29 64.3 572 756 4540 6420 101.35 184.0 358 -24 86 ...