Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Unilateral bullish, focus on the positive spread between different contract months, and consider a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [5] - PTA: Unilateral bullish, go long on PX and short on PTA [6] - MEG: Unilateral short - term bullish rebound, exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of PX, PTA, and MEG, considering factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment. It believes that although the fundamentals of these products may face challenges in the future, short - term price trends are still affected by various factors and show a relatively strong performance [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts increased to varying degrees yesterday, with the largest increase of 3.96% in SC. The price spreads of different contract months also changed, with PX5 - 9 and PTA5 - 9 rising, and MEG5 - 9 falling [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent prices increased, while PTA East China price decreased. The spreads between PX and naphtha, and short - fiber processing fees decreased, while PTA processing fees and bottle - chip processing fees increased [2] Market Dynamics - On January 9, during the Asian trading session, crude oil prices strengthened due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in Iran. However, the increase in foreign currency prices was not as strong as that of other commodities [3] - Chinese downstream polyester production slowed down earlier than expected due to poor sales and lower profit margins. The buying interest in PX cargoes arriving in February was still weak, and demand was expected to be weak during the Chinese New Year holiday in February [3] - Outside China, the situation of cargo accumulation was not as severe, with only a small amount of unsold February PX cargoes among some South Korean manufacturers [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Although the fundamentals are expected to weaken in the future, with increasing supply and high processing fees, cost support from oil prices and positive macro - market sentiment keep the short - term trend strong. Consider a positive spread between different contract months and a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA when PTA processing fees rise above 400 yuan/ton [5] - **PTA**: Future supply and demand are expected to be weak, with PTA device operation rate stable and downstream demand decreasing. However, due to the current high polyester operation rate and low PTA inventory, the short - term price trend is still strong. Pay attention to positions for narrowing the processing fee [6] - **MEG**: The current low price is due to the reduced efficiency of the intermediate trading link, which is expected to improve. Although demand will decline, supply pressure will also be relieved, and the price has strong support at 3600 yuan/ton. Exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to remain in a high - level volatile market supported by cost, and it is recommended to hold long spreads. PTA is also in a high - level volatile market driven by cost, and long spreads operation should be maintained. MEG has limited upside space and faces medium - term pressure, and short spreads operation is advised [1][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7260, 5110, 3803, 6514, and 432.2 respectively, with daily changes of - 56, - 34, - 44, - 50, and - 3.9, and daily change rates of - 0.77%, - 0.66%, - 1.14%, - 0.76%, and - 0.89% [2] - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 894 dollars/ton, 5097 yuan/ton, 3678, 530.12 dollars/ton, and 60.98 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 363.88, 361.63, 120.64, 43.68, and - 4.34 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - **PX**: As of January 4, the domestic PX plant operating rate was 90.4%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 80.9% [2] - **PTA**: The PTA load was 78.1%. Dushan Energy's 250 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 120 - million - ton plant restarted at a low load, and Weilian Chemical's 250 - million - ton plant increased its load [3] - **MEG**: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan stopped for catalyst replacement at the end of December 2025, with an expected duration of about 2 weeks. A 615,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Kuwait plans to stop for maintenance on January 9, with an expected maintenance duration of about one month. As of January 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.73% (a 1.58% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 75.86% (a 0.51% decrease from the previous period) [3][4] - **Polyester**: The operating load of large domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn at around 75% (starting from January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 3.28 million tons). As of Sunday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of less than 40% as of 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% as of 3 pm [4] 3.3 Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - **Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 74%, the comprehensive operating rate of looms dropped to 59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of dyeing remained at 69% [5] - **Raw Material Stockpiling**: Terminal factories mainly consumed raw material stocks this week, and raw material purchases were mainly for new orders. The raw material purchase volumes of terminal factories varied widely. Currently, the stockpiles of production factories are concentrated between 1 - 3 weeks, and some with more stockpiles still have 1 - 2 months' worth [5] - **Orders and Prices**: New orders in the weaving sector remained weak, with some foreign trade and spring - summer new orders being slightly followed up. The inventory of grey fabric continued to accumulate. The prices of conventional grey fabric varieties declined locally, and the nominal cash - flow losses of grey fabric widened [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, while that of MEG is 0 [6] 3.5 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: With strong cost support, long spreads should be held. After the US air - strike on Venezuela on January 3, oil prices are expected to rise in the short - term, supporting the valuation of PX. The 1 - million - ton plant of Fujia Dahua restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for its planned start - up in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate is 88%. For domestic PTA plants, the processing fee of the 05 contract on the futures market has risen to over 300 yuan/ton. The 2.5 - million - ton plant of Xin Fengming Phase 1 and the 1.2 - million - ton plant of Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate is expected to remain at around 78% [6] - **PTA**: In a cost - driven market, the bullish pattern is difficult to disprove for now, and long spreads operation should be maintained. The situation of PTA domestic plants is the same as that mentioned for PX. The profits of polyester filament factories have been declining, leading to a decrease in operating enthusiasm, but the current decline in polyester operating rate is not significant. Coupled with the large - scale export of PTA to India in December, the PTA segment is still in a state of continuous inventory reduction [6][7] - **MEG**: Although it is affected by the rising valuation of oil and coal prices in the short - term, its medium - term trend remains weak, and short spreads operation is recommended. The domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level of 73.73%. The 200,000 - ton plant of Guangxi Huayi restarted. Overseas, plants in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons), Kuwait (530,000 tons), and Iran (400,000 tons) are under maintenance. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline marginally in January - February. The operating rate of polyester plants is 90.8%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is decreasing. The polyester load is expected to drop from 89% in January to 84% in February [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Short - fiber: Oscillating [6] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [6] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production capacity pressure of short - fiber is higher than that of bottle chips. Short - fiber's traditional demand growth is gentle and difficult to break through under the current situation, while its export is expected to maintain high growth. The annual supply - demand pattern of short - fiber will change from destocking to stockpiling, and its processing fee repair space is limited, expected to oscillate between 850 - 1300 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip industry will enter a new stage of "slower production and stable demand growth", with gradually easing supply - demand contradictions and a possible slight upward shift of the processing fee center, but the repair space is restricted [2][3][100][101]. - From a strategic perspective, pay attention to the inter - monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities before the new short - fiber production capacity is put into operation, the inter - monthly positive arbitrage opportunities during the peak demand season of bottle chips, and the phased opportunity of going long on PR and shorting on PF [4][102]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Short - fiber/Bottle - chip Trend Review - In 2025, the absolute prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the polyester raw materials and trended weakly, with the price center lower than that in 2024. The short - fiber processing fee remained strong throughout the year, while the bottle - chip processing fee center declined under pressure [14]. - In Q1, the spot and futures prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. Short - fiber factories coordinated production cuts to support prices, and bottle - chip factories reduced production to relieve inventory pressure, resulting in a slight repair of the processing fee [14]. - In Q2, the US trade policy adjustment caused pulse - like fluctuations in the polyester industry chain prices. After that, the industrial logic dominated. Short - fiber processing fees weakened, and bottle - chip processing fees quickly weakened and fluctuated near historical lows [15]. - In H2, the absolute prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the cost to decline weakly. Short - fiber inventory continued to be destocked and the processing fee remained firm, while bottle - chip industry leaders jointly reduced production, and the processing fee repaired moderately [15]. 3.2 Short - fiber: New Production Capacity Pressure Resurfaces, and Processing Fee Repair May Be Hindered 3.2.1 Supply Side: New Production Capacity to Be Put into Operation, Supply Pressure Low in the First Half and High in the Second Half - In 2025, the new short - fiber production capacity was 390,000 tons/year, with a year - on - year growth of 4.1%. The short - fiber output increased rapidly through the continuous load - increase of existing capacity, with an annual output of about 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. By the end of the year, the industry load reached 97.5% [21]. - In 2026 and 2027, there are plans to put into operation 800,000 tons/year and 1 million tons/year of new short - fiber production capacity respectively, with growth rates of 8% and 9.3%. In 2026, the supply pressure may be low in the first half and high in the second half [29][31]. 3.2.2 Demand Side: Traditional Demand Grows Steadily, and Short - fiber Export Volume Is Expected to Remain High - In 2025, short - fiber exports accounted for 18.7% of the total output and digested about 41% of the new production. Spinning is still the most important application area in traditional downstream demand [32]. - **Traditional downstream demand**: The growth rate of traditional downstream demand has slowed down, and the price - bearing capacity is weak. The total production of cloth and yarn has remained stable in recent years. The downstream enterprises are in a difficult cash - flow situation and are cautious about replenishing raw materials, which squeezes the short - fiber profit space [35][36]. - **Short - fiber export**: In the first 10 months of 2025, the short - fiber export volume increased by 29.6% year - on - year. The overseas short - fiber production capacity gap is large, and the anti - dumping impact of some countries is limited. Export may be the most important way to digest new short - fiber production in 2026 [39][42]. 3.2.3 Supply - Demand Pattern Changes from Destocking to Stockpiling, Pay Attention to Industrial Coordination and Regulation - Assuming a 20% growth rate of short - fiber exports and a 5% growth rate of domestic demand in 2026, the short - fiber production is expected to grow by 6.88%, and the supply - demand pattern will change from destocking to stockpiling, with a cumulative stock of 100,000 tons throughout the year [44]. - The upward space for short - fiber processing fees in 2026 is limited. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 850 - 1300 yuan/ton, with a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half. The coordination willingness of leading enterprises will support the bottom of processing fees [47]. 3.3 Bottle Chips: Supply - Demand Contradictions Tend to Ease, and the Processing Fee Center May Move Slightly Upward 3.3.1 Supply Side: New Production Capacity Pressure Eases, and Industry Operation Rate May Be Revised Upward - In 2025, the new domestic bottle - chip production capacity was 1.55 million tons/year, and the capacity base at the end of the year was expected to be 21.47 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The output from January to November was about 16.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% [50][51]. - In 2026, the new bottle - chip production capacity cycle is basically ending, with only 700,000 tons/year of new production capacity planned to be put into operation, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 3.3%. The low processing fee restricts the actual supply, and the industry operation rate has great upward elasticity [56][58]. 3.3.2 Demand Side: Few Bright Spots, and the Overall Growth Rate May Slow Down - **Domestic demand**: In 2025, the domestic demand for bottle chips was expected to reach 9.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In 2026, domestic demand is expected to grow moderately, with limited demand pull from the soft - drink industry due to factors such as high base and lightweight packaging [63][66][67]. - **Export**: In the first 11 months of 2025, bottle - chip exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year. In 2026, bottle - chip exports are expected to have incremental space due to the expanding overseas supply - demand gap and the limited impact of trade frictions on the total export volume [79][82][90]. 3.3.3 Limited Supply - Demand Contradictions, Pay Attention to the Operation of Existing Devices - When the bottle - chip production growth rate is around 7.2%, the annual supply - demand difference in 2026 may be basically the same as that in 2025. The industry operation rate has an upward space of 3% - 4%. However, once the industry profit recovers, the supply elasticity will increase significantly [96]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Fundamental analysis**: Short - fiber's traditional demand growth is gentle, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, and the supply - demand pattern will change from destocking to stockpiling. The processing fee repair space is limited, and the absolute price will oscillate with the raw materials. The bottle - chip industry will enter a new stage of "slower production and stable demand growth", with gradually easing supply - demand contradictions and limited processing fee repair space [100][101]. - **Strategy analysis**: In 2026, pay attention to the inter - monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities before the new short - fiber production capacity is put into operation, the inter - monthly positive arbitrage opportunities during the peak demand season of bottle chips, and the phased opportunity of going long on PR and shorting on PF [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is in an overall oscillatory pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela continue to disturb the crude oil market. Although China's crude oil imports are at a record high and there are expectations of improved demand, the supply - surplus pattern in the crude oil market still exerts downward pressure. Most chemical products are in a state of oscillation due to factors like high inventory of liquid chemicals and the weak - reality and strong - expectation situation in some regions [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - The chemical industry as a whole is oscillating. The inventory of most liquid chemicals increased on Monday, especially pure benzene. The 05 main contract is far from the delivery time, and the weak spot supply - demand situation has limited immediate negative impact on the futures price. High crude oil imports in China and good refined oil profits may lead to high refinery operation before and after the Spring Festival, which is a concern for the chemical industry [2]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disturb, and oil prices continue to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The postponed EIA data shows inventory accumulation in US crude oil and refined products. Although the global crude oil inventory pressure has weakened in the past two weeks, the subsequent inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Geopolitical factors are the core of supply expectations, but there is a lack of marginal drivers for both long and short positions. - **Outlook**: There is still significant downward pressure in the next quarter under the supply - surplus situation, but short - term geopolitical disturbances make the decline unsmooth, so it is regarded as oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices rise following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + increased production in December, and the expectation of raw material supply interruption drives the rise. However, the supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and the high - valuation is being adjusted. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [8]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Although there are expectations of heavy - oil shortage, the demand outlook is suppressed by high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the substitution of fuel - oil power generation by other energy sources. In addition, the refinery processing demand is weak in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [8]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It has a supply - increase and demand - decline trend, but the current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil. - **Outlook**: It follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The monthly spread weakens ahead of the price, and the short - term price adjusts downward. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are consolidating, and some long - position funds take profits before the holiday. There are also expectations of increased supply due to the expansion of PX production benefits. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to adjust downward. Pay attention to the support around 7000 - 7100 [11]. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: It follows the cost to adjust downward in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX adjusts downward, and although the supply - demand pattern changes little, the supply pressure will gradually return with the restart of some devices. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to adjust and oscillate, and the processing fee runs within a range [11]. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality still suppresses, and the market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price is slightly supported by downstream export orders and high overseas prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase. The far - month contract has the expectation of supply - demand improvement. - **Outlook**: The inventory - accumulation pressure is being realized, and the trading is mainly based on reality [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Short - term sentiment dominates the market, and attention is paid to the sustainability of export transactions. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is weak, but there are positive factors such as export expectations and the impact of device maintenance. However, there is a possibility of negative feedback from downstream devices. - **Outlook**: It is about to turn to inventory accumulation, and the export transactions stimulate the rebound periodically [16]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually realized, and the driving force is general. - **Main Logic**: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation, with continuous inventory accumulation and slow reduction in domestic supply. Overseas imports are expected to decrease in February, and domestic supply will be alleviated in March. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [18]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The adjustment range is limited, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost adjusts downward, but the adjustment range of short - fiber is limited. Due to the off - season, the sales are average. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to adjust, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term [20]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It follows the upstream cost to adjust downward. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures decline, and the price of bottle chips follows. The trading atmosphere is weak, and the fundamentals are slightly weak. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw material, and the processing fee is under some pressure [21]. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality in coastal areas contrasts with the strong expectation, and inland areas offer discounts before the festival. Methanol is generally regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: There is a significant difference between coastal and inland areas. Inland prices decline due to pre - holiday sales pressure, while coastal areas have the expectation of reduced imports. - **Outlook**: The trading logic in coastal areas dominates in the short term, and it is regarded as oscillatory [23]. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: There is no new positive news, and urea is weakly consolidating. - **Main Logic**: The daily production is high, and there is no new positive news in demand, especially in exports. The market is in a stalemate. - **Outlook**: There is supply pressure in the long term and no new positive news in demand. It may decline slightly [24]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival, and LLDPE is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and LLDPE's own fundamentals have some support, but the demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The basis support is limited, and PP is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, the oil price oscillates, and the demand is in the off - season with high inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the expectation of PDH maintenance, PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance has a boosting effect, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment weakens, and PVC declines. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors have a certain impact, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the high - inventory pressure still exists. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment fades, and PVC may oscillate [28]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda is in an oscillatory state. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors affect the market, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment affects the market, and it may oscillate due to low valuation [30]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.42 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 66 with a change of - 24 [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse - receipt data, such as asphalt's basis being - 88 with a change of - 13 and a warehouse receipt of 20840 [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 233 with a change of - 21 [35]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only mentions the names of various varieties for basis and spread monitoring but does not provide specific data and analysis. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities is 2339.89, down 0.59%; the 20 - commodity index is 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial - product index is 2258.87, down 0.70% [279]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 29, 2025, is 1088.67, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a 5 - day decline of 0.99%, a 1 - month decline of 4.21%, and a year - to - date decline of 11.34% [281].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads are declining, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes, PTA units maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Korean manufacturers plan to cut STDP operation and shut down relevant units in the second half of December due to the widened PX - mixed xylene spread. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises' economic benefits improve. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, increasing PTA consumption and market inventory intention, and strengthening the basis. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low inventories and low willingness to cut production, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification may drive export growth [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - PTA spot price increased from 5015 to 5050, MEG inner - market price rose from 3573 to 3653, and PTA closing price went up from 5094 to 5152. The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6550 to 6575. Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets rose, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton. Cotton 328 price increased from 14910 to 15000 [2] Market Transaction - In the short - fiber market, downstream purchasing is cautious, and the market is mainly bought by futures - spot traders with scarce transactions. In the bottle - chip market, the trading atmosphere is cautious, and downstream terminals are on the sidelines [2] Industry Operation Indicators - The direct - spun short - fiber load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, and the polyester short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 80.00% to 56.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged [2][3] Profit and Cost - The polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 527 to 469, the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3800 to 3775, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1321 to 1271. The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber decreased from 465 to 408 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a non-ferrous metal smelting enterprise, indicates that its raw material pricing follows the industry standard of "product market price minus processing fees," which means that fluctuations in metal prices directly impact profitability [1] Group 1 - The company's profit levels are positively influenced by rising prices of metals such as gold, silver, and copper [1] - Conversely, declines in the prices of these metals can adversely affect the company's profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent slight rebound in zinc prices is attributed to the interplay between U.S. inflation data and market sentiment, while poor domestic physical trading further constrains the market, indicating that short-term zinc prices will primarily experience high-level fluctuations and adjustments [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed volatility today, with the main contract (2602) opening at 22,985 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 23,090 CNY/ton, and closing at 23,075 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY, or 0.17% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract was 88,361 lots, an increase of 2,041 lots, while the open interest rose by 2,640 lots to 86,365 [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,072.5 USD, an increase of 14.5 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported between 23,110-23,210 CNY/ton, with an average of 23,160 CNY, up 40 CNY; 1 zinc was between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton, averaging 23,080 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 22,770-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,920 CNY, also up 50 CNY, while 1 zinc was between 22,700-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,850 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - The current spot zinc market quotes 0 zinc between 23,100-23,210 CNY/ton and 1 zinc between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton [1]. Group 3: Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations and down from 3.0% in September, indicating a potential underestimation of actual inflation levels [2]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing increased maintenance, while downstream consumption shows resilience, leading to a continuous decline in social inventory [2]. - The import volume of zinc ore has decreased due to unfavorable price differentials, resulting in expanded losses for Chinese imports of zinc concentrate [2]. - Domestic smelters are beginning winter raw material reserves, favoring domestic zinc concentrate procurement, but competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and reduced profits [2]. - The demand side is weakening, particularly in the real estate sector, with only the automotive sector showing some support due to policy backing [2].

Group 1: Zinc Market Overview - Today's Shanghai zinc futures showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract opening at 23,005 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 23,020 CNY/ton, and a low of 22,835 CNY/ton, closing at 22,970 CNY/ton, down 170 CNY, a decrease of 0.73% [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2601 contract was 120,568 lots, a decrease of 17,972 lots, while the open interest fell by 13,967 lots to 59,226 lots [1] - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,057 USD, an increase of 22 USD [1] Group 2: Domestic Zinc Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive price for 0 zinc was reported at 22,970-23,070 CNY/ton, with an average of 23,020 CNY, down 170 CNY; 1 zinc was priced at 22,880-22,980 CNY/ton, averaging 22,930 CNY, also down 170 CNY [1] - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 22,610 to 22,910 CNY/ton, averaging 22,760 CNY, and 1 zinc was priced at 22,540-22,840 CNY/ton, averaging 22,690 CNY, both down 170 CNY [1] - The current spot zinc market quotes 0 zinc between 22,960-23,070 CNY/ton and 1 zinc between 22,890-22,980 CNY/ton, with the 0 zinc premium at 30-140 CNY/ton and 1 zinc at a discount of 40-50 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons from October, with northern mines entering a seasonal reduction phase [3] - The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate have rapidly declined, with domestic processing fees dropping to 1,600 CNY/metal ton and imported processing fees falling to 50.56 USD/dry ton [3] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has been continuously decreasing, with a weekly decline of 12.34%, reaching the lowest level in three and a half months [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with downstream demand weak and trading activity subdued, despite traders' efforts to maintain prices [4] - The continuous decline in processing fees and expanding losses for smelters are expected to slow down the adjustment pace and space for zinc prices [4] - Short-term attention should be given to the support level at the 20-day moving average [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, improving short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectations [3] - The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses, and the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85% [3] - Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high, but caution is needed due to potential over - bought conditions and regulatory risks [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601) and methanol (MA2605) are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term; coking coal (JM2605) is expected to rebound from the bottom; palm oil (P2605) is recommended to be shorted on rallies; platinum and lithium (PT2606/PD) are recommended to be bought on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounded led by pro - cyclical stocks, but the market lacks upward momentum and has limited downside space. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and for trading, fast entry and exit with timely profit - taking are advised. For the 10 - year variety, the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85%, and attention should be paid to the support level of T2603 around 107.6 - 107.8. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and seeing, and for the futures - spot strategy, attention can be paid to the positive spread of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high. Unilateral long positions can be held, but caution is needed when chasing highs and timely profit - taking is recommended. For platinum and lithium, it is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies or lock positions [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract oscillated narrowly, and short - term oscillation is expected [3] Commodity Sector - **Steel**: Steel prices maintained an oscillating range. In May, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to trade in the ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively [3] - **Iron Ore**: With a decline in hot - metal production and an increase in port inventory, iron ore oscillated and rebounded, and it is recommended to view it as oscillating upward, with a reference range of 730 - 800 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coal in the production area continued to decline, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. The futures price rebounded from an oversold level, and it is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December was implemented, and the port trading price led the decline. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1450 - 1600 [3] - **Copper**: The inventory in three locations increased, and spot trading was average. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: The price oscillated at the bottom, and short - term volatility may increase. Short - term traders can lightly build long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: After the interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21700 - 22400, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price oscillated following the aluminum price, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum narrowed slightly. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20700 - 21400, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and shorting AL03 can be considered [3] - **Zinc**: The center of the zinc price declined, and spot trading improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse spread [3] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and the tin price oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions and buy on dips on pullbacks [3] - **Nickel**: The expected quota in Indonesia decreased, and the price repaired from a low level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 112000 - 116000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted slightly upward, and the supply - demand imbalance had limited driving force. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12200 - 12800 [3] - **New Energy**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The expectation of production cuts increased, and the futures price rose and then fell. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to rise to a new high, and it is recommended to wait and see with a bullish - oscillating view [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment was stimulated by news, and the price rose sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions appropriately [3] - **Chemical Industry**: - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and there is support at low levels. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, with limited driving force. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips; a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 at low levels can be considered [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to narrow the processing fee on rallies [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The decline in bottle - chip inventory supports the processing fee, and attention should be paid to the progress of device restart and production. It is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies; the main - contract processing fee is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] - **Ethanol**: Domestic supply is gradually shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand expectation is still weak. It is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support level around 6400 [3] - **LLDPE**: The North China region maintained a risk - free basis, and trading weakened. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price remained stable, and the basis weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol**: Both the spot price and the basis strengthened, and trading improved. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread for the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to take a bearish view [3] - **PVC**: A foreign device was permanently shut down, triggering a sharp rebound in the futures price. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound [3] - **Soda Ash**: Production is at a high level, with prominent over - supply, and there is no continuous driving force for a rebound. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [3] - **Glass**: The spot price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, with no upward positive driving force. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions [3] - **Natural Rubber**: There is a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the rubber price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost side is strong, and BR continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of BR2602 around 11200 [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have narrow - range adjustments; the pig market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and it is in a bottom - grinding phase; corn is in a narrow - range oscillation; vegetable oils rebounded in the short - term due to US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, and the P main contract may test the support level of 8200 - 8300 in the short - term; sugar is expected to oscillate weakly; cotton's upward trend slowed down and faces hedging pressure, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100; egg prices are mostly stable, with a slight decline in inventory in the circulation link, and are expected to oscillate weakly; apple's stocking is less than expected, and it is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically; jujube's new - year supply decreased slightly, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [3]