Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, particularly addressing the issue of "anti-involution" and the need for policy changes to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [1][3][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - The Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasizes the need to govern low-price disorderly competition, indicating potential policy changes aimed at improving product quality and promoting the exit of outdated capacity [1][3]. - Historical cases show that industry self-discipline (e.g., in the potassium fertilizer and dye industries) and capacity clearance (e.g., in TMA and soda ash industries) are effective ways to combat market involution, significantly boosting product prices and related company stock prices [1][4][5]. - Environmental and energy consumption policies have a significant impact on chemical production, with examples such as the refrigerant quota system leading to substantial price increases for R32 and R134A, benefiting related listed companies [1][6]. - The chromium salt industry has seen a reduction in the number of companies due to environmental restrictions, leading to increased industry concentration and rising profit margins for leading companies like Zhenhua [1][7]. - The DMF market has experienced a supply contraction due to major producers halting production, resulting in significant price increases and improved performance for related companies [1][8]. - Glyphosate prices are highly sensitive to supply-side disruptions, with environmental inspections and adverse weather conditions causing significant price fluctuations, impacting the performance of related companies [1][10]. Additional Important Content - The chemical industry is expected to experience a supply-demand resonance by 2026, with anticipated benefits from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts favoring exports, while foreign capital exit and domestic capital expenditure slowdown will lead to supply reductions [2][16]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sub-industries that have been in prolonged downturns and may see supply reductions and quality improvements, such as PVC in the real estate chain and spandex in the textile chain [15][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on industries identified for elimination and restriction by the National Development and Reform Commission, as these are likely to be influenced by policy changes [16]. - The chemical industry is seen as a key area for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, with various policies aimed at promoting green transformation [11][12]. - The report suggests that 2025 will be a foundational year for policy implementation, with 2026 expected to be a year of policy execution, leading to potential capacity exits or reductions that could improve supply-demand relationships [16]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested sub-industries for investment include organic silicon, glyphosate, and industrial silicon, as well as companies like Xingfa Group and Xinfengming [16][17]. - The refrigerant industry is highlighted as a successful case of self-discipline under political constraints, with significant price increases and profit improvements for companies like Juhua and Sanmei [17]. - The report advises early positioning in the market to capitalize on upcoming investment opportunities before prices rise significantly [16].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - New Capacity Rumor of Early Launch, Sharp Decline under Concentrated Short Allocation [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Price range forecast for ethylene glycol (monthly): 4200 - 4600, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 11.30%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.9% [2] - Price range forecast for PX (monthly): 6500 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.41%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 24.8% [2] - Price range forecast for PTA (monthly): 4400 - 5300, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.21%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 17.0% [2] - Price range forecast for bottle chips (monthly): 5800 - 6500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.55%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.4% [2] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with long spot exposure, short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range: 4450 - 4550), buy EG2510P4300 put options and sell EG2510C4400 call options (50% hedging ratio for put options, entry range: 10 - 20; 25 - 40 for call options) [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement standing inventory and intention to purchase based on orders, with short spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range: 4250 - 4350), sell EG2510P4300 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range: 30 - 50) [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Recently, ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers. Affected by the rumor of new device early launch, it became a concentrated short allocation and weakened. Although the pattern remains in a stocking trend, it is expected to have large upward elasticity when bullish drivers appear. Currently, it oscillates in the range of 4250 - 4500, and it is recommended to go long on dips or sell the 10 - contract 4250 put [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - This week's planned arrival is 11.01 tons, relatively small. Next Monday, port inventory is expected to decrease by about 1.5 tons, and spot liquidity is expected to tighten further [5] - Due to the Houthi armed attack on a cruise ship in the northern Red Sea, oil prices rose in the afternoon, but the cost - end support was limited, and EG rebounded slightly and then fell again [5] Group 6: Bearish Factors - There is a market rumor that the new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong will be launched in September. If true, it will run at a low load in September and add an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons in October [6] - The terminal demand of weaving has declined recently, with limited new orders. Coupled with the continuous high temperature in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the loom operation rate has decreased slightly [6] - Due to poor production efficiency and order - receiving situation, bottle chip factories have cancelled their production increase plans, and the polyester operation rate in September is highly restricted [6] Group 7: Price and Spread Data - Various prices and spreads of polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [9][10] Group 8: Processing Fee and Profit Data - Processing fees and profits of products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, POY, DTY, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on dips as the peak season approaches [1] - PP: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation, short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish, but look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [3] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [3] Core Views - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are uncertain, causing price fluctuations. Focus on the break - even point of new U.S. shale oil wells around $60 [1][7]. - LPG: The cost side weakens, and LPG is under short - term pressure. It mainly follows the oil price, and the valuation is neutral [1][13]. - L: As the peak season in September approaches, supply and demand will turn strong. Plan to restart some devices, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Look for long opportunities on dips [1][19]. - PP: The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support. Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks [1][24]. - PVC: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain. Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1][28]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. Short - term PX is expected to be strong. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [1][31]. - PTA: The supply is under pressure due to device maintenance and new capacity release, but the demand shows signs of recovery. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. Look for long opportunities on dips [2][35]. - MEG: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. Cautiously bullish, hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [2][38]. - Methanol: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating. The cost support weakens. Hold short positions at high levels and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2][41]. - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high. Cautiously bearish, hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2][46]. - Asphalt: The oil price has room to decline, the raw material supply is sufficient, and the spot price in Shandong is falling. The supply increases, and the demand decreases. Look for short opportunities with light positions [3]. - Glass: The supply - demand is loose, the enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, but the inventory of traders in Shahe is increasing. The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. Wait and see [3]. - Soda ash: The spot trading in Shahe is average, the price is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short on rallies [3]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On August 29, WTI decreased by 0.91%, Brent decreased by 0.74%, and SC increased by 0.37% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, U.S. crude oil production reached a record high. As of August 29, the number of active U.S. oil rigs increased. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased, and strategic reserves increased [8]. - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on the $60 break - even point of new shale oil wells. For SC, focus on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PG main contract closed at 4366 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4481, and 4610 yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price follows the oil price. As of August 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries decreased. The refinery inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: Lightly short. For PG, focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/day. The spot price of Ningxia Coal in North China was 7190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. As September approaches, the supply and demand will turn strong. Some devices plan to restart, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [19]. - **Strategy**: Look for long opportunities on dips. For L, focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6974 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/day. The spot price of East China drawstring was 6938 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1130 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts were cancelled at a high level, the futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support [24]. - **Strategy**: Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices. For PP, focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/day. The spot price in Changzhou was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting. For V, focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton (+8). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [31]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas devices change little. The demand of PTA is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is high. The macro - environment is expected to be loose [31]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. For PX511, focus on the range of [6840 - 6940] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton (-8). The spot and basis weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [34]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA processing fee is low, and many devices are under maintenance. The demand is improving, and the inventory is slightly reduced but still high. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions cautiously and look for buying opportunities on dips. For TA01, focus on the range of [4770 - 4830] [36]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the MEG spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton (+1). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips. For EG01, focus on the range of [4440 - 4485] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton (-12). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [40]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating, and the cost support weakens [41]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at high levels, sell call options for the 01 contract, and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract. For MA01, focus on the range of [2335 - 2375] [43]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (+10), and the main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton (-7). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [45]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high, and the cost support weakens [46]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily risk management report on the polyester industry dated August 29, 2025 [1][3] - It focuses on ethylene glycol in the polyester industry, analyzing its supply - demand, market trends, and providing trading strategies [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating mentioned in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol has no obvious fundamental drivers currently. In the short - term, commodity sentiment is expected to face a correction during the policy vacuum period. However, due to low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, it is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend, oscillating between 4350 - 4550. Trading strategy is to go long on dips within the range, and for the medium - to - long - term, observe the peak season performance of downstream polyester. Long positions can be combined with selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for covered call operations [5] Group 4: Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4300 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%; for PX it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%; for PTA it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%; for bottle chips it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [4] Group 5: Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, sell 25% of EG2601 futures at 4550 - 4700 to lock in profits; buy EG2510P4400 put options and sell EG2510C4600 call options, with a total hedging ratio of 50%, to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of EG2601 futures at 4350 - 4450 to lock in procurement costs; sell 75% of EG2510P4400 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [4] Group 6: Market Drivers Bullish Factors - South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact ethylene glycol raw material supply and ethylene production costs; planned port arrivals this week are 85,100 tons, and next Monday's port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons, tightening spot liquidity; loom load has been slightly increasing, with some autumn and winter orders starting in September and foreign trade orders recovering, which is expected to boost the load of filaments and staple fibers [8] Bearish Factors - The total supply load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%), with ethylene - based and coal - based production loads increasing. Next week, some plants plan to overhaul while others plan to restart and increase load, and the total load is expected to continue to rise [9] Group 7: Price and Related Data Table - The table shows price data of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. on August 29, 2025, August 28, 2025, and August 22, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are still uncertain, and there is disturbance support for oil prices [1]. - LPG: Valuation is repaired, the cost side is weakening, and it is under short - term pressure [1]. - L: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The seasonal peak season in September is approaching, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [1]. - PP: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [1]. - PVC: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, and the market is in a bearish continuation [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is still high, but it is expected to be bullish in the short term due to various factors [1]. - PTA: Recent device maintenance has increased, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, so it is expected to be bullish [2]. - Methanol: Supply - side pressure continues to increase, demand is weak but expected to stabilize, and the fundamentals are still weak [2]. - Urea: The device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good, and it is cautiously bullish [2]. - Asphalt: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - Glass: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is in a low - level oscillation [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.70%, Brent rising 0.80%, and SC falling 1.09% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical risks are released, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually weakening [6]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The Trans - Mountain Pipeline has been in use since May 2024, with a daily transportation volume of 730,000 barrels in the first half of the year. India's crude oil imports decreased. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, strategic crude reserve increased by 800,000 barrels [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the $60 new - drilling cost support for SC in the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 28, the PG main contract closed at 4,422 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the LPG valuation has been repaired, the main contract basis is normal, and the PDH device operating rate has decreased [12]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: As of August 29, the LPG commodity volume increased, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed, and refinery inventory increased while port inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,402 yuan/ton (down 21 day - on - day), and the North China Ning coal price was 7,230 yuan/ton (down 40 day - on - day) [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The peak season in September is approaching, this week's output has decreased, and next week's output is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as the peak season is approaching. Focus on the range of [7300 - 7450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,020 yuan/ton (down 1 day - on - day), and the East China drawn wire market price was 6,961 yuan/ton (down 33 day - on - day) [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on short - term dips due to the low absolute price. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7100] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4,946 yuan/ton (down 3 day - on - day), and the Changzhou spot price was 4,700 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, this week's operation is expected to decline, and next week's production is expected to increase [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - selling as the market is in a short - term weak oscillation and the further decline space is limited. Focus on the range of [4850 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7,014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6,966 yuan/ton (+8) [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices at home and abroad have slightly increased their load, demand - side PTA device maintenance has increased, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6770 - 6920] for PX511 [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA East China price was 4,865 yuan/ton (+35), and the TA01 closed at 4,868 yuan/ton (+8) [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased recently, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4820] for TA01 [35]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 closed at 4,474 yuan/ton (+1) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, while demand is recovering [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4450 - 4500] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China methanol spot price was 2,320 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2,405 yuan/ton (-20) [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are increasing, supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions from high levels carefully, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities for 01 on dips. Focus on the range of [2365 - 2395] for MA01 [42]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20), and the main contract closed at 1,739 yuan/ton (-25) [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions carefully, and conduct range operations due to the short - term intensified long - short game. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1765] for UR01 [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see due to the low absolute price and intense capital game [3]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the supply is still under pressure [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as it is in a low - level oscillation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, PVC, PP, glass, soda ash, asphalt, methanol [1][23][19][3][39][46] - **Cautiously Bearish**: LPG, methanol, urea [1][2][42] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea [1][27][31][35] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are released, and the risk premium is squeezed out. The supply - side focuses on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [1][6]. - **LPG**: Cost - end weakens again, and short - term pressure exists. The valuation is repaired, and the basis of the main contract is at a normal level. Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [1]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, futures and spot prices fall together. The seasonal peak season in September is approaching, and the supply - demand fundamentals are not prominent. Strategy: Buy on dips as the peak season approaches [1][16]. - **PP**: Futures and spot prices fall together, and the basis strengthens. The short - term disk follows the sector down. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, but the absolute price is low, so there is support at the bottom. Strategy: Buy on short - term dips at low absolute prices [1][21]. - **PVC**: The thermal coal price turns down, market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. The supply - chain inventory accumulation pressure remains in the future. Strategy: It will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and be cautious about short - selling [1][25]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosened, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. The inventory is high but decreasing. Strategy: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options [1][29]. - **PTA**: Recent device maintenance increases, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand side shows signs of recovery. TA processing fees are generally low. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][33]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Domestic devices slightly increase their loads, and overseas devices change little. The inventory is low, and the demand is expected to improve. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][37]. - **Methanol**: Domestic maintenance devices resume production, and overseas devices' loads are at a high level. The demand is weak, and the social inventory accumulates. Strategy: Hold short positions at high levels cautiously, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels for 01 [2][40]. - **Urea**: This week, device maintenance is expected to increase, and the device operating load will decline in the short term. Domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are relatively good. Strategy: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options as short - term long - short competition intensifies [2][44]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price has room for compression, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply increases while demand decreases, and the valuation is high. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [3]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. Supply is under pressure, and demand support is insufficient. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level, and mainly wait and see [3]. - **Soda ash**: The trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and the high - level warehouse receipts are cancelled. The supply - demand pattern is weak. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level due to the divergence between macro and reality, and mainly wait and see [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.42%, Brent rising 1.11%, and SC falling 2.27% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical risks are released, the peak season is ending, US crude oil inventory accumulation decreases, and OPEC + production increase exerts pressure on the oil price. The oil price still has room for compression and may be pressured to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: The Trans - Mountain Pipeline has been in use since May 2024, and Mexico's crude oil exports increased in July. Demand: India's crude oil imports decreased in July. Inventory: As of August 22, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and strategic crude oil reserve increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, supply will be surplus. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Lightly short - sell, and pay attention to the range of [475 - 485] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 27, the PG main contract closed at 4430 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [10]. - **Basic Logic**: LPG valuation is repaired, and the main contract basis is normal. Supply slightly increases, and demand from some downstream industries decreases. Inventory: Refinery inventory decreases, and port inventory increases [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price. Close long positions and lightly short - sell. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7364 yuan/ton (down 38 day - on - day); North China Ningxia coal was at 7270 yuan/ton (down 20 day - on - day) [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the peak season in September is approaching. Device restarts are expected to increase production, and the overall maintenance volume is high. The demand from the shed film peak season is increasing. Strategy: Buy on dips as the peak season approaches, and pay attention to the range of [7300 - 7450] for L [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7021 yuan/ton (down 25 day - on - day); the East China drawn wire market price was 6994 yuan/ton (down 16 day - on - day) [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices fall together, and the basis strengthens. Device restarts and new capacity release increase supply pressure. Peak - season demand starts, and inventory at factories and traders decreases from a high level. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, but the absolute price is low. Strategy: Buy on short - term dips at low absolute prices, and pay attention to the range of [6950 - 7100] for PP [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4949 yuan/ton (down 49 day - on - day); the Changzhou spot price was 4740 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month); warehouse receipts increased by 183 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The thermal coal price turns down, market sentiment weakens, and the 01 contract position reaches a new high. Device maintenance ends, and supply is expected to increase. Exports to India may slow down, and social inventory has been accumulating for 9 weeks. Strategy: It will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and be cautious about short - selling. Pay attention to the range of [4850 - 5000] for V [25]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase their loads, and demand - side PTA device maintenance increases. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosened, and the inventory is high but decreasing. PXN is not low. Domestic chemical "anti - involution" and other factors are favorable. Strategy: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [6890 - 7010] for PX511 [29][30]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA East China price was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton; the TA01 closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton. Spot and basis both strengthened [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance increases, and supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. Demand shows signs of recovery, and the market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. TA inventory decreases slightly. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of [4780 - 4850] for TA01 [33][34]. Ethylene glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton; the EG01 closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase their loads, and overseas devices change little. Import and arrival volumes are low. Demand shows signs of recovery, and inventory is low. Cost - end support exists. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of [4460 - 4500] for EG01 [37][38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China methanol spot price was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton; the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic maintenance devices resume production, and overseas device loads are at a high level. Supply pressure increases, demand is weak, and social inventory accumulates. Cost - end coal has support. Strategy: Hold short positions at high levels cautiously, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels for 01. Pay attention to the range of [2350 - 2390] for MA01 [40][41]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton; the urea main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance is expected to increase this week, and supply will be tight in the short term but still loose in the long term. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. Inventory accumulates, and cost has support. Strategy: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options as short - term long - short competition intensifies. Pay attention to the range of [1740 - 1770] for UR01 [44][45]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price has room for compression, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply increases due to rising operating rates, and demand decreases due to typhoons in the south. The valuation is high. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. Supply is under pressure as new production lines are expected to start, and demand support is insufficient as downstream orders are low. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level, and mainly wait and see [3]. Soda ash - **Market Review**: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - **Basic Logic**: The trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and high - level warehouse receipts are cancelled. The supply is high, and demand is mostly for rigid needs. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level due to the divergence between macro and reality, and mainly wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG (take profit on long positions), L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea [1][2] - **Bullish**: Glass, soda ash [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the pressure of oversupply is increasing, and the oil price trend remains downward. Suggest buying put options and shorting with a light position [1]. - **LPG**: Valuation is restored, downstream开工 rate drops. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, futures and spot prices rise together, and the basis weakens. The peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. Suggest buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The oil price stabilizes and rebounds, and the chemical sector continues the optimistic sentiment. The supply is still under pressure in the future, but the absolute price is low with support at the bottom. Suggest short - term buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, and the cost support improves. Although the inventory is accumulating, the further decline space of the disk is limited. Suggest short - term long positions [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. Short - term PX fluctuates strongly. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. There are opportunities to go long at low levels. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [2]. - **MEG**: Domestic and overseas supply changes are small, demand is expected to improve, inventory is low, and cost support exists. Suggest holding long positions and buying on dips [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Do not chase the rise, and focus on buying 01 contracts on dips and selling put options on 01 contracts [2]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are weak, but there is cost support and export expectations. 01 long positions can be held cautiously, and call options can be sold [2]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price has room to compress, and the asphalt is under pressure above. Suggest shorting with a light position [4]. - **Glass**: The supply is under pressure, demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices stabilized and rebounded. WTI rose 1.79%, Brent rose 1.49%, and SC rose 0.51% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost oil prices in the short term, but in the medium - and long - term, the support from the peak season weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increase rises. The oil price may be pressed to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's oil imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of shale oil new drilling around $60. Buy put options and short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of SC [480 - 500] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 25, the PG main contract closed at 4420 yuan/ton, up 0.64% month - on - month [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds, the valuation is restored, and the main contract basis is at a normal level. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the trend mainly follows the oil price [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4400 - 4500] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan day - on - day [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. The demand side is strengthening, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan day - on - day [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price rebounds, the chemical sector is optimistic, but the supply is under pressure. The demand in the peak season starts, and the inventory at high levels drops. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the bottom is supported [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term buying on dips. Pay attention to the range of PP [7000 - 7200] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan day - on - day [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, the cost support improves. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulates. The further decline space of the disk is limited [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4950 - 5100] [26] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, the demand - side PTA device maintenance increases, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose. The PXN is not low, and short - term PX fluctuates strongly [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6950 - 7050] [31] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side device maintenance increases, the demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand is expected to improve [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4840 - 4920] [35] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase production, overseas devices change little, and the arrival and import are at low levels. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4500 - 4550] [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. The cost is supported by coal [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, focus on buying 01 contracts on dips, and sell put options on 01 contracts. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2390 - 2440] [42] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The cost support exists, and the price fluctuates in a range [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of UR01 [1735 - 1765] [46] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, the supply increases, and the demand decreases. The valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The supply remains high, the demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4]

Report Title - Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - EG's explicit inventory continues to decline, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] Core View - Ethylene glycol's supply and demand have both increased recently, but it is mainly within expectations, and there is no obvious driving force in terms of fundamentals. The short - term sentiment of the chemical industry is expected to remain strong. Although the ethylene glycol market is in a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase expectation has been well - traded, and it is difficult to compress the valuation. With the combination of low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks within the range. In the medium - to - long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4300 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about ethylene glycol price decline | Long | Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs; buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2601, EG2510P4400, EG2510C4600 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50% | 4550 - 4700, 10 - 20, 30 - 70 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops | EG2601, EG2510P4400 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 4350 - 4450, 30 - 50 | [2] 利多解读 1. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity per year, which may impact ethylene glycol's raw material supply and ethylene - based production costs [4] 2. The planned arrival this week is 9.851 million tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, which will further tighten spot liquidity [6] 3. The loom load has continued to increase slightly recently. As the terminal autumn and winter orders start in September and foreign trade orders have recovered, the demand and downstream sentiment have improved marginally, and the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to continue to increase [6] 利空解读 - The supply side of oil and coal has both increased, and the total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Among them, the ethylene - based production load has increased, and the coal - based production load has risen to 81.25% (+0.78%). Next week, some plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the total load is expected to continue to increase [7] Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, as well as spread data between different contracts and processing fee data [10][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints MEG - MEG is expected to maintain an upward - biased and hard - to - fall trend in the short term. Although it is in a pattern of inventory accumulation, the low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply make it likely to rise. Operationally, it is recommended to go long on dips within the range. In the medium - to - long term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling out - of - the - money near - month call options [1][3]. PX - TA - The supply reduction of PX - TA has pushed up the PTA price. In the short term, the unexpected device events cannot change the long - term relatively oversupplied pattern. The processing fee of PTA is expected to be under long - term pressure. Operationally, the processing fee should be shorted on rallies, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread can be moderately shorted on rallies [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory MEG Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Ethylene - based and coal - based loads have different changes. Next week, the total load is expected to continue to increase. The profits of each route of EG have been slightly repaired. The port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The polyester load has increased to 90% (+0.6%). Downstream demand has improved, with both domestic and foreign trade orders starting. The inventory of filament and staple fiber products has decreased. The profits of the polyester segment are under pressure, while the bottle - chip orders are good, and the load is expected to increase in September [2]. Key Data - **Price**: The price of MEG in East China has increased from 4458 yuan/ton to 4512 yuan/ton, and the US dollar price has increased from 524 dollars/ton to 529 dollars/ton [7]. - **Profit**: The profits of MEG from various sources, such as coal - based and external - ethylene, have increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased from 55.3 tons to 54.7 tons [7]. Maintenance Situation - Many ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or restart states, with different expected restart times [12]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - **PX**: The load has increased to 84.6% (+0.3%). The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the supply - demand balance in August and September has turned to a slight surplus. The profits of the PX segment have expanded [5]. - **PTA**: The load has decreased to 71.6% (-4.4%). The social inventory has decreased to 2.2 million tons (-70,000 tons). The processing fee has been repaired, but the market is still relatively loose [5]. Key Data - **Price**: The price of PX in the Chinese main port has increased from 828 dollars/ton to 853.7 dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China has increased from 4659 yuan/ton to 4865 yuan/ton [8]. - **Profit**: The PXN and PX - MX spreads have increased, and the domestic processing fee of PTA has increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of PTA has decreased [8]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX, PTA devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or restart states, with different expected restart times [13][14]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 90% (+0.6%), and the loads of filament, staple fiber, and bottle - chip have all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand has improved, with orders starting, and the inventory of products has decreased [6]. - **Profit**: The profits of most polyester products have been under pressure, but the processing fees of bottle - chips have been repaired [9]. Key Data - **Price**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and other products have increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory days of POY, FDY, DTY, and staple fiber have decreased [9]. Production Plan - The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 4.85 million tons, including filament, bottle - chip, slice, and film products [18].