1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no unilateral positions during the holiday. It is advisable to hold a light - position short position on the L - PP spread as plastic has new production capacity put into operation recently, its operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the centralized demand for mulch film has not started yet [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28%. Petrochemical destocking in February was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. The number of maintenance devices decreased slightly recently. The price of BOPP film in some downstream areas was stable, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry decreased, new orders were limited, and more terminal enterprises stopped work for the Spring Festival holiday, with downstream stocking mostly completed [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6648 yuan/ton, the highest was 6730 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6648 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.73%. The position volume decreased by 7495 lots to 479342 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $830 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventories and the current basis having been repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastics production capacity coming on stream recently, the operating rate being higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased. Petrochemical destocking in February was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years. On the cost side, crude oil prices rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased recently. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started yet, and the operating rates of agricultural and packaging films have decreased, with downstream operating rates expected to continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6787 yuan/ton, up 0.55% and above the 60-day moving average. The持仓 volume decreased by 8697 lots to 503,917 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market partially declined, with price changes ranging from -100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased, with the overall downstream operating rate of PE showing a seasonal decline [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday was flat week-on-week at 460,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Petrochemical destocking was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $695 per ton, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $675 per ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the "involution". With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently, its operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP price difference will decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 11, some overhauled units such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 82.5%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. The production ratio of standard drawn yarn increased to about 30%. Petrochemical inventory reduction in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost side: the US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz as much as possible. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices rebounded. Recently, the number of overhauled units has decreased slightly. The prices of downstream BOPP films in some areas are stable, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry has declined, and its new orders are limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal enterprises are on holiday, and downstream stocking has mostly been completed [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6693 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.51%. The position decreased by 1731 lots to 486,837 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions have partially declined. The drawn yarn is reported at 6310 - 6850 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: on February 11, some overhauled units such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to about 82.5%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level. The production ratio of standard drawn yarn increased to about 30%. - Demand side: as of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. - Petrochemical inventory: on Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory was flat at 460,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week - on - week [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to break the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently, a higher operating rate than PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Analysis** - On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis, showing a seasonal decline. Petrochemical inventory reduction in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost side saw an increase in crude oil prices due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. **Futures and Spot Market Quotes** - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6723 yuan/ton, the highest was 6779 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.24% above the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 5995 lots to 512614 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Part of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. **Fundamental Tracking** - **Supply**: On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis. With the approaching Spring Festival, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decrease, and orders for packaging films also decreased, showing a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PE [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons on a day - on - day basis, 35,000 tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to $69/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695/ton on a week - on - week basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $675/ton on a week - on - week basis [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the close on February 9, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some metals rising significantly and some falling. The prices of various futures varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and seasonal patterns [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 9, platinum rose nearly 11%, silver futures rose over 8%, palladium rose over 7%, tin futures rose over 6%, lithium carbonate and gold futures rose over 3%, caustic soda rose over 2%, and international copper and copper futures rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, styrene (EB) fell over 2%, and log, ferrosilicon, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), manganese silicon, coke, asphalt, and apple fell over 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase. In terms of capital flow, silver 2604, lithium carbonate 2605, and rebar 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and ten - year treasury bonds 2603 had capital outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper Futures - On February 9, copper futures opened high and moved higher. The output in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%. The demand showed an increase in December 2025, but downstream procurement decreased during the holiday. The market is affected by factors such as changes in the Fed's expectations, the proposed improvement of the copper resource reserve system, and the traditional consumption off - season. In the short - term, it will be mainly in a narrow - range shock, and the long - term outlook for copper prices is optimistic [9][10] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. The average price increased slightly. The supply in February will decrease due to maintenance. The export from Chile in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand decreased during the holiday in February, but is expected to increase in March. The inventory is gradually shifting to the downstream. The price has stopped falling and stabilized, but it is difficult to rise sharply in the short - term, and the market is mainly in a consolidation phase [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected due to winter storms, but the global floating storage is high, and the supply is still in an oversupply situation. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asia. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have ended "temporarily", and the Iranian geopolitical risk is uncertain. The US - India trade and the Russia - Ukraine situation also affect the oil market. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate within a range in the near future [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased last week, and the expected output in February will decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it has increased. Some refineries have resumed production, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also decreased. The proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 9, the plastic start - up rate remained stable at a relatively high level. The downstream start - up rate decreased, and the order volume decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate increased slightly, while the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export order volume decreased after the price increase. The social inventory increased, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The PVC is expected to fluctuate within a range due to factors such as policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend. The supply of coking coal has shrunk significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will also be restricted during the Spring Festival. The downstream winter storage is coming to an end, and the inventory is shifting to the downstream. The downstream steel trading volume is poor. The coking coal is expected to be in a weak consolidation state [21][22] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and moved high, showing a strong trend. The order - receiving situation before the Spring Festival is acceptable, and the price is stable. The gas - based devices have basically resumed production, and the production will be normal during the Spring Festival. The agricultural demand is good, and the industrial demand is weakening. The factory inventory is slightly digested. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected that the spot price is unlikely to drop before the festival, and the futures will fluctuate in a narrow range [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The plastics supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, with low upstream petrochemical inventory and a repaired basis. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity coming on - stream recently and the high plastics operating rate compared to PP, along with the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. Petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacity has been put into production in January 2026. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions, with a minimum price of 6712 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6822 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6812 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.16%. The position volume decreased by 19,260 lots to 503,244 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6620 - 7120 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8400 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 8040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 0.5 million tons week - on - week to 42.5 million tons, 8 million tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above 68 US dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 675 US dollars/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. With new capacity coming into production recently, the开工 rate is relatively high compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline. The plastics market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, the crude oil price rebounded. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started, the temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and the demand in the north has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,900 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.81%. The position decreased by 6,547 lots to 522,504 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 65,000 tons to 420,000 tons week - on - week, 105,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat week - on - week at $700/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5/ton to $675/ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. Although the upstream petrochemical inventory is low and the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity production and the high operating rate compared to PP, and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 4th, the addition of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou HDPE led to a decline in the plastics operating rate to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders for agricultural films and raw material inventory decreased slightly, and packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly and is currently at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacities were put into production in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline. The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involute, and the plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,811 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,937 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.64%. The open interest increased by 17,366 lots to 529,051 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 4th, the plastics operating rate dropped to around 91% due to new maintenance devices, and it is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points week - on - week to 37.76%, and it is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 50 tons, 6 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 680 US dollars/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and the spot price followed up limited at the end of January. However, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, the upstream petrochemical inventory is low, the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment of bulk commodities has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the concentrated demand for plastic film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1行情分析 - As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5%. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the US has reduced tariffs on India, and Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving is stable, but its new orders are limited [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1期货方面 - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6727 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6824 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6801 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.15%. The position increased by 11,151 lots to 521,043 lots [2] 3.2.2现货方面 - The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable. The drawstring was reported at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 50 million tons week - on - week, 6 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 825 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week-on-week, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de-stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics in recent days, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. The geopolitical situation cooled down, the cold wave weakened, and the crude oil price dropped significantly. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for mulching film has not started yet, the temperature dropped, the terminal construction slowed down, the demand in the north decreased, the production of greenhouse film in the north basically stopped, the prices of agricultural film remained stable, the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film decreased, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline. The macro sentiment cooled down, and plastics are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term following the market sentiment. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand pattern of plastics will improve limitedly, the spot follow - up is limited, the basis will decline, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The plastic 2605 contract increased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,811 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,937 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.15%. The position increased by 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot markets declined, with a price change range between - 200 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,600 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 3, there were few changes in the overhaul devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE declined by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders of agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The orders of packaging film also decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 95,000 tons to 505,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was de - stocked rapidly, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract dropped to $66/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $680/ton week - on - week [4].