1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures options will be listed on September 10, with the first - day listing of option contracts corresponding to BU2512 and BU2601 [1]. - It is expected that both supply and demand of asphalt will increase. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth but with a lower growth rate compared to Q3. The destocking amplitude in Q4 will increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is estimated to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $63 per barrel. The subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. Different option strategies are proposed for the short - and long - term [4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Contract Design Rules - Contract subject: Petroleum asphalt futures contract (10 tons) - Contract types: Call options and put options - Trading unit: 1 lot of petroleum asphalt futures contract - Quotation unit: Yuan (Renminbi)/ton - Minimum price change: 0.5 yuan/ton - Daily price limit: The same as that of the underlying futures contract - Contract months: The nearest two consecutive - month contracts, and subsequent months will be listed on the second trading day after the open interest of the underlying futures contract reaches a certain value after settlement, with the specific value to be announced by the exchange - Trading hours: 9:00 - 11:30 am, 13:30 - 15:00 pm and other times specified by the exchange - Last trading day: The fifth - last trading day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, which can be adjusted by the exchange according to national legal holidays - Expiration date: The same as the last trading day - Exercise price: It covers the price range corresponding to 1.5 times the daily price limit of the settlement price of the underlying futures contract on the previous trading day. When the exercise price ≤ 2000 yuan/ton, the exercise price interval is 20 yuan/ton; when 2000 yuan/ton < exercise price ≤ 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 50 yuan/ton; when the exercise price > 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 100 yuan/ton - Exercise method: American style. The buyer can submit an exercise application during the trading hours of any trading day before the expiration date, and can submit an exercise or waiver application before 15:30 on the expiration date - Trading codes: Call options: BU - contract month - C - exercise price; Put options: BU - contract month - P - exercise price - Listing exchange: Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] 3.2 Asphalt Market Outlook 3.2.1 Demand - Taking the "Golden September" as a boundary, the cumulative shipments of 54 asphalt sample refineries in August increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the 7% growth bottleneck in June - July. The shipment rhythm in the first week of September slowed down compared to August, but considering the peak road construction season lasting until the mid - late fourth quarter, the impact of the slowdown is expected to be short - term. The demand for road construction is most prosperous from September to October, and the demand in the north will gradually decline in November while the south still has support. Special bonds are expected to have an incremental increase from September to October 2025, and their boost to asphalt demand is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.2.2 Supply - In terms of refinery supply, the significant increase in asphalt cracking spread means that the profit of refining asphalt by independent refineries with crude oil quotas has recovered, and the production profit of asphalt is better than that of other oil products. The supply of asphalt by independent refineries with quotas has increased significantly year - on - year. For example, the average monthly output of Jingbo Hainan's asphalt has been around 200,000 tons since 2025, a significant increase compared to the level of 8,000 tons in most months in 2024. As of the end of July this year, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 45% year - on - year. Independent refineries without crude oil quotas face the problems of high discounts on diluted asphalt and low tax deductions, resulting in serious losses in processing diluted asphalt, and their supply has been suppressed. In terms of major refineries, Sinopec's asphalt supply has been declining year - on - year due to the shift towards deep - processing, and the decline rate has been increasing month by month, offsetting the incremental supply of PetroChina and CNOOC to some extent. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth, but the growth rate will be lower than that in Q3. The low base in Q3 2024 contributed to the high year - on - year growth rate of supply in 2025. The supply in Q3 2025 is expected to increase by 26% year - on - year (+1.6 million tons), but the monthly output of asphalt in Q4 2024 increased, and there is still a certain constraint on the increase rate considering profit and historical supply levels [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The estimated result of the supply - demand balance sheet shows that the destocking amplitude of refineries in Q4 2025 will be lower than that in 2024. Within the year, the destocking amplitude of the asphalt industry chain in Q4 is the strongest, with a significant increase compared to Q3. October and November are the periods with the fastest destocking speed within the year. It is expected to continue destocking in December, but the destocking amplitude will decrease significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. Considering that the inventory of the asphalt industry chain has been at a relatively low level this year, the inventory level at the end of the year is expected to decline year - on - year [10]. 3.3 Option Strategies - Taking the options corresponding to the BU2512 contract as the strategy target, combined with the fundamental forecasts of crude oil and asphalt, the subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. In the short - to - medium term, there are still seasonal supporting factors for the asphalt fundamentals. After the decline of crude oil stabilizes, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be sold according to the volatility. If the futures price weakens again, a spread strategy can be adopted, that is, buying deep out - of - the - money put options for protection. In the long - term, different from the end - of - year tail - up market in 2024 caused by the unexpected destocking during the traditional off - season under the deep production cuts by refineries, the support provided by the fundamentals at the end of this year may be weaker than that in 2024 due to the year - on - year increase in refinery supply. Therefore, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be bought after the high - level decline of crude oil and the weakening of the seasonal support of asphalt fundamentals. For spot enterprises, this can control the depreciation risk caused by price drops while still retaining the opportunity to benefit from the phased upward market [10].

Consumption Trends - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes have increased, reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment, with year-on-year comparisons turning from negative to positive[6] - Tourism and movie attendance have seen a resurgence, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 5.6% month-on-month, indicating strong demand[6] - Textile and apparel sectors are experiencing a seasonal downturn, with sales volumes declining compared to previous weeks[6] Investment Insights - As of August 9, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.84 trillion, with a slowdown in issuance noted in the first week of August[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities have shown a month-on-month decline, with new home sales still in negative growth territory, although the rate of decline has slightly narrowed[17] - Construction progress remains slow, with asphalt construction rates falling and cement shipment rates decreasing year-on-year[17] Trade and Export Dynamics - External demand is weakening, as evidenced by the July Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US dropping to 49.8%, indicating contraction[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, reflecting a broader trend of declining shipping costs[21] Production and Inventory Changes - The steel industry has shown marginal improvements in production rates, with rebar and wire rod output increasing[31] - Overall inventory trends indicate a focus on destocking, particularly in the cement and asphalt sectors, while steel inventories are rising due to increased production[42] Price Movements - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a marginal decline, with most categories experiencing price drops except for seasonal increases in vegetable prices[44] - Producer Price Index (PPI) has also decreased, with industrial prices falling across most categories, particularly in construction materials[44] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 1.7 basis points to 1.69%, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy[48] - The US dollar index has fallen by 42 basis points, contributing to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the dollar, from 7.21 to 7.18[48]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The steel industry is experiencing a phase of "anti-involution," which shows improvement but relies on demand support and self-driven supply-demand turning points [1][3][5] - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with a global supply decrease of over 100,000 tons in the first half of the year, leading to a weak supply-demand balance [10][17] Key Points and Arguments Steel Industry - The steel sector performed well in the first half of 2025 due to self-driven profit points, coking coal concessions, and policy expectations [1][5] - The second half of 2025 is expected to enter a phase of anti-involution execution and production cuts, leading to a new round of profit improvement [5][6] - Current macro conditions are similar to 2021, with a demand downturn and policy speculation, but the market has found a bottom, reducing reliance on policy support [1][6] - The average daily pig iron output has not significantly decreased, indicating that production cuts have not yet been effectively implemented [6] Copper Market - The 232 tariff policy has led to high copper inventories in the U.S., resulting in a proactive destocking cycle and weakening global demand [9] - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,000 and $9,500, with a potential for a new upward cycle in 2026 if major economies experience liquidity easing [11][17] Aluminum Market - Significant increases in aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum inventories, with weekly production nearing peak levels, may lead to price corrections, but prices are unlikely to fall below 20,000 RMB/ton [12] - High-dividend companies in the aluminum sector remain attractive for investment [12][18] Small Metals Market - Cobalt is entering a supply contraction and price increase phase, while rare earth materials are in short supply, leading to expected price increases [15][19] - Lithium carbonate and nickel are at cost support bottoms, requiring attention to supply-side changes for potential recovery [20] Other Important Insights - The current market environment is characterized as a "mid-game pause," with expectations for a turnaround in fundamentals in the second half of the year [5][7] - Investors are advised to focus on asset allocation opportunities, particularly during the economic bottoming process and under significant PPI pressure [7] - The overall sentiment in the gold market is cautious, with prices expected to remain in a range due to macroeconomic conditions [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the steel, copper, aluminum, and small metals markets, along with investment strategies and macroeconomic considerations.

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction in August due to increased maintenance and a potential recovery in downstream demand during the traditional peak season [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell by 2.02%, with the current spot price in East China at 4750 CNY/ton and a basis rate of 0.13% [1]. - As of August 4, the main PTA futures contract closed at 4698.00 CNY/ton, down 1.34%, with a daily trading volume of 505,907 lots [2]. Group 2: Price Information - The price list for PTA on August 4 shows various brands and their market prices, with the highest being 5300 CNY/ton for Yisheng in Hubei Province and the lowest at 4720 CNY/ton for Hengli in Suzhou [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average capacity utilization rate for PTA is 79.67%, a decrease of 1.09% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production at 1.4261 million tons, down by 18,900 tons from the previous week [4]. - As of August 1, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts was 27,731, a decrease of 2,007 from the previous trading day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that with more PTA facilities entering maintenance in August, the oversupply situation will ease, and if maintenance plans are realized along with a recovery in terminal demand, the PTA market may achieve inventory reduction and a slight price increase [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a significant decline, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6912.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of 2.44% during the trading session [1] - The price of PX fluctuated between a high of 6914.0 CNY and a low of 6804.0 CNY, indicating a weak market performance [1] - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals remain stable with upstream and downstream operations steady, while terminal operations show signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures highlighted that the PX market remains tight, but external price declines and reduced PTA processing fees could lead to negative feedback risks for downstream operations [1] - The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a six-month low of around 150, prompting some large facilities to reduce their operating rates [1] - Wukuang Futures indicated that while PX load remains high, the end of the PTA maintenance season and recovering polyester operations suggest limited short-term negative pressure on PX [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of USD 3.14 billion for H1 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [1]. - Normalized EBITDA for the same period was USD 980 million, reflecting a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year [1]. - The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 470 million, down 14.1% compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was USD 1.68 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [1]. - The report highlights ongoing inventory reduction and pragmatic adjustments in operations [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at USD 6.246 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -9.0% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024A is estimated at USD 726 million, reflecting a decline of 14.8% year-on-year [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024A is expected to be USD 0.05, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 [2]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 109.4 billion [3]. Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia Pacific West region, revenue declined by 2.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while normalized EBITDA showed a slight increase of 1.4% [6]. - The Asia Pacific East region experienced a revenue drop of 8.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily due to a high base effect and preemptive price increases [6]. - The report anticipates continued adjustments in Q3, with a potential return to stable growth in Q4 due to low base effects [6]. Future Outlook - The report projects a recovery in growth rates for Q4 2025, driven by ongoing adjustments and inventory management strategies [6]. - The normalized net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are USD 762 million, USD 823 million, and USD 871 million respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 17, and 16 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, and basis weakens. TA will remain in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak. The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - For styrene, the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, and the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of PTA inner - market spot changed from 4775 to 4800, and the PTA processing difference changed from - 207 to - 46. The basis of daily average transaction is 2509(-8) [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee decreases again. PX domestic start - up decreases slightly, overseas load is stable, and PXN strengthens [3]. - **Outlook**: TA remains in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the MEG outer - market price changed from 525 to 528, and the MEG coal - to - profit changed from 687 to 684. The basis is around 09(+52) [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Downstream stocking levels rise, basis remains the same, and the benefit - comparison further expands [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber changed from 6640 to 6675, and the short - fiber profit changed from 37 to 47 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak, with stable start - up of polyester yarn, slightly increased raw - material stocking, and accumulated finished - product inventory [3]. - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. There is no obvious upward driver, and attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot changed from 1800 to 1800, and the price of Shanghai full - latex changed from 14660 to 14665 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [3]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of styrene (CFR China) changed from 920 to 908, and the domestic profit of styrene was 24 on July 25 and 28. The profit of EPS increased from 150 to 285 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials and downstream products have certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, while the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the polysilicon and industrial silicon markets, highlighting the supply-side constraints and price fluctuations impacting the industry [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Polysilicon Price Increase**: Polysilicon prices have risen to 45,000 CNY per ton, with some companies facing costs as high as 49,000 CNY per ton. However, the price increase has not effectively transmitted to the downstream battery and module segments, leading to losses in those areas. The silicon wafer price needs to rise to approximately 2 CNY per piece to achieve profitability [1][3]. - **Inventory and Demand Dynamics**: The silicon wafer price increase has resulted in good transaction volumes, with expectations of inventory reduction in the coming week. However, the battery and module inventories remain high due to insufficient transaction volumes. The production adjustments in July and August, along with the low inventory levels from the first half of the year, indicate potential recovery in downstream investment demand, contingent on order volumes and production capacity [1][5]. - **Impact of New Policies on Distributed and Centralized Solar**: Distributed solar power has seen about 40% of demand stagnate due to new policies. Centralized solar relies on large projects, with expectations that the fourth quarter may see better performance than the first half. However, the 531 policy may have already exhausted some of the anticipated demand. The forecast for installed capacity this year has been adjusted to a target of 300 GW, with a pessimistic outlook of 255 GW [1][6]. - **Installed Capacity Requirements**: To avoid inventory pressure in the second half of the year, the domestic installed capacity must reach at least 300 GW. The actual installed capacity in the first half of the year has shown some inventory reduction, primarily in downstream raw materials and end products. If strict price controls are enforced without production increases, annual production may drop below 1.2 million tons, leading to a more favorable balance sheet [1][7]. - **Current Inventory Situation**: The polysilicon market has seen a reduction in inventory, but a shift to proactive inventory replenishment requires support from terminal demand, which hinges on achieving at least 300 GW of installed capacity. If this demand continues into the fourth quarter, both price controls and production limits will be necessary to support price increases [1][8]. - **Industrial Silicon Market Performance**: The industrial silicon market has seen price strength, but unlike polysilicon, it lacks significant supply-demand narratives. Current trading focuses on production and cost, with leading companies not resuming production despite profitability. The market is influenced by coal price rebounds, but oversupply limits the potential for significant inventory reductions [3][9]. - **Future Price Trends**: The polysilicon market is expected to exhibit a near-term strength but long-term supply pressures. Industrial silicon has a limited window for bullish trading, with short-term rebounds possible due to profitability in certain regions. However, the fundamental outlook suggests a downward trend, particularly influenced by production resumption in key areas [1][11]. Other Important Insights - **Investment Sentiment**: The investment sentiment in distributed solar remains low due to policy impacts, while centralized solar projects are expected to perform better in the fourth quarter, although overall installed capacity expectations have been tempered [1][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The interplay between price controls and production limits will be crucial in determining the market's ability to sustain price increases and manage inventory effectively [1][8].

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V-shaped trend. The ADP and non-farm payroll data diverged, causing the overall interest rate cut expectation to fluctuate. Trump's "Great Beauty" Act was implemented, and short-term broad fiscal policies may have a certain stimulating effect [1]. - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start-up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline during the off-season from July to August, and overall copper consumption by downstream industries has been somewhat suppressed [1]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened this week, weakening the substitution effect. It is expected that there will be a moderate inventory increase from July to August [1]. - With the S232 investigation pending, there is still strong support below the copper price. A significant drop would require a macro black swan event, which is currently unlikely. During the off-season in the third quarter, the copper price is expected to have some adjustment room due to inventory accumulation and the decline in the refined-scrap substitution effect [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1]. - In terms of inventory, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short-term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low-inventory situation, attention should be paid to inter-month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [1]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and the imported TC increased slightly. Some smelters are undergoing maintenance in July, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - On the demand side, domestic demand has weakened seasonally. The spot premium in North China has turned to a discount, and those in East and South China have basically leveled off. Overseas, demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face certain production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4]. - Domestically, social inventory has increased oscillatingly. Due to more factory pick-ups at the current price, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slightly slower than expected. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased oscillatingly since May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4]. - The strategy remains to short zinc and sell on rallies. The long domestic and short foreign arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. Group 4: Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year-on-year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of demand for scrap batteries. Although the low profit has improved this week, the operating rate remains low. The willingness of recyclers to sell at a high price has weakened [7]. - From April to June, the operation rate of concentrate mines increased, but the supply of domestic and foreign concentrates has tightened, and the TC is in a mess [7]. - On the demand side, battery inventory is high. This week, the battery operating rate rebounded, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The refined-scrap spread is -50, the willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has increased, but the reception is poor. There is speculation about cancelled LME warehouse receipts [7]. - From April to July, overall consumption during the off-season is weak, and orders only meet the rigid demand. This week's price increase is due to speculation about the improvement in battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts, but in reality, downstream buyers only replenish their inventories for rigid demand at high prices [7]. - The profit of recycled lead has improved, but the operating rate has not increased. The willingness of scrap battery owners to sell at a high price is strong, and the price support behavior is weaker than in the previous upward cycle. The willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has improved, but the reception is poor. The refined-scrap spread is -50, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 40, mainly maintaining long-term orders [7]. - It is expected that lead will oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week. If the macro situation affects the lead price to remain above 17,200, it may trigger the risk of a price support cycle. In July, primary lead supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is weak [7]. Group 5: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the short-term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, still needs negotiation. The processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province, China, have reduced production, and those in Yunnan Province are still struggling to maintain production. In June, the output of tin ingots decreased by more than 1 kt month-on-month [9]. - Overseas, except for Wa State, supply disruptions have basically subsided. The import volume from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May exceeded expectations, mainly due to traders' inventories [9]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rates of the terminal electronics and photovoltaic industries are expected to decline significantly. Domestic inventory has increased oscillatingly. Overseas consumption rush continues, but the LME inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [9]. - On the spot side, the supply of small-brand tin ingots remains tight. Most of the exchange inventory is high-priced Yunzi-brand tin ingots, and downstream buyers have no strong willingness to pick them up [9]. - In the short term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline. It is expected that supply and demand will remain weak in the first half of the year. June and July may be the key stages to verify whether the tightness of tin ore will be transmitted to the tightness of tin ingots, and the bottom has strong support [9]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after the maintenance period [9]. Group 6: Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to reduce production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the significant production reduction of leading enterprises, the production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous expectation of a significant increase, and the supply-demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [13]. - If Hesheng continues to maintain the production reduction, the spot price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Previously, against the background of the futures price hitting a new low, the basis strengthened rapidly, stimulating the long-suppressed speculative and replenishment sentiments of downstream industries. The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts and non-standard products has been significant, and the spot price has been strong. The unexpected production reduction of leading enterprises has a significant marginal impact on the supply-demand balance, and there is a resumption of production in the downstream polysilicon industry [13]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased due to the promotion of the "anti-involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 contract price. The price difference between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream buyers settle at a later point in time, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [13]. - The high price has stimulated the resumption of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes continue to increase production. However, some factories have maintenance plans, and the hedging profit of externally purchased projects is abundant and production is ongoing [13]. - Downstream buyers are highly cautious and only maintain a safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver goods to the warehouse has improved, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased [13]. - In the medium and long term, there are many expansion projects for ore and lithium salt production capacities. If the operating rates of leading mining and smelting integrated enterprises do not decrease significantly, the lithium carbonate price will still fluctuate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and the reduction in new energy vehicle consumer loans has not improved demand as expected [13]. - The lithium ore price has rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious and replenish their inventories only for rigid demand. At the current price rebound, the profit of externally purchased smelters has improved, and they have resumed production. The profit of self-owned mines has increased, and the market clearance pace may be delayed [13]. - In the future, the supply elasticity is high. Large factories in Sichuan and previously maintained and technically improved enterprises are resuming production. Attention should be paid to the resumption time of the Jiuxiaowo project of CATL. Demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply will continue to exceed demand next week, leading to inventory accumulation, which will put upward pressure on the price. The fundamental oversupply situation has not been significantly reversed. However, the "anti-involution" competition policy may boost sentiment, and risks need to be guarded against [13]. Group 8: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [15]. - On the inventory side, overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, while domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been abolished, concerns about supply disruptions in the ore market have eased. The short-term real fundamentals are average, and opportunities for narrowing the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [15]. Group 9: Stainless Steel - From the supply side, some steel mills have been forced to reduce production since late May. On the demand side, demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [17]. - In terms of inventory, inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been de-stocked. The overall fundamentals remain weak. After the demand fades, the pressure on the spot market increases, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Bullish [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating [9][10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating Bullish [11][12][13] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [17] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [18][20] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [21] - **Pulp**: Oscillating Bearish [22] - **Logs**: Oscillating Bearish [23][24] 2. Core Views of the Report - The improvement in the macro - level drives the rebound of agricultural products. Different agricultural products show various trends due to factors such as policy, supply - demand, and macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs (1)行情观点 - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate upward. The US Senate's passing of the fiscal spending bill including the 45Z tax credit and Brazil's plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio are positive factors. However, factors like OPEC +'s August production policy, trade relations, and crude oil prices need attention [8]. - **Protein Meal**: It will oscillate within a range, and long positions can be held. Internationally, factors such as the US Senate's tax bill, US soybean area, and Argentine soybean production are intertwined. Domestically, there is a supply - pressure on the short - term price, but long - term cost support exists [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is finalized, the futures price drops in advance. The supply pressure from policy - grain auctions and the substitution of wheat for feed are negative factors, while the potential production - demand gap is a positive factor [9][10]. - **Hogs**: The strengthening of the macro - sentiment drives up both the spot and futures prices. In the short term, there is a price rebound, but in the long term, there is supply - suppression risk [11][12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: The strong rise of commodities drives the rubber price to run strongly. Currently, the supply has an incremental expectation, and the demand has a decreasing expectation, but it is difficult for a sharp decline to occur in the third quarter [14][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price oscillates within a narrow range. The market is mainly affected by the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities, and the end - user's raw material procurement attitude is negative [17]. - **Cotton**: The low - inventory structure supports the cotton price. Although there is an expected increase in new - cotton production and weak demand in the off - season, the current low inventory makes the price relatively resistant to decline [18][20]. - **Sugar**: There is insufficient power for continuous strengthening. Both domestic and international markets face potential supply - increase pressure, and there is a limit to the price rebound [21]. - **Pulp**: The warm trading atmosphere in the financial market drives the pulp price. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak, and the market oscillates. The market is in the off - season, and the mid - term is affected by weak fundamentals [23][24]. (2)品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, etc., without specific data monitoring content provided.