Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints -受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者需控制仓位、防控风险 [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX黄金期货涨0.36%，报4540.40美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨0.55%，报70.18美元/盎司；沪金主力合约上涨0.6%，报1011.48元/克；沪银主力合约上涨0.86%，报17679元/千克 [1] Important Information - 3月30日，全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上个交易日减少3.429吨，当前持仓量为1046.133吨；全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少121.1吨，当前持仓量为15288.36吨 [1] - 据CME“美联储观察”，美联储4月加息25个基点的概率为2.6%，维持利率不变的概率为97.4%；到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为92.5%，累计加息25个基点的概率为2.5% [1] - 美联储主席鲍威尔讲话称能源冲击通常是短暂的，央行应“耐心等待其自行消退”，政策目前处于有利地位，可等待观察形势发展，私人信贷目前不具备演变为更广泛系统性事件的条件 [1] - 伊朗议会批准对海峡征收通行费，需以伊朗本币支付；以色列海法的炼油厂在导弹袭击中起火，特朗普称回应“很快到来”，正与伊朗进行严肃谈判，若谈判破裂将摧毁伊能源、电力设施和哈尔克岛；伊朗方面称美国要求不合逻辑，不参加巴基斯坦主导的有关战争的会议 [1] Market Logic - 美伊紧张局势持续，特朗普就停火向伊朗发出新威胁，伊方拒绝巴基斯坦斡旋的与美对话；周一国际原油价格继续上涨，NASDAQ指数继续下跌；因鲍威尔讲话偏鸽，美债收益率下行，2年期美债收益率下跌约9个基点收报3.83%；周一美元指数上涨0.33%，收于100.51；周一黄金COMEX和白银均冲高回落，收盘较上周五小幅上涨；近日美国流露出和谈意向，但美伊双方立场差别巨大，未来演变需持续关注 [1] Trading Strategy - 受地缘政治影响，市场短期不确定性较大，投资者注意控制仓位，防控风险 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and investors need to remain cautious and adopt a risk - averse strategy. The situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on various markets, including energy, commodities, and financial markets. In April, the end of Trump's suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities on April 6 and the A - share earnings report season are important observation points. The market may experience a decline in trading volume before the holiday, and the short - term rebound repair may be limited. It is recommended to control positions and wait for confirmation of volume indicators [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and China and the US are in communication about this [7]. - Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, 2026, at 8 pm Eastern Time. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with four conditions [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a "final blow" military option against Iran, including actions such as blockades and attacks on key facilities. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand, suggesting that the international community encourage the US and Iran to return to the negotiation table [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement, and 96 central departments publicly announced their 2026 budgets with a 7.2% year - on - year decrease in the "Three Public Expenses" [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On March 30, the sugar price closed down with a decrease in trading volume. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, but the international market provides support. If the price can stabilize above 5400 yuan/ton, a light - position long position can be considered, with a resistance level around 5500 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: On March 30, the corn price broke through the lower limit of the previous oscillation range. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a resistance level at 2350 - 2360 yuan and a support level at 2330 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: On March 30, the peanut price oscillated at a high level with a decrease in trading volume. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, with a support level at 8000 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price was stable, showing a pattern of "rising in the north and falling in the south". The short - position should be reduced as the market shows signs of stabilization [13]. - **Egg**: The national egg price was stable. The futures price adjusted, and it is recommended to short in the short term [13]. - **Red Date**: The domestic red date market has weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate within the range [13]. - **Cotton**: On March 30, the cotton price oscillated within a narrow range. The supply is supported by production reduction expectations, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long at the lower limit of the oscillation range, with a resistance level at 15500 yuan/ton and a support level at 15300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased. Overseas supply is tightening, and domestic exports are expected to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke increased, and the downstream demand also increased. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented on April 1. It is expected that the overall trend will be strong, with support levels at 1150 - 1200 yuan for coking coal and 1700 yuan for coke [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply pressure of double - offset paper is high, and the demand is weak. The price is restricted by supply and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range of 4000 - 4200 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable. The supply and demand are in a balanced state. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate within the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East and the Fed's monetary policy signal. The prices are oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to risks [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are affected by the situation in the Middle East. The copper - aluminum ratio may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to relevant economic data [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina supply is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is recommended to go long at low prices, while being vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market of rebar and hot - rolled coil is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate and adjust slightly [17]. - **Ferroalloy**: The ferroalloy market is oscillating at a high level. The cost is supported, but attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate continued to be strong and broke through the previous high. The supply is disturbed, and the demand is slightly increasing. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy, while being vigilant against high - level oscillation risks [17][19]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On March 30, the A - share market had mixed performance. The trading volume of the stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options increased. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend [21]. - **Stock Index**: On March 30, the three major A - share indexes had mixed performance. The European and American stock markets also had mixed performance. The market is affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate policy. It is recommended to control positions and wait for market stabilization [21].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the risk of conflict escalation is rising, leading to continuous upward pressure on oil prices and affecting the prices of related commodities such as fuel oil and LPG [3][4][5] - The PTA market needs to pay attention to geopolitical developments, with downstream load slightly decreasing [8] - The urea market is in a stalemate between policy and supply - demand, with prices expected to be in a high - level consolidation [10] - The methanol market is affected by the tense US - Iran geopolitical relationship, with short - term import shortages difficult to resolve, and prices tend to rise [11] - The soda ash market has weakening demand and large supply - demand pressure, with limited rebound drivers [13] - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with production cuts continuing [14] - The caustic soda market shows signs of weakening in the spot and export ends [16] - The copper, gold, and silver markets are all expected to be oscillating strongly [17][18][20] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Oil Products Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitical conflict escalation risk rises, causing continuous upward pressure on oil prices [3] - Fundamentals: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and export disruptions in Russia lead to a tight global crude oil supply. The conflict may extend to the Red Sea, further increasing supply concerns [3] - Macro: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and market expectations for a rate cut are rising. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the macro - sentiment is weak [3] Fuel Oil - Logic: The fundamentals provide support, and the cracking has bottomed out [5] - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support, with limited downward space. Low - sulfur fuel oil has tight supply and a strong demand in Asia, and it is expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term [5][6] LPG - Logic: Geopolitical factors repeatedly disturb, and there is still short - term support [7] - Fundamentals: Geopolitical uncertainties drive up international oil prices and LPG prices. Even if the war cools down, the supply shortage will still support prices in the medium term [7] 02 Aromatics - Polyester PTA - Logic: Pay attention to geopolitical developments, and downstream load slightly decreases [8] - Fundamentals: The TA2605 contract is stable, and the trading volume decreases. The spot market is light. Supply increases, but demand decreases, and the production reduction of polyester filament is expanding [9] 03 Coal Chemical Industry Urea - Logic: There is a stalemate between policy and supply - demand, with high - level consolidation [10] - Fundamentals: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The domestic and international price transmission is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [10] Methanol - Logic: The US - Iran geopolitical relationship is tense again, and short - term import shortages are difficult to resolve, with prices tending to rise [11] - Fundamentals: Affected by geopolitical factors, the futures price fluctuates, and the port and inland prices are strong. Short - term import shortages will support high - level operation [11][12] 04 Salt Chemical Industry Soda Ash - Logic: Demand weakens, and supply - demand pressure is large [13] - Fundamentals: The price is weakly stable, the inventory is accumulating, and the new orders slow down. The supply - demand contradiction will continue to increase, and the rebound needs supply - side cuts [13] Glass - Logic: Supply and demand are both weak, and production cuts continue [14] - Fundamentals: The short - term market sentiment cools down, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance. In the medium term, cost pressure increases, and the improvement in real - estate demand may support prices [14][15] Caustic Soda - Logic: The spot price is loose, and the export end shows signs of weakening [16] - Fundamentals: The spot price is marginally weakening, the export order may slow down, and the cost is also affected. The Strait blockade still affects supply, and the future price trend depends on the Strait's opening situation [16] 05 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Logic: Oscillating strongly [17] - Fundamentals: Upstream mine disturbances and cost support from low processing fees, and long - term demand from the new energy transition are positive factors. If the Middle - East oil price disturbance ends, the macro - pressure may weaken [17] Gold - Logic: Oscillating strongly [18] - Fundamentals: Uncertainties in monetary policy and inflation pressure affect the price. If the Middle - East situation eases and the US dollar weakens, the gold price may rise [18] Silver - Logic: Oscillating strongly [20] - Fundamentals: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation and the Fed's inflation expectations. The price is affected by short - term news events and diplomatic efforts [20] Appendix: Daily Data Monitoring of Each Sector - The daily data monitoring of various sectors includes macro data, futures prices, spot prices, spreads, and other indicators, which reflect the price changes and trends of different commodities such as crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, methanol, copper, gold, and silver [22][23][24][26][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices in early April did not meet the announced increase, mainly remaining the same or slightly declining. The Houthi attacks on Israel may expand the conflict to the Red Sea, but the impact on the actual operation routes of European lines is limited. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. After Iran established a safety corridor, the passage through the strait has rebounded slightly recently, and the geopolitical premium may be partially reversed. - The outlook is weak and volatile. The online freight rates of Jiyu are expected to be weak and volatile. The SCFIS European line is expected to reach a recent high next week and then decline. The establishment of Iran's passage mechanism may lead to a partial reversal of the geopolitical premium [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Logic - According to the latest special report, the spot prices in early April did not meet the announced increase, mainly remaining the same or slightly declining. The Houthi attacks on Israel may expand the conflict to the Red Sea, with limited impact on European lines. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. After Iran established a safety corridor, the passage through the strait has rebounded slightly recently, and the geopolitical premium may be partially reversed [1][6]. 3.2 Spot Market Freight Rates - MSK's online freight rate for the AE1 route in the second week of April was $2350/FEU, up $50 from the opening. HPL SPOT's low - end price for the AE2/NE1 route in early April was adjusted down to $2147/FEU, a decrease of $200 from the previous week. Other voyages remained at $3035/FEU, and the online price in the second half of April was also adjusted down to $3035/FEU. The price in May remained at $3535/FEU. - OOCL's price in the first week of April remained at $2781 - 2881/FEU, up $50 - $100 from the end of March. In the second week of April, the high - end online price decreased, and the freight rates above $3000/FEU dropped to $2787 - 2880/FEU. EMC's freight rate remained unchanged, with a special - offer voyage CES on April 1 at $2650/FEU and other voyages in April at $3060/FEU. CMA CGM's online freight rate in early April was $2725/FEU. - MSC's online freight rate in early April remained at $2852/FEU. ONE's online freight rate at the beginning of April dropped to $2561/FEU, basically the same as at the end of March, and was at $3061/FEU from the second half of April to May [2]. 3.3 Passage Through the Strait - On March 29, there were 8 passages through the strait, including 1 dry - bulk carrier operated by Jia Xiang Da Shipping Co Ltd, a shipping company from Hong Kong, China. - On March 27, the VLCC freight rate from the Middle East to China was updated to $10.78/barrel, a 2% decrease from the previous period, and the VLCC freight rate from West Africa to China was updated to $8.26/barrel, a 1.4% decrease. - Iranian officials plan to implement an access and toll system for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a new strait management system similar to Turkey's management of the Bosphorus Strait and Egypt's management of the Suez Canal [3][6]. 3.4 Futures Contract Data | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Settlement Price (Points) | Price Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Long Position (Lots) | Short Position (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1719.7 | 1757.1 | 1.0408 | 8177 | 7029 | 4577 | 5171 | | EC2605 | 2005.6 | 2049 | - 0.3478 | 1460 | 2027 | | | | EC2606 | 2532.3 | 2567.2 | 7.7886 | 26147 | 17711 | | | | EC2607 | 2625 | 2670 | 4.3198 | 635 | 1231 | | | | EC2608 | 2539 | 2545.6 | 6.958 | 1308 | 2808 | | | | EC2609 | 1753.7 | 1778.9 | 3.1467 | 111 | 541 | | | | EC2610 | 1834.2 | 1656.5 | 4.3399 | 3462 | 7135 | | | | EC2612 | 1834.2 | 1840.7 | 5.1648 | 214 | 471 | | | [9] 3.5 Spot Freight Rate Data | | SCFI | SCFIS | | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index (Points) | 1826.8 | | | Northern European Route ($/TEU) | 1703 | 1752.54 (+3.5%) | | Mediterranean Route ($/TEU) | 2764 | | | US West Route ($/FEU) | 2352 | 1263.40(+23.4%) | | US East Route ($/FEU) | 3264 | | [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On March 30, equity index futures were mixed, while most commodities rose, with SCFIS(Europe) leading the raise. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.3%, and IF dropped 0.3%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Lithium Carbonate, and Benzene, while the top three decliners were Sodium Hydroxide, Synthetic Rubber, and Silicon Metal [9][10][11]. - Crude oil prices are expected to move in a range-bound but strong trend due to supply reductions and rising uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to operate in a range-bound manner as the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively sound. Aluminum prices are expected to remain range - bound with a bullish tilt in the short term and may see an upward shift in the medium - term price center [20][29][37]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 30, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities rose. SCFIS(Europe) led the increase. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.3%, and IF dropped 0.3%. In commodity futures, SCFIS(Europe) rose 6.3% with a 38.4% month - on - month increase in open interest, Lithium Carbonate gained 4.5% with a 4.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest, and Benzene advanced 4.3% with a 1.1% month - on - month increase in open interest. The top three decliners were Sodium Hydroxide, Synthetic Rubber, and Silicon Metal [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 30, the main contract of Crude Oil rose 3.1% to 763.5 yuan/barrel (INE). The Middle East geopolitical situation has led to supply reductions and rising uncertainty over its duration. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have caused sustained supply cuts from Gulf countries. Russia's shipments increased in March but still face security challenges. The market currently faces a supply shortfall, and consumer inventories are expected to decline in April [16][20][21]. 1.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - On March 30, the main Lithium Carbonate futures contract rose 4.5% to 171620 yuan/ton (GFEX). Supply is strong overall, but there are concerns due to disruptions such as Zimbabwe's ore export ban and diesel supply issues in Australia. Demand for cathode and battery production is high from March to April, and the decline in new energy vehicle sales and production is expected to narrow. Inventories have slightly accumulated recently, and the supply - demand balance is tight [25][29][31]. 1.2.3 Aluminum - On March 30, the main Aluminum futures contract rose 3.4% to 24725 yuan/ton (SHFE). Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and geopolitical conflicts increase supply concerns. In the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand is resilient. The price is expected to remain range - bound with a bullish tilt [35][37]. 2. Important News 2.1 Macro News - China plans to build an underwater high - speed railway beneath the Yangtze River with a total investment exceeding 500 billion yuan, which is estimated to drive upstream and downstream industries to generate nearly 1.5 trillion yuan in added value [42]. - Trump wants to "seize" Iran's oil and does not rule out occupying Kharg Island. He also said Iran has agreed to "most of" the 15 - point ceasefire plan [42][43]. - The Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman said U.S. proposals are "highly unreasonable". An Iranian official plans to introduce an access and toll system for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran confirmed that the IRGC Navy Commander was killed in an airstrike [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to oscillate due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil supply and causing price fluctuations. The market is waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear [2]. - Different energy and chemical products show various trends. Some products, such as crude oil, are expected to be volatile and bullish, while others, like urea, are expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [5][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and the supply gap persists. The Strait of Hormuz has a low traffic volume, and the supply shortage is expected to drive oil prices to oscillate strongly. The outlook is bullish [5]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the asphalt futures price oscillates at a high level. The profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated, and production cuts are expected to increase. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [6]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil oscillates at a high level. Geopolitical factors are the core drivers. In the long term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East may increase fuel oil exports, which is a long - term negative factor [6]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the high - level oscillation of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current valuation is relatively low, and it follows the trend of crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The cost remains strongly supported. Due to the tense situation between the US and Iran and the upcoming maintenance season in April, the supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to remain high [10]. - **PTA**: The oil price remains strong, supporting the center of PTA. Although the downstream situation is not clear, the supply is expected to shrink, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to strengthen [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is mainly affected by the geopolitical situation. The supply at home and abroad is expected to decline, and the downstream negative feedback is not obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly [16]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene. The supply may decrease at home and abroad, and the export demand is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The export demand continues, and the de - stocking pattern is expected to expand further. The supply in the Middle East is tight, and the export demand will continue if the strait remains blocked [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream's willingness to chase high prices is insufficient. The supply of polyester staple fiber continues to increase, but the downstream trading is average, and the price is expected to oscillate [21]. - **Bottle Chips**: It is passively following the cost. The upstream polyester raw materials are supported by the strong international oil price, and the price is expected to follow the cost fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and it oscillates within a range. The domestic and overseas situations are uncertain, and the market tends to trade the geopolitical premium [25]. - **Urea**: It is mainly guided by policies and oscillates and consolidates. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand is in a transition period. The price is restricted by policies [27]. - **PE**: Due to the uncertainty of geopolitics, it should be treated with caution. The supply of crude oil is tight, and the import of PE may decrease [30]. - **PP**: Affected by geopolitical news, it oscillates. The direct impact on imports is limited, and the refinery profit is under pressure [31]. - **PL**: Affected by geopolitical expectations, it oscillates. The cost support is obvious, but the downstream powder profit is under pressure [32]. - **PVC**: The production cut is not as expected, and it should be treated with caution. The geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, and the supply and demand situation is complex [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is adjusted, and it should be treated with caution. The geopolitical situation affects the supply and demand, and the inventory removal is not smooth [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread data, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 7.41, change: 0.16), Dubai (M1 - M2: 12.15, change: 2.75), etc. [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt (basis: - 93, change: 109, warehouse receipt: 85620 tons) [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread data, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 391, change: - 260), 1 - month TA - EG (1399, change: - 81) [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis is provided in the given content.

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a bounce back after five weeks of selling, with major averages down approximately 10% from their highs [1][5] - Oil prices are rising, which is positively impacting the stock market, contrary to previous trends where oil and stocks moved in opposite directions [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events are influencing market sentiment, with ongoing discussions in the Middle East potentially affecting oil supply and market stability [2][4] - The geopolitical situation is viewed as a more significant concern than the upcoming jobs report [12][14] Investment Opportunities - There is a belief that current market conditions present a buying opportunity, particularly for long-term investors, despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions [6][7] - Companies like Palantir are highlighted as attractive investments due to their resilience in the face of market volatility and their involvement in AI technology [8][9] Technology Sector - The technology sector, including companies like Nvidia and Alphabet, is viewed positively, with many stocks having been sold off recently, creating potential buying opportunities [10][11][15] - Nvidia's valuation has decreased significantly, trading at 20 times forward earnings compared to 40 times a year or two ago, indicating a favorable long-term outlook [10] Financial Sector - The financial sector is also considered a strong area for investment, with expectations of robust economic growth and capital market activity [15][18] - Despite a challenging start to the year, the financial sector is believed to have favorable tailwinds moving forward [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south non - identical oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect a high start - up in the first quarter, with no prominent domestic contradictions under the situation of both supply and demand being strong. Suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take profits gradually on out - of - the - money call options of butadiene rubber and start to allocate put options. Continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short term, the supply shock is not fully reflected in the fundamentals. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost - end to the production mismatch [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but pay attention to the risk [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to continue to decline, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical industry is at a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 23.00 yuan/barrel, a 3.11% increase, to 763.50 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 180.00 yuan/ton, a 4.05% increase, to 4619.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 176.00 yuan/ton, a 3.44% increase, to 5285.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Start a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; widen the Platts north - south non - identical oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - WTI inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 77.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3319 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 113 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider that methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, while other regions such as Henan, Hebei, etc. had no change. The main futures contract changed by 5 yuan/ton, reported at 1882 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a high start - up in the first quarter, with no prominent domestic contradictions under the situation of both supply and demand being strong. Suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene is strong in the spot market due to the demand from Japan and South Korea. The butadiene rubber production line is in serious loss, and the operating rate is reduced to shrink the supply. The price has room for repair. The overall market changes rapidly. The long and short sides have different views on the rise and fall reasons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take profits gradually on out - of - the - money call options of butadiene rubber and start to allocate put options. Continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan, reported at 5551 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 51 (+114) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 80.9%, with the calcium carbide method at 85.2% and the ethylene method at 70.7%. The downstream operating rate was 46%. The factory inventory was 33.9 (-2.7) tons, and the social inventory was 137.4 (+0.3) tons [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply shock is not fully reflected in the fundamentals. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end East China pure benzene was 8930 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan/ton; the pure benzene active contract closed at 9062 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 132 yuan/ton, narrowing by 37 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 10700 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton; the styrene active contract closed at 10789 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton; the basis was - 89 yuan/ton, strengthening by 335 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 16 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 80.7 yuan/ton, down 110.55 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, down 0.51%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 16.84 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 0.59 tons. The demand - end three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, down 0.27%; the PS operating rate was 51.40%, down 0.20%; the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, up 2.27%; the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, down 4.50% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, down 1.41%. The production enterprise inventory was 58.79 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 1.96 tons, and the trader inventory was 5.63 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 0.15 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, up 2.41%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 129 yuan/ton, narrowing by 6 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9269 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The basis was 81 yuan/ton, strengthening by 244 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, down 2.72%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.97 tons, with a de - stocking of 9.65 tons, the trader inventory was 17.78 tons, with a de - stocking of 1.584 tons, and the port inventory was 6.96 tons, with a de - stocking of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, up 0.65%. The LL - PP spread was - 465 yuan/ton, narrowing by 20 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 338 yuan/ton, widening by 5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost - end to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 76 yuan, reported at 9840 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was - 2 (+40) yuan. The Chinese load was 84%, down 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, down 2.1%. Some devices were restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, up 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February was 480 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 16 tons. The PXN was 120 (-11) dollars, the South Korean PX - MX was 115 (-3) dollars, and the naphtha cracking spread was 364 (-4) dollars [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is expected to further decline, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 108 yuan, reported at 6768 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 92 (-28) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, up 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, down 0.8%. The social inventory on March 27 was 280 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 6.9 tons. The disk processing fee fell 58 yuan, to 313 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but pay attention to the risk [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 80 yuan, reported at 5359 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 125 (-21) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, down 0.6%, with the syngas - made at 73.3%, up 1%, and the ethylene - made load at 61.7%, down 1.5%. Some domestic and overseas devices were restarted or shut down. The downstream load was 86.8%, down 0.8%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 tons, and the East China departure on March 29 was 1.7 tons. The port inventory was 107.5 tons, with a cumulative inventory of 3.6 tons. The naphtha - made profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - made profit was - 2741 yuan, and the coal - made profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - end ethylene rose to 1440 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is expected to continue to decline, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation of oil - chemical industry is at a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but pay attention to the risk due to the large short - term increase [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Asphalt: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of crude oil has a high risk of two-way fluctuations. In the long term, the core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic in the current market. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and crude oil-related products still have strong fundamental support [2] - The supply of asphalt has shrunk, and its price still mainly follows that of crude oil. The marginal improvement in fundamentals gives it sufficient upward flexibility and limited callback space [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The demands of Iran and the US for a ceasefire are difficult to reconcile, and the possibility of reaching a negotiation agreement in the short term is extremely low [1] - The US continues to send a large number of troops to the Middle East. Iran continues to attack US military bases and reaffirms its absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi armed forces threaten to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait [1] - There is still a huge gap between the transport capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East and the normal shipping volume of the Strait of Hormuz [1] - The release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering, and there will be a need for replenishment later [1] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic in the current market. The conflict may further escalate, and the risk of interruption of oil transport channels has increased [2] - The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and crude oil-related products still have strong fundamental support [2] - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the performance of crude oil, but the crack spread has recently declined [2] - On the high-sulfur side, the panic buying sentiment in the shipping fuel market has subsided, but the maintenance capacity of refineries in the Middle East has increased, and the supply is difficult to quickly recover even if the strait resumes traffic [2] - On the low-sulfur side, the domestic main refineries' production plans are relatively high, which suppresses the crack spread trend. However, the supply from overseas refineries has tightened marginally, and the strong performance of refined oil crack spreads provides continuous support for the low-sulfur crack spread [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining and chemical enterprises are worried about future import raw material issues, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce the utilization rate of their production facilities. As a by-product, the supply of asphalt has correspondingly shrunk [3] - In the East and South China regions, most major refineries have stopped production and stopped supplying asphalt. The daily production of asphalt has dropped to 45,000 tons. The production plan for March has been revised down, and the refinery production in April has further declined to 1.58 million tons, which is the absolute low for the same period in recent years [3] - The shipment volume of sample refineries this week has decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further widened [3] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is relatively low [3]