你有没有想过，远在万里之外的一场政治博弈，会如何决定你下周去加油站时，看到的油价是涨是跌？当特朗普一边说着要和马杜罗谈谈，一边又 把"福特"号航母战斗群开到人家门口时，这已经不是简单的外交恐吓了。这盘棋下的很大，棋盘是整个地球，而棋子，就是你我的生活成本。 当一个国家的命运，和全球能源的脉搏被如此紧密地捆绑在一起时，我们距离一场由石油引爆的全球风暴，到底还有多远？ 最近的国际新闻，简直比好莱坞大片还精彩。特朗普政府的对委内瑞拉政策，就像小孩子的脸，说变就变。前脚刚释放出"可以谈"的缓和信号，后 脚就放出狠话，声称美军在理论上可以"合法打击"马杜罗的个人资产乃至委内瑞拉的国家基础设施。 这番言论可不是空穴来风。就在几天前，五角大楼宣布，美军在加勒比地区的兵力部署，已经达到了近三十年来的顶峰。光是一个"福特"号航母打 击群，就带来了超过4000名士兵和一支完整的作战舰队。军机盘旋，战舰游弋，整个加勒比海都弥漫着一股火药味。 这种软硬兼施、极限拉扯的手段，早已是美国的惯用伎俩。对话的橄榄枝，是递给那些可能动摇的委内瑞拉内部势力的；而航母的威慑，则是亮给 马杜罗看的冰冷刀锋。这一套组合拳打下来，目标只有一个：逼你就范 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.88%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, driving down the futures price. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price - holding and adjusting capacity through blank sailings, but the implementation needs to be observed. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy's better - than - expected performance boosts market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1678.100, down 49.8; EC sub - main contract closing price was 1179.6, down 9.7. The spread between EC2602 - EC2604 was 498.50, down 39.80; the spread between EC2602 - EC2606 was 293.10, down 29.00. The EC contract basis was - 320.43, up 47.90. The EC main contract position was 38860 hands, down 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs) was 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1403.64, up 36.79. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2125.00, up 28.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1897.00, down 10.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 27460.00, down 310.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission said the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed potential growth in 2026 and 2027, but debt and deficits will rise due to defense spending. The predicted GDP growth for the eurozone this year is 1.3%, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again at the December meeting. China has made stern representations to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - November 19th, 15:00: UK October CPI monthly rate; November 19th, 15:00: UK October retail price index monthly rate; November 19th, 18:00: Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value; November 19th, 21:30: US August trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1].

近日，日本首相高市早苗在国会答辩时悍然发表涉台露骨挑衅言论，进行武力威胁，发出战争叫嚣。 针对高市的错误言论，中国外交部发言人接连表态：日本当政者妄图介入台海事务，既是对国际正义的 粗暴践踏、对战后国际秩序的公然挑衅，也是对中日关系的严重破坏。如日方胆敢武力介入台海局势， 将构成侵略行为，中方必将迎头痛击！ 日本军国主义"毒素"正随着政治操弄的浇灌，不断扩散。这种蓄意散播的地缘政治病毒，不仅毒化地区 合作土壤，更企图让军国主义的残根在和平的花园中生长。必须斩断这些播撒混乱的毒手，让国际公义 的阳光洒满和平的土壤。 ...

11月18日，香港财政司司长陈茂波出席由英国《金融时报》与信和合办的研讨会致辞指，地缘政治的发 展，正在提升而非削弱香港国际金融中心地位，香港亦正发展成为全球领先创新科技中心，全球只有少 数城市能够做到在这两方面保持领先地位，并有强劲发展势头。 陈茂波指，数个月前美国政策出现重大转变，为全球带来新的不确定性，投资者重新评估风险，寻找具 有透明、一致及稳定的政策环境，并有可信监管框架及熟悉法律制度的司法管辖区，以让他们可以继续 追求回报，而香港正是答案所在，很多金融机构亦扩大在港业务。 陈茂波提到，今年初港股估值只是约12倍，随着全球投资者意识到对中国市场配置不足，吸引大量资金 流入。恒生指数今年以来升约30%，日均成交是去年的2倍多，IPO集资额约280亿美元，上市后融资达 610亿美元。资产及财富管理业亦强劲增长，首8个月香港注册基金录得净流入450亿美元；银行存款至 今亦增长10%至逾2.4万亿美元。 陈茂波认为，随着地缘经济格局重塑加快区域经济合作，促进区内贸易及投资，中国与东盟及中东合 作，香港亦可发挥关键作用，连结市场及引导资金流动，促成企业合作并提供专业支援。 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/18 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Premier Li Qiang has no plans to meet Japanese leaders during G20 Summit. ...

有色金属日报 2025-11-18 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 隔夜美股下跌，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收跌 0.73%至 10766 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 86320 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 325 至 136050 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 升贴水下调。国内电 解铜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments surrounding the Dutch government's attempt to seize control of the Chinese-controlled company, Nexperia, highlighting the geopolitical implications and the impact on the global semiconductor supply chain [1][2][4]. Group 1: Background of the Incident - On September 30, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs issued a ministerial order to freeze global operations of Nexperia, citing "national security" concerns [10][16]. - Nexperia, a major semiconductor manufacturer, was acquired by Chinese company Wingtech Technology in 2019 and has since contributed significantly to the Dutch economy [12][31]. - The Dutch government's actions have been characterized as a blatant attempt to seize control, with the legal basis being the "Goods Availability Act," which had never been used in such a context before [18][19]. Group 2: Reactions and Consequences - The Dutch government's decision has led to significant unrest in the European automotive industry, with calls for dialogue with China [7][9]. - Following the initial actions, China responded with export restrictions on Nexperia, which could severely disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain, affecting major automotive manufacturers [49][50]. - The situation escalated to a point where Nexperia's European clients sought alternative methods to procure semiconductors, indicating a growing sense of insecurity among European businesses [56][57]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The incident reflects broader geopolitical tensions, particularly the influence of the U.S. on European policies regarding Chinese investments in technology [39][46]. - Analysts suggest that the Dutch government's actions may be a test case for U.S. strategies to exert control over Chinese technology firms through allied nations [47][48]. - The article emphasizes the need for Europe to achieve "strategic autonomy" in its decision-making processes, rather than being influenced by U.S. pressures [78][79].

当前趋势主要以短期震荡偏弱：金价在上周五大跌后，本周一处于调整状态。上方受到美联储鹰派言论导致的降息预期降温压制，下方则受到美元走软以及 地缘政治等因素带来的避险需求支撑。 关键阻力位 4110美元、4140美元 关键支撑位 4060美元、4030美元 震荡思路，高抛低吸为主。 对于短线交易，当前市场更偏向于在区间内进行高抛低吸的震荡操作。 如果金价反弹至4110美元至4140美元的阻力区域并出现上涨乏力迹象（比如出现特定的看跌K线形态），可以考虑轻仓试空。止损设置：参考放在4140美元 上方。目标位：可看向4060-4045-4030美元附近。 回调做多机会 如果金价回调至4030美元至4060美元的支撑区域并出现企稳信号（比如小级别图表的看涨K线组合），可以考虑轻仓试多。止损设置：参考放在4030美元下 方。目标位：可看向4100-4110-4030美元上方 今日黄金市场主要呈现震荡格局，短期走势偏弱但中长期上涨基础依然存在。 未来一周，以下事件和数据可能会引起金价较大波动，请密切关注： 反弹做空机会 关键经济数据发布： 9月非农就业报告：将于本周四（11月20日） 公布。这是本周的重中之重，数据结果将显 ...

相对于韩国约1.8万亿美元的GDP，这些财阀的承诺相当于其年经济产出的近30%。不过，许俊永指 出，尽管这些数字看起来令人印象深刻，但其中许多承诺早已在早期支出计划中有所安排。 这股投资浪潮凸显出，地缘政治正日益影响亚洲企业的资本配置。韩国、日本和中国台湾地区作为全球 科技供应链的关键环节，正面临来自美国的巨大压力，要求它们在半导体和绿色技术等领域更紧密地配 合美国的产业战略。 此外，日本最近也承诺推动企业在美国投资5500亿美元，作为其贸易协议的一部分，这为韩国谈判代表 树立了先例。 与过去的投资周期不同，当时企业可以自由权衡国内与海外扩张的回报，如今它们对美的大部分投资承 诺已被政治因素锁定，这限制了企业的灵活性，也可能使它们更不愿意在国内新增产能。 智通财经APP获悉，就在韩国与美国签署具有里程碑意义的贸易与投资协议几天后，韩国最大企业集团 承诺将在本土投资超过5500亿美元，此举旨在表明，即便韩国深化与美国的经济联系，韩国的工业引擎 仍将牢牢扎根于国内。 包括三星集团和现代汽车集团在内的各大企业，于上周日在与韩国总统李在明会晤后，宣布了以人工智 能、半导体和清洁能源为核心的投资计划。未来五年，三星旗下 ...

金价盘中跳水，纽约黄金CFD跌近1%。受盘面影响，黄金相关ETF普跌逾2%。 有分析认为，美联储内部分歧加大，12月及后续降息路径仍存在较大不确定性，对黄金可持续性利多推动有限，结合对地缘政治的判断，后市金价可能难摆 脱高位震荡甚至再度偏弱行情。 | 代码 | 类型 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159562 | 王 | 黄金股ETF | 2.071 | -0.068 | -3.18% | | 159321 | 主 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.456 | -0.043 | -2.87% | | 159831 | 商 | 上海金ETF嘉实 T+0 | 8.932 | -0.258 | -2.81% | | 518600 | 商 | 上海金ETF T+0 | 9.222 | -0.265 | -2.79% | | 518680 | 商 | #ETF T+0 | 9.239 | -0.261 | -2.75% | | 518800 | 商 | 黄金基金ETF T+0 | 8.740 | -0.248 | -2.76% ...