交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-19原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2509： 1.基本面：特朗普称他与泽连斯基及其他欧洲伙伴的会晤"非常好"，并表示他在随后与普京通电话后，开 始安排俄罗斯总统普京与泽连斯基的会晤；受企业盈利表现亮眼及市场对美联储即将重启降息的期待支 撑，美股逼近历史高位，投资者正热切期盼美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的演讲能释放足 够鸽派的信号；中性 2.基差：8月18日，阿曼原油现货价为67.95美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.43美元/桶，基差20.75 元/桶，现货平水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至8月8日当周API原油库存增加151.9万桶 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | 11/2 | 1200 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | 20.00 | | 1965 | C 22.0 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌、中东等地缘寻求停战，避险情绪下降，短期盘面缺乏向上动力。中长期，主 | | ★ | 止跌试多 | 要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需求。长 | | | | 期黄金继续战略配置。 | | 白银 | | 中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺， | | | 反弹做多 | 供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白银基本面变化不大，品种弹性较大， | | ★ | | 谨防黄金波动影响，短期关注 9150 附近表现，长期做多。 | | | | 全球央行年会在即，市场预测鲍威尔或发声偏鹰，打压美联储降息预期，美元反弹 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 铜价承压，建议回调轻仓试多。中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿 | | ★ | | 紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content Core Views of the Report - For rubber, supply remains stable, short - term rain affects new rubber release, cost support is strong, but downstream production control in late August may slow inventory reduction and limit price rebound, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - For coke, after six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing. The spot market is stable, and the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [2] - For polyester bottle - chips, raw material support weakens, downstream demand is for rigid replenishment, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4] - For rebar, with the approaching parade, blast furnace restrictions are uncertain. Supply and demand both decline, inventory accumulates, but there is still support below the futures price, and the focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [5] - For iron ore, supply is stable, demand is high, and the market is expected to oscillate as the fundamental situation is healthy [6] - For live pigs, supply exceeds demand in the short term, with weak price adjustments, and farmers can consider selling hedging [7] - For palm oil, domestic inventory is increasing, but due to bullish sentiment and pre - holiday demand, prices are expected to oscillate upward [7] - For soybean meal, downstream acceptance is low, but as inventory is consumed, prices are expected to rise, and the M01 contract is expected to oscillate widely with strong support below [8] - For soda ash, supply is increasing, downstream demand is average, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - For methanol, domestic production is rising, downstream demand is stable, inventory is accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - For polypropylene, supply is abundant, inventory is high, and the PP01 contract is expected to oscillate, with suggestions to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - For gold, geopolitical tensions may ease, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] - For silver, the market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] - For short - term treasury bonds, rising capital costs and the stock - bond seesaw effect are negative for the bond market, with a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] - For crude oil, supply expectations are raised, demand growth is lowered, and there is no short - term upward driving force, with an expected oscillatory downward trend [13] Summaries by Product Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices decline, with cup - lump down 0.35 baht/kg to 49.45 baht/kg, and latex remaining at 54.2 baht/kg. In Hainan, heavy rain disrupts tapping, and glue output is scarce. From January to July, China's rubber tire exports reach 563 tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [1] Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 45 yuan/ton, with different profitability in various regions. After six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing [2] Polyester Bottle - chips - In this trading cycle, the output is 32.27 tons, remaining flat. The average weekly profit is - 218.5 yuan/ton, down 11.75 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is in the peak season, with stable downstream industry operating rates [4] Rebar - On August 18, domestic steel prices fluctuate. The billet price in Tangshan drops by 20 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities drops by 14 yuan/ton [5] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14381.57 tons, an increase of 114.30 tons. The daily port clearance volume is 346.80 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons. Overseas mine shipments decline slightly, and port arrivals return to last year's level [6] Live Pigs - On August 18, the average pork price in the national agricultural wholesale market is 20.20 yuan/kg, a 0.7% increase from last Friday. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is in a state of oversupply in the short term [7] Palm Oil - As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions is 61.73 tons, a 2.92% increase from last week and a 5.96% increase from last year [7] Soybean Meal - In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreases by 4.24% to 680.4 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increases by 1.12% to 101.47 tons [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, with an oscillatory downward trend. The weekly output is 76.13 tons, a 2.24% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers is 189.38 tons, a 1.54% increase [9] Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu is 2302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The port inventory is 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. Production is rising, and downstream demand is stable [10] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawing - grade polypropylene is 7022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. Production is stable, supply is abundant, and inventory is high [11] Gold - Trump and Zelensky meet at the White House, with possible geopolitical easing, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] Silver - The market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On August 18, most money - market interest rates rise, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being negative for the bond market, and a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] Crude Oil - Trump hosts the Ukraine summit, and各方 support peace. The IEA raises supply expectations and lowers demand growth forecasts, with no short - term upward driving force [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska focused on the Ukraine situation and the implications of Chinese purchases of Russian oil, with Trump indicating that the U.S. is not planning immediate tariff retaliation against China for these purchases [1][4]. Background - Trump's "America First" policy, initiated after taking office, has utilized tariffs as a tool to pressure countries buying Russian oil, aiming to cut off funding for Russia's military actions in Ukraine [1][3]. - Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, India's imports of Russian oil surged from less than 1% to over one-third of its total imports, primarily due to lower prices [1][3]. Tariff Actions - Trump imposed tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil as a trial for secondary sanctions, later escalating tariffs on Indian goods due to its significant Russian oil imports [3][4]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, which is the largest buyer of Russian oil, but has not yet acted on this threat [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments about delaying tariffs on China, oil prices fell due to reduced supply concerns [4][7]. - Analysts warn that if India were to stop buying 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian oil, global oil prices could rise significantly [3][4]. Geopolitical Implications - The meeting highlighted the intertwining of geopolitical and trade issues, with Trump attempting to leverage tariffs to pressure Russia while facing potential backlash from allies like India [7][12]. - Both China and India have emphasized their energy security and the legality of their oil imports, indicating resistance to U.S. pressure [4][10]. Future Outlook - The potential for renewed tariffs remains contingent on the progress of the Ukraine situation, with Trump indicating that if no advancements are made, tariffs could be reconsidered [5][12]. - The ongoing dynamics suggest a complex interplay between energy markets and geopolitical strategies, with significant implications for global oil supply and pricing [7][12].

Group 1 - China's slight increase in US Treasury holdings by $100 million in June, after three months of reduction, has drawn significant attention despite being a small figure in the vast debt market [1][3] - China's total US Treasury holdings now stand at $756.4 billion, making it the third-largest holder, contrasting sharply with Japan's increase of $12.6 billion and the UK's surge of $48.7 billion [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations have led to fluctuations in US Treasury prices, with an overall increase of about 1% in June, reflecting a potential opportunity for China to "buy the dip" [3] Group 2 - China's cautious approach in increasing its US Treasury holdings indicates a need for flexibility in foreign exchange reserves and a strategy to stabilize external environments amid global market volatility [3][5] - Trump's recent decision to delay tariffs on China, following a meeting with Putin, suggests a strategic adjustment in response to the complex international situation, providing room for reevaluation [3][5] - The extension of the US-China trade truce allows Trump to avoid escalating tensions that could destabilize markets, highlighting the necessity for China as a buyer to alleviate the US's $37 trillion debt burden [5] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict directly impacts US-China relations, with potential for continued restraint from Trump if a ceasefire is achieved, but risks of renewed tensions if the situation deteriorates [7] - The interplay of US Treasury holdings, tariffs, and international dynamics reflects the multifaceted nature of great power competition, emphasizing the need for both countries to remain vigilant and seek cooperative opportunities to prevent strategic miscalculations [7]

Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 marks a subtle "thaw" in US-Russia relations, indicating a willingness to address mutual concerns despite no formal agreements being signed [1][3] - Trump's positive remarks about Putin and the meeting's atmosphere suggest a potential shift in diplomatic engagement, although he deflected responsibility for the Ukraine issue onto Zelensky [1][3] - The cancellation of the US Treasury Secretary's visit to India casts a shadow over India's trade prospects, highlighting the complexities of US-India relations amid rising tensions [1][5] Group 2 - Wang Yi's visit to India following the US-Russia meeting is seen as a strategic move by China to strengthen ties with India, especially after recent high-level interactions have improved bilateral relations [3][5] - The economic complementarity between China and India, particularly in manufacturing and services, presents opportunities for collaboration, but security issues must be addressed first [5][7] - India's recognition of the impracticality of a strict alignment with the US indicates a strategic shift towards a more independent foreign policy, seeking to balance relations between China and the US [7]

日妆持续在走下坡路，且不止在中国市场面临严峻挑战，从整体业绩、业务、地区表现等不同视角看，日妆巨头们也有各自的难题： 海外及除中国外的其他市场(如东南亚泰国)寻增量，花王美洲、欧洲、海外分别增长2.4%、3.0%、2.3%，I-ne清算中国子公司转战东南亚，高丝则致力于 进军海外南方市场并加强泰国店铺布局。 日妆巨头们近年来面临难题已是不争的事实，结合聚美丽梳理的日妆企业最新财报数据来看，还有以下关键信息值得关注： 营业利润冰火两重天：花王暴涨近108%，高丝、I-ne分别下滑17.7%、17.0%； 日妆巨头旗下品牌多陷下滑困境：醉象暴跌57%，安热沙、资生堂品牌、黛珂、POLA分别下滑15%、4%、1.5%、3.2%； 日妆巨头们在日本市场面临部分挑战：如高丝旗下雪肌精下滑0.5%，日本化妆品市场下滑3.4%，醉象日本闭店等； 受中国市场拖累，日妆在包括中国市场在内相关市场下滑占多数，时至2025年，撤退、清算、闭店动向仍不断； 最高大跌18%，日妆巨头们各有难题！ 剔除非化妆品业务后，从2025年上半年五大日妆企业业绩表现来看，仍存挑战。 如下图所示，仅花王营利双增，营业利润大涨107.87%，但净销售 ...

Group 1 - The core action taken by Trump is the significant increase of tariffs on India to 50%, indicating an escalation in the trade conflict between the US and India [1][3] - This marks the first time the US has imposed tariffs on a country for its business dealings with Russia, shifting from financial sanctions to trade as a weapon [3][5] - The increase in tariffs could lead to a reevaluation of India's economic ties with the US, potentially pushing India to strengthen its relationships with Russia and China, undermining US efforts to contain China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region [5][7] Group 2 - The trade volume between the US and India is projected to exceed $130 billion in 2024, with significant imports from India including pharmaceuticals and communication equipment [5][8] - The 50% tariff could raise costs for US companies, ultimately affecting consumers as prices in supermarkets may increase [5][8] - Trump's strategy appears to be aimed at consolidating support from the right-wing base by linking tough trade policies with anti-Russian sanctions [7][8]

国际关系研究报告 证券研究报告 国金政策与战略组 分析师：杨佳妮（执业 S1130524040002） yangjiani@gjzq.com.cn 联系人：商景皓 shangjinghao@gjzq.com.cn 国金地缘政治周观察｜美俄总统会谈点评与展望 核心观点 地缘动向复盘：本周聚焦美俄领导人阿拉斯加会谈。俄罗斯的停火条件与核心诉求是什么？俄乌冲突未来以什么形 式收场？这些问题既需要美俄领导人的"坦诚"交流，也需要欧洲、乌克兰等多个国家的协调与沟通。从会谈结果 上看，特朗普与普京都对此做出了乐观评价，这似乎为今后俄乌停火与实现和平打造一个好的起点。但是，作为冲 突的另一个当事方乌克兰，能否在谈判中让步仍需后期跟踪观察。美俄会谈的顺利，对中国的直接影响是美国所谓 的"二级关税"危机可以暂告一段落，这意味着二级关税本身就是美国施压俄罗斯的筹码，而非中美之间的结构性 矛盾。 国金观点周观察： 2025 年 08 月 17 日 国际关系动态报告 （1）美俄领导人会谈整体顺利，双方主要任务在于"倾听"对方诉求。会谈开始前，特朗普表态会谈失败的概率 只有 25%，普京方面，则在走过红毯后与特朗普一同乘坐美国总统专车 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a strong operational trend due to macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions [1][2][3] - The U.S. and China have agreed to pause tariff increases for 90 days, which may positively impact trade relations [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data has increased expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although PPI data suggests inflation may rise in the coming months [2][3] - The U.S. has expanded the range of steel and aluminum import tariffs, affecting hundreds of products [3] - Zambia's copper production has declined, raising concerns about meeting the government's annual production target of 1 million tons [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92 percentage points [9] - Key stocks that performed well include Bowei Alloy (+39.60%) and Jintian Co. (+34.32%) [9] 2. Key Focus & Metal Prices & Inventory Changes 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices on LME were $9,760/ton, down 0.08% week-on-week, while SHFE prices were ¥79,060/ton, up 0.73% [21][23] - Aluminum prices on LME were $2,603/ton, down 0.46%, and SHFE prices were ¥20,770/ton, up 0.41% [21][23] 2.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices were $3,381.70/oz, down 2.21%, while SHFE gold prices were ¥775.80/g, down 1.52% [35][36] 2.3 Energy Metals - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose to ¥82,000/ton, up 14.69% week-on-week [40][41] 2.4 Strategic Metals - Prices for praseodymium oxide reached ¥568,100/kg, up 5.46% week-on-week [44] 3. Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining are recommended due to supply constraints and strong price support [54][56] - In precious metals, companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold are favored due to ongoing U.S. tariff policies and debt issues [54] - Strategic metals like tungsten and antimony are expected to see valuation reconstruction opportunities, with recommendations for companies like Bowei Alloy [55]