1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market demand for black building materials is weak, with steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal all showing downward or weakening trends [1][3][5][7] - For steel, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates need improvement through production cuts [1] - Iron ore is facing a situation where supply may increase and demand is weakening, and the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions may lead to price pressure [3] - The demand for coking coal and coke is soft, and the price of coking coal is falling, while the price of coke is under downward pressure [5][6] - The thermal coal market is also weak, with falling prices at the mine mouth and in ports, and a supply - demand pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3079 yuan/ton and 3252 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has weak trading, with poor speculative sentiment and mainly low - price terminal purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with declining consumption and production, and reduced inventory pressure. The supply - demand of plates needs improvement through production cuts to reduce seasonal inventory pressure. With the arrival of the off - season for building materials, attention should be paid to the impact on fundamentals and the changes in production cuts and profits [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weak. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume in major ports is 113.7 million tons, a 1.25% increase from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply has slightly increased this week. High prices may stimulate supply, but some inventories are locked. Demand is weakening, with a decline in daily average pig iron production and seasonal decline expectations. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and price pressure may occur if external factors are removed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are falling. The demand for coke in some regions is weak due to blast furnace maintenance, and the price of coking coal at the mine mouth is continuously falling. The price of imported Mongolian coal has also declined, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to about 970 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The trading of coking coal is weak, and the supply - demand structure of coke is relatively loose. The price of coke is under downward pressure due to the weak cost side. Attention should be paid to the impact of autumn - winter environmental protection on enterprises and coal price trends [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to trade in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices of thermal coal at the mine mouth in the main production areas are falling. The market demand is weak, with terminal demand - based procurement and traders having a bearish outlook. The port market is also weak, with rising inventories and difficult trading. The prices of both domestic and imported coal are falling, and imported coal has a cost - performance advantage [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price is in a range - bound state. In the long - term, the supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $58.25 per barrel, down $0.63, a decrease of 1.07% [2] - Brent February contract closed at $61.94 per barrel, down $0.55, a decrease of 0.88% [2] - EIA's report indicates that U.S. oil production is expected to reach a record high, with 2025 production revised up by 20,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 380,000 barrels per day [2][17] - The expectation of oversupply in the global market is increasing, with U.S. oil production for December averaging 13.85 million barrels per day, slightly down from November's 13.86 million barrels per day [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.34% to 2418 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 1.7% to 3014 yuan per ton [18] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to increased supply and weak downstream demand [18] - The market is expected to remain under pressure until January due to supply-driven fundamentals [18] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.41% to 2943 yuan per ton [18] - Winter storage prices are expected to drop to near five-year lows, with forecasts suggesting prices between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [18] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber fell by 80 yuan per ton to 14985 yuan per ton, while NR rose by 15 yuan per ton to 12080 yuan per ton [20] - The market is under pressure due to improved weather in overseas production areas and insufficient demand support [20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4644 yuan per ton, down 1.07%, while PX futures closed at 6780 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [21] - The overall production and sales in Jiangsu are weak, with average sales estimated at slightly above 40% [21] - Domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to tighten, but long-term inventory pressure remains [21] Methanol - Methanol prices are stable, with Taicang spot prices at 2075 yuan per ton [22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to slow unloading pace and limited price increases in downstream polyolefins [22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins negative for various production methods [23] - The market is transitioning to a supply-driven environment with high inventory pressure on downstream [23] PVC - PVC prices in East China have decreased, with the market facing high supply and slowing domestic demand [24] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish, with prices expected to trend towards the bottom [24] Urea - Urea prices continue to weaken, with mainstream prices in Shandong and Henan at 1690 yuan per ton and 1680 yuan per ton, respectively [25][26] - The market is characterized by high supply levels and fluctuating demand, with production rates showing regional disparities [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remain stable, with the market sentiment pressured by new capacity additions [27] - Demand support is limited, and the market is expected to continue facing downward pressure [27] Glass - Glass prices continue to decline, with the average price at 1097 yuan per ton [28] - The market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and declining demand [28]

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: December 09, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current fundamentals of ethylene glycol lack overall drivers, but the continuous decline of spot prices to low levels has weakened the market selling pressure. It is expected to maintain a low-level volatile trend in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: The closing price of EG2601 was 3,701 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 3,809 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The trading volume was 178,188 lots and the open interest was 310,473 lots. The main contract opened at 3,722 yuan, with the highest at 3,732 yuan, the lowest at 3,687 yuan, and settled at 3,706 yuan [7] 2. Industry News - International oil prices: Expected Fed rate cut next week may boost economic growth and energy demand, and geopolitical uncertainties support the market. WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 settled at $60.08 per barrel, up $0.41 or 0.69%; Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 settled at $63.75 per barrel, up $0.49 or 0.77% [8] - Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market: The spot negotiation price was 3,681 - 3,683 yuan/ton this week, down 65.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation prices before December 19th, late December were in different ranges. The spot basis was at a discount to EG2601, and the basis situation varied in different periods. The futures market continued to be weak, and the spot price continued to decline [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, basis between futures and spot, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price and inventory, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the market supply and demand for pork is becoming more active, with supply growth outpacing demand growth [1] - From November 24 to 30, the retail price of pork in 36 major cities across the country decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous week [1] - The eastern region experienced the most significant price declines, with Shijiazhuang, Ningbo, and Jinan seeing decreases of 4.0%, 2.5%, and 1.8% respectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The short - term steel price of rebar may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [1]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias as the US economy is under pressure and the market's expectation of future interest rate cuts increases [1]. - The main contract price of ferrosilicon is expected to remain low as the cost is firm but the market supply - demand is still loose [3]. - Coking coal should be viewed as short - term volatile, with a slight rebound in the futures market and waiting for downstream restocking [4]. - Hog prices will be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short at appropriate times and farmers should hedge at appropriate times [5]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate between 2820 - 2860, and follow - up policies and import news should be focused on [6][7]. - The bond market will be short - term volatile and bearish, but the downside space is limited [7]. - Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and whether gold and silver will diverge should be noted [7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and follow - up Fed interest rate cut decisions should be monitored [8]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate slightly weakly in the short term due to high port inventory [9]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term downward trend has not ended [9][10]. - PVC market price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply is high and demand is weak [10]. - It is advisable to wait and see in the crude oil market as supply surplus restricts price increases [11]. - PTA should be considered with a bullish - biased oscillation idea, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly as downstream demand is weak [12]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Rebar - As of the week of December 4, rebar production was 189.31 tons, a decrease of 16.77 tons (8.14%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 142.68 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons (2.76%); social inventory was 361.13 tons, a decrease of 23.62 tons (6.14%); apparent demand was 216.98 tons, a decrease of 10.96 tons (4.81%). Production and apparent demand have declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventories have declined for eight consecutive weeks [1]. 2. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022. US private data showed that non - farm employment decreased by 9,000 in November, and the October data was revised downwards. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [1]. 3. Ferrosilicon - The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 73,050 tons, a decrease of 10.21% (8,310 tons) month - on - month. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu all saw inventory decreases. The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is loose and prices have limited upside [3]. 4. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.6%, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month. Raw coal daily output decreased by 0.9 tons, and raw coal and clean coal inventories increased. Some domestic coal mines were affected by safety inspections, while Mongolian coal imports remained high. The real demand for furnace materials is weak, but the market has a short - term rebound [4]. 5. Hog - On December 4, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 17.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous day. The supply of hogs exceeds demand, and prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. 6. Palm Oil - Due to declining exports and record - high production in November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high. The market is waiting for the MPOB report on December 10 to provide guidance [5]. 7. Soybean Meal - Brazil's soybean export volume in December is expected to be 2.81 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to be 1.33 million tons. China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans is progressing slowly, and the domestic breeding industry is weak, limiting the growth of soybean meal demand [6][7]. 8. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly increased. The year - end capital market may tighten marginally, which is negative for the bond market, but the downside space is limited [7]. 9. Gold - The US White House official said that the Fed may cut interest rates by about 25 basis points in the next meeting. If a dovish chairman takes office, it will be negative for gold [7]. 10. Aluminum - The ADP employment data in the US in November was weak, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is limited, demand has resilience, and the prices of copper and silver in the non - ferrous metal sector also drive up aluminum prices [8]. 11. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate is high, downstream demand has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. High port inventory restricts the upside of prices [9]. 12. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 3.15% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 3.07%. The demand for soda ash is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the high - level inventory of manufacturers is difficult to resolve [9][10]. 13. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 4,460 yuan/ton. The operating rate is expected to increase, supply is high, social inventory continues to accumulate, and domestic demand is in the off - season [10]. 14. Crude Oil - The time for reaching a phased Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation plan is postponed, and the relationship between the US and Venezuela is tense, increasing geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, but the supply surplus restricts price increases [11]. 15. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days. PTA supply reduction is more than expected, but the weakening terminal demand restricts the upside of prices [11]. 16. Rubber - The price of Thai rubber latex is 55.5 Thai baht/kg. The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year. Tire operating rates are low, and downstream demand is weak [12].

12月4日（周四），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价周四从历史高位回落，交易商表示，导致本周铜价飙 升的供应紧张恐慌情绪已经开始缓解。 伦敦时间12月4日17:00(北京时间12月5日01:00)，三个月期铜收盘下跌37.50美元，或0.33%，报每吨 11,450.00美元，盘中稍早一度触及11,529美元，距离周三创下的每吨11,540美元历史高点仅一步之遥。 LME公布的数据显示，韩国仓库的新净注销量再增50,725吨，此前亚洲地区仓单注销量已于前日突破 50,725吨。 周三LME现货铜合约与三个月合约价差因此一度升至每吨88美元左右，为10月中以来最高，表明市场 对即期金属的需求强劲。周四该溢价回落至62美元左右。 Sucden Financial指出，2025年铜市供需仍维持微弱盈余，但当前任何轻微扰动都可能导致缺口。该经纪 商认为每吨10,830美元是铜价年底前的关键支撑位。 "预计节假日期间流动性将持续恶化。叠加整个金属板块投机参与度居高不下，这将加剧市场出现异常 波动或无序波动的风险，尤其在价差本已收窄的薄弱市场中。" 与此同时，高盛将2026年上半年伦铜均价预测自每吨10,415美元上调至每吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-3 纸浆大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 油脂：近日棕油和豆油相对偏强 蛋白粕：内外盘期价震荡，豆菜粕价差或扩大 玉米/淀粉：东北华北价格分化，期货维持震荡 生猪：供应充裕，价格趋弱 天然橡胶：维持小幅震荡 合成橡胶：原料出口消息点燃市场激情，基本面变化不大 棉花：棉价持续反弹，套保压力限制上方空间 白糖：糖价震荡徘徊，供应压力边际增大 纸浆：期货大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 双胶纸：原料端反弹，双胶纸向上修复 原木：原木反弹修复估值 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 研究员： 刘高超 从业资格号：F3011329 投资咨询号：Z0012689 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z0002180 吴静雯 从业资格号：F3083970 投资咨询号：Z0016293 李艺华 从业资格号： F03086449 投资咨询号： Z0019380 程也 从业资格号： F03087739 投资咨询号： Z0019480 周重廷 从业资格号：F03093821 投资咨询号：Z0020578 刘 ...

【国富期货早间看点】印尼12月毛棕榈油参考价926.14美元/吨 USDA美豆当周出口合计净增110.80万吨 20251201 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月1日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4114.00 | 0. 61 | | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 32 | -0.95 | -1.02 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 58. 48 | -0. 12 | -1.25 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1137.25 | 0. 44 | 0. 13 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 318. 60 | -0. 65 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52.08 | 2.02 | 0. 85 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (美分/浦式耳) | | (美元/吨) | | 进口大豆报价 | 美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current market still has a prominent high - inventory contradiction, and the improvement in terminal demand is limited. Although industry profit repair and the low - valuation pattern provide some bottom support for prices, before the supply - demand fundamentals improve substantially, the market is expected to continue to oscillate. It is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and consider a covered option strategy [8][45][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Overview - In November 2025, the price of the glass futures main contract FG2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton, a monthly change of - 2.77%, closing at 1053 yuan/ton. The national average price of the float glass market was 1135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, or 7.35% [5][6]. - The inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. b. Spot Price Trend - In November, the domestic float glass market price generally declined. At the beginning of the month, the market sentiment improved due to the concentrated shutdown of 4 coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area, but then weakened due to weak demand and high intermediate inventory. Near the end of the month, the market sentiment improved again due to the shutdown of some production lines in Hubei [9]. - The average prices in all regions decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, in North China, the average price was 1106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.22% [10]. c. Cost - Profit Analysis - In October, the profits of float glass and upstream soda ash decreased. Soda ash (ammonia - soda process) was in continuous loss, and the average profit of float glass turned negative [15]. - The average profit of float glass with different fuels decreased significantly in October compared with the previous month. For example, the average profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton [18]. d. Supply - Side Situation - In November, the monthly output and capacity utilization rate of float glass decreased. The estimated output was 4.7634 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92%. The average daily output was 158,900 tons, a decrease of 250 tons or 1.55% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.38%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [23]. - The maintenance loss in November was 1.2374 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,100 tons or 3.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 22,700 tons or 1.8%. From January to November, the cumulative maintenance loss was 14.0396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9469 million tons or 20.99% [27]. e. Demand - Side Situation - In November, the total consumption of float glass increased month - on - month. The domestic theoretical consumption was 5.0019 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.42% [30]. f. Inventory - Side Situation - In November, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. g. Import and Export Data - In October, the import of float glass was 13,800 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons or 25.92% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 193,500 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons or 8.41% compared with the same period last year [40]. - In October, the export of float glass was 81,000 tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons or 32.81% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 857,400 tons, an increase of 445,800 tons or 108.31% compared with the same period last year [43]. h. Market Outlook - In November, the domestic float glass market continued its downward trend, with prices falling to a nearly ten - year low. The core contradiction in the market lies in the deep game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [45]. - In terms of supply, there is a substantial contraction, but demand remains weak. The profit situation has deteriorated significantly compared with October. In the future, the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level after a rebound from oversold conditions [45][47].