市场降温叠加库存再度施压，铜价短期区间回调 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 截至7月25日当周，沪铜主力合约价格从79820元/吨回落至79290元/吨，跌 幅约0.66%；LME铜价从9854.5美元/吨降至9796美元/吨，延续高位回调趋 势。现货升水显著收窄，升水铜升水环比从180元/吨跌至165元/吨，平水 铜升水从110元/吨降至85元/吨，显示现货供应压力增大。LME铜0-3贴水扩 大至-53.68美元/吨。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓量增至27.04万手，但SHFE铜库存增至12.85万吨，多空博弈加 剧。上海市场临近月末持货商抛售换现情绪增强，下游采购仅维持刚需， 市场流动性边际转弱。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动因素加剧。Newmont旗下RedChris矿因事故暂停运营，叠加嘉能可 Mount Isa矿于下周正式关闭，削弱全球铜矿供应弹性。但江铜赞比亚项目 投产补充加工端供应。整体冶炼端维持高位，进口铜到港及国产补充导致 上海地区垒库。 需求端： 淡季特征明显。铜线缆企业开工率环比下降2.07%至70.83%，预计下周进一 步降至70.30%，主 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations while awaiting the Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts [3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 25, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,250 CNY/ton, up 1.07% from July 18, while LME copper closed at 9,796 USD/ton, up 0.02% [3] - Domestic copper prices are rising in line with the "anti-involution" sentiment in domestic commodities, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The cable operating rate is lower than the same period last year, and domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline in Q3, indicating weak demand [3] - However, supply from mines and scrap copper remains tight, and with a rebound in demand for power grids and air conditioning in Q4, copper prices are expected to rise [3] Group 3: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 20% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory increased by 5% [4] - As of July 25, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 561,000 tons, down 23.2% from the previous week [4] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 449,000 tons as of July 21, 2025, up 5.7% [4] Group 4: Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 125 CNY/ton this week [5] - In March 2025, China's refined copper production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5] Group 5: Smelting and Exports - In June 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6] - The import volume of electrolytic copper in June increased by 18.7% month-on-month, while the export volume surged by 134.2% [7] Group 6: Demand Analysis - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 70.83%, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous week [8] - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in June, lower than the previously expected 11.5% [8] Group 7: Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 31.4% week-on-week, reaching 181,000 lots [9] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 2.2% week-on-week, totaling 40,000 lots [9]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper market, highlighting the current supply-demand dynamics and price movements in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply Tightness and Price Increase** Since mid to late May, global copper inventories have decreased year-on-year compared to 2024, indicating a supply tightness that has driven copper prices up. By early July, copper prices surpassed $10,000, primarily driven by actual demand rather than macro funds [1][2]. 2. **Domestic Inventory Trends** As of July 21, domestic copper inventories unexpectedly decreased by 24,700 tons, with good operating rates for refined copper and copper rods. This trend suggests that the domestic inventory has reached a turning point [1][3]. 3. **LME and COMEX Inventory Changes** LME copper inventories rose from a low of 90,000 tons to approximately 125,000 tons, showing signs of peaking around July 23-24. In contrast, COMEX inventories accumulated due to high copper prices suppressing demand, with U.S. demand expected to drop by 200,000 tons due to tariffs [1][4]. 4. **Catalysts for the Second Half of 2025** Several factors are expected to catalyze the copper market in the second half of 2025, including anticipated interest rate cuts, the traditional peak season, and potential production cuts from smelters. These factors are likely to encourage macro funds or investment funds to increase their positions, further driving up copper prices [1][5]. 5. **External Demand and Electricity Equipment Imports** The import growth rate for electrical equipment is projected to be 20% year-on-year in 2025, indicating strong external demand. Electrical equipment accounts for 70% of export demand, with U.S. and European imports also expected to grow by about 20% [1][6]. 6. **Impact of Investment Fund Positions** As of July 18, LME investment fund positions fell below the levels seen in April 2025, with a five-year position percentile at 44%, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, strong actual demand is making it difficult for shorts to push prices down. If interest rate cuts materialize, along with seasonal demand and production cuts, investment fund positions are likely to increase, positively impacting prices [1][7]. Other Important Insights - The domestic actual copper demand, excluding exports, shows significant seasonal variations, remaining weak in the off-season but expected to be strong in the peak season. The overall market is anticipated to maintain a stable growth trajectory without significant fluctuations [1][3][6].

Group 1 - LME inventory has decreased significantly from approximately 4,800 tons at the beginning of the year to 1,690 tons, representing a cumulative reduction of 65%, reaching a near two-year low [1] - The low inventory levels have increased the risk of short selling in LME tin, with a major holder owning 50-79% of the warehouse receipts, and concentrated long positions in the near term [1] - The LME 0-3 spot premium has expanded significantly, leading to a substantial increase in night trading for LME tin, which in turn has driven up domestic tin prices [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports saw a slight decline in June, while exports increased, with the overall import level expected to decrease due to a persistently closed import window and low profit margins [2] - The domestic supply of refined tin is under pressure, with expectations of substantial outflows of tin ore in Q4 due to the reopening of mining operations in Myanmar [2] - The consumption side is facing challenges, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is suppressing solder demand, and the electronics and automotive electronics sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to weak order growth [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.36% to $9,933.5/ton, while SHFE copper fell 0.16% to 79,680 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still slightly in the red. With the approaching August tariff deadline, the EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump's claim of a US - Japan agreement has led to market optimism. The third - round China - US consultations are set to take place in Sweden next week. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,567 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 9,972 tons. Affected by the off - season, consumption is weak, but some enterprises are stocking up in advance due to concerns about price increases. The Inner Mongolia flotation incident may cause safety - related production cuts, intensifying the shortage of concentrates. With the approaching August 1st, although there are many positive factors, uncertainties also exist, so weekly market trends should be viewed with caution. The domestic anti - involution impact on the market has eased, and its impact on copper is relatively weak but still affects market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weak and volatile trend. Alumina's AO2509 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, with an increase in open interest. Shanghai aluminum's AL2509 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, also with an increase in open interest. The aluminum alloy's AD2511 closed at 20,140 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with a decrease in open interest. The SMM alumina price rebounded, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots decreased. The processing fees of aluminum rods and some aluminum products changed. Due to the maintenance of some alumina plants, the commissioning of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the southwest, and low warehouse receipts, the supply of alumina is tight. As the amount of goods delivered to the warehouse recovers and may peak, it is difficult to short - sell under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing are shrinking, and inventory accumulation in the off - season has started, which forms a game with low near - month warehouse receipts. The unilateral rebound space of aluminum alloy is limited, and attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.29% to $15,575/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.1% to 123,660 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel spread increased by 50 yuan/ton. Weekly nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices were at a three - year low, and nickel salt prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support is weakening, weekly inventory has decreased, and supply in July has decreased slightly month - on - month, indicating that the supply - demand pattern may be gradually improving. The domestic weekly inventory of primary nickel has increased, and market pressure is emerging. In the short term, prices will still fluctuate, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods remained unchanged. The weekly TC for copper smelting remained unchanged. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,972 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 3,094 tons. The social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees remained unchanged. LME lead inventory increased by 650 tons, SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 200 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of low - and high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton. The processing fees of some aluminum products increased. LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,161 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and imported nickel to Wuxi decreased. The prices of nickel ore, nickel - iron, and some stainless steel products remained unchanged, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons, and the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 230 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel inventory increased by 1,165 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 210 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.2%, and the LmeS3 price and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. The near - far month spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The prices of SMM 0 and 1 zinc increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the domestic and imported zinc spot premiums decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloys and zinc oxide increased. The weekly TC for zinc remained unchanged. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The near - far month spread decreased by 130 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price increased by 2,600 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 32 dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory increased by 51 tons, LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased by 16 tons, and those of LME tin decreased by 225 tons. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads (such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [15][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, copper scrap processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are provided [42][44][46]. 3.3 Non - Technical Content - **Team Introduction**: The report introduces the non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has rich experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. They have all achieved good results in research and service [49][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the recent production arrangement of refineries has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted, and the weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [7][9] - The cost side indicates that the loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production is 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.2761%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The refineries have increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7] - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.8%, the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.5509%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 28%. Except for a slight increase in the modified asphalt开工率, the others are either flat or decreased [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 875.78 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [9] - **Other Factors**: On July 21, the Shandong spot price is 3855 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 198 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1319000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - plant inventory is 761000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 210000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% [10] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base - price Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt base - prices from 2020 to 2025 [19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32] 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [37][40] - **Supply - side Analysis**: It involves aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume estimation [44][46][49] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79] - **Demand - side Analysis**: It covers petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), and asphalt开工率 (by type) [80][83][86] - **Supply - demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104][105]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper prices increased, and the weekly K - line closed positive. The 2508 contract reduced positions rapidly. The spot copper price rose to 78,660 yuan, with the Shanghai premium expanding to 175 yuan and the Guangdong premium shrinking to 45 yuan. Technically, after last week's price adjustment, LME copper traded between the MA60 and MA40 moving averages. Traders are advised to hold short positions or try to sell call options with an exercise price of 80,000 yuan and buy put options with an exercise price of 76,000 yuan on the 2508 contract [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated, with the East China spot premium at 110 yuan. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively compared to Monday. Accumulation of inventories is still difficult. After the pre - demand, the decline in demand is not more than seasonal. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation increased by 100 yuan to 19,500 yuan. The demand is weak, but the supply of scrap aluminum in the market is tight. The alumina spot price increase trend has eased but is still in a premium state. The domestic alumina operating capacity has returned to a historical high and is in an oversupply state [3] Zinc - Black prices continued to rebound, concerns about US tariffs eased, and the macro - sentiment improved. The import window remained closed, and the strong external market drove the domestic market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and it is difficult for traders to sell. The supply is expected to increase, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. Shanghai zinc is still considered to face pressure in the rebound, waiting for short - selling opportunities around 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Lead - Both domestic and foreign markets are accumulating inventories. The export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariff issues again, and short - sellers increased positions. The weighted position of Shanghai lead increased to 104,000 lots, and the settled funds reached 1.569 billion yuan. Recycled lead is reluctant to sell at low prices, and the downstream's willingness to buy at low prices has improved. The cost - end support is still strong. Whether Shanghai lead can stop falling at 16,800 yuan/ton needs to be observed [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and spot transactions are weak. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. The inventories of nickel iron, pure nickel, and stainless steel have all increased, but the overall inventory level is still high. Technically, Shanghai nickel still has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions and closed positive. The main contract changed quickly this month, and the 2509 contract has become the main position - holding contract. The spot tin price increased by 3,600 yuan to 265,500 yuan. Technically, it is recommended to use the MA60 moving average as the boundary between strength and weakness. Continue to pay attention to the change of the low inventory of 2,000 tons overseas. Hold previous high - position short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded and reached a high level. The market trading was active. A series of shutdown news maintained market enthusiasm, but there was obvious selling pressure around 70,000 yuan. The total market inventory is high, and traders buy at low prices. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 705 US dollars, with a large rebound from the low level. There is a strong hedging demand for lithium carbonate futures prices in the range of 67,000 - 70,000 yuan. Short - sellers should use position dispersion to defend [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures prices slightly declined, while the spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon continued to rise to 8,850 yuan/ton. The downstream polysilicon is expected to increase demand due to the resumption of production of leading enterprises, and the operating rate of silicone monomer plants has continued to rise. On the supply side, large factories have not resumed production after previous shutdowns, and the weekly output in Xinjiang has continued to decline slightly. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices slightly declined. According to SMM, the expected increase in silicon wafer quotes and cost calculation result in a comprehensive price of 43,870 yuan/ton. The "weak reality" is mainly concentrated in the inventory level. With the resumption of production of some bases of leading enterprises, there may be a slight increase in inventory. Policy expectations are still the main trading logic, and the overall trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On Thursday (July 17), China's A-share market saw all three major indices rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5394 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index strengthened in a volatile manner, closing at 4,034.49, up 27.29 points [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 17, the weighted index of coke showed strength, closing at 1,526.5, up 15.0 points. The weighted index of coking coal regained strength, closing at 935.1 yuan, up 16.5 yuan. In the coke market, the spot price at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. Mainstream steel mills accepted the first price increase proposed by coke enterprises, but coke enterprises were still operating at a loss, with cautious raw material procurement and squeezed production inventory. In the coking coal market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi, increased by 40 yuan to 1,300 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 yuan to 785 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mines were gradually resuming production, and the three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16 after a 5 - day closure, but customs clearance was expected to remain low due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia until July 21 [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed slightly lower in a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract strengthened on Thursday with the support of funds and continued to rise slightly in the night session. ICRA predicted that the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India would see a sugar production of 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season's 29.6 million tons [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand affected rubber tapping, leading to a decrease in raw material supply and an increase in Southeast Asian spot prices. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise in the night session due to the increase in tire factory operating rates and speculation on weather conditions. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year, and in June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [3]. Soybean Meal - On July 17, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the net increase in US soybean export sales in the week ending July 10 was 271,900 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - growing areas reduced the risk of yield reduction, posing a resistance to price increases. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures were strong on July 17. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates led to large soybean meal production, but feed and breeding enterprises' purchases were limited, increasing the supply pressure in the spot market. However, the increase in US soybean prices and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums would support the price from the import cost side [4]. Live Pigs - On July 17, the main live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 14,060 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, leading to more active selling by farmers. The terminal market was in the off - season, with weak demand. The stable recovery of the sow inventory indicated medium - to - long - term supply pressure, and the pig price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - On July 17, palm oil futures maintained a high - level oscillation with a rising bottom and slightly hit a new high. The price closed at 8,796 yuan, up 0.85%. After the US agreed to reduce the tariff on Indonesian palm oil from 32% to 19% (lower than Malaysia's 25%), Indonesia was expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia was still negotiating with the US government to achieve a "win - win" situation [6]. Shanghai Copper - In June, the US PPI was lower than expected while the CPI rose, showing a divergence in inflation between the consumer and production sides. Uncertainties in the US external tariff policy and the President's attitude towards the Fed Chairman affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, the global copper mine supply shortage was difficult to ease in the short term, and the increasing demand from the new energy industry would support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of the US import tariff policy on copper and the increase in bonded - area copper inventory might put pressure on the price. In the short term, Shanghai copper was expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,320 yuan/ton. On July 18, the base - price quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 58 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 17, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 799.5, with the lowest price of 799.5, the highest price of 834, and closed at 833, with an increase of 9,956 lots in positions. It had the largest increase in three months with a significant increase in trading volume. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot prices of radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's log and sawn - timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year, and port shipments decreased. The supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced, but spot trading was weak [7][8][10]. Steel - On July 17, the rb2510 rebar futures contract closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,292 yuan/ton. This week, rebar production continued to decline, inventory slightly increased, and apparent demand significantly decreased. It was the traditional off - season for rebar consumption, with more seasonal maintenance in steel mills and some shifting production to other products. The terminal demand was weak due to low project funds, resulting in a weak market. Currently, the rebar market had weak supply and demand, with slightly increased but still low inventory, and the short - term futures price was expected to move in a narrow range [10]. Alumina - On July 17, the ao2509 alumina futures contract closed at 3,089 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina reached a historical high, and new capacity continued to be released, leading to a significant supply increase exceeding consumption demand. In the third quarter, new capacity would be put into production, and the existing output would reach a new high, with an expected supply surplus. Market inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The increase in warehouse receipts also indicated sufficient physical supply and weakened spot support [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 17, the al2509 Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,415 yuan/ton. Uncertainty about the Fed Chairman's position and the US tariff policy affected market sentiment, weakening the upward momentum of the aluminum price. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic main consumption areas was 492,000 tons, decreasing by 9,000 tons from Monday but increasing by 26,000 tons from the previous Thursday. In the short term, the aluminum price was expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on short positions [1] - L: Continue short positions [1] - PP: Continue short positions [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullbacks [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Slowdown in upward trend [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebounds [2] - Urea: Short - term rebound in a bear market [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price is weak. The supply - demand pattern of most chemical products is weak, with cost support weakening and inventory accumulation in some cases. Some products are affected by policy expectations and new capacity releases [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 0.28%, and SC dropped 0.45% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. Although it is in the consumption peak season, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons. China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.4% from January to June. The EIA data shows that as of the week of July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC +'s expansion cycle, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, it is recommended to lightly short and buy call options for protection. Focus on SC [505 - 525] [5] LPG - **Market situation**: On July 16, the PG main contract closed at 4108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [7] - **Basic logic**: With the production increase of OPEC +, the supply pressure of LPG is increasing. Two PDH plants are planned to restart at the end of the month, providing some support. As of July 11, the LPG commodity volume decreased, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed. Refinery and port inventories increased [8] - **Strategy recommendation**: After the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is high, so it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions. Focus on PG [4000 - 4100] [9] L - **Market situation**: Both futures and spot prices declined. The North China basis was - 64 (down 23 compared to the previous period) [11] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, the 9 - 1 spread has turned negative, and the basis is at a low level. Although recent device maintenance has alleviated supply pressure marginally, 2.05 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production from July to August, with a weak medium - to - long - term outlook. The agricultural film operating rate has increased month - on - month [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on L [7150 - 7300] [12] PP - **Market situation**: The East China basis was 80 (down 14 compared to the previous period). The market is expected to continue to be weak [15] - **Basic logic**: Cost support is weakening, and recent warehouse receipts have been increasing. Enterprises and traders' inventories have decreased this week, but there are more device restart plans in the future. 2 million tons of new capacity are planned to be added in the third quarter, with long - term supply pressure. From January to May, exports increased by 22% year - on - year, and export profits are positive [16] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on PP [6950 - 7100] [16] PVC - **Market situation**: The Changzhou basis was - 94 (up 31 compared to the previous period). The spot price is expected to be weakly sideways [19] - **Basic logic**: Short - term policy expectations have weakened, and trading has returned to the weak fundamental situation. Social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and new capacity is being released. Both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. In July, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the stabilization of coal prices, there is support at the bottom [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. Focus on V [4900 - 5100] [20] PX - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged compared to the previous period), and the PX09 contract closed at 6694 (- 88) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, while overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventories are still relatively high. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+ 5.3) US dollars/ton [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on PX [6650 - 6750] [23] PTA - **Market situation**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (- 20) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 (- 42) yuan/ton [24] - **Basic logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. Downstream polyester production cuts are ongoing, and the terminal weaving operating rate is declining. Inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weakening [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on TA [4650 - 4710] [26] MEG - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4305 (- 20) yuan/ton [27] - **Basic logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing. The demand is expected to weaken, and the polyester operating rate is declining. The social inventory has stopped falling, and the port inventory is low [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on EG [4300 - 4360] [29] Glass - **Market situation**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price corrected, the basis fluctuated narrowly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [32] - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, policies on backward capacity exit and coal - fired production line technological transformation are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. In the short term, due to high - temperature conditions, the market is restricted. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, production has increased slightly, and inventories have continued to decline [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on FG [1060 - 1090] [32] Soda ash - **Market situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price closed down, the main - contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged [34] - **Basic logic**: Although the high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, the impact of policy speculation has weakened, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventories again. The supply is at a high level, and inventory removal is difficult. Downstream support is okay, but terminal consumption is weak [35] - **Strategy recommendation**: Treat it with a wide - range sideways thinking. Focus on SA [1200 - 1230] [2] Caustic soda - **Market situation**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially lowered, the futures price dropped from a high level, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [37] - **Basic logic**: The supply side has a summer maintenance season inventory - removal expectation, and the new capacity is expected to be put into production. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The downstream alumina operating rate has increased, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory has decreased [38] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously. Focus on SH [2460 - 2510] [38] Methanol - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2370 (- 28) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic logic**: Domestic methanol device overhauls are ongoing, but the comprehensive operating load remains relatively high. Overseas devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, and the coastal MTO external - procurement device load has continued to decline. Social inventories are accumulating [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on MA [2345 - 2375] [2] Urea - **Market situation**: The supply is under pressure, with a daily output of nearly 200,000 tons. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has weakened month - on - month, but the fertilizer export growth rate is fast [2] - **Basic logic**: The cost support still exists, and the basis is strong. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is short - term speculation on urea exports [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly go long. Focus on UR [1725 - 1755] [2] Asphalt - **Market situation**: The cost - side oil price has declined, and the raw material supply is sufficient. The supply has decreased slightly, and inventories are accumulating [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with high valuation [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus on BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market situation**: The cost - side prices of crude oil and propane have continued to fall, and the cost support has weakened [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, some PP devices are shut down for maintenance, and new capacity in East China and Shandong is about to be put into production, putting pressure on the supply [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on propylene in the range of [6200 - 6350] [2]