棕榈油周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 菜油表现强势 棕榈油震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨15收于4125林吉特/吨，涨幅 0.36%；棕榈油01合约跌16收于8644元/吨，跌幅0.18%； 豆油01合约涨72收于8256元/吨，涨幅0.88%；菜油01合 约涨390收于9923元/吨，涨幅4.09%；CBOT豆油主连涨 0.85收于50.48美分/磅，涨幅1.71%；ICE油菜籽活跃合 约涨7收于645.7加元/吨，涨幅1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish rebound [2] - PP: Bearish rebound [2] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways bottoming [4] - Urea: Rebound to short [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The core driver for the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with some products facing supply surpluses during the off - season and others having potential demand improvements [2][10][15] - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply surplus and OPEC's production plans; LPG may rebound due to inventory factors; other products' trends are affected by factors such as capacity utilization, demand changes, and cost support [2][10][15] Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: Overnight, international oil prices stabilized, with WTI up 0.26%, Brent up 0.48%, and SC down 2.43%. As of November 7, the US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels [8][9] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the off - season supply surplus and global inventory accumulation. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [10] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC expects non - OPEC regions' crude production to increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. IEA predicts global oil supply growth. OPEC's November report forecasts global crude demand increments [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [445 - 460] [12] LPG - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the PG main contract closed at 4,303 yuan/ton, down 1.06% [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to crude oil. The cost is weak, limiting the upside. The supply has decreased, and the demand has mixed performance. The inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4300 - 4400] [16] L - **Market Quotes**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,818 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [18][19] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired, and the monthly spread is moving towards a positive spread. The supply is loose, and the demand has weak replenishment motivation. The oil price may decline, lacking cost support [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6800 - 6950] [20] PP - **Market Quotes**: The PP2601 closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [23] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak due to cost. The inventory is high, and the demand is insufficient. The oil price may continue to fall [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [24] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The V2601 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: The futures price is at a premium, and the warehouse receipts are at a new high. The market is in a weak fundamental situation during the off - season, but the low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4500 - 4650] [28] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PXN spread is 250.3 (+11.8) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 112.0 (+5.0) dollars/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has increased production, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The cost side has a loose supply - demand pattern for crude oil [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side trade. Pay attention to expanding downstream processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6810 - 6920] [30] PTA - **Market Quotes**: TA05 is at 4,728 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,616 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,664 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side trade at low prices. Pay attention to expanding TA processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4600 - 4670] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: EG05 is at 3,942 yuan/ton, EG11 at 3,848 yuan/ton, and EG01 at 4,019 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3880 - 3960] [36] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Not specifically mentioned in a significant way [39] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the price. The supply side has increased production, and the demand is average. The cost support is weak but may be stable in the fourth quarter [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [39] Urea - **Market Quotes**: UR05 is at 1,734 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,753 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,667 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is high, and the export has maintained a high growth rate. There are upside and downside limits [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about the risk of the price falling after rising. Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1630 - 1655] [44] Natural Gas - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the NG main contract closed at 4.744 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.42% [46] - **Basic Logic**: The demand increases during the heating season as the temperature drops. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply and demand and inventory have certain characteristics [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upside. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.511 - 4.688] [48] Asphalt - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the BU main contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly driven by crude oil. The cost support weakens as the oil price falls. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has decreased [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies vary by commodity, with some markets expected to be volatile and others to trend up or down based on supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance showed prices oscillating strongly. Fundamentals include a pending US House vote on a government - shutdown bill and a Fed official's retirement, with a continued tight supply of copper ore. The trading strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.99% from the previous day. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand (weekly aluminum product start - up rate) is slightly decreasing. With a falling dollar index and overseas supply disruptions, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and inventory changes should be monitored [3]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand comes from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on industry production cuts [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract rose 0.09% from the previous day. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, while overseas supply is increasing. Consumption is in the off - season, but LME inventory decline provides support. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][5]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract rose 1.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand from battery enterprises is slightly improving. Domestic inventory is low. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [3][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 15 yuan/ton. Supply is shrinking as furnace - opening numbers decrease in the southwest, and demand is supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to buy on dips [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract rose 0.05%. Supply is expected to be tight in November, with demand from materials like lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing. It's recommended to buy on dips cautiously and avoid chasing highs, or consider selling put options [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 1530 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing, and downstream product prices are stable. November's production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. With the slow progress of the storage platform, it's recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. The US House vote and a Fed official's retirement are factors, and tin ore supply is tight. The short - term strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset and watch the 300,000 - yuan resistance level [3][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Overnight prices rose significantly, with domestic silver hitting a record high and driving up gold prices. Fed personnel changes, inventory changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are the main factors. It's recommended to buy gold on dips and gradually reduce silver long positions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3030 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous night. Building material demand and production are both decreasing. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and consider shorting the 2601 contract [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 768 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night. Supply and demand are deteriorating marginally, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1208.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous night. Iron - water production is decreasing, and the market is in a long - term premium structure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and South American production is expected to increase. Demand from crushing and exports is improving. It's advisable to focus on the USDA report on Friday, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [8]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose. Corn inventory is low, and demand from deep - processing is strong. New - crop production is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell. Supply in Malaysia is increasing, and demand is also rising. It's expected to continue inventory accumulation in the near - term and enter a seasonal production - reduction period later. The P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5473 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The global sugar supply is expected to be excessive, and the domestic market may follow the downward trend after a short - term rebound. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. Indian cotton production decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic cotton prices oscillated downwards. It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices both fell. Supply pressure is decreasing as production inventory drops, but demand is weakening after Double Eleven. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. Pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace due to new device production and import window closure. Demand is weakening as the agricultural film season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4583, down 0.2%. Supply is increasing, demand is slightly improving, and inventory is high. It's recommended to short or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. Polyester factory load is high, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It's recommended to take profit on long positions and short processing fees on far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.56%. Raw material prices are supportive, and inventory is increasing. It's recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy and watch for raw material supply in the main production areas [11]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1049, down 1.2%. Supply is excessive, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing as new devices are put into operation, and demand is weakening as the peak season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 3981 yuan/ton, and inventory is accumulating. It's recommended to short at high prices on the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply due to the OPEC monthly report. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak. If Russian oil production decline is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it's advisable to short at high prices [11][12]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to improve marginally in the short - term but weaken in the long - term as new devices are put into operation. Demand is weakening. It's recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1215, down 0.9%. Supply is stable, inventory is balanced, and demand from photovoltaic glass is normal. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-12 海外现货升水居高不下 重要数据 库存方面：截至2025-11-11，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.96万吨，较上期变化0.09万吨。截止2025-11-11，LME锌 库存为35300吨，较上一交易日变化400吨。 市场分析 11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外矿TC进一步同步下调，目前冶炼厂对矿端采购需求旺盛，矿端TC有望进一 步下滑。冶炼端开始面临压力，随着TC的大幅度回落，冶炼综合利润被严重压缩，高成本地区目前已经开始面临 综合亏损，冶炼积极性将会被压制，供给端压力有望超预期减小。海外仓单连续几日小幅增长，但库存依旧低位， 仓单风险依旧，现货升水持续高位。国内库存开始回落，难以达到前期预期的累库高度，出口窗口全面打开，后 期存在社会库存季节性明显回落的可能。微观数据几乎全面从利空向利多转变，宏观向好背景依旧不变。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为176.55美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化90元/吨至22660元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic downward pressure in the US is increasing, raising the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are still internal differences within the Fed. Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. - Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner [1]. - The US government shutdown is about to end, risk appetite has increased. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. - The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. - The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. - The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. - The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner due to weak supply - demand drivers [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - According to ADP statistics, from October 1 - 25, the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total loss of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US economic downward pressure increases the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar index has weak upward momentum, and gold is volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. Crude Oil - A Reuters survey of five analysts shows that as of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by about 1.2 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 6 million barrels; US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 1.2 - 4 million barrels. Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the expectation of the end of the US government shutdown has led to three consecutive days of oil price increases. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner. The OPEC and IEA November "Oil Market Monthly Reports" will be released on November 12 and 13 respectively [1]. Silver - The US Senate passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government shutdown. The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the shutdown, and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the Senate - passed temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday. The end of the government shutdown has increased risk appetite. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that in the next step, a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, while continuing to improve the monetary policy framework and strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are both positive for the bond market. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. Hog - According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, up 0.01 point from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from the previous day. The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress was a bit slow and still under pressure, while the slaughter of large - weight hogs by small farmers increased, and the terminal demand was insufficient. The supply exceeded the demand, and the price mainly adjusted weakly. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short - term and will oscillate at the bottom. The breeding side can hedge in a timely manner according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. Soybean Meal - According to Mysteel statistics, on the previous trading day, the total sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous trading day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 125,100 tons, an increase of 39,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the far - month basis sales volume was 189,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 53.51%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous day. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills is slowly recovering, and the crushing volume is at a relatively high level, while the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory limits the upward space of spot prices. The purchasing sentiment of downstream feed enterprises is average, and they mainly replenish inventory based on existing inventory levels. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 3030 - 3090 in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. The implementation of Canada's clean - fuel regulations and local government blending policies has led to a rise in rapeseed oil prices, driving up palm oil prices. Domestically, the basis prices in various regions, especially in South China, have increased rapidly, and the market trading is light, mainly fulfilling previous contracts. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 88,800 tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous week. The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2060 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The domestic weekly methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to resume operation this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous week. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. Short - fiber - The production of Chinese polyester short - fiber this cycle was 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.21%. The average comprehensive production capacity utilization rate during this cycle was 88.37%, a week - on - week increase of 2.74%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber factories on the previous trading day was 41.96%, a decrease of 28.51% from the previous trading day. Supply has increased while demand has remained flat, with a slight inventory build - up this week. After the sales - to - production ratio reached a high, it declined, but the overall inventory pressure is not large. The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49%. The PVC social inventory was 1.0352 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 769 yuan/ton, and the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 465 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 39.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash was 1264 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The weekly production of soda ash was 746,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%. The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. Synthetic Rubber - As of November 11, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 6975 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - polybutadiene rubber of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton. As of November 11, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 237 yuan/ton. Based on the butadiene price, the static cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber was estimated to be 8500 yuan/ton. On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. The raw material side is still under pressure from large domestic supply. On the demand side, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are less than expected. Some enterprises plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. There is a lack of substantial positive factors. The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated in the given rating form, but the analysis implies a bearish view in the medium - term with short - term support [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly rated in the form, but analysis shows short - term support and potential for the spread with high - sulfur fuel oil to widen [2] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with a weak upward/downward trend and poor operability on the trading board [1][3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Views - For the oil market, although there are short - term factors supporting oil prices, considering inventory trends, refinery operations, and the expected loosening of the balance sheet in the first quarter of next year, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] - In the fuel oil market, high - sulfur fuel oil supply is becoming more abundant, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is likely to further widen [2] - The asphalt market is under pressure due to poor demand, slow inventory reduction, and negative fundamental signals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market has improved fundamentals, with reduced supply and increased demand, which supports the LPG futures price [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, global oil inventories decreased, mainly in refined products. Diesel cracking is strong overseas. Considering the recovery of refinery operating rates in Europe and the US after autumn maintenance and the strong refining profit, the low point of diesel inventory is approaching [2] - Since November, the oil price contango and spot premium have weakened again. With the loosest balance sheet period (Q1 next year) yet to come, there is still room for oil prices to fall this year. However, the resolution of the US government shutdown and the intensifying geopolitical game around Russia and Ukraine provide short - term support. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by the cost side. Although supported by geopolitical situations, Russian shipments decreased in October due to facility attacks, but exports from the Middle East increased after the end of the power - generation peak season, and OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, so the overall supply tends to be loose. Import demand support is limited, and the expected early issuance of the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 may further weaken feedstock demand [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support from factors such as the unexpected shutdown of the Al Zour refinery, the adjustment of the Dangote refinery's shipping schedule, and the possible shift of quotas to refined products. The frequent attacks on Russian refineries have pushed up the diesel price, which is transmitted to the low - sulfur fuel oil market through component correlation [2] Asphalt - The shipment volume is worse than expected, falsifying the expectation of rush - work demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and indicating that demand is lower than the same period last year. Commercial inventory reduction has slowed down this week, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened since the inflection point in late October. The basis of the lowest deliverable spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China relative to the main asphalt contract has shown obvious differentiation, with high bases in East and South China and a negative basis in Shandong. The market is bearish, and the asphalt price is under significant pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG has shown a narrow - range oscillation today and is relatively strong among oil futures. In the latest week, both the commercial volume and arrivals of LPG have decreased. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the combustion demand has improved due to significant cooling in many places. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG futures price [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - PTA: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as weak demand, high inventory, and cost - profit imbalances. Different products have different trends and investment strategies, mainly including anti - arbitrage operations and attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [2][3][5] Grouped by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures weakened slightly during the day. International oil price decline dampened market sentiment, and demand was hard to boost significantly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures consolidated weakly. For polyethylene, trading volume needed to be released; for polypropylene, the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of benzene futures fluctuated narrowly, and the market was in short - term consolidation with medium - term negative factors. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - Styrene futures consolidated narrowly. The cost support was insufficient, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. PTA might accumulate inventory in the future, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Ethylene glycol supply was expected to increase, with a continued inventory accumulation expectation, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern, but the profit was slightly squeezed. Its price would fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. High port inventory and weak demand suppressed the market, and the market was expected to be weak [6] - Urea futures rose significantly. The market was boosted by export news, but caution was needed when chasing up [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory and ran at a low level due to high supply and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the supply was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose slightly. The supply was high, and the inventory was at a high level. It was expected to be hard to decline in the short term [8] - Glass ran weakly. Cost increase limited the decline space, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year rush - to - work [8]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals (aluminum) by New Era Futures Research, dated November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short term, alumina is expected to run weakly and fluctuate, while Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations. In the long term, in the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, and alumina will run weakly and fluctuate before large - scale production cuts [17] Summary by Directory Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of October 31, the port inventory of bauxite was 27.3584 million tons, a decrease of 359,300 tons from the previous week. As of the end of September, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 23.86 million tons, at a historical high [6] - Overseas bauxite supply is still sufficient, and with high inventory, the price of Guinea bauxite has declined recently, weakening cost support [16] Alumina Supply - As of November 7, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.25%, slightly down from the previous week. The total inventory of alumina was 4.788 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous week [9] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, but the weekly output decreased by 4,000 tons to 1.735 million tons due to the reduction of the roasting furnace load rate of some enterprises. The supply - over - demand pressure of alumina still exists, and it is expected to continue to run weakly and fluctuate [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.24%, remaining at a high level. As of September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.644 million tons, imports were 246,800 tons, and inventory was 591,000 tons [12] - As of November 7, LME aluminum inventory was 548,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous week; SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,300 tons, a decrease of 239 tons from the previous week; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6,675 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous week. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend this week [14] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. Due to environmental protection restrictions, high aluminum prices, and the end of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to weaken, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, the demand support for electrolytic aluminum is weakened, but the supply is expected to be tight due to overseas production cuts, and it is expected to run strongly with fluctuations [16] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and fluctuates; Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations. - Medium - and long - term: Pay attention to the pace of US dollar interest rate cuts. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations; alumina runs weakly and fluctuates before large - scale production cuts [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. After the reduction of interest rates and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes may be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot TC of copper ore stays at a low level. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper prices gradually moves up. The downstream demand for copper is resilient, and there are still many purchase orders after price declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not substantially relieved, the demand is weak, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. Pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea's bauxite, the impact of domestic environmental policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality in the short - term. The 21500 yuan/ton pressure level is crucial. If the inventory continues to accumulate, there is a risk of price correction to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise and then fall. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the demand shows a mild recovery. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum, procurement costs, and inventory depletion [4]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. The supply of zinc is generally loose, but the subsequent production increase may be limited. The demand has no extraordinary performance, and the LME's low inventory causes squeezing risks, which support zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and relatively strong in the short - term, with the main reference range of 22300 - 23000 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement of supply within the year is limited. The demand is weak, and the contribution of new fields such as AI and photovoltaics is small. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Pay attention to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a weak and volatile state. The macro - sentiment is weak, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is affected by the rainy season and typhoons, while that from Indonesia is relatively loose. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for ternary materials has limited sustainability. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is running weakly. The supply pressure still exists, the demand is not significantly boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12500 - 13000. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel supply [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is weakly volatile. Although the short - term fundamentals are strong, the trading logic has switched, and the news and capital drives are stronger. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main reference range of 78000 - 82000 yuan [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.45% to 85335 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The premiums of other copper types also changed to varying degrees. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.20%, and the import profit and loss improved by 163.21 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.94 million tons (-2.62%), and in September, the import volume increased by 7 million tons (26.50%). The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased by 7.67%, and the social inventory increased by 8.46% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.65% to 21300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different regions of alumina showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some decreasing. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 170 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39%, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, and in September, the import volume increased by 13.57%. The开工 rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and its regional varieties decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.23% to 0.47%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions decreased. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 35 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The开工 rates of recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while that of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.35% to 22500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 21.34 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, and in September, the import volume decreased by 11.61%, while the export volume increased by 696.78%. The开工 rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, while that of die - casting zinc alloy decreased slightly. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 1.10% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.44% to 281300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 12.16%. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 0.34%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the refined tin production decreased by 31.71%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.65%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.11% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.70% to 120950 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 6.68%. - **Electrolytic Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrolytic nickel decreased to varying degrees. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.48% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, with the Foshan price decreasing by 0.78%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 2.35%. - **Raw Material Price**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, with the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreasing by 0.22%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.55% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the prices of CIF battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea also decreased. The lithium - spodumene concentrate price decreased by 1.18%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2511 - 2601 increased by 260 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, the demand increased by 8.70%, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90%. The capacity increased by 0.80%, and the开工 rate increased by 1.82% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures may weaken to 4000 ringgit due to potential negative impacts from MPOA production growth and a significant decline in exports in the first five days of November. After the release of the MPOB supply report, it may gradually stop falling and start to recover. In China, it may test the 8500 yuan support level. - CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, demand is weak, and the basis quote has limited fluctuation space [1]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. Chinese sugar prices are also under pressure but are relatively resistant to decline. The spot market remains tepid, and prices will generally fluctuate at a low level [4]. Corn Industry - In the short - term, corn prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and farmers are reluctant to sell. In the long - term, imports remain low, demand is resilient, and policy regulation will support prices [5]. Cotton Industry - The cost of new cotton provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. Downstream demand is weak, but finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [8]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices may be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually start to rise, and are expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [10]. Meal Industry - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is at a high level, but the cost - side support is strengthening. The downside space is limited, and the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [12]. Pig Industry - The pig market supply is relatively loose, and pig prices have weakened. However, the slowdown in the planned November slaughter volume may boost prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 inverse spread and operate with caution [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu Grade - 1 soybean oil was 8420 yuan, down 0.48% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was 312 yuan, down 22.44% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8616 yuan on November 5, down 0.30%. The futures price of P2601 was 8590 yuan, down 0.23%. The basis was - 46 yuan, up 13.04% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade - 3 rapeseed oil was 9750 yuan on November 5, down 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9407 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis was 343 yuan, up 4.89% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan, up 10.59%; that of palm oil was - 106 yuan, down 32.50%; and that of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan, down 4.96% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of sugar 2601 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; sugar 2605 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 0.70%; ICE raw sugar was 14.12 cents/pound, down 0.63% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5700 yuan, down 0.18%; in Kunming was 5660 yuan, down 0.35%. The Nanning basis was 307 yuan, up 10.04%; the Kunming basis was 267 yuan, up 7.23% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%; sales were 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 41.20% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On November 5, the price of corn 2601 was 2134 yuan, down 0.05%. The basis was 16 yuan, up 6.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan, down 4.12% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2451 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was 59 yuan, down 10.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 104 yuan, unchanged [5]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of cotton 2605 was 13620 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; cotton 2601 was 13612 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The ICE US cotton was 65.07 cents/pound, down 0.12% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14627 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14825 yuan, down 0.11% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 68.4%; the industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10.00 million tons, up 42.9% [8]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3217 yuan/500KG, up 2.32%; the 01 - contract was 3385 yuan/500KG, up 1.44% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.88 yuan/jin, up 0.22%. The basis was - 333 yuan/500KG, down 25.10% [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, up 5.66%; the price of culled chickens was 4.11 yuan/jin, down 4.20% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3030 yuan, down 0.66%. The futures price of M2601 was 3073 yuan, up 1.92%. The basis was - 43 yuan, down 222.86% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2550 yuan, up 0.79%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2537 yuan, up 1.60%. The basis was 13 yuan, down 60.61% [12]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans was 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the soybean - 1 main contract was 4123 yuan, up 1.68%. The basis was - 203 yuan, down 50.37% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the pig 2605 contract was 12040 yuan/ton, up 1.52%; the 2601 contract was 11945 yuan/ton, up 2.23%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 95 yuan, up 45.71% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 11800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Shandong was 12100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 11400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 159258, up 0.79%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.70 yuan/kg, up 1.25% [15].