Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for methanol is "Bullish" [7] Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol will likely be in a relatively strong position in the second half of 2025. Supply - side production is less likely to exceed expectations, and there are still factors disturbing the supply such as environmental protection restrictions and geopolitical issues. On the demand side, although the prices and profits of downstream products are expected to face pressure, the high - operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Potential geopolitical disturbances and concerns about Iranian natural gas supply may affect imports and port inventories, leading to a bullish outlook [5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Review - In the first half of 2025 (before the Israel - Iran conflict), methanol futures prices showed an overall downward trend, mainly due to upstream cost collapse and demand - side concerns. The domestic coal price dropped from 760 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 620 yuan/ton at the end of June, compared with around 850 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Methanol downstream demand was weak, with the traditional demand sectors like dimethyl ether, MTBE, and BDO having a downward - trending operation rate. MTO, although with a high operation rate, was in a loss state [16]. 2. Supply - In the second half of the year, the cost side will have limited incremental impact on the overall fundamentals. Coal prices are expected to remain low, so the profit of coal - to - methanol is likely to stay high, and the operation rate will probably remain strong. The market capacity growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be limited (about 3 - 5%). Although the probability of maintenance increases, the operation rate will still be at a high level. It is expected that the production growth rate of methanol in the second half of the year will be 4% [21][24][25]. 3. Demand - The profit of MTO is likely to face long - term pressure and fall into a difficult situation. However, MTO may continue to maintain a high operation rate in the second half of the year due to the synergistic effect of integrated plants. Traditional downstream industries have their profits compressed, which may cause a certain decline in the operation load. For example, dimethyl ether is in the stage of capacity replacement and clearance, formaldehyde is in a situation of oversupply, and MTBE has a high inventory pressure. In emerging demand, DMC's demand support may strengthen in the third quarter, and the demand for methanol as fuel is expected to expand [32][43][51]. 4. Imports - In the second half of the year, many factors may limit the overall increase in imports. Considering the uncertainty of the regional situation, seasonal gas restrictions, and plant load - reduction expectations at the end of the year, the import volume may remain at a historical low. Under the neutral assumption of geopolitical conflict alleviation, the import volume in the second half of the year is expected to reach about 6.5 million tons; under the extreme assumption of Iran completely restricting supply, the import volume may be about 3 million tons [70]. 5. Inventory - The inland inventory is expected to remain at a historical low in the second half of the year due to the increased probability of centralized maintenance and limited new capacity release. The port inventory may decline under the pressure of the import side, and the overall inventory accumulation expectation is limited. It is predicted that the year - end social inventory will be at a historical low of 2.16 million tons [74][78]. 6. Investment Advice - Methanol prices are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile performance. On the supply side, the high operation rate of coal - to - methanol is expected to continue, but the maintenance expectation may affect futures prices. On the demand side, although the profit of MTO and traditional downstream industries is under pressure, the high operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Considering potential geopolitical disturbances and seasonal factors, imports are likely to remain low, and port inventory accumulation is limited. The price is expected to be supported during the third - quarter maintenance period, with the lower support around 2300 yuan and the upper limit around 2600 yuan [81].

Group 1 - National fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with investment in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increasing by 22.8% [1] - The green transition of the economy is creating new demand, becoming a significant driving force in the investment market [1] - The green ammonia project in Inner Mongolia is designed to exceed one million tons of production capacity, utilizing clean energy sources like wind and solar [3][5] Group 2 - The green ammonia project marks the entry of China's green hydrogen and ammonia industry into large-scale commercial operation, promoting local consumption of wind and solar resources [5] - The project has received the world's first "ISCC Renewable Ammonia Certificate," opening up international markets for green ammonia products, with global demand expected to reach 200 million tons [9] - The project is strategically located near Jinzhou Port, facilitating international sales to markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe [11] Group 3 - The construction of a large-scale wind and solar base in Hami, Xinjiang, has completed the topping of a 219-meter heat-absorbing tower, with a total investment of 4.696 billion yuan [13] - The project is expected to generate 2.9 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, enough to supply power to 5.8 million households [15] - The investment direction is shifting towards smart manufacturing, digital infrastructure, and green energy, with local government bond issuance exceeding 550 billion yuan, a 57% year-on-year increase [17]

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil supply-demand outlook is poor, and the expectation of oversupply weighs on oil prices, but geopolitical tensions support it. The development of "reciprocal tariffs" and Trump's uncertain actions on tariffs bring risks to market expectations [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined again, and the aromatics entering the gasoline pool is restricted. The short - flow PX plants have restarted due to profit recovery [2] - The PXN has widened due to the maintenance of several domestic PX plants and the tight supply in the spot market. The continuation of the tight supply - demand situation of PX depends on PTA maintenance and new plant commissioning [2] - The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester load is expected to decline in July [3] - The PF fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The PR processing fee is expected to recover in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures show toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][54][63][66][70] PF Detailed Data - Figures show 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [74][76][84][88][89] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [91][97][101][103]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting investors to pay attention to the outcome of tariff policy negotiations [4]. 2. Core Views - The market is in a volatile state, with the crude oil supply-demand outlook being unfavorable, which exerts pressure on oil prices. However, geopolitical tensions provide some support. The gasoline cracking spread has retreated, and the demand for gasoline blending is not promising. The export of Korean aromatic blending materials to the US has declined, and the short - process PX plants are restarting due to profit recovery [1]. - PX supply and demand remain tight due to recent plant maintenance, and the PXN spread is widening. The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is slightly decreasing, and the polyester load is expected to decline in July [1][2]. - The short - fiber (PF) fundamentals are acceptable, but downstream demand is weakening. The bottle - chip (PR) processing fee is expected to recover to some extent, but the upside is limited [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [8][9][11]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the start - up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][32]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures are provided for PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [45][47][57]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - regenerated spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, production profit, and inventory days, as well as polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, processing fee, and inventory days [68][78][82]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, export processing fee, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle - chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle - chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [85][93][96].

能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 证券研究报告 原油周报：OPEC+或将在八月继续增产 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别68.2/66.3美元/桶，较上周分别-0.2/+0.6美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.2/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比 +408/+385/+24/-149万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1343万桶/天，环比0万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周425台，环比-7台。美国活跃压裂 车队本周179部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1711万桶/天，环比+12万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为94.9%，环比+0.2pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation remains unchanged. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than the supply side, and crude oil is expected to enter a state of oversupply [2] - In terms of gasoline and aromatics, the US gasoline crack has retreated again recently. Against the background of new energy substitution, the upside space of the gasoline crack spread is limited. The blending oil demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending oil demand at home and abroad can basically be met by naphtha, which limits the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2] - For PX, several domestic PX units are under maintenance recently, and the supply and demand side remains tight. With the high downstream PTA start - up and the new PTA production in the third quarter, PXN is expected to be supported [2][5] - PTA has no major fundamental contradictions, but there is an expectation of weakening on the demand side due to the bottle - chip maintenance plan. Attention should be paid to the cost and demand support [5] - For PF, the short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, and most of them purchase on a just - in - time basis. Attention should be paid to the cost - side support [3] - For PR, the current bottle - chip profit is still low. With the gradual implementation of production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the start - up of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [46][48][57] VII. PF Detailed Data - It presents the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][68][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's electricity consumption structure is undergoing a milestone change, with the tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption accounting for 50% of the marginal increase, leading to a significant decrease in the correlation between electricity demand and economic growth [1] - The elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption has increased from around 1 to 1.3-1.4 since 2018, indicating a shift in the electricity consumption structure, with the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption becoming more prominent [1] - The peak pressure for thermal power from renewable energy substitution may have already passed, with coal prices expected to rebound and establish a new bottom at 620-650 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the total electricity consumption growth was only 2.5%, primarily due to a warm winter affecting urban and rural residential electricity consumption, which grew only 1.5% compared to 10.6% in 2024 [2] - The recovery of urban and rural residential electricity consumption in April and May indicates that Q1 may represent the bottom for annual electricity consumption growth [2] - The mid-term pressure on thermal power is expected to peak in 2025 due to the historical high of renewable energy installations in 2024 and the impact of new policies on solar power [2] Group 3 - The coal market's fundamentals are becoming clearer, with prices starting to rise as of June 20, reflecting an improvement in the supply-demand balance since May [3] - The overall coal supply is expected to decrease slightly throughout the year, with domestic production showing a significant decline in April and May compared to Q1 [3] - The coal price is anticipated to rebound during the summer peak electricity demand, establishing a bottom at 620-650 yuan/ton [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and the basic chemicals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The energy structure transition is accelerating, and China's oil demand is entering a "platform period" with a projected stable demand of 760-770 million tons from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%-0.6% [14][16]. - The growth engine is shifting from "fuel-driven" to "material-driven," with the total oil demand expected to reach 800-820 million tons by 2027, growing at a rate of 0.9%-1.3% [14][34]. - The electrification in the transportation sector is significantly impacting fuel consumption, with gasoline and diesel demand expected to peak in 2024 and enter a downward trend [15][23]. - The chemical raw materials sector is becoming a new engine for oil demand growth, supported by domestic demand recovery and export-driven growth [15][16]. Summary by Sections Energy Structure Transition - China's oil demand is projected to stabilize at 760-770 million tons from 2025 to 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%-0.6% [14][34]. - The shift in growth drivers from fuel to materials is evident, with chemical raw materials expected to contribute significantly to oil demand [14][16]. Transportation Sector Impact - The electrification of vehicles is leading to a direct impact on fuel consumption, with gasoline and diesel demand expected to peak in 2024 [15][23]. - The demand for aviation fuel is expected to grow moderately due to the recovery in air travel and fleet expansion [15][16]. Chemical Raw Materials Demand - The chemical raw materials sector is expected to drive oil demand growth, with increasing domestic demand and high-end product import substitution [15][16]. - The self-sufficiency rate of olefins is improving, while the demand for aromatics is expected to grow rapidly due to structural supply-demand gaps [15][16]. Refining Industry Outlook - The refining industry is expected to benefit from the optimization of supply structures and the gradual elimination of outdated capacities [16]. - Major refining companies like Sinopec and Hengli Petrochemical are expected to gain from these trends, with long-term investment opportunities emerging as oil prices stabilize [16][34].

Group 1 - The core argument presented by the expert Carol is that if Israel attacks Iran's oil facilities, it would significantly harm China, which relies on Iran for 12% of its oil supply, particularly affecting refineries in Shandong that depend on Iranian oil for 95% of their needs [1] - The suggestion overlooks critical factors, such as Iran's potential retaliation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, affecting 30% of the world's oil supply and impacting countries like Japan and South Korea that rely on this route for 90% and 88% of their oil imports respectively [3] - China has diversified its oil supply sources, with increased imports from Canada and strategic reserves that can last for three months, along with collaborations in renewable energy projects with Saudi Arabia, indicating preparedness for potential disruptions [3][5] Group 2 - Iran's economy heavily relies on oil revenue, which constitutes over 60% of its fiscal income, making it unlikely for Iran to risk severing ties with China, especially given their significant trade agreements [5] - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, oppose Israel's potential actions against Iran, fearing retaliation that could affect their oil fields, while the U.S. is also concerned about rising oil prices impacting its economy [5][7] - The modern energy landscape indicates that simply cutting off oil supplies does not guarantee victory in geopolitical conflicts, as China's diversified supply chain and strategic reserves create a safety net against potential disruptions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, primarily due to reduced trading activities in the Zhuji region and increased credit impairment losses. Meeting Procedures - The annual shareholder meeting will ensure orderly conduct and efficiency, allowing shareholders to exercise their rights to speak, inquire, and vote [1][2]. - Voting will occur both on-site and through an online system, with specific timeframes outlined for participation [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 1.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 30.32% compared to 2023 [22][25]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -300 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 54.35 million yuan year-on-year [25]. - Basic earnings per share were reported at -0.64 yuan, down from -0.52 yuan in the previous year [22]. Business Segment Analysis - The bulk trading segment generated revenue of approximately 943 million yuan, down 30.91% year-on-year [26]. - Retail sales of refined oil decreased by 15.33%, with revenue of about 390 million yuan [26]. - The lithium carbonate segment saw a dramatic decline in revenue, with a 90.07% drop, generating only 8.73 million yuan [26]. Operational Highlights - The company focused on optimizing operations and cost control in traditional energy and venture capital sectors while upgrading its lithium carbonate production line [7][9]. - The property leasing segment maintained a high occupancy rate of over 90%, with EBITDA reaching approximately 1.95 million yuan [9]. Internal Control and Governance - The supervisory board conducted three meetings during the reporting period, ensuring compliance with laws and regulations [16]. - The internal control evaluation report indicated significant deficiencies, prompting the company to implement corrective measures [18][19]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance safety management and operational efficiency while exploring new market opportunities and diversifying its business model [10][11][14]. - Emphasis will be placed on innovation and resource integration to adapt to changing market conditions and improve overall performance [11][12].