Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity of dividend funds towards the end of the year, driven by the "calendar effect" where low-volatility dividend strategies tend to outperform high-growth strategies in December [1] - Historical data shows that since 2015, the China Securities Dividend Total Return Index has had a winning rate of over 50% in December, with rates reaching as high as 70%-90% in other months like April, May, and November [1] - Institutional investors are actively increasing their holdings in bank stocks, which are considered stable dividend assets, thus boosting the overall interest in the dividend sector [1] Group 2 - For investors looking to capitalize on dividend funds, the cash dividend rate is a crucial indicator of a fund's quality, reflecting the health of the underlying companies and the fund's ability to generate cash returns [3] - The top dividend funds based on cash dividend rates show that several funds from Southern and Wan Jia have rates exceeding 15%, indicating strong performance in terms of cash returns [4] - Notably, funds that offer monthly dividends provide more predictable cash flow for investors, suggesting stable underlying asset profitability [4] Group 3 - Among actively managed funds, the E Fund Kexiang has the highest unit dividend payout of 0.46 yuan, showcasing its strong performance since its inception in 2008 [5] - The fund's net asset value has exceeded 6 yuan, and it has shown impressive growth this year, making it a standout in the dividend fund category [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a phase characterized by "slowing slope and mean reversion," making low-volatility dividend funds a noteworthy foundational choice for investors [1][3]. Market Analysis - Near the 4000-point mark, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of slowing slope and high-level fluctuations rather than rapid increases [3]. - The total market capitalization at 4000 points exceeds 100 trillion yuan, doubling from approximately 50-60 trillion yuan a decade ago, indicating a need for greater trading volume to support price increases [3]. - The investor structure has fundamentally changed, with institutional holdings now accounting for about 50% of the A-share market, compared to a 90% retail penetration a decade ago [3]. Investment Strategy - The core of dividend investment lies in selecting stocks with high dividend yields, typically above 4% [7]. - The selection logic for low-volatility indices differs from regular dividend indices, employing a dual screening process to identify stocks with both high dividends and low volatility [12]. - The principle of "buying low is better than chasing high" is crucial for enhancing the investment experience in dividend indices, advising against purchases when deviation rates are too high [15]. Quantitative Evidence - Historical data shows that in the fourth quarter, dividend low-volatility styles tend to outperform growth styles, with a less than 25% chance of the top-performing style in Q3 continuing to lead in Q4 [4]. - The price ratio between technology and dividend indices reached a ten-year extreme in October, indicating a potential mean reversion as funds shift towards dividend stocks [4]. - A quantitative analysis from 2010 to present indicates that sectors with over 20% holdings by public funds are likely to underperform in the following six months, suggesting a potential shift of funds towards low-volatility dividend strategies [5]. Fund Characteristics - Dividend funds can be categorized into three types: bond-like dividends, cyclical dividends, and consumer dividends, with specific strategies for rotation among these categories [9]. - The average dividend yield of the 中证800红利低波动指数 is 4.48%, with a three-year average yield of 5.39%, significantly higher than the 中证800 index [18]. Future Outlook - Short-term (now to February 2026): The mean reversion logic suggests that low-volatility dividend strategies are worth attention due to high valuations in the technology sector [22]. - Mid-term: New regulations on public fund performance benchmarks may lead to increased allocations towards bond-like dividend sectors [23]. - Long-term: Policies requiring state-owned insurance companies to allocate a portion of new premiums to A-shares will likely favor low-volatility dividend strategies, providing a supportive funding environment [23].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "slowing slope, mean reversion" phase, making dividend low-volatility funds a worthy focus for foundational investment choices [4][7]. Market Analysis - The market at around 4000 points has a total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan, compared to approximately 50-60 trillion yuan a decade ago, indicating a need for greater trading volume to support price levels [8]. - The investor structure has fundamentally changed, with institutional holdings now accounting for about 50% of the total market capitalization, compared to a 90% retail penetration a decade ago [8]. Mean Reversion Evidence - Calendar effects show that in December or the fourth quarter, dividend low-volatility styles typically outperform growth styles, with a less than 25% chance that the top-performing style in Q3 will continue to lead in Q4 [9]. - The price ratio between technology and dividend indices reached a ten-year extreme in October, indicating a potential mean reversion as funds shift towards dividend stocks [9]. - Public fund quarterly report effects suggest that when a sector's holdings exceed 20%, it often underperforms in the following six months, indicating a potential shift of funds towards low-volatility dividend strategies [10]. Dividend Investment Strategy - Dividend investment focuses on high dividend yield stocks, typically selecting those with yields above 4% [12]. - Dividend funds generally distribute dividends, with frequencies ranging from annual to quarterly, depending on the fund's contract [13][14]. - The dividend yield is a critical indicator for selecting dividend funds, with higher yields indicating better value [14]. Stock Selection Logic - The low-volatility index employs a dual screening process, first filtering for high dividend stocks and then selecting those with the lowest volatility, enhancing the potential for long-term excess returns [19]. - Different dividend indices, such as CSI 800 and CSI 300, have distinct selection criteria based on their respective market segments [21]. Investment Timing and Strategy - The key to improving the investment experience in dividend indices is to follow the principle of "buying low is better than chasing high," avoiding purchases when the deviation from the moving average is excessive [22]. - The current market environment favors dividend strategies due to a decline in risk appetite, with high dividend stocks becoming more attractive as a stable investment option [24]. Recommended Products - The XinYuan CSI 800 Dividend Low-Volatility ETF is highlighted for its strong performance, high dividend yield, and favorable risk-return profile, making it suitable for both conservative and growth-oriented investors [27][28]. Long-term Outlook - Short-term mean reversion, mid-term adjustments in public fund allocations, and long-term inflows from insurance capital into dividend low-volatility strategies create a favorable environment for these investments [31].

临近年末，港股高股息资产关注度攀升！广发证券最新研究显示，12月至次年1月中旬，港股红利策略上涨概率超90%。 二级市场上，资金已悄然布局——港股红利低波ETF（520550）连续9日吸金5500万元，其标的指数"两高两低"特征引发市场关 注。 | 1.250 -0.006 -0.48% | | | EXSINING IT U DOLED W | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE CNY 13:58:51 交易中 查看L2全景 | | | | T+0 融 / Q + | | 净值走势 招商恒生港股通高股息低 | | | 申购赎回允许情况 | 申购赎回皆允许 | | 委比 | 5.19% 委差 | 4882 | T日预估现金差额 | 24.34元 | | 卖五 | 1.254 | 58万 | T-1日单位申赎资产 | 628869.39元 | | 卖叫 | 1.253 | 54万 | | | | 三 | 1.252 | 193万 | 近5日净流入 | 单位(万元) | | 卖二 | 1.251 | 152万 | | 1189 | | 菜一 | 1.250 | 101 ...

12月2日，港股高股息板块持续走强。截至10时28分，表征板块的港股红利低波ETF(520550)放量涨 1.54%，截至12月1日，该基金获资金连续8日净流入，累计超4300万，年初以来累计净流入超8.5亿，最 新规模约12亿创历史新高。 分析认为，临近年末，公募基金等追求相对收益的资金或将进入资产再平衡的关键窗口，部分机构可能 减持估值偏高、波动较大的成长类资产，转而配置具备较高股息的港股红利板块，以增强组合防御性。 港股市场红利板块通常于每年12月至次年1月中旬迎来显著的日历效应。 | 库号 | 代码 | 名称 | 成交全额 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | F | 520550 | 港股红利低波ETF | 3137.19万 | 1.54% | | 2 | 513 | 但生 | 4258.66万 | 1.46% | | 3 | 159 | 恒生 | 6808.33万 | 1.42% | | 4 | 52C | 灌 | 1937.02万 | 1.36% | ...

今日早盘（25/12/2），港股银行、非银金融、煤炭、石油石化等高股息板块集体上涨。在当前经济弱 复苏、海外流动性及国内政策仍存不确定性的环境下，港股红利类资产的防御属性有望持续吸引资金关 注。 （数据来源：Wind） 截至最新（25/12/1），港股通红利ETF（513530）自25年10月28日以来连续24个交易日均实现资金净流 入，累计吸金7.78亿元，推动其基金规模连续9周（25/9/27-25/11/28）正增长后攀升至28.91亿元，创下 阶段性新高；交投活跃度也显著升温，最新交易日（25/12/1）成交额放量至1.85亿元，较前一交易日增 长153%，同期资金净流入大幅增长245%。 （数据来源：Wind、交易所，规模前高日为2025/8/6；25/12/1成交额、净流入分别为1.85亿元、0.69亿 元，25/11/28成交额、净流入分别为0.73亿元、0.20亿元） 港股红利类资产之所以受到资金关注，离不开其在低利率环境下愈发凸显的较高股息优势。港股通红利 ETF（513530）跟踪的港股通高股息（CNY）指数近一年股息率来到5.63%，不仅与同期1.82%的10年 期国债收益率存在明显利差 ...

x 大大基金 链接您与财富 20年数据透视 这些板块或成12月主线机遇 复盘2005年至2024年12月份申万一级行业表现,从上涨概率来看,家 用电器、银行、食品饮料、社会服务、通信、石油石化、商贸零售7个 板块在12月实现上涨的概率均超过60%。从涨幅均值看,非银金融以 5.85%的平均涨幅居首,银行、食品饮料、家用电器等行业紧随其后。 | | 指数名称 | 涨幅均值 | 上涨概率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 家用电器 | 4.30% | 80% | | 2 | 銀行 | 5.08% | ୧5% | | 3 | 食品饮料 | 4.86% | ୧୧% | | 4 | 社会服务 | 4.27% | ୧୮% | | 5 | 道信 | 3.77% | ୧୮% | | 6 | 石油石化 | 2.56% | ୧୮% | | 7 | 商贸零售 | 2.26% | ୧୮% | | 8 | 美容护理 | 2.81% | 60% | | 9 | 农林牧渔 | 2.44% | 60% | | 10 | 煤炭 | 2.01% | 60% | | 11 | 有色金属 | 1.66% | 60% | ...

x 大大基金 链接您与财富 20年数据透视 这些板块或成12月主线机遇 复盘2005年至2024年12月份申万一级行业表现,从上涨概率来看,家 用电器、银行、食品饮料、社会服务、通信、石油石化、商贸零售7个 板块在12月实现上涨的概率均超过60%。从涨幅均值看,非银金融以 5.85%的平均涨幅居首,银行、食品饮料、家用电器等行业紧随其后。 | | 指数名称 | 涨幅均值 | 上涨概率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 家用电器 | 4.30% | 80% | | 2 | 銀行 | 5.08% | ୧5% | | 3 | 食品饮料 | 4.86% | ୧୧% | | 4 | 社会服务 | 4.27% | ୧୮% | | 5 | 道信 | 3.77% | ୧୮% | | 6 | 石油石化 | 2.56% | ୧୮% | | 7 | 商贸零售 | 2.26% | ୧୮% | | 8 | 美容护理 | 2.81% | 60% | | 9 | 农林牧渔 | 2.44% | 60% | | 10 | 煤炭 | 2.01% | 60% | | 11 | 有色金属 | 1.66% | 60% | ...

另一方面，在当前经济弱复苏、海外流动性及国内政策仍存不确定性的环境下，港股红利类资产的 防御属性也持续吸引资金关注。Wind数据显示，港股通红利ETF（513530）近一个月（25/10/28- 25/11/28）每个交易日均实现资金净流入，累计吸金7.09亿元，推动其基金规模连续9周（25/9/27- 25/11/28）正增长后攀升至28.02亿元，创下阶段性新高；交投活跃度也在持续提升，11月份日均成交额 达1.22亿元，较2025年1-10月的日均成交额增长65%。 港股红利类资产之所以持续吸金，离不开其在低利率环境下愈发凸显的较高股息优势。港股通红利 ETF（513530）跟踪的港股通高股息(CNY)指数近一年股息率来到5.66%，不仅与同期1.82%的10年期国 债收益率存在明显利差，也超越部分A股和港股主流红利类指数，股息率吸引力持续凸显。 同时，较突出的股息率优势也赋予港股红利类资产在震荡市中呈现"攻守兼备"的特性。截至最新 （25/11/28），港股通红利ETF（513530）跟踪的港股通高股息(CNY)指数近一年累计涨幅达35.44%， 不仅领先于同期中证红利（8.43%）、深证红利（5.5 ...

广发证券发布研报称，港股通高股息全收益指数即将迎来一年中日历效应最强的时候(12月-次年1月中旬)，该阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益的概率大、收益 率高。当前建议关注港股通高股息的配置机会，可能会是一个潜在的岁末年初增加收益的方式。2014年至今，12月-1月中旬，相对于300全收益、中证红 利全收益、恒生指数全收益，胜率均是82%，绝对收益的胜率为91%，并且当前成交额占比仅为6.1%，拥挤度处于历史相对较低位置，可能是再布局机 会。 广发证券主要观点如下： 港股通高股息全收益指数即将迎来一年中日历效应最强的时候(12月-次年1月中旬)，该阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益的概率大、收益率高。 (4)VS恒生指数全收益：超额收益的概率为81.8%，中位数和均值为1.0%和1.6%。跑输是由于20年末、22年末腾讯的超预期上涨。 | 【港股通高股息】上涨/下跌概率最大区间 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 中位数 | 均值 | 2014 | 2015 | 12月-次年1月中旬 | Hotels | | | | | ...