Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices broke through and moved upward this week. With supply disruptions and strong underlying support, attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly and internal - external structures from September to October and potential squeeze risks [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly. With expected inventory depletion in September and a low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to the far - month monthly and internal - external reverse spreads [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound with the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and be in a short - position configuration in the medium and long term. Internal - external positive spreads can be held, and monthly positive spreads can be noted [2][3]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average. With the cooling of macro - level anti - involution sentiment and the ongoing situation in Indonesia, continuous attention is needed [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the Indonesian demonstration incident [7]. - Lead prices oscillated this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level oscillation next week and may test the 17,000 mark [9]. - Tin prices oscillated upward this week. With short - term supply - demand weakness, attention should be paid to the potential supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [12]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress. In the medium and long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and the price elasticity is large when supply - side disturbance speculation materializes [17][18]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, with a change of - 15; the premium and discount changed by 169; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1212 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders showed resilience, and the distinction between peak and off - peak seasons in copper rod operating rates was not obvious. The spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of recycled copper rods in some areas declined, raising concerns about anode copper production in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 110, 110, and 100 respectively; the domestic alumina price decreased by 8 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, with imports from January to July providing an increment. August was a seasonal off - peak season for demand, with a slight improvement in the second half of the month. Inventory was expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount changed by - 10; the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90. Domestic social inventory oscillated upward, and LME inventory decreased by 625 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic TC was difficult to rise, while imported TC increased. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas demand was average with potential supply shortages [2][3]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai nickel increased by 2150; the spot import return increased by 542.75 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs, nickel - iron prices remained stable, and chromium - iron prices increased slightly. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable [7]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount increased by 10; LME inventory decreased by 1500 [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the production of recycled lead was at a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory was high, and the market's peak season was not prosperous [9]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot import return decreased by 268.20; LME inventory increased by 145 [12]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic smelters cut production, and overseas production faced constraints. On the demand side, solder demand had limited elasticity, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 105; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 53 [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' resumption of production was stable with an expected acceleration. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress, and in the medium and long term, there is over - capacity [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 1300; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1310 [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The market was affected by supply - side disturbances and downstream seasonal peak seasons. The monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and price elasticity is large [17][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] - Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. In the short term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. The internal - external positive spread can be held, and attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunity between months [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average, and attention can be continued to be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, it follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12] - Lead prices fluctuate this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level fluctuation next week [15] - Tin prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly; in the long - term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [17] - For industrial silicon, in the short term, there is a slight inventory reduction in August, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support under the current macro - sentiment [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. The downstream order support around 7.8 is verified this week. The spot market trading is okay, and attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in recycled rod production on refined copper consumption [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, demand is in the off - season in August with a possible improvement later. Aluminum exports improve, but photovoltaic and overseas demand decline. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC has difficulty rising, and imported TC increases. The smelting increment is further realized in August. Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a short - term supply shortage. Stocks: Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas L inventory decreases rapidly [5] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand: It is weak overall, and the premium is stable recently. Inventory: Domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [9] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills cut production passively. Demand: It is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking increases due to the macro - atmosphere. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decrease slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12] Lead - Supply: Scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead production is at a low level due to high costs. Demand: Battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market fails to reach the peak - season level. Inventory: Exchange inventory reaches a historical high of 70,000 tons [15] Tin - Supply: Domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. Demand: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. Inventory: Domestic inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a risk of short - squeeze [17] Industrial Silicon - Production: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' production recovery is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production increases slightly. Supply - demand: In August, there is a slight inventory reduction, and future supply - demand depends on the production recovery of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market: Affected by factors such as inventory reduction data, the market is strong. Supply - demand: Upstream enterprises are willing to sell, downstream procurement is for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trader transactions are more active [19]

1. Overall Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the non - ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with macro - factors and industry fundamentals jointly influencing metal prices. Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. - Copper prices may consolidate and await further macro - driven factors. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance. Lead prices are expected to be weak. Zinc prices have a large downward risk. Tin prices are expected to oscillate. Nickel prices have callback pressure. Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. Stainless steel prices will continue to consolidate in the short term. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, LME copper slightly declined by 0.08% to $9760/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79080 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 0.4 to 8.6 tons, LME inventory slightly increased to 15.6 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.3 to 24.2 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 0.5 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Copper prices may consolidate and wait for further macro - driven factors. This week, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 77800 - 80200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: SHFE aluminum's main contract rose 0.41% last week, while LME aluminum fell 0.46% to $2603/ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.4 tons to 58.8 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 0.7 to 10.5 tons, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.4 to 13.9 tons. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1.0 to 48.0 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. This week, the reference range for the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2520 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated upward, with the AD2511 contract rising 0.27% to 20165 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.1 to 4.9 tons, and the total of social and factory inventory slightly increased [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, despite strong cost support [5]. Lead - **Price Performance**: SHFE lead index rose 0.43% to 16849 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose $4 to $1987.5/ton [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons, SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6.18 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.17 tons [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry [7]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.15% to 22521 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $18.5 to $2835.5/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons, SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 2 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 7.75 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc prices have a large downward risk due to the continued over - supply situation in the medium - term industry [9]. Tin - **Price Performance**: On August 15, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266820 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 4 tons to 7426 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 175 tons to 1655 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10392 tons, an increase of 114 tons from the previous Friday [10]. - **Market Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate. The short - term reference range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin prices is 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: On Friday, SHFE nickel's main contract closed at 120600 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Nickel prices have callback pressure. The reference range for SHFE nickel's main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: On August 15, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 82832 yuan, up 18.62% for the week. The LC2511 contract closed at 86900 yuan, up 1.88% from the previous day and 12.92% for the week [14]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. The reference range for the main contract on the GZEE is 84300 - 90000 yuan/ton [14]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: On August 15, the alumina index fell 0.84% to 3195 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 1.41 tons to 6.58 tons [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. It is recommended to short at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: Stainless steel futures prices faced resistance in rising, and some product prices slightly declined [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous period, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.99% to 64.45 tons [18]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, down 0.04% to $9,670.5/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.03% to CNY 78,360/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. With weak overseas economic data and concerns about overseas demand, copper prices were generally weak. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights increased supply expectations. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the pressure of alumina surplus increased. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.14% to CNY 121,180/ton. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. Fundamentally, there were support from ferronickel and intermediate product prices below and demand suppression above, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The market focused on tariff negotiations between the US and other economies. There were concerns about US debt. Domestically, policies and anti - involution expectations were important trading considerations. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, Comex copper increased by 174 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons. During the off - season, terminal orders were insufficient, and processing plants' procurement was just for刚需 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures AO2509 closed at CNY 3,170/ton, down 2.28%, with an increase in positions.沪铝 AL2509 closed at CNY 20,670/ton, down 0.46%, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The price of ferronickel increased, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the de - stocking speed slowed down. The domestic inventory of primary nickel decreased slightly, and the output in August was expected to increase by 2% to 33,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 7, 2025, the price of flat - copper rose by CNY 155 to CNY 78,470/ton, and the premium rose by CNY 15. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by CNY 100 to CNY 73,100/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 10 to CNY 16,850/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 800 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased. The spot premium decreased by CNY 10 to - CNY 50/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,737 tons. The alumina inventory increased by 39,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 50 to CNY 123,250/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.9% to CNY 22,530/ton. The weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.3% to CNY 267,530/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 254 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. Aluminum may experience pressure and oscillation. Zinc's market rebound is likely to be limited. Lead may face pressure. Nickel and stainless - steel are in a state of adjustment. Tin is in a state of high - level shock. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Industrial silicon will return to fundamental - led trading. Polysilicon will oscillate within a wide range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Copper - **Price and Market Sentiment**: US trade policies and economic data have affected market sentiment. The US stock market decline has led to a return of copper prices. The market expects an 8 - month interest rate cut in the US, increasing the sentiment of interest - rate cut trading [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Shanghai copper has significantly reduced its positions. The social inventory has increased due to the arrival of domestic and imported copper, with general consumption and tight raw material quotes [1]. - **Overseas Supply**: LME copper inventory is at 13.95 million tons. A mine in Chile has suspended operations, and Japan's Mitsubishi may cut production due to tight TC [1]. - **Trend**: Copper prices may face resistance at the 60 - day moving average. LME copper may oscillate down to $3,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a historical high, with an increase in total inventory and an oversupply situation. The price of bauxite overseas is firm, limiting the downward space [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons, with limited supply elasticity [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has slightly decreased. Different aluminum products have different demand situations [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum has increased, and the spot is at a discount. The weekly output of aluminum rods has increased for two consecutive weeks [1]. - **Trend**: Aluminum ingots may face pressure and oscillation. Pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. The demand for aluminum rods is not overly pessimistic [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: The zinc market has returned to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The main contract of Shanghai zinc has fallen by 2.47%, and LME zinc has fallen by 3.52% [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME zinc inventory has increased to 100,800 tons. The term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. The TC has risen in August, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The demand in August is weak, but there is a possibility of policy support during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - **Trend**: The zinc market is mainly dominated by the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. Look for short - selling opportunities around 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market and Price**: The domestic lead inventory has continued to rise, and the price has fallen. The US dollar index has rebounded, and LME lead has also declined [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME lead inventory has increased to 276,000 tons. Some domestic smelters have maintenance plans [1]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of some areas has improved, but the impact of rainfall and tariffs on demand needs further verification [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead may oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan. Wait for inventory guidance [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market and Price**: The speculation of "anti - involution" has ended, and the market has returned to fundamentals. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel has decreased, while that of stainless steel has increased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The upstream price support has weakened. The inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai nickel is in the latter part of the rebound. Actively intervene in short positions [1]. Tin - **Market and Price**: The domestic and overseas tin prices have declined. The market is in a state of shock [1]. - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin production and sales have decreased. The market is concerned about the maintenance time of domestic large - scale factories [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic inventory has increased, and LME tin inventory has also increased [1]. - **Trend**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average. Hold high - level short positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market and Price**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and the panic in the market has increased. The trading volume has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The power orders have decreased, and the downstream battery factories are preparing for the peak season. The inventory has been transferred, and the downstream has increased replenishment [1]. - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures may fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market and Price**: The price of industrial silicon has adjusted by 15%, and the market has returned to fundamental - led trading [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The cost of the silicon - coal process has increased. The supply pressure still exists, and the social inventory has increased [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for industrial silicon has increased marginally. The production of an organic silicon factory has resumed [1]. - **Trend**: The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price will oscillate and adjust [1]. Polysilicon - **Market and Price**: The price of polysilicon has significantly adjusted. The market is more focused on cost accounting, and the expectation of capacity clearance has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase to 120,000 tons in August. The factory inventory has decreased, and the downstream has replenished in advance [1]. - **Demand**: The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise, and the battery - sheet orders have improved [1]. - **Trend**: The PS2509 main contract may oscillate widely between 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [1]. Group 4: Recommended Strategies - Hold short positions of silver futures from 288,000 - 270,000 yuan or enter new short positions at 270,000 yuan. The long - term fundamental trend suppresses high - level silver prices [1]. - Adopt a short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1].

Group 1 - Copper prices in London rose to a one-week high, with expectations of increased buying demand following recent price declines and higher risk appetite among investors [1] - The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by $69 or 0.72% to $9,736 per ton, marking the highest price since July 10, with a weekly increase of over 0.5% [1] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in copper prices, with the main contract increasing by 510 yuan or 0.65% to 78,410 yuan per ton, although the weekly performance still showed a decline of 0.28% [1] - Other metals on the LME also experienced price increases, with tin rising by 0.68% to $33,240 per ton, zinc by 0.42% to $2,748.5 per ton, and lead by 0.2% to $1,977 per ton [2] - The Shanghai metal market showed significant gains in tin, zinc, and nickel, with tin rising by 2,800 yuan or 1.07% to 264,540 yuan per ton, and nickel increasing by 870 yuan or 0.73% to 120,500 yuan per ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap substitution, but there is strong support below and a significant drop requires a macro black - swan event with a low probability [1]. - Aluminum supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc short - selling allocation remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [4]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and there may be a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17200 due to macro influences [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long - term [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production, and the market expectation has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long - term if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not significantly decline. In the short - term, supply is expected to continue to be in surplus, causing inventory accumulation and upward pressure on prices [13]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [15]. - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term as the fundamentals remain weak [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium decreased by 5, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 236, the SHFE inventory increased by 3039, and the SHFE copper warrant decreased by 1796 [1]. - **Market Situation**: This week, copper prices showed an inverted V - shaped trend. Macro data was inconsistent, and the interest - rate cut expectation was unstable. Domestically, inventory accumulated, the off - season led to a decline in the operating rate, and the scrap - refined substitution effect weakened. There is an expectation of medium - level inventory accumulation from July to August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price increased by 3, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory increased by 0.6 (from 42.2 to 42.8). The SHFE aluminum exchange inventory increased by 342 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium increased by 20, the SHFE zinc social inventory increased by 0.00, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory increased by 1731 [2]. - **Market Situation**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase in July, demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas, domestic social inventory is increasing, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May [4]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium decreased by 10, the SHFE lead social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead exchange inventory increased by 1374 [6]. - **Market Situation**: This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues include weak scrap battery supply and tight TC. Demand - side battery inventory is high, and there is a trading expectation for the peak season. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the spot import gain decreased by 116.47, the spot export gain increased by 216.84, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 55 [8]. - **Market Situation**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long - term [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 30, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 70, and the number of warrants decreased by 153 [13]. - **Market Situation**: The leading enterprise continued to cut production, and the market expectation has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. It is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 200, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 200, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 1844 [13]. - **Market Situation**: This week, lithium carbonate prices rose due to the "anti - involution" policy. There was overall inventory accumulation this week. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not significantly decline [13]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the 1.5% Philippine nickel ore price decreased by 0.5, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 950, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1158 [15]. - **Market Situation**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreased slightly. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 30 to July 4, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 25, and the 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Supply has been partially reduced since late May, demand is mainly for essential needs, costs are stable, and inventory has slightly increased in Xijiao and Foshan. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Zinc - The zinc market is in a long - term supply - side easing cycle. If the mine - end growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, after the "rush to export", if the tariff policy leads to insufficient terminal consumption resilience, the center of zinc prices may move down. In the long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, focusing on the TC growth rate and marginal changes in downstream demand. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 21500 [2]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectation restricts the upside space. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand has advanced subsequent demand, and the real demand side may face pressure in Q3. The US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable. The main contract is expected to move between 77000 - 79500 [5]. Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Considering the pessimistic demand expectation, pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm. A short - selling approach is recommended at 260,000 - 265,000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is under continuous pressure from industrial overcapacity and weak consumption. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range. The main contract is expected to move between 118000 - 124000. Pay attention to the short - term disturbances from news [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak state. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamentals are still under pressure. Pay attention to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm. The main contract is expected to move between 12400 - 13000 [12]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose. The medium - term support is around the cash cost of 2700. For electrolytic aluminum, the LME inventory decline and low domestic inventory support aluminum prices, with the support level around 20000. However, there is still a possibility of adjustment under the conditions of LME warehousing, domestic inventory accumulation, and weakening demand [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still under pressure. In June, there may be an oversupply situation. The market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract expected to move between 56000 - 62000. Pay attention to the upstream dynamics [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 585 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.32 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; imports were 2.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.76%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 58.60%, 55.12%, and 59.00% respectively. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.24% to 7.96 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.60% to 12.7 million tons [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.36% to 78400 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 1206 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.06 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%; imports were 25.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was 75.82%, and that of recycled copper rod production was 29.03%. The domestic social inventory increased by 0.76% to 14.59 million tons, the bonded - area inventory increased by 7.71% to 6.43 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11% to 10.08 million tons, the LME inventory decreased by 3.99% to 9.92 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.78% to 19.99 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.42% to 263300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 452.13% to 80.99 US dollars/ton. The import loss was - 10123 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.12 [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%; refined tin imports were 2076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04%; exports were 1770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate was 61.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 120625 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 193 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 2926 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [9]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.16% to 120887 yuan/ton. The battery - grade nickel sulfate average price decreased by 0.67% to 27400 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; imports were 8832 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.30% to 25693 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.02% to 39383 tons, the LME inventory increased by 0.76% to 205140 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.44% to 699972 tons [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.78% to 12700 yuan/ton. The basis difference increased by 23.73% to 365 yuan/ton [12]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remained unchanged at 60 US dollars/wet ton, and the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.32% to 921 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 179.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.64% to 53.42 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.83% to 33.02 million tons [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.24% to 20720 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 180 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.79% to 3750 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, etc. showed different degrees of change. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.39% to 44.90 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 34.5 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.08% to 60400 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 447.37% to 1040 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%; demand was 83960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.49% to 97637 tons [15].

有色金属日报 2025-6-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价冲高回落，伦铜微跌 0.24%至 9647 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78350 元/吨。产业层面， 上周三大交易所库存环比减少 1.8 万吨，中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 10.2 万吨，LME 库存减少 1.8 至 11.4 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.6 至 17.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增 ...