Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward bias, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss. The US market was closed for Thanksgiving, reducing its guiding role. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the US economic activity has nearly stalled recently, the job market continues to weaken, and inflationary pressures persist, posing challenges to monetary policy. LME copper inventory increased by 675 tons to 157,175 tons, Comex copper inventory remained at 378,904 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, and BC copper decreased by 300 tons to 5,502 tons. The demand for copper showed a slow recovery as downstream acceptance improved despite high prices. The stabilization of domestic and international stock markets and a significant increase in the annual long - term copper contract price pushed up the copper price. However, the "inventory dam" will still limit the upside of copper prices this year. It is recommended to monitor the performance of copper prices at high levels, maintain the view of high - level fluctuations for now, but be aware that an effective upward breakthrough may lead to a new round of volatility increase and bullish sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated with an upward bias, with AO2601 closing at 2,730 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase, and open interest increasing by 3,459 lots to 359,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, with AL2601 closing at 21,480 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease, and open interest increasing by 223 lots to 257,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract AD2601 closing at 20,715 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 182 lots to 5,334 lots. In the spot market, the SMM alumina price dropped to 2,831 yuan/ton, the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 20 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 quotation rebounded to 21,380 yuan/ton, at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Wuxi A00 price. Aluminum rod processing fees remained stable in many places, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, and Wuxi decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods in Yunnan increased by 75 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections have started in the north, mainly targeting the mining end. Some northern alumina plants have undergone phased maintenance, but there has been no large - scale production cut. The warehouse capacity in Xinjiang is approaching full, and the social inventory of alumina has been slightly relieved. Downstream raw material inventory backlogs continue to put pressure on prices. As the expectation of US interest rate cuts declines, the macro - sentiment has become more cautious. The decline in the aluminum price center and the temporary lifting of environmental production restrictions in Henan have led to the partial resumption of processing production lines, increasing the outbound volume of aluminum ingots. The initial tightness in Xinjiang's shipments and the limited decline in molten aluminum have helped the aluminum ingot inventory continue to decline slightly, providing short - term support for the aluminum price, but there is still an upper limit [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.03% to $14,840/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.21% to 117,160 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 930 tons to 255,450 tons, and SHFE warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The benchmark price of nickel ore decreased slightly, but the premium remained relatively stable. In the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain, the transaction price center of nickel - iron has shifted downwards, weakening the raw material support. The weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market is sluggish. In the new energy industry chain, the tight supply of raw materials provides a bottom - support, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more apparent. Considering the cost of producing electrowon nickel from SMM's integrated MHP at 110,000 yuan/ton as support, one may consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 27, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 87,035 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan from the previous day; the flat - copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 78,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was 2,854 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; the price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 83,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 156,500 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,620 tons to 378,900 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 28.1 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading remained at 45.5 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan to - 1,210.4 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: On November 27, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,960 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 1 lead ingot premium in East China remained at - 60 yuan; the price difference between the first and second - month contracts of Shanghai lead remained at 0; the price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included recycled lead (≥pb98.5) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The arrival price of 50% lead concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 264,975 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 1,159 tons to 27,495 tons, and the SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,921 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit was 68 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Aluminum**: On November 27, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Nanhai aluminum price was 21,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference was - 70 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 615 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 655 yuan/ton; the FOB price of alumina remained at 320 dollars/ton; the price of Shandong alumina remained at 2,775 yuan/ton; the price difference between domestic and foreign alumina remained at 213 yuan; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at 6,717 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan to 410 yuan/ton, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained at 350 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained at 21,350 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 541,725 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 76 tons to 66,909 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 8,817 tons to 123,716 tons, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.7 million tons to 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory (weekly) increased by 0.1 million tons to 14.1 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,786 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Nickel**: On November 27, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 121,300 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi nickel was 4,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between 1 imported nickel and Wuxi nickel was 650 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at 3,300 yuan/ton; the price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at 465 yuan/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by 1 yuan to 652 yuan/ton; the price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi remained at 12,150 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B stainless steel coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged; the price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) was 32,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of domestic 523 - series and 622 - series precursors decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 254,520 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons, the SHFE nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 778 tons to 39,795 tons, SHFE stainless - steel warrants decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons, the social nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 855 tons to 52,259 tons, and the social stainless - steel inventory (Foshan + Wuxi) decreased by 12 tons to 940 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 85 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,937 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 22,475 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the LmeS3 price was 2,505.5 dollars/ton, up 0.0%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.97; the near - far month price difference was - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the SMM 0 spot price was 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the SMM 1 spot price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the domestic spot average premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the imported zinc average premium was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 2.5 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 was 23,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc alloy Zamak5 was 23,675 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) remained at 21,500 yuan/ton. The weekly TC of 50% domestic zinc concentrate remained at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and that of 50% imported zinc concentrate remained at 240 dollars/dry ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, the LME inventory remained at 49,925 tons, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.13 million tons to 14.04 million tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 525 tons to 44,425 tons, and the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan from the previous day [7]. - **Tin**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 300,440 yuan/ton, up 1.5%; the LmeS3 price was 27,540 dollars/ton, down 2.1%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 10.91; the near - far month price difference was - 360 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the SMM spot price was 301,800 yuan/ton, up 6,600 yuan; the price of 60% tin concentrate was 287,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the price of 40% tin concentrate was 283,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the domestic spot average premium remained at 200 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 50 dollars/ton to 185 dollars/ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 29 tons to 6,229 tons, the LME inventory remained at 3,125 tons, the SHFE registered warrants increased by 34 tons to 6,219 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 65 tons to 2,780 tons, the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 29,136 yuan from the previous day, and the tariff was 3% [7]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the price differences between the first and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][19][20] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 3. Introduction to the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the current director of non - ferrous

Group 1: Overall Information - The research report is from the Non - ferrous Team of the Research Center on November 27, 2025, covering copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices rose first and then fell slightly. Downstream consumption has been weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts for copper downstream is ongoing. The LME copper had concentrated warehousing, suppressing the Cash - 3M spread. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the scrap copper subsidy policy in Jiangxi has loosened slightly. The downstream's willingness to place orders rebounds around 85,000 yuan, which may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] - The changes from November 20 to November 26 include a 5 - unit increase in spot premium, a 70 - unit increase in scrap - refined copper price difference, a 74.73 - unit increase in spot import profit, an 86.48 - unit increase in three - month import profit, a 425 - unit increase in LME cancelled warrants, and a 75 - unit decrease in LME inventory [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices continued to decline, and aluminum ingot inventories remained flat. Aluminum rods, sheets, strips, and foils saw slight inventory reduction. Downstream consumption is okay, and the acceptance of high prices has increased. In the short term, it may show a volatile trend. Overseas and domestic production capacities are gradually being put into operation. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] - From November 20 to November 26, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices decreased by 40, 40, and 30 respectively. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2000, and the aluminum LME cancelled warrants decreased by 2000 [1][25] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The new production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots started in November, with a monthly output of about 8,000 - 10,000 tons. In December, the maintenance of most smelters is expected to reduce production by more than 10,000 tons. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity, and the positive arbitrage opportunity for 01 - 03 [5] - From November 20 to November 26, the Shanghai zinc ingot price remained unchanged, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 20, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 10, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1925, and the LME zinc cancelled warrants increased by 2450 [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, the price of nickel sulfate is relatively firm, and the output of pure nickel has decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is generally weak. After the price decline, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has strengthened slightly. Both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals are weak. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [8] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 950, the Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 200, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 100, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1038, and the LME nickel cancelled warrants increased by 630 [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the production schedule of steel mills in October increased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory is at a high level. Fundamentally, it remains weak. The Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [10] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25 [10] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fell, and the sales situation improved. On the supply side, the recovery of recycling profits has stimulated resumption of production, and the production of primary lead remains at a high level. The supply is loose. On the demand side, the battery production rate remained flat this week, and the monthly battery inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the social inventory has started to increase. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, ranging from 17,100 to 17,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries [11][13] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot premium decreased by 10, the spot import profit increased by 61.97, the futures import profit increased by 52.91, the LME lead inventory increased by 400, and the LME lead cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [11] Group 8: Tin - This week, the center of tin prices rose. On the supply side, the processing fee at the ore end remains low, and the rebound space is limited. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. There are still differences in the output overseas. In the short term, the fundamentals are okay, mainly following the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will mainly show restorative growth with limited elasticity, and the demand will determine the upside space. It is recommended to hold at low prices close to the cost line or use it as a long - position in non - ferrous metals [16] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot import profit decreased by 4181.61, the spot export profit increased by 3654.24, the LME tin inventory increased by 40, and the LME tin cancelled warrants increased by 105 [16] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, while some factories in Inner Mongolia and Gansu resumed production. In late November, Sichuan and Yunnan may reduce production by about 20 units. In Q4, the supply - demand of industrial silicon is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operating rate is low. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [19] - From November 20 to November 26, the 421 Yunnan basis, 421 Sichuan basis, 553 East China basis, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 60, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 289 [19] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - Affected by the expected lithium - battery demand and market sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong before. After the exchange adjusted the transaction handling fee and trading limit, the market sentiment declined significantly. The resumption of production of mines in Jiangxi also affected the market. The raw material supply is still tight, and the profit margin of the smelting end is small. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and downstream inquiries have decreased. After the price decline, some downstream enterprises have started post - point - pricing. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [21] - From November 20 to November 26, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price both increased by 750, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 435 [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The downward pressure on the domestic supply side has eased. The price is likely to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the price may fluctuate and recover. In the medium term, the supply glut restricts the upside potential, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy - driven factors are difficult to have an immediate impact. The cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The market is likely to face inventory accumulation pressure in November, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market may maintain a weak and oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to remain in a high - level range oscillation, maintaining a forward market structure. For trading strategies, consider going long around 50,000 yuan/ton in the futures market and holding or closing profitable positions for sell put options in the options market [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.76% to 293,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71% to 95.67 dollars/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6,229 tons, while social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7,654 tons [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.27% to 22,380 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 4,280 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the export volume increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58% to 15.10 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% to 4.7 million tons [7]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49% to 86,235 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 858 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80% to 70.49 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.09% to 11.06 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.90% to 117,750 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 3.57% to 4,350 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.84% to 110,810 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39,795 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.18% to 253,482 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.76% to 235 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.89% to 49.29 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 0.83% to 6.44 million tons [15]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.09% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 1,868 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11% to 61.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% to 54.6 million tons [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton, and the Foshan broken primary aluminum scrap - to - refined spread remained unchanged at 1,749 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: The regenerated aluminum alloy weekly social inventory increased by 1.44% to 5.65 million tons [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100% to 0 [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.80 million tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.02% to 20.76 million tons [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.16% to 92,150 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 1.65% to 1,071 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons in October [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The N - type polysilicon spot price decreased by 0.10% to 52,250 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract decreased by 0.08% to 23,315 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12% to 2.71 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons in October [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50% to 27.10 million tons, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 3.07% to 7,270 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Without sudden events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating market with relatively low volatility. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory performance. The global visible inventory is in an overall accumulation state, close to recent high levels. The high copper price has a restraining effect on terminal copper use, and the "inventory dam" may restrict future copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated strongly overnight, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly. The fundamentals support is below the aluminum price. The environmental protection restrictions in the northern region and the high price have an obvious suppressing effect on demand. The aluminum ingot destocking is blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continues to decline. The upward momentum of aluminum alloy is more sufficient, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow [1][2]. - Nickel: The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more obvious. Although the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased slightly recently, the overall digestion is still difficult, which exerts great pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to whether there is support at 115,000 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against macro - disturbances, possible production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, domestic and foreign copper prices oscillated weakly. The instability of domestic and foreign stock markets reduces the confidence in a sharp rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is in an accumulation state and close to recent high levels. The high copper price restricts terminal copper use, and the inventory may restrict future copper prices. In the absence of sudden events, copper prices will show high - level oscillations with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina oscillated strongly, with AO2601 closing at 2,737 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and the position decreased by 420 lots to 412,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with AL2512 closing at 21,550 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease, and the position decreased by 5,342 lots to 333,000 lots. The aluminum alloy also oscillated weakly. The fundamentals and market conditions show complex trends [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to 14,455 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.92% to 115,010 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the price of nickel ore and nickel - iron also showed corresponding changes. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is significant, and it is necessary to pay attention to support levels and various influencing factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 20, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,395 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan from the previous day. The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE showed different changes, with LME and COMEX inventories increasing and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreasing [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The inventory of the previous period increased by 4,208 tons on a weekly basis, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 650 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi quotation was 21,570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the South China quotation was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The inventory of the previous period increased by 1,564 tons on a weekly basis, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 76 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The inventory of LME and SHFE decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price was 22,415 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of the previous period increased by 793 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory decreased by 0.22 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price was 293,470 yuan/ton, a 0.4% increase. The inventory of the previous period increased by 266 tons on a weekly basis [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November 2025 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the demand will further decrease, and the pressure to accumulate inventory will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can be gradually closed at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has fallen. The component price is gradually rising slowly. The market is currently in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short - term, the polysilicon production is still relatively high under the background of the decline in downstream production schedules. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price, the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand orders, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of November contracts [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand balance, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The northern spot market is showing signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is adjusted downward after breaking through 22,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a characteristic of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. In the short term, the price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to downstream start - up rates, inventory changes, and overseas policies [3][4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, while the demand in the East China region is still sluggish. Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained, and previous long positions can be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have changed little, and the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated. The supply is abundant, but the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has not exceeded expectations, and the inventory of finished products in the primary processing industries has been accumulating. The LME inventory has started to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze has eased. The zinc ingot export window has been opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and a significant upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand [9]. Copper - The copper price fluctuated weakly. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has decreased. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper has gradually increased. The terminal demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures fluctuated at a low level, and the market sentiment was still weak. Macro - level factors have put pressure on the market, and the Indonesian government has restricted new investments in nickel smelters. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the spot trading of refined nickel is fair. The nickel ore market is waiting and watching, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel futures fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market inventory digestion speed needs to be improved. The macro - drive is insufficient, the nickel ore price is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply side still has pressure, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were generally strong. The fundamentals are in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The production has increased, and the downstream demand is optimistic with inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after November. The price of lithium ore has risen, and the willingness of miners to sell has increased. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, and the basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in November, with different production trends in different regions. The开工率 also showed different trends, and the production of related downstream products such as organic silicon and polysilicon also changed [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and the social inventory and warehouse receipt inventory all changed to varying degrees [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fell. The price of components gradually increased [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The monthly and weekly production, import, and export data of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum and alumina changed slightly, and the spread and import and export profitability also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and the import and export volume of electrolytic aluminum also changed. The开工率 of different aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin was stable, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of refined tin increased in October. The开工率 of refined tin production also increased significantly [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of tin in different regions and the social inventory all changed to varying degrees [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the import and export profitability and monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased, and the export increased. The开工率 of different zinc processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of zinc in different regions changed [9]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the basis, import and export profitability, and monthly spread changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import of electrolytic copper decreased in October. The开工率 of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of copper in different regions changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the import and export profitability and monthly spread changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of refined nickel increased slightly in October, and the import increased significantly. The inventory of nickel in different regions changed [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis and monthly spread changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly in October, the import increased, and the export decreased. The inventory of stainless steel in different regions changed [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the basis and monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The capacity and开工率 also changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue at a low level. The improvement in tin ore supply is expected to be limited this year, with the supply side remaining strong. - In the demand side, tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more obviously suppressed. - Considering the strong fundamentals, after the market sentiment stabilizes, consider a low - buying strategy. Follow up on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [5]. Zinc - The fundamentals change little, with the Shanghai zinc market oscillating. The supply - loosening logic has basically materialized, and the supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. - The demand side shows no unexpected performance. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. - The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a squeeze on LME is alleviated. In the future, the fundamentals may provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc, and it may oscillate in the short term [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a supply - demand surplus, with the price in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the production - cut trends of high - cost enterprises. - The Shanghai aluminum market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [9]. Copper - The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price oscillates. The macro - situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the subsequent interest - rate cut expectation is unclear. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream has a high psychological price limit for copper. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts following the aluminum price. The cost - side support is significant, and the supply is restricted by raw materials. - The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak. In the short term, the ADC12 price will remain strong, and follow up on changes in raw material supply and demand [12]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market breaks downward, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Funds are using nickel for short - hedging. - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high at low prices, but the overall fundamentals improve slightly, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with few inquiries and limited transactions. The macro - drive is insufficient, and the supply - side pressure remains, while the demand is weak. - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and follow up on steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillates at a relatively high level. The weekly production shows a small increase, and the downstream demand is optimistic, with social inventory decreasing. - In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate, and follow up on the resumption of production by large enterprises and changes in demand [18]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is partially reduced, and the futures price oscillates. If the silicone industry reduces production, the inventory - accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. - The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the price fluctuating between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, but the demand is weak, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory - accumulation expectations in each link. - The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and pay attention to the support from the spot market and the digestion of warehouse receipts [21]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin both decreased by - 0.17%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 14.29%. The import loss decreased by 3.34%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the import of tin ore decreased by - 15.13%. In October, the production of SMM refined tin increased by 53.09%, and the average operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHEF inventory weekly increased by 4.44%, and the social inventory increased by 5.83% [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by - 0.36%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads increased [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of refined zinc increased by 2.85%. In September, the import decreased by - 11.61%, and the export increased by 696.78%. The operating rates of some processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by - 1.88%, and the LME inventory increased by 8.88% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by - 0.79%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39%, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52%. The import and export of electrolytic aluminum also increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.03%, and the LME inventory decreased by - 0.39% [9]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by - 0.58%, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by - 16.58%. The import loss decreased [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased by - 2.62%, and in September, the import increased by 26.50%. The operating rates of copper rod production increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased by - 1.07%, and the LME inventory increased by 3.27% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by - 0.46%, and some refined - scrap spreads decreased [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the export decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 0.18%, and the daily inventories in some regions changed slightly [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by - 1.47%, and the import loss decreased. The cost of some production methods of electrowon nickel changed [14]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel in China increased by 0.84%, and the import increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 9.11%, and the social inventory increased by 8.10% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40%, and the price of some raw materials decreased slightly. Some monthly spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38%, and in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. The import of stainless steel increased, and the export decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.73%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.53% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.45%, and the price of some lithium - related raw materials increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70%. The import decreased by - 10.30%, and the export decreased by - 59.12% [18]. - **Inventory**: In October, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by - 10.90%, and the downstream inventory decreased by - 13.50% [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national production of industrial silicon increased by 7.46%, and the production in some regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased slightly, and the production of polysilicon increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by - 1.09%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by - 1.41% [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased by - 0.85%. Some monthly spreads increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased by - 0.74%, and the monthly production increased by 3.08%. The import increased, and the export and net - export decreased [21]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 5.14% [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's reopening, stock market and geopolitical situations, and Fed officials' hawkish speeches. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors [5][9][11] Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: The equity market is weak, copper prices oscillate and decline. LME copper inventory increases, domestic warehouse receipts increase, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreases. The domestic copper spot import loss narrows, and the refined - scrap price difference narrows [4] - **Strategy View**: Although there are some negative factors in the sentiment, the copper raw material supply is tight, and the spot situation improves marginally after the price decline. The copper price has strong support. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 85400 - 86800 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10600 - 10850 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The market sentiment is weak, and aluminum prices continue to decline. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreases significantly, and the domestic and foreign inventories change slightly. The spot discount in the domestic market decreases, and the trading improves [6] - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively volatile, and the overseas inventory is still at a low level. The aluminum price has strong support. If the domestic inventory can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price is expected to strengthen after oscillating. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21450 - 21700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2760 - 2810 dollars/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index and LME lead price both decline. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory decreases slightly [8] - **Strategy View**: The lead raw material is still in short supply. The domestic lead ingot social inventory accumulates marginally. The lead price is in a weak oscillation state [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index and LME zinc price decline. The domestic social inventory decreases slightly, and the LME zinc warehouse receipts increase slowly [10] - **Strategy View**: The zinc raw material is in short supply, the zinc ingot supply decreases marginally, and the domestic social inventory accumulation slows down. The LME zinc spread decreases marginally. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price declines. The upstream tin concentrate price decreases, and the smelting plant operating rate recovers but is still at a low level due to raw material supply shortages. The demand in emerging fields provides support [12] - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 285000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 37000 - 39000 dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price is weak. The nickel ore price is stable and weak, and the nickel iron price accelerates its decline [15] - **Strategy View**: The recent nickel price decline is due to fundamental pressures. The short - term decline space is limited, but the risk of negative feedback from nickel ore price decline should be guarded against. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions lightly if the nickel iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 120000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14500 - 15000 dollars/ton [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rises, but the futures contract price declines [19] - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a state of intense game. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium battery materials and cells, the changes in the main positions, and the equity market atmosphere. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 91000 - 95200 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declines, and the overseas import loss exists [22] - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. However, the price is close to the cost line, and the short - term reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price declines, the spot price is stable, and the social inventory increases [25] - **Strategy View**: The market supply is in surplus, the demand is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy declines, the position decreases, and the inventory decreases slightly [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, and the demand is average. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short term [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated higher, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The Fed Chair cooled the December interest - rate cut expectation, showing increasing internal differences. The US House will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventories remained at 136,250 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,156 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,124 tons, and BC copper warrants increased by 575 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME is seeking opinions on new rules. Short - term outlook is somewhat optimistic, but overall, it may show a high - level震荡 market as the off - season approaches [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated stronger. Alumina factory profits are being compressed, with occasional production cuts but no large - scale reduction for long - term supply. Alumina inventories are increasing. The internal and external market situations are different. The US interest - rate cut expectation is rising, while the domestic demand is weakening and the processing end is facing environmental restrictions. Electrolytic aluminum is in a multi - factor situation, likely to continue high - level adjustment in the short term. Aluminum alloy follows the adjustment [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME nickel inventories decreased by 144 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 32,694 tons. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain is weak, with nickel - iron prices falling and stainless - steel inventories rising slightly. In the new - energy industry chain, the discount coefficient increased slightly, but the production of ternary precursors decreased in November. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious, and the price may fluctuate, with attention to inventory changes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed macro factors, inventory changes, demand, policy, and market sentiment, concluding that short - term is somewhat optimistic but overall may be a high - level震荡 market [1]. - **Aluminum**: Discussed price trends, factory profits, inventory, and market differences at home and abroad, suggesting short - term high - level adjustment [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Considered price changes, inventory, and industry chain situations, indicating price fluctuations due to inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price changes of various copper products, inventory changes in different markets, and other data such as import and export profits [4]. - **Lead**: Showed price changes of lead products, inventory changes, and import and export profits [4]. - **Aluminum**: Presented price, raw material, inventory, and import and export profit data of aluminum and related products [5]. - **Nickel**: Included price changes of nickel products, inventory changes, and industry chain product price data [5]. - **Zinc**: Gave price, inventory, and processing fee data of zinc and related products [7]. - **Tin**: Provided price, inventory, and import and export profit data of tin and related products [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Presented spot premium charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][16]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Showed SHFE near - far month spread charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][22][24]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Displayed LME inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Presented SHFE inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Showed social inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Displayed charts of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [50][51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market has cooled down after a surge and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum and alumina market shows significant divergence, with the overall trend being macro - led and oscillating slightly stronger. The zinc market presents opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is short - term bull - bear balanced and oscillating in a certain range. The nickel and stainless steel market is under fundamental pressure. The tin market may be in a short - term tight situation but is expected to decline in the long run. The lithium carbonate market is in a state of strong supply and demand, with short - term strong oscillations. The industrial silicon market has weak supply and demand but may oscillate slightly stronger. The polysilicon market is mainly influenced by policy expectations and will continue to oscillate [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price and Sentiment**: Copper prices declined and oscillated last week after hitting a high. The market is more sensitive to demand changes after digesting supply - side news. The probability of interest rate cuts in the UK has increased, and the domestic October household appliance export volume has turned negative [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and the expected production increase in December is limited. The downstream acceptance of high tin prices is better than in Q2 last year, and the inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Codelco lowered its annual production guidance, and some overseas mines have resumed production [1]. - **Trend**: The copper market is dominated by funds. The upward momentum has decreased. It is recommended to observe or conduct option trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is running weakly, with the lower limit pointing to the low point in the first half of the year [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable. There are new domestic production capacity plans, and overseas production capacity is expected to resume in 11 - 12 months [1]. - **Demand**: The domestic downstream processing leading enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The spot premium and discount fluctuated within a narrow range [1]. - **Trend**: The market is macro - led and oscillating slightly stronger, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and the market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - **Trend**: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market is strong, supporting the domestic market. The domestic market is testing the pressure level [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory has stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure, with an increasing expectation of production reduction. There are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption is weak, mainly for rigid procurement. Traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - **Trend**: It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - **Market**: The LME lead inventory has been decreasing, and the external market is rebounding, supporting the domestic market. The long - short confrontation in the domestic market is intense [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the supply of lead concentrate is in short supply. The profit of smelters is good, and the supply is expected to increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The demand is improving, with good performance in energy - storage batteries and automobile batteries [1]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan/ton in the short term, and it is recommended to participate in short - term long positions at low prices [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: The nickel and stainless steel markets were oscillating at a low level last week, with light trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The non - ferrous market is strong externally, but the nickel industry is restricted by over - supply, and the market is sluggish [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly. The support of upstream price rebound is weakening [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel market is running weakly [1]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price continued to oscillate last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of overseas mines is generally stable [1]. - **Consumption**: There are no obvious bright spots in consumption [1]. - **Trend**: The tin market may be tight in the first half of November, but it is expected to decline in the long run. It is recommended to consider short - selling [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, with active trading and significant capital inflow [1]. - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan, and the price of industrial grade is 200 yuan/ton. The supply adjustment supports the price [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are actively increasing production, and the battery factory orders are increasing [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased, and the mine - end quotation strengthened [1]. - **Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price rose above 9,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased slightly [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The production of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the supply of organic silicon has increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased, with a significant decrease in the delivery warehouse [1]. - **Trend**: The market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are both weak. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is decreasing, and the terminal installation is at a low level [1]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of polysilicon decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, mainly influenced by production capacity regulation expectations [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]